St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#41
Expected Predictive Rating+14.9#26
Pace60.9#342
Improvement+1.7#58

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#102
First Shot+2.4#110
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#172
Layup/Dunks+8.7#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#151
Freethrows-1.1#249
Improvement+0.5#118

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#14
First Shot+2.8#94
After Offensive Rebounds+5.2#2
Layups/Dunks-2.8#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#48
Freethrows+1.4#104
Improvement+1.1#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 2.4% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 5.9% 9.0% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 15.5% 22.7% 10.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.0% 78.7% 58.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.5% 76.6% 56.0%
Average Seed 8.4 8.0 8.8
.500 or above 97.7% 99.3% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 91.2% 86.6%
Conference Champion 5.5% 6.6% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Four10.0% 8.6% 11.1%
First Round61.7% 73.9% 52.8%
Second Round31.2% 38.5% 25.8%
Sweet Sixteen10.8% 13.9% 8.5%
Elite Eight3.8% 4.7% 3.1%
Final Four1.4% 1.7% 1.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 42.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 7
Quad 24 - 27 - 8
Quad 38 - 115 - 10
Quad 48 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 242   Prairie View W 87-68 94%     1 - 0 +11.8 +10.0 +1.8
  Nov 12, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 67-58 92%     2 - 0 +4.2 -4.1 +8.8
  Nov 15, 2021 140   Southern Utah W 70-51 86%     3 - 0 +17.9 -4.3 +22.1
  Nov 17, 2021 177   Bellarmine W 73-64 90%     4 - 0 +5.1 -0.8 +6.3
  Nov 22, 2021 63   Notre Dame W 62-59 62%     5 - 0 +10.5 -2.6 +13.4
  Nov 23, 2021 44   Oregon W 62-50 52%     6 - 0 +22.1 -0.5 +23.7
  Nov 24, 2021 29   Wisconsin L 55-61 43%     6 - 1 +6.3 -1.8 +7.3
  Nov 29, 2021 139   UC Riverside W 67-50 86%     7 - 1 +16.0 +9.2 +9.8
  Dec 02, 2021 46   @ Utah St. L 63-65 42%    
  Dec 04, 2021 42   @ Colorado St. L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 11, 2021 118   UC Santa Barbara W 67-57 84%    
  Dec 17, 2021 48   San Diego St. W 58-57 54%    
  Dec 22, 2021 93   Missouri St. W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 28, 2021 121   Yale W 69-58 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 49   San Francisco W 65-61 66%    
  Jan 06, 2022 82   @ Santa Clara W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 08, 2022 20   @ BYU L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 13, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine W 70-59 85%    
  Jan 15, 2022 187   Pacific W 68-53 90%    
  Jan 20, 2022 82   Santa Clara W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 130   @ Loyola Marymount W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 27, 2022 49   @ San Francisco L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 73-56 94%    
  Feb 03, 2022 251   @ Portland W 70-58 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 130   Loyola Marymount W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 10, 2022 153   San Diego W 68-55 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-77 11%    
  Feb 19, 2022 20   BYU L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 153   @ San Diego W 65-58 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 66-74 24%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.4 8.2 5.9 1.3 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 8.7 12.0 4.6 0.4 28.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 8.5 7.6 2.2 0.2 21.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 6.3 3.7 0.8 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.8 0.2 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 6.2 11.0 15.0 17.9 18.7 13.5 8.1 3.3 1.0 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.2
14-2 60.1% 2.0    1.0 1.0 0.0
13-3 22.2% 1.8    0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-4 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.5 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 100.0% 1.5% 98.5% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-1 1.0% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 2.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-2 3.3% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 4.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-3 8.1% 99.7% 14.5% 85.2% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.6%
12-4 13.5% 95.5% 10.9% 84.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 94.9%
11-5 18.7% 87.2% 7.5% 79.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.9 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 2.4 86.1%
10-6 17.9% 72.0% 5.5% 66.5% 9.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.3 3.0 3.4 3.4 0.8 0.1 5.0 70.3%
9-7 15.0% 50.7% 3.0% 47.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.7 1.2 0.0 7.4 49.2%
8-8 11.0% 36.2% 1.8% 34.4% 10.7 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 0.6 7.0 35.1%
7-9 6.2% 11.8% 0.7% 11.2% 11.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.5 11.2%
6-10 3.0% 3.7% 0.7% 3.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9 3.0%
5-11 1.5% 1.5
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 67.0% 6.9% 60.0% 8.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.9 4.6 5.1 5.9 7.4 11.3 11.7 11.7 3.4 0.1 0.0 33.0 64.5%