Buffalo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #198
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #188
Pace 67.0 #232
Improvement -1.6 #258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 B- C- C+ B C+
Defense #306 D C C B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #184 1.14 #194 -0.4 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.84 #60 -0.6 #210
Three Pointers 45% #111 1.14 #27 +4.6 #44
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #74 +3.5 #74
Freethrows 0.35 #47 74% #132 0.26 #45
Second Chance 27.1% #278 1.08 #106 0.29 #224
Turnovers 16.3% #136
Total Offense +2.0 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #156 1.28 #325 -3.0 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #308 0.79 #242 +1.4 #81
Three Pointers 44% #85 1.08 #279 -3.1 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #319 -4.8 #320
Freethrows 0.27 #60 75% #314 0.20 #94
Second Chance 33.2% #289 0.98 #106 0.32 #208
Turnovers 17.2% #169
Total Defense -4.4 #306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #124 1.3% #286
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.9% #78 8.0% #320
Possession Length 17.4 #188 17.7 #255
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #117 0.22 #318
Improvement -1.9 #291 +0.2 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 86.8% 96.8% 80.4%
.500 or above in Conference 24.2% 27.3% 22.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 32 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 252 Southern Miss W 85 - 79 71% -3  1 - 0 -2 +16 B+ B- A+ -17 F D- B
 Fri, Nov 7 256 Green Bay W 83 - 76 72% +3  2 - 0 -1 +9 B C+ B -10 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 95 @DePaul W 66 - 53 15% +11  3 - 0 +22 +2 D- B+ B- +20 B A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 212 Vermont W 94 - 90 64% +0  4 - 0 -2 +14 A+ F C -16 F D+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 356 VMI W 78 - 70 87% +1  5 - 0 -6 +1 C- D C- -7 B F F
 Wed, Nov 26 315 Bucknell W 73 - 71 75% +2  6 - 0 -7 +7 C+ F A -15 F D+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 348 @Canisius W 71 - 53 74% +8  7 - 0 +9 +2 D C B- +9 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 137 St. Bonaventure L 69 - 77 47% -7  7 - 1 -9 -3 B B- F -6 D D- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 262 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83 - 79 51% -1  8 - 1 +1 +13 A+ D+ D+ -12 F F+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 249 @East Carolina L 70 - 73 48% +8  8 - 2 -5 +0 D- C C- -5 A F F
 Sat, Dec 20 279 @Western Michigan W 88 - 71 55% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +13 +17 B- B A+ -3 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 308 @Northern Illinois W 81 - 67 63% +7  10 - 2 2 - 0 +8 +9 B B D- -1 C- A- D
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Ball St. W 85 - 72 80% +14  11 - 2 3 - 0 +2 +15 A A+ D+ -12 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 190 @Ohio L 80 - 91 37% -4  11 - 3 3 - 1 -10 +3 C- C B- -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 143 Kent St. L 81 - 87 48% -7  11 - 4 3 - 2 -8 +7 C C- A+ -14 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 92 @Miami (OH) L 102 - 105 OT 15% +0  11 - 5 3 - 3 +6 +15 A+ D C -8 F A D
 Tue, Jan 20 64 Akron L 63 - 82 22% -17  11 - 6 3 - 4 -13 -9 D- F+ B- -4 D+ A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 174 Massachusetts L 67 - 68 57% -7  11 - 7 3 - 5 -5 -4 B- C- C- -1 B- C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 148 @Bowling Green W 89 - 78 27% +5  12 - 7 4 - 5 +15 +24 A+ D+ A+ -8 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 190 Ohio L 83 - 95 60% -8  12 - 8 4 - 6 -17 +5 A- C C- -22 F D+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 92 Miami (OH) L 71 - 73 31% -4  12 - 9 4 - 7 +1 -1 B+ F D- +2 D A+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 199 @South Alabama L 70 - 73 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 305 @Ball St. W 73 - 70 61%
 Tue, Feb 17 308 Northern Illinois W 80 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 174 @Massachusetts L 78 - 82 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 64 @Akron L 75 - 89 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 Central Michigan W 80 - 72 77%
 Tue, Mar 3 227 Eastern Michigan W 75 - 71 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 162 @Toledo L 77 - 82 32%
Totals 16 - 13 8 - 10 -2 +2 B- C- C+ -4 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.3 3.4 4th
5th 0.3 5.7 2.5 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 5.4 8.3 0.4 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.6 15.5 3.6 0.0 22.7 7th
8th 2.0 17.1 9.0 0.2 28.4 8th
9th 0.2 6.4 6.1 0.2 12.9 9th
10th 1.1 4.2 0.5 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 2.1 0.7 2.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 13th
Total 0.4 4.2 13.4 27.5 30.4 18.6 5.3 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.4% 7.5% 7.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1
9-9 18.6% 2.8% 2.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 18.0
8-10 30.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 30.0
7-11 27.5% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 27.4
6-12 13.4% 13.4
5-13 4.2% 4.2
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 13.9 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%