Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#208
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#317
Pace65.6#277
Improvement+1.2#108

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#266
First Shot-3.6#284
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#167
Layup/Dunks+0.0#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#160
Freethrows-1.7#273
Improvement+0.9#108

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#137
First Shot+0.6#153
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#152
Layups/Dunks+1.1#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#141
Freethrows-2.4#317
Improvement+0.3#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 2.1% 3.1% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 14.0% 8.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 30.1% 27.3% 34.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 71 - 9
Quad 34 - 95 - 19
Quad 44 - 49 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   Lipscomb L 72-77 37%     0 - 1 -3.9 -5.1 +1.6
  Nov 08, 2024 108   Princeton L 68-75 28%     0 - 2 -3.1 -7.4 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2024 97   @ DePaul L 58-84 16%     0 - 3 -17.4 -4.1 -16.8
  Nov 19, 2024 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-80 56%     0 - 4 -9.8 -2.0 -7.9
  Nov 24, 2024 120   South Dakota St. L 60-71 32%     0 - 5 -8.5 -7.9 -1.3
  Nov 25, 2024 264   Hampton L 59-64 63%     0 - 6 -10.8 -12.3 +1.2
  Nov 26, 2024 317   Old Dominion W 67-54 74%     1 - 6 +4.2 -10.8 +14.8
  Dec 03, 2024 209   St. Peter's L 59-62 62%     1 - 7 -8.3 -4.0 -4.9
  Dec 06, 2024 213   Delaware W 80-66 62%     2 - 7 +8.5 +8.4 +1.1
  Dec 11, 2024 211   Maine W 65-62 61%    
  Dec 14, 2024 147   Towson L 60-63 39%    
  Dec 21, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 62-71 21%    
  Dec 31, 2024 91   Rhode Island L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 134   @ Davidson L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 08, 2025 101   Saint Joseph's L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 15, 2025 151   @ George Washington L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 18, 2025 88   St. Bonaventure L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 21, 2025 46   Dayton L 64-74 18%    
  Jan 26, 2025 201   @ Fordham L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 29, 2025 101   @ Saint Joseph's L 63-73 18%    
  Feb 01, 2025 171   Massachusetts W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 186   @ Richmond L 64-68 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 86   Loyola Chicago L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 46   @ Dayton L 61-77 8%    
  Feb 19, 2025 201   Fordham W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 88   @ St. Bonaventure L 60-71 15%    
  Feb 26, 2025 143   @ La Salle L 68-74 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 82   George Mason L 61-67 30%    
  Mar 04, 2025 55   Virginia Commonwealth L 61-70 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis L 69-76 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.4 2.2 1.9 0.2 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.7 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.6 3.6 0.3 0.0 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.3 1.2 0.0 12.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 4.4 6.3 2.1 0.1 13.7 13th
14th 0.1 1.3 5.1 6.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 16.6 14th
15th 0.8 3.1 6.1 6.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 19.3 15th
Total 0.8 3.3 7.5 11.8 15.0 15.6 14.4 11.6 8.3 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 44.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 5.5% 5.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 3.2% 3.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
9-9 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.5
8-10 8.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
7-11 11.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.6
6-12 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-13 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
4-14 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.8
2-16 7.5% 7.5
1-17 3.3% 3.3
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%