Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#27
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#34
Pace71.9#124
Improvement-0.5#219

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#23
First Shot+6.5#33
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#62
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#22
Freethrows+1.2#113
Improvement+0.1#170

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#43
First Shot+2.4#94
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#32
Layups/Dunks+4.9#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#301
Freethrows+1.5#97
Improvement-0.6#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.4% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 4.8% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 15.5% 19.5% 8.7%
Top 6 Seed 34.5% 40.8% 23.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.8% 79.2% 62.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.3% 78.6% 61.5%
Average Seed 6.7 6.4 7.3
.500 or above 91.1% 95.0% 84.6%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 72.2% 60.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four5.9% 5.1% 7.2%
First Round70.1% 76.7% 58.7%
Second Round46.2% 52.2% 36.0%
Sweet Sixteen19.4% 23.0% 13.4%
Elite Eight7.6% 9.1% 5.1%
Final Four3.1% 3.7% 1.9%
Championship Game1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: TCU (Neutral) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 10
Quad 26 - 211 - 12
Quad 34 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 219 Campbell W 96-64 96%     1 - 0 +25.3 +18.4 +6.4
  Fri, Nov 7 280 Northern Illinois W 97-72 97%     2 - 0 +15.5 +13.8 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 11 277 Ball St. W 86-55 97%     3 - 0 +21.7 +11.4 +11.0
  Mon, Nov 17 204 SIU Edwardsville W 94-69 96%     4 - 0 +19.1 +26.0 -5.5
  Fri, Nov 21 7 BYU L 70-98 30%     4 - 1 -8.5 +1.4 -8.2
  Thu, Nov 27 75 Providence W 104-83 73%     5 - 1 +28.6 +18.3 +7.3
  Fri, Nov 28 51 TCU W 77-73 63%    
  Wed, Dec 3 56 Northwestern W 79-72 76%    
  Sat, Dec 6 73 Marquette W 84-75 81%    
  Wed, Dec 10 43 @Nebraska L 79-80 47%    
  Fri, Dec 19 41 Villanova W 73-71 57%    
  Mon, Dec 22 305 Central Michigan W 88-63 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 208 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 89-69 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 3 Purdue L 74-79 32%    
  Tue, Jan 6 32 UCLA W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan L 72-87 9%    
  Tue, Jan 13 103 @Minnesota W 73-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 120 Rutgers W 81-67 90%    
  Thu, Jan 22 100 @Penn St. W 80-74 71%    
  Sun, Jan 25 31 USC W 83-79 63%    
  Wed, Jan 28 103 Minnesota W 76-64 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 20 Ohio St. W 80-78 56%    
  Sat, Feb 7 22 @Indiana L 75-79 36%    
  Tue, Feb 10 13 @Illinois L 78-85 27%    
  Fri, Feb 13 12 Michigan St. L 73-74 46%    
  Tue, Feb 17 20 @Ohio St. L 77-81 35%    
  Sun, Feb 22 21 Iowa W 75-73 56%    
  Wed, Feb 25 80 @Oregon W 79-75 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 48 @Washington W 77-76 51%    
  Wed, Mar 4 93 Maryland W 83-72 84%    
  Sat, Mar 7 3 @Purdue L 71-82 17%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.3 0.6 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 8.1 4th
5th 0.4 2.8 4.3 1.4 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 4.6 2.5 0.2 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.2 1.0 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 4.8 1.8 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.1 2.7 0.3 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 5.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.2 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.6 5.6 8.6 11.2 13.1 13.5 12.7 11.1 7.9 5.0 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 78.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 44.1% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
16-4 19.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 2.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.8% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 2.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.0% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 3.6 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.9% 100.0% 5.1% 94.8% 4.6 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.1% 99.7% 2.8% 96.8% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.0 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 12.7% 98.4% 1.1% 97.3% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 98.4%
11-9 13.5% 93.8% 0.8% 93.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 3.3 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.8 93.8%
10-10 13.1% 82.1% 0.6% 81.6% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.4 2.8 2.2 1.1 0.0 2.3 82.0%
9-11 11.2% 55.7% 0.3% 55.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.3 0.1 5.0 55.5%
8-12 8.6% 22.1% 0.1% 22.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.7 22.0%
7-13 5.6% 4.7% 0.1% 4.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 4.6%
6-14 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 3.6 0.4%
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 72.8% 2.0% 70.8% 6.7 1.0 2.5 5.1 7.0 8.8 10.1 10.1 9.0 7.9 5.9 5.1 0.3 0.0 27.2 72.3%