Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.4 #182
Expected Predictive Rating +5.3 #95
Pace 66.3 #263
Improvement -1.6 #281

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #112 B- A+ C C+ B+
Defense #296 D C C C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.11 #236 +0.3 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #319 0.80 #116 -2.3 #291
Three Pointers 46% #86 1.12 #59 +4.8 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #103 +2.9 #103
Freethrows 22.2 #11 76% #89 16.8 #9
Second Chance 27.9% #263 1.15 #73 0.32 #165
Turnovers 16.2% #150
Total Offense +2.4 #112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #208 1.24 #277 -1.1 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #353 0.85 #299 +2.0 #52
Three Pointers 49% #23 1.05 #229 -4.8 #332
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #294 -3.9 #296
Freethrows 15.8 #111 80% #360 12.6 #175
Second Chance 32.4% #253 0.96 #84 0.31 #161
Turnovers 16.3% #203
Total Defense -3.8 #296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #55 1.7% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #133 5.8% #283
Possession Length 18.0 #250 17.6 #237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #154 0.21 #292
Improvement -1.0 #254 -0.7 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.3% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 98.6% 99.8% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 89.3% 67.9%
Conference Champion 3.5% 6.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.3% 4.3% 2.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 37.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 206 Southern Miss W 85-79 66%     -2.8   1 - 0 +0.3 +15.0 -14.3
  Fri, Nov 7 247 Green Bay W 83-76 74%     2.6   2 - 0 -1.1 +11.2 -11.7
  Tue, Nov 11 104 @DePaul W 66-53 19%     12.2   3 - 0 +20.9 +2.4 +19.0
  Tue, Nov 18 183 Vermont W 94-90 62%     0.4   4 - 0 -0.5 +12.3 -13.0
  Mon, Nov 24 334 VMI W 78-70 81%     1.3   5 - 0 -2.8 +2.8 -5.2
  Wed, Nov 26 312 Bucknell W 73-71 76%     10.1   6 - 0 -6.7 +9.7 -16.1
  Sat, Nov 29 337 @Canisius W 71-53 75%     8.0   7 - 0 +9.7 +1.5 +9.7
  Sat, Dec 6 116 St. Bonaventure L 69-77 43%     -6.8   7 - 1 -7.5 -1.4 -6.5
  Tue, Dec 9 268 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-79 56%     -0.9   8 - 1 +1.0 +12.6 -11.3
  Sun, Dec 14 273 @East Carolina L 70-73 57%     8.2   8 - 2 -6.2 -0.4 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 20 271 @Western Michigan W 88-71 57%     9.9   9 - 2 1 - 0 +13.9 +18.4 -3.3
  Wed, Dec 31 328 @Northern Illinois W 81-67 71%     7.1   10 - 2 2 - 0 +6.8 +7.2 -0.1
  Sat, Jan 3 318 Ball St. W 85-72 85%     14.3   11 - 2 3 - 0 +0.7 +13.7 -11.9
  Sat, Jan 10 173 @Ohio L 76-79 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 139 Kent St. W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 100 @Miami (OH) L 74-84 19%    
  Tue, Jan 20 68 Akron L 80-87 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 169 Massachusetts W 79-77 59%    
  Tue, Jan 27 127 @Bowling Green L 73-79 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 173 Ohio W 79-76 59%    
  Tue, Feb 3 100 Miami (OH) L 77-81 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 318 @Ball St. W 74-69 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 328 Northern Illinois W 82-70 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 169 @Massachusetts L 76-80 37%    
  Tue, Feb 24 68 @Akron L 77-90 12%    
  Sat, Feb 28 326 Central Michigan W 80-68 86%    
  Tue, Mar 3 196 Eastern Michigan W 74-70 64%    
  Fri, Mar 6 172 @Toledo L 77-80 37%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.3 4.6 0.6 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.5 6.4 1.0 0.0 15.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 5.5 7.7 1.7 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.8 2.2 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.4 2.3 0.2 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 1.8 0.2 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.1 7.2 12.3 16.2 18.2 16.5 12.4 7.5 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.8% 0.3    0.3 0.1
15-3 78.4% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.1
14-4 36.3% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 8.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 14.3% 14.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.4% 11.9% 11.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
14-4 3.5% 11.4% 11.4% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.1
13-5 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.9
12-6 12.4% 4.5% 4.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.8
11-7 16.5% 3.6% 3.6% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 15.9
10-8 18.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 17.7
9-9 16.2% 2.0% 2.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 15.9
8-10 12.3% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.2
7-11 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.2
6-12 3.1% 3.1
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 96.7 0.0%