UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#108
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#78
Pace62.4#344
Improvement-0.6#220

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#92
First Shot-0.4#183
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#13
Layup/Dunks-1.2#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#248
Freethrows+1.8#87
Improvement+0.5#126

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#162
First Shot+0.3#159
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#210
Layups/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#305
Freethrows+2.7#40
Improvement-1.1#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 24.6% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 94.9% 90.8%
Conference Champion 33.3% 34.4% 24.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.9% 24.6% 18.6%
Second Round2.9% 2.9% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 47 - 6
Quad 417 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 132 @Kent St. L 77-86 46%     0 - 1 -4.3 +2.2 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 15 258 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 87%     1 - 1 +4.5 +7.2 -0.9
  Tue, Nov 18 255 East Carolina W 85-60 87%     2 - 1 +16.7 +14.3 +3.5
  Fri, Nov 21 253 @Radford W 81-73 72%     3 - 1 +5.7 +6.4 -0.7
  Wed, Nov 26 272 SE Louisiana W 70-57 88%     4 - 1 +4.0 +3.7 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 28 207 Navy W 87-57 82%     5 - 1 +24.0 +19.3 +6.9
  Sat, Nov 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 97%     6 - 1 +7.4 +7.3 +0.4
  Wed, Dec 3 158 Marshall W 70-69 74%     7 - 1 -1.9 +3.8 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 327 @Louisiana W 70-63 84%     8 - 1 +0.2 +3.7 -2.8
  Sat, Dec 13 211 @Valparaiso W 73-70 65%     9 - 1 +2.7 +9.2 -6.1
  Sat, Dec 20 283 Howard W 77-64 89%    
  Mon, Dec 29 304 @N.C. A&T W 76-68 78%    
  Wed, Dec 31 287 Drexel W 74-61 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 227 Hampton W 74-63 84%    
  Thu, Jan 8 212 @Northeastern W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 239 @Stony Brook W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 229 Campbell W 80-69 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 120 @William & Mary L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 227 @Hampton W 71-66 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 137 @Towson L 66-67 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 120 William & Mary W 80-76 63%    
  Mon, Feb 9 185 @College of Charleston W 72-70 59%    
  Thu, Feb 12 180 Elon W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 115 Hofstra W 71-68 62%    
  Thu, Feb 19 237 Monmouth W 77-66 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 229 @Campbell W 77-72 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 304 N.C. A&T W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 185 College of Charleston W 75-67 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 180 @Elon W 76-74 58%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 8.0 9.8 6.8 3.3 0.8 33.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.4 8.1 6.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 6.6 3.6 0.8 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.3 8.2 11.9 14.5 16.1 15.4 12.1 7.1 3.3 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.6% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-2 95.8% 6.8    5.9 0.9 0.0
15-3 81.2% 9.8    6.9 2.7 0.2
14-4 51.8% 8.0    3.9 3.3 0.7 0.0
13-5 24.7% 4.0    1.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.3% 33.3 21.9 8.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 52.8% 50.2% 2.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 5.1%
17-1 3.3% 45.4% 45.2% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.8 0.4%
16-2 7.1% 38.8% 38.8% 12.1 0.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 4.3
15-3 12.1% 35.1% 35.1% 12.4 0.2 2.3 1.6 0.1 7.9
14-4 15.4% 30.4% 30.4% 12.7 0.0 1.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.7
13-5 16.1% 26.0% 26.0% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 11.9
12-6 14.5% 19.7% 19.7% 13.2 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 11.6
11-7 11.9% 15.8% 15.8% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 10.0
10-8 8.2% 10.5% 10.5% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 7.3
9-9 5.3% 7.8% 7.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.9
8-10 3.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
7-11 1.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 23.9% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.4 9.8 3.8 0.5 0.1 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.3 2.6 7.0 0.9 7.0 19.1 55.7 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 9.3% 11.0 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 4.1% 12.0 4.1