Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.3 48
Expected Predictive Rating +11.8 49
Pace 72.4 75
Improvement -2.4 281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 48 B B B- A B
Defense B 63 B B- C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 107 C+ 59% 131 +2.1 100
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 336 B+ 44% 42 -2.4 295
Three Pointers 46% 66 B- 36% 91 +4.4 45
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 35 B- +2.8 87
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 67
Second Chance B 34.5% 66 B- 1.11 72 B 0.38 53
Turnovers B- 15.3% 86
Freethrows A 0.38 8 B- 74% 125 A 0.28 10
Total Offense B+ +7.1 48

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 195 C+ 9.7% 109
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 290 C- 5.6% 227
Three Pointers C+ 86% 144 C+ 0.7% 122
Total C+ 58% 126 B- 5.0% 110

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 B+ 52% 40 +0.6 201
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 114 C 38% 167 +0.6 234
Three Pointers 33% 352 C+ 32% 109 -4.6 21
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 210 B -3.5 51
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 66
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 138 B- 0.97 94 B- 0.28 95
Turnovers C 17.2% 160
Freethrows C+ 0.29 161 C+ 71% 124 C+ 0.21 149
Total Defense B +4.2 63

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 114 B- 13.8% 72
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 212 C- 4.0% 231
Three Pointers A 73% 9 A+ 3.3% 3
Total B 49% 41 B+ 8.1% 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 39 17.7 264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 79 0.14 78
Improvement -0.3 #200 -2.1 #293

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 56 47 40
Conference Record 13 - 5 14 - 4 15 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 10
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43% 44% 33%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26% 27% 17%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 4% 4% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four18% 18% 13%
First Round34% 35% 26%
Second Round11% 11% 7%
Sweet Sixteen2% 2% 2%
Elite Eight1% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 91.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 5
Quad 26 - 37 - 8
Quad 38 - 015 - 8
Quad 410 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 324 Wagner W 103 - 74 98% +12  95% 1 - 0 A- +16 A +12 C+ A+ C+ C+ +1 B- B C+
 Fri, Nov 7 28 Utah St. L 77 - 80 35% -8  9% 1 - 1 B+ +12 C +1 A- C- F+ A+ +11 A F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 235 St. Peter's W 78 - 61 95% +10  89% 2 - 1 B +10 C+ +3 A+ F F A- +8 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 23% -4  0% 2 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 B- B A B+ +6 A D- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101 - 58 99% +23  97% 3 - 2 A +21 A +11 A- F A+ A- +7 C A- C
 Wed, Nov 26 57 South Florida W 78 - 66 58% +3  61% 4 - 2 A +21 B- +4 D+ C+ A- A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 14 Vanderbilt L 74 - 89 24% -10  1% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +2 D B+ B B- +3 F+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 59 Virginia Tech W 86 - 68 58% +10  92% 5 - 3 A+ +27 A+ +14 A+ F D+ A+ +13 A- B+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 187 Samford W 83 - 57 93% +7  53% 6 - 3 A +21 B- +4 B+ B+ F A+ +18 A+ A C+
 Wed, Dec 10 45 New Mexico L 78 - 81 61% +1  53% 6 - 4 B- +6 B +7 D+ A B C- -2 F+ A+ A
