St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.6 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +15.2 #32
Pace 63.9 #317
Improvement -1.6 #274

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #51 B A+ A+ B- C+
Defense #43 A A- B+ D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.21 #120 +3.8 #65
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #199 0.70 #248 -0.9 #218
Three Pointers 38% #254 1.14 #33 +0.7 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #84 +3.6 #83
Freethrows 20.2 #54 83% #2 16.8 #9
Second Chance 39.7% #13 1.14 #85 0.45 #20
Turnovers 15.4% #101
Total Offense +6.8 #51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #189 0.99 #22 +3.3 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #59 0.76 #194 -1.9 #307
Three Pointers 36% #297 0.83 #17 +5.6 #20
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #22 +7.1 #22
Freethrows 12.2 #13 78% #351 9.6 #339
Second Chance 25.7% #34 0.98 #112 0.25 #39
Turnovers 14.7% #293
Total Defense +5.8 #43

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #123 -1.1% #82
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.9% #88 -12.8% #18
Possession Length 17.8 #231 17.9 #294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #184 0.18 #216
Improvement +1.3 #97 -2.9 #332

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.0% 3.3% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.9% 51.1% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.4% 40.5% 27.4%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 17.2% 18.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.8% 15.9% 14.9%
First Round42.8% 43.9% 30.3%
Second Round19.6% 20.2% 12.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 5.2% 2.9%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.7% 1.1%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 91.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 311 - 118 - 6
Quad 48 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 138 St. Thomas W 84-58 90%     10.9   1 - 0 +24.3 +15.7 +10.7
  Fri, Nov 7 276 Chattanooga W 87-66 97%     11.9   2 - 0 +11.5 +12.0 +0.4
  Tue, Nov 11 175 Ohio W 90-60 93%     14.8   3 - 0 +26.0 +16.2 +10.1
  Fri, Nov 14 134 North Texas W 80-49 90%     22.7   4 - 0 +29.6 +15.3 +15.8
  Wed, Nov 19 128 Arkansas St. W 85-72 89%     7.4   5 - 0 +12.0 +12.3 -0.1
  Wed, Nov 26 104 Wichita St. W 70-65 77%     2.5   6 - 0 +9.8 +0.2 +9.7
  Thu, Nov 27 66 Virginia Tech W 77-66 65%     8.1   7 - 0 +19.7 +10.9 +9.1
  Fri, Nov 28 7 Vanderbilt L 71-96 23%     -12.8   7 - 1 -4.5 +4.7 -8.4
  Sun, Dec 7 126 @Davidson W 70-61 77%     0.8   8 - 1 +14.0 +7.1 +7.7
  Sun, Dec 14 53 Boise St. L 67-68 59%     -5.6   8 - 2 +9.3 +2.9 +6.3
  Fri, Dec 19 106 Florida Atlantic W 88-75 85%     10.1   9 - 2 +14.5 +8.5 +5.0
  Mon, Dec 22 95 Northern Iowa W 63-58 83%     -1.9   10 - 2 +7.4 +4.0 +4.1
  Sun, Dec 28 123 @Loyola Marymount W 78-73 76%     1.0   11 - 2 1 - 0 +10.3 +24.0 -12.7
  Tue, Dec 30 265 @Pepperdine W 72-45 92%     11.6   12 - 2 2 - 0 +24.1 +10.5 +17.4
  Fri, Jan 2 243 Portland W 78-57 96%     13.7   13 - 2 3 - 0 +13.3 +9.7 +5.6
  Sun, Jan 4 117 Seattle W 93-76 87%     0.0   14 - 2 4 - 0 +17.5 +31.4 -12.5
  Sat, Jan 10 144 Washington St. W 79-64 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 100 @San Francisco W 71-67 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 62 @Santa Clara W 75-74 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 199 Oregon St. W 78-60 95%    
  Sat, Jan 24 243 @Portland W 79-65 91%    
  Sat, Jan 31 8 @Gonzaga L 70-81 16%    
  Wed, Feb 4 230 San Diego W 84-65 97%    
  Sat, Feb 7 100 San Francisco W 74-64 84%    
  Wed, Feb 11 265 Pepperdine W 79-58 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 140 @Pacific W 74-66 79%    
  Wed, Feb 18 117 @Seattle W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 144 @Washington St. W 76-67 79%    
  Wed, Feb 25 62 Santa Clara W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 8 Gonzaga L 73-78 33%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.1 6.3 0.8 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 9.3 19.2 20.9 8.6 60.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 5.8 6.6 3.3 0.4 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.7 9.0 16.1 22.9 23.8 15.7 6.3 0.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 6.3    4.2 2.2
16-2 45.1% 7.1    2.6 4.4 0.1
15-3 10.9% 2.6    0.5 1.8 0.3
14-4 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 8.1 8.6 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 98.8% 36.1% 62.7% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
17-1 6.3% 91.4% 30.9% 60.5% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.5 87.5%
16-2 15.7% 79.1% 25.5% 53.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 3.5 2.4 0.0 3.3 72.0%
15-3 23.8% 60.0% 20.3% 39.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.7 6.0 0.1 9.5 49.9%
14-4 22.9% 43.4% 15.6% 27.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 6.1 0.1 13.0 33.0%
13-5 16.1% 28.6% 11.4% 17.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 0.1 11.5 19.5%
12-6 9.0% 17.1% 7.3% 9.8% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 7.5 10.5%
11-7 3.7% 10.4% 6.7% 3.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 4.0%
10-8 1.1% 5.9% 3.6% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.4%
9-9 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 49.9% 17.5% 32.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.5 4.3 7.2 12.7 19.7 0.5 50.1 39.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.8 1.6 1.6 27.9 55.7 11.5 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 98.8% 5.9 1.2 9.5 31.0 23.8 21.4 9.5 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 95.8% 6.1 8.3 29.2 20.8 20.8 8.3 8.3