Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.0 #39
Expected Predictive Rating +14.8 #36
Pace 73.0 #77
Improvement +1.4 #110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #39 A- C+ A+ B+ B
Defense #46 B- A C C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 1.30 #58 +0.8 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #339 0.96 #14 -2.3 #293
Three Pointers 53% #11 1.08 #102 +7.8 #10
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #37 +6.3 #38
Freethrows 20.2 #51 75% #111 15.1 #47
Second Chance 30.0% #207 1.16 #56 0.35 #118
Turnovers 12.8% #12
Total Offense +7.6 #39

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.04 #46 +3.1 #81
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #62 0.88 #331 -3.2 #354
Three Pointers 38% #261 0.93 #81 +3.1 #66
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #87 +2.9 #87
Freethrows 16.7 #150 70% #80 11.7 #233
Second Chance 21.7% #5 1.08 #243 0.23 #20
Turnovers 16.6% #188
Total Defense +5.5 #46

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #64 -1.3% #77
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.1% #40 -4.6% #93
Possession Length 14.9 #20 18.1 #298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #63 0.12 #34
Improvement +1.0 #125 +0.4 #156

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.2% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 13.9% 14.8% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.0% 75.4% 60.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.7% 75.2% 59.8%
Average Seed 8.2 8.2 8.9
.500 or above 98.1% 98.7% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 86.1% 63.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four9.6% 9.2% 13.0%
First Round69.3% 71.0% 53.8%
Second Round36.0% 37.2% 24.1%
Sweet Sixteen9.6% 10.0% 5.1%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.2% 2.1%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 26 - 210 - 12
Quad 34 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 191 Campbell W 96 - 64 94% +8  1 - 0 +27 +18 A- A+ A+ +8 B C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 331 Northern Illinois W 97 - 72 98% +19  2 - 0 +11 +14 C A+ A+ -4 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 303 Ball St. W 86 - 55 98% +19  3 - 0 +20 +10 A- A- F +11 B+ B A
 Mon, Nov 17 278 SIU Edwardsville W 94 - 69 97% +12  4 - 0 +15 +25 A+ C A+ -8 C F D
 Fri, Nov 21 11 BYU L 70 - 98 26% -12  4 - 1 -8 +2 B- D B -8 B A F
 Thu, Nov 27 68 Providence W 104 - 83 68% +14  5 - 1 +29 +17 A B+ A+ +9 B+ A B+
 Fri, Nov 28 45 TCU L 63 - 74 55% -11  5 - 2 +1 -6 F C- F +7 C- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 63 Northwestern W 85 - 73 76% +16  6 - 2 1 - 0 +18 +14 A+ D- A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 106 Marquette W 96 - 76 86% +12  7 - 2 +21 +15 A+ F A+ +4 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 16 @Nebraska L 60 - 90 24% -14  7 - 3 1 - 1 -10 -2 C- D+ A -7 D D+ B-
 Fri, Dec 19 34 Villanova L 66 - 76 OT 46% -7  7 - 4 +4 -0 C+ B+ D- +4 A+ C F
 Mon, Dec 22 325 Central Michigan W 88 - 61 98% +15  8 - 4 +14 +12 A+ F B+ +3 B- A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 60 96% +14  9 - 4 +13 -3 C F B+ +15 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 3 Purdue L 73 - 89 29% -8  9 - 5 1 - 2 +3 +5 C- A+ B- -1 A+ A- F
 Tue, Jan 6 38 UCLA W 80 - 72 61% +12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +18 +10 B+ A- A+ +8 A+ B C
 Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan W 91 - 88 8% -2  11 - 5 3 - 2 +31 +31 A+ A+ A+ +1 B A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 76 @Minnesota W 78 - 75 60% -1  12 - 5 4 - 2 +14 +17 A+ C+ A+ -4 D- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 124 Rutgers W 82 - 68 91%
 Thu, Jan 22 99 @Penn St. W 82 - 77 68%
 Sun, Jan 25 47 USC W 83 - 78 68%
 Wed, Jan 28 76 Minnesota W 75 - 67 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 36 Ohio St. W 80 - 78 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 31 @Indiana L 77 - 81 34%
 Tue, Feb 10 8 @Illinois L 73 - 84 17%
 Fri, Feb 13 13 Michigan St. L 71 - 74 40%
 Tue, Feb 17 36 @Ohio St. L 77 - 81 36%
 Sun, Feb 22 22 Iowa W 74 - 73 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 72 @Oregon W 78 - 76 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 46 @Washington L 77 - 78 45%
 Wed, Mar 4 112 Maryland W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 3 @Purdue L 72 - 84 14%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13 +8 A- C+ A+ +5 B- A C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 3.8 1.4 0.1 7.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 6.3 3.3 0.3 12.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 8.7 5.8 0.8 18.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.7 5.9 0.8 0.0 15.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.8 6.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 5.7 2.2 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.9 0.2 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.5 9.4 15.6 19.7 18.8 14.9 9.3 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 55.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 13.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.2% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 4.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 4.0% 99.9% 3.9% 96.0% 5.5 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 99.9%
14-6 9.3% 99.6% 1.9% 97.6% 6.5 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 14.9% 97.6% 1.3% 96.4% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 4.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 97.6%
12-8 18.8% 92.3% 0.7% 91.7% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 4.9 4.7 3.0 0.7 1.4 92.3%
11-9 19.7% 81.5% 0.5% 81.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 4.7 5.0 2.2 0.0 3.6 81.4%
10-10 15.6% 56.6% 0.2% 56.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 4.2 0.1 6.8 56.5%
9-11 9.4% 22.2% 0.2% 22.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.1 7.3 22.1%
8-12 4.5% 4.4% 0.1% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 4.3%
7-13 1.6% 1.6
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 74.0% 0.9% 73.1% 8.2 26.0 73.7%