Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#82
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#107
Pace70.0#155
Improvement+1.8#58

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#289
First Shot-3.1#268
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#248
Layup/Dunks+6.4#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#318
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement+1.7#49

Defense
Total Defense+10.5#1
First Shot+16.7#1
After Offensive Rebounds-6.2#357
Layups/Dunks+9.0#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#3
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#13
Freethrows-3.3#318
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 19.9% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.2% 10.5% 3.9%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.1
.500 or above 83.3% 87.0% 68.1%
.500 or above in Conference 78.2% 80.1% 70.1%
Conference Champion 9.9% 10.8% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four3.7% 4.2% 1.8%
First Round16.2% 17.7% 10.1%
Second Round5.7% 6.4% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 37 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 208   St. Peter's W 57-54 85%     1 - 0 -1.9 -14.9 +13.0
  Nov 13, 2021 120   Wagner L 44-58 72%     1 - 1 -13.7 -21.8 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2021 86   @ Vanderbilt W 48-37 40%     2 - 1 +20.0 -17.0 +37.8
  Nov 20, 2021 88   Chattanooga L 54-56 63%     2 - 2 +1.0 -9.1 +9.8
  Nov 24, 2021 59   Syracuse W 67-55 44%     3 - 2 +19.9 -6.7 +26.4
  Nov 25, 2021 3   Baylor L 61-69 13%     3 - 3 +10.8 -3.6 +14.4
  Nov 26, 2021 23   Connecticut L 63-70 OT 24%     3 - 4 +6.5 -8.2 +15.2
  Dec 04, 2021 171   Campbell W 65-61 81%     4 - 4 +0.8 -7.3 +8.3
  Dec 08, 2021 164   Jacksonville St. W 66-57 80%    
  Dec 11, 2021 203   @ Old Dominion W 60-55 68%    
  Dec 15, 2021 183   Florida Atlantic W 70-60 83%    
  Dec 18, 2021 92   Penn St. W 60-56 63%    
  Dec 21, 2021 187   New Hampshire W 64-54 83%    
  Dec 30, 2021 139   George Mason W 67-60 76%    
  Jan 02, 2022 70   Davidson W 63-61 58%    
  Jan 05, 2022 98   @ Dayton L 59-61 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 248   @ La Salle W 66-58 76%    
  Jan 11, 2022 264   George Washington W 70-55 91%    
  Jan 14, 2022 45   @ St. Bonaventure L 58-64 28%    
  Jan 22, 2022 207   Saint Joseph's W 73-62 84%    
  Jan 26, 2022 70   @ Davidson L 60-64 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 62   @ Richmond L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 02, 2022 98   Dayton W 62-58 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 212   Duquesne W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 08, 2022 77   Rhode Island W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 139   @ George Mason W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 15, 2022 235   @ Fordham W 64-57 75%    
  Feb 18, 2022 62   Richmond W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 119   @ Massachusetts W 73-72 51%    
  Mar 01, 2022 45   St. Bonaventure L 60-61 48%    
  Mar 05, 2022 65   @ Saint Louis L 64-68 36%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.0 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 4.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 5.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 4.5 0.7 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.9 1.3 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.9 2.2 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.3 9.0 12.1 14.3 14.9 13.3 10.3 7.0 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.9% 1.7    1.5 0.2
15-3 78.4% 3.1    2.0 1.0 0.1
14-4 43.3% 3.0    1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.4 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 98.5% 46.2% 52.3% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
17-1 0.5% 94.8% 31.3% 63.4% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.4%
16-2 1.8% 87.4% 32.9% 54.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 81.2%
15-3 3.9% 72.2% 26.5% 45.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.1 62.2%
14-4 7.0% 51.4% 21.6% 29.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.4 38.0%
13-5 10.3% 33.4% 16.6% 16.8% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 20.2%
12-6 13.3% 20.2% 13.6% 6.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 7.6%
11-7 14.9% 11.2% 9.0% 2.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.2 2.4%
10-8 14.3% 6.3% 5.8% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.4 0.5%
9-9 12.1% 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.1%
8-10 9.0% 2.8% 2.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7
7-11 6.3% 2.0% 2.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
6-12 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.1% 9.9% 8.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.9 5.7 4.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 81.9 9.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 14.3 52.4 4.8 28.6