Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #199
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #144
Pace 67.1 #236
Improvement -3.3 #326

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #117 B- C B- A B
Defense #312 D- C- C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.12 #228 +0.1 #167
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #297 0.80 #118 -1.8 #270
Three Pointers 45% #107 1.11 #57 +4.2 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.5 #108
Freethrows 21.6 #14 74% #143 16.0 #16
Second Chance 27.7% #266 1.16 #51 0.32 #161
Turnovers 15.5% #115
Total Offense +2.2 #117

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #181 1.26 #302 -2.2 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #334 0.83 #299 +1.6 #74
Three Pointers 46% #42 1.07 #254 -4.0 #329
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #317 -4.6 #317
Freethrows 16.0 #120 80% #363 12.8 #171
Second Chance 33.8% #295 1.01 #139 0.34 #238
Turnovers 16.7% #164
Total Defense -4.6 #312

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #73 1.6% #312
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.1% #133 7.3% #312
Possession Length 17.6 #209 17.7 #250
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #135 0.20 #272
Improvement -2.1 #307 -1.2 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 4.0% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 90.7% 98.1% 89.6%
.500 or above in Conference 53.7% 81.4% 49.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 2.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.0% 4.0% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 413 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 66% -3  1 - 0 -1 +16 A- B A+ -16 F D A-
 Fri, Nov 7 237 Green Bay W 83 - 76 68% +3  2 - 0 -0 +11 A- B- B+ -11 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 101 @DePaul W 66 - 53 16% +12  3 - 0 +21 +3 F B A- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 202 Vermont W 94 - 90 62% +0  4 - 0 -2 +13 A+ F C -14 F C B-
 Mon, Nov 24 338 VMI W 78 - 70 79% +1  5 - 0 -3 +3 C F C -6 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 312 Bucknell W 73 - 71 74% +10  6 - 0 -7 +10 C+ F A -16 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 29 345 @Canisius W 71 - 53 73% +8  7 - 0 +9 +2 C- C- C +8 A- C C
 Sat, Dec 6 132 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 46% -7  7 - 1 -9 -3 A- C+ F -7 F D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 284 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 56% -1  8 - 1 -0 +12 A+ D D -11 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 263 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 51% +8  8 - 2 -6 +0 D- C F -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 250 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 48% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +19 B B+ A+ -2 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 331 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 69% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +6 +8 B- B- F -1 C A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Ball St. W 85 - 72 80% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +14 A+ A+ D -11 D F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 179 @Ohio L 80 - 91 35% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -10 +4 D+ C C+ -12 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 149 Kent St. L 81 - 87 49% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +5 C D A+ -13 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 86 @Miami (OH) L 74 - 86 12%
 Tue, Jan 20 67 Akron L 80 - 88 23%
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Massachusetts W 80 - 79 55%
 Tue, Jan 27 133 @Bowling Green L 73 - 80 26%
 Sat, Jan 31 179 Ohio W 80 - 78 57%
 Tue, Feb 3 86 Miami (OH) L 77 - 83 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 183 @South Alabama L 70 - 74 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 305 @Ball St. W 74 - 71 61%
 Tue, Feb 17 331 Northern Illinois W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Massachusetts L 77 - 82 34%
 Tue, Feb 24 67 @Akron L 77 - 91 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 321 Central Michigan W 80 - 70 83%
 Tue, Mar 3 205 Eastern Michigan W 74 - 71 62%
 Fri, Mar 6 166 @Toledo L 78 - 83 33%
Totals 17 - 12 9 - 9 -2 +2 B- C B- -5 D- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 4.7 1.7 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 7.3 3.1 0.2 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 8.0 5.1 0.6 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 7.5 7.4 1.0 0.0 17.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.6 8.5 1.7 0.0 16.4 8th
9th 0.3 3.5 6.3 2.0 0.1 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 3.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.0 8.0 14.4 20.2 20.3 16.4 10.2 4.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 45.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 9.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 13.4% 13.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.7% 6.4% 6.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
11-7 10.2% 5.3% 5.3% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.6
10-8 16.4% 3.4% 3.4% 14.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 15.9
9-9 20.3% 1.9% 1.9% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 19.9
8-10 20.2% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.1
7-11 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 14.4
6-12 8.0% 8.0
5-13 3.0% 3.0
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 13.7 98.0 0.0%