Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#23
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#16
Pace69.6#184
Improvement+2.6#20

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#12
First Shot+8.9#11
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#96
Layup/Dunks+2.1#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#117
Freethrows+3.8#22
Improvement+2.4#21

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#58
First Shot+5.3#40
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#241
Layups/Dunks+3.8#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
Freethrows+2.8#42
Improvement+0.3#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.8% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 8.4% 10.4% 4.3%
Top 4 Seed 30.4% 35.4% 20.4%
Top 6 Seed 53.2% 59.7% 40.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.4% 86.3% 71.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.0% 85.1% 70.0%
Average Seed 5.7 5.5 6.4
.500 or above 88.8% 93.2% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.4% 74.1% 63.1%
Conference Champion 7.9% 9.1% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.1% 2.1%
First Four6.7% 5.9% 8.3%
First Round78.4% 83.7% 67.8%
Second Round58.3% 63.9% 47.1%
Sweet Sixteen28.8% 32.4% 21.5%
Elite Eight11.3% 12.9% 8.1%
Final Four4.3% 5.0% 3.0%
Championship Game1.6% 1.9% 0.9%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 212 - 13
Quad 33 - 015 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 217 Bethune-Cookman W 95-90 OT 97%     1 - 0 -1.5 +7.0 -9.1
  Thu, Nov 6 255 Merrimack W 95-57 97%     2 - 0 +29.9 +22.3 +9.0
  Tue, Nov 11 225 Wofford W 93-62 97%     3 - 0 +24.2 +13.8 +9.9
  Sun, Nov 16 5 Houston L 72-73 32%     3 - 1 +18.7 +13.6 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 19 326 Jackson St. W 112-66 99%     4 - 1 +33.8 +25.4 +4.9
  Mon, Nov 24 80 Oregon W 84-73 77%     5 - 1 +18.2 +14.9 +3.3
  Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72-102 16%     5 - 2 -4.3 +12.3 -16.1
  Wed, Nov 26 15 St. John's W 85-74 39%     6 - 2 +28.7 +23.1 +6.2
  Wed, Dec 3 29 North Carolina St. W 85-81 67%    
  Sat, Dec 6 11 @Arizona L 76-83 26%    
  Sat, Dec 13 188 Chattanooga W 85-68 94%    
  Sat, Dec 20 3 Purdue L 73-80 25%    
  Mon, Dec 29 210 Queens W 91-70 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 34 @Georgia L 84-85 46%    
  Tue, Jan 6 60 Texas A&M W 86-77 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 25 Arkansas W 81-77 64%    
  Wed, Jan 14 33 @Missouri L 80-81 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 88 South Carolina W 81-69 85%    
  Tue, Jan 20 49 @Mississippi W 77-75 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 17 @Florida L 78-83 32%    
  Wed, Jan 28 36 Texas W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 14 @Tennessee L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Feb 7 10 Alabama L 87-88 47%    
  Tue, Feb 10 19 Vanderbilt W 83-81 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 25 @Arkansas L 78-80 43%    
  Wed, Feb 18 84 @Mississippi St. W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 16 Kentucky W 81-80 51%    
  Tue, Feb 24 52 @Oklahoma W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 49 Mississippi W 80-72 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 40 LSU W 83-77 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 10 @Alabama L 84-91 27%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 3.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.7 4.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 3.0 4.8 1.2 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.1 2.4 0.2 8.7 6th
7th 0.3 3.7 4.1 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.4 1.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.4 3.6 2.6 0.2 6.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.4 0.1 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.3 4.6 12th
13th 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 5.3 8.3 10.7 12.6 14.5 13.4 11.4 8.6 5.5 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 97.4% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 81.7% 2.4    1.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 46.2% 2.6    1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1
13-5 15.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 38.4% 61.6% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 1.8 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 2.2 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.5% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.7 0.6 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.6% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.4 0.3 1.4 3.1 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 11.4% 99.9% 12.3% 87.6% 4.2 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.5 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-7 13.4% 99.8% 7.2% 92.6% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 4.1 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.8%
10-8 14.5% 99.1% 3.6% 95.5% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.8 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.1%
9-9 12.6% 94.4% 2.6% 91.8% 7.7 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.7 94.2%
8-10 10.7% 73.7% 1.1% 72.6% 9.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.6 0.2 2.8 73.4%
7-11 8.3% 38.8% 1.0% 37.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.1 38.1%
6-12 5.3% 12.6% 0.5% 12.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 12.2%
5-13 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0%
4-14 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 10.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.4% 7.1% 74.3% 5.7 2.3 6.1 10.3 11.7 12.4 10.5 7.8 5.0 4.8 4.3 5.6 0.6 0.0 18.6 80.0%