Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Iowa St. 99.4%   2   7 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +19.9      +10.1 15 +9.9 6 71.2 143 +23.5 8 0.0 1
7 Houston 99.1%   2   7 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +19.7      +9.0 19 +10.7 4 59.9 361 +19.2 14 0.0 1
8 Arizona 99.4%   2   7 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +19.3      +10.2 13 +9.1 11 76.3 43 +28.9 1 0.0 1
12 BYU 98.7%   3   6 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 7 13 - 5 +18.9      +11.0 8 +7.9 15 71.8 129 +21.4 10 0.0 1
19 Kansas 89.9%   5   6 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +16.0      +6.5 49 +9.5 9 69.1 195 +15.8 27 0.0 1
28 Baylor 76.6%   7   6 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +13.8      +10.4 11 +3.3 77 71.8 128 +17.8 19 0.0 1
29 Texas Tech 69.9%   7   6 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 +13.8      +8.1 31 +5.6 41 67.3 246 +14.7 29 0.0 1
45 TCU 58.7%   9   5 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11.6      +3.6 83 +8.0 14 70.6 157 +14.1 34 0.0 1
50 Oklahoma St. 56.0%   10   8 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 8 - 10 +11.0      +6.4 51 +4.6 55 84.6 5 +17.3 20 0.0 1
63 Colorado 35.6%   8 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 7 - 11 +8.8      +7.2 42 +1.7 121 69.5 181 +17.0 21 0.0 1
64 Cincinnati 19.7%   6 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8.8      -1.0 192 +9.9 7 78.1 24 +3.8 122 0.0 1
65 Central Florida 33.2%   7 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 7 - 11 +8.7      +6.9 46 +1.7 117 75.4 50 +16.9 23 0.0 1
68 West Virginia 14.8%   6 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +8.3      +2.2 116 +6.2 32 62.3 350 +5.3 98 0.0 1
71 Kansas St. 13.3%   5 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 12 +7.8      +5.8 57 +1.9 110 78.5 23 +7.1 85 0.0 1
81 Arizona St. 15.9%   6 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 12 +7.0      +5.6 61 +1.5 126 70.8 154 +13.2 42 0.0 1
121 Utah 0.9%   6 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 19 4 - 14 +3.0      +2.6 109 +0.4 152 70.9 150 +3.3 131 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Nov 29 8 Arizona 98 231 Norfolk St. 61   
Sat, Nov 29 65 Central Florida 82 338 VMI 57   
Sun, Nov 30 29 Texas Tech 76 106 Wyoming 72   
Sun, Nov 30 319 Mercyhurst 38 68 West Virginia 70   
Mon, Dec 1 117 Bowling Green 82 71 Kansas St. 66   
Mon, Dec 1 129 California Baptist 70 63 Colorado 78   
Mon, Dec 1 64 Cincinnati 76 199 Tarleton St. 58   
Tue, Dec 2 19 Kansas 56 4 Connecticut 61   
Tue, Dec 2 69 California 79 121 Utah 72   
Tue, Dec 2 50 Oklahoma St. 93 138 Sam Houston St. 83   
Tue, Dec 2 28 Baylor 110 272 Sacramento St. 88   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 3 12 BYU 82 129 California Baptist 66 93%   
Wed, Dec 3 333 Alcorn St. 58 5 Iowa St. 91 99%   
Wed, Dec 3 364 Coppin St. 52 68 West Virginia 80 99%   
Fri, Dec 5 62 Notre Dame 66 45 TCU 72 71%   
Fri, Dec 5 64 Cincinnati 72 78 Xavier 74 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 5 Iowa St. 72 2 Purdue 78 70%   
Sat, Dec 6 8 Arizona 84 23 Auburn 77 76%   
Sat, Dec 6 53 Wake Forest 70 68 West Virginia 69 57%   
Sat, Dec 6 71 Kansas St. 75 76 Seton Hall 72 63%   
Sat, Dec 6 63 Colorado 74 75 Colorado St. 76 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 81 Arizona St. 77 42 Oklahoma 82 68%   
Sat, Dec 6 28 Baylor 82 74 Memphis 78 62%   
Sat, Dec 6 95 Grand Canyon 78 50 Oklahoma St. 83 71%   
Sat, Dec 6 129 California Baptist 71 121 Utah 75 64%   
Sat, Dec 6 99 Florida St. 64 7 Houston 79 91%   
Sun, Dec 7 27 LSU 77 29 Texas Tech 76 51%   
Sun, Dec 7 19 Kansas 78 35 Missouri 71 73%   
Sun, Dec 7 132 Towson 68 65 Central Florida 78 82%   
