St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +12.9 41
Expected Predictive Rating +14.7 34
Pace 64.8 281
Improvement -2.1 270

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 67 B- B+ C+ B+ C+
Defense A- 28 A- A- D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 101 C+ 59% 138 +2.2 97
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 149 D+ 35% 276 -0.7 217
Three Pointers 38% 242 A- 39% 12 +1.5 131
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 164 B- +2.7 88
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 89
Second Chance B+ 37.1% 24 B- 1.11 63 B+ 0.41 27
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 136
Freethrows B- 0.33 93 A+ 81% 1 B+ 0.27 26
Total Offense B +5.5 67

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 68 B- 9.3% 87
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 36 C+ 4.1% 112
Three Pointers B+ 91% 31 C 1.0% 214
Total B+ 64% 34 C+ 5.1% 119

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 174 B+ 51% 26 -2.7 91
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 56 B 35% 68 +0.8 257
Three Pointers 36% 310 A- 29% 25 -4.9 17
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 86 A- -6.1 17
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 18
Second Chance A- 24.0% 15 B 0.94 59 A- 0.23 17
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 259
Freethrows B+ 0.24 21 C 72% 184 B+ 0.17 27
Total Defense A- +7.4 28

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 135 C+ 12.8% 100
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 318 C- 4.2% 215
Three Pointers C- 86% 240 B- 1.4% 78
Total C 55% 153 C+ 6.5% 107

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 239 17.7 256
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 185 0.18 202
Improvement -2.1 #287 +0.0 #194

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
10th 50th 90th
Predictive Rating Rank 45 40 34
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 8
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 2% 2% 1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73% 76% 64%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67% 71% 59%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 19% 24% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four22% 21% 25%
First Round63% 66% 52%
Second Round26% 29% 19%
Sweet Sixteen5% 5% 3%
Elite Eight1% 1% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 27 - 28 - 6
Quad 311 - 018 - 6
Quad 48 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 121 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 89% +11  86% 1 - 0 A+ +26 A +13 A C- C+ A+ +15 B A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 282 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 97% +12  90% 2 - 0 B +11 B+ +9 A+ D- F B- +3 C A- A-
 Tue, Nov 11 208 Ohio W 90 - 60 95% +15  84% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A +12 B- A+ B+ A+ +13 A+ D- A-
 Fri, Nov 14 138 North Texas W 80 - 49 91% +23  95% 4 - 0 A+ +29 A +12 C- A+ C A+ +19 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 140 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 91% +7  96% 5 - 0 B +11 A- +10 B+ A+ F+ C+ +2 A- B F
 Wed, Nov 26 97 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 77% +3  71% 6 - 0 B +10 C -0 F B A- A +10 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 59 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 64% +8  98% 7 - 0 A +20 B+ +9 A A F+ A+ +12 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 14 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 28% -13  0% 7 - 1 D+ -6 C +1 B+ C- D D- -7 C+ F+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 112 @Davidson W 70 - 61 74% +1  43% 8 - 1 A- +15 B- +4 C+ B- C+ A+ +12 A A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 65 Boise St. L 67 - 68 66% -6  2% 8 - 2 B- +8 D+ -4 F C+ B- A+ +11 C+ A A+
