St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#68
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#57
Pace82.4#1
Improvement-1.1#314

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#82
First Shot+1.7#107
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#69
Layup/Dunks+5.9#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#323
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement-1.0#318

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#54
First Shot+4.3#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#126
Layups/Dunks+2.0#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#112
Freethrows+1.1#100
Improvement-0.2#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.3% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 3.8% 0.9%
Average Seed 12.1 11.6 13.1
.500 or above 93.8% 98.6% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 12.4% 19.6% 4.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four2.0% 2.7% 1.1%
First Round4.9% 6.1% 3.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Home) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 22 - 9
Quad 22 - 34 - 12
Quad 35 - 19 - 13
Quad 48 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 337   Merrimack W 97-72 97%     1 - 0 +11.5 +5.6 +1.4
  Nov 12, 2022 248   Lafayette W 83-68 92%     2 - 0 +7.6 +13.0 -4.6
  Nov 15, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. W 91-74 96%     3 - 0 +4.3 +13.8 -9.2
  Nov 17, 2022 91   Nebraska W 70-50 70%     4 - 0 +22.7 -0.4 +22.8
  Nov 21, 2022 98   Temple W 78-72 63%     5 - 0 +10.8 +1.8 +8.5
  Nov 23, 2022 76   Syracuse W 76-69 OT 54%     6 - 0 +14.0 -1.6 +15.0
  Nov 26, 2022 240   Niagara W 78-70 91%     7 - 0 +1.3 -3.8 +4.4
  Nov 29, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 95-68 99%     8 - 0 +6.0 +2.8 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2022 19   @ Iowa St. L 60-71 21%     8 - 1 +5.7 -4.4 +10.5
  Dec 07, 2022 123   DePaul W 86-67 78%     9 - 1 1 - 0 +18.9 +9.0 +9.2
  Dec 10, 2022 280   New Hampshire W 64-51 93%     10 - 1 +4.1 -12.1 +16.2
  Dec 17, 2022 133   Florida St. W 93-79 72%     11 - 1 +16.2 +17.2 -1.5
  Dec 21, 2022 66   @ Villanova L 63-78 39%     11 - 2 1 - 1 -4.0 -9.9 +7.0
  Dec 28, 2022 20   Xavier L 79-84 38%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +6.3 -1.1 +8.0
  Dec 31, 2022 47   @ Seton Hall L 66-88 32%     11 - 4 1 - 3 -9.1 +1.6 -10.2
  Jan 03, 2023 8   Marquette L 85-96 31%     11 - 5 1 - 4 +2.3 +8.5 -5.4
  Jan 07, 2023 27   @ Providence L 80-83 24%     11 - 6 1 - 5 +12.6 +5.3 +7.5
  Jan 10, 2023 87   Butler W 77-61 69%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +19.1 +3.0 +15.2
  Jan 15, 2023 6   @ Connecticut W 85-74 14%     13 - 6 3 - 5 +30.8 +13.9 +15.8
  Jan 20, 2023 66   Villanova L 49-57 59%     13 - 7 3 - 6 -2.3 -19.6 +16.8
  Jan 25, 2023 11   @ Creighton L 76-104 17%     13 - 8 3 - 7 -9.7 +6.8 -14.6
  Jan 29, 2023 188   Georgetown W 75-73 86%     14 - 8 4 - 7 -1.7 -2.7 +0.9
  Feb 01, 2023 47   Seton Hall W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 20   @ Xavier L 80-89 20%    
  Feb 07, 2023 87   @ Butler L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 27   Providence L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 14, 2023 123   @ DePaul W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 11   Creighton L 75-80 34%    
  Feb 22, 2023 188   @ Georgetown W 83-77 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 6   Connecticut L 73-79 29%    
  Mar 04, 2023 8   @ Marquette L 77-88 15%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.9 1.3 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 1.2 8.8 17.0 12.6 3.2 0.2 42.9 7th
8th 0.9 8.0 13.5 7.2 1.4 0.1 30.9 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 5.1 1.6 0.1 10.2 9th
10th 0.6 1.2 0.3 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.8 5.4 14.5 23.9 25.1 18.0 9.0 2.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.5% 71.1% 4.4% 66.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 69.7%
11-9 2.7% 37.8% 6.7% 31.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.7 33.3%
10-10 9.0% 13.8% 4.1% 9.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 7.8 10.1%
9-11 18.0% 5.2% 4.0% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 17.1 1.2%
8-12 25.1% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 24.2 0.0%
7-13 23.9% 3.0% 3.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 23.1
6-14 14.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.0
5-15 5.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.3
4-16 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 3.4% 2.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 94.2 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.2 16.0 60.0 16.0 8.0
Lose Out 0.8% 1.3% 16.0 1.3