Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #179
Expected Predictive Rating +5.1 #99
Pace 66.4 #257
Improvement -1.6 #271

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #110 B- A+ C C B+
Defense #296 D C C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.11 #231 +0.5 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #320 0.80 #116 -2.3 #295
Three Pointers 46% #99 1.12 #49 +4.8 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #96 +3.1 #96
Freethrows 22.3 #11 76% #82 16.9 #9
Second Chance 28.0% #257 1.15 #71 0.32 #171
Turnovers 16.2% #153
Total Offense +2.3 #110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.24 #280 -1.0 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #352 0.86 #314 +2.0 #53
Three Pointers 49% #23 1.05 #230 -5.0 #339
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #299 -4.0 #298
Freethrows 15.8 #107 80% #362 12.6 #172
Second Chance 32.5% #251 0.96 #84 0.31 #166
Turnovers 16.4% #195
Total Defense -3.8 #296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #53 1.7% #316
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.7% #127 6.1% #291
Possession Length 18.0 #249 17.6 #240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #148 0.21 #300
Improvement -1.0 #257 -0.5 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.6% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 96.3% 99.1% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 88.5% 67.6%
Conference Champion 3.6% 7.0% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.5% 4.6% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 36.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 34 - 66 - 9
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 201 Southern Miss W 85-79 65%     -2.8   1 - 0 +0.6 +15.7 -14.7
  Fri, Nov 7 252 Green Bay W 83-76 74%     2.6   2 - 0 -1.1 +11.3 -11.8
  Tue, Nov 11 103 @DePaul W 66-53 19%     12.2   3 - 0 +20.9 +2.4 +18.9
  Tue, Nov 18 198 Vermont W 94-90 65%     0.4   4 - 0 -1.3 +12.6 -14.1
  Mon, Nov 24 331 VMI W 78-70 81%     1.3   5 - 0 -2.7 +2.8 -5.1
  Wed, Nov 26 316 Bucknell W 73-71 77%     10.1   6 - 0 -7.2 +9.5 -16.5
  Sat, Nov 29 336 @Canisius W 71-53 74%     8.0   7 - 0 +9.7 +1.6 +9.7
  Sat, Dec 6 119 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 45%     -6.8   7 - 1 -8.3 -2.4 -6.2
  Tue, Dec 9 268 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 57%     -0.9   8 - 1 +0.8 +12.5 -11.5
  Sun, Dec 14 266 @East Carolina L 70-73 56%     8.2   8 - 2 -6.1 -0.4 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 20 265 @Western Michigan W 88-71 56%     9.9   9 - 2 1 - 0 +14.0 +18.5 -3.4
  Wed, Dec 31 325 @Northern Illinois W 81-67 71%     7.1   10 - 2 2 - 0 +6.9 +7.3 +0.0
  Sat, Jan 3 312 Ball St. W 85-72 84%     14.3   11 - 2 3 - 0 +0.8 +13.8 -11.9
  Sat, Jan 10 171 @Ohio L 75-79 37%    
  Tue, Jan 13 138 Kent St. W 82-81 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 98 @Miami (OH) L 74-84 19%    
  Tue, Jan 20 68 Akron L 80-87 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 166 Massachusetts W 79-77 58%    
  Tue, Jan 27 124 @Bowling Green L 73-80 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 171 Ohio W 78-76 59%    
  Tue, Feb 3 98 Miami (OH) L 77-81 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 199 @South Alabama L 69-71 42%    
  Wed, Feb 11 312 @Ball St. W 74-69 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 325 Northern Illinois W 82-70 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 166 @Massachusetts L 76-80 37%    
  Tue, Feb 24 68 @Akron L 77-90 12%    
  Sat, Feb 28 323 Central Michigan W 80-68 86%    
  Tue, Mar 3 196 Eastern Michigan W 74-70 64%    
  Fri, Mar 6 169 @Toledo L 77-81 37%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 3.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.6 4.4 0.7 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 6.7 6.1 0.9 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.8 7.2 1.6 0.0 15.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.2 6.9 2.2 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.4 2.3 0.2 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.3 1.8 0.2 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 7.6 12.4 16.6 18.0 16.3 11.7 7.3 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 76.6% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 40.7% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-5 8.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 18.5% 18.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.4% 11.4% 11.4% 12.6 0.1 0.1 1.2
14-4 3.6% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.2
13-5 7.3% 7.8% 7.8% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.7
12-6 11.7% 5.9% 5.9% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 11.0
11-7 16.3% 3.3% 3.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 15.8
10-8 18.0% 3.1% 3.1% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 17.5
9-9 16.6% 1.9% 1.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.3
8-10 12.4% 1.1% 1.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.2
7-11 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.6
6-12 3.4% 3.4
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 96.5 0.0%