Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#194
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#104
Pace66.7#257
Improvement-2.7#329

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#122
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#261
Layup/Dunks-3.8#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#98
Freethrows+4.7#7
Improvement-1.9#315

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#311
First Shot-5.1#337
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#95
Layups/Dunks-1.1#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#331
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement-0.8#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.7% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 93.7% 97.1% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 60.8% 70.1% 42.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.5% 3.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 2.7% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 55 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 203 Southern Miss W 85-79 65%     1 - 0 +0.0 +14.5 -14.1
  Fri, Nov 7 265 Green Bay W 83-76 73%     2 - 0 -1.6 +12.0 -13.0
  Tue, Nov 11 113 @DePaul W 66-53 21%     3 - 0 +19.4 +0.7 +19.1
  Tue, Nov 18 179 Vermont W 94-90 58%     4 - 0 -0.3 +12.2 -12.7
  Mon, Nov 24 331 VMI W 78-70 78%     5 - 0 -2.2 +2.0 -3.7
  Wed, Nov 26 308 Bucknell W 73-71 73%     6 - 0 -6.4 +8.7 -14.8
  Sat, Nov 29 340 @Canisius W 71-53 72%     7 - 0 +9.8 +3.2 +8.2
  Sat, Dec 6 114 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 40%     7 - 1 -7.7 -0.8 -7.2
  Tue, Dec 9 290 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 57%     8 - 1 +0.0 +12.1 -11.9
  Sun, Dec 14 258 @East Carolina L 70-73 51%     8 - 2 -5.3 +0.1 -5.5
  Sat, Dec 20 282 @Western Michigan W 88-71 55%     9 - 2 1 - 0 +13.6 +18.2 -3.4
  Tue, Dec 30 327 @Northern Illinois W 80-75 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 306 Ball St. W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 190 @Ohio L 76-79 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 122 Kent St. L 80-82 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 104 @Miami (OH) L 75-84 19%    
  Tue, Jan 20 59 Akron L 81-89 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 163 Massachusetts W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Jan 27 117 @Bowling Green L 69-77 22%    
  Sat, Jan 31 190 Ohio W 79-76 60%    
  Tue, Feb 3 104 Miami (OH) L 78-81 38%    
  Wed, Feb 11 306 @Ball St. W 73-70 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 327 Northern Illinois W 83-72 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 163 @Massachusetts L 74-79 33%    
  Tue, Feb 24 59 @Akron L 78-92 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 322 Central Michigan W 80-69 83%    
  Tue, Mar 3 217 Eastern Michigan W 75-70 66%    
  Fri, Mar 6 169 @Toledo L 77-82 34%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 5.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.7 4.1 0.5 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 7.1 5.1 0.7 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.8 5.5 1.0 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.7 5.0 1.3 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.2 1.3 0.1 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.9 7.1 11.5 14.4 16.7 15.4 12.3 8.3 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 93.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-3 60.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.1% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 6.9% 6.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.7% 11.6% 11.6% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-4 2.3% 8.7% 8.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 4.8% 6.1% 6.1% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
12-6 8.3% 5.6% 5.6% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.9
11-7 12.3% 3.4% 3.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.9
10-8 15.4% 2.3% 2.3% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 15.1
9-9 16.7% 1.9% 1.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 16.4
8-10 14.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.3
7-11 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 7.1% 7.1
5-13 3.9% 3.9
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 97.7 0.0%