Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +15.6 25
Results Rating +14.8 35
Consistency 0.17 299
Pace 77.6 16
Improvement -4.2 329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 46 A C+ C C A
Defense A- 19 A A- C- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 16 B 64% 57 +7.1 12
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 363 C+ 40% 102 -5.4 363
Three Pointers 48% 47 A 41% 2 +8.7 7
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.4 2 A +7.5 11
1st FG Attempt A 1.23 1
Second Chance C+ 32.6% 110 C 1.05 155 C+ 0.34 109
Opponents' Steals C 9.6% 204
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 127
Turnovers C 16.5% 163
Freethrows C 0.30 200 C+ 73% 165 C 0.22 181
Total Offense B+ +7.5 46

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 180 B- 9.5% 100
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 228 F 9.5% 352
Three Pointers B- 89% 75 C+ 0.7% 144
Total B 62% 49 C+ 5.3% 153

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 278 A 48% 12 -5.5 30
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 91 B- 36% 101 +0.5 229
Three Pointers 41% 155 A- 29% 23 -2.6 67
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 80 A -6.9 9
1st FG Attempt A 0.87 10
Second Chance B+ 25.2% 25 A- 0.87 13 A- 0.22 13
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.9% 150
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 337
Turnovers C- 15.9% 234
Freethrows C- 0.32 229 C- 73% 243 C- 0.23 242
Total Defense A- +8.1 19

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 129 C 10.5% 193
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 214 D+ 3.6% 255
Three Pointers B- 81% 90 B- 1.4% 75
Total C+ 53% 121 C- 5.1% 206

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.5 5 18.0 291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 7 0.16 143
Consistency 0.15 341 0.13 249
Improvement -2.8 312 -1.4 261

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Likely In
Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 35 26 22
Results Rating Rank 44 36 21
Conference Record 15 - 3 16 - 2 16 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 9 7
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 5% 5% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92% 92% 86%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81% 82% 71%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 9.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 99% 100% 92%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 8% 12%
First Round89% 89% 81%
Second Round49% 50% 39%
Sweet Sixteen12% 12% 9%
Elite Eight5% 5% 3%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Duquesne (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 26 - 28 - 3
Quad 310 - 117 - 4
Quad 411 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 97% +10  75% 1 - 0 A +18 B+ +8 B+ C+ D A- +8 A A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 347 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  90% 2 - 0 B- +6 B- +5 A F B- D+ -3 C- B- B-
 Mon, Nov 10 277 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 98% +22  98% 3 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +16 A+ A+ F A+ +11 C C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 61 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 82% +11  93% 4 - 0 A +20 B- +4 A+ C F A+ +15 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 259 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 98% +19  97% 5 - 0 A +23 A- +11 A+ C- F+ A+ +12 A+ C C
 Thu, Nov 27 43 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 63% -3  11% 6 - 0 B+ +13 C- -1 B- D- A+ A+ +14 A+ A B-
 Fri, Nov 28 74 Stanford L 77 - 78 77% +6  77% 6 - 1 B- +7 C+ +3 F+ A A- B- +3 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 149 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 87% +12  94% 7 - 1 A+ +25 A- +11 A+ A+ F A+ +11 A B C
