Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #195
Expected Predictive Rating +4.4 #105
Pace 66.5 #260
Improvement -2.3 #311

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #125 C+ A+ C- C+ B+
Defense #306 D C C+ C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.09 #253 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #320 0.84 #86 -2.1 #276
Three Pointers 46% #92 1.09 #80 +4.2 #59
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #123 +2.0 #125
Freethrows 23.4 #5 74% #128 17.5 #7
Second Chance 27.4% #265 1.09 #127 0.30 #216
Turnovers 15.8% #123
Total Offense +1.7 #125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #188 1.25 #282 -1.8 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #351 0.84 #286 +2.1 #54
Three Pointers 48% #28 1.06 #239 -4.7 #330
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #303 -4.3 #305
Freethrows 15.9 #118 78% #344 12.3 #186
Second Chance 32.0% #240 0.94 #76 0.30 #144
Turnovers 16.2% #217
Total Defense -4.0 #306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #57 1.8% #320
Shot Type Make Effect 1.9% #150 6.7% #294
Possession Length 17.7 #222 17.6 #239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #151 0.21 #290
Improvement -1.5 #293 -0.8 #233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.7% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 93.0% 97.1% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 58.6% 68.9% 38.7%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.4% 3.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.4% 2.7% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 55 - 9
Quad 413 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 210 Southern Miss W 85-79 65%     -2.8   1 - 0 -0.2 +14.5 -14.3
  Fri, Nov 7 286 Green Bay W 83-76 76%     2.6   2 - 0 -2.7 +10.3 -12.4
  Tue, Nov 11 113 @DePaul W 66-53 20%     12.2   3 - 0 +19.4 +0.8 +19.1
  Tue, Nov 18 187 Vermont W 94-90 60%     0.4   4 - 0 -0.8 +12.2 -13.2
  Mon, Nov 24 332 VMI W 78-70 78%     1.3   5 - 0 -2.5 +1.9 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 26 309 Bucknell W 73-71 72%     10.1   6 - 0 -6.4 +8.7 -14.9
  Sat, Nov 29 346 @Canisius W 71-53 74%     8.0   7 - 0 +8.9 +2.7 +7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 117 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 41%     -6.8   7 - 1 -7.9 -1.0 -7.2
  Tue, Dec 9 270 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 52%     -0.9   8 - 1 +1.1 +12.6 -11.3
  Sun, Dec 14 271 @East Carolina L 70-73 53%     8.2   8 - 2 -6.0 -0.2 -5.9
  Sat, Dec 20 272 @Western Michigan W 88-71 53%     9.9   9 - 2 1 - 0 +13.9 +18.3 -3.2
  Wed, Dec 31 322 @Northern Illinois W 79-74 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 303 Ball St. W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 177 @Ohio L 75-79 34%    
  Tue, Jan 13 131 Kent St. L 81-82 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 100 @Miami (OH) L 75-86 16%    
  Tue, Jan 20 59 Akron L 80-88 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 170 Massachusetts W 78-76 55%    
  Tue, Jan 27 126 @Bowling Green L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 Ohio W 78-76 58%    
  Tue, Feb 3 100 Miami (OH) L 78-83 34%    
  Wed, Feb 11 303 @Ball St. W 72-69 60%    
  Tue, Feb 17 322 Northern Illinois W 82-71 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 170 @Massachusetts L 75-79 34%    
  Tue, Feb 24 59 @Akron L 77-91 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 333 Central Michigan W 80-69 84%    
  Tue, Mar 3 206 Eastern Michigan W 75-71 63%    
  Fri, Mar 6 172 @Toledo L 77-81 36%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.5 2.8 0.3 11.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 6.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 6.7 4.3 0.7 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.6 5.4 1.0 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.9 1.1 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 4.9 1.5 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 4.3 7.1 12.0 15.3 15.8 14.8 12.2 8.3 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 88.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 56.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.2% 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 16.0% 16.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
14-4 2.2% 9.2% 9.2% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
13-5 4.4% 5.9% 5.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.1
12-6 8.3% 6.6% 6.6% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.8
11-7 12.2% 3.0% 3.0% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 11.8
10-8 14.8% 2.5% 2.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.4
9-9 15.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 15.5
8-10 15.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 15.2
7-11 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 11.9
6-12 7.1% 7.1
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 1.8% 1.8
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 97.6 0.0%