Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#15
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#33
Pace66.8#254
Improvement+0.6#131

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#32
First Shot+0.9#150
After Offensive Rebound+7.4#1
Layup/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#143
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement-0.5#222

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#12
First Shot+7.8#11
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#84
Layups/Dunks+3.6#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#74
Freethrows+0.5#138
Improvement+1.1#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 11.6% 11.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 41.7% 41.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 69.4% 69.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 93.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.0% 93.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 7.0
.500 or above 98.6% 98.6% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 86.0% 50.0%
Conference Champion 17.0% 17.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 0.0%
First Round92.9% 92.9% 100.0%
Second Round75.5% 75.5% 50.0%
Sweet Sixteen41.4% 41.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight18.8% 18.8% 0.0%
Final Four8.2% 8.2% 0.0%
Championship Game3.4% 3.4% 0.0%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 214 - 11
Quad 32 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 170 Mercer W 76-61 97%     1 - 0 +11.1 +0.5 +10.6
  Sat, Nov 8 195 Northern Kentucky W 95-56 97%     2 - 0 +33.7 +20.3 +13.6
  Wed, Nov 12 343 North Florida W 99-66 99%     3 - 0 +18.6 +9.1 +6.9
  Mon, Nov 17 206 Rice W 91-66 98%     4 - 0 +19.0 +16.7 +2.7
  Thu, Nov 20 230 Tennessee St. W 89-60 98%     5 - 0 +21.9 +5.5 +13.1
  Mon, Nov 24 130 Rutgers W 85-60 92%     6 - 0 +26.8 +17.8 +10.2
  Tue, Nov 25 8 Houston W 76-73 41%     7 - 0 +23.0 +26.0 -2.6
  Wed, Nov 26 17 Kansas L 76-81 51%     7 - 1 +12.2 +14.6 -2.5
  Tue, Dec 2 72 @Syracuse L 60-62 74%     7 - 2 +8.8 -5.3 +14.1
  Sat, Dec 6 12 Illinois L 62-75 48%     7 - 3 +4.9 +3.8 -0.6
  Tue, Dec 16 14 Louisville W 83-62 61%     8 - 3 +35.6 +16.1 +19.8
  Sun, Dec 21 362 Gardner-Webb W 93-57 100.0%   
  Tue, Dec 30 361 South Carolina St. W 90-55 100.0%   
  Sat, Jan 3 20 @Arkansas L 75-76 45%    
  Tue, Jan 6 40 Texas W 78-70 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 13 @Florida L 72-75 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 45 Texas A&M W 81-72 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 21 Kentucky W 76-71 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 16 @Alabama L 81-84 40%    
  Tue, Jan 27 19 @Georgia L 79-80 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 28 Auburn W 78-72 71%    
  Tue, Feb 3 60 Mississippi W 75-64 85%    
  Sat, Feb 7 21 @Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 84 @Mississippi St. W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 35 LSU W 77-69 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 47 Oklahoma W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 10 @Vanderbilt L 74-78 37%    
  Tue, Feb 24 49 @Missouri W 77-73 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 16 Alabama W 84-81 60%    
  Tue, Mar 3 86 @South Carolina W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 10 Vanderbilt W 77-75 58%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.1 5.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 17.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.8 6.0 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.6 4.7 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 5.1 1.2 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.7 2.5 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.7 3.8 0.4 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.0 1.2 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.2 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.6 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.9 6.4 10.6 13.2 14.5 14.9 13.2 9.7 6.0 2.7 1.1 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.6    2.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 83.8% 5.0    3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 52.7% 5.1    2.1 2.2 0.7 0.1
13-5 20.4% 2.7    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 9.7 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.1% 48.9% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.7% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.9 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-3 6.0% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 2.4 1.1 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 9.7% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 3.0 0.7 2.3 3.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.2% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 3.7 0.2 1.2 4.2 4.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.9% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 4.5 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.8 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.5% 99.8% 10.0% 89.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 4.3 4.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.8%
10-8 13.2% 99.7% 6.7% 93.0% 6.3 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.0 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6%
9-9 10.6% 97.9% 4.4% 93.5% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.2 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 97.8%
8-10 6.4% 85.8% 2.8% 83.0% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.9 85.4%
7-11 3.9% 58.1% 1.3% 56.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.6 57.6%
6-12 2.2% 19.8% 1.2% 18.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.7 18.8%
5-13 1.0% 2.4% 0.7% 1.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.7%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 93.9% 13.7% 80.2% 5.1 3.6 8.0 14.2 15.9 14.8 12.9 10.0 6.0 3.5 2.7 2.2 0.1 6.1 93.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.6 17.4