St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#59
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#153
Pace59.9#352
Improvement-0.6#230

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#110
First Shot-1.5#219
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#24
Layup/Dunks+5.7#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#362
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement+0.8#111

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#26
First Shot+8.7#8
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#329
Layups/Dunks-1.4#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#36
Freethrows+2.9#37
Improvement-1.5#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 19.2% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 5.1% 1.6%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 12.1
.500 or above 89.5% 91.6% 74.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 93.8% 89.4%
Conference Champion 14.6% 15.4% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four1.9% 1.9% 1.3%
First Round17.5% 18.4% 10.9%
Second Round6.8% 7.2% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 8
Quad 37 - 311 - 11
Quad 47 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 42   New Mexico W 72-58 51%     1 - 0 +22.1 +5.2 +17.5
  Nov 12, 2023 117   Weber St. L 57-61 79%     1 - 1 -3.9 -10.2 +6.0
  Nov 17, 2023 28   San Diego St. L 54-79 35%     1 - 2 -12.6 -4.5 -11.1
  Nov 19, 2023 45   Xavier L 49-66 42%     1 - 3 -6.5 -14.8 +7.4
  Nov 24, 2023 123   Davidson W 89-55 79%     2 - 3 +33.8 +25.0 +12.9
  Nov 27, 2023 38   Utah L 71-78 50%     2 - 4 +1.4 +3.4 -2.1
  Dec 01, 2023 76   Boise St. L 60-63 55%     2 - 5 +4.2 -0.8 +4.7
  Dec 05, 2023 193   Cleveland St. W 70-57 88%    
  Dec 09, 2023 21   @ Colorado St. L 64-72 23%    
  Dec 16, 2023 126   UNLV W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 19, 2023 221   Middle Tennessee W 65-51 90%    
  Dec 21, 2023 186   Northern Kentucky W 69-56 87%    
  Dec 23, 2023 111   Missouri St. W 68-60 75%    
  Dec 29, 2023 108   Kent St. W 68-61 75%    
  Jan 04, 2024 215   @ San Diego W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 125   @ Loyola Marymount W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 11, 2024 171   Portland W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 13, 2024 135   @ Santa Clara W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 20, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 62-64 41%    
  Jan 25, 2024 311   Pacific W 75-55 96%    
  Jan 27, 2024 125   Loyola Marymount W 70-61 78%    
  Jan 31, 2024 135   Santa Clara W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 03, 2024 10   @ Gonzaga L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 06, 2024 311   @ Pacific W 72-58 89%    
  Feb 10, 2024 171   @ Portland W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 15, 2024 182   Pepperdine W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 20, 2024 69   San Francisco W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 24, 2024 215   San Diego W 73-59 88%    
  Feb 29, 2024 182   @ Pepperdine W 71-65 72%    
  Mar 02, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.9 5.4 2.9 0.7 14.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 9.4 12.8 9.3 2.5 37.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.2 9.0 7.9 3.3 0.3 25.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.1 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.9 6.9 11.0 14.8 17.9 17.6 13.6 7.9 2.9 0.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 2.9    2.4 0.5
14-2 68.1% 5.4    3.2 2.1 0.0
13-3 28.9% 3.9    1.4 2.2 0.4
12-4 8.7% 1.5    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.6% 14.6 7.9 5.7 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 90.2% 43.4% 46.8% 4.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 82.7%
15-1 2.9% 72.1% 33.4% 38.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 58.1%
14-2 7.9% 43.8% 26.0% 17.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.3 4.4 24.1%
13-3 13.6% 28.2% 21.7% 6.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 9.7 8.4%
12-4 17.6% 17.1% 15.9% 1.2% 11.5 0.1 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 14.6 1.4%
11-5 17.9% 13.2% 12.7% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 15.5 0.6%
10-6 14.8% 9.1% 9.1% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 13.5
9-7 11.0% 8.5% 8.5% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.1
8-8 6.9% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.5
7-9 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 3.7
6-10 1.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.7
5-11 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.3% 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 18.3% 14.3% 4.0% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 2.0 6.3 4.4 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 81.7 4.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 21.1 17.9 31.6 23.2 6.3