Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.8 110
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 111
Pace 74.1 44
Improvement +2.8 83

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 122 B- C- C- B B+
Defense C+ 110 C+ B- C+ D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 80 B- 62% 88 +3.8 53
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 335 C- 37% 221 -4.0 345
Three Pointers 47% 56 C 34% 179 +3.2 77
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 19 C+ +1.4 122
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 87
Second Chance C 29.7% 200 C- 1.01 203 C- 0.30 202
Turnovers C- 17.8% 244
Freethrows B+ 0.35 38 C 72% 198 B 0.26 57
Total Offense C+ +1.7 122

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 162 C 11.0% 183
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 145 F 10.2% 355
Three Pointers C+ 85% 168 D- 1.7% 334
Total B- 60% 88 D+ 6.6% 283

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 197 C 58% 172 -0.4 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 66 C+ 37% 115 +1.0 273
Three Pointers 38% 275 C 34% 168 -1.8 106
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 94 C+ -0.7 152
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 136
Second Chance B- 28.2% 92 C+ 0.99 121 B- 0.28 85
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 112
Freethrows D+ 0.34 295 C 72% 155 D+ 0.24 277
Total Defense C+ +2.0 110

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 146 C 10.5% 191
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 254 D+ 3.5% 264
Three Pointers C 84% 171 C- 0.7% 200
Total C+ 54% 145 C- 5.1% 209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 49 17.4 201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 51 0.21 315
Improvement +0.2 #176 +2.6 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 132 111 93
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 95% 100% 92%
.500 or above in Conference 94% 100% 92%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 29.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 23 - 33 - 8
Quad 35 - 49 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 337 Niagara W 83 - 63 95% +17  100% 1 - 0 B- +5 C -0 A+ C- F B+ +5 B+ B A-
 Fri, Nov 7 290 Sacred Heart W 92 - 80 90% +7  91% 2 - 0 C +2 B- +4 F B+ A C- -3 B C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 Queens W 87 - 81 OT 81% +9  93% 3 - 0 C +0 F -13 D F F+ A+ +12 B+ A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 31 @Villanova L 77 - 87 10% -6  28% 3 - 1 B- +8 A- +10 A+ D F+ C- -3 A+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 19 317 Loyola Maryland W 92 - 78 93% +12  99% 4 - 1 C +1 B- +4 B A F D+ -3 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 289 Northeastern L 86 - 93 85% -3  2% 4 - 2 D- -14 F -10 C+ F F D+ -3 F A- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 134 William & Mary L 79 - 83 69% -8  8% 4 - 3 D+ -5 D -5 D A+ F C+ +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 216 Stony Brook W 84 - 75 82% +8  94% 5 - 3 C+ +3 B+ +7 A+ F+ C D+ -5 B- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 65 @Boise St. L 64 - 86 23% -12  0% 5 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F+ C+ C C- -3 C D+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 79 @Nevada L 75 - 78 27% -5  21% 5 - 5 B- +7 B +7 C- B+ D C+ +0 A- D- D+
 Mon, Dec 22 343 Canisius W 103 - 59 95% +22  97% 6 - 5 A+ +29 A+ +19 A+ C+ B- A- +8 C- C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 112 @Davidson W 89 - 83 2OT 40% -3  12% 7 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +8 C B- B+ B +4 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 48 Virginia Commonwealth L 80 - 93 33% -7  7% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C- -5 B +6 A+ F+ C- F -10 C- F B-
 Wed, Jan 7 130 @Saint Joseph's L 90 - 97 OT 46% +0  38% 7 - 7 1 - 2 C- -2 B+ +9 A B- D F -10 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 13 88 Dayton L 65 - 71 52% -5  8% 7 - 8 1 - 3 C- -3 C- -2 C- F A- C- -2 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 158 @Fordham W 74 - 63 53% +6  97% 8 - 8 2 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +2 B D+ D A+ +11 A B C+
 Tue, Jan 20 23 Saint Louis L 77 - 81 18% -5  11% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B +9 C+ +2 D A+ D A- +8 A D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 277 @Loyola Chicago W 71 - 59 76% +4  79% 9 - 9 3 - 4 B +8 D+ -4 C+ F+ D+ A+ +12 A B D
