George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#159
Pace68.2#214
Improvement-4.2#355

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#105
First Shot+3.9#70
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#269
Layup/Dunks-1.3#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#34
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement-0.4#234

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#136
First Shot-0.5#189
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#83
Layups/Dunks+2.3#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#301
Freethrows+0.4#166
Improvement-3.7#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 4.8% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.8
.500 or above 73.8% 77.9% 55.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.3% 67.4% 56.0%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.3% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.4% 3.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round4.3% 4.6% 2.9%
Second Round1.0% 1.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 53 - 7
Quad 36 - 69 - 13
Quad 49 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 219   Stony Brook W 74-52 80%     1 - 0 +16.5 -2.2 +18.7
  Nov 12, 2021 192   Penn W 87-66 77%     2 - 0 +16.6 +5.9 +9.4
  Nov 14, 2021 315   Morgan St. W 90-53 91%     3 - 0 +25.2 +8.1 +15.6
  Nov 17, 2021 51   @ Maryland W 71-66 21%     4 - 0 +16.7 +13.2 +4.1
  Nov 19, 2021 164   @ James Madison L 64-67 51%     4 - 1 +0.2 -8.7 +9.0
  Nov 22, 2021 144   Washington L 74-77 57%     4 - 2 -1.4 +6.1 -7.6
  Nov 23, 2021 92   Nevada L 69-88 40%     4 - 3 -13.1 -5.9 -6.3
  Nov 24, 2021 59   South Dakota St. L 76-80 34%     4 - 4 +3.7 +6.8 -3.3
  Dec 04, 2021 234   Old Dominion W 70-60 82%    
  Dec 07, 2021 102   Navy W 68-66 56%    
  Dec 18, 2021 159   @ Georgia L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 21, 2021 321   American W 79-64 93%    
  Dec 23, 2021 303   Coppin St. W 80-66 91%    
  Dec 30, 2021 81   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-66 29%    
  Jan 02, 2022 194   @ Duquesne W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 05, 2022 73   Rhode Island L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 08, 2022 221   Saint Joseph's W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 11, 2022 80   @ Richmond L 71-77 28%    
  Jan 17, 2022 266   @ George Washington W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 22, 2022 111   Dayton W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 26, 2022 40   St. Bonaventure L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 30, 2022 117   @ Massachusetts L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 02, 2022 62   Saint Louis L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 243   @ La Salle W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 09, 2022 80   Richmond L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 81   Virginia Commonwealth L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 16, 2022 221   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 20, 2022 248   @ Fordham W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 27, 2022 266   George Washington W 75-63 86%    
  Mar 02, 2022 84   @ Davidson L 66-72 30%    
  Mar 05, 2022 117   Massachusetts W 81-78 61%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.8 2.9 0.7 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.5 3.9 4.9 1.2 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.1 2.1 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.2 3.1 0.3 10.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.7 4.0 0.5 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.9 0.8 9.2 9th
10th 0.4 2.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 7.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.0 0.1 5.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.7 6.4 9.5 12.0 13.5 14.4 12.4 10.3 7.0 4.2 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 97.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2
15-3 65.3% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.3% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.2% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 81.0% 28.6% 52.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.3%
16-2 0.8% 41.7% 26.2% 15.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 21.0%
15-3 2.4% 23.0% 13.8% 9.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.8 10.7%
14-4 4.2% 14.8% 12.9% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.2%
13-5 7.0% 11.4% 11.2% 0.3% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 6.2 0.3%
12-6 10.3% 6.2% 6.2% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.7
11-7 12.4% 3.1% 3.1% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.0
10-8 14.4% 2.9% 2.9% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.0
9-9 13.5% 1.4% 1.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.3
8-10 12.0% 1.5% 1.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9
7-11 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.1 9.4
6-12 6.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.3
5-13 3.7% 3.7
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.4% 3.9% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 95.6 0.6%