St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#12
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#33
Pace59.7#352
Improvement+0.2#161

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#61
First Shot+2.6#87
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#46
Layup/Dunks+6.5#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#164
Freethrows-1.3#278
Improvement+0.5#95

Defense
Total Defense+10.3#4
First Shot+8.8#4
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#56
Layups/Dunks+0.4#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#2
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement-0.3#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.1% 6.8% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 16.6% 18.4% 3.1%
Top 4 Seed 51.4% 54.6% 27.5%
Top 6 Seed 81.3% 83.7% 63.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.4% 97.8% 94.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.7% 96.2% 91.9%
Average Seed 4.5 4.4 5.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 77.5% 79.6% 61.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 1.0%
First Round97.3% 97.7% 94.5%
Second Round77.7% 78.9% 68.7%
Sweet Sixteen44.3% 45.5% 34.9%
Elite Eight21.6% 22.3% 16.3%
Final Four10.3% 10.7% 7.6%
Championship Game4.7% 4.9% 3.0%
National Champion2.1% 2.2% 1.4%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 02 - 2
Quad 26 - 18 - 3
Quad 311 - 219 - 6
Quad 45 - 024 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 69   Oral Roberts W 78-70 82%     1 - 0 +13.5 +5.1 +8.4
  Nov 10, 2022 146   Vermont W 79-53 93%     2 - 0 +24.5 +13.7 +13.4
  Nov 13, 2022 80   North Texas W 63-33 85%     3 - 0 +33.9 +11.1 +30.7
  Nov 16, 2022 233   Southern W 72-54 97%     4 - 0 +11.6 +5.5 +7.8
  Nov 19, 2022 107   Hofstra W 76-48 90%     5 - 0 +29.0 +1.6 +27.2
  Nov 23, 2022 97   Vanderbilt W 75-65 83%     6 - 0 +14.9 +0.6 +13.9
  Nov 24, 2022 102   Washington L 64-68 OT 84%     6 - 1 +0.3 -9.6 +10.2
  Nov 30, 2022 54   New Mexico L 65-69 78%     6 - 2 +2.8 -4.6 +7.4
  Dec 03, 2022 1   Houston L 48-53 33%     6 - 3 +14.5 -2.6 +15.8
  Dec 07, 2022 136   Missouri St. W 66-46 92%     7 - 3 +19.1 +2.5 +19.4
  Dec 10, 2022 33   San Diego St. W 68-61 61%     8 - 3 +19.2 +6.4 +13.3
  Dec 14, 2022 184   New Mexico St. W 81-68 95%     9 - 3 +9.6 +8.8 +1.3
  Dec 18, 2022 113   Colorado St. L 60-62 90%     9 - 4 -1.3 -1.4 -0.3
  Dec 21, 2022 139   Wyoming W 66-54 89%     10 - 4 +13.7 +1.2 +14.2
  Dec 29, 2022 216   San Diego W 85-58 96%     11 - 4 1 - 0 +22.0 +9.4 +14.0
  Dec 31, 2022 93   @ Santa Clara W 67-64 75%     12 - 4 2 - 0 +11.1 +6.1 +5.3
  Jan 07, 2023 166   Portland W 85-43 94%     13 - 4 3 - 0 +39.4 +14.0 +28.5
  Jan 12, 2023 91   Loyola Marymount W 76-62 87%     14 - 4 4 - 0 +16.7 +12.7 +5.5
  Jan 14, 2023 88   @ San Francisco W 78-61 74%     15 - 4 5 - 0 +25.4 +13.9 +12.6
  Jan 19, 2023 190   @ Pepperdine W 73-44 89%     16 - 4 6 - 0 +30.6 +3.1 +28.4
  Jan 21, 2023 93   Santa Clara W 77-58 87%     17 - 4 7 - 0 +21.6 +18.2 +6.8
  Jan 28, 2023 81   @ BYU W 57-56 71%     18 - 4 8 - 0 +10.3 +3.2 +7.3
  Feb 02, 2023 88   San Francisco W 71-59 88%    
  Feb 04, 2023 13   Gonzaga W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 09, 2023 91   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-59 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 166   @ Portland W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 16, 2023 216   @ San Diego W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 18, 2023 81   BYU W 68-57 86%    
  Feb 23, 2023 208   Pacific W 77-57 97%    
  Feb 25, 2023 13   @ Gonzaga L 68-71 39%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 6.3 27.7 31.3 11.8 77.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 5.2 11.0 4.9 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.8 17.2 32.6 31.3 11.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 11.8    11.8
15-1 100.0% 31.3    31.3
14-2 84.9% 27.7    15.6 12.0
13-3 36.4% 6.3    1.9 4.3 0.1
12-4 7.6% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.1
11-5 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 77.5% 77.5 60.7 16.6 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 11.8% 99.9% 48.9% 51.0% 1.9 4.3 4.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-1 31.3% 99.6% 44.9% 54.7% 3.4 1.7 5.1 8.9 10.9 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
14-2 32.6% 98.1% 39.3% 58.8% 5.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 9.0 9.7 7.0 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6 96.9%
13-3 17.2% 95.2% 35.1% 60.1% 6.4 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 4.7 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.8 92.6%
12-4 5.8% 89.0% 30.8% 58.1% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.6 84.0%
11-5 1.2% 77.9% 27.3% 50.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 69.6%
10-6 0.1% 50.8% 14.8% 36.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.3%
9-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 97.4% 40.8% 56.6% 4.5 6.1 10.5 13.4 21.5 16.8 13.1 8.2 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.2 2.6 95.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.8% 99.9% 1.9 36.6 42.0 17.7 3.5 0.1