Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#50
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#83
Pace71.7#123
Improvement-0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#72
First Shot+3.9#76
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#137
Layup/Dunks+0.3#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#42
Freethrows+1.3#101
Improvement+0.2#157

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#30
First Shot+3.8#60
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#33
Layups/Dunks-0.7#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#23
Freethrows-1.4#275
Improvement-0.3#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.1% 33.6% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.1% 12.5% 4.4%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 10.7
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 96.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 96.4% 91.7%
Conference Champion 29.6% 30.0% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.8% 4.9% 2.2%
First Round30.9% 31.4% 19.4%
Second Round12.7% 13.0% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 3.2% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 26 - 47 - 8
Quad 36 - 213 - 10
Quad 410 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 303 Wagner W 103-74 97%     1 - 0 +18.2 +17.9 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 7 44 Utah St. L 77-80 48%     1 - 1 +8.3 +2.6 +6.0
  Wed, Nov 12 290 St. Peter's W 78-61 96%     2 - 1 +6.9 +3.8 +3.5
  Mon, Nov 17 29 @North Carolina St. L 79-85 27%     2 - 2 +11.1 +8.9 +2.5
  Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101-58 99%     3 - 2 +21.5 +12.6 +6.3
  Wed, Nov 26 86 South Florida W 78-66 66%     4 - 2 +18.5 +5.5 +12.7
  Thu, Nov 27 10 Vanderbilt L 74-89 24%     4 - 3 +3.3 +2.4 +1.8
  Fri, Nov 28 64 Virginia Tech W 86-68 58%     5 - 3 +26.7 +15.8 +10.7
  Fri, Dec 5 238 Samford W 83-57 94%     6 - 3 +18.9 +5.0 +13.7
  Wed, Dec 10 72 New Mexico L 78-81 72%     6 - 4 +1.9 +8.2 -6.4
  Mon, Dec 15 352 Niagara W 84-58 99%     7 - 4 +10.0 +14.0 -1.1
  Thu, Dec 18 249 American W 84-65 96%    
  Mon, Dec 22 348 Rider W 80-54 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 112 St. Bonaventure W 77-67 84%    
  Sat, Jan 3 138 @Duquesne W 82-76 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 43 Saint Louis W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 75 @George Mason W 71-70 51%    
  Wed, Jan 14 115 @Rhode Island W 75-70 66%    
  Mon, Jan 19 174 Saint Joseph's W 80-65 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 127 @Davidson W 75-69 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 102 Richmond W 80-71 80%    
  Fri, Jan 30 288 Loyola Chicago W 84-63 97%    
  Tue, Feb 3 199 @Fordham W 74-64 83%    
  Fri, Feb 6 62 Dayton W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Feb 11 240 @La Salle W 76-64 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 102 @Richmond W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 80 George Washington W 83-76 72%    
  Fri, Feb 20 43 @Saint Louis L 76-80 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 199 Fordham W 77-61 93%    
  Tue, Mar 3 75 George Mason W 73-67 71%    
  Fri, Mar 6 62 @Dayton L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.1 9.5 7.8 3.6 0.8 29.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 7.5 7.8 3.2 0.4 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.7 6.3 1.8 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 5.4 1.5 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 1.6 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.6 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.2 3.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.4 7.1 11.7 14.7 17.1 15.8 12.8 8.1 3.6 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.5 0.1
16-2 95.6% 7.8    6.7 1.1 0.0
15-3 74.6% 9.5    5.8 3.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 38.6% 6.1    2.1 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.0% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 19.1 7.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 96.3% 49.2% 47.2% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.8%
17-1 3.6% 87.0% 46.2% 40.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 75.9%
16-2 8.1% 69.2% 41.1% 28.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.0 2.5 47.8%
15-3 12.8% 54.7% 35.6% 19.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 3.1 0.1 5.8 29.7%
14-4 15.8% 39.5% 29.3% 10.2% 10.7 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.2 0.2 9.6 14.4%
13-5 17.1% 27.3% 22.8% 4.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 0.3 12.4 5.9%
12-6 14.7% 20.5% 19.1% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 11.7 1.7%
11-7 11.7% 12.8% 12.4% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 10.2 0.5%
10-8 7.1% 8.8% 8.6% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.5 0.2%
9-9 4.4% 7.2% 7.2% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.1
8-10 2.2% 5.0% 5.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.1% 23.9% 9.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.4 6.9 16.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.9 12.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.1 2.5 5.9 23.7 36.4 15.3 11.0 4.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 95.0% 6.7 8.3 11.7 26.7 20.0 13.3 8.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 92.7% 7.4 4.9 17.1 29.3 24.4 14.6 2.4