Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.9 211
Results Rating -2.7 211
Consistency 0.15 146
Pace 66.3 238
Improvement -4.0 313

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 132 B- C- C+ B- C+
Defense D 300 D- C C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 174 C 58% 187 +0.0 181
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 231 C+ 39% 124 -1.2 249
Three Pointers 44% 107 B 37% 44 +4.0 57
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 113 B- +2.2 103
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 93
Second Chance D 26.1% 298 B- 1.10 86 C- 0.29 236
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 257
Other Turnovers B 6.1% 59
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 145
Freethrows B- 0.33 93 C+ 73% 161 B- 0.24 104
Total Offense C+ +1.4 132

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 44% 254 C- 11.7% 224
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 228 C+ 4.4% 139
Three Pointers D+ 79% 289 B 0.3% 52
Total C- 54% 214 C 5.4% 170


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 141 D 63% 311 +2.7 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 330 D- 43% 329 -1.1 110
Three Pointers 44% 81 D 37% 315 +3.8 331
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 301 D- +4.5 341
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 340
Second Chance D+ 32.6% 281 B- 0.97 86 C 0.32 208
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 66
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 283
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 119
Freethrows B- 0.28 108 D 75% 305 C+ 0.21 138
Total Defense D -4.3 300

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 320 C- 9.8% 217
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 250 F+ 1.0% 350
Three Pointers D- 90% 347 D+ 0.5% 259
Total D- 64% 337 D+ 4.3% 282

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 201 17.7 249
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 135 0.21 318
Consistency 0.11 100 0.13 261
Improvement -4.0 338 +0.0 187

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 211 211 210
Results Rating Rank 213 211 211
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 213 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 62% -3  28% 1 - 0 C +0 A +14 B+ B- A F -13 F D+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 219 Green Bay W 83 - 76 63% +3  79% 2 - 0 C +1 B+ +8 B+ C+ B D- -7 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 94 @DePaul W 66 - 53 14% +11  92% 3 - 0 A +22 C +1 D- B B A+ +21 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 231 Vermont W 94 - 90 66% +0  45% 4 - 0 C- -3 A- +11 A+ F C+ F -15 F C- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 359 VMI W 78 - 70 90% +1  45% 5 - 0 D -9 D+ -4 D+ D D D -5 B+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 330 Bucknell W 73 - 71 79% +2  53% 6 - 0 D -9 B- +5 C+ F A F -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 338 @Canisius W 71 - 53 74% +8  75% 7 - 0 B +9 C +0 D+ C- C+ A +10 A D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 131 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 43% -7  0% 7 - 1 D -9 D -6 B B F D+ -3 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 195 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 34% -1  36% 8 - 1 B- +5 A +13 A+ C- D D- -7 F D- B-
