George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#77
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#54
Pace63.3#330
Improvement-1.1#265

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#96
First Shot+5.3#55
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#307
Layup/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#98
Freethrows+3.7#16
Improvement-0.5#228

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#67
First Shot+2.1#101
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#43
Layups/Dunks+2.6#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement-0.6#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 13.0% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 3.6% 0.5%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 11.4
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 86.7% 76.5%
Conference Champion 11.6% 11.7% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Four2.2% 2.3% 0.5%
First Round11.8% 11.9% 6.5%
Second Round3.6% 3.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 39 - 213 - 8
Quad 411 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 220 Wofford W 70-46 90%     1 - 0 +17.4 -1.2 +20.4
  Fri, Nov 7 124 Winthrop W 96-90 78%     2 - 0 +5.3 +10.6 -5.8
  Sat, Nov 15 337 New Hampshire W 61-44 97%     3 - 0 +3.1 -12.0 +16.2
  Tue, Nov 18 312 Jacksonville W 79-57 95%     4 - 0 +10.2 +6.6 +5.2
  Mon, Nov 24 175 Ohio W 92-69 79%     5 - 0 +21.9 +20.6 +2.2
  Tue, Nov 25 117 Florida Atlantic W 74-65 66%     6 - 0 +12.3 +14.0 -0.1
  Sat, Nov 29 193 James Madison W 82-66 88%     7 - 0 +10.9 +8.6 +3.1
  Tue, Dec 2 162 Cornell W 99-81 84%     8 - 0 +14.8 +16.9 -2.7
  Sat, Dec 6 65 @Virginia Tech L 62-73 34%     8 - 1 +0.7 -0.4 +0.2
  Sat, Dec 13 207 Old Dominion W 73-61 89%     9 - 1 +6.0 -4.3 +10.1
  Sun, Dec 21 338 Loyola Maryland W 82-60 98%    
  Sun, Dec 28 254 Penn W 81-65 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 233 @La Salle W 71-62 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 116 Rhode Island W 72-65 75%    
  Wed, Jan 7 198 @Fordham W 69-62 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 48 Virginia Commonwealth L 70-71 48%    
  Tue, Jan 13 290 @Loyola Chicago W 76-64 85%    
  Mon, Jan 19 80 George Washington W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 116 @Rhode Island W 69-68 54%    
  Wed, Jan 28 133 Davidson W 72-63 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 112 @St. Bonaventure W 69-68 53%    
  Wed, Feb 4 136 Duquesne W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 171 Saint Joseph's W 74-63 85%    
  Tue, Feb 10 104 @Richmond W 71-70 51%    
  Fri, Feb 13 80 @George Washington L 73-76 41%    
  Wed, Feb 18 61 Dayton W 71-69 56%    
  Wed, Feb 25 171 @Saint Joseph's W 71-66 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 112 St. Bonaventure W 72-65 74%    
  Tue, Mar 3 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 68-74 28%    
  Sat, Mar 7 33 Saint Louis L 73-76 41%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.9 2.8 1.1 0.2 11.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.2 5.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.8 6.1 1.6 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.3 6.0 1.5 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.9 1.6 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.1 2.1 0.2 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.3 9.5 12.6 14.9 15.1 13.6 10.2 6.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.1% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 88.8% 2.8    2.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 64.3% 3.9    2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 27.1% 2.8    0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 6.0 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 93.1% 39.7% 53.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.6%
17-1 1.1% 73.6% 33.2% 40.4% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 60.4%
16-2 3.1% 52.4% 27.0% 25.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.0 1.5 34.7%
15-3 6.1% 35.8% 22.3% 13.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.1 3.9 17.4%
14-4 10.2% 25.8% 19.8% 6.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 0.2 7.6 7.5%
13-5 13.6% 14.3% 12.2% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 2.3%
12-6 15.1% 10.6% 10.1% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 13.5 0.6%
11-7 14.9% 6.1% 6.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 14.0 0.1%
10-8 12.6% 4.1% 4.1% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.1
9-9 9.5% 3.1% 3.1% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.2
8-10 6.3% 1.5% 1.5% 12.1 0.1 0.0 6.2
7-11 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.9% 9.7% 3.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 7.5 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 87.1 3.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 4.3 30.4 34.8 26.1 4.3