St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.4 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +13.7 #37
Pace 63.7 #313
Improvement -2.4 #283

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 B- B+ C+ A- C+
Defense #35 B+ B+ D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.19 #141 +2.5 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.71 #259 -0.6 #212
Three Pointers 38% #242 1.17 #20 +1.4 #130
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #84 +3.3 #84
Freethrows 0.34 #79 83% #1 0.28 #14
Second Chance 37.1% #26 1.10 #77 0.41 #32
Turnovers 16.3% #138
Total Offense +5.7 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #182 1.02 #33 +2.7 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #44 0.72 #118 -1.6 #299
Three Pointers 35% #327 0.89 #30 +5.2 #12
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #26 +6.3 #26
Freethrows 0.24 #21 72% #162 0.17 #27
Second Chance 24.5% #16 0.93 #54 0.23 #14
Turnovers 15.4% #273
Total Defense +6.6 #35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #157 -1.3% #75
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #81 -11.1% #25
Possession Length 17.9 #247 17.8 #270
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #182 0.19 #244
Improvement -1.6 #277 -0.8 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 2.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.7% 54.7% 41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.7% 45.6% 33.4%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 15.5% 17.7% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four20.1% 20.2% 19.5%
First Round43.2% 45.3% 31.8%
Second Round17.9% 18.9% 12.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 3.9% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 26 - 27 - 6
Quad 310 - 017 - 7
Quad 49 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 122 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 88% +11  1 - 0 +25 +16 A C B- +11 B- A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 269 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 97% +12  2 - 0 +12 +13 A+ D- F -0 C B B+
 Tue, Nov 11 193 Ohio W 90 - 60 94% +15  3 - 0 +25 +15 B- A+ A- +10 A+ D A-
 Fri, Nov 14 150 North Texas W 80 - 49 91% +23  4 - 0 +29 +15 C A+ C +15 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 169 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 92% +7  5 - 0 +9 +11 B A+ F+ -2 B B- F
 Wed, Nov 26 98 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 76% +3  6 - 0 +10 +1 F B- A- +9 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 58 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 62% +8  7 - 0 +20 +12 A A D- +9 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 12 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 27% -13  7 - 1 -6 +4 B+ C D+ -10 C+ F D-
 Sun, Dec 7 111 @Davidson W 70 - 61 71% +1  8 - 1 +16 +7 C+ B- C+ +10 A+ A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 59 Boise St. L 67 - 68 62% -6  8 - 2 +8 -0 F C+ B- +8 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 110 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 86% +10  9 - 2 +14 +9 B- B+ C +4 A+ C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 107 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 86% -2  10 - 2 +6 +4 F A+ C +3 B B D+
 Sun, Dec 28 154 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 81% +1  11 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +23 A+ A+ A+ -14 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 274 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 92% +12  12 - 2 2 - 0 +23 +9 B C+ C+ +18 A+ B B
 Fri, Jan 2 205 Portland W 78 - 57 94% +14  13 - 2 3 - 0 +15 +10 A C B- +7 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 130 Seattle W 93 - 76 89% +0  14 - 2 4 - 0 +16 +33 A+ A+ A+ -16 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 127 Washington St. W 88 - 82 89% +9  15 - 2 5 - 0 +5 +12 A+ F+ F -7 D- B- C
 Tue, Jan 13 105 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 68% +9  16 - 2 6 - 0 +22 +16 A- A+ D+ +6 B- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 43 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 40% -7  16 - 3 6 - 1 +7 -10 F C+ B- +17 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 179 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 93% +14  17 - 3 7 - 1 +26 +16 B- A+ A- +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 205 @Portland W 75 - 69 87% +4  18 - 3 8 - 1 +6 +8 B+ D- C- -1 B B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 14 @Gonzaga L 65 - 73 20% -3  18 - 4 8 - 2 +13 +5 C- D+ A +8 A+ C C
 Wed, Feb 4 210 San Diego W 87 - 60 94% +19  19 - 4 9 - 2 +21 +19 A A+ A- +5 C A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 105 San Francisco W 75 - 64 85%
 Wed, Feb 11 274 Pepperdine W 80 - 58 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 125 @Pacific W 72 - 65 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 130 @Seattle W 70 - 62 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 127 @Washington St. W 76 - 69 75%
 Wed, Feb 25 43 Santa Clara W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 14 Gonzaga L 72 - 75 38%
Totals 24 - 6 14 - 4 +12 +6 B- B+ C+ +7 B+ B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.4 10.0 15.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 11.0 19.8 32.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 7.7 18.5 21.8 2.5 52.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.6 7.7 19.8 33.0 27.7 10.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 10.0    3.8 6.2
15-3 19.4% 5.4    0.5 2.2 2.7
14-4 0.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 15.5% 15.5 4.3 8.4 2.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 10.0% 82.0% 32.7% 49.3% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.0 1.8 73.3%
15-3 27.7% 66.7% 19.2% 47.5% 9.9 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.3 6.6 6.2 0.1 9.2 58.8%
14-4 33.0% 51.3% 13.4% 37.9% 10.4 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.8 9.4 0.2 16.1 43.7%
13-5 19.8% 34.7% 10.8% 23.9% 10.7 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.7 0.2 12.9 26.8%
12-6 7.7% 26.0% 9.7% 16.3% 10.8 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.0 5.7 18.1%
11-7 1.6% 10.1% 3.8% 6.3% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 6.5%
10-8 0.2% 0.0 0.2
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.7% 16.0% 36.7% 10.0 47.3 43.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 6.7 1.5 7.0 11.6 28.4 22.0 17.7 9.8 1.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.7% 74.3% 9.5 0.4 3.6 8.8 19.5 27.6 14.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1% 71.0% 9.7 0.5 1.9 6.8 16.4 27.1 18.4