Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Arizona 100.0%   1   9 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 14 - 4 +22.5      +11.6 8 +10.9 5 75.2 46 +29.6 1 0.0 1
4 Iowa St. 100.0%   1   11 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 14 - 4 +21.9      +10.6 11 +11.2 3 72.3 107 +28.3 2 0.0 1
8 Houston 99.5%   3   10 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +19.9      +9.0 21 +10.9 6 60.4 361 +19.0 14 0.0 1
9 BYU 99.5%   2   9 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +19.3      +11.1 9 +8.3 14 68.4 214 +22.5 10 0.0 1
17 Kansas 95.4%   4   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +16.9      +6.5 55 +10.3 8 67.8 226 +18.0 19 0.0 1
24 Texas Tech 80.5%   7   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 +15.0      +9.2 18 +5.9 34 67.5 236 +14.8 31 0.0 1
32 Baylor 66.6%   7   7 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +13.3      +10.0 14 +3.3 76 72.8 90 +13.7 37 0.0 1
52 Oklahoma St. 44.7%   11   9 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 8 - 10 +10.3      +6.6 53 +3.7 71 81.5 9 +15.7 26 0.0 1
53 TCU 36.7%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +10.0      +2.7 110 +7.3 19 70.2 165 +10.3 57 0.0 1
57 Central Florida 39.2%   8 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +9.5      +7.1 43 +2.4 101 74.8 50 +16.8 22 0.0 1
61 Arizona St. 35.7%   9 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +9.1      +5.9 59 +3.2 79 70.8 153 +15.7 27 0.0 1
62 Colorado 31.1%   9 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +8.8      +7.3 41 +1.5 121 70.7 156 +15.0 30 0.0 1
64 West Virginia 9.6%   8 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8.6      +3.2 98 +5.5 41 62.2 346 +3.5 121 0.0 1
67 Kansas St. 15.9%   7 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 12 +8.3      +5.6 62 +2.7 91 79.4 15 +8.4 72 0.0 1
78 Cincinnati 6.8%   6 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 12 +7.5      -1.6 209 +9.2 11 76.5 34 +1.8 146 0.0 1
120 Utah 0.7%   7 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 19 4 - 14 +3.1      +3.5 92 -0.4 177 70.9 146 +3.6 117 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 13 15 Alabama 75 3 Arizona 96   
Sat, Dec 13 21 Arkansas 93 24 Texas Tech 86   
Sat, Dec 13 17 Kansas 77 29 North Carolina St. 76   
Sat, Dec 13 44 Oklahoma 85 52 Oklahoma St. 76   
Sat, Dec 13 59 Creighton 76 67 Kansas St. 83   
Sat, Dec 13 61 Arizona St. 82 74 Santa Clara 79   
Sat, Dec 13 31 Ohio St. 89 64 West Virginia 88   
Sat, Dec 13 78 Cincinnati 65 19 Georgia 84   
Sat, Dec 13 82 Mississippi St. 82 120 Utah 74   
Sat, Dec 13 62 Colorado 88 287 Texas San Antonio 64   
Sat, Dec 13 8 Houston 99 247 New Orleans 57   
Sat, Dec 13 9 BYU 100 268 UC Riverside 53   
Sun, Dec 14 333 Eastern Illinois 53 4 Iowa St. 78   
Mon, Dec 15 53 TCU 69 176 Incarnate Word 65   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 17 Kansas 75 139 Towson 57 95%   
Tue, Dec 16 9 BYU 82 128 Pacific 62 96%   
Tue, Dec 16 154 Northern Colorado 67 24 Texas Tech 84 94%   
Tue, Dec 16 219 Abilene Christian 57 3 Arizona 86 99%   
Wed, Dec 17 61 Arizona St. 70 30 UCLA 77 77%   
Wed, Dec 17 168 Mercer 77 57 Central Florida 90 89%   
Wed, Dec 17 62 Colorado 81 178 Portland St. 68 88%   
Wed, Dec 17 265 Alabama St. 65 78 Cincinnati 81 92%   
Thu, Dec 18 301 Oral Roberts 65 53 TCU 86 96%   
Thu, Dec 18 347 UMKC 67 52 Oklahoma St. 92 98%   
Fri, Dec 19 219 Abilene Christian 57 9 BYU 83 98%   
Fri, Dec 19 330 Alcorn St. 67 32 Baylor 94 98%   
Sat, Dec 20 21 Arkansas 69 8 Houston 73 66%   
Sat, Dec 20 2 Duke 77 24 Texas Tech 69 77%   
Sat, Dec 20 3 Arizona 85 51 San Diego St. 72 87%   
Sat, Dec 20 62 Colorado 82 93 Stanford 79 62%   
Sat, Dec 20 186 Florida Gulf Coast 74 57 Central Florida 88 90%   