 Wed, Jan 28 143 St. Bonaventure L 79 - 87 71% +2  64% 9 - 10 3 - 5 D -10 C +1 B+ F B+ F -11 F A F
 Sun, Feb 1 113 Rhode Island W 76 - 61 63% +8  93% 10 - 10 4 - 5 A- +15 B+ +8 A- B- C A- +8 B B+ C+
 Wed, Feb 4 105 @George Mason W 71 - 65 36% +0  49% 11 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +13 B- +5 D+ A+ B A +9 D+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 80 George Washington W 88 - 86 49% -0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 5 B- +6 A +14 B+ C- A+ F+ -8 D D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 143 @St. Bonaventure W 78 - 73 49% +7  89% 13 - 10 7 - 5 B +9 B- +4 C F+ A+ B+ +5 B+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 18 212 La Salle W 62 - 61 82% +5  73% 14 - 10 8 - 5 D+ -5 F -14 C F F A +9 B- B A+
 Sat, Feb 21 88 @Dayton L 73 - 79 30%
 Wed, Feb 25 112 Davidson W 74 - 71 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 23 @Saint Louis L 74 - 90 7%
 Wed, Mar 4 113 @Rhode Island L 72 - 75 40%
 Sat, Mar 7 129 Richmond W 80 - 75 67%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 +4 C+ +2 A+ C+ B+ C+ +2 C C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C- C C+ 42% 23% 47% B+ B- C C- C- C- B+ C B C+ C C+ C C+ 38% 24% 38% B- C+ B- C+ B- C+ D+ C D+
1.11 62% 37% 34% +1 +2 1.08 30% 1.0 .30 18% .35 72% .26 1.06 58% 37% 34% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 18% .34 72% .25
Nov
3		 Niagara C A+ F A A+ 39% 12% 49% B A+ D- A C- F D- C D- B+ D+ D+ A+ B+ 47% 23% 30% B- B+ B- A- B A- F F+ F
1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19 0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38
Nov
7		 Sacred Heart B- B+ A+ F F 42% 5% 53% B+ F B B- B+ A A+ D- A+ C- F A+ A B+ 28% 14% 58% C- B F A+ C+ F+ F A+ F
1.24 70% 67% 17% -7 +2 0.93 38% 1.2 .44 9% .58 67% .39 1.08 75% 0% 28% -6 0 0.91 35% 0.7 .26 15% .73 67% .49
Nov
11		 Queens F A B F D- 52% 12% 37% B+ D F C- F F+ A F C- A+ A- D+ C+ B+ 32% 21% 47% A- B+ C A+ A+ B F C+ F+
1.01 71% 43% 18% -1 +2 1.03 22% 1.0 .22 19% .43 57% .24 0.94 50% 42% 33% -2 -1 0.96 30% 0.4 .13 19% .39 74% .29
Nov
15		 Villanova A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% A A+ A- F D F+ A+ D A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ 45% 17% 38% D+ A+ F C+ F A- F D F
1.11 47% 67% 52% +12 +1 1.28 38% 0.6 .22 24% .38 65% .25 1.25 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 55% 1.0 .55 19% .58 76% .44
Nov
19		 Loyola Maryland B- A+ F C+ B- 41% 12% 47% B+ B B+ A A F A+ B- A+ D+ D- A B- D 49% 8% 43% F D- A F C+ D+ F+ A D+
1.23 80% 17% 35% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.4 .55 23% .45 77% .35 1.04 65% 25% 30% 0 +2 1.08 18% 1.3 .24 16% .34 62% .21
Nov
22		 Northeastern F C- A- A C- 71% 7% 22% A+ C+ F C F F B D- C+ D+ F F A+ F 53% 16% 31% D- F D+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26 1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38
Dec
2		 William & Mary D C A+ F F+ 40% 4% 56% A- D A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C+ D+ A+ F F 37% 8% 55% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ A F B+
1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30 1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20
Dec
6		 Stony Brook B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% B+ A+ B+ F F+ C A+ C A+ D+ A+ F B B 36% 13% 52% D+ B- D C D+ F B- F C
1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33 1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18
Dec
10		 Boise St. D- A- F F F 38% 16% 45% B+ F+ D A+ C+ C B- F C C- A+ A+ F D+ 35% 31% 35% A+ C A F D+ F+ B F C-
0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18 1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29
Dec
13		 Nevada B D A D D 42% 4% 54% A C- A D+ B+ D B A+ A+ C+ A+ D D+ B+ 43% 40% 17% A- A- C+ F D- D+ F C+ F
1.11 48% 50% 30% -7 +2 0.92 38% 1.1 .43 19% .37 90% .33 1.16 40% 42% 38% -5 -2 0.87 33% 1.3 .44 12% .54 75% .40
Dec
22		 Canisius A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ D- A+ C+ B- D B+ C- A- C+ C- D+ F+ 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A F C A+ F+ A+ C
1.41 76% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.47 25% 1.4 .36 14% .27 76% .21 0.81 50% 38% 36% -1 -5 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 29% .35 56% .19
Dec