 Fri, Dec 19 118 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 88% +10  94% 9 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 B- B+ C- B+ +5 A D+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 90 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 82% -2  19% 10 - 2 B +8 C +1 F A+ C A- +7 B+ B+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 153 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 82% +1  56% 11 - 2 1 - 0 B- +8 A+ +20 A A+ A+ F -11 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 276 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 93% +12  98% 12 - 2 2 - 0 A+ +23 B- +5 B- C+ C A+ +22 A+ B+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 219 Portland W 78 - 57 95% +14  95% 13 - 2 3 - 0 A- +15 B+ +7 A C B- A +9 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 126 Seattle W 93 - 76 89% +0  34% 14 - 2 4 - 0 A- +17 A+ +32 A+ A+ A+ F -14 D- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 122 Washington St. W 88 - 82 89% +9  93% 15 - 2 5 - 0 B- +6 B+ +9 A F+ F D+ -3 D- B- C
 Tue, Jan 13 119 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 75% +9  88% 16 - 2 6 - 0 A +20 A +12 A- A D+ A- +8 B- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 42 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 41% -7  0% 16 - 3 6 - 1 B- +7 F -14 F C+ B- A+ +21 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 160 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 92% +14  97% 17 - 3 7 - 1 A+ +27 A +13 B A+ A- A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 219 @Portland W 75 - 69 89% +4  87% 18 - 3 8 - 1 B- +6 B +6 B+ F+ D+ C+ +1 B B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 10 @Gonzaga L 65 - 73 18% -3  18% 18 - 4 8 - 2 A- +14 C+ +3 D+ D+ A A+ +11 A+ C- C+
 Wed, Feb 4 220 San Diego W 87 - 60 95% +19  95% 19 - 4 9 - 2 A +21 A+ +16 A- A+ A- A- +7 C A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 119 San Francisco W 79 - 54 88% +15  95% 20 - 4 10 - 2 A+ +25 B+ +9 A- C+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 276 Pepperdine W 88 - 60 97% +16  94% 21 - 4 11 - 2 A +18 B +6 A A- F A+ +12 A+ B D+
 Sat, Feb 14 127 @Pacific W 72 - 61 76% +2  48% 22 - 4 12 - 2 A- +16 B+ +7 D- A+ A+ A +10 A C- A-
 Wed, Feb 18 126 @Seattle W 72 - 70 76% +5  76% 23 - 4 13 - 2 B- +8 B- +4 C- A+ C B +4 C+ A- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 122 @Washington St. W 77 - 70 75%
 Wed, Feb 25 42 Santa Clara W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 10 Gonzaga L 72 - 76 36%
Totals 25 - 5 15 - 3 +13 B +6 C- B- C+ A- +7 A- A+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ D+ A- B- 42% 40% 38% C+ B- B+ B- B+ C+ B- A+ B+ A- B+ B A- A- 39% 25% 36% B- A- A- B A- D+ B+ C B+
1.16 59% 35% 39% +3 0 1.08 37% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .27 0.98 51% 35% 29% -6 -1 0.89 24% 0.9 .23 16% .24 72% .24
Nov
3		 St. Thomas A A+ D+ A A+ 33% 19% 48% D+ A B+ F C- C+ A B A A+ C- F A+ A- 51% 8% 41% D- B A- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28 0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05
Nov
7		 Chattanooga B+ C A+ A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% D+ A+ D+ F+ D- F A+ A+ A+ B- D D+ B D+ 29% 29% 42% A- C C+ A+ A- A- F D F
1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51 0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28
Nov
11		 Ohio A C- F A+ B- 42% 19% 38% C B- A- A+ A+ B+ B B B+ A+ C+ B A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% B A+ C- F D- A- A+ F A+
1.30 55% 30% 45% +3 0 1.10 42% 1.5 .65 13% .36 77% .28 0.86 56% 40% 15% -11 -1 0.77 29% 1.2 .34 20% .13 86% .11
Nov
