Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #192
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 #118
Pace 67.2 #238
Improvement -2.5 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 B- C C+ A+ B
Defense #306 D- C- C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #126 1.11 #235 +0.1 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.83 #82 -1.9 #270
Three Pointers 46% #98 1.11 #63 +4.5 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.7 #106
Freethrows 22.1 #13 75% #116 16.5 #11
Second Chance 28.3% #248 1.16 #58 0.33 #155
Turnovers 16.1% #142
Total Offense +2.3 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.26 #290 -1.6 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #343 0.88 #327 +1.5 #82
Three Pointers 48% #32 1.05 #241 -4.4 #338
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #313 -4.5 #313
Freethrows 16.0 #121 80% #364 12.9 #164
Second Chance 33.8% #292 1.00 #119 0.34 #232
Turnovers 17.0% #156
Total Defense -4.2 #306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #65 1.6% #311
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #135 7.2% #307
Possession Length 17.8 #225 17.6 #230
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #147 0.21 #293
Improvement -1.3 #263 -1.2 #255

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 94.5% 98.3% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 68.0% 80.6% 54.1%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.6% 3.4% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 33 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 209 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 65% -3  1 - 0 +0 +16 A- B A+ -16 F D A-
 Fri, Nov 7 244 Green Bay W 83 - 76 71% +3  2 - 0 -1 +11 A- B- B -12 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 99 @DePaul W 66 - 53 17% +12  3 - 0 +21 +3 F B A- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 196 Vermont W 94 - 90 62% +0  4 - 0 -1 +13 A+ F C -14 F C B-
 Mon, Nov 24 338 VMI W 78 - 70 81% +1  5 - 0 -3 +3 C- D- C- -6 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 317 Bucknell W 73 - 71 76% +10  6 - 0 -7 +10 C+ F A -17 F F B
 Sat, Nov 29 336 @Canisius W 71 - 53 72% +8  7 - 0 +10 +2 C- C- D+ +9 A- C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 125 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 46% -7  7 - 1 -9 -3 A C F -6 D- C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 278 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 57% -1  8 - 1 +0 +12 A+ D D- -11 F D- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 262 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 53% +8  8 - 2 -6 -0 D- C D- -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 250 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 51% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +15 +19 B A- A+ -3 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 327 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 70% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +7 B- C+ F -0 C A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Ball St. W 85 - 72 83% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +1 +14 A+ A+ D -12 D F B
 Sat, Jan 10 164 @Ohio L 80 - 91 34% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -9 +5 C- C C+ -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 150 Kent St. W 83 - 82 52%
 Sat, Jan 17 94 @Miami (OH) L 75 - 86 15%
 Tue, Jan 20 63 Akron L 80 - 88 23%
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Massachusetts W 80 - 78 58%
 Tue, Jan 27 132 @Bowling Green L 74 - 80 28%
 Sat, Jan 31 164 Ohio W 80 - 78 56%
 Tue, Feb 3 94 Miami (OH) L 78 - 83 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 189 @South Alabama L 70 - 73 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 313 @Ball St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 327 Northern Illinois W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Massachusetts L 77 - 81 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 63 @Akron L 77 - 91 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 316 Central Michigan W 80 - 70 83%
 Tue, Mar 3 218 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 71 65%
 Fri, Mar 6 178 @Toledo L 77 - 81 38%
Totals 18 - 11 9 - 9 -2 +2 B- C C+ -4 D- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 6.7 3.0 0.2 13.4 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 8.1 4.2 0.4 15.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 8.3 5.8 0.7 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.3 6.3 0.8 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.0 5.4 1.3 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.9 10.0 15.2 19.2 18.4 14.4 9.3 4.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 82.2% 0.4    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 13.9% 13.9% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.6% 8.7% 8.7% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
13-5 4.5% 7.5% 7.5% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.2
12-6 9.3% 5.2% 5.2% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.8
11-7 14.4% 4.2% 4.2% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 13.8
10-8 18.4% 2.6% 2.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 17.9
9-9 19.2% 1.9% 1.9% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 18.8
8-10 15.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.1
7-11 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 4.9% 4.9
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.6 97.4 0.0%