UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.1 #117
Expected Predictive Rating +6.5 #83
Pace 64.4 #297
Improvement -1.1 #242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #112 D+ B B- B D+
Defense #139 C+ C+ D- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.08 #269 -3.4 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #107 0.70 #266 +0.6 #147
Three Pointers 41% #182 1.00 #215 -0.3 #193
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #271 -3.2 #271
Freethrows 0.36 #36 71% #230 0.26 #61
Second Chance 35.2% #57 1.07 #107 0.38 #55
Turnovers 15.2% #76
Total Offense +2.2 #112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.25 #302 +3.1 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #75 0.84 #311 -2.3 #334
Three Pointers 45% #57 0.88 #32 +0.8 #148
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #126 +1.6 #127
Freethrows 0.24 #26 74% #258 0.18 #34
Second Chance 26.5% #55 1.08 #262 0.29 #111
Turnovers 13.6% #338
Total Defense +0.9 #139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #275 -2.0% #37
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #261 -1.1% #165
Possession Length 18.7 #321 17.3 #197
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #322 0.18 #191
Improvement -1.1 #246 +0.0 #192

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 29.7% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 79.5% 84.8% 66.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.1% 29.7% 24.1%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 70.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 39 - 49 - 5
Quad 415 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 146 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 47% -8  0 - 1 -5 +3 F A- A+ -8 F B- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 299 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 90% +8  1 - 1 +2 +8 C- A+ C- -4 B D C-
 Tue, Nov 18 248 East Carolina W 85 - 60 85% +12  2 - 1 +17 +14 A+ C C +4 B B+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 234 @Radford W 81 - 73 66% +8  3 - 1 +7 +6 B B D +1 D+ B B-
 Wed, Nov 26 280 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 88% -1  4 - 1 +3 +4 D- D+ A- +1 B- B F
 Fri, Nov 28 180 Navy W 87 - 57 76% +21  5 - 1 +26 +21 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  6 - 1 +5 +6 B- D+ A -1 D+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 153 Marshall W 70 - 69 72% +1  7 - 1 -2 +4 F B- A+ -6 B F+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 302 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 79% +3  8 - 1 +2 +4 D C C -1 C C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 160 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 51% -2  9 - 1 +6 +11 D- A+ A- -5 A- F F
 Sat, Dec 20 250 Howard L 66 - 67 85% -4  9 - 2 -9 -4 F A- C -5 C C C
 Mon, Dec 29 282 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 75% -1  10 - 2 1 - 0 +5 +6 C C- D -1 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 204 Drexel W 65 - 53 80% +8  11 - 2 2 - 0 +6 +3 F+ B+ A+ +5 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 252 Hampton W 49 - 45 85% +4  12 - 2 3 - 0 -4 -17 F D+ C- +14 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 256 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 70% +1  13 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +7 F B- C -0 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 217 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 63% -8  14 - 2 5 - 0 +4 +7 C+ A- C -3 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 213 Campbell W 78 - 75 81% -4  15 - 2 6 - 0 -3 +3 C- F A+ -6 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 150 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 48% -11  15 - 3 6 - 1 -3 -4 F C C +1 B- B- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 252 @Hampton W 75 - 67 70% +3  16 - 3 7 - 1 +6 +16 C A+ A- -9 D F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 154 @Towson W 82 - 73 51% +3  17 - 3 8 - 1 +12 +20 A- B- A+ -7 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 150 William & Mary W 81 - 76 71%
 Mon, Feb 9 152 @College of Charleston L 73 - 74 49%
 Thu, Feb 12 193 Elon W 79 - 71 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 126 Hofstra W 73 - 69 65%
 Thu, Feb 19 207 Monmouth W 73 - 64 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 213 @Campbell W 79 - 76 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 282 N.C. A&T W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 152 College of Charleston W 76 - 70 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 193 @Elon W 76 - 74 59%
Totals 23 - 6 14 - 4 +3 +2 D+ B B- +1 C+ C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 10.5 21.2 24.8 16.1 4.9 79.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.6 7.0 2.8 0.1 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 8.8 17.5 24.0 24.9 16.1 4.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.9    4.9
16-2 100.0% 16.1    16.1
15-3 99.7% 24.8    23.3 1.5
14-4 88.4% 21.2    16.5 4.7 0.0
13-5 60.1% 10.5    4.7 5.1 0.7 0.1
12-6 22.7% 2.0    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 79.5% 79.5 65.6 12.3 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.9% 43.1% 43.1% 12.0 0.4 1.4 0.3 2.8
16-2 16.1% 34.6% 34.6% 12.5 0.1 2.7 2.6 0.3 10.5
15-3 24.9% 30.9% 30.9% 12.9 0.0 2.1 4.6 1.0 0.0 17.2
14-4 24.0% 27.1% 27.1% 13.1 0.9 4.1 1.4 0.0 17.5
13-5 17.5% 22.9% 22.9% 13.3 0.3 2.4 1.3 0.1 13.5
12-6 8.8% 19.2% 19.2% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 7.1
11-7 3.0% 15.2% 15.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.6
10-8 0.8% 5.3% 5.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.1% 28.1% 0.0% 12.9 71.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.0 18.6 65.7 15.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%