Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #203
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #180
Pace 67.1 #227
Improvement -2.6 #289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #111 B- C C+ B C+
Defense #316 D C- C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #179 1.13 #205 -0.5 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #255 0.85 #54 -0.6 #208
Three Pointers 44% #114 1.14 #27 +4.5 #45
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #75 +3.5 #75
Freethrows 0.36 #43 74% #142 0.26 #44
Second Chance 26.5% #293 1.14 #46 0.30 #196
Turnovers 16.0% #121
Total Offense +2.3 #111

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.28 #322 -2.8 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #314 0.76 #187 +1.8 #59
Three Pointers 45% #73 1.09 #289 -3.7 #324
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #320 -4.7 #320
Freethrows 0.27 #74 76% #333 0.21 #123
Second Chance 33.4% #296 0.99 #125 0.33 #231
Turnovers 16.9% #182
Total Defense -4.9 #316

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #121 1.3% #295
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #80 7.9% #319
Possession Length 17.4 #186 17.7 #252
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #116 0.21 #311
Improvement -1.3 #258 -1.3 #263

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 88.3% 96.8% 84.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.7% 55.9% 20.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.2% 2.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.5% 2.4% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 32 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 251 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 70% -3  1 - 0 -2 +16 B+ B- A+ -17 F D- B
 Fri, Nov 7 257 Green Bay W 83 - 76 71% +3  2 - 0 -1 +9 B C+ B -10 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 94 @DePaul W 66 - 53 14% +11  3 - 0 +22 +2 D- B+ B +20 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 212 Vermont W 94 - 90 63% +0  4 - 0 -2 +14 A+ F C -16 F D+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 356 VMI W 78 - 70 86% +1  5 - 0 -6 +1 C- D C- -7 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 315 Bucknell W 73 - 71 75% +2  6 - 0 -7 +7 C+ F A -15 F D+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 343 @Canisius W 71 - 53 72% +8  7 - 0 +9 +2 D C B- +9 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 142 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 47% -7  7 - 1 -10 -3 B B- F -7 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 262 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 50% -1  8 - 1 +1 +14 A+ D+ D+ -12 F F+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 248 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 47% +8  8 - 2 -5 +0 D- C C- -5 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 273 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 53% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +18 B- B A+ -3 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 308 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 62% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +8 +9 B B D- -1 C- A- D
 Sat, Jan 3 296 Ball St. W 85 - 72 79% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +15 A+ A+ D+ -12 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 197 @Ohio L 80 - 91 38% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -10 +3 C- C B- -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 146 Kent St. L 81 - 87 48% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +6 C D+ A+ -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 90 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 14% +0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +6 +14 A+ D- C -8 F A+ D
 Tue, Jan 20 61 Akron L 63 - 82 20% -17  11 - 6 3 - 4 -13 -10 D- F+ C+ -3 D+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 23 172 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 55% -7  11 - 7 3 - 5 -5 -3 B- C- C- -2 C+ C C
 Tue, Jan 27 151 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 28% +5  12 - 7 4 - 5 +14 +23 A+ C- A+ -8 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 197 Ohio L 83 - 95 61% -8  12 - 8 4 - 6 -17 +5 A- C C- -23 F D+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 90 Miami (OH) L 79 - 85 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 196 @South Alabama L 70 - 73 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 296 @Ball St. W 73 - 71 59%
 Tue, Feb 17 308 Northern Illinois W 80 - 71 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 172 @Massachusetts L 77 - 82 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 61 @Akron L 76 - 91 8%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 Central Michigan W 79 - 71 77%
 Tue, Mar 3 236 Eastern Michigan W 76 - 71 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 159 @Toledo L 78 - 83 30%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -3 +2 B- C C+ -5 D C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.4 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.8 6.7 3.5 0.2 11.2 5th
6th 0.3 6.1 9.0 0.9 16.3 6th
7th 0.0 4.1 14.5 3.6 0.1 22.3 7th
8th 1.5 12.9 7.9 0.3 22.7 8th
9th 0.1 5.1 5.9 0.3 11.5 9th
10th 0.8 4.3 0.7 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.6 1.0 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.3 13th
Total 0.3 3.3 12.1 24.0 29.6 20.4 8.1 2.0 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7 2.0% 7.0% 7.0% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
10-8 8.1% 2.8% 2.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9
9-9 20.4% 2.6% 2.6% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 19.9
8-10 29.6% 1.7% 1.7% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 29.1
7-11 24.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0
6-12 12.1% 12.1
5-13 3.3% 3.3
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.0 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%