St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.2 40
Expected Predictive Rating +14.4 37
Pace 64.4 296
Improvement -1.0 225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 62 B- B+ C+ B+ C+
Defense A- 26 A- A- D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 105 C+ 59% 141 +2.1 104
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 154 D+ 35% 277 -0.8 221
Three Pointers 38% 238 A- 39% 9 +1.9 113
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 160 B- +2.9 82
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 83
Second Chance B+ 37.4% 23 B- 1.10 81 B+ 0.41 27
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 125
Freethrows B- 0.33 113 A+ 81% 1 B+ 0.27 31
Total Offense B +5.7 62

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 58 B- 9.4% 87
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 39% 32 B- 3.9% 99
Three Pointers B+ 92% 29 C- 1.1% 222
Total B+ 65% 30 C+ 5.1% 117

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 177 B+ 50% 19 -2.8 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 57 B 34% 62 +0.8 257
Three Pointers 36% 312 A- 29% 23 -4.8 16
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 87 A- -6.3 14
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 18
Second Chance A- 24.1% 15 B 0.93 51 A- 0.23 17
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 262
Freethrows A- 0.24 18 C 72% 170 B+ 0.17 26
Total Defense A- +7.5 26

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 167 C+ 12.4% 117
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 35% 320 C- 4.2% 218
Three Pointers C- 86% 29 B- 1.4% 222
Total C 56% 174 C+ 6.4% 125

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.9 243 17.7 257
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 172 0.18 217
Improvement -1.6 #274 +0.7 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 3% 3% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70% 73% 60%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64% 67% 54%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 19% 23% 3%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four23% 22% 26%
First Round60% 63% 48%
Second Round26% 28% 19%
Sweet Sixteen6% 6% 4%
Elite Eight2% 2% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 26 - 27 - 6
Quad 311 - 018 - 6
Quad 48 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 123 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 89% +11  86% 1 - 0 A+ +26 A +13 A C- C+ A+ +15 B A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 293 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 98% +12  90% 2 - 0 B +11 A- +10 A+ D- F C+ +1 C- A- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 209 Ohio W 90 - 60 95% +15  84% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A +12 B- A+ B+ A+ +13 A+ D- A-
 Fri, Nov 14 131 North Texas W 80 - 49 90% +23  95% 4 - 0 A+ +30 A +13 C- A+ C+ A+ +18 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 145 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 92% +7  96% 5 - 0 B +11 A- +9 B+ A+ F+ C+ +2 B+ B F
 Wed, Nov 26 95 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 77% +3  71% 6 - 0 B +10 C -0 F B A- A +11 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 57 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 65% +8  98% 7 - 0 A +20 B+ +9 A A F+ A+ +12 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 12 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 28% -13  0% 7 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 B+ C- D D -6 C+ F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 111 @Davidson W 70 - 61 74% +1  43% 8 - 1 A- +15 B- +4 C+ B- B- A+ +12 A A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 60 Boise St. L 67 - 68 66% -6  2% 8 - 2 B- +8 D+ -4 F C+ B- A+ +12 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 115 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 89% +10  94% 9 - 2 B+ +13 B +6 C+ B+ C- B+ +6 A+ C- C+
