St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#60
Expected Predictive Rating+7.2#81
Pace81.3#6
Improvement-2.6#336

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#59
First Shot+5.2#40
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#219
Layup/Dunks+7.6#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#175
Freethrows-1.4#263
Improvement-2.9#349

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#84
First Shot+4.7#47
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#275
Layups/Dunks+1.7#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows+3.1#21
Improvement+0.3#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 2.7% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 7.9% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.2% 43.2% 21.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.8% 40.5% 18.8%
Average Seed 9.0 8.6 9.1
.500 or above 73.2% 87.8% 69.8%
.500 or above in Conference 44.4% 55.9% 41.8%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 4.2% 9.0%
First Four4.5% 6.0% 4.2%
First Round22.9% 40.1% 18.9%
Second Round10.6% 19.7% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 5.8% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.0% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Neutral) - 18.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 37 - 13
Quad 34 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 119-61 99.6%    1 - 0 +30.4 +12.2 +8.7
  Nov 13, 2021 198   St. Peter's W 91-70 88%     2 - 0 +16.2 +13.4 +1.4
  Nov 17, 2021 31   @ Indiana L 74-76 24%     2 - 1 +13.2 +8.4 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2021 326   Fairleigh Dickinson W 87-74 96%     3 - 1 +0.0 -1.7 +0.6
  Nov 23, 2021 332   St. Francis Brooklyn W 76-70 97%     4 - 1 -8.1 -6.8 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2021 253   NJIT W 77-68 OT 92%     5 - 1 +1.0 -8.4 +8.0
  Dec 03, 2021 9   Kansas L 78-87 19%    
  Dec 05, 2021 246   Fordham W 81-66 92%    
  Dec 09, 2021 134   Monmouth W 85-77 78%    
  Dec 12, 2021 100   Colgate W 86-80 69%    
  Dec 18, 2021 214   Pittsburgh W 81-68 88%    
  Dec 20, 2021 28   @ Seton Hall L 73-81 23%    
  Dec 23, 2021 105   Butler W 73-67 72%    
  Dec 29, 2021 71   Marquette W 85-81 63%    
  Jan 01, 2022 137   @ Georgetown W 80-77 58%    
  Jan 05, 2022 83   DePaul W 83-79 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 53   @ Providence L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 12, 2022 15   @ Connecticut L 73-83 18%    
  Jan 16, 2022 137   Georgetown W 83-74 77%    
  Jan 19, 2022 82   @ Creighton L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 28   Seton Hall L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 7   @ Villanova L 69-82 13%    
  Feb 01, 2022 53   Providence W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 105   @ Butler W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 08, 2022 7   Villanova L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 13, 2022 15   Connecticut L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 16, 2022 40   @ Xavier L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 23, 2022 82   Creighton W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 27, 2022 83   @ DePaul L 80-82 44%    
  Mar 02, 2022 40   Xavier W 77-76 49%    
  Mar 05, 2022 71   @ Marquette L 82-84 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.4 4.1 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.2 1.3 0.1 13.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 5.2 4.2 1.1 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.2 5.7 8.2 10.5 12.3 13.0 11.6 10.7 8.3 6.2 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 95.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 80.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 58.3% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 28.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 99.5% 20.3% 79.3% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
16-4 1.1% 99.8% 12.9% 86.9% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 2.2% 99.0% 12.7% 86.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.8%
14-6 3.8% 93.2% 11.3% 81.9% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 92.3%
13-7 6.2% 84.1% 7.1% 77.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 1.0 82.9%
12-8 8.3% 62.4% 5.4% 57.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.1 60.3%
11-9 10.7% 38.2% 3.4% 34.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.6 36.0%
10-10 11.6% 19.6% 2.7% 16.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 9.3 17.3%
9-11 13.0% 5.8% 2.1% 3.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 12.2 3.9%
8-12 12.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.5%
7-13 10.5% 0.7% 0.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
6-14 8.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
5-15 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.7
4-16 3.2% 3.2
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.2% 3.1% 22.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.5 3.4 4.1 4.4 5.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.8 22.8%