Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#62
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#57
Pace71.8#108
Improvement-1.0#257

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#68
First Shot+3.2#94
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#104
Layup/Dunks+2.2#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#283
Freethrows+2.2#52
Improvement-0.8#266

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#79
First Shot+2.8#94
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#135
Layups/Dunks+1.0#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#51
Freethrows-2.3#300
Improvement-0.1#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 4.4% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 38.4% 21.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.7% 25.6% 11.3%
Average Seed 10.0 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 92.4% 97.2% 89.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 90.8% 85.1%
Conference Champion 17.0% 21.1% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four5.8% 7.9% 4.4%
First Round25.6% 34.4% 19.8%
Second Round10.0% 14.3% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 4.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.7% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 37 - 212 - 11
Quad 49 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 340   Central Arkansas W 96-61 98%     1 - 0 +19.1 +5.6 +10.2
  Nov 12, 2021 346   Eastern Illinois W 86-44 98%     2 - 0 +25.2 +6.7 +18.3
  Nov 16, 2021 24   @ Memphis L 74-90 19%     2 - 1 +0.7 +0.1 +3.2
  Nov 20, 2021 196   Mercer W 75-58 87%     3 - 1 +12.4 +4.0 +9.5
  Nov 23, 2021 244   Illinois St. W 82-76 86%     4 - 1 +1.8 +2.6 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2021 158   Stephen F. Austin W 79-68 75%     5 - 1 +11.5 +4.0 +7.2
  Nov 30, 2021 68   @ Boise St. L 66-69 40%    
  Dec 04, 2021 52   UAB W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 07, 2021 66   Belmont W 78-75 62%    
  Dec 11, 2021 125   Boston College W 73-65 77%    
  Dec 18, 2021 21   Auburn L 75-78 37%    
  Dec 22, 2021 57   Drake L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 30, 2021 117   @ Massachusetts W 82-81 56%    
  Jan 02, 2022 80   Richmond W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 05, 2022 243   La Salle W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 08, 2022 40   @ St. Bonaventure L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 11, 2022 111   @ Dayton W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 15, 2022 248   Fordham W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 23, 2022 117   Massachusetts W 85-78 76%    
  Jan 26, 2022 266   George Washington W 79-63 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 194   @ Duquesne W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 02, 2022 115   @ George Mason W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 111   Dayton W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 08, 2022 243   @ La Salle W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 11, 2022 40   St. Bonaventure L 68-69 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 84   @ Davidson L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 22, 2022 221   Saint Joseph's W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 25, 2022 80   @ Richmond L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 02, 2022 73   @ Rhode Island L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 05, 2022 81   Virginia Commonwealth W 66-62 63%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.1 4.3 5.6 3.8 1.7 0.3 17.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.7 5.6 2.0 0.3 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.7 5.3 1.2 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.2 1.4 0.1 12.3 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 5.0 1.8 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.0 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.7 2.4 0.3 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.5 6.1 8.8 11.5 13.5 14.9 13.6 11.2 7.7 4.1 1.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 92.5% 3.8    3.2 0.6
15-3 72.5% 5.6    3.3 2.0 0.3
14-4 38.9% 4.3    1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 10.0 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 95.8% 47.3% 48.5% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 92.0%
16-2 4.1% 88.4% 36.1% 52.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 81.8%
15-3 7.7% 72.4% 29.7% 42.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 60.7%
14-4 11.2% 53.3% 20.4% 32.9% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.1 5.2 41.3%
13-5 13.6% 36.0% 19.0% 17.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.7 21.0%
12-6 14.9% 22.4% 12.7% 9.6% 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.6 11.1%
11-7 13.5% 12.5% 9.4% 3.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.8 3.4%
10-8 11.5% 6.9% 5.7% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.7 1.3%
9-9 8.8% 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 8.5 0.1%
8-10 6.1% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.0
7-11 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-12 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.3% 14.0% 14.4% 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.8 3.5 4.4 7.8 5.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 71.7 16.7%