Buffalo
Mid-American
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#183
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#199
Pace80.1#4
Improvement+0.5#126

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#182
First Shot-0.9#212
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#126
Layup/Dunks+2.2#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#309
Freethrows-1.0#256
Improvement+0.3#122

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#187
First Shot-0.3#188
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#176
Layups/Dunks+0.0#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#77
Freethrows-1.4#285
Improvement+0.2#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.5% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 12.3% 18.0% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.6% 73.4% 37.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four2.2% 2.1% 2.4%
First Round3.3% 3.8% 2.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 61.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 34 - 45 - 12
Quad 48 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 118   Colgate W 88-87 48%     1 - 0 +1.0 -3.6 +4.4
  Nov 12, 2022 96   James Madison L 62-97 39%     1 - 1 -32.8 -21.4 -4.1
  Nov 15, 2022 6   @ Connecticut L 64-84 4%     1 - 2 +0.0 -5.4 +7.3
  Nov 18, 2022 84   Drake L 72-80 26%     1 - 3 -1.9 +2.2 -4.0
  Nov 19, 2022 269   Howard L 59-63 69%     1 - 4 -9.6 -15.4 +5.7
  Nov 21, 2022 122   George Mason W 82-74 38%     2 - 4 +10.7 +10.6 +0.0
  Nov 27, 2022 281   Canisius W 86-66 79%     3 - 4 +10.9 +0.6 +8.3
  Dec 03, 2022 147   St. Bonaventure W 83-66 54%     4 - 4 +15.4 +12.9 +2.9
  Dec 10, 2022 77   Tulane L 63-88 24%     4 - 5 -18.1 -11.1 -5.8
  Dec 18, 2022 23   @ West Virginia L 78-96 7%     4 - 6 -1.7 +4.7 -4.7
  Dec 30, 2022 39   @ Michigan St. L 68-89 9%     4 - 7 -6.8 -1.7 -3.8
  Jan 03, 2023 153   Ohio W 75-72 56%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +0.9 -7.1 +7.8
  Jan 07, 2023 271   Northern Illinois W 80-62 77%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +9.6 +6.5 +3.8
  Jan 10, 2023 297   @ Miami (OH) L 80-91 65%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -15.6 -9.2 -4.9
  Jan 14, 2023 299   @ Central Michigan L 78-87 OT 66%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -13.9 -8.0 -4.4
  Jan 17, 2023 243   Bowling Green W 100-71 73%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +22.0 +13.1 +6.4
  Jan 20, 2023 104   Toledo L 77-86 42%     7 - 10 3 - 3 -7.6 -3.0 -4.4
  Jan 24, 2023 155   @ Ball St. W 91-65 36%     8 - 10 4 - 3 +29.3 +15.4 +13.0
  Jan 27, 2023 73   @ Kent St. L 68-74 16%     8 - 11 4 - 4 +3.9 -3.2 +7.6
  Jan 31, 2023 108   Akron L 64-81 44%     8 - 12 4 - 5 -16.0 -5.5 -11.1
  Feb 04, 2023 285   @ Western Michigan W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 07, 2023 302   Eastern Michigan W 86-76 83%    
  Feb 11, 2023 73   Kent St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 14, 2023 153   @ Ohio L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 18, 2023 108   @ Akron L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 21, 2023 299   Central Michigan W 79-69 83%    
  Feb 25, 2023 104   @ Toledo L 82-89 24%    
  Feb 28, 2023 271   @ Northern Illinois W 77-75 58%    
  Mar 03, 2023 297   Miami (OH) W 84-75 82%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.8 1.0 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 10.1 13.0 3.7 0.1 28.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 9.1 13.3 3.2 0.1 26.4 6th
7th 0.2 4.8 10.2 2.8 0.1 18.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 5.9 2.3 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.9 12.8 22.9 27.0 20.3 9.6 2.4 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 11.5% 11.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 2.4% 10.4% 10.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-7 9.6% 6.3% 6.3% 15.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 9.0
10-8 20.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 19.2
9-9 27.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1 25.9
8-10 22.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.6 22.2
7-11 12.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 12.5
6-12 3.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.8
5-13 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 11.5% 13.4 1.5 3.8 6.2
Lose Out 0.1%