14		 North Texas A F F A D 47% 13% 40% A- C- A+ B+ A+ C B A+ A A+ A+ A+ C A+ 47% 17% 36% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.20 43% 17% 39% -7 +2 0.91 54% 1.2 .62 22% .41 81% .33 0.73 16% 22% 32% -24 +1 0.57 21% 0.7 .15 12% .24 86% .20
Nov
19		 Arkansas St. A- C F A+ B 51% 19% 30% B+ B+ A+ B+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ C+ A- B- A- A 47% 10% 43% F+ A- C+ B+ B F A+ F A-
1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45 1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19
Nov
26		 Wichita St. C D+ B- F F 43% 29% 29% B- F B- B+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A A A- B- A 48% 26% 26% C A- A+ B+ A+ A- D+ F F+
1.02 52% 43% 7% -13 -1 0.76 31% 1.1 .33 13% .44 85% .37 0.95 46% 31% 31% -9 0 0.84 26% 0.9 .23 19% .34 79% .27
Nov
27		 Virginia Tech B+ B A+ C- A 49% 16% 36% A- A A B- A F+ A+ A A+ A+ C B A+ A+ 25% 31% 44% A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.14 64% 57% 31% +4 +1 1.13 41% 1.1 .44 22% .36 79% .28 0.97 62% 31% 26% -6 -2 0.85 39% 0.5 .20 13% .34 85% .29
Nov
28		 Vanderbilt C C+ A C- B+ 35% 24% 41% C+ B+ D- A C- D C+ A+ A D- F A+ F C 41% 30% 29% A C+ C+ F F+ D- C D C-
0.98 56% 45% 32% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 22% .35 90% .32 1.32 83% 12% 44% +6 -1 1.13 31% 1.5 .49 10% .34 82% .27
Dec
7		 Davidson B- B- C D C+ 46% 33% 22% C C+ A+ F B- C+ B- C- C+ A+ C- C+ A A 29% 29% 42% A A A A+ A+ D C+ A+ B+
1.09 62% 40% 30% +1 -1 1.02 46% 0.8 .35 17% .32 65% .21 0.95 60% 40% 27% -3 -2 0.92 23% 0.6 .13 14% .27 53% .15
Dec
14		 Boise St. D+ F+ D- F F 40% 26% 34% C+ F B+ F+ C+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C F B- C 36% 26% 38% A C+ A+ F A A+ A+ F A-
0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34 0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22
Dec
19		 Florida Atlantic B A+ F F C+ 46% 12% 42% B B- A+ D- B+ C- A+ A A+ B+ A+ F C+ A+ 46% 17% 37% D A A F D+ C+ F A D-
1.15 71% 17% 27% -1 +2 1.04 42% 0.9 .36 17% .52 79% .41 0.98 33% 56% 32% -10 +1 0.85 25% 1.6 .40 18% .40 64% .26
Dec
22		 Northern Iowa C F F F F 40% 21% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A- A- D B- B+ 42% 21% 37% B B+ A+ F B+ D+ A+ D- A+
1.02 41% 11% 18% -22 0 0.58 41% 1.2 .49 18% .53 93% .49 0.94 50% 45% 32% -3 0 0.96 10% 1.7 .17 13% .07 75% .06
Dec
28		 Loyola Marymount A+ C C+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% C- A B+ A+ A+ A+ A- F+ B- F A F D- D 28% 34% 38% A D+ D- F F F C B C+
1.31 56% 38% 50% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .55 10% .36 68% .24 1.23 46% 56% 39% +6 -2 1.09 32% 1.4 .46 10% .26 64% .17
Dec
30		 Pepperdine B- A- B D+ B 47% 19% 34% C- B- D+ A C+ C F+ A+ C A+ B- B A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% D+ A+ A- B- B+ B+ A+ C+ A+
1.17 68% 44% 31% +5 +1 1.13 28% 1.3 .36 16% .19 100% .19 0.73 53% 33% 18% -14 0 0.75 22% 0.9 .19 21% .08 75% .06
Jan
2		 Portland B+ A F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A C- C+ C B- A B A A A- F+ A+ A+ 46% 25% 29% B- A+ D A+ A F B- F D+
1.22 71% 25% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 16% .39 76% .30 0.89 50% 46% 7% -14 0 0.75 33% 0.7 .23 14% .27 87% .24
Jan
4		 Seattle A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 13% 29% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A F B F F D- 47% 14% 40% D D- A- C B- F A+ D+ A+
1.44 70% 29% 47% +11 +2 1.29 59% 1.2 .72 14% .34 84% .29 1.18 52% 50% 43% +4 +1 1.14 19% 0.9 .17 8% .12 71% .08
Jan
10		 Washington St. B+ D+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% B- A C+ F F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ F+ F C- D 43% 12% 45% D- D- B+ C- B- C D C D
1.24 53% 38% 48% +9 0 1.21 29% 0.6 .18 20% .35 100% .35 1.16 71% 67% 36% +11 +1 1.27 25% 1.0 .25 18% .33 74% .24
Jan
13		 San Francisco A D+ B- A+ A 40% 32% 28% D A- C+ A+ A D+ A+ A+ A+ A- C B- D+ C 31% 28% 41% A B- A+ F B+ D A+ A+ A+
