Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#74
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#72
Pace71.2#100
Improvement+1.2#51

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#167
First Shot+1.4#127
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#274
Layup/Dunks+3.0#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#282
Freethrows+3.1#16
Improvement+1.3#24

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#23
First Shot+5.7#34
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#70
Layups/Dunks-2.2#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#50
Freethrows+0.8#122
Improvement-0.1#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 26.7% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 6.5% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.5 11.2 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 55.7% 76.9% 41.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 3.6% 0.9%
First Round21.1% 24.6% 18.7%
Second Round5.6% 7.1% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 310 - 313 - 7
Quad 49 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 294   Manhattan W 73-56 93%     1 - 0 +7.3 -7.6 +14.2
  Nov 12, 2022 300   Morgan St. W 69-54 94%     2 - 0 +4.6 -11.1 +14.9
  Nov 16, 2022 66   Arizona St. L 59-63 45%     2 - 1 +4.4 -6.1 +10.3
  Nov 17, 2022 64   Pittsburgh W 71-67 45%     3 - 1 +12.4 -0.8 +13.0
  Nov 20, 2022 38   @ Memphis L 47-62 25%     3 - 2 -0.8 -18.1 +17.0
  Nov 26, 2022 150   Kennesaw St. W 64-61 80%     4 - 2 +1.1 -5.7 +7.0
  Nov 30, 2022 97   Vanderbilt W 70-65 68%     5 - 2 +7.1 -2.7 +9.9
  Dec 03, 2022 98   @ Temple L 73-83 48%     5 - 3 -2.4 +5.1 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2022 197   Jacksonville L 62-73 85%     5 - 4 -15.1 -8.7 -7.0
  Dec 11, 2022 269   Howard W 70-60 92%     6 - 4 +1.7 -8.3 +9.8
  Dec 14, 2022 178   Radford W 70-62 83%     7 - 4 +5.0 -5.1 +9.9
  Dec 17, 2022 271   Northern Illinois W 90-63 92%     8 - 4 +18.6 +4.9 +11.1
  Dec 21, 2022 212   Navy W 74-52 87%     9 - 4 +17.2 +7.3 +12.4
  Dec 31, 2022 230   La Salle W 80-67 89%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +6.7 -0.3 +6.1
  Jan 04, 2023 126   @ Duquesne L 70-79 58%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -3.9 -1.5 -2.4
  Jan 07, 2023 123   Davidson W 89-72 76%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +16.9 +15.2 +1.5
  Jan 10, 2023 220   @ Loyola Chicago W 78-64 75%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +14.2 +9.7 +5.3
  Jan 13, 2023 68   @ Dayton W 63-62 35%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +11.9 +0.4 +11.6
  Jan 17, 2023 143   Massachusetts W 83-55 78%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +26.9 +9.0 +17.4
  Jan 20, 2023 125   @ Richmond W 74-62 58%     15 - 5 6 - 1 +17.1 +3.5 +13.3
  Jan 25, 2023 122   George Mason W 72-52 75%     16 - 5 7 - 1 +19.9 +3.9 +17.2
  Jan 28, 2023 147   St. Bonaventure L 58-61 80%     16 - 6 7 - 2 -4.6 -7.9 +3.0
  Jan 31, 2023 123   @ Davidson W 61-59 57%     17 - 6 8 - 2 +7.4 +1.1 +6.6
  Feb 03, 2023 79   @ Saint Louis L 70-72 40%    
  Feb 07, 2023 68   Dayton W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 15, 2023 198   @ Rhode Island W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 18, 2023 132   Fordham W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 21, 2023 162   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 24, 2023 125   Richmond W 69-62 77%    
  Feb 28, 2023 79   Saint Louis W 73-70 63%    
  Mar 04, 2023 191   @ George Washington W 76-70 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 13.1 22.8 14.2 3.8 55.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 9.8 12.2 2.3 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.1 6.2 0.8 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.1 0.8 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.8 8.9 18.5 26.1 25.1 14.2 3.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.8    3.8
15-3 100.0% 14.2    13.7 0.5
14-4 90.9% 22.8    15.1 7.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 50.1% 13.1    3.5 6.8 2.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 9.2% 1.7    0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.7% 55.7 36.3 15.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.8% 56.6% 29.4% 27.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 38.5%
15-3 14.2% 31.0% 24.9% 6.1% 11.2 0.0 0.4 2.9 1.1 0.0 9.8 8.2%
14-4 25.1% 24.4% 22.2% 2.2% 11.5 0.2 3.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 19.0 2.8%
13-5 26.1% 19.0% 18.4% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 1.6 2.9 0.4 21.2 0.7%
12-6 18.5% 16.1% 15.9% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 15.5 0.2%
11-7 8.9% 14.2% 14.2% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 7.6
10-8 2.8% 12.9% 12.9% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
9-9 0.5% 8.5% 8.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 0.0% 10.0% 10.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.3% 19.7% 2.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 9.2 9.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 77.7 3.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 56.6% 10.2 0.1 0.5 3.0 8.7 19.4 23.4 1.5
Lose Out 0.0% 10.0% 14.5 5.0 5.0