Sun, Dec 7 148 North Texas 62 45 TCU 70 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Iowa St. 3.1 30.2 21.1 15.4 11.2 7.8 5.1 3.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston 3.1 28.7 21.6 16.6 11.2 7.9 5.3 3.4 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona 3.4 25.8 19.3 16.0 12.5 8.8 6.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
BYU 3.5 24.9 18.9 16.3 12.4 9.1 6.2 4.3 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kansas 5.5 8.8 10.4 11.8 12.4 12.5 11.2 8.7 6.9 5.6 4.0 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2
Baylor 7.3 3.5 5.3 6.8 8.3 9.8 10.3 10.2 9.5 8.5 7.2 6.1 5.2 3.9 2.8 1.9 0.8
Texas Tech 7.1 3.3 5.1 7.2 8.9 10.5 10.9 10.9 9.9 8.6 7.0 5.9 4.5 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.5
TCU 8.2 1.9 3.4 5.3 6.6 8.4 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.0 8.5 7.6 6.3 5.4 4.3 3.1 1.6
Oklahoma St. 9.0 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.2 6.9 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.1 8.7 7.9 7.0 6.1 4.4 2.3
Colorado 9.9 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.9 6.4 8.0 8.7 9.3 9.9 9.9 9.5 8.9 7.5 6.1 3.9
Cincinnati 10.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.3 6.8 7.5 8.7 9.6 10.0 9.9 10.2 9.7 8.6 5.0
Central Florida 10.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.5 6.1 7.0 8.3 8.7 9.3 9.1 9.6 9.5 8.6 7.9 4.8
West Virginia 10.3 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.1 8.2 8.8 9.6 9.7 10.0 9.5 9.1 7.8 4.6
Kansas St. 11.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.2 6.5 7.6 8.4 9.5 10.6 11.5 11.9 11.3 7.3
Arizona St. 11.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.6 7.7 9.2 9.9 11.0 11.5 11.6 10.8 8.1
Utah 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.4 6.5 9.4 13.1 20.7 37.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Iowa St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.4 9.5 13.1 15.6 16.8 14.6 10.4 5.4 1.6
Houston 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.2 9.8 13.4 16.6 16.9 14.8 10.0 4.7 1.2
Arizona 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.4 7.5 10.9 14.0 16.1 16.1 13.1 8.5 4.0 0.9
BYU 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.7 7.7 11.2 14.2 16.0 15.5 12.9 8.0 3.9 1.0
Kansas 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.1 7.9 11.0 13.8 15.0 14.1 11.6 8.7 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.1
Baylor 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.5 6.9 10.1 12.3 14.1 13.7 11.9 9.6 6.4 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Texas Tech 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.4 6.2 9.7 12.7 14.5 14.5 12.9 10.3 6.9 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
TCU 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 6.1 9.2 11.8 13.6 13.9 12.5 10.3 7.6 4.6 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.1 8.3 11.3 13.0 14.0 13.1 11.2 8.5 5.9 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Colorado 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.9 10.7 13.5 14.7 14.3 12.2 9.5 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cincinnati 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.5 9.2 12.2 14.2 15.0 13.5 10.5 7.7 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.3 4.9 8.1 11.4 13.5 14.3 13.3 11.3 8.4 5.5 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.0 8.3 11.7 14.4 14.5 13.5 11.4 8.0 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 0.3 1.3 3.9 7.4 11.4 14.5 15.1 13.8 11.9 8.7 5.9 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 6 - 12 0.2 1.3 3.8 7.3 11.3 14.9 15.6 14.7 12.1 8.5 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah 4 - 14 3.5 9.6 15.9 19.1 17.5 13.7 9.5 5.7 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iowa St. 30.2% 18.6 8.5 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Houston 28.7% 17.5 8.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Arizona 25.8% 15.4 7.5 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