Sat, Dec 20 242 Eastern Washington 76 120 Utah 86 84%   
Sat, Dec 20 67 Kansas St. 97 277 South Dakota 80 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Arizona 2.4 41.0 23.0 15.1 9.2 5.5 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 2.5 36.7 25.0 16.3 10.2 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Houston 3.3 21.3 21.4 19.5 14.8 9.3 5.8 3.4 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
BYU 3.7 18.1 18.0 17.8 16.2 11.1 7.3 4.6 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas 5.4 6.7 9.2 12.0 14.4 15.0 12.4 9.2 7.1 4.7 3.4 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
Texas Tech 6.5 2.8 5.3 8.3 11.5 13.4 13.4 11.9 9.4 7.0 5.7 4.2 2.9 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2
Baylor 7.9 1.6 2.9 4.7 7.1 9.7 11.0 11.0 10.1 9.8 8.1 6.6 6.1 4.8 3.4 2.3 0.9
Oklahoma St. 9.7 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.6 5.3 7.5 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.3 8.1 7.2 5.8 3.0
TCU 9.6 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.5 5.8 7.8 8.9 9.4 10.0 9.9 9.1 8.7 8.0 7.3 5.4 3.1
Central Florida 9.7 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 6.0 7.5 9.0 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.3 8.6 7.9 7.0 6.1 3.1
Arizona St. 10.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.4 6.1 8.2 9.7 10.0 10.9 10.2 9.5 9.4 8.1 6.0 3.6
Colorado 10.2 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.4 6.6 7.6 9.2 9.7 10.0 10.2 9.9 9.4 8.0 6.4 4.2
West Virginia 10.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.3 9.8 9.7 9.2 8.6 7.3 3.9
Kansas St. 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.6 5.8 7.5 8.9 9.3 10.1 10.9 11.3 11.0 9.4 5.8
Cincinnati 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.4 4.8 6.1 7.2 8.5 9.7 10.8 11.2 12.8 12.8 8.6
Utah 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.2 5.8 8.6 13.2 20.5 40.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 5.7 9.7 14.0 18.3 19.4 16.0 8.9 3.0
Iowa St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 6.3 9.8 15.2 19.0 19.4 15.1 7.9 2.1
Houston 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.5 6.4 10.2 14.4 17.6 17.8 14.1 9.1 3.6 0.8
BYU 13 - 5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.9 4.9 8.1 12.3 15.3 16.8 15.7 12.0 6.8 2.8 0.6
Kansas 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.4 7.6 11.4 14.0 15.6 15.1 12.3 8.5 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
Texas Tech 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.6 7.6 11.1 14.6 15.4 14.8 12.3 8.4 4.8 2.1 0.8 0.1
Baylor 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.5 9.2 11.6 14.1 14.4 13.8 10.7 7.8 4.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 6.7 10.4 13.6 15.3 14.2 12.0 9.4 6.4 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
TCU 8 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.5 10.2 12.8 15.0 14.3 13.0 9.7 6.6 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1
Central Florida 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.7 6.9 9.5 13.2 14.5 14.6 12.6 9.7 6.4 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.9 7.5 11.8 14.5 16.3 15.4 12.4 8.1 4.9 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
Colorado 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.3 7.6 11.8 15.0 15.6 14.4 11.7 8.2 4.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.4 8.2 12.1 14.5 15.8 14.5 11.7 7.9 4.9 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 0.1 0.9 3.1 6.3 10.6 14.5 15.8 15.4 12.9 9.2 5.7 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 6 - 12 0.3 1.6 4.6 8.6 13.2 15.6 15.8 14.0 11.0 7.2 4.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 4 - 14 3.7 10.6 16.7 19.6 17.8 13.6 8.7 4.9 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 41.0% 26.4 11.1 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 36.7% 22.6 10.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Houston 21.3% 11.4 7.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