 Mon, Dec 15 337 Niagara W 84 - 58 98% +8  91% 7 - 4 B +11 A +11 A+ C- C- B- +3 B+ C+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 251 American W 105 - 83 95% +12  94% 8 - 4 B+ +14 A+ +26 A- A+ A F -12 D+ C F+
 Mon, Dec 22 356 Rider W 100 - 79 99% +11  83% 9 - 4 C+ +3 A +13 A- A+ B- F -10 D+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 143 St. Bonaventure W 89 - 82 89% +0  40% 10 - 4 1 - 0 B- +5 A +14 B B+ A+ F+ -8 C- C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 110 @Duquesne W 93 - 80 67% +7  92% 11 - 4 2 - 0 A +20 A+ +19 A- A+ B- C +0 F A C+
 Wed, Jan 7 23 Saint Louis L 62 - 71 42% -6  1% 11 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +4 F -12 F+ F C+ A+ +17 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 105 @George Mason L 80 - 86 65% -1  44% 11 - 6 2 - 2 C +1 A +12 B+ B+ A- F -11 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 113 @Rhode Island W 84 - 75 69% +8  97% 12 - 6 3 - 2 A- +15 A+ +17 B+ A- A+ C -1 F+ A+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 130 Saint Joseph's W 79 - 72 88% +0  45% 13 - 6 4 - 2 B- +6 B- +4 C+ B B- B- +2 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 112 @Davidson W 75 - 69 68% +0  46% 14 - 6 5 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A- A+ D+ C -0 C B+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 129 Richmond W 77 - 69 87% +8  99% 15 - 6 6 - 2 B- +7 A +12 A- C A D+ -4 A- F C
 Fri, Jan 30 277 Loyola Chicago W 89 - 75 96% +0  50% 16 - 6 7 - 2 C+ +4 A +11 B- B B+ D- -7 C F C
 Tue, Feb 3 158 @Fordham W 63 - 59 79% +8  98% 17 - 6 8 - 2 B- +7 C- -2 C+ A F A +9 A+ C+ F+
 Fri, Feb 6 88 Dayton W 99 - 73 78% +17  94% 18 - 6 9 - 2 A+ +29 A +12 C A+ A+ A+ +14 A+ C B
 Wed, Feb 11 212 @La Salle W 77 - 68 85% +5  84% 19 - 6 10 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 B B D C+ +1 A+ D- F
 Sat, Feb 14 129 @Richmond W 78 - 67 73% +10  99% 20 - 6 11 - 2 A- +16 B- +4 B D C+ A+ +12 A+ B+ D-
 Tue, Feb 17 80 George Washington W 89 - 75 76% +4  71% 21 - 6 12 - 2 A +18 A+ +15 B+ B A+ B +3 A- B D+
 Fri, Feb 20 23 @Saint Louis L 75 - 88 22% +4  73% 21 - 7 12 - 3 B- +6 C+ +2 F+ A+ F B+ +6 C C+ A-
 Sat, Feb 28 158 Fordham W 78 - 64 91%
 Tue, Mar 3 105 George Mason W 79 - 69 82%
 Fri, Mar 6 88 @Dayton W 78 - 76 57%
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 4 +11 B+ +7 D B- B B +4 B- B- A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C+ B+ B- B- 41% 23% 46% B B B B- B B- A B- A B B+ C C+ B 44% 22% 33% C- B C+ B- B- C C+ C+ C+
1.19 59% 44% 36% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 15% .38 74% .28 1.03 52% 38% 32% -4 0 0.95 29% 1.0 .28 17% .29 71% .27
Nov
3		 Wagner A B- F C C 47% 2% 51% A C+ A A+ A+ C+ A D- B+ C+ A+ C+ F B 48% 21% 31% D- B- C- A B C+ F C- F
1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32 0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28
Nov
7		 Utah St. C C- B+ B+ A- 31% 14% 55% B A- B+ F C- F+ A+ F A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ 64% 13% 23% D- A D+ F F A+ F B- F
1.01 53% 43% 37% +2 0 1.06 38% 0.7 .27 25% .49 57% .28 1.05 47% 17% 45% -6 +3 0.96 39% 1.4 .56 24% .45 69% .31
Nov
12		 St. Peter's C+ B- B- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% B A+ B- F F F A+ C A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 33% 22% 44% C A+ D- A- C+ B D+ F F
1.14 61% 40% 44% +8 +1 1.22 39% 0.3 .12 25% .68 74% .51 0.89 27% 50% 20% -17 -1 0.67 40% 0.8 .33 20% .35 89% .31
Nov
17		 North Carolina St. B B F C B- 23% 7% 70% C B- C+ A B A C- C- C- B+ A+ F C- A 36% 22% 42% A- A F A D- A+ F D- F
1.07 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.2 .33 16% .29 67% .19 1.15 44% 50% 37% -1 0 1.00 42% 1.1 .45 23% .58 82% .48
Nov
22		 Coppin St. A A A+ C+ B 54% 6% 41% A A- D F F A+ A+ B- A+ A- B C- B C 40% 27% 33% C- C B- A+ A- C A+ A A+
