Big 12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Houston 100.0%   1   24 - 3 11 - 3 27 - 4 14 - 4 +20.8      +8.7 17 +12.1 1 60.8 348 +21.5 3 +20.2 1
12 Iowa St. 100.0%   3   21 - 6 10 - 4 24 - 7 13 - 5 +15.9      +5.8 44 +10.1 4 69.5 151 +16.3 9 +18.8 2
14 Kansas 100.0%   3   20 - 6 9 - 5 22 - 8 11 - 7 +15.6      +6.6 33 +9.0 9 71.5 97 +17.2 4 +14.7 3
17 Baylor 99.4%   4   18 - 8 8 - 6 20 - 10 10 - 8 +14.9      +11.5 6 +3.4 82 65.5 273 +14.7 14 +13.5 6
21 TCU 92.7%   6   19 - 8 8 - 6 21 - 10 10 - 8 +13.6      +8.1 22 +5.5 35 73.3 56 +13.0 25 +14.1 5
22 BYU 87.7%   7   19 - 8 7 - 7 21 - 10 9 - 9 +13.5      +9.9 11 +3.6 74 71.8 91 +12.4 31 +11.3 8
28 Texas 56.4%   10   17 - 10 6 - 8 19 - 12 8 - 10 +12.3      +7.3 27 +4.9 47 67.5 217 +11.4 43 +10.6 9
30 Texas Tech 91.7%   5   19 - 8 8 - 6 21 - 10 10 - 8 +12.2      +8.6 18 +3.6 73 65.9 257 +13.3 22 +14.3 4
34 Oklahoma 75.5%   8   19 - 8 7 - 7 21 - 10 9 - 9 +11.9      +5.2 58 +6.6 23 67.4 220 +12.9 27 +11.4 7
47 Cincinnati 15.2%   16 - 11 5 - 9 18 - 13 7 - 11 +10.5      +4.2 79 +6.3 26 68.7 175 +8.8 69 +8.6 11
61 Kansas St. 15.6%   16 - 11 6 - 8 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.0      +0.9 151 +8.1 11 67.9 200 +9.9 56 +10.1 10
64 Central Florida 4.8%   14 - 12 5 - 9 15 - 15 6 - 12 +8.8      +1.1 146 +7.7 15 70.6 119 +6.5 92 +8.0 12
91 Oklahoma St. 1.6%   12 - 15 4 - 10 13 - 18 5 - 13 +6.2      +3.4 96 +2.8 98 67.9 202 +3.6 116 +7.0 13
122 West Virginia 0.7%   9 - 18 4 - 10 10 - 21 5 - 13 +3.1      +0.5 167 +2.6 102 70.5 121 +2.2 136 +6.7 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Houston 1.1 94.2 5.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 1.9 21.2 70.5 6.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kansas 3.4 3.0 16.7 42.7 21.0 10.9 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.0
Baylor 4.7 0.1 5.8 24.6 18.7 19.6 18.2 8.1 3.5 1.3 0.2
TCU 4.3 0.1 7.2 28.0 24.9 21.2 11.3 5.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
BYU 6.4 0.0 1.1 4.2 8.1 14.4 20.4 26.5 16.3 6.5 2.2 0.4 0.0
Texas 8.1 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 11.2 17.4 20.8 21.5 15.2 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Texas Tech 4.3 0.1 7.2 27.0 24.2 21.2 12.3 5.3 2.0 0.7 0.1
Oklahoma 7.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.8 15.3 23.7 22.2 13.5 9.2 3.3 0.2
Cincinnati 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.2 10.4 15.1 24.7 28.3 13.1 2.8 0.6
Kansas St. 9.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.6 11.0 17.3 24.5 24.9 11.1 3.9 0.4 0.0
Central Florida 11.3 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 6.6 14.0 24.3 32.8 14.9 2.7
Oklahoma St. 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.9 4.4 10.2 23.5 39.7 19.5
West Virginia 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 6.8 12.9 37.9 39.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 14 - 4 0.2 3.1 15.6 40.1 40.9
Iowa St. 13 - 5 1.2 9.5 27.5 39.1 22.7
Kansas 11 - 7 3.3 21.0 41.1 28.4 6.1
Baylor 10 - 8 4.3 19.8 36.0 29.9 10.0
TCU 10 - 8 1.9 13.0 33.7 37.2 14.2
BYU 9 - 9 3.9 23.3 41.2 25.9 5.7
Texas 8 - 10 3.8 22.2 39.8 27.5 6.6
Texas Tech 10 - 8 2.6 14.6 32.9 35.1 14.8
Oklahoma 9 - 9 12.4 36.3 34.7 14.4 2.3
Cincinnati 7 - 11 3.8 25.3 46.1 22.4 2.5
Kansas St. 8 - 10 7.9 36.6 37.8 15.6 2.2
Central Florida 6 - 12 22.3 40.0 27.9 8.8 1.1
Oklahoma St. 5 - 13 20.8 41.1 28.6 8.5 0.9
West Virginia 5 - 13 37.4 40.4 18.0 3.9 0.3




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 94.2% 77.4 15.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 21.2% 5.1 14.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas 3.0% 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Baylor 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BYU 0.0% 0.0
Texas
Texas Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 0.0% 0.0
Cincinnati
Kansas St.
