Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #192
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 #118
Pace 67.1 #237
Improvement -2.5 #304

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 B- C C+ A+ B
Defense #307 D- C- C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #126 1.11 #235 +0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.83 #82 -1.9 #272
Three Pointers 45% #99 1.11 #64 +4.4 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.7 #106
Freethrows 22.1 #13 75% #117 16.5 #11
Second Chance 28.3% #249 1.16 #59 0.33 #153
Turnovers 16.1% #142
Total Offense +2.3 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.26 #291 -1.6 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #346 0.87 #326 +1.5 #81
Three Pointers 48% #31 1.05 #237 -4.4 #341
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #312 -4.5 #312
Freethrows 16.0 #122 80% #364 12.9 #162
Second Chance 33.8% #290 1.00 #119 0.34 #232
Turnovers 17.0% #151
Total Defense -4.2 #307

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #65 1.6% #310
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #134 7.1% #305
Possession Length 17.8 #226 17.6 #232
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #144 0.21 #293
Improvement -1.3 #263 -1.2 #257

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 94.6% 98.3% 90.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 80.5% 53.6%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.5% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 33 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 208 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 65%  -3  1 - 0 +0 +16 A- B A+ -15 F D A-
 Fri, Nov 7 243 Green Bay W 83 - 76 71%  +3  2 - 0 -1 +11 A- B- B -12 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 99 @DePaul W 66 - 53 17%  +12  3 - 0 +21 +3 F B A- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 198 Vermont W 94 - 90 62%  +0  4 - 0 -1 +13 A+ F C -14 F C B-
 Mon, Nov 24 338 VMI W 78 - 70 81%  +1  5 - 0 -3 +3 C- D- C- -6 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 316 Bucknell W 73 - 71 76%  +10  6 - 0 -7 +10 C+ F A -17 F F B
 Sat, Nov 29 337 @Canisius W 71 - 53 72%  +8  7 - 0 +10 +2 C- C- D+ +9 A- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 125 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 46%  -7  7 - 1 -9 -3 A- C F -6 D- C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 275 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 57%  -1  8 - 1 +0 +12 A+ D D- -11 F D- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 264 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 53%  +8  8 - 2 -6 -0 D- C D- -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 248 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 51%  +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +19 B A- A+ -3 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 326 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 70%  +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +7 B- C+ F -0 C A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Ball St. W 85 - 72 83%  +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +1 +14 A+ A+ D -12 D F B
 Sat, Jan 10 163 @Ohio L 80 - 91 34%  -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -9 +5 C- C C+ -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 150 Kent St. W 83 - 82 52% 
 Sat, Jan 17 94 @Miami (OH) L 75 - 86 16% 
 Tue, Jan 20 62 Akron L 80 - 88 23% 
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Massachusetts W 80 - 78 58% 
 Tue, Jan 27 132 @Bowling Green L 74 - 80 27% 
 Sat, Jan 31 163 Ohio W 80 - 78 56% 
 Tue, Feb 3 94 Miami (OH) L 78 - 83 33% 
 Sat, Feb 7 189 @South Alabama L 70 - 73 38% 
 Wed, Feb 11 313 @Ball St. W 74 - 70 64% 
 Tue, Feb 17 326 Northern Illinois W 82 - 71 85% 
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Massachusetts L 77 - 81 36% 
 Tue, Feb 24 62 @Akron L 77 - 91 10% 
 Sat, Feb 28 317 Central Michigan W 80 - 70 83% 
 Tue, Mar 3 218 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 71 65% 
 Fri, Mar 6 177 @Toledo L 77 - 81 37% 
Totals 18 - 11 9 - 9 -2 +2 B- C C+ -4 D- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.0 2.8 0.3 13.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 8.2 4.1 0.4 15.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 8.2 5.7 0.7 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.6 6.5 0.9 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.4 3.8 5.7 1.2 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.1 1.2 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 9.8 15.8 19.2 18.5 14.5 8.8 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 74.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 37.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.4% 9.6% 9.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-5 4.5% 6.4% 6.4% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.2
12-6 8.8% 4.8% 4.8% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.4
11-7 14.5% 3.3% 3.3% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 14.1
10-8 18.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 18.0
9-9 19.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 18.9
8-10 15.8% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 15.6
7-11 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 9.8
6-12 4.7% 4.7
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 13.6 97.5 0.0%