St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#41
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#42
Pace65.2#294
Improvement-1.9#307

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#69
First Shot+2.5#111
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#52
Layup/Dunks+2.0#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#235
Freethrows+4.4#11
Improvement-2.0#322

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#19
First Shot+4.1#58
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#12
Layups/Dunks-1.3#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#38
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 2.9% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.8% 39.7% 25.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.8% 29.6% 16.7%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.3% 97.9%
Conference Champion 11.3% 11.7% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.4% 12.8% 9.8%
First Round32.2% 33.9% 21.0%
Second Round15.5% 16.5% 8.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 4.7% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 311 - 117 - 7
Quad 48 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 131 St. Thomas W 84-58 89%     1 - 0 +24.7 +16.9 +9.9
  Fri, Nov 7 247 Chattanooga W 87-66 96%     2 - 0 +13.0 +11.9 +1.9
  Tue, Nov 11 177 Ohio W 90-60 93%     3 - 0 +25.8 +14.4 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 14 146 North Texas W 80-49 90%     4 - 0 +29.0 +14.1 +16.3
  Wed, Nov 19 141 Arkansas St. W 85-72 90%     5 - 0 +11.2 +12.0 -0.6
  Wed, Nov 26 100 Wichita St. W 70-65 75%     6 - 0 +9.9 +0.9 +9.1
  Thu, Nov 27 64 Virginia Tech W 77-66 63%     7 - 0 +19.7 +10.1 +9.9
  Fri, Nov 28 10 Vanderbilt L 71-96 28%     7 - 1 -6.8 +3.5 -9.4
  Sun, Dec 7 126 @Davidson W 70-61 74%     8 - 1 +14.3 +6.1 +9.1
  Sun, Dec 14 46 Boise St. L 67-68 53%     8 - 2 +10.2 +3.1 +7.1
  Fri, Dec 19 118 Florida Atlantic W 79-67 87%    
  Mon, Dec 22 93 Northern Iowa W 66-57 81%    
  Sun, Dec 28 145 @Loyola Marymount W 70-62 78%    
  Tue, Dec 30 294 @Pepperdine W 74-58 94%    
  Fri, Jan 2 246 Portland W 82-62 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 123 Seattle W 75-63 87%    
  Sat, Jan 10 149 Washington St. W 78-64 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 94 @San Francisco W 70-67 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 77 @Santa Clara W 73-71 56%    
  Wed, Jan 21 165 Oregon St. W 75-60 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 246 @Portland W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 5 @Gonzaga L 67-80 13%    
  Wed, Feb 4 245 San Diego W 84-64 97%    
  Sat, Feb 7 94 San Francisco W 73-64 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 294 Pepperdine W 77-55 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 138 @Pacific W 72-64 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 123 @Seattle W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 149 @Washington St. W 75-67 78%    
  Wed, Feb 25 77 Santa Clara W 76-68 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 5 Gonzaga L 70-77 27%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.5 4.2 0.6 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.9 11.8 18.4 17.0 6.7 58.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 6.8 5.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.2 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.9 7.4 12.8 17.7 20.9 18.9 11.2 4.2 0.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 4.2    2.6 1.6
16-2 40.2% 4.5    1.6 2.9 0.0
15-3 9.0% 1.7    0.4 1.2 0.1
14-4 1.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 5.2 5.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 98.2% 40.1% 58.1% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0%
17-1 4.2% 90.7% 30.0% 60.7% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 86.7%
16-2 11.2% 76.8% 22.8% 54.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.7 0.0 2.6 69.9%
15-3 18.9% 54.2% 17.9% 36.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.3 4.2 0.1 8.7 44.2%
14-4 20.9% 38.5% 14.8% 23.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.9 0.2 12.8 27.9%
13-5 17.7% 23.2% 10.9% 12.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 0.2 13.6 13.8%
12-6 12.8% 13.5% 6.7% 6.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.2 11.1 7.3%
11-7 7.4% 7.1% 5.2% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 6.9 2.0%
10-8 3.9% 4.4% 4.0% 0.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 3.7 0.4%
9-9 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.6
8-10 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.8% 13.9% 23.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 4.6 9.2 15.9 0.9 62.2 27.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.9 20.0 18.2 27.3 21.8 10.9 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 96.7% 5.2 1.7 8.3 30.0 21.7 11.7 16.7 3.3 3.3