 Sun, Dec 7 264 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 98% +23  96% 8 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ B+ +6 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 128 San Francisco W 85 - 75 93% +1  50% 9 - 1 B +9 B +7 A D+ C+ B- +2 B A- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 237 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 97% +31  94% 10 - 1 A+ +52 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ A+ +22 A+ A- C
 Sun, Dec 21 346 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  65% 11 - 1 C- -2 B +7 B- C- A- F -10 F A F
 Wed, Dec 31 126 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 92% +12  86% 12 - 1 1 - 0 A +23 A+ +37 A+ C- A F -13 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 49 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 55% +6  97% 13 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +23 D -5 C- F B- A+ +28 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 212 @La Salle W 84 - 72 92% +12  99% 14 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +12 A +14 A+ D+ F+ C -1 B B+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 154 Fordham W 78 - 56 95% +12  89% 15 - 1 4 - 0 A +19 A+ +16 A+ A- A+ B+ +6 A- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 130 Richmond W 88 - 63 93% +19  97% 16 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +24 A +11 A D A- A+ +13 A+ D+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 119 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 82% +5  80% 17 - 1 6 - 0 B +10 C+ +2 B B+ D- A- +8 A+ F+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 133 @St. Bonaventure W 97 - 62 85% +25  98% 18 - 1 7 - 0 A+ +40 A+ +20 A+ B- B+ A+ +19 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 76 George Washington W 79 - 76 85% -5  11% 19 - 1 8 - 0 B- +8 D+ -3 C+ C C- A +11 A A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 78 Dayton W 102 - 71 85% +18  99% 20 - 1 9 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +26 A+ A+ A- A- +8 C+ A A-
 Tue, Feb 3 110 @Davidson W 91 - 82 80% -1  39% 21 - 1 10 - 0 A- +16 A+ +20 A- A+ A- D+ -5 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 212 La Salle W 82 - 58 97% +7  82% 22 - 1 11 - 0 A +18 B- +5 A+ F B- A+ +13 A A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 13 284 @Loyola Chicago W 86 - 59 95% +12  96% 23 - 1 12 - 0 A+ +23 B +6 A+ C F A+ +16 B+ A+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 131 @Rhode Island L 76 - 81 84% -4  5% 23 - 2 12 - 1 C -0 C +0 C+ D D- C -0 D A+ C-
 Fri, Feb 20 49 Virginia Commonwealth W 88 - 75 76% -4  24% 24 - 2 13 - 1 A +21 B +7 A+ B- F+ A+ +13 A+ C- A
 Tue, Feb 24 78 @Dayton L 62 - 77 69% -14  1% 24 - 3 13 - 2 C- -5 D- -6 D+ F C C+ +1 B D+ D
 Sat, Feb 28 119 Duquesne W 89 - 73 93%
 Wed, Mar 4 284 Loyola Chicago W 90 - 64 99%
 Sat, Mar 7 109 @George Mason W 80 - 71 79%
Totals 27 - 3 16 - 2 +16 B+ +7 A+ A A A- +8 A C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B C+ A A 46% 13% 48% A A C+ C C+ C C C+ C A- A B- A- A 35% 23% 41% B- A B+ A- A- C- C- C- C-
1.19 64% 40% 41% +8 +2 1.23 33% 1.0 .34 17% .30 73% .22 0.97 48% 36% 29% -7 -1 0.87 25% 0.9 .22 16% .32 73% .22
Nov
3		 Southeast Missouri St. B+ A+ F+ D B 49% 5% 46% A B+ A F C+ D D- A- D+ A- B- B A B 25% 42% 32% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F D- C- D-
1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27 0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26
Nov
6		 Chicago St. B- A+ F A+ A 45% 4% 51% A- A F F F B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F C C- 32% 38% 30% B- C- C B B- B- F D- F
1.26 76% 0% 43% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.6 .14 18% .47 91% .42 1.00 37% 48% 33% -3 -3 0.90 28% 0.8 .23 18% .50 80% .40
Nov
10		 Lindenwood A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 2% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ D+ B- A- C- 42% 27% 31% B C B- C- C+ A+ F A+ D-
