Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.5 #35
Expected Predictive Rating +13.5 #38
Pace 77.1 #31
Improvement -0.5 #202

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #28 A+ C C+ C+ A+
Defense #54 B+ C- A- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #38 1.33 #36 +7.8 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% #365 0.72 #215 -5.5 #363
Three Pointers 49% #44 1.21 #14 +8.7 #10
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #3 +11.0 #3
Freethrows 16.1 #249 77% #54 12.5 #190
Second Chance 36.0% #48 0.97 #260 0.35 #118
Turnovers 15.8% #125
Total Offense +8.3 #28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 0.97 #17 +5.8 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #99 0.72 #148 -0.7 #236
Three Pointers 43% #127 0.96 #125 +0.2 #181
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #40 +5.3 #40
Freethrows 18.8 #258 71% #122 13.3 #237
Second Chance 24.1% #17 0.98 #113 0.24 #27
Turnovers 16.0% #221
Total Defense +5.2 #54

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.8% #2 -1.3% #73
Shot Type Make % Effect 16.0% #15 -9.3% #40
Possession Length 14.3 #6 17.9 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #7 0.18 #214
Improvement +2.6 #33 -3.0 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 4.8% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.7% 12.4% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.9% 71.1% 52.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.5% 48.2% 26.2%
Average Seed 9.4 8.7 10.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 54.3% 72.7% 38.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.5% 9.8% 11.0%
First Round56.3% 66.8% 47.2%
Second Round28.1% 36.7% 20.6%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 11.7% 5.6%
Elite Eight2.9% 4.1% 1.8%
Final Four0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 26 - 37 - 4
Quad 38 - 116 - 5
Quad 412 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 216 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 96%     10.0   1 - 0 +18.7 +8.9 +7.5
  Thu, Nov 6 337 Chicago St. W 108-86 99%     13.0   2 - 0 +7.7 +7.5 -3.8
  Mon, Nov 10 230 Lindenwood W 109-66 96%     21.5   3 - 0 +36.0 +18.9 +11.2
  Sat, Nov 15 100 Grand Canyon W 78-64 85%     10.9   4 - 0 +16.3 +3.7 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 21 246 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 97%     19.2   5 - 0 +23.0 +13.3 +9.5
  Thu, Nov 27 68 Santa Clara W 71-70 69%     -2.8   6 - 0 +9.4 +0.0 +9.4
  Fri, Nov 28 81 Stanford L 77-78 73%     5.6   6 - 1 +6.3 +6.1 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 121 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 77%     11.9   7 - 1 +26.7 +14.5 +10.3
  Sun, Dec 7 330 Central Michigan W 107-65 99%     22.8   8 - 1 +28.6 +28.8 +0.3
  Sat, Dec 13 95 San Francisco W 85-75 85%     1.5   9 - 1 +12.6 +13.3 -0.8
  Wed, Dec 17 282 Bethune-Cookman W 112-53 97%     31.3   10 - 1 +49.3 +22.6 +21.0
  Sun, Dec 21 341 New Hampshire W 93-79 99%     2.6   11 - 1 -0.6 +10.7 -12.1
  Wed, Dec 31 199 Saint Joseph's W 102-79 95%     12.0   12 - 1 1 - 0 +17.6 +35.9 -16.6
  Wed, Jan 7 45 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83-84 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 232 @La Salle W 83-68 92%    
  Wed, Jan 14 184 Fordham W 82-64 95%    
  Sat, Jan 17 123 Richmond W 87-73 90%    
  Tue, Jan 20 122 @Duquesne W 89-81 77%    
  Fri, Jan 23 114 @St. Bonaventure W 82-75 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 66 George Washington W 90-82 77%    
  Fri, Jan 30 77 Dayton W 82-73 80%    
  Tue, Feb 3 139 @Davidson W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 232 La Salle W 86-65 97%    
  Fri, Feb 13 234 @Loyola Chicago W 86-71 91%    
  Tue, Feb 17 129 @Rhode Island W 81-72 79%    
  Fri, Feb 20 45 Virginia Commonwealth W 86-81 67%    
  Tue, Feb 24 77 @Dayton W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 122 Duquesne W 92-78 90%    
  Wed, Mar 4 234 Loyola Chicago W 89-68 97%    
  Sat, Mar 7 93 @George Mason W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 26 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.9 14.0 17.6 11.9 4.0 54.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 5.3 9.6 6.3 1.4 0.0 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.0 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 7.2 12.8 18.2 20.7 19.0 11.9 4.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
17-1 99.9% 11.9    11.4 0.5
16-2 92.5% 17.6    14.1 3.4 0.1
15-3 67.6% 14.0    7.9 5.3 0.8 0.0
14-4 32.7% 5.9    1.6 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.5% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.3% 54.3 39.0 12.3 2.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.0% 95.9% 56.6% 39.4% 5.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 90.7%
17-1 11.9% 90.6% 53.1% 37.5% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.5 1.1 79.9%
16-2 19.0% 79.8% 48.3% 31.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 4.6 3.3 0.0 3.8 61.0%
15-3 20.7% 65.7% 42.0% 23.7% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.8 6.2 0.1 7.1 40.8%
14-4 18.2% 51.7% 35.4% 16.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.2 0.2 8.8 25.3%
13-5 12.8% 39.3% 29.3% 10.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.9 0.3 7.8 14.2%
12-6 7.2% 27.7% 23.4% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.2 5.2 5.6%
11-7 3.6% 20.8% 18.8% 1.9% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 2.9 2.4%
10-8 1.7% 11.7% 11.4% 0.3% 11.3 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.3%
9-9 0.7% 14.7% 14.0% 0.7% 11.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9%
8-10 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 60.9% 39.3% 21.6% 9.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.6 4.7 8.1 14.0 22.4 1.3 0.0 39.2 35.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 3.8 5.1 13.0 19.7 35.3 17.0 8.3 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 93.8% 6.5 1.2 9.9 13.6 24.7 17.9 17.3 6.2 2.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 89.8% 7.1 2.5 11.0 21.2 21.2 16.9 11.9 4.2 0.8