Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Baylor 99.1%   1   7 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 13 - 5 +18.8      +10.6 5 +8.2 13 69.4 176 +19.7 8 0.0 1
9 Kansas 95.2%   2   4 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +16.9      +10.0 8 +6.9 29 73.9 74 +12.0 47 0.0 1
11 Texas 89.8%   3   4 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +16.1      +8.0 18 +8.1 14 60.4 346 +13.2 36 0.0 1
17 Texas Tech 82.0%   6   6 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +14.7      +7.2 25 +7.6 23 66.2 253 +2.5 138 0.0 1
34 Oklahoma St. 63.5%   7   6 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +11.8      +3.2 90 +8.6 8 73.8 78 +9.1 69 0.0 1
35 Oklahoma 62.5%   8   6 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11.7      +5.2 49 +6.4 34 67.2 235 +12.0 46 0.0 1
46 West Virginia 47.1%   11   5 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.7      +5.8 37 +3.9 69 67.9 221 +11.2 55 0.0 1
62 Iowa St. 35.3%   6 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 6 - 12 +7.7      +2.3 108 +5.4 47 72.3 95 +20.3 3 0.0 1
90 TCU 13.3%   4 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 16 5 - 13 +5.8      +2.6 101 +3.2 84 66.4 246 +4.5 117 0.0 1
102 Kansas St. 6.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 13 +4.8      +0.4 163 +4.4 61 64.1 301 +0.1 173 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Baylor 2.2 44.7 23.3 14.3 8.3 5.4 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Kansas 3.0 26.5 21.2 19.6 12.8 8.6 5.1 3.2 2.2 0.7 0.2
Texas 3.1 24.4 23.1 16.9 13.5 8.8 6.1 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.5
Texas Tech 3.8 14.3 17.8 16.8 17.3 12.0 8.9 7.0 3.9 1.6 0.5
Oklahoma St. 5.3 5.0 8.6 10.6 13.0 16.1 16.3 13.3 9.3 5.3 2.6
Oklahoma 5.3 4.4 7.1 11.6 14.6 17.3 14.6 11.7 9.8 6.0 2.8
West Virginia 6.2 2.1 4.4 7.7 9.4 13.5 15.6 15.9 15.3 9.9 6.3
Iowa St. 7.1 0.7 1.7 4.8 5.7 9.0 12.8 16.2 18.2 17.6 13.4
TCU 7.9 0.3 1.1 1.8 3.8 5.7 9.8 13.3 18.0 22.4 24.0
Kansas St. 8.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.9 11.7 17.8 22.2 31.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Baylor 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.2 3.8 6.5 9.6 12.4 14.8 17.1 14.1 10.5 5.7 2.1
Kansas 12 - 6 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.4 7.5 11.0 12.2 14.7 14.7 11.9 9.7 5.2 2.6 0.6
Texas 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 3.0 5.2 8.2 10.3 12.7 13.4 14.1 12.6 9.1 5.2 2.1 0.4
Texas Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.3 5.4 9.0 10.4 13.0 14.3 14.5 10.4 8.4 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.2
Oklahoma St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 3.1 5.8 8.9 11.2 14.4 14.3 11.8 10.8 7.6 5.3 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.3 6.0 8.4 10.8 14.1 14.1 12.9 11.3 8.1 4.3 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.7 6.3 9.3 12.5 13.1 14.7 12.1 9.9 6.4 5.4 2.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1
Iowa St. 6 - 12 0.3 2.0 4.2 7.7 11.0 14.1 13.3 13.1 11.9 9.1 5.9 3.9 2.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1
TCU 5 - 13 1.3 4.5 7.7 11.9 15.2 14.5 12.9 10.6 8.6 5.9 3.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 5 - 13 1.8 5.9 10.8 14.3 14.4 15.5 12.4 9.3 6.4 4.3 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Baylor 44.7% 32.8 9.7 1.8 0.3 0.0
Kansas 26.5% 17.4 7.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
Texas 24.4% 15.8 7.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
Texas Tech 14.3% 8.5 4.2 1.4 0.2
Oklahoma St. 5.0% 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.2
Oklahoma 4.4% 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
West Virginia 2.1% 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 0.7% 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.0
Kansas St. 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Baylor 99.1% 32.3% 66.8% 1   30.1 25.0 16.4 10.2 6.9 4.3 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 98.7%
Kansas 95.2% 20.4% 74.9% 2   20.2 16.7 15.0 11.7 10.1 6.7 5.5 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.0 4.8 94.0%
Texas 89.8% 18.6% 71.2% 3   11.1 13.1 13.6 11.1 11.1 8.5 6.7 5.4 3.3 2.6 2.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 10.2 87.5%
Texas Tech 82.0% 13.2% 68.8% 6   3.9 6.0 7.7 9.2 10.6 9.8 9.6 10.0 5.4 4.7 3.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 18.0 79.3%
Oklahoma St. 63.5% 5.4% 58.1% 7   1.4 3.5 4.7 7.4 7.5 8.7 8.0 5.6 4.6 3.8 5.1 3.0 0.3 0.0 36.5 61.4%
Oklahoma 62.5% 4.8% 57.7% 8   1.0 2.6 5.0 4.5 6.8 8.4 9.2 7.3 5.8 3.5 5.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 37.5 60.6%
West Virginia 47.1% 3.0% 44.1% 11   0.4 1.0 2.1 3.1 4.2 5.7 5.9 6.9 5.9 4.2 4.9 2.7 0.2 0.0 52.9 45.5%
Iowa St. 35.3% 1.5% 33.8% 0.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 2.6 3.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.2 5.2 2.7 0.1 64.7 34.3%
TCU 13.3% 0.5% 12.7% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 86.7 12.8%
Kansas St. 6.1% 0.3% 5.7% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.9 5.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Baylor 99.1% 0.3% 98.9% 88.9% 63.7% 39.4% 23.7% 13.7% 7.2%
Kansas 95.2% 1.3% 94.7% 78.7% 51.0% 29.1% 15.8% 8.3% 4.3%
Texas 89.8% 2.3% 88.9% 71.5% 43.8% 24.2% 12.5% 6.5% 3.1%
Texas Tech 82.0% 3.3% 80.5% 59.0% 31.5% 15.0% 7.5% 3.6% 1.7%
Oklahoma St. 63.5% 6.2% 60.7% 38.4% 16.4% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Oklahoma 62.5% 5.7% 59.7% 36.7% 15.0% 6.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2%
West Virginia 47.1% 5.7% 44.3% 24.8% 8.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Iowa St. 35.3% 5.4% 32.7% 14.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
TCU 13.3% 2.3% 11.9% 5.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Kansas St. 6.1% 1.1% 5.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.9 0.0 0.4 6.2 25.5 40.1 22.9 4.7 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 5.8 0.1 0.6 7.9 29.8 40.0 18.5 3.3 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.2 0.4 4.1 20.9 35.7 28.5 9.0 1.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.6% 2.4 2.4 17.2 37.1 30.3 10.8 2.1 0.1
Elite Eight 79.7% 1.3 20.3 42.6 29.0 7.4 0.8 0.0
Final Four 55.0% 0.7 45.0 44.1 10.0 0.8 0.0
Final Game 33.0% 0.3 67.0 31.0 2.0
Champion 17.0% 0.2 83.0 17.0