Big 12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Kansas 100.0%   1   18 - 4 6 - 3 23 - 8 11 - 7 +16.6      +8.2 16 +8.4 13 72.1 83 +19.1 4 +16.3 5
10 Texas 100.0%   2   18 - 4 7 - 2 23 - 8 12 - 6 +15.8      +9.0 13 +6.7 26 70.6 111 +18.1 7 +19.3 1
14 Baylor 99.8%   3   16 - 6 5 - 4 21 - 10 10 - 8 +14.8      +10.7 5 +4.1 70 69.1 148 +16.3 13 +14.9 6
15 TCU 99.2%   3   17 - 5 6 - 3 22 - 9 11 - 7 +14.7      +6.4 32 +8.3 16 73.2 57 +15.5 16 +17.4 3
22 Iowa St. 97.7%   5   15 - 6 6 - 3 20 - 10 11 - 7 +13.8      +4.9 58 +8.8 11 63.2 311 +15.3 17 +17.3 4
23 West Virginia 63.4%   11   13 - 9 2 - 7 18 - 13 7 - 11 +13.5      +7.9 18 +5.6 39 69.7 130 +11.3 45 +7.2 8
28 Kansas St. 98.9%   4   18 - 4 6 - 3 23 - 8 11 - 7 +12.8      +6.1 36 +6.7 27 71.9 87 +17.8 8 +18.8 2
35 Oklahoma St. 51.9%   11   13 - 9 4 - 5 17 - 14 8 - 10 +11.9      +1.9 117 +10.0 7 69.6 133 +9.9 53 +12.8 7
43 Oklahoma 26.3%   12 - 10 2 - 7 15 - 16 5 - 13 +10.5      +5.5 48 +5.1 49 63.4 306 +9.8 54 +6.3 9
53 Texas Tech 6.4%   12 - 10 1 - 8 15 - 16 4 - 14 +9.8      +4.4 65 +5.4 43 68.3 177 +6.4 84 +2.0 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Kansas 2.7 30.7 22.6 17.4 12.9 8.9 5.2 1.8 0.4 0.0
Texas 2.2 47.3 21.0 13.6 9.0 5.6 2.8 0.7 0.1
Baylor 4.2 8.8 13.3 16.3 17.2 17.6 16.3 7.9 2.4 0.4 0.0
TCU 3.3 21.1 20.2 17.4 14.9 12.1 9.0 4.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 3.6 15.6 17.8 17.6 16.4 14.9 11.3 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.1 9.4 23.5 37.2 18.0 5.1
Kansas St. 3.6 15.2 18.1 17.7 16.5 14.7 11.7 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma St. 6.2 0.9 2.7 4.7 7.7 11.6 19.1 32.4 15.9 4.2 0.8
Oklahoma 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 9.1 24.5 42.0 20.1
Texas Tech 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 4.0 12.1 28.3 54.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 11 - 7 0.1 0.6 2.7 8.1 16.3 23.6 23.9 16.3 7.1 1.5
Texas 12 - 6 0.1 1.0 4.2 11.0 19.8 24.2 21.6 12.7 4.7 0.9
Baylor 10 - 8 0.1 0.9 4.0 10.7 19.6 25.0 22.0 12.5 4.5 0.7
TCU 11 - 7 0.1 1.5 5.6 12.4 20.3 23.5 19.9 11.7 4.2 0.8
Iowa St. 11 - 7 0.3 2.1 7.0 15.4 23.2 23.0 17.6 8.5 2.6 0.4
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.1 1.6 6.1 14.6 22.9 25.0 18.4 8.6 2.4 0.3
Kansas St. 11 - 7 0.3 2.2 7.3 15.5 22.6 23.0 17.1 8.7 2.8 0.4
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.6 3.7 11.1 19.8 24.1 20.9 12.8 5.4 1.5 0.2
Oklahoma 5 - 13 1.9 8.7 19.2 25.1 22.4 14.4 6.1 1.8 0.3 0.0
Texas Tech 4 - 14 2.3 10.6 20.3 25.5 21.4 12.8 5.3 1.5 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Kansas 30.7% 15.9 9.6 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Texas 47.3% 29.1 12.4 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Baylor 8.8% 2.9 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
TCU 21.1% 9.7 7.2 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Iowa St. 15.6% 6.5 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 15.2% 6.1 5.4 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma St. 0.9% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Texas Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Kansas 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 1   40.7 40.2 13.6 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Texas 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2   26.6 38.4 22.8 8.2 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Baylor 99.8% 12.4% 87.4% 3   8.7 23.6 30.0 18.4 9.7 4.8 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8%
TCU 99.2% 12.1% 87.1% 3   4.0 13.6 28.6 21.5 16.1 8.3 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.8 99.1%
Iowa St. 97.7% 10.0% 87.8% 5   2.0 8.2 21.4 21.4 20.4 12.2 4.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 97.5%
West Virginia 63.4% 9.2% 54.2% 11   0.2 0.9 3.1 5.4 7.3 8.3 6.6 6.1 5.7 7.6 9.1 1.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 36.6 59.7%
Kansas St. 98.9% 8.0% 90.9% 4   1.8 8.8 21.8 22.7 19.9 11.8 5.7 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.8%
Oklahoma St. 51.9% 6.6% 45.2% 11   0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 4.4 6.9 8.7 8.7 5.5 6.0 6.6 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 48.1 48.4%
Oklahoma 26.3% 4.6% 21.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 5.6 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 73.7 22.8%
Texas Tech 6.4% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.0 93.6 2.6%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Kansas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.7% 63.5% 38.1% 20.4% 10.5% 5.1%
Texas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.2% 58.4% 32.3% 16.2% 7.8% 3.6%
Baylor 99.8% 0.4% 99.6% 85.5% 50.5% 24.5% 11.5% 5.4% 2.4%
TCU 99.2% 0.5% 99.0% 81.7% 47.3% 22.4% 10.4% 4.8% 2.1%
Iowa St. 97.7% 1.4% 97.1% 75.3% 40.0% 17.3% 7.7% 3.2% 1.2%
West Virginia 63.4% 10.7% 59.2% 38.6% 18.3% 8.5% 3.8% 1.6% 0.7%
Kansas St. 98.9% 0.7% 98.5% 73.6% 36.6% 14.3% 5.8% 2.3% 0.8%
Oklahoma St. 51.9% 7.9% 48.3% 27.5% 11.0% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Oklahoma 26.3% 9.1% 22.3% 10.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Texas Tech 6.4% 3.0% 5.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.4 0.2 10.7 43.0 37.8 8.1 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 7.3 0.3 14.4 46.5 33.0 5.7 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.8 0.0 0.1 1.5 8.8 26.1 37.9 21.4 4.1 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.3% 3.3 0.7 5.5 18.8 31.6 28.3 12.3 2.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 88.3% 1.6 11.7 34.6 35.5 15.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Final Four 60.6% 0.8 39.4 44.7 14.4 1.5 0.0
Final Game 33.7% 0.4 66.3 31.1 2.6
Champion 16.2% 0.2 83.8 16.2