Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#55
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#90
Pace66.2#261
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot-0.4#185
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#33
Layup/Dunks-5.0#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#98
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement+0.8#118

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#27
First Shot+8.8#7
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#316
Layups/Dunks+4.9#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#11
Freethrows-2.2#308
Improvement-1.0#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 28.8% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.3% 8.5% 2.7%
Average Seed 9.8 9.8 10.8
.500 or above 98.9% 99.1% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 94.8% 88.8%
Conference Champion 27.4% 27.9% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four2.3% 2.4% 1.3%
First Round27.3% 27.8% 15.0%
Second Round12.1% 12.4% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 4.0% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 45 - 6
Quad 38 - 314 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 84-65 97%     1 - 0 +6.1 +7.3 -0.2
  Nov 08, 2024 145   Boston College W 80-55 80%     2 - 0 +25.9 +6.5 +18.7
  Nov 13, 2024 222   Merrimack W 63-42 92%     3 - 0 +14.7 -9.3 +23.6
  Nov 16, 2024 335   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 97%     4 - 0 +12.9 +3.0 +9.2
  Nov 21, 2024 116   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 74%     4 - 1 +0.0 -4.3 +4.5
  Nov 22, 2024 48   Nevada L 61-64 47%     4 - 2 +7.3 +2.9 +4.0
  Nov 24, 2024 87   Miami (FL) W 77-70 63%     5 - 2 +13.2 +9.8 +4.1
  Dec 04, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 89-54 93%     6 - 2 +28.0 +16.3 +12.7
  Dec 09, 2024 279   Penn W 79-60 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 99   Colorado St. W 68-64 66%    
  Dec 18, 2024 65   @ New Mexico L 75-77 41%    
  Dec 22, 2024 219   William & Mary W 84-68 93%    
  Dec 31, 2024 88   @ St. Bonaventure W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 86   @ Loyola Chicago W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 08, 2025 201   Fordham W 76-62 91%    
  Jan 14, 2025 137   Saint Louis W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 17, 2025 101   @ Saint Joseph's W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 21, 2025 91   @ Rhode Island W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 24, 2025 88   St. Bonaventure W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 28, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis W 76-71 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 186   Richmond W 73-59 89%    
  Feb 04, 2025 143   La Salle W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 07, 2025 46   @ Dayton L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 151   @ George Washington W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 171   Massachusetts W 76-63 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 82   George Mason W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 186   @ Richmond W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 28, 2025 134   Davidson W 75-64 84%    
  Mar 04, 2025 208   @ Duquesne W 70-61 78%    
  Mar 07, 2025 46   Dayton W 71-69 57%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 5.8 8.5 7.0 3.3 0.8 27.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.2 7.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.2 6.0 2.0 0.2 14.7 3rd
4th 0.6 3.7 5.2 1.7 0.2 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.9 0.2 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 5.2 8.5 11.6 14.7 15.9 15.3 11.9 7.4 3.3 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.5% 3.3    3.2 0.1
16-2 94.4% 7.0    5.7 1.3 0.0
15-3 71.4% 8.5    5.0 3.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 38.1% 5.8    2.0 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.0% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 17.0 7.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 95.5% 51.2% 44.3% 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
17-1 3.3% 84.8% 47.0% 37.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 71.3%
16-2 7.4% 66.3% 40.4% 25.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.5 43.4%
15-3 11.9% 47.8% 33.8% 14.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 0.2 6.2 21.2%
14-4 15.3% 33.6% 28.0% 5.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.1 0.5 10.2 7.8%
13-5 15.9% 24.9% 23.1% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 1.0 11.9 2.4%
12-6 14.7% 17.3% 16.9% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.0 12.1 0.5%
11-7 11.6% 11.5% 11.3% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 10.3 0.2%
10-8 8.5% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 11.7 0.3 0.4 0.0 7.8 0.1%
9-9 5.2% 5.5% 5.5% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.9
8-10 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 12.2 0.1 0.0 2.8
7-11 1.4% 2.4% 2.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 28.3% 21.9% 6.5% 9.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.7 4.3 11.2 4.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 71.7 8.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 18.8 26.7 35.6 15.8 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 13.3 20.0 23.3 23.3 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 13.8 13.8 20.7 24.1 13.8 6.9 6.9