Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.2 57
Expected Predictive Rating +11.0 55
Pace 68.1 193
Improvement -2.2 275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 74 B- B- B C+ C
Defense B 58 B C+ B- B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 185 B+ 65% 43 +2.6 91
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 235 D+ 35% 278 -0.5 205
Three Pointers 41% 185 B 37% 74 +1.5 132
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 197 B +3.6 70
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 78
Second Chance B- 32.8% 107 B- 1.11 67 B- 0.36 73
Turnovers B 15.0% 72
Freethrows C+ 0.32 143 B- 74% 123 C+ 0.24 121
Total Offense B- +4.7 74

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 82 C+ 10.1% 124
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 320 B- 3.3% 64
Three Pointers C 84% 185 B- 0.6% 108
Total C+ 58% 129 B- 4.8% 88

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 192 C+ 56% 127 -0.8 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 64 C- 40% 238 +1.8 319
Three Pointers 37% 284 A- 29% 12 -4.8 20
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 91 B -3.2 61
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 58
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 151 C 1.02 163 C+ 0.30 148
Turnovers B- 18.2% 97
Freethrows A- 0.23 16 C 72% 159 B+ 0.17 21
Total Defense B +4.6 58

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 51 C 11.2% 167
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 33 C- 4.2% 214
Three Pointers B 79% 185 D+ 0.6% 108
Total A- 45% 19 C 5.5% 185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 139 18.1 297
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 201 0.08 6
Improvement -1.3 #254 -1.0 #241

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21% 27% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20% 26% 11%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 19% 29% 2%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four13% 17% 8%
First Round13% 17% 6%
Second Round4% 5% 2%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 25 - 28 - 12
Quad 34 - 113 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 259 Charleston Southern W 98 - 67 94% +13  80% 1 - 0 A +22 B+ +9 C+ A+ B+ A +10 A- A- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 63 Providence W 107 - 101 OT 52% +0  37% 2 - 0 A- +15 B+ +8 A- A- B B +5 A C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 132 Saint Joseph's W 94 - 59 84% +20  97% 3 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +16 A+ B+ A+ A+ +15 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 177 Charlotte W 84 - 76 89% +8  98% 4 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +8 F+ B A+ D+ -4 B+ F+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 351 Bryant W 78 - 61 98% +5  62% 5 - 0 C +0 D+ -4 D+ A+ D+ B +4 D+ B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 97 Colorado St. W 66 - 64 65% +3  67% 6 - 0 B- +7 C- -2 B F B A +9 A+ D C-
 Thu, Nov 27 41 St. Mary's L 66 - 77 36% -8  0% 6 - 1 C+ +2 C +0 C- C- B C+ +1 D+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 45 Virginia Commonwealth L 68 - 86 41% -10  1% 6 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 C C D+ C- -2 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 94 @South Carolina W 86 - 83 OT 53% +4  78% 7 - 2 B+ +12 B +7 B A A B +4 C- A+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 104 George Mason W 73 - 62 77% +10  91% 8 - 2 B+ +12 B- +4 A- D- B A +9 A D- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 255 Western Carolina W 96 - 74 94% +15  98% 9 - 2 B+ +14 A- +11 A A C B- +2 C- B- B-