1.36 72% 67% 36% +11 +3 1.30 31% 0.9 .28 11% .48 78% .38 0.78 48% 36% 29% -7 -1 0.87 25% 0.7 .18 23% .17 60% .10
Nov
26		 South Florida B- D- A D- D+ 37% 25% 38% C D+ A- D- C+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 64% 11% 25% D A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A- A+ A+
1.08 47% 46% 30% -4 -1 0.92 38% 0.8 .31 15% .52 72% .37 0.91 50% 0% 14% -17 +3 0.75 30% 0.9 .27 12% .32 60% .19
Nov
27		 Vanderbilt C+ F A+ F F+ 35% 10% 55% A D D A+ B+ B A+ B- A+ B- B F F F 43% 18% 39% C- F+ C A+ A A+ F A- F
0.98 44% 60% 21% -13 +1 0.78 21% 1.6 .33 17% .56 77% .43 1.18 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.30 33% 0.8 .27 23% .57 73% .41
Nov
28		 Virginia Tech A+ A- D+ A+ A+ 41% 22% 37% B- A+ B- F F D+ A+ D A+ A+ B+ B+ C- A- 45% 27% 29% C+ A- A+ D- B+ B+ F A+ C+
1.22 67% 36% 58% +17 0 1.35 33% 0.5 .17 20% .39 68% .26 0.96 55% 31% 36% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.3 .29 18% .40 57% .23
Dec
5		 Samford B- F+ B- A+ B- 40% 13% 46% A B+ A+ F+ B+ F A F C+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 38% 25% 37% C+ A+ B A+ A C+ B C- B
1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22 0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22
Dec
10		 New Mexico B F A+ D D- 39% 12% 49% A D+ A+ D+ A B A+ A+ A+ C- B- F F F+ 57% 9% 35% F+ F+ C A+ A+ A F F F
1.12 37% 67% 29% -8 +1 0.88 41% 0.9 .39 17% .48 82% .40 1.16 54% 75% 50% +9 +3 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 20% .39 86% .34
Dec
15		 Niagara A F+ C A+ A+ 27% 11% 62% C+ A+ B- F+ C- C- A+ F B B- A A- C A- 54% 19% 28% D+ B+ F A+ C+ D- A F B
1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26 0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13
Dec
18		 American A+ A+ B- B A- 43% 13% 44% B A- A+ A+ A+ A F A+ C+ F B+ A+ F D+ 37% 11% 52% C- D+ D B- C F+ F F F
1.49 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 50% 1.5 .77 14% .30 94% .28 1.18 50% 17% 43% +2 +1 1.07 28% 0.8 .23 13% .36 86% .31
Dec
22		 Rider A A C- A A- 54% 9% 38% B A- C A+ A+ B- A- A A F C- D- A+ D 42% 40% 19% B- D+ D- F F D+ F D F
1.39 70% 40% 43% +12 +3 1.30 34% 1.5 .52 12% .35 77% .27 1.09 55% 43% 20% -4 -2 0.91 36% 1.4 .49 15% .41 72% .29
Dec
31		 St. Bonaventure A A+ D F B- 48% 13% 40% A- B F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D+ A- F D+ 49% 34% 17% B- C- C- C- C- D C+ F D
1.31 78% 33% 26% +5 +2 1.15 20% 2.0 .40 10% .46 93% .43 1.21 62% 33% 56% +6 -1 1.11 37% 1.0 .37 15% .26 93% .24
Jan
3		 Duquesne A+ A D C+ B+ 42% 13% 44% A- A- B+ A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ C F F B- F 50% 4% 46% F+ F A+ A- A C+ F+ A D+
1.30 68% 33% 35% +4 +1 1.13 34% 1.8 .62 17% .52 77% .40 1.12 79% 50% 32% +10 +3 1.27 21% 0.8 .17 18% .43 64% .27
Jan
7		 Saint Louis F F F F+ F 50% 11% 39% A+ F+ D F F C+ B+ A+ A A+ A- C A+ A+ 59% 8% 32% D+ A+ A+ A A+ C- B+ B B+
0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31 0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17
Jan
10		 George Mason A A+ A D+ A- 31% 23% 46% C B+ B A- B+ A- A+ B A+ F F F A+ D 41% 31% 29% B+ D+ A F D- F D+ F F
1.20 73% 45% 32% +5 -1 1.10 32% 1.1 .35 12% .43 76% .32 1.29 75% 53% 21% +6 -1 1.12 23% 1.7 .38 11% .40 88% .35
Jan
14		 Rhode Island A+ B- F B+ B 42% 4% 54% A- B+ D A+ A- A+ A F+ B C D+ F C- F 39% 14% 47% C F+ A- A+ A+ C F A+ C-
1.25 60% 0% 38% +3 +2 1.13 26% 1.6 .42 7% .45 64% .29 1.11 63% 71% 35% +7 +1 1.18 27% 0.5 .13 19% .44 63% .28
Jan
19		 Saint Joseph's B- D- F B C- 40% 9% 51% A+ C+ D+ A+ B B- A+ C A B- B+ F F F 55% 9% 36% F F A B+ A A+ F+ A+ C-
1.09 48% 20% 37% -3 +2 0.98 28% 1.4 .38 14% .32 70% .22 0.99 50% 50% 47% +4 +3 1.15 25% 0.9 .22 25% .35 63% .22