30		 Davidson B+ F F A+ C- 31% 17% 52% B- C C+ B- B- B+ B- A+ A B B- A+ A A+ 41% 15% 44% D- A A+ C- A F A- F B-
1.14 44% 10% 43% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.1 .35 15% .32 81% .26 1.06 56% 30% 28% -6 +1 0.91 20% 1.1 .22 8% .21 80% .17
Jan
3		 Virginia Commonwealth B A+ A+ C- A+ 50% 4% 46% A+ A+ F+ D- F+ C- A+ F A F F+ A- C C- 42% 13% 44% C C- C F F B- F D F
1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27 1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40
Jan
7		 Saint Joseph's B+ B A+ C- A 35% 18% 47% B A B+ C- B- D C A+ B+ F C- F D F 41% 14% 45% C- F D A- C+ F+ F C- F
1.12 62% 64% 32% +5 0 1.12 37% 1.0 .37 17% .23 87% .20 1.21 61% 75% 36% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.8 .31 14% .42 76% .32
Jan
13		 Dayton C- C B- D- D+ 39% 11% 50% A C- D F F A- A+ B- A+ C- B A+ F C- 45% 15% 40% C C- A A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31 1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42
Jan
17		 Fordham C+ C F A+ B 33% 18% 49% B B D- B D+ D A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 46% C+ A D A B C+ D+ A+ C+
1.04 56% 22% 42% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.2 .23 18% .47 67% .31 0.89 50% 55% 16% -12 0 0.78 39% 0.7 .29 18% .26 60% .16
Jan
20		 Saint Louis C+ C- F F D- 39% 14% 46% B+ D A+ A A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- A D+ F A 55% 14% 31% B- A A- F D+ A- F A D-
1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37 1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26
Jan
24		 Loyola Chicago D+ C F B+ C 43% 15% 43% B+ C+ F B+ F+ D+ A F B A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A A+ F B D D+ F+ D
1.05 55% 29% 40% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 15% .38 68% .26 0.87 63% 25% 21% -11 0 0.81 18% 1.3 .24 16% .33 74% .25
Jan
28		 St. Bonaventure C F A+ A+ B+ 40% 12% 48% B B+ C F F B+ A F C- F B F F F 43% 29% 29% C+ F A+ F A F F D- F
1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20 1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34
Feb
1		 Rhode Island B+ C- F A+ A- 41% 2% 56% A A- B C- B- C A A+ A+ A- C- A+ D B- 29% 22% 49% A B A- C+ B+ C+ C+ A+ A+
1.17 53% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 36% 1.0 .36 22% .43 91% .39 0.94 62% 20% 36% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 20% .35 50% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 George Mason B- D- F B D 39% 20% 41% B- D+ B A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ A F A+ F+ D 30% 30% 39% A D+ C+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+
1.10 50% 22% 37% -4 0 0.93 32% 1.4 .45 14% .38 76% .29 1.01 86% 21% 39% +6 -2 1.11 30% 0.7 .20 26% .32 53% .17
Feb
7		 George Washington A B C- B B 51% 18% 31% B+ B+ B+ F C- A+ A+ A- A+ F+ D A+ F D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ D+ A+ D- F F
1.29 65% 33% 38% +5 +1 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 6% .47 77% .36 1.26 67% 25% 41% +8 +1 1.20 54% 0.8 .43 23% .36 89% .33
Feb
14		 St. Bonaventure B- C F C+ C- 39% 12% 49% B C F+ C- F+ A+ D+ F D- B+ C- C- A+ B- 41% 43% 16% A+ B+ B D- C B+ F B F
1.13 59% 29% 36% +1 +1 1.05 21% 1.0 .21 9% .25 69% .17 1.06 60% 43% 25% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 20% .40 73% .29
Feb
18		 La Salle F A A+ F D+ 48% 10% 43% A- C F F F F A+ C A+ A A+ C- C B 38% 22% 40% C- B- C A B A+ D A+ B-
0.90 70% 75% 17% -2 +2 1.02 19% 0.8 .15 26% .43 68% .29 0.88 41% 40% 33% -6 0 0.89 33% 0.8 .26 26% .37 58% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 1.4 13.2 6.9 0.5 22.0 3rd
4th 0.0 10.3 10.4 0.4 21.2 4th
5th 0.9 16.0 1.6 0.0 18.5 5th
6th 0.0 5.0 8.2 0.1 13.4 6th
7th 0.3 9.9 1.2 11.3 7th
8th 1.8 6.8 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 3.2 1.3 4.4 9th
10th 0.4 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 5.6 23.9 37.1 25.4 7.4 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.6% 5.4% 5.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 7.4% 4.3% 4.3% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.1
11-7 25.4% 2.9% 2.9% 12.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 24.6
10-8 37.1% 1.7% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 36.5
9-9 23.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 23.8
8-10 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 5.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 12.1 98.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 3.3%