St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#45
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#37
Pace63.3#317
Improvement-1.4#284

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#53
First Shot+5.6#37
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#220
Layup/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#223
Freethrows+3.3#26
Improvement-0.4#223

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#55
First Shot+4.3#54
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#145
Layups/Dunks+4.0#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#286
Freethrows+2.7#34
Improvement-1.0#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 9.0% 9.2% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.8% 56.5% 35.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.6% 42.4% 22.7%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 9.8
.500 or above 99.4% 99.6% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 96.2% 91.0%
Conference Champion 35.9% 36.3% 24.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four8.8% 8.9% 7.0%
First Round51.4% 52.1% 31.4%
Second Round24.6% 25.1% 12.2%
Sweet Sixteen8.1% 8.2% 3.6%
Elite Eight2.9% 2.9% 1.5%
Final Four1.0% 1.0% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 96.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 2
Quad 26 - 38 - 5
Quad 38 - 216 - 7
Quad 48 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 279   Siena W 75-47 95%     1 - 0 +18.6 +8.2 +14.1
  Nov 14, 2021 290   Canisius W 69-60 96%     2 - 0 -1.1 -11.5 +10.1
  Nov 18, 2021 78   Boise St. W 67-61 62%     3 - 0 +12.6 +9.7 +3.8
  Nov 19, 2021 56   Clemson W 68-65 56%     4 - 0 +11.3 +8.2 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2021 67   Marquette W 70-54 59%     5 - 0 +23.5 -2.3 +25.0
  Nov 27, 2021 127   Northern Iowa L 80-90 83%     5 - 1 -10.5 +3.9 -14.1
  Dec 01, 2021 306   Coppin St. W 93-81 96%     6 - 1 +0.8 +11.4 -11.2
  Dec 04, 2021 69   Buffalo W 68-65 71%     7 - 1 +7.1 -4.8 +11.9
  Dec 08, 2021 277   Loyola Maryland W 75-56 96%    
  Dec 11, 2021 23   Connecticut L 65-69 36%    
  Dec 17, 2021 36   Virginia Tech L 63-65 44%    
  Dec 22, 2021 142   @ Northeastern W 64-59 67%    
  Dec 30, 2021 264   @ George Washington W 72-60 87%    
  Jan 02, 2022 98   @ Dayton W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 05, 2022 235   Fordham W 73-56 94%    
  Jan 08, 2022 65   Saint Louis W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 11, 2022 248   @ La Salle W 72-61 85%    
  Jan 14, 2022 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-58 72%    
  Jan 21, 2022 212   @ Duquesne W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 26, 2022 139   @ George Mason W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 207   Saint Joseph's W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 01, 2022 70   Davidson W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 04, 2022 62   @ Richmond L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 11, 2022 65   @ Saint Louis L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 16, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 212   Duquesne W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 22, 2022 77   Rhode Island W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 207   @ Saint Joseph's W 76-67 78%    
  Mar 01, 2022 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 61-60 52%    
  Mar 04, 2022 62   Richmond W 71-66 68%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.2 7.4 11.1 9.2 4.4 1.3 35.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.1 7.1 7.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.5 5.4 1.4 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.4 1.0 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.8 1.3 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.5 0.2 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.2 7.0 10.2 13.6 15.8 16.1 13.9 9.6 4.5 1.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.7% 4.4    4.3 0.1 0.0
16-2 95.9% 9.2    8.0 1.2 0.0
15-3 80.0% 11.1    7.4 3.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 46.1% 7.4    2.7 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.1% 2.2    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.9% 35.9 24.0 8.9 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 99.4% 55.2% 44.2% 3.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
17-1 4.5% 98.5% 45.2% 53.3% 5.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.3%
16-2 9.6% 94.2% 40.0% 54.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.6 90.4%
15-3 13.9% 86.6% 34.4% 52.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.7 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 79.5%
14-4 16.1% 72.0% 28.3% 43.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.1 3.2 1.0 0.0 4.5 61.0%
13-5 15.8% 54.5% 22.7% 31.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.5 1.6 0.0 7.2 41.2%
12-6 13.6% 37.9% 18.3% 19.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.4 24.0%
11-7 10.2% 23.8% 13.3% 10.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.7 12.2%
10-8 7.0% 12.0% 8.1% 4.0% 11.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.2 4.3%
9-9 4.2% 7.5% 6.0% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 1.6%
8-10 2.2% 3.6% 3.5% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.1%
7-11 1.0% 2.3% 2.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 55.8% 24.2% 31.5% 9.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.4 3.0 4.3 5.4 8.0 9.7 12.5 6.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 44.2 41.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 41.2 38.2 15.7 2.0 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 25.0 15.6 25.0 28.1 6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 5.7 28.6 25.7 37.1 2.9