Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #196
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 #190
Pace 67.0 #229
Improvement -1.7 #258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 B- C- C+ B C+
Defense #304 D C C B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #180 1.14 #194 -0.4 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #255 0.84 #61 -0.6 #212
Three Pointers 45% #108 1.14 #28 +4.6 #43
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #76 +3.5 #76
Freethrows 0.35 #44 74% #132 0.26 #45
Second Chance 27.1% #279 1.08 #105 0.29 #220
Turnovers 16.3% #137
Total Offense +2.1 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #156 1.28 #325 -3.0 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #308 0.79 #244 +1.4 #85
Three Pointers 44% #85 1.08 #278 -3.0 #308
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #317 -4.7 #317
Freethrows 0.27 #61 75% #308 0.20 #91
Second Chance 33.1% #288 0.97 #105 0.32 #208
Turnovers 17.2% #171
Total Defense -4.4 #304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #123 1.3% #285
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.9% #78 7.8% #318
Possession Length 17.4 #187 17.7 #251
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #114 0.22 #315
Improvement -1.9 #288 +0.2 #179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.1% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 86.5% 97.0% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 24.7% 28.0% 22.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 2.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 32 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 243 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 70% -3  1 - 0 -2 +15 B B- A+ -17 F D B
 Fri, Nov 7 249 Green Bay W 83 - 76 71% +3  2 - 0 -1 +10 B C+ B -10 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 94 @DePaul W 66 - 53 15% +11  3 - 0 +22 +2 D- B+ B- +20 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 214 Vermont W 94 - 90 64% +0  4 - 0 -2 +14 A+ F C -16 F D+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 359 VMI W 78 - 70 87% +1  5 - 0 -7 +1 D+ D+ D+ -7 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 313 Bucknell W 73 - 71 74% +2  6 - 0 -7 +8 C+ F A -15 F D+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 348 @Canisius W 71 - 53 74% +8  7 - 0 +9 +2 D C B- +9 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 135 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 47% -7  7 - 1 -9 -3 B B- F -6 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 259 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 51% -1  8 - 1 +1 +13 A+ D+ D+ -12 F F+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 247 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 49% +8  8 - 2 -5 +0 D- C D+ -5 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 280 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 56% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +13 +17 B- B A+ -3 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 309 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 63% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +8 +9 B B D- -1 C- A- D
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Ball St. W 85 - 72 81% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +15 A A+ D+ -12 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 191 @Ohio L 80 - 91 37% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -10 +4 C- C B- -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 141 Kent St. L 81 - 87 47% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +7 C+ C- A+ -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 91 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 15% +0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +6 +15 A+ D C -8 F A D
 Tue, Jan 20 63 Akron L 63 - 82 22% -17  11 - 6 3 - 4 -13 -9 D- F+ B- -4 D+ A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 175 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 57% -7  11 - 7 3 - 5 -5 -4 B- C- C- -1 B- C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 147 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 27% +5  12 - 7 4 - 5 +15 +24 A+ D+ A+ -8 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 191 Ohio L 83 - 95 60% -8  12 - 8 4 - 6 -17 +5 A- C C- -22 F D+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 91 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 31% -4  12 - 9 4 - 7 +1 -1 B+ F D- +2 D A+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 201 @South Alabama L 70 - 73 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 305 @Ball St. W 73 - 70 62%
 Tue, Feb 17 309 Northern Illinois W 80 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 175 @Massachusetts L 78 - 82 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 63 @Akron L 75 - 89 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 Central Michigan W 80 - 72 77%
 Tue, Mar 3 230 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 70 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 163 @Toledo L 77 - 82 32%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -2 +2 B- C- C+ -4 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 1.2 2.7 0.6 4.5 4th
5th 0.5 5.1 2.4 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 6.3 8.4 0.7 15.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.1 14.8 3.2 0.0 21.1 7th
8th 2.9 16.2 8.7 0.2 28.1 8th
9th 0.3 7.0 6.5 0.2 14.0 9th
10th 1.1 4.0 0.3 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 0.7 2.6 11th
12th 0.3 0.4 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.4 3.6 14.7 26.2 30.5 18.1 5.9 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.7% 0.7
10-8 5.9% 3.7% 3.7% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7
9-9 18.1% 4.0% 4.0% 13.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 17.4
8-10 30.5% 2.4% 2.4% 14.6 0.3 0.5 29.7
7-11 26.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 26.1
6-12 14.7% 14.7
5-13 3.6% 3.6
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.2 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%