 Sun, Dec 14 235 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 44% +8  76% 8 - 2 C- -4 D+ -4 F+ C D C -1 A F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 277 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 53% +10  87% 9 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +15 C+ A- A+ C -0 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 342 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 74% +7  83% 10 - 2 2 - 0 C+ +4 B- +6 B- B+ F C -1 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 3 280 Ball St. W 85 - 72 75% +14  98% 11 - 2 3 - 0 C+ +3 A+ +15 A+ A+ D F -11 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 227 @Ohio L 80 - 91 42% -4  35% 11 - 3 3 - 1 D- -12 C- -1 D+ C C+ F -10 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 147 Kent St. L 81 - 87 48% -7  6% 11 - 4 3 - 2 D -8 C+ +3 C D+ A+ F -11 F D- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 96 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 14% +0  47% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +5 A +12 A+ F+ C- D -6 F A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 73 Akron L 63 - 82 21% -17  0% 11 - 6 3 - 4 D- -14 F -12 F+ D- C C- -2 D+ A B
 Fri, Jan 23 191 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 57% -7  17% 11 - 7 3 - 5 D+ -6 D- -8 B- C- D+ B- +2 B C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 168 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 29% +5  87% 12 - 7 4 - 5 B+ +14 A+ +21 A+ C- A D- -7 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 227 Ohio L 83 - 95 65% -8  5% 12 - 8 4 - 6 F -19 C +1 A- C- D- F -20 F D+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 96 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 30% -4  6% 12 - 9 4 - 7 C +0 D+ -4 A- F F B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 207 @South Alabama L 69 - 81 36% -18  2% 12 - 10 D -11 D -5 C- F D- D -6 F C B-
 Wed, Feb 11 280 @Ball St. W 63 - 53 54% +5  91% 13 - 10 5 - 7 B- +6 C +0 C C- C- A- +7 C+ C A
 Tue, Feb 17 342 Northern Illinois L 70 - 72 88% -0  45% 13 - 11 5 - 8 F+ -18 D -6 D- C- B- F -12 F C+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 191 @Massachusetts W 86 - 82 OT 34% -2  25% 14 - 11 6 - 8 B- +5 B +7 B- B- B- C- -2 F A C+
 Tue, Feb 24 73 @Akron L 85 - 99 10% -8  23% 14 - 12 6 - 9 C- -3 C+ +2 F+ C C+ D+ -3 F B+ A
 Sat, Feb 28 269 Central Michigan L 70 - 75 73% -5  26% 14 - 13 6 - 10 D- -14 D+ -4 D+ C- A F -11 F D+ A
 Tue, Mar 3 247 Eastern Michigan W 72 - 67 69% +7  86% 15 - 13 7 - 10 C- -3 C- -1 C C- B C- -2 B- C C-
 Fri, Mar 6 142 @Toledo L 78 - 98 26% -6  6% 15 - 14 7 - 11 F+ -16 B+ +9 A+ D+ C+ F -27 F F F
 Thu, Mar 12 73 Akron L 70 - 73 15% -7  13% 15 - 15 B- +5 D+ -3 B D- C A- +8 A C C-
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -3 C+ +1 B B- C+ D -4 B C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ B B- 39% 34% 44% C+ B- D B- C- C+ B- C+ B- D D D- D D- 40% 16% 44% D D- D+ B- C C+ B- D C+
1.11 58% 39% 37% +2 0 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 16% .33 73% .24 1.15 63% 43% 37% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.0 .32 18% .28 75% .25
Nov
3		 Southern Miss A D- A+ A+ B+ 36% 7% 58% B+ B+ A- D- B- A A+ C- A+ F D F D F 49% 13% 38% F F B- F D+ B+ D+ F F
1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43 1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37
Nov
7		 Green Bay B+ B- B- A- B 49% 13% 38% A- B+ D+ A C+ B A+ F A+ D- F F F F 38% 4% 58% F+ F A A+ A+ B- D- D- F+
1.29 63% 40% 40% +6 +2 1.18 28% 1.3 .38 11% .72 66% .47 1.18 71% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.31 15% 0.5 .08 17% .39 81% .32
Nov
11		 DePaul C F B+ C+ D- 36% 32% 32% D+ D- D+ A+ B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B 32% 17% 51% C B D A+ A+ A+ F A+ C+