Central Florida
Oklahoma St.
West Virginia


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1   79.2 20.3 0.5 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 3   9.0 29.4 37.1 19.1 4.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kansas 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 3   2.5 16.2 38.1 28.0 10.4 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Baylor 99.4% 9.5% 89.9% 4   1.2 7.2 22.3 31.0 21.1 9.4 3.3 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.6 99.3%
TCU 92.7% 7.4% 85.3% 6   0.1 1.0 5.9 13.2 17.3 17.1 15.7 10.9 7.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 7.3 92.1%
BYU 87.7% 7.2% 80.6% 7   0.0 0.5 3.0 7.6 14.7 17.9 15.6 11.1 8.3 7.1 1.9 0.0 12.3 86.8%
Texas 56.4% 5.9% 50.5% 10   0.0 0.5 2.2 3.6 4.5 7.7 9.5 9.1 12.0 7.2 0.2 0.0 43.6 53.7%
Texas Tech 91.7% 5.7% 86.0% 5   0.1 0.7 6.3 14.8 21.3 22.4 13.5 7.4 3.5 1.4 0.3 8.3 91.2%
Oklahoma 75.5% 5.1% 70.3% 8   0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.2 9.0 13.6 13.1 12.5 13.4 5.6 0.1 24.5 74.1%
Cincinnati 15.2% 4.0% 11.2% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.4 4.8 5.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.8 11.6%
Kansas St. 15.6% 2.8% 12.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.5 5.4 4.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 84.4 13.1%
Central Florida 4.8% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.0 95.2 2.0%
Oklahoma St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 98.4 0.0%
West Virginia 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.0% 79.8% 58.3% 38.2% 23.4% 13.9%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.6% 58.7% 28.6% 12.6% 5.4% 2.2%
Kansas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.9% 54.7% 25.0% 10.8% 4.4% 1.8%
Baylor 99.4% 0.3% 99.3% 82.4% 46.9% 19.4% 8.1% 3.1% 1.2%
TCU 92.7% 1.7% 92.0% 63.3% 27.9% 10.5% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5%
BYU 87.7% 3.9% 86.1% 57.5% 23.7% 9.4% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4%
Texas 56.4% 10.8% 51.7% 29.0% 9.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Texas Tech 91.7% 0.7% 91.3% 60.8% 24.7% 8.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Oklahoma 75.5% 10.5% 70.6% 38.9% 12.1% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Cincinnati 15.2% 6.1% 12.3% 5.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 15.6% 6.0% 12.4% 5.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 4.8% 1.1% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 1.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.4 0.1 1.4 12.8 39.5 36.3 9.3 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.2 0.1 2.4 17.1 43.0 31.2 6.0 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.8 18.9 32.4 28.6 11.3 1.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.4 0.3 3.8 16.8 32.7 29.9 13.3 2.9 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 91.0% 1.7 9.0 35.4 37.3 15.2 2.9 0.2 0.0
Final Four 65.3% 0.8 34.7 49.4 14.6 1.3 0.0
Final Game 38.1% 0.4 61.9 35.7 2.5
Champion 20.4% 0.2 79.6 20.4