 Mon, Dec 22 91 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 84% -2  19% 10 - 2 B- +8 C +1 F A+ C- A- +7 B+ B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 154 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 83% +1  56% 11 - 2 1 - 0 B +8 A+ +20 A A+ A+ F -11 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 290 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 94% +12  98% 12 - 2 2 - 0 A +23 B +6 B C C A+ +21 A+ B B
 Fri, Jan 2 206 Portland W 78 - 57 95% +14  95% 13 - 2 3 - 0 A- +15 B+ +8 A C B- A +9 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 127 Seattle W 93 - 76 90% +0  34% 14 - 2 4 - 0 A- +16 A+ +32 A+ A+ A+ F -14 D- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 126 Washington St. W 88 - 82 90% +9  93% 15 - 2 5 - 0 B- +5 B+ +9 A F+ F D+ -4 D- B- C
 Tue, Jan 13 116 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 75% +9  88% 16 - 2 6 - 0 A +20 A +12 A- A D+ A +9 B- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 42 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 43% -7  0% 16 - 3 6 - 1 B- +7 F -14 F C+ B- A+ +21 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 157 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 93% +14  97% 17 - 3 7 - 1 A+ +27 A +13 B A+ A- A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 206 @Portland W 75 - 69 88% +4  87% 18 - 3 8 - 1 B- +6 B +7 B+ D- C- C +0 B- B F
 Sat, Jan 31 11 @Gonzaga L 65 - 73 20% -3  18% 18 - 4 8 - 2 B+ +14 C+ +2 D+ D+ A A+ +12 A+ C- C+
 Wed, Feb 4 220 San Diego W 87 - 60 95% +19  95% 19 - 4 9 - 2 A +21 A+ +16 A- A+ A- A- +7 C A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 116 San Francisco W 79 - 54 89% +15  95% 20 - 4 10 - 2 A+ +25 B+ +9 A C+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 290 Pepperdine W 88 - 60 98% +16  94% 21 - 4 11 - 2 A +18 B +7 A+ A- F A +11 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 120 @Pacific W 72 - 61 76% +2  48% 22 - 4 12 - 2 A- +17 B+ +8 D- A+ A+ A +10 A C- B+
 Wed, Feb 18 127 @Seattle W 69 - 61 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 126 @Washington St. W 78 - 70 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 42 Santa Clara W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 11 Gonzaga L 72 - 75 39%
Totals 25 - 5 15 - 3 +13 B +6 B- B- C+ A- +8 A- A+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ D+ A- B- 41% 40% 38% C+ B- B+ B- B+ C+ B- A+ B+ A- B+ B A- A- 39% 25% 36% B- A- A- B A- D+ A- C B+
1.17 59% 35% 39% +3 0 1.08 37% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .27 0.98 50% 34% 29% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.9 .23 15% .24 72% .24
Nov
3		 St. Thomas A A+ D+ A A+ 33% 19% 48% D+ A B+ F C- C+ A B A A+ C- F A+ A- 51% 8% 41% D- B A- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28 0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05
Nov
7		 Chattanooga A- C A+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% D+ A+ D F+ D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ D- D+ B D+ 29% 29% 42% A- C- C A+ A- B+ F D F
1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51 0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28
Nov
11		 Ohio A C- F A+ B- 42% 19% 38% C B- A- A+ A+ B+ B B B+ A+ C+ B A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% B A+ C- F D- A- A+ F A+
1.30 55% 30% 45% +3 0 1.10 42% 1.5 .65 13% .36 77% .28 0.86 56% 40% 15% -11 -1 0.77 29% 1.2 .34 20% .13 86% .11
Nov
14		 North Texas A F F A D 47% 13% 40% A- C- A+ B+ A+ C+ B A+ A A+ A+ A+ C A+ 47% 17% 36% C A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B
