Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +25.5 #1
Expected Predictive Rating +24.3 #11
Pace 81.6 #7
Improvement -3.5 #331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #4 A+ A+ A A- A+
Defense #1 A+ A- B- A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #19 1.39 #10 +10.1 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #350 0.86 #57 -3.6 #338
Three Pointers 44% #128 1.09 #82 +3.1 #79
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #4 +9.6 #4
Freethrows 21.3 #19 74% #154 15.7 #26
Second Chance 35.2% #63 1.47 #1 0.52 #1
Turnovers 13.2% #20
Total Offense +11.9 #4

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #362 0.75 #1 +13.4 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #6 0.61 #21 -1.9 #310
Three Pointers 44% #89 0.82 #10 +2.5 #92
1st FG Attempt 0.74 #1 +14.0 #1
Freethrows 13.0 #22 68% #24 8.8 #354
Second Chance 22.9% #8 1.05 #202 0.24 #30
Turnovers 18.2% #82
Total Defense +13.6 #1

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.1% #8 -4.9% #2
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.2% #16 -23.8% #1
Possession Length 13.2 #1 18.6 #339
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #7 0.05 #1
Improvement -0.7 #226 -2.8 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 22.9% 24.5% 13.5%
#1 Seed 64.5% 67.1% 48.7%
Top 2 Seed 91.5% 93.0% 82.5%
Top 4 Seed 99.6% 99.8% 98.7%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.5 1.4 1.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 43.7% 47.1% 23.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.5% 99.5% 99.1%
Sweet Sixteen85.6% 86.1% 82.8%
Elite Eight65.5% 66.2% 61.6%
Final Four47.0% 47.8% 42.1%
Championship Game32.4% 33.1% 28.6%
National Champion21.7% 22.3% 18.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 114 - 4
Quad 29 - 123 - 5
Quad 35 - 028 - 5
Quad 41 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 135 Oakland W 121 - 78 99% +27  1 - 0 +41 +30 A+ A+ A+ +7 B- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 57 Wake Forest W 85 - 84 OT 92% +2  2 - 0 +10 +1 D+ A+ B +9 A+ D+ C-
 Fri, Nov 14 45 @TCU W 67 - 63 84% -2  3 - 0 +19 +3 D+ A+ F +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 120 Middle Tennessee W 86 - 61 98% +13  4 - 0 +25 +5 C A+ C- +17 A+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 52 San Diego St. W 94 - 54 91% +18  5 - 0 +50 +21 A+ A+ A+ +27 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 27 Auburn W 102 - 72 83% +21  6 - 0 +45 +32 B+ A+ A+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 10 Gonzaga W 101 - 61 70% +25  7 - 0 +60 +23 A+ B+ A- +31 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 124 Rutgers W 101 - 60 98% +22  8 - 0 1 - 0 +40 +24 A+ A+ B +14 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 34 Villanova W 89 - 61 90% +23  9 - 0 +39 +11 C+ A+ A+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 112 @Maryland W 101 - 83 95% +3  10 - 0 2 - 0 +25 +33 A+ C+ A+ -8 F F C
 Sun, Dec 21 208 La Salle W 102 - 50 99% +24  11 - 0 +46 +20 A+ F A+ +23 A+ B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 80 McNeese St. W 112 - 71 96% +30  12 - 0 +45 +23 A+ A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 47 USC W 96 - 66 94% +16  13 - 0 3 - 0 +38 +11 B A- A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 99 @Penn St. W 74 - 72 94% +5  14 - 0 4 - 0 +10 +2 D+ D- B+ +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 39 Wisconsin L 88 - 91 92% +2  14 - 1 4 - 1 +7 +17 A+ B A+ -9 D+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 46 @Washington W 86 - 75 85%
 Sun, Jan 18 72 @Oregon W 87 - 72 92%
 Tue, Jan 20 31 Indiana W 88 - 74 91%
 Fri, Jan 23 36 Ohio St. W 88 - 73 92%
 Tue, Jan 27 16 Nebraska W 85 - 74 85%
 Fri, Jan 30 13 @Michigan St. W 76 - 72 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 99 Penn St. W 93 - 70 99%
 Sun, Feb 8 36 @Ohio St. W 85 - 76 79%
 Wed, Feb 11 63 @Northwestern W 86 - 72 90%
 Sat, Feb 14 38 UCLA W 85 - 70 92%
 Tue, Feb 17 3 @Purdue W 80 - 79 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 7 Duke W 83 - 78 67%
 Tue, Feb 24 76 Minnesota W 84 - 63 97%
 Fri, Feb 27 8 @Illinois W 82 - 80 57%
 Thu, Mar 5 22 @Iowa W 79 - 72 72%
 Sun, Mar 8 13 Michigan St. W 79 - 69 81%
Totals 27 - 4 16 - 4 +25 +12 A+ A+ A +14 A+ A- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 5.5 15.0 16.3 6.3 43.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.1 11.1 8.2 1.5 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.9 5.3 0.7 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.4 0.5 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.8 8.5 15.5 22.4 23.9 17.8 6.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 6.3    6.0 0.3
18-2 91.4% 16.3    12.5 3.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 62.8% 15.0    6.8 6.5 1.7 0.1
16-4 24.7% 5.5    1.1 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.1
15-5 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 43.7% 43.7 26.4 12.7 3.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 6.3% 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 1.1 5.9 0.4 100.0%
18-2 17.8% 100.0% 54.3% 45.7% 1.1 15.7 2.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 23.9% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.2 18.8 5.0 0.2 100.0%
16-4 22.4% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.4 14.2 7.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.5% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.7 7.1 6.6 1.7 0.1 100.0%
14-6 8.5% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.1 2.2 3.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 3.8% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.6 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
12-8 1.4% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 3.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.4% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.5 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 91.1 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 87.6 12.4