Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#70
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#55
Pace69.4#151
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 19.9% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.4% 7.5% 0.7%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.9
.500 or above 92.1% 92.4% 69.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 79.2% 59.4%
Conference Champion 17.0% 17.2% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.4% 6.5%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 0.6%
First Round18.2% 18.4% 6.8%
Second Round7.6% 7.6% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 2.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 24 - 45 - 6
Quad 38 - 312 - 9
Quad 49 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 238   Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 91%     1 - 0 +17.8 +8.5 +7.0
  Nov 06, 2025 347   Chicago St. W 85-63 98%    
  Nov 10, 2025 317   Lindenwood W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 15, 2025 78   Grand Canyon W 78-74 63%    
  Nov 21, 2025 208   Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-69 89%    
  Nov 27, 2025 97   Santa Clara W 76-73 59%    
  Dec 02, 2025 132   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 07, 2025 275   Central Michigan W 81-64 93%    
  Dec 13, 2025 73   San Francisco W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 17, 2025 191   Bethune-Cookman W 81-68 86%    
  Dec 21, 2025 358   New Hampshire W 84-60 98%    
  Dec 31, 2025 116   Saint Joseph's W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 07, 2026 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 10, 2026 193   @ La Salle W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 14, 2026 170   Fordham W 82-70 83%    
  Jan 17, 2026 129   Richmond W 73-64 77%    
  Jan 20, 2026 110   @ Duquesne W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 23, 2026 115   @ St. Bonaventure W 69-67 54%    
  Jan 27, 2026 79   George Washington W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 30, 2026 59   Dayton W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 03, 2026 140   @ Davidson W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 07, 2026 193   La Salle W 80-67 85%    
  Feb 13, 2026 108   @ Loyola Chicago W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 17, 2026 128   @ Rhode Island W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 20, 2026 57   Virginia Commonwealth W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 24, 2026 59   @ Dayton L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 28, 2026 110   Duquesne W 73-66 72%    
  Mar 04, 2026 108   Loyola Chicago W 76-69 71%    
  Mar 07, 2026 89   @ George Mason L 67-68 46%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 5.0 3.7 1.8 0.5 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.1 4.4 1.6 0.2 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.3 3.7 0.9 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.6 0.7 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 3.9 1.1 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.5 1.5 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.6 5.6 7.7 9.4 11.1 12.3 12.6 11.2 9.4 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 94.3% 3.7    3.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 74.8% 5.0    3.2 1.6 0.2
14-4 43.3% 4.1    1.7 1.7 0.6 0.1
13-5 14.9% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 10.6 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 96.1% 59.8% 36.3% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.2%
17-1 1.8% 88.7% 43.4% 45.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 80.1%
16-2 3.9% 74.6% 40.8% 33.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 57.2%
15-3 6.7% 59.6% 33.2% 26.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.0 2.7 39.5%
14-4 9.4% 39.9% 25.9% 14.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 0.1 5.6 19.0%
13-5 11.2% 26.0% 20.2% 5.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.2 8.3 7.3%
12-6 12.6% 15.1% 13.2% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 2.2%
11-7 12.3% 8.9% 8.2% 0.6% 11.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.2 0.7%
10-8 11.1% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.5 0.1%
9-9 9.4% 2.8% 2.8% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1
8-10 7.7% 2.1% 2.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.6
7-11 5.6% 0.9% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-13 2.4% 2.4
4-14 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.7% 13.4% 6.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.0 4.0 8.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.3 7.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.7 22.2 22.2 29.6 22.2 3.7