Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#37
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#44
Pace78.3#19
Improvement-0.4#200

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#44
First Shot+7.6#21
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#220
Layup/Dunks+6.0#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#38
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement+1.1#99

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#36
First Shot+2.6#96
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#7
Layups/Dunks+7.0#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
Freethrows-1.1#262
Improvement-1.5#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 5.6% 5.8% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.9% 59.6% 44.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.7% 34.4% 19.2%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.6% 97.4%
Conference Champion 56.5% 57.6% 32.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.8% 9.9% 8.2%
First Round54.6% 55.3% 40.2%
Second Round27.2% 27.7% 17.3%
Sweet Sixteen7.9% 8.1% 4.9%
Elite Eight2.8% 2.8% 1.5%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 26 - 37 - 4
Quad 38 - 115 - 5
Quad 412 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 215 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 96%     1 - 0 +18.5 +7.6 +8.6
  Thu, Nov 6 336 Chicago St. W 108-86 99%     2 - 0 +8.3 +8.5 -4.2
  Mon, Nov 10 229 Lindenwood W 109-66 96%     3 - 0 +35.9 +19.4 +10.6
  Sat, Nov 15 87 Grand Canyon W 78-64 82%     4 - 0 +17.6 +3.9 +12.8
  Fri, Nov 21 199 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 95%     5 - 0 +25.6 +13.6 +11.9
  Thu, Nov 27 86 Santa Clara W 71-70 74%     6 - 0 +7.6 +0.0 +7.6
  Fri, Nov 28 81 Stanford L 77-78 73%     6 - 1 +5.9 +5.2 +0.7
  Tue, Dec 2 123 @Loyola Marymount W 91-70 77%     7 - 1 +26.4 +16.1 +8.3
  Sun, Dec 7 323 Central Michigan W 107-65 98%     8 - 1 +29.2 +28.3 +1.4
  Sat, Dec 13 95 San Francisco W 85-75 83%     9 - 1 +12.8 +12.1 +0.7
  Wed, Dec 17 269 Bethune-Cookman W 112-53 97%     10 - 1 +50.1 +23.9 +20.5
  Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire W 93-79 98%     11 - 1 +0.4 +11.2 -11.5
  Wed, Dec 31 188 Saint Joseph's W 85-67 95%    
  Wed, Jan 7 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 80-81 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 233 @La Salle W 82-67 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 193 Fordham W 82-64 95%    
  Sat, Jan 17 104 Richmond W 85-73 86%    
  Tue, Jan 20 121 @Duquesne W 89-81 76%    
  Fri, Jan 23 116 @St. Bonaventure W 80-73 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 77 George Washington W 89-80 79%    
  Fri, Jan 30 68 Dayton W 82-74 77%    
  Tue, Feb 3 140 @Davidson W 81-72 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 233 La Salle W 85-64 97%    
  Fri, Feb 13 270 @Loyola Chicago W 86-70 93%    
  Tue, Feb 17 119 @Rhode Island W 81-74 74%    
  Fri, Feb 20 47 Virginia Commonwealth W 83-78 67%    
  Tue, Feb 24 68 @Dayton W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 121 Duquesne W 92-78 89%    
  Wed, Mar 4 270 Loyola Chicago W 89-67 98%    
  Sat, Mar 7 88 @George Mason W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 8.4 15.9 16.5 10.4 3.3 56.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.5 8.5 4.3 0.7 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 4.6 1.6 0.1 10.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.6 8.5 13.8 18.4 20.3 17.3 10.4 3.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.3    3.3
17-1 99.9% 10.4    10.2 0.2
16-2 95.7% 16.5    14.4 2.0 0.0
15-3 78.3% 15.9    10.2 5.1 0.6 0.0
14-4 45.4% 8.4    3.0 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.7% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.5% 56.5 41.4 11.8 2.7 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.3% 97.6% 59.3% 38.3% 4.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.0%
17-1 10.4% 91.0% 52.2% 38.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 81.1%
16-2 17.3% 79.6% 46.6% 33.0% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.3 4.4 2.6 0.0 3.5 61.9%
15-3 20.3% 67.7% 42.8% 24.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.8 6.2 0.1 6.6 43.5%
14-4 18.4% 52.3% 35.6% 16.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 6.3 0.3 8.8 25.8%
13-5 13.8% 39.3% 29.9% 9.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 0.4 8.4 13.4%
12-6 8.5% 28.5% 23.8% 4.7% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.4 6.0 6.2%
11-7 4.6% 19.5% 18.1% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.7 1.8%
10-8 2.2% 14.3% 13.8% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 0.5%
9-9 0.9% 4.7% 4.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 0.3% 7.1% 7.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.9% 38.0% 20.9% 9.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.8 7.6 13.9 22.1 1.7 0.0 41.1 33.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 3.7 5.7 13.6 21.5 32.4 18.6 6.0 2.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 95.5% 6.3 1.9 9.0 16.8 26.5 23.9 9.7 7.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 95.6% 6.8 6.3 11.9 19.5 27.0 17.0 10.7 3.1