1.35 76% 0% 50% +19 +4 1.48 48% 1.7 .83 25% .51 71% .36 0.81 60% 31% 27% -5 -1 0.92 28% 1.1 .31 30% .46 54% .25
Nov
15		 Grand Canyon B- B F A+ A 46% 6% 48% A+ A+ B F C F C- A+ B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ B A+ A+ C- C- F F+
1.04 58% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 24% .30 82% .25 0.86 50% 9% 25% -15 0 0.73 30% 0.5 .14 16% .35 86% .30
Nov
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A A+ A+ A+ 35% 6% 59% B- A+ A+ F C- F+ B A+ A+ A+ A F+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 56% B A+ B- D- C C C+ F C-
1.29 72% 67% 43% +15 +2 1.35 48% 0.7 .35 23% .31 94% .29 0.85 47% 44% 20% -14 0 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
27		 Santa Clara C- C A+ D C+ 45% 6% 49% A- B- C- F D- A+ C- F D A+ A A+ A+ A+ 53% 8% 39% F A+ A- B+ A B- F F F
1.00 59% 67% 29% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 16% .32 63% .20 0.99 48% 25% 25% -12 +3 0.84 31% 1.0 .31 17% .37 82% .31
Nov
28		 Stanford C+ F F F F 53% 10% 37% A+ F+ A- A- A A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ F A 47% 7% 45% D+ A- B+ A- A- D+ D- B- D
1.06 44% 20% 26% -13 +2 0.80 34% 1.2 .42 15% .46 93% .42 1.08 31% 0% 48% -6 +2 0.95 30% 0.8 .26 14% .38 71% .27
Dec
2		 Loyola Marymount A- A A+ C- A- 52% 4% 45% A+ A+ A+ B A+ F D+ A- C- A+ B D- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% D- A B C+ B C C C- C
1.18 66% 50% 32% +3 +3 1.14 49% 1.1 .54 23% .25 80% .20 0.91 55% 45% 23% -7 0 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 18% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Central Michigan A+ A- B+ A 55% 0% 45% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C- B- C B+ A+ F D- C+ 30% 30% 40% B C+ B A A- C+ F C F
1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25 0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28
Dec
13		 San Francisco B A D D+ A- 52% 12% 37% A+ A A F D+ C+ A+ D+ A+ B- B- F A+ B- 17% 19% 64% A B A C A- D- C- C C-
1.21 70% 33% 32% +5 +2 1.15 36% 0.7 .25 13% .41 72% .29 1.06 56% 70% 26% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 13% .34 71% .24
Dec
17		 Bethune-Cookman A+ B+ A A+ A+ 48% 3% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ B F+ C A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B A+ A B+ A- C D- C- D-
1.45 64% 50% 57% +20 +3 1.48 34% 1.7 .59 17% .36 65% .23 0.68 45% 19% 12% -21 -1 0.58 21% 0.9 .19 18% .36 70% .25
Dec
21		 New Hampshire B C- F A+ B- 40% 11% 49% B B- B F+ C- A- A+ C- A+ F B- F F F 31% 20% 49% A- F A+ D A F C- A- C+
1.25 57% 17% 42% +3 +1 1.11 34% 0.9 .29 11% .47 74% .35 1.07 50% 50% 41% +5 -1 1.12 11% 1.0 .11 12% .28 61% .17
Dec
31		 Saint Joseph's A+ A+ F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A+ A+ D+ C C- A D+ F D F B A+ D- C+ 37% 21% 42% B+ B- D F F F F C F
1.56 76% 25% 62% +29 +2 1.63 28% 1.0 .28 11% .19 64% .12 1.21 53% 18% 36% -5 0 0.92 36% 1.4 .49 9% .40 75% .30
Jan
7		 Virginia Commonwealth D D+ C+ F D 59% 8% 32% A+ C- F D- F B- D D+ D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 11% 39% D A+ A+ A+ A+ C C+ F D+
0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17 0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31
Jan
10		 La Salle A A A+ A+ A+ 56% 4% 40% A+ A+ B- F D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ C F D- A+ B- 36% 36% 29% A B C+ A B+ F F B+ F
1.24 68% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 32% 0.9 .28 21% .41 73% .30 1.07 69% 44% 8% -6 -2 0.87 33% 0.8 .26 10% .64 67% .43
Jan
14		 Fordham A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 33% 8% 59% A A+ C+ A+ A- A+ C- B C B+ A A- A A 35% 18% 47% C A- D+ A+ A+ F C F D+
1.28 75% 50% 38% +10 +1 1.24 28% 1.4 .38 10% .25 71% .18 0.92 47% 33% 26% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.4 .16 13% .25 77% .19
Jan
17		 Richmond A A+ A+ C- A 33% 15% 52% A- A B F D A- A A A+ A+ B A A+ A+ 17% 48% 35% A+ A+ B+ F D+ C D+ D D