1.23 53% 40% 54% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.5 .43 15% .44 88% .39 1.02 59% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.6 .29 14% .23 38% .09
Jan
17		 Santa Clara F F C- F F 38% 19% 43% C- F C B- C+ B- A- F C+ A+ B A A+ A+ 42% 31% 27% A A+ A+ A A+ C- F D+ F
0.80 39% 33% 15% -20 0 0.62 30% 1.1 .33 19% .40 64% .26 0.92 55% 33% 23% -7 -1 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 15% .35 75% .26
Jan
21		 Oregon St. A C+ D C B- 48% 13% 39% B B B+ A A+ A- A C A A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 26% 33% B A+ B+ A+ A+ D- F C- F
1.29 59% 33% 33% 0 +2 1.04 39% 1.2 .48 11% .41 74% .30 0.81 35% 45% 14% -17 -1 0.67 21% 0.5 .10 14% .50 78% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Portland B D B- A+ B+ 46% 17% 37% B- B+ C+ F F+ D+ B A+ A+ C+ B+ A+ D- B 43% 24% 33% B- B A F B- F C F D-
1.15 52% 38% 47% +5 +1 1.13 34% 0.7 .24 18% .34 89% .30 1.06 52% 25% 38% -4 0 0.94 21% 1.4 .30 14% .30 88% .27
Jan
31		 Gonzaga C+ A F D C- 26% 38% 36% F+ D+ D+ D- D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C- A 29% 42% 29% A+ A+ A F C- C+ F+ A D+
0.96 67% 22% 29% -6 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .14 16% .44 92% .40 1.07 71% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 29% 1.5 .45 15% .36 62% .22
Feb
4		 San Diego A+ D+ A A+ A 45% 21% 34% C- A- B+ A A+ A- B- A B+ A- D+ A+ F C 33% 27% 40% B- C B A+ A+ C- C A+ A+
1.36 57% 50% 50% +10 0 1.23 42% 1.3 .55 16% .37 80% .30 0.94 63% 23% 42% +2 -1 1.04 26% 0.5 .13 17% .25 38% .09
Feb
7		 San Francisco B+ D+ B- A+ A- 52% 19% 30% A- A- A- D- C+ A+ F C+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F D+
1.23 54% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 8% .14 75% .10 0.84 40% 22% 25% -15 0 0.71 15% 0.7 .10 9% .27 94% .26
Feb
11		 Pepperdine B F A A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% D- A A+ D- A- F A+ F B A+ A- A+ A- A+ 38% 20% 42% D+ A+ B- B B D+ A A+ A+
1.23 44% 50% 54% +12 0 1.26 49% 0.9 .46 21% .39 59% .23 0.84 48% 8% 28% -14 0 0.75 26% 0.8 .22 17% .20 58% .12
Feb
14		 Pacific B+ A F D- F+ 31% 25% 44% C+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A A A+ F A+ 50% 20% 30% D- A A F C- A- B D- B-
1.13 71% 7% 29% -7 -1 0.85 33% 1.4 .45 6% .24 86% .20 0.96 43% 22% 43% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.3 .36 24% .23 82% .19
Feb
18		 Seattle B- C- D+ D C 47% 31% 22% D+ C- C- A+ A+ C A+ A A+ B D+ D- A- C 42% 24% 34% B C+ A+ B- A- D+ F+ C+ D-
0.99 52% 36% 30% -5 -1 0.91 29% 1.7 .48 21% .47 78% .36 0.96 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 16% 0.8 .13 17% .36 68% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 18.2 18.5 1st
2nd 3.7 38.5 42.2 2nd
3rd 6.4 26.9 6.0 39.3 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.4 30.6 44.8 18.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 18.2    0.8 17.4
15-3 0.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 18.5% 18.5 0.8 17.4 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 18.2% 88.9% 33.2% 55.7% 8.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 1.7 2.0 83.4%
15-3 44.8% 77.3% 14.4% 62.9% 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.5 7.4 11.5 10.4 0.1 10.2 73.5%
14-4 30.6% 62.2% 10.2% 52.0% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 5.7 9.9 0.2 11.6 57.9%
13-5 6.4% 45.6% 9.6% 36.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 0.1 3.5 39.9%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 72.8% 16.2% 56.5% 9.7 27.2 67.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.0% 100.0% 7.6 0.4 4.3 15.3 27.8 27.1 18.4 5.8 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.9% 83.7% 9.4 0.2 0.7 3.4 12.9 26.1 28.2 12.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 82.2% 9.6 0.5 2.0 8.6 21.8 31.8 17.6
Lose Out 1.1% 22.6% 11.0 0.9 20.4 1.4