0.98 31% 43% 36% -7 -2 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 18% .49 70% .34 0.78 38% 14% 43% -3 0 0.95 34% 0.3 .11 30% .42 50% .21
Nov
18		 Vermont A- A A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B+ A+ F+ F F C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 43% 8% 49% F F B+ F C- C+ F F F
1.29 70% 50% 43% +13 +1 1.29 19% 0.5 .10 12% .58 84% .48 1.23 64% 50% 48% +14 +2 1.33 19% 1.4 .26 16% .36 82% .30
Nov
24		 VMI D+ F A- A- F+ 45% 5% 50% A+ D+ F+ B- D D A+ C+ A+ D C- F A+ A- 30% 17% 53% B- B+ F F F F F+ C+ D-
1.17 50% 50% 40% +1 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51 1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24
Nov
26		 Bucknell B- D- A A C 35% 8% 56% A- C+ C- F F A B C- B- F F A F+ F 40% 9% 51% F+ F F A+ D+ D+ B- A+ A-
1.20 53% 50% 41% +5 +1 1.15 31% 0.6 .19 13% .36 74% .26 1.17 68% 25% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 0.8 .31 18% .24 58% .14
Nov
29		 Canisius C D- C+ C D+ 23% 10% 67% C D+ F A+ C- C+ C- A+ B- A B- F+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 36% D+ A B- F D C- C+ C C
1.10 55% 40% 34% 0 0 1.02 19% 1.7 .31 14% .31 82% .25 0.82 47% 45% 12% -15 0 0.72 23% 1.3 .29 19% .27 71% .19
Dec
6		 St. Bonaventure D A D C B 43% 13% 43% B+ B F+ A+ B F D- F F D+ F B- D D 36% 18% 47% D D F A D- A+ C F D
1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14 1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24
Dec
9		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A A- A+ A+ A+ 50% 21% 29% C+ A+ C+ F+ C- D A A+ A+ D- D+ F D+ F 30% 23% 47% C+ F D D- D- B- A+ F A
1.25 67% 60% 43% +13 +1 1.29 31% 0.9 .27 15% .32 89% .28 1.19 63% 67% 36% +9 -1 1.19 27% 1.1 .31 17% .14 100% .14
Dec
14		 East Carolina D+ F A+ C F 39% 16% 45% B F+ B F+ C D A+ B- A+ C A+ C+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% D- A D F+ F+ F F F+ F
1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29 1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37
Dec
20		 Western Michigan A+ A- F C C+ 34% 8% 58% B- C+ C A+ A- A+ A B+ A C C C C C- 35% 14% 51% F+ D+ C A+ A+ F A C- A-
1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29 1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15
Dec
31		 Northern Illinois B- C F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B- B- A B+ F A+ D+ A- C F F A+ C- 38% 4% 58% D- D+ C- A B C- B F D
1.19 60% 29% 45% +6 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29 0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26
Jan
3		 Ball St. A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 9% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A+ F A B+ F+ D 31% 16% 53% C D+ F D- F B F F F
1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33 1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36
Jan
10		 Ohio C- D- A+ D D+ 41% 19% 41% C D+ C+ D+ C C+ B- F C- F F F F F 43% 26% 32% C F F F F A+ D F F
1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22 1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31
Jan
13		 Kent St. C+ C- F A C+ 38% 22% 40% D+ C F A+ D+ A+ A- D+ B+ F F A+ F F 44% 16% 40% D F D+ D- D- D+ A- D B
1.15 57% 25% 41% +1 0 1.04 15% 1.7 .26 7% .41 70% .29 1.24 68% 13% 45% +7 +1 1.18 36% 1.2 .42 17% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Miami (OH) A C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% C- A+ D- F F+ C- A- A A D F A+ F F 48% 10% 43% F F A A+ A+ D+ D A+ B-
1.22 62% 53% 50% +15 -1 1.30 24% 0.8 .18 18% .34 83% .28 1.26 76% 17% 46% +14 +2 1.34 15% 0.8 .12 13% .36 62% .22
Jan