1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30 0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29
Jan
20		 Duquesne C+ F+ B A+ B- 55% 14% 31% A B C- A+ B+ D- A- F B- A- A- A A+ A+ 39% 14% 46% B A+ F C- F+ C+ F D+ F
1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26 1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37
Jan
23		 St. Bonaventure A+ B- F A+ A+ 46% 2% 52% A+ A+ C A- B- B+ F F F A+ B B- A+ A+ 32% 34% 34% A A+ A A+ A+ D+ F A+ F
1.38 62% 0% 59% +20 +3 1.48 29% 1.2 .35 14% .15 44% .07 0.88 53% 39% 22% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.5 .14 16% .40 67% .27
Jan
27		 George Washington D+ D C- B- C- 46% 6% 48% A C+ C+ D+ C C- A F D+ A C F+ A+ A 43% 7% 50% C A A A+ A+ C+ D+ A C
1.04 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 18% .36 50% .18 1.00 61% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 29% 0.8 .22 18% .34 67% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Dayton A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A- A F+ B A- A F C C+ 47% 18% 35% C+ C+ A C+ A A- A+ F A
1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +3 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25 0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24
Feb
3		 Davidson A+ B- D- A B+ 44% 12% 44% A A- A- A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ D+ C+ A+ B A 34% 19% 47% C A- A- F F F D- F F
1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32 1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26
Feb
7		 La Salle B- A F A+ A+ 32% 10% 58% B- A+ F B+ F B- A+ B A A+ A- B A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% D- A C+ A+ A+ B- C+ C C+
1.16 69% 20% 45% +11 +1 1.26 14% 1.3 .18 16% .35 71% .25 0.82 46% 33% 20% -13 +1 0.78 33% 0.3 .11 20% .32 72% .23
Feb
13		 Loyola Chicago B D+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 5% 50% A+ A+ C+ D+ C F F D+ F A+ A F B+ B 21% 15% 64% A B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C+ A+ A-
1.18 52% 67% 50% +11 +2 1.29 31% 1.0 .31 19% .14 75% .10 0.81 45% 50% 29% -5 -1 0.91 15% 0.3 .05 15% .29 50% .15
Feb
17		 Rhode Island C F+ A+ A- C- 54% 4% 42% A+ C+ D+ D- D D- A+ A- A+ C A+ F F D- 36% 12% 52% C- D A A+ A+ C- F F F
1.02 46% 50% 40% -2 +3 1.04 27% 0.9 .24 24% .46 77% .35 1.09 33% 67% 46% +4 +1 1.12 24% 0.4 .11 19% .45 85% .38
Feb
20		 Virginia Commonwealth B A- A+ A A+ 58% 7% 35% A+ A+ B+ D+ B- F+ C+ F D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 43% 4% 53% F+ A+ D B- C- A F C- F
1.13 64% 50% 40% +7 +3 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 21% .31 53% .16 0.97 30% 0% 29% -18 +3 0.72 38% 1.1 .40 21% .52 75% .39
Feb
24		 Dayton D- A- F F D 42% 19% 40% B+ D+ D F F C C- A+ B- C+ C A C B 43% 19% 38% B B A+ F D+ D D- C D
0.89 65% 22% 26% -5 0 0.94 24% 0.5 .12 22% .29 81% .24 1.11 60% 22% 33% -3 0 0.98 16% 2.4 .38 14% .47 75% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.1 25.3 72.9 99.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.7 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 1.8 25.3 72.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 72.9    72.9
15-3 100.0% 25.3    14.8 10.5
14-4 60.7% 1.1    0.3 0.8
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 99.3% 99.3 88.0 11.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 72.9% 93.8% 57.8% 36.0% 8.6 0.0 0.6 4.2 9.9 15.2 18.3 15.5 4.6 0.0 4.5 85.4%
15-3 25.3% 86.4% 53.7% 32.7% 9.8 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.0 9.2 5.2 0.0 3.4 70.7%
14-4 1.8% 78.1% 52.8% 25.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 53.6%
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.7% 56.7% 35.0% 8.9 8.3 80.8%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 42.1% 100.0% 8.1 0.1 1.5 9.9 21.9 28.1 25.7 11.3 1.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.8% 88.0% 9.4 0.1 3.1 14.2 26.7 32.5 11.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.0% 84.7% 9.6 1.7 8.9 24.2 36.7 13.3