Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.4 201
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 185
Pace 66.9 234
Improvement -2.8 292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 126 B- C- C+ B C+
Defense D+ 292 D- C C+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 184 C- 57% 202 -0.5 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 223 B- 42% 67 -0.7 213
Three Pointers 44% 110 B 38% 36 +4.2 49
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 129 B- +2.5 93
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 88
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 282 C+ 1.06 134 C- 0.28 244
Turnovers C+ 16.5% 156
Freethrows B 0.34 68 C+ 74% 130 B 0.25 59
Total Offense C+ +1.5 126

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 143 D 63% 308 +2.8 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 323 C- 40% 253 -1.6 63
Three Pointers 44% 76 D 37% 302 +3.7 330
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 299 D +4.0 321
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 329
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 285 B- 0.96 82 C 0.32 197
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 145
Freethrows B 0.27 57 D+ 74% 300 B- 0.20 89
Total Defense D+ -3.9 292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 182 17.7 254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 140 0.21 319
Improvement -3.5 #330 +0.7 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 93% 96% 72%
.500 or above in Conference 35% 39% 8%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 32 - 54 - 10
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 242 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 69% -3  28% 1 - 0 C -1 A +13 B B A F -14 F D B
 Fri, Nov 7 235 Green Bay W 83 - 76 68% +3  79% 2 - 0 C -0 B+ +8 B C+ B+ D -7 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 96 @DePaul W 66 - 53 16% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +21 C- -1 D- B B- A+ +23 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 218 Vermont W 94 - 90 64% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -2 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -13 F C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 359 VMI W 78 - 70 89% +1  45% 5 - 0 D+ -8 D+ -3 D D D+ D+ -4 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 326 Bucknell W 73 - 71 78% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -8 B- +5 B- F A F -13 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 346 @Canisius W 71 - 53 75% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +8 C- -0 D C- B- A +10 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 135 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 46% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -9 D- -6 B B F D+ -4 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 238 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 46% -1  36% 8 - 1 C+ +3 A +12 A+ C- D D- -9 F F+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 244 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 46% +8  76% 8 - 2 C- -5 D+ -4 F+ C D C -1 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 282 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 56% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +14 C+ B+ A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 329 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 69% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 B- +6 B +7 B B+ D- C -0 D+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 314 Ball St. W 85 - 72 82% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C +1 A +13 A+ A+ D+ F+ -11 D F B
 Sat, Jan 10 211 @Ohio L 80 - 91 40% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D -11 C +0 D+ C B- F+ -11 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 146 Kent St. L 81 - 87 50% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -8 C+ +3 C D+ A+ F -12 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 87 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 13% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +7 A +12 A+ D- C D+ -5 F A+ D
 Tue, Jan 20 78 Akron L 63 - 82 25% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -13 F+ F+ C C -2 D A+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 179 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 57% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -5 D- -7 B- C- C- C+ +2 B C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 155 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 30% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +14 A+ +21 A+ D+ A D -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 211 Ohio L 83 - 95 63% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F -18 C+ +2 A C- D F -20 F D+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 87 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 28% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C +2 D+ -3 A- F F B +5 D- A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 180 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 34% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -10 D+ -4 C F D D -7 F C C+
 Wed, Feb 11 314 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 64% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 C+ +4 C- -1 C- D+ C B+ +7 C C- A
