Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.1 #27
Expected Predictive Rating +14.9 #35
Pace 69.6 #168
Improvement +2.2 #73

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #8 A A A- A+ C+
Defense #73 C+ C B B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #154 1.30 #52 +3.2 #76
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #237 0.88 #43 +0.0 #180
Three Pointers 43% #143 1.15 #26 +4.2 #51
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #20 +7.4 #20
Freethrows 22.2 #10 76% #81 16.8 #9
Second Chance 39.4% #11 1.08 #136 0.43 #29
Turnovers 13.7% #31
Total Offense +11.2 #8

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.06 #70 +2.7 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #120 0.87 #325 -1.9 #315
Three Pointers 41% #188 0.96 #113 +1.0 #143
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #118 +1.8 #118
Freethrows 13.6 #30 73% #209 10.0 #333
Second Chance 30.1% #159 1.09 #250 0.33 #200
Turnovers 18.9% #62
Total Defense +3.9 #73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #128 -0.6% #116
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.5% #20 -2.9% #130
Possession Length 16.1 #71 18.3 #323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #29 0.15 #100
Improvement +1.1 #113 +1.0 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 11.7% 15.9% 6.0%
Top 6 Seed 36.6% 45.9% 24.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.6% 86.3% 68.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.6% 85.5% 67.0%
Average Seed 7.0 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 90.1% 95.1% 83.3%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 73.6% 48.0%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.9% 4.5%
First Four8.3% 6.5% 10.8%
First Round75.2% 83.5% 63.9%
Second Round50.3% 58.5% 39.2%
Sweet Sixteen19.8% 24.3% 13.8%
Elite Eight7.2% 8.8% 5.1%
Final Four2.7% 3.4% 1.9%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 12
Quad 25 - 212 - 14
Quad 31 - 013 - 14
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 272 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 98% +1  1 - 0 -4 +6 D B+ B+ -11 F B- C+
 Thu, Nov 6 241 Merrimack W 95 - 57 97% +18  2 - 0 +30 +23 B- A+ A+ +9 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 228 Wofford W 93 - 62 97% +19  3 - 0 +24 +13 B+ A+ C +11 B A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 5 Houston L 72 - 73 28% -3  3 - 1 +20 +14 C+ B+ A+ +6 C+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 19 333 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99% +26  4 - 1 +32 +25 A+ D+ A+ +4 C- D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 72 Oregon W 84 - 73 76% +3  5 - 1 +19 +15 C+ A+ A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 17% -21  5 - 2 -5 +12 B+ C+ A+ -16 A F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 15 St. John's W 85 - 74 41% +2  6 - 2 +28 +25 A+ A+ A +4 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 24 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 59% +5  7 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C+ F +8 A A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 2 @Arizona L 68 - 97 13% -15  7 - 3 -2 +5 F A- D -5 F C B
 Sat, Dec 13 267 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 96% +7  8 - 3 +8 +15 A+ A+ F -7 D+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 3 Purdue L 60 - 88 26% -13  8 - 4 -6 -1 C F B- -8 D F A
 Mon, Dec 29 202 Queens W 106 - 65 96% +30  9 - 4 +36 +20 A+ B C +13 A+ C A-
 Sat, Jan 3 23 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 36% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +15 +21 A+ B A -5 F A- C
 Tue, Jan 6 40 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 69% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +8 +16 C A+ A- -8 F F A
 Sat, Jan 10 26 Arkansas W 95 - 73 61% +15  10 - 6 1 - 2 +34 +23 A+ A+ A +11 A A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 53 @Missouri W 81 - 79 58%
 Sat, Jan 17 69 South Carolina W 80 - 70 83%
 Tue, Jan 20 65 @Mississippi W 78 - 74 63%
 Sat, Jan 24 12 @Florida L 76 - 84 23%
 Wed, Jan 28 41 Texas W 85 - 79 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 20 @Tennessee L 74 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 14 Alabama W 90 - 89 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 9 Vanderbilt L 81 - 83 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 26 @Arkansas L 84 - 87 38%
 Wed, Feb 18 66 @Mississippi St. W 81 - 77 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 25 Kentucky W 80 - 77 59%
 Tue, Feb 24 54 @Oklahoma W 81 - 79 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 65 Mississippi W 81 - 71 81%
 Tue, Mar 3 44 LSU W 83 - 77 72%
 Sat, Mar 7 14 @Alabama L 87 - 93 30%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 9 +15 +11 A A A- +4 C+ C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.3 1st
2nd 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 3.7 1.3 0.1 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.7 0.2 8.9 4th
5th 0.3 4.1 4.5 0.6 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 6.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.6 5.7 4.0 0.2 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 6.0 1.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.8 5.4 2.6 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.9 4.1 0.5 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.2 1.5 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.2 2.1 2.4 0.2 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.5 11.2 14.8 17.2 16.7 13.6 9.0 4.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 52.9% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.7% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 3.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.2% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 4.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.0% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 4.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.6% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 5.6 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 4.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 16.7% 99.1% 4.2% 94.9% 6.6 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.7 5.2 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 99.1%
9-9 17.2% 96.3% 2.9% 93.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 4.3 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.6 96.2%
8-10 14.8% 80.6% 1.6% 79.0% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.0 4.0 0.0 2.9 80.3%
7-11 11.2% 37.9% 0.7% 37.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 6.9 37.4%
6-12 6.5% 6.7% 1.0% 5.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.0 5.8%
5-13 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 78.6% 4.6% 74.0% 7.0 21.4 77.6%