St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#41
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#25
Pace61.0#341
Improvement+1.7#50

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#102
First Shot+2.2#114
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#153
Layup/Dunks+8.6#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#162
Freethrows-1.1#252
Improvement+0.6#111

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#13
First Shot+2.9#88
After Offensive Rebounds+5.1#2
Layups/Dunks-2.7#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#46
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement+1.1#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 2.4% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 10.1% 3.5%
Top 6 Seed 15.5% 23.2% 10.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.9% 78.2% 58.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.4% 76.3% 56.3%
Average Seed 8.4 7.9 8.9
.500 or above 97.9% 99.5% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 91.4% 86.3%
Conference Champion 5.6% 6.8% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four11.0% 9.7% 11.9%
First Round61.3% 72.9% 53.2%
Second Round31.2% 39.7% 25.1%
Sweet Sixteen10.9% 14.5% 8.4%
Elite Eight4.3% 5.8% 3.2%
Final Four1.5% 2.1% 1.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 41.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 7
Quad 24 - 27 - 8
Quad 38 - 115 - 10
Quad 48 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 253   Prairie View W 87-68 95%     1 - 0 +11.1 +10.4 +0.7
  Nov 12, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 67-58 92%     2 - 0 +4.2 -4.1 +8.8
  Nov 15, 2021 139   Southern Utah W 70-51 86%     3 - 0 +17.9 -4.3 +22.1
  Nov 17, 2021 177   Bellarmine W 73-64 90%     4 - 0 +5.4 -1.0 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2021 64   Notre Dame W 62-59 62%     5 - 0 +10.4 -2.5 +13.3
  Nov 23, 2021 45   Oregon W 62-50 52%     6 - 0 +22.0 -0.6 +23.7
  Nov 24, 2021 31   Wisconsin L 55-61 43%     6 - 1 +6.3 -1.8 +7.3
  Nov 29, 2021 138   UC Riverside W 67-50 86%     7 - 1 +16.0 +9.2 +9.8
  Dec 02, 2021 46   @ Utah St. L 63-65 41%    
  Dec 04, 2021 42   @ Colorado St. L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 11, 2021 119   UC Santa Barbara W 67-57 84%    
  Dec 17, 2021 49   San Diego St. W 59-58 54%    
  Dec 22, 2021 93   Missouri St. W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 28, 2021 124   Yale W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 50   San Francisco W 65-61 65%    
  Jan 06, 2022 79   @ Santa Clara W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 08, 2022 20   @ BYU L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 13, 2022 236   @ Pepperdine W 70-59 84%    
  Jan 15, 2022 189   Pacific W 68-53 91%    
  Jan 20, 2022 79   Santa Clara W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 129   @ Loyola Marymount W 67-62 68%    
  Jan 27, 2022 50   @ San Francisco L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 236   Pepperdine W 73-56 94%    
  Feb 03, 2022 255   @ Portland W 70-58 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 129   Loyola Marymount W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 10, 2022 154   San Diego W 68-55 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 63-77 10%    
  Feb 19, 2022 20   BYU L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 24, 2022 154   @ San Diego W 65-58 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 66-74 23%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.1 5.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.9 8.8 6.0 1.2 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 8.6 11.0 4.4 0.3 27.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 8.2 7.7 1.6 0.1 20.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 6.1 4.4 0.7 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.8 0.3 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 6.8 11.0 15.4 18.1 17.5 13.8 8.0 3.4 1.0 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 1.0    0.8 0.2
14-2 65.8% 2.2    1.1 1.1 0.1
13-3 21.3% 1.7    0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
15-1 1.0% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 2.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-2 3.4% 99.7% 25.0% 74.7% 4.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.6%
13-3 8.0% 98.8% 16.2% 82.5% 5.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.5%
12-4 13.8% 96.2% 10.0% 86.2% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.5 95.8%
11-5 17.5% 87.1% 7.8% 79.4% 8.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.9 3.6 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 86.0%
10-6 18.1% 71.7% 5.0% 66.8% 9.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.7 3.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 5.1 70.2%
9-7 15.4% 54.0% 2.6% 51.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.2 1.4 0.1 7.1 52.8%
8-8 11.0% 32.2% 1.7% 30.5% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 7.5 31.1%
7-9 6.8% 13.0% 1.5% 11.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.9 11.7%
6-10 3.1% 2.9% 1.0% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1 1.9%
5-11 1.1% 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.9%
4-12 0.4% 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 66.9% 6.8% 60.0% 8.4 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.0 5.3 6.4 7.5 10.4 10.9 11.8 4.1 0.3 0.0 33.1 64.4%