St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.4 #42
Expected Predictive Rating +15.0 #32
Pace 64.2 #312
Improvement -2.0 #283

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #60 B- A+ A C+ C+
Defense #31 A+ B+ B+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.19 #144 +2.6 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.71 #223 -0.6 #210
Three Pointers 38% #243 1.12 #58 +0.5 #162
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.6 #106
Freethrows 21.1 #25 83% #2 17.5 #5
Second Chance 38.3% #22 1.13 #91 0.43 #27
Turnovers 15.7% #118
Total Offense +5.8 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #211 0.98 #18 +3.9 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #42 0.76 #191 -2.2 #324
Three Pointers 36% #303 0.81 #15 +6.1 #15
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #15 +7.9 #15
Freethrows 12.8 #21 78% #354 10.0 #38
Second Chance 25.8% #38 0.97 #93 0.25 #38
Turnovers 15.3% #270
Total Defense +6.6 #31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #147 -1.5% #59
Shot Type Make % Effect 4.4% #115 -14.0% #10
Possession Length 17.9 #242 17.8 #261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #180 0.18 #197
Improvement -0.6 #221 -1.4 #272

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 2.6% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.8% 48.8% 34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.9% 38.0% 24.0%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.8%
Conference Champion 15.4% 16.9% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.2% 15.6% 12.8%
First Round39.8% 41.7% 27.8%
Second Round18.2% 19.2% 11.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 4.8% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Home) - 85.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 27 - 6
Quad 311 - 117 - 7
Quad 48 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 133 St. Thomas W 84-58 89%     10.9   1 - 0 +24.6 +16.8 +9.9
  Fri, Nov 7 262 Chattanooga W 87-66 96%     11.9   2 - 0 +12.1 +12.0 +0.9
  Tue, Nov 11 174 Ohio W 90-60 93%     14.8   3 - 0 +25.9 +16.5 +9.7
  Fri, Nov 14 138 North Texas W 80-49 90%     22.7   4 - 0 +29.2 +15.6 +15.1
  Wed, Nov 19 137 Arkansas St. W 85-72 90%     7.4   5 - 0 +11.3 +11.8 -0.3
  Wed, Nov 26 94 Wichita St. W 70-65 74%     2.5   6 - 0 +10.7 +0.2 +10.6
  Thu, Nov 27 60 Virginia Tech W 77-66 63%     8.1   7 - 0 +19.9 +11.4 +8.9
  Fri, Nov 28 7 Vanderbilt L 71-96 22%     -12.8   7 - 1 -4.6 +4.4 -8.2
  Sun, Dec 7 139 @Davidson W 70-61 78%     0.8   8 - 1 +13.2 +6.4 +7.7
  Sun, Dec 14 52 Boise St. L 67-68 58%     -5.6   8 - 2 +9.4 +2.8 +6.5
  Fri, Dec 19 106 Florida Atlantic W 88-75 84%     10.1   9 - 2 +14.6 +7.3 +6.2
  Mon, Dec 22 92 Northern Iowa W 63-58 81%     -1.9   10 - 2 +7.9 +4.6 +3.9
  Sun, Dec 28 121 @Loyola Marymount W 78-73 74%     1.0   11 - 2 1 - 0 +10.7 +23.9 -12.3
  Tue, Dec 30 275 @Pepperdine W 72-45 92%     11.6   12 - 2 2 - 0 +23.5 +10.4 +17.0
  Fri, Jan 2 251 Portland W 78-57 96%     13.7   13 - 2 3 - 0 +12.7 +9.0 +5.6
  Sun, Jan 4 112 Seattle W 73-61 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 148 Washington St. W 78-63 92%    
  Tue, Jan 13 95 @San Francisco W 71-67 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 68 @Santa Clara W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 190 Oregon St. W 77-60 94%    
  Sat, Jan 24 251 @Portland W 79-64 91%    
  Sat, Jan 31 6 @Gonzaga L 70-81 15%    
  Wed, Feb 4 214 San Diego W 83-64 96%    
  Sat, Feb 7 95 San Francisco W 74-64 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 275 Pepperdine W 79-57 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 132 @Pacific W 73-65 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 112 @Seattle W 70-64 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 148 @Washington St. W 75-66 79%    
  Wed, Feb 25 68 Santa Clara W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 6 Gonzaga L 73-78 32%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 2.6 6.5 5.1 0.8 15.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 11.2 19.7 18.8 7.3 60.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.4 6.0 2.3 0.2 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.0 10.8 17.5 22.5 21.6 13.8 5.1 0.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 5.1    3.3 1.8
16-2 46.8% 6.5    2.6 3.8 0.0
15-3 12.0% 2.6    0.6 1.8 0.2
14-4 1.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 7.3 7.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 95.6% 35.4% 60.1% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.1%
17-1 5.1% 92.3% 31.4% 60.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.4 88.8%
16-2 13.8% 78.0% 26.3% 51.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.2 2.1 0.0 3.0 70.1%
15-3 21.6% 60.4% 20.8% 39.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.1 4.8 5.1 0.1 8.6 50.1%
14-4 22.5% 43.5% 15.4% 28.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 5.7 0.1 12.7 33.2%
13-5 17.5% 29.2% 12.1% 17.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 0.2 12.4 19.5%
12-6 10.8% 18.3% 8.3% 10.0% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.2 8.9 10.9%
11-7 5.0% 9.5% 6.0% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.6 3.8%
10-8 2.0% 5.3% 4.0% 1.3% 11.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.3%
9-9 0.7% 4.5% 4.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 46.8% 16.9% 29.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.4 6.6 12.8 18.9 0.6 0.0 53.2 35.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.8 1.8 14.3 19.6 41.1 19.6 1.8 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 96.3% 6.0 1.3 11.3 22.5 32.5 15.0 7.5 5.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 81.8% 6.2 4.5 4.5 22.7 9.1 27.3 9.1 4.5