 Sun, Dec 14 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 53 98% +10  84% 10 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 A+ D- B+ A- +8 B+ B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 204 Elon W 82 - 81 OT 91% -6  10% 11 - 2 C- -5 C +1 D A+ D- D -6 D+ F A
 Wed, Dec 31 22 Virginia W 95 - 85 3OT 31% +2  58% 12 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +24 C+ +2 D- A B A+ +20 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 60 @Wake Forest L 78 - 81 39% -4  8% 12 - 3 1 - 1 B +9 C+ +3 B+ C+ F B+ +6 A+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 75 Stanford L 68 - 69 67% +5  90% 12 - 4 1 - 2 C+ +4 B +6 B- C- A C- -3 C D+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 71 California W 78 - 75 66% -2  25% 13 - 4 2 - 2 B +8 B+ +8 B B B- C+ +0 B- F A
 Wed, Jan 14 32 @SMU L 76 - 77 21% +0  51% 13 - 5 2 - 3 A- +17 B +7 B C+ A A +10 A- A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 83 Notre Dame W 89 - 76 70% +11  95% 14 - 5 3 - 3 A- +17 A +14 B+ A+ D+ B- +3 A- F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 70 @Syracuse W 76 - 74 43% -2  25% 15 - 5 4 - 3 B+ +13 B- +5 B- D- A A- +8 A B- A-
 Sat, Jan 24 12 @Louisville L 71 - 85 12% -9  3% 15 - 6 4 - 4 B +8 B- +4 A D+ C- B +4 A- F A
 Tue, Jan 27 141 Georgia Tech W 71 - 65 85% +5  74% 16 - 6 5 - 4 C+ +4 D -4 F B A A +8 B A B
 Sat, Jan 31 2 Duke L 58 - 72 13% -9  0% 16 - 7 5 - 5 B- +7 B +6 A C+ B+ C- -2 C+ F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 73 - 82 18% -8  4% 16 - 8 5 - 6 B +10 C+ +3 D+ A+ C A- +7 C A+ B
 Wed, Feb 11 38 @Clemson W 76 - 66 24% +4  71% 17 - 8 6 - 6 A+ +27 A+ +17 A+ A D+ A +10 A C- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 85 Florida St. L 69 - 92 70% -3  53% 17 - 9 6 - 7 F -19 C +1 B F A F -22 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 17 40 @Miami (FL) L 66 - 67 26% +1  57% 17 - 10 6 - 8 A- +15 B +6 A C B- A +9 A+ F C
 Sat, Feb 21 60 Wake Forest W 78 - 75 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 31 @North Carolina L 72 - 80 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 137 Boston College W 75 - 64 84%
 Sat, Mar 7 22 @Virginia L 66 - 77 15%
Totals 19 - 12 8 - 10 +9 B- +5 B B C B +5 B B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ D+ B B 38% 33% 41% C B- B- B- B- B C+ B- C+ B C+ C- A- B 38% 24% 37% B- B C+ C C+ B- A- C B+
1.15 65% 35% 37% +4 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 15% .32 74% .24 1.02 56% 40% 29% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 18% .23 72% .23
Nov
3		 Charleston Southern B+ A+ F C B- 32% 29% 39% D C+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B- C B- A A+ A+ F+ A- 38% 14% 48% C+ A- C- A+ A- C+ C+ C C+
1.26 70% 28% 33% +1 -2 1.00 41% 1.4 .57 9% .38 70% .27 0.86 41% 13% 39% -6 +1 0.91 29% 0.5 .16 19% .24 67% .16
Nov
8		 Providence B+ A- C+ A- A 38% 26% 36% C- A- C A+ A- B C D C- B B+ D B- A- 32% 26% 41% A+ A A- F C+ C+ C+ F D+
1.20 65% 39% 40% +6 -1 1.13 28% 1.4 .40 12% .28 68% .19 1.13 55% 44% 32% -1 -1 0.99 29% 1.3 .38 16% .33 88% .29
Nov
12		 Saint Joseph's A+ A+ F B A+ 44% 20% 36% A- A+ C+ A B+ A+ D F D- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% B+ A+ C C C A+ A+ D- A+
1.27 78% 25% 36% +7 +1 1.18 32% 1.3 .41 9% .18 58% .10 0.80 42% 45% 19% -14 0 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 26% .09 80% .07
Nov
16		 Charlotte B+ B F B- F+ 23% 23% 53% D- F+ A D+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ F B B 31% 29% 40% A+ B+ F C F+ F F A D+