1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33 0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20
Nov
19		 Arkansas St. A- C F A+ B 51% 19% 30% B+ B+ A+ B A+ F+ A+ B A+ C+ A- B- A- A 47% 10% 43% F+ B+ C B+ B F A+ F A-
1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45 1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19
Nov
26		 Wichita St. C D+ B F F 43% 29% 29% C+ F B- B+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A A A- B- A 48% 26% 26% C+ A- A+ B+ A+ A- D+ F F+
1.02 52% 43% 7% -13 -1 0.76 31% 1.1 .33 13% .44 85% .37 0.95 46% 31% 31% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.9 .23 19% .34 79% .27
Nov
27		 Virginia Tech B+ B A+ C- A 49% 16% 36% A- A A B- A F+ A+ A A+ A+ C B A+ A+ 25% 31% 44% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.14 64% 57% 31% +4 +1 1.13 41% 1.1 .44 22% .36 79% .28 0.97 62% 31% 26% -6 -2 0.85 39% 0.5 .20 13% .34 85% .29
Nov
28		 Vanderbilt C C+ A- C B+ 35% 24% 41% C+ B+ D- A C- D B- A+ A D F A+ F C 41% 30% 29% A- C+ C+ F F+ D- C D+ C-
0.98 56% 45% 32% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 22% .35 90% .32 1.32 83% 12% 44% +6 -1 1.13 31% 1.5 .49 10% .34 82% .27
Dec
7		 Davidson B- B- C D C+ 46% 33% 22% C C+ A+ F B- B- C+ C- C+ A+ C- B- A+ A 29% 29% 42% A- A A A+ A+ D C+ A+ B+
1.09 62% 40% 30% +1 -1 1.02 46% 0.8 .35 17% .32 65% .21 0.95 60% 40% 27% -3 -2 0.92 23% 0.6 .13 14% .27 53% .15
Dec
14		 Boise St. D+ F+ D- F F 40% 26% 34% C+ F B+ F+ C+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C F B- C 36% 26% 38% A C+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ F A
0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34 0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22
Dec
19		 Florida Atlantic B A+ F F C+ 46% 12% 42% B C+ A+ D- B+ C- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ F B- A+ 46% 17% 37% D A+ A F C- C+ F A D-
1.15 71% 17% 27% -1 +2 1.04 42% 0.9 .36 17% .52 79% .41 0.98 33% 56% 32% -10 +1 0.85 25% 1.6 .40 18% .40 64% .26
Dec
22		 Northern Iowa C F F F F 40% 21% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A- A- D B- B+ 42% 21% 37% B B+ A+ F B+ D+ A+ D- A+
1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49 0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06
Dec
28		 Loyola Marymount A+ C C+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% C- A B+ A+ A+ A+ A- D- B- F A F D- D 28% 34% 38% A D+ D- F F F C B C+
1.31 56% 38% 50% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .55 10% .36 68% .24 1.23 46% 56% 39% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.4 .46 10% .26 64% .17
Dec
30		 Pepperdine B A- B D+ B+ 47% 19% 34% C- B D A C C F+ A+ C A+ B- B- A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A+ A- C+ B B A+ C+ A+
1.17 68% 44% 31% +5 +1 1.13 28% 1.3 .36 16% .19 100% .19 0.73 53% 33% 18% -14 0 0.75 22% 0.9 .19 21% .08 75% .06
Jan
2		 Portland B+ A F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A C- B- C B- A B A A A- F+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 29% B- A+ D+ A+ A F B- F D+
1.22 71% 25% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 16% .39 76% .30 0.89 50% 46% 7% -13 0 0.75 33% 0.7 .23 14% .27 87% .24
Jan
4		 Seattle A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 13% 29% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F B F F D- 47% 14% 40% D D- A- C B- F A+ D+ A+
1.44 70% 29% 47% +11 +2 1.29 59% 1.2 .72 14% .34 84% .29 1.18 52% 50% 43% +4 +1 1.14 19% 0.9 .17 8% .12 71% .08
Jan
10		 Washington St. B+ D+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% B- A C+ F F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ F+ F C- D- 43% 12% 45% D- D- B+ C B- C D+ C D+
1.24 53% 38% 48% +9 0 1.21 29% 0.6 .18 20% .35 100% .35 1.16 71% 67% 36% +11 +1 1.27 25% 1.0 .25 18% .33 74% .24
Jan