BYU 24.9% 14.9 7.2 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Kansas 8.8% 4.5 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Baylor 3.5% 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech 3.3% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 1.2% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Colorado 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iowa St. 99.4% 22.2% 77.2% 2   21.7 23.5 19.3 13.4 8.7 5.8 3.1 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.6 99.2%
Houston 99.1% 20.7% 78.4% 2   18.0 21.5 19.0 15.2 9.9 6.7 4.1 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.9 98.8%
Arizona 99.4% 18.9% 80.6% 2   23.1 26.2 20.1 12.7 7.9 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.6 99.3%
BYU 98.7% 17.3% 81.5% 3   15.0 20.4 19.3 15.6 11.0 7.3 4.5 2.5 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.3 98.5%
Kansas 89.9% 7.9% 82.0% 5   3.5 7.9 13.4 13.7 14.7 11.7 8.1 5.3 4.0 3.6 3.6 0.4 10.1 89.0%
Baylor 76.6% 3.9% 72.7% 7   1.1 2.7 6.0 7.9 10.0 11.0 10.5 8.8 6.9 5.7 5.5 0.5 23.4 75.6%
Texas Tech 69.9% 3.7% 66.2% 7   0.9 2.1 4.8 7.3 9.7 10.1 9.0 7.2 6.3 5.6 6.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 30.1 68.7%
TCU 58.7% 1.9% 56.8% 9   0.1 0.5 1.7 2.8 4.7 6.7 9.0 10.3 9.4 7.6 5.7 0.3 41.3 57.9%
Oklahoma St. 56.0% 1.3% 54.7% 10   0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.4 7.8 8.5 8.8 8.4 7.1 0.3 44.0 55.4%
Colorado 35.6% 0.5% 35.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.5 5.0 6.7 8.0 7.4 0.3 0.0 64.4 35.2%
Cincinnati 19.7% 0.5% 19.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.4 0.2 80.3 19.3%
Central Florida 33.2% 0.5% 32.8% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.1 6.5 7.0 6.2 0.4 0.0 66.8 32.9%
West Virginia 14.8% 0.4% 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.9 4.0 3.3 0.1 85.2 14.5%
Kansas St. 13.3% 0.2% 13.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 2.8 3.3 2.6 0.2 86.7 13.1%
Arizona St. 15.9% 0.2% 15.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.9 0.3 84.1 15.7%
Utah 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 99.1 0.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iowa St. 99.4% 0.4% 99.2% 90.8% 62.7% 36.3% 19.3% 9.9% 4.7%
Houston 99.1% 0.5% 98.9% 89.2% 60.8% 34.2% 17.9% 9.2% 4.3%
Arizona 99.4% 0.4% 99.2% 91.3% 61.6% 34.7% 17.6% 8.6% 4.0%
BYU 98.7% 0.6% 98.5% 87.3% 56.4% 30.2% 15.2% 7.4% 3.4%
Kansas 89.9% 4.3% 88.1% 67.9% 35.4% 14.9% 6.1% 2.3% 0.9%
Baylor 76.6% 6.5% 73.3% 48.3% 20.0% 7.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Texas Tech 69.9% 7.4% 66.5% 44.2% 18.7% 7.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%
TCU 58.7% 6.5% 55.4% 30.5% 9.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Oklahoma St. 56.0% 8.2% 51.6% 27.0% 7.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Colorado 35.6% 8.6% 30.6% 13.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati 19.7% 4.1% 17.6% 8.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 33.2% 7.4% 29.0% 12.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
West Virginia 14.8% 3.7% 12.9% 5.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 13.3% 3.1% 11.7% 5.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 15.9% 4.7% 13.3% 5.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 9.2 28.5 35.6 20.1 4.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 2.6 14.9 34.2 32.2 13.4 2.3 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.8 5.6 18.3 33.0 27.9 11.8 2.4 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.4 0.3 3.7 15.9 31.9 31.3 13.8 2.8 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 91.0% 1.7 9.0 32.6 37.7 17.4 3.1 0.3 0.0
Final Four 64.4% 0.8 35.6 46.5 16.1 1.8 0.0
Final Game 36.7% 0.4 63.3 33.6 3.2
Champion 18.2% 0.2 81.8 18.2