1.27 64% 0% 36% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.1 .41 9% .60 83% .50 1.15 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 43% 0.9 .40 12% .41 63% .26
Nov
19		 Bryant D+ B A+ F D+ 50% 20% 30% C- D+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ F B- B F F A+ D 30% 21% 49% A- D+ A+ F B+ D+ D+ C D+
1.13 64% 50% 20% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.5 .55 14% .41 58% .24 0.88 79% 50% 17% -4 -1 0.94 13% 1.5 .19 20% .29 75% .22
Nov
26		 Colorado St. C- B+ B C B- 39% 15% 46% B+ B F F F B C+ A+ B+ A C- B- A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C+ A+ C F D C- A+ C+ A+
1.06 67% 43% 33% +4 +1 1.11 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 81% .24 1.03 63% 33% 15% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 18% .16 75% .12
Nov
27		 St. Mary's C B+ D F C 25% 31% 44% F+ C- A+ F C- B A+ A+ A+ C+ D F B+ C- 49% 16% 36% D- D+ D C+ D+ A+ D+ B- C-
0.97 62% 31% 26% -6 -2 0.85 39% 0.5 .20 13% .34 85% .29 1.14 64% 57% 31% +4 +1 1.13 41% 1.1 .44 22% .36 79% .28
Nov
28		 Virginia Commonwealth D+ C D- B- C+ 45% 27% 29% C- C D A+ C D+ A+ F C+ C- D- B F F 41% 22% 37% B+ F C+ A+ A+ A C A- B-
0.96 55% 31% 36% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.3 .29 18% .40 57% .23 1.22 67% 36% 58% +17 0 1.35 33% 0.5 .17 20% .39 68% .26
Dec
2		 South Carolina B A+ A- F B+ 37% 32% 32% D B F+ A+ A A B D C+ B F F+ B D 23% 29% 48% A+ C- A+ B- A+ F+ F+ B+ D
1.11 76% 44% 22% +3 -2 1.05 21% 2.0 .41 12% .31 67% .20 1.07 77% 50% 30% +5 -2 1.07 14% 1.0 .14 10% .40 75% .30
Dec
6		 George Mason B- A C B A 33% 21% 46% C+ A- C- F D- B C- B+ C A A+ C C- A 40% 17% 43% D+ A F B- D- A+ A F+ B+
1.13 71% 36% 38% +6 0 1.13 26% 0.6 .16 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 42% 38% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 25% .29 79% .23
Dec
11		 Western Carolina A- B- C- A+ A 35% 18% 47% C A A- B+ A C B+ F C B- A F+ F+ C- 41% 22% 37% C+ C- D A B- B- F A+ F
1.32 63% 40% 50% +13 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24 1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31
Dec
14		 Maryland Eastern Shore B A+ F A+ A+ 36% 21% 43% D+ A+ F A+ D- B+ F D- F A- A- F A+ A- 28% 20% 52% C B+ D A B- D+ C- A+ B-
1.26 79% 18% 48% +12 0 1.26 18% 1.6 .29 12% .23 69% .16 0.82 46% 78% 17% -9 -1 0.83 33% 0.7 .23 22% .24 58% .14
Dec
20		 Elon C D A- D+ D 43% 32% 26% D D A+ C+ A+ D- A+ D+ A+ D F A+ C D+ 49% 8% 43% D D+ F C F A A+ F A-
1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35 1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17
Dec
31		 Virginia C+ F+ F D+ D 25% 38% 37% F+ D- A A A B A+ D A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ D+ A
0.99 44% 25% 30% -11 -3 0.75 35% 1.1 .39 15% .50 68% .34 0.89 63% 13% 24% -10 +1 0.84 30% 0.8 .23 18% .19 73% .14
Jan
3		 Wake Forest C+ A- A+ C- A 19% 21% 60% F+ B+ C- B+ C+ F A+ C- A+ B+ F A- A+ A 35% 33% 32% A+ A+ D+ F F C A- F B-
1.05 67% 60% 32% +5 -1 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 26% .45 72% .33 1.09 70% 37% 17% -4 -2 0.89 34% 1.5 .50 15% .25 88% .22
Jan
7		 Stanford B B+ D B- B 28% 30% 43% D- B- A+ F C- A A+ C A+ C- C F C C 41% 9% 50% C C B F D+ D A+ D- A+
1.13 64% 33% 35% +1 -2 1.00 40% 0.6 .26 15% .49 76% .37 1.15 58% 50% 35% +2 +2 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 13% .17 78% .13
Jan
10		 California B+ A+ F F B- 44% 11% 44% B+ B A- D+ B B- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ C- B+ B 40% 21% 40% D B- F C F A D- F F
1.17 70% 20% 25% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.9 .33 15% .55 87% .47 1.12 63% 40% 32% +1 0 1.04 41% 1.1 .45 19% .39 90% .35
Jan
