Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #203
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #179
Pace 67.0 #234
Improvement -2.8 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #131 C+ C C+ B C+
Defense #297 D C C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #186 1.13 #206 -0.8 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #264 0.82 #86 -1.0 #233
Three Pointers 45% #91 1.10 #66 +4.2 #52
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #112 +2.4 #111
Freethrows 0.35 #50 74% #140 0.26 #50
Second Chance 27.4% #272 1.13 #74 0.31 #193
Turnovers 15.9% #143
Total Offense +1.4 #131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #192 1.26 #302 -1.9 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #326 0.78 #225 +1.8 #55
Three Pointers 46% #48 1.09 #276 -4.3 #332
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #311 -4.4 #311
Freethrows 0.28 #101 76% #333 0.21 #148
Second Chance 32.7% #276 1.01 #124 0.33 #214
Turnovers 17.0% #146
Total Defense -4.1 #297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #120 1.4% #298
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.7% #113 7.1% #310
Possession Length 17.6 #203 17.7 #248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #135 0.20 #282
Improvement -3.3 #339 +0.6 #157

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 83.5% 95.0% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 30.5% 54.8% 23.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.1% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 23.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 32 - 64 - 10
Quad 413 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 263 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 71% -3  1 - 0 -2 +15 B C+ A+ -17 F D B+
 Fri, Nov 7 247 Green Bay W 83 - 76 68% +3  2 - 0 -1 +11 B C+ B -11 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 92 @DePaul W 66 - 53 14% +12  3 - 0 +22 +2 F B B +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 198 Vermont W 94 - 90 61% +0  4 - 0 -2 +13 A+ F C -15 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 353 VMI W 78 - 70 84% +1  5 - 0 -5 +1 C- D- D+ -6 B F F+
 Wed, Nov 26 321 Bucknell W 73 - 71 76% +10  6 - 0 -8 +9 C F B+ -16 F D- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 343 @Canisius W 71 - 53 72% +8  7 - 0 +9 +3 C- C C +8 B+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 152 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 49% -7  7 - 1 -10 -4 B C+ F -7 D- D A+
 Tue, Dec 9 265 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 49% -1  8 - 1 +1 +12 A D+ D -11 F D- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 256 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 48% +8  8 - 2 -5 +0 D C D- -6 A F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 258 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 48% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +19 B B A+ -3 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 319 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 66% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +9 B- B- D- -2 C- A D+
 Sat, Jan 3 297 Ball St. W 85 - 72 78% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +14 A A+ D -11 D+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 209 @Ohio L 80 - 91 39% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -11 +3 D+ C C -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 146 Kent St. L 81 - 87 48% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +5 C D A+ -13 F+ D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 89 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 13% +0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +6 +15 A+ D C- -8 F+ B- D+
 Tue, Jan 20 60 Akron L 63 - 82 20% -17  11 - 6 3 - 4 -13 -10 D- F+ C -3 D+ A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 23 174 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 56% -7  11 - 7 3 - 5 -5 -3 B- C D+ -3 C+ C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 129 @Bowling Green L 72 - 80 24%
 Sat, Jan 31 209 Ohio W 80 - 77 62%
 Tue, Feb 3 89 Miami (OH) L 78 - 84 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 @South Alabama L 70 - 74 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 297 @Ball St. W 72 - 70 58%
 Tue, Feb 17 319 Northern Illinois W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 174 @Massachusetts L 76 - 81 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 60 @Akron L 76 - 91 8%
 Sat, Feb 28 327 Central Michigan W 80 - 69 84%
 Tue, Mar 3 197 Eastern Michigan W 74 - 71 61%
 Fri, Mar 6 165 @Toledo L 77 - 82 31%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -3 +1 C+ C C+ -4 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.4 0.2 4.2 4th
5th 0.3 4.4 4.4 0.6 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.2 4.0 8.9 1.9 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 11.2 4.4 0.2 18.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 9.9 7.8 0.4 0.0 19.4 8th
9th 0.3 5.7 8.7 1.3 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 6.0 2.0 0.1 10.3 10th
11th 0.4 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.1 1.3 5.6 14.4 23.4 24.7 18.6 8.8 2.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 5.4% 5.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
10-8 8.8% 4.0% 4.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.4
9-9 18.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 18.2
8-10 24.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 24.4
7-11 23.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.4
6-12 14.4% 14.4
5-13 5.6% 5.6
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 14.1 98.8 0.0%