Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.3 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +11.5 #52
Pace 69.1 #173
Improvement -0.7 #223

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #74 B- B- B B- C-
Defense #63 B C B- B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.34 #27 +1.9 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #146 0.69 #291 -0.2 #189
Three Pointers 42% #160 1.06 #111 +1.4 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #89 +3.1 #89
Freethrows 0.34 #93 73% #161 0.24 #100
Second Chance 33.4% #99 1.11 #75 0.37 #70
Turnovers 14.9% #57
Total Offense +4.5 #74

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.13 #131 +1.0 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #65 0.81 #268 -2.1 #328
Three Pointers 38% #273 0.83 #6 +5.3 #10
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #55 +4.2 #55
Freethrows 0.23 #15 73% #240 0.17 #21
Second Chance 31.0% #200 1.01 #158 0.31 #176
Turnovers 18.7% #79
Total Defense +4.7 #63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #239 -1.0% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.7% #73 -7.3% #54
Possession Length 16.8 #122 18.0 #292
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #205 0.08 #6
Improvement -1.2 #250 +0.4 #161

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.6% 43.7% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.4% 43.4% 21.6%
Average Seed 10.3 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.9% 72.9% 35.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four13.0% 16.6% 12.3%
First Round18.3% 33.8% 15.0%
Second Round5.9% 11.2% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 17.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 25 - 28 - 12
Quad 36 - 114 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 253 Charleston Southern W 98 - 67 94% +13  1 - 0 +23 +13 B- A+ B+ +7 B+ B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 64 Providence W 107 - 101 OT 52% +0  2 - 0 +15 +11 B+ A- B+ +2 A- C+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 128 Saint Joseph's W 94 - 59 83% +20  3 - 0 +34 +19 A+ B+ A+ +14 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 156 Charlotte W 84 - 76 87% +8  4 - 0 +5 +12 F+ B+ A+ -6 B+ D- F
 Wed, Nov 19 346 Bryant W 78 - 61 98% +5  5 - 0 +2 +0 C- A+ C +2 D+ B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 102 Colorado St. W 66 - 64 67% +3  6 - 0 +7 +1 B F B+ +6 A+ D+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 41 St. Mary's L 66 - 77 38% -8  6 - 1 +1 +2 C- C- B- -1 D+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 53 Virginia Commonwealth L 68 - 86 46% -10  6 - 2 -8 -2 C C C -6 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 87 @South Carolina W 86 - 83 OT 50% +4  7 - 2 +12 +9 B A A- +3 C A+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 86 George Mason W 73 - 62 72% +10  8 - 2 +14 +8 A- D B +7 A D A+
 Thu, Dec 11 276 Western Carolina W 96 - 74 95% +15  9 - 2 +12 +12 A- A- C -1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 14 347 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 53 98% +10  10 - 2 +14 +11 A+ D A- +5 B+ B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 194 Elon W 82 - 81 OT 90% -6  11 - 2 -4 +4 D A+ D -8 C- F A
 Wed, Dec 31 22 Virginia W 95 - 85 3OT 34% +2  12 - 2 1 - 0 +24 +2 D- A B +19 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 75 @Wake Forest L 78 - 81 44% -4  12 - 3 1 - 1 +8 +6 B+ C F +2 A F C
 Wed, Jan 7 82 Stanford L 68 - 69 70% +5  12 - 4 1 - 2 +3 +8 C+ C- A -6 C D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 65 California W 78 - 75 64% -2  13 - 4 2 - 2 +9 +12 B B B- -3 B- F A
 Wed, Jan 14 39 @SMU L 76 - 77 24% +0  13 - 5 2 - 3 +15 +9 B C+ A +6 A- A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 81 Notre Dame W 89 - 76 70% +11  14 - 5 3 - 3 +17 +17 B+ A+ D+ -0 B+ F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 68 @Syracuse W 76 - 74 42% -2  15 - 5 4 - 3 +13 +8 B- D+ A+ +5 A C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 16 @Louisville L 71 - 85 14% -9  15 - 6 4 - 4 +7 +6 A D+ C +1 B+ F A
 Tue, Jan 27 115 Georgia Tech W 71 - 65 80% +5  16 - 6 5 - 4 +6 -0 F B A +6 B A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 3 Duke L 58 - 72 15% -9  16 - 7 5 - 5 +7 +8 A C B+ -4 C+ F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 23 @North Carolina St. L 73 - 83 17%
 Wed, Feb 11 36 @Clemson L 64 - 72 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 101 Florida St. W 82 - 75 77%
 Tue, Feb 17 40 @Miami (FL) L 73 - 79 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 75 Wake Forest W 78 - 73 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 29 @North Carolina L 74 - 83 18%
 Tue, Mar 3 125 Boston College W 74 - 64 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 22 @Virginia L 68 - 78 17%
Totals 19 - 12 8 - 10 +9 +5 B- B- B +5 B C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 0.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 1.6 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 5.5 0.4 8.5 7th
8th 1.6 8.8 3.6 0.1 14.1 8th
9th 0.8 9.8 10.4 1.0 21.9 9th
10th 0.1 6.5 15.8 3.7 0.0 26.0 10th
11th 0.6 7.9 3.8 0.1 12.4 11th
12th 2.0 4.0 0.3 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 2.4 0.6 3.1 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 0.1 1.3 14th
15th 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.7 6.3 19.9 31.3 25.6 12.2 3.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 98.1% 1.9% 96.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
11-7 3.5% 81.4% 81.4% 9.4 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.6 81.4%
10-8 12.2% 66.5% 1.1% 65.4% 10.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 2.9 0.0 4.1 66.1%
9-9 25.6% 37.7% 0.5% 37.2% 10.5 0.2 0.7 2.8 5.9 0.1 15.9 37.4%
8-10 31.3% 12.5% 0.1% 12.4% 10.9 0.1 0.4 3.2 0.2 27.3 12.5%
7-11 19.9% 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 19.4 2.2%
6-12 6.3% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 6.3 0.5%
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.6% 0.3% 25.3% 10.3 74.4 25.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%