Jan
24		 Davidson A A A+ F A+ 34% 37% 29% D- A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B A+ C C- F+ D D 20% 37% 43% A+ C C+ A- B+ F B- A+ A-
1.22 71% 60% 25% +9 -2 1.15 44% 1.3 .56 19% .40 70% .28 1.12 60% 50% 38% +7 -3 1.10 29% 0.9 .26 11% .26 50% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Richmond A F A+ A+ B 37% 10% 54% A A- A- F C A A+ A+ A+ D+ A- F+ B+ B+ 30% 43% 28% A+ A- F F F C B+ B+ A-
1.27 47% 50% 41% +3 +1 1.10 39% 0.9 .35 12% .50 81% .41 1.14 50% 45% 31% -1 -3 0.94 38% 1.4 .53 15% .27 71% .19
Jan
30		 Loyola Chicago A A- F C+ C+ 38% 13% 48% B B- B- B B B+ A+ B+ A+ D- B A+ F+ C+ 48% 12% 40% D C F+ F F C C+ C- C+
1.31 65% 29% 36% +3 +1 1.10 32% 1.2 .38 10% .47 83% .39 1.10 52% 17% 38% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.2 .44 19% .29 69% .20
Feb
3		 Fordham C- B- D+ B- B- 33% 31% 36% D+ C+ A- A- A F A+ F A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% D A+ B C- C+ F+ D+ F D
0.98 62% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 35% 1.2 .42 23% .57 61% .35 0.92 48% 27% 18% -15 +1 0.74 31% 1.0 .31 14% .25 79% .20
Feb
6		 Dayton A D- A+ F D 51% 12% 37% A+ C C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ A+ 56% 13% 31% D- A+ C C C B D A+ B+
1.20 48% 71% 29% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.6 .46 15% .54 82% .44 0.88 35% 29% 35% -13 +2 0.80 28% 1.2 .33 19% .45 60% .27
Feb
11		 La Salle B+ C+ C- A B 47% 17% 36% B- B A+ F+ B D A+ F B C+ A- A- A+ A+ 43% 25% 31% C A+ B+ F D- F C- D- D
1.17 59% 38% 41% +4 +1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 20% .36 58% .21 1.03 45% 31% 19% -14 0 0.73 29% 1.4 .39 9% .35 76% .27
Feb
14		 Richmond B- F+ A+ C+ B+ 15% 23% 62% D+ B D+ F+ D C+ A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 38% 21% 42% F+ A+ A+ F+ B+ D- F F F
1.12 50% 58% 34% +4 -2 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .36 81% .29 0.96 55% 18% 23% -12 0 0.77 16% 1.2 .19 11% .44 89% .39
Feb
17		 George Washington A+ C+ A+ B+ A- 38% 17% 45% C+ B+ D+ A+ B A+ A+ B A+ B B- A+ C A- 34% 6% 60% B- A- B- B B D+ C+ A+ B
1.30 61% 50% 38% +6 0 1.15 25% 1.4 .36 12% .58 74% .43 1.10 56% 0% 34% -3 +2 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 16% .30 65% .19
Feb
20		 Saint Louis C+ F F D F 43% 4% 53% A+ F+ A+ A A+ F A+ C+ A+ B+ C- F D C+ 58% 7% 35% D C D+ B+ C+ A- C A+ A-
0.97 30% 0% 29% -18 +3 0.72 38% 1.1 .40 21% .52 75% .39 1.13 64% 50% 40% +7 +3 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 21% .31 53% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.4 3.6 1st
2nd 0.7 10.9 44.3 40.4 96.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.9 10.9 44.5 43.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 7.7% 3.4    0.3 3.1
14-4 0.5% 0.2    0.2
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 3.6% 3.6 0.3 3.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 43.7% 51.3% 26.0% 25.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.8 15.0 0.4 21.3 34.1%
14-4 44.5% 38.3% 21.5% 16.9% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 14.4 0.9 27.5 21.5%
13-5 10.9% 29.5% 18.9% 10.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7 0.3 7.7 13.1%
12-6 0.9% 18.9% 13.5% 5.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 6.3%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 42.9% 23.1% 19.7% 10.8 57.1 25.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.4% 100.0% 10.3 0.1 0.7 4.0 13.3 31.5 49.5 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.3% 39.5% 10.9 0.1 0.6 5.0 32.7 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.9% 30.6% 10.9 0.0 0.5 3.4 25.7 0.9
Lose Out 0.2% 2.9% 11.0 2.9