St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#44
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#38
Pace66.6#254
Improvement-2.2#313

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#72
First Shot+1.5#132
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#31
Layup/Dunks+1.3#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#249
Freethrows+4.6#9
Improvement-2.0#325

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#23
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#29
Layups/Dunks+0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#47
Freethrows+2.1#57
Improvement-0.2#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 1.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.7% 41.7% 26.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.8% 31.7% 17.5%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.6% 97.4%
Conference Champion 10.1% 12.5% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.7% 14.8% 10.6%
First Round31.6% 35.2% 21.6%
Second Round14.1% 16.0% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.0% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 311 - 117 - 7
Quad 47 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 135 St. Thomas W 84-58 88%     1 - 0 +24.7 +16.5 +10.2
  Fri, Nov 7 235 Chattanooga W 87-66 95%     2 - 0 +13.6 +12.3 +2.0
  Tue, Nov 11 189 Ohio W 90-60 93%     3 - 0 +25.1 +14.9 +10.5
  Fri, Nov 14 146 North Texas W 80-49 90%     4 - 0 +29.0 +14.3 +16.1
  Wed, Nov 19 136 Arkansas St. W 85-72 88%     5 - 0 +11.7 +11.5 +0.4
  Wed, Nov 26 98 Wichita St. W 70-65 73%     6 - 0 +10.5 +1.4 +9.2
  Thu, Nov 27 74 Virginia Tech W 77-66 65%     7 - 0 +18.7 +9.7 +9.3
  Fri, Nov 28 9 Vanderbilt L 71-96 21%     7 - 1 -4.9 +4.4 -8.4
  Sun, Dec 7 140 @Davidson W 70-61 76%     8 - 1 +13.4 +6.0 +8.2
  Sun, Dec 14 51 Boise St. L 67-68 56%     8 - 2 +9.1 +1.8 +7.3
  Fri, Dec 19 114 Florida Atlantic W 88-75 85%     9 - 2 +13.4 +6.6 +5.8
  Mon, Dec 22 93 Northern Iowa W 63-58 80%     10 - 2 +8.0 +4.6 +4.0
  Sun, Dec 28 123 @Loyola Marymount W 70-64 73%    
  Tue, Dec 30 262 @Pepperdine W 75-61 91%    
  Fri, Jan 2 256 Portland W 82-62 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 112 Seattle W 74-63 85%    
  Sat, Jan 10 149 Washington St. W 79-65 90%    
  Tue, Jan 13 95 @San Francisco W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 86 @Santa Clara W 74-72 57%    
  Wed, Jan 21 154 Oregon St. W 75-61 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 256 @Portland W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 6 @Gonzaga L 69-82 12%    
  Wed, Feb 4 260 San Diego W 84-64 97%    
  Sat, Feb 7 95 San Francisco W 74-65 79%    
  Wed, Feb 11 262 Pepperdine W 78-58 97%    
  Sat, Feb 14 138 @Pacific W 73-66 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 112 @Seattle W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 149 @Washington St. W 76-68 77%    
  Wed, Feb 25 86 Santa Clara W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 6 Gonzaga L 72-79 27%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.2 3.2 0.4 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.7 13.1 18.7 15.5 5.7 58.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 7.0 5.4 1.5 0.1 17.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.3 8.4 13.9 18.7 20.7 17.5 9.9 3.2 0.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 3.2    2.1 1.1
16-2 42.2% 4.2    1.5 2.7 0.0
15-3 10.7% 1.9    0.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 1.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 4.5 5.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 97.6% 35.0% 62.6% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.3%
17-1 3.2% 91.1% 31.0% 60.1% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 87.1%
16-2 9.9% 76.5% 23.3% 53.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.0 2.3 69.4%
15-3 17.5% 58.0% 18.9% 39.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 4.3 0.1 7.4 48.2%
14-4 20.7% 40.7% 15.4% 25.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 5.1 0.2 12.2 29.9%
13-5 18.7% 26.9% 11.0% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 0.3 13.7 17.8%
12-6 13.9% 16.1% 7.8% 8.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.2 11.6 9.0%
11-7 8.4% 8.3% 5.1% 3.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 7.7 3.5%
10-8 4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 0.8%
9-9 1.9% 2.6% 2.1% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.5%
8-10 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.7% 13.7% 24.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 4.7 9.6 17.3 0.9 0.0 62.3 27.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.2 4.7 27.9 14.0 46.5 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 96.6% 5.8 22.0 32.2 13.6 11.9 10.2 3.4 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 95.2% 6.9 9.5 9.5 9.5 42.9 9.5 9.5 4.8