Buffalo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#331
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#236
Pace71.6#107
Improvement+0.9#128

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#283
First Shot-2.9#263
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#249
Layup/Dunks+3.3#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#262
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement-0.1#195

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#336
First Shot-6.9#354
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#91
Layups/Dunks-0.4#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.2#359
Freethrows+2.3#55
Improvement+1.0#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 14.9 15.8
.500 or above 2.4% 8.0% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.6% 18.1% 10.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 35.6% 24.0% 36.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 78 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 317   @ Old Dominion W 83-82 35%     1 - 0 -4.8 +3.6 -8.5
  Nov 11, 2024 80   @ Notre Dame L 77-86 4%     1 - 1 +0.9 +0.5 +1.3
  Nov 14, 2024 176   Bryant L 64-87 28%     1 - 2 -26.8 -17.5 -7.0
  Nov 19, 2024 183   @ Vermont L 67-78 14%     1 - 3 -9.1 +3.0 -12.9
  Nov 22, 2024 340   Morgan St. W 82-73 67%     2 - 3 -5.2 +3.2 -8.2
  Nov 25, 2024 311   N.C. A&T W 82-81 55%     3 - 3 -10.1 -7.0 -3.2
  Dec 01, 2024 31   @ Penn St. L 64-87 2%     3 - 4 -7.1 -1.1 -6.0
  Dec 07, 2024 88   @ St. Bonaventure L 61-80 4%    
  Dec 19, 2024 38   @ Georgia L 62-87 1%    
  Dec 29, 2024 118   @ Temple L 68-84 7%    
  Jan 04, 2025 198   @ Miami (OH) L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 07, 2025 157   Ohio L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 110   Kent St. L 63-73 17%    
  Jan 14, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 18, 2025 271   @ Western Michigan L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 131   Akron L 74-82 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 299   @ Eastern Michigan L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 28, 2025 196   Central Michigan L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 270   Ball St. L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 04, 2025 203   @ Toledo L 74-85 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 267   Bowling Green L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 18, 2025 271   Western Michigan L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 270   @ Ball St. L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 25, 2025 196   @ Central Michigan L 67-78 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 203   Toledo L 77-82 34%    
  Mar 04, 2025 198   Miami (OH) L 70-75 32%    
  Mar 07, 2025 131   @ Akron L 71-85 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.7 4.6 0.9 0.0 16.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 5.4 7.7 5.1 1.2 0.1 21.4 11th
12th 1.4 4.5 7.4 6.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 24.3 12th
Total 1.4 4.7 9.2 12.6 14.8 15.0 13.3 10.5 7.7 4.8 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 68.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 44.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 31.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 6.4% 6.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 8.9% 8.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.8
9-9 4.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.7
8-10 7.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.6
7-11 10.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.3
5-13 15.0% 15.0
4-14 14.8% 14.8
3-15 12.6% 12.6
2-16 9.2% 9.2
1-17 4.7% 4.7
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%