Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.6 #17
Expected Predictive Rating +17.9 #19
Pace 65.2 #273
Improvement -0.5 #212

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #34 B A+ C- B B-
Defense #14 A- A- C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #40 1.26 #78 +5.6 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #214 0.79 #130 -0.5 #207
Three Pointers 37% #261 1.11 #57 -0.2 #186
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #55 +4.8 #55
Freethrows 0.38 #12 70% #258 0.26 #42
Second Chance 45.5% #1 1.05 #148 0.48 #4
Turnovers 18.3% #264
Total Offense +8.4 #34

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.02 #37 +4.5 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.65 #25 +1.0 #113
Three Pointers 44% #82 0.86 #19 +1.8 #111
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #14 +7.3 #14
Freethrows 0.29 #139 67% #10 0.19 #71
Second Chance 25.2% #22 0.89 #32 0.22 #15
Turnovers 18.2% #107
Total Defense +9.2 #14

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #95 -0.6% #116
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.0% #63 -13.8% #7
Possession Length 16.3 #84 19.2 #362
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #52 0.12 #27
Improvement +0.3 #156 -0.8 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 5.7% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 37.9% 40.7% 20.4%
Top 6 Seed 79.3% 81.8% 64.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.8% 98.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.8% 98.1%
Average Seed 5.1 5.0 5.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.7% 90.9%
Conference Champion 11.3% 12.7% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 1.3%
First Round99.4% 99.7% 97.6%
Second Round81.4% 82.6% 74.2%
Sweet Sixteen40.4% 41.8% 31.7%
Elite Eight16.5% 17.2% 12.7%
Final Four6.7% 7.0% 4.9%
Championship Game2.5% 2.7% 1.4%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 214 - 10
Quad 33 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 149 Mercer W 76 - 61 96% +11  1 - 0 +13 -0 D+ A+ F +13 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 194 Northern Kentucky W 95 - 56 97% +18  2 - 0 +34 +20 A- A+ B +14 A+ C B+
 Wed, Nov 12 350 North Florida W 99 - 66 99% +15  3 - 0 +17 +4 D+ A+ F +11 A+ C B+
 Mon, Nov 17 232 Rice W 91 - 66 98% +12  4 - 0 +18 +15 B- A+ C +4 B+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 242 Tennessee St. W 89 - 60 98% +22  5 - 0 +21 +1 D A+ D- +17 A A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 114 Rutgers W 85 - 60 90% +19  6 - 0 +28 +18 A A+ D+ +12 B+ A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 6 Houston W 76 - 73 35% -2  7 - 0 +25 +25 B A+ A+ -0 D+ A- B
 Wed, Nov 26 12 Kansas L 76 - 81 45% +3  7 - 1 +14 +14 A- B+ A -1 A A C-
 Tue, Dec 2 68 @Syracuse L 60 - 62 73% -2  7 - 2 +9 -7 D+ B F +16 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 7 Illinois L 62 - 75 36% -4  7 - 3 +8 +5 D- A+ F +2 B- B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 16 Louisville W 83 - 62 60% +11  8 - 3 +36 +17 A+ A- B +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 52 100% +26  9 - 3 +21 +11 B+ B B- +10 B B+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 359 South Carolina St. W 105 - 54 100% +23  10 - 3 +33 +26 A+ A+ B- +8 A- B F
 Sat, Jan 3 23 @Arkansas L 75 - 86 43% -1  10 - 4 0 - 1 +8 +4 B- C+ C- +6 A+ B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 31 Texas W 85 - 71 72% +11  11 - 4 1 - 1 +26 +18 A+ A+ F+ +9 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 5 @Florida L 67 - 91 25% -10  11 - 5 1 - 2 +1 +3 B C+ F -1 C- B+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 27 Texas A&M W 87 - 82 2OT 69% -3  12 - 5 2 - 2 +18 +6 F+ A+ D+ +11 A- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 26 Kentucky L 78 - 80 68% +7  12 - 6 2 - 3 +11 +20 A+ C- D+ -9 B- F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 20 @Alabama W 79 - 73 39% -1  13 - 6 3 - 3 +26 +16 A+ C C +10 A+ B D
 Wed, Jan 28 34 @Georgia W 86 - 85 OT 52% -1  14 - 6 4 - 3 +18 +21 B A+ B -3 F+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 28 Auburn W 77 - 69 69% +8  15 - 6 5 - 3 +21 +9 C+ B+ D- +12 A+ B- C+
 Tue, Feb 3 59 Mississippi W 75 - 64 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 26 @Kentucky L 72 - 73 46%
 Wed, Feb 11 73 @Mississippi St. W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 49 LSU W 78 - 69 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 55 Oklahoma W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 13 @Vanderbilt L 73 - 77 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 54 @Missouri W 75 - 70 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 20 Alabama W 83 - 80 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 91 @South Carolina W 75 - 66 80%
 Sat, Mar 7 13 Vanderbilt W 76 - 74 57%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +18 +8 B A+ C- +9 A- A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.6 5.3 2.2 11.3 1st
2nd 0.1 3.7 10.6 4.4 0.3 19.0 2nd
3rd 1.2 9.6 5.3 0.3 16.5 3rd
4th 0.2 5.6 8.4 0.6 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 8.7 2.6 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.2 4.3 4.9 0.2 9.5 6th
7th 1.1 5.1 1.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.3 2.3 2.0 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.6 1.5 0.3 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.8 13.1 21.5 24.8 20.1 9.9 2.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 89.8% 2.2    1.4 0.8 0.1
14-4 53.0% 5.3    1.7 2.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 17.7% 3.6    0.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 3.2 4.7 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.5% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.9% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.2 0.4 1.9 4.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-5 20.1% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 4.0 0.1 1.1 4.9 7.7 5.0 1.3 0.1 100.0%
12-6 24.8% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 4.9 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.3 8.9 5.1 1.5 0.2 100.0%
11-7 21.5% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 5.7 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.4 7.2 4.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
10-8 13.1% 99.8% 5.3% 94.5% 6.5 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 4.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 5.8% 98.5% 2.9% 95.5% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.4%
8-10 1.9% 94.3% 1.6% 92.7% 8.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 94.2%
7-11 0.3% 71.9% 3.1% 68.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 71.0%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.6% 10.4% 89.2% 5.1 0.4 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.7 39.0 49.2 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 2.4 13.2 34.2 52.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 2.6 6.3 42.2 37.5 14.1