14		 SMU B A- B- C- B 36% 20% 44% B- B C+ C+ C+ A B F C A C+ F A+ A 41% 35% 24% B A- B+ A- A B- F A- F+
1.10 67% 40% 32% +2 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .31 14% .30 61% .19 1.11 60% 53% 25% +3 -2 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 16% .39 70% .27
Jan
17		 Notre Dame A D- A+ B- B+ 36% 18% 45% B- B+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B- F+ A- A A- 33% 25% 41% B- A- D+ F+ F+ B- D F+ F+
1.25 50% 63% 35% +2 0 1.07 35% 1.9 .65 17% .54 88% .47 1.07 71% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .36 76% .28
Jan
21		 Syracuse B- B B- F B- 48% 17% 35% B B- D- C- D- A A+ C- A+ A- A A+ F A+ 43% 17% 40% C- A B- C+ B- A- A F C+
1.08 59% 38% 25% -4 +1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 14% .60 72% .43 1.05 48% 11% 43% -4 +1 0.96 30% 1.0 .30 20% .25 86% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Louisville B- F F A+ A+ 20% 29% 51% D A C D- D+ C- F F F B B- F+ B A 48% 4% 48% D- A- D- F F A A C+ A
1.00 27% 25% 54% +5 -2 1.07 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 63% .09 1.20 60% 50% 32% 0 +3 1.08 41% 1.3 .54 21% .23 77% .18
Jan
27		 Georgia Tech D D F F F 31% 25% 44% C- F B- B- B A A+ C+ A+ A D C- A+ B 43% 28% 28% C+ B C A+ A B C C C
1.01 50% 15% 26% -13 -1 0.73 33% 1.1 .38 11% .42 73% .31 0.93 65% 38% 23% -1 -1 0.98 31% 0.8 .25 20% .30 71% .21
Jan
31		 Duke B A+ F C+ A+ 25% 27% 48% D+ A A+ F C+ B+ F+ A+ D C- F F A+ C 46% 17% 37% A- C+ D- D F D+ A+ C+ A+
1.01 91% 25% 33% +4 -2 1.07 34% 0.5 .19 17% .13 83% .11 1.25 76% 63% 24% +7 +1 1.17 44% 1.3 .59 14% .14 71% .10
Feb
7		 North Carolina St. C+ D+ B- F D- 50% 10% 40% A- D+ B+ A+ A+ C D A+ C+ A- D A+ F C 41% 18% 41% C+ C A+ B- A+ B F+ B+ D
1.01 52% 40% 25% -8 +2 0.90 32% 1.4 .46 21% .26 80% .21 1.13 67% 22% 43% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.2 .21 15% .39 71% .28
Feb
11		 Clemson A+ C+ F A+ A+ 50% 11% 39% A+ A+ D A+ A D+ D+ A+ B A A B C+ A+ 51% 17% 32% C- A B+ F C- C- B- A+ A-
1.17 57% 20% 50% +7 +2 1.20 17% 2.0 .35 20% .25 100% .25 1.02 50% 38% 33% -5 +1 0.96 24% 1.4 .33 14% .32 61% .20
Feb
14		 Florida St. C F D A+ B 43% 24% 33% C+ B D- F F A C A B- F C- F F F 46% 12% 42% D+ F A+ D A+ F B- B- B-
1.07 43% 33% 56% +3 0 1.08 23% 0.6 .13 15% .27 80% .22 1.42 63% 83% 55% +20 +2 1.46 17% 1.3 .22 8% .29 71% .20
Feb
17		 Miami (FL) B A- C A+ A 40% 22% 38% B- A C+ D+ C B- F C- F A D+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% A+ A+ B F F C A C- A
1.05 65% 36% 42% +7 0 1.16 26% 1.0 .26 18% .06 67% .04 1.07 65% 27% 20% -7 -1 0.86 35% 1.5 .51 16% .25 69% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.4 0.8 1.2 7th
8th 0.1 4.1 1.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 9.7 9.4 0.2 19.3 9th
10th 1.5 21.6 3.0 26.0 10th
11th 0.0 7.5 12.7 0.1 20.4 11th
12th 0.3 12.5 2.4 15.2 12th
13th 1.6 7.1 0.1 8.8 13th
14th 2.4 1.3 3.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 4.4 29.9 46.6 17.1 2.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 2.0% 71.6% 0.7% 70.9% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.6 71.4%
9-9 17.1% 48.6% 0.1% 48.5% 10.4 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.3 0.0 8.8 48.6%
8-10 46.6% 20.2% 0.2% 20.0% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 7.7 0.3 37.2 20.1%
7-11 29.9% 4.4% 0.1% 4.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 28.6 4.3%
6-12 4.4% 0.9% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.9%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.5% 0.1% 20.4% 10.6 79.5 20.4%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 90.5% 8.9 4.8 28.6 28.6 28.6
Lose Out 2.2%