BYU 18.1% 9.7 6.0 1.9 0.5 0.1
Kansas 6.7% 3.2 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 2.8% 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Baylor 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Florida 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1   49.2 31.2 12.2 4.6 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 1   40.1 33.6 15.3 6.7 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Houston 99.5% 16.4% 83.1% 3   14.9 22.4 21.5 17.0 10.5 6.2 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 99.4%
BYU 99.5% 14.2% 85.4% 2   15.3 22.3 22.4 16.2 10.5 6.2 3.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 99.5%
Kansas 95.4% 6.5% 88.9% 4   4.1 10.1 16.6 17.3 16.2 11.9 7.0 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.3 0.1 4.6 95.1%
Texas Tech 80.5% 3.9% 76.6% 7   0.9 2.7 6.7 9.8 12.4 12.4 10.7 7.6 5.9 5.4 5.8 0.3 0.0 19.5 79.7%
Baylor 66.6% 2.0% 64.6% 7   0.3 1.0 3.1 4.7 7.4 9.2 11.4 9.3 7.3 6.4 6.3 0.3 0.0 33.4 65.9%
Oklahoma St. 44.7% 0.5% 44.1% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.2 3.9 5.7 7.0 8.2 8.2 7.7 0.3 55.3 44.4%
TCU 36.7% 0.5% 36.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.4 7.2 7.6 7.6 5.4 0.1 63.3 36.5%
Central Florida 39.2% 0.4% 38.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.7 8.1 7.6 0.3 0.0 60.8 39.0%
Arizona St. 35.7% 0.2% 35.5% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.3 5.8 6.7 6.9 7.1 0.4 64.3 35.5%
Colorado 31.1% 0.3% 30.8% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.9 5.9 7.5 7.2 0.2 68.9 30.9%
West Virginia 9.6% 0.2% 9.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.8 2.9 2.7 0.1 90.4 9.5%
Kansas St. 15.9% 0.2% 15.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 0.1 84.1 15.7%
Cincinnati 6.8% 0.1% 6.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 93.2 6.7%
Utah 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 99.3 0.7%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.0% 77.8% 52.8% 32.1% 18.3% 9.9%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.3% 74.7% 48.7% 27.9% 14.9% 7.3%
Houston 99.5% 0.3% 99.3% 91.2% 62.4% 34.7% 17.4% 8.2% 3.6%
BYU 99.5% 0.3% 99.4% 90.7% 60.0% 32.1% 15.7% 7.1% 3.0%
Kansas 95.4% 2.9% 94.2% 76.5% 41.6% 17.8% 7.6% 3.0% 1.0%
Texas Tech 80.5% 6.7% 77.6% 54.9% 23.9% 9.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5%
Baylor 66.6% 7.2% 63.5% 39.4% 14.4% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
Oklahoma St. 44.7% 9.0% 39.8% 19.1% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
TCU 36.7% 6.1% 33.4% 15.7% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 39.2% 8.6% 34.3% 15.5% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Arizona St. 35.7% 8.3% 31.0% 13.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 31.1% 8.1% 26.6% 11.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 9.6% 3.1% 8.1% 3.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 15.9% 4.2% 13.6% 5.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati 6.8% 1.9% 5.9% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.6 0.0 1.6 12.0 31.9 35.4 15.5 3.3 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.3 0.1 3.3 18.8 37.4 29.5 9.3 1.5 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.3 3.6 16.7 35.5 30.2 11.6 1.9 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.7 0.2 1.8 10.7 27.8 35.8 19.2 4.2 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 95.5% 2.1 4.6 23.8 39.2 25.8 6.1 0.5 0.0
Final Four 76.0% 1.1 24.0 48.1 24.3 3.5 0.1
Final Game 48.4% 0.5 51.6 43.1 5.3
Champion 25.7% 0.3 74.3 25.7