20		 Akron F C- B- F F 30% 19% 52% D+ F+ C F D- C D D+ D C- C A- F D 29% 12% 59% C D+ B A+ A B F B- F+
0.90 56% 40% 25% -7 0 0.87 32% 0.7 .23 19% .23 69% .16 1.17 60% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 19% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 Massachusetts D- A+ B- C B+ 23% 26% 51% F B- F A+ C- D+ F F F B- D A- B+ B- 36% 28% 36% B B D+ B C C+ B- B+ B
1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13 1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19
Jan
27		 Bowling Green A+ D A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% B A+ D- B+ C- A B+ B+ A D- D+ A+ C- C 55% 12% 33% D- C- D F F D+ B+ A+ A
1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29 1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16
Jan
31		 Ohio C B A+ A A 48% 26% 26% C- A- F A+ C- D- A+ D A+ F F F B+ F 46% 28% 26% C F F B D+ F F F+ F
1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32 1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Miami (OH) D+ A- C- A A 35% 17% 48% C+ A- B+ F F F A- B- A- B F F A- F+ 43% 20% 37% C F+ A- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.04 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 36% 0.2 .06 22% .34 78% .26 1.07 78% 64% 30% +12 0 1.26 18% 0.4 .07 19% .11 50% .05
Feb
7		 South Alabama D C D- B- C+ 9% 18% 74% F C- D- F F D- F F F D B+ F F F 49% 10% 41% F F A- F C B- F B- D-
0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07 1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25
Feb
11		 Ball St. C C+ C+ D C- 43% 12% 45% A- C C C- C- C- A- A+ A+ A- A- A+ C+ B 45% 11% 43% F C+ F+ A- C A A F B+
1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31 0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15
Feb
17		 Northern Illinois D B- F D F+ 45% 16% 39% C D- F A+ C- B- C- D+ D+ F C- A+ F F 31% 9% 60% C F C B- C+ B- B F C
1.07 64% 13% 32% -3 +1 0.98 16% 2.0 .31 15% .31 71% .22 1.10 57% 25% 48% +11 +1 1.27 29% 0.8 .21 23% .30 73% .22
Feb
21		 Massachusetts B C- F A+ B 35% 19% 46% C- B- F+ A+ B- B- A+ C A+ C- F F F F 35% 24% 41% B- F D- A+ A C+ D- A C
1.19 59% 22% 45% +5 0 1.13 20% 1.7 .33 15% .49 73% .36 1.13 71% 58% 40% +13 -1 1.27 37% 0.7 .27 19% .38 59% .22
Feb
24		 Akron C+ C- F F F 45% 9% 45% A- F+ B+ F+ C C+ A+ A A+ D+ D- C F F 53% 9% 38% F F B B+ B+ A F F F
1.06 56% 0% 28% -8 +2 0.89 38% 0.8 .31 17% .50 79% .39 1.23 68% 40% 45% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 21% .46 90% .41
Feb
28		 Central Michigan D+ B- F D+ D 48% 10% 42% B+ D+ F A+ C- A F D F F C F F F 37% 23% 40% D+ F F A+ D+ A F F F
1.10 64% 0% 32% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .39 13% .16 67% .11 1.18 56% 50% 47% +10 0 1.21 45% 0.8 .35 24% .35 82% .29
Mar
3		 Eastern Michigan C- C+ C+ C- C+ 32% 21% 47% D+ C F A+ C- B A- B+ A C- B+ F A+ B+ 58% 22% 20% F B- A- F C C- D+ F D-
1.08 60% 40% 32% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.8 .29 14% .38 77% .30 1.01 52% 45% 20% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.3 .27 17% .29 81% .23
Mar
6		 Toledo B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% B+ A+ B- F D+ C+ F B+ F+ F F F F F 41% 19% 41% D- F D F F F C A B-
1.22 63% 60% 50% +14 +2 1.35 37% 0.8 .30 17% .15 75% .11 1.53 68% 70% 45% +17 0 1.37 33% 1.4 .47 9% .26 67% .17
Mar
12		 Akron D+ B F A- B 40% 11% 49% B B F A D- C A F C- A- C F A+ A 35% 24% 41% B+ A A- F C C- D- A+ C
1.01 63% 20% 39% +4 +1 1.13 19% 1.2 .22 19% .35 50% .18 1.05 61% 50% 24% -2 -1 0.96 27% 1.5 .41 16% .31 61% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 100.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%