Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #185
Expected Predictive Rating +0.3 #155
Pace 66.9 #230
Improvement -1.1 #240

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #114 B- C C+ B C+
Defense #294 D C- C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #185 1.13 #209 -0.7 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #263 0.84 #66 -0.9 #225
Three Pointers 45% #94 1.13 #33 +4.8 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #83 +3.3 #83
Freethrows 0.35 #53 74% #133 0.26 #54
Second Chance 26.8% #283 1.15 #64 0.31 #202
Turnovers 15.6% #125
Total Offense +2.2 #114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #180 1.26 #305 -2.2 #254
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #327 0.76 #180 +2.0 #43
Three Pointers 46% #50 1.08 #273 -4.0 #328
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #312 -4.2 #312
Freethrows 0.27 #78 75% #319 0.20 #122
Second Chance 32.5% #270 1.03 #149 0.33 #225
Turnovers 16.9% #152
Total Defense -4.1 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #117 1.4% #303
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #90 6.8% #307
Possession Length 17.6 #199 17.7 #239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #118 0.21 #298
Improvement -1.6 #269 +0.5 #165

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.6% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 95.1% 98.1% 89.2%
.500 or above in Conference 56.4% 68.2% 33.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 2.6% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 413 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 259 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 74% -3  1 - 0 -2 +15 B C+ A+ -17 F D B+
 Fri, Nov 7 244 Green Bay W 83 - 76 71% +3  2 - 0 -1 +11 B C+ B -11 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 95 @DePaul W 66 - 53 16% +12  3 - 0 +22 +2 F B B +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 198 Vermont W 94 - 90 64% +0  4 - 0 -2 +13 A+ F C -15 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 353 VMI W 78 - 70 86% +1  5 - 0 -5 +1 C- D- D+ -6 B F F+
 Wed, Nov 26 323 Bucknell W 73 - 71 78% +10  6 - 0 -8 +8 C F B+ -16 F D- B-
 Sat, Nov 29 342 @Canisius W 71 - 53 75% +8  7 - 0 +9 +3 C- C C +8 B+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 141 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 50% -7  7 - 1 -10 -4 B B- F -6 D D A+
 Tue, Dec 9 258 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 52% -1  8 - 1 +2 +13 A+ D+ D -11 F D- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 262 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 53% +8  8 - 2 -6 -0 D C D- -6 A- F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 273 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 56% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +18 B- B A+ -3 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 310 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 65% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +8 +9 B- B F+ -0 C- A D+
 Sat, Jan 3 295 Ball St. W 85 - 72 80% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +15 A+ A+ D -11 D+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 214 @Ohio L 80 - 91 44% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -11 +4 C- C C+ -14 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 143 Kent St. L 81 - 87 50% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +6 C+ D A+ -14 F+ D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 91 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 16% +0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +6 +14 A+ D- C- -8 F B C-
 Tue, Jan 20 62 Akron L 63 - 82 23% -17  11 - 6 3 - 4 -13 -11 F+ F+ C -2 D+ A+ B+
 Fri, Jan 23 171 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 58% -7  11 - 7 3 - 5 -5 -3 B- C- D+ -2 B- C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 145 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 29% +5  12 - 7 4 - 5 +15 +23 A+ C- A+ -7 C F C
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Ohio W 80 - 76 66%
 Tue, Feb 3 91 Miami (OH) L 79 - 84 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 192 @South Alabama L 71 - 74 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 295 @Ball St. W 73 - 70 60%
 Tue, Feb 17 310 Northern Illinois W 80 - 70 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 171 @Massachusetts L 77 - 81 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 62 @Akron L 77 - 91 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 Central Michigan W 80 - 71 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 242 Eastern Michigan W 76 - 70 70%
 Fri, Mar 6 164 @Toledo L 78 - 82 34%
Totals 17 - 12 9 - 9 -2 +2 B- C C+ -4 D C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.6 5.2 1.0 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.8 8.2 9.0 1.7 0.0 19.7 5th
6th 0.1 5.9 12.1 3.0 0.0 21.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.5 11.1 4.6 0.1 18.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 7.1 5.0 0.3 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.2 3.4 0.4 6.0 9th
10th 0.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.4 13.7 23.3 26.6 19.1 8.5 2.1 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 13.8% 13.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 2.1% 9.3% 9.3% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-7 8.5% 3.7% 3.7% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2
10-8 19.1% 4.2% 4.2% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 18.3
9-9 26.6% 2.3% 2.3% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 26.0
8-10 23.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 23.0
7-11 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 5.4% 5.4
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 13.8 97.7 0.0%