Buffalo
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#70
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#109
Pace79.7#18
Improvement+0.2#152

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#29
First Shot+4.4#53
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#65
Layup/Dunks-0.9#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#109
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot+2.4#103
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#293
Layups/Dunks-1.0#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#53
Freethrows+2.0#73
Improvement+0.4#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 3.0% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.4% 41.9% 29.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.6% 8.8% 2.0%
Average Seed 11.8 10.9 12.3
.500 or above 97.5% 99.5% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 99.2% 97.7%
Conference Champion 43.3% 53.1% 39.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.6% 2.9% 1.1%
First Round31.7% 40.7% 28.5%
Second Round9.3% 14.5% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 4.5% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 23 - 4
Quad 37 - 310 - 8
Quad 412 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 16   @ Michigan L 76-88 15%     0 - 1 +6.0 +9.4 -2.9
  Nov 15, 2021 107   @ North Texas W 69-66 49%     1 - 1 +10.2 +6.8 +3.7
  Nov 20, 2021 264   Rider W 87-65 92%     2 - 1 +13.5 +1.8 +9.3
  Nov 23, 2021 158   Stephen F. Austin L 78-79 74%     2 - 2 -0.5 -0.7 +0.3
  Nov 24, 2021 244   Illinois St. W 106-90 85%     3 - 2 +11.8 +19.2 -8.9
  Dec 04, 2021 40   @ St. Bonaventure L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 08, 2021 126   @ Western Kentucky W 81-80 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 280   @ Canisius W 87-77 83%    
  Dec 21, 2021 69   UC Irvine W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 29, 2021 136   Miami (OH) W 83-75 78%    
  Jan 01, 2022 262   @ Eastern Michigan W 87-78 81%    
  Jan 04, 2022 310   @ Northern Illinois W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 08, 2022 226   Bowling Green W 90-77 88%    
  Jan 11, 2022 298   @ Western Michigan W 84-73 84%    
  Jan 14, 2022 213   @ Ball St. W 86-80 71%    
  Jan 18, 2022 302   Central Michigan W 93-75 95%    
  Jan 22, 2022 137   Kent St. W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 25, 2022 116   @ Toledo W 83-82 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 72   Ohio W 83-80 61%    
  Feb 01, 2022 165   @ Akron W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 302   @ Central Michigan W 90-78 86%    
  Feb 08, 2022 262   Eastern Michigan W 90-75 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 213   Ball St. W 89-77 86%    
  Feb 15, 2022 226   @ Bowling Green W 87-80 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 298   Western Michigan W 87-70 94%    
  Feb 22, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 310   Northern Illinois W 83-65 94%    
  Mar 01, 2022 116   Toledo W 86-79 72%    
  Mar 04, 2022 137   @ Kent St. W 78-76 56%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.1 11.6 11.8 7.5 2.3 43.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.5 7.3 7.4 3.9 1.0 0.1 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.4 1.9 0.4 8.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.2 8.7 11.5 13.8 15.5 15.5 12.8 7.6 2.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
19-1 98.5% 7.5    7.1 0.4
18-2 92.3% 11.8    9.9 1.9
17-3 74.7% 11.6    7.6 3.6 0.4
16-4 46.1% 7.1    3.4 3.0 0.7 0.0
15-5 19.0% 2.6    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.3% 43.3 31.1 10.2 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.3% 79.0% 59.7% 19.3% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 47.9%
19-1 7.6% 67.0% 53.5% 13.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.5 29.0%
18-2 12.8% 52.7% 46.6% 6.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.0 11.4%
17-3 15.5% 38.4% 36.8% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.7 0.2 9.5 2.5%
16-4 15.5% 32.1% 31.7% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 2.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 10.5 0.6%
15-5 13.8% 24.9% 24.9% 13.0 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 10.3
14-6 11.5% 18.6% 18.5% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 9.3 0.1%
13-7 8.7% 13.3% 13.3% 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.6
12-8 5.2% 12.9% 12.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.5
11-9 3.5% 9.2% 9.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.1
10-10 2.0% 6.1% 6.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
9-11 1.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.5% 0.5
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.4% 29.9% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.6 4.9 10.8 7.9 3.2 0.9 0.1 67.6 3.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.0 6.1 9.1 21.2 30.3 15.2 12.1 6.1