13		 San Francisco A D+ B- A+ A 40% 32% 28% D A- C+ A+ A D+ A+ A+ A+ A C B- D+ C+ 31% 28% 41% A B- A+ F B+ D A+ A+ A+
1.23 53% 40% 54% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.5 .43 15% .44 88% .39 1.02 59% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.6 .29 14% .23 38% .09
Jan
17		 Santa Clara F F C- F F 38% 19% 43% C- F C B- C+ B- A- F C+ A+ B A A+ A+ 42% 31% 27% A A+ A+ A A+ C- F D+ F
0.80 39% 33% 15% -20 0 0.62 30% 1.1 .33 19% .40 64% .26 0.92 55% 33% 23% -7 -1 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 15% .35 75% .26
Jan
21		 Oregon St. A C+ D C B- 48% 13% 39% B B B+ A A+ A- A C A A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 26% 33% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ D- F C- F
1.29 59% 33% 33% 0 +2 1.04 39% 1.2 .48 11% .41 74% .30 0.81 35% 45% 14% -17 -1 0.67 21% 0.5 .10 14% .50 78% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Portland B D B- A+ B+ 46% 17% 37% B- B+ B- F D- C- B A+ A+ C B+ A+ F+ B- 43% 24% 33% B- B- A+ F B F C- F D-
1.15 52% 38% 47% +5 +1 1.13 34% 0.7 .24 18% .34 89% .30 1.06 52% 25% 38% -4 0 0.94 21% 1.4 .30 14% .30 88% .27
Jan
31		 Gonzaga C+ A F D C- 26% 38% 36% F+ D+ D+ D- D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C- A 29% 42% 29% A+ A+ A F C- C+ F+ A C-
0.96 67% 22% 29% -6 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .14 16% .44 92% .40 1.07 71% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 29% 1.5 .45 15% .36 62% .22
Feb
4		 San Diego A+ D+ A A+ A 45% 21% 34% C A- B+ A A+ A- B- A B+ A- D+ A+ F C 33% 27% 40% B- C B A+ A+ C- C- A+ A+
1.36 57% 50% 50% +10 0 1.23 42% 1.3 .55 16% .37 80% .30 0.94 63% 23% 42% +2 -1 1.04 26% 0.5 .13 17% .25 38% .09
Feb
7		 San Francisco B+ D+ B- A+ A- 52% 19% 30% B+ A B+ F+ C+ A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F D+
1.23 54% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 8% .14 75% .10 0.84 40% 22% 25% -15 0 0.71 15% 0.7 .10 9% .27 94% .26
Feb
11		 Pepperdine B F A A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% D- A+ A+ D- A- F A+ F B A A- A+ A- A+ 38% 20% 42% D+ A+ B- B- B- D+ A A+ A+
1.23 44% 50% 54% +12 0 1.26 49% 0.9 .46 21% .39 59% .23 0.84 48% 8% 28% -14 0 0.75 26% 0.8 .22 17% .20 58% .12
Feb
14		 Pacific B+ A F D- D- 31% 25% 44% C+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A A A+ F A+ 50% 20% 30% D A A F C- B+ B+ D- B-
1.13 71% 7% 29% -7 -1 0.85 33% 1.4 .45 6% .24 86% .20 0.96 43% 22% 43% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.3 .36 24% .23 82% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 16.8 18.7 1st
2nd 0.1 5.5 33.1 38.7 2nd
3rd 1.3 10.2 26.7 4.4 42.6 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.3 10.3 32.2 39.4 16.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 16.8    2.6 14.2
15-3 4.6% 1.8    0.0 0.5 1.3
14-4 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 18.7% 18.7 2.6 14.7 1.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 16.8% 87.8% 34.0% 53.9% 8.6 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.4 3.3 1.6 2.0 81.6%
15-3 39.4% 76.3% 17.0% 59.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.1 6.0 9.7 9.5 0.1 9.4 71.4%
14-4 32.2% 61.5% 12.6% 48.9% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.8 10.4 0.1 12.4 56.0%
13-5 10.3% 48.5% 10.9% 37.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.3 0.1 5.3 42.2%
12-6 1.3% 32.8% 8.5% 24.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.9 26.5%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.0% 17.7% 52.3% 9.7 30.0 63.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 7.3 0.7 6.4 23.0 28.2 22.4 13.9 5.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.1% 82.3% 9.3 0.1 1.9 4.5 12.7 24.2 26.7 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 78.2% 9.7 0.7 1.7 10.1 18.2 27.4 20.2
Lose Out 0.2% 4.8% 11.0 4.8