 Tue, Feb 17 329 Northern Illinois W 79 - 68 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 179 @Massachusetts L 78 - 82 34%
 Tue, Feb 24 78 @Akron L 76 - 89 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 272 Central Michigan W 80 - 73 74%
 Tue, Mar 3 247 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 70 69%
 Fri, Mar 6 171 @Toledo L 77 - 82 33%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -2 C+ +1 A- B- C+ D+ -4 B C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- B- B B- 38% 34% 44% C+ B- D+ C+ C- C+ B C+ B D+ D C- D D 40% 16% 44% D D- D+ B- C C+ B D+ B-
1.11 57% 42% 38% +3 0 1.08 27% 1.1 .28 16% .34 74% .25 1.14 63% 40% 37% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .32 17% .27 74% .26
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D- A+ A B 36% 7% 58% B+ B A D+ B A A+ C+ A+ F D F D- F 49% 13% 38% F F C+ F D B D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ B- B- A- B- 49% 13% 38% A- B C- A- C+ B+ A+ F A+ D F F F F 38% 4% 58% F+ F A A+ A+ C+ D F+ F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +13 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C- F B C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ D- D+ A+ B B- A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B 32% 17% 51% C B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F A- F C- C F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +13 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- B+ F+ 45% 5% 50% A D F+ B- D D+ A+ B A+ D+ C- F+ A+ B+ 30% 17% 53% B- B+ F F F F D- C+ D
1.17 50% 50% 40% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A C 35% 8% 56% A- B- D+ F F A B C B F F A- F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D+ B A+ A
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C- D C C D 23% 10% 67% C D F A+ C- B- C A+ B A B- F+ A+ A 40% 23% 36% D+ A- B F D+ C- C D+ C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D- A D C B 43% 13% 43% B+ B F+ A+ B F F+ F F D+ F+ B D D+ 36% 18% 47% D+ D F A- D- A+ C F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A+ C+ F+ C- D A A+ A+ D- D+ F D F 30% 23% 47% B- F F+ F+ F+ C+ A+ F A-
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A+ C F 39% 16% 45% B F+ B D- C D A+ C+ A+ C A+ C A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D A D F+ F F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A+ A F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C A+ B+ A+ A B A C C- C+ C C- 35% 14% 51% D D+ C+ A+ A+ F A- D+ B+
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B C F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B C+ A B+ D- A D+ A- C F F A+ C- 38% 4% 58% D- D+ C+ A B+ D+ B F D
1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A B+ A+ A+ A 43% 9% 48% A A+ C A+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F+ A B+ F+ D- 31% 16% 53% C D F D- F B F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C D- A D+ D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C+ C- C B- B- F C- F+ F F F F 43% 26% 32% C- F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. C+ C F A C+ 38% 22% 40% C- C F A+ D+ A+ A D+ A- F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F C- D+ D+ D+ A- D B+
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% D+ A+ D- D- D- C B+ A A D+ F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ D D+ A+ B
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F+ 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C- F F+ C D- D D- C C B+ F D 29% 12% 59% C D B+ A+ A+ B F+ B- D-
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 0 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B+ 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- C- F F F C+ D A- B+ B- 36% 28% 36% B+ B D+ B C C+ B- B+ B
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ D- B D+ A A- B+ A D D+ A+ C- C 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D+ B A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C+ B+ A A A 48% 26% 26% C- A F A+ C- D A+ D+ A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C- F F B- D+ F F F F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) D+ A- D+ A A- 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F B+ B- B+ B F F A- F+ 43% 20% 37% C D- A- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D+ C F+ B- C+ 9% 18% 74% F C F+ F F D F F F D B F F F 49% 10% 41% F+ F A- F C C+ F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C- C B- D D+ 43% 12% 45% A- C- C- C- D+ C A- A+ A+ B+ A- A+ C B- 45% 11% 43% F C F+ B+ C- A A+ F+ A-
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.8 3.9 0.7 5.4 4th
5th 0.2 6.1 3.3 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 3.6 12.3 0.8 16.7 6th
7th 2.1 17.2 6.1 0.0 25.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 16.6 14.5 0.3 33.5 8th
9th 0.2 3.6 3.7 0.2 7.7 9th
10th 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.7 6.6 22.4 35.7 25.7 8.0 0.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.8% 3.6% 3.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 8.0% 3.7% 3.7% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
9-9 25.7% 3.2% 3.2% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 24.9
8-10 35.7% 1.7% 1.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 35.1
7-11 22.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.1 0.0 22.3
6-12 6.6% 6.6
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.3 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.7%