Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 59
Expected Predictive Rating +11.3 54
Pace 68.6 182
Improvement -2.5 286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 74 B- B- B- B- C
Defense B- 62 B- C+ B- B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 195 B+ 65% 46 +24.8 96
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 238 D+ 35% 285 +7.3 206
Three Pointers 41% 187 B- 36% 76 +22.4 127
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 201 B +3.4 72
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 83
Second Chance B- 33.0% 103 B 1.12 63 B- 0.37 70
Turnovers B- 15.1% 75
Freethrows C+ 0.33 121 C+ 74% 122 B- 0.24 113
Total Offense B- +4.7 74

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 177 C+ 56% 133 +21.9 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 70 D+ 40% 268 +9.8 43
Three Pointers 37% 289 A- 29% 18 +16.3 346
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 97 B- -2.7 71
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 72
Second Chance C+ 29.7% 153 C+ 1.00 135 C+ 0.30 135
Turnovers B- 18.3% 96
Freethrows B+ 0.24 18 C+ 72% 149 B+ 0.17 25
Total Defense B- +4.1 62

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 136 18.0 285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 222 0.08 5
Improvement -1.0 #249 -1.5 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23% 42% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23% 42% 16%
Average Seed 10.5 10.2 10.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 29% 66% 17%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four13% 19% 11%
First Round15% 31% 10%
Second Round4% 9% 2%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 25 - 28 - 12
Quad 35 - 113 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 255 Charleston Southern W 98 - 67 94% +13  80% 1 - 0 A +23 B+ +9 C+ A+ B+ A +11 A- A C
 Sat, Nov 8 60 Providence W 107 - 101 OT 50% +0  37% 2 - 0 A- +15 B+ +9 A- A- B B +5 A C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 136 Saint Joseph's W 94 - 59 83% +20  97% 3 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +16 A+ B+ A+ A+ +16 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 16 170 Charlotte W 84 - 76 88% +8  98% 4 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 F+ B A+ D+ -4 B+ F+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 351 Bryant W 78 - 61 98% +5  62% 5 - 0 C +1 D+ -4 D+ A+ D+ B +5 D+ B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 100 Colorado St. W 66 - 64 64% +3  67% 6 - 0 B- +7 C- -1 B F B+ A- +8 A+ D C-
 Thu, Nov 27 41 St. Mary's L 66 - 77 34% -8  0% 6 - 1 C+ +2 C +0 C- C- B C+ +2 D+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 68 - 86 41% -10  1% 6 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -4 C C D+ C- -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 94 @South Carolina W 86 - 83 OT 52% +4  78% 7 - 2 B+ +11 B +7 B A A B +5 C- A+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 101 George Mason W 73 - 62 74% +10  91% 8 - 2 B+ +13 B- +5 A D- B A- +9 A- D A+
 Thu, Dec 11 259 Western Carolina W 96 - 74 94% +15  98% 9 - 2 B+ +13 A- +10 A A C C+ +2 C- B- B-
 Sun, Dec 14 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 53 98% +10  84% 10 - 2 B+ +13 B+ +8 A+ D B+ B+ +8 B+ C+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 206 Elon W 82 - 81 OT 91% -6  10% 11 - 2 C- -5 C +1 D A+ D- D -6 D+ F A
 Wed, Dec 31 23 Virginia W 95 - 85 3OT 32% +2  58% 12 - 2 1 - 0 A+ +24 C +1 D- A+ B A+ +20 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 62 @Wake Forest L 78 - 81 39% -4  8% 12 - 3 1 - 1 B +9 B- +4 B+ C+ F B +5 A F C
 Wed, Jan 7 76 Stanford L 68 - 69 66% +5  90% 12 - 4 1 - 2 C+ +4 B +6 B- C- A C- -3 C D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 70 California W 78 - 75 65% -2  25% 13 - 4 2 - 2 B +8 B+ +8 B B B- C +0 B- F A
 Wed, Jan 14 36 @SMU L 76 - 77 22% +0  51% 13 - 5 2 - 3 A- +16 B +6 B B- A- A- +10 A- A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 82 Notre Dame W 89 - 76 68% +11  95% 14 - 5 3 - 3 A- +17 A +14 B+ A+ D+ B- +3 A- F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 21 64 @Syracuse W 76 - 74 40% -2  25% 15 - 5 4 - 3 B+ +13 B- +5 B D A A- +8 A B- A-
 Sat, Jan 24 10 @Louisville L 71 - 85 10% -9  3% 15 - 6 4 - 4 B +9 B- +4 A D+ C- B +5 A- F A
 Tue, Jan 27 137 Georgia Tech W 71 - 65 84% +5  74% 16 - 6 5 - 4 C+ +4 D -4 F B A A- +9 B A B
 Sat, Jan 31 3 Duke L 58 - 72 14% -9  0% 16 - 7 5 - 5 B- +7 B +6 A C+ B+ C- -2 C+ F D
 Sat, Feb 7 29 @North Carolina St. L 73 - 82 19% -8  4% 16 - 8 5 - 6 B +9 C+ +2 D A+ C B+ +7 C A+ B
 Wed, Feb 11 37 @Clemson W 76 - 66 22% +4  71% 17 - 8 6 - 6 A+ +27 A+ +18 A+ A D+ A +10 A C- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 86 Florida St. L 69 - 92 69% -3  53% 17 - 9 6 - 7 F -19 C +1 B F A F -22 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 17 40 @Miami (FL) L 73 - 80 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 62 Wake Forest W 77 - 74 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 25 @North Carolina L 72 - 82 18%
 Tue, Mar 3 133 Boston College W 74 - 64 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 23 @Virginia L 66 - 77 15%
Totals 19 - 12 8 - 10 +9 F +5 A+ B C B- +4 B- C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ D+ B- B 38% 33% 41% C B- B- B B- B- C+ C+ B- B- C+ D+ A- B- 39% 24% 37% B- B- C+ C+ C+ B- B+ C+ B+
1.15 65% 35% 36% +3 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 15% .33 74% .24 1.03 56% 40% 29% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.0 .30 18% .24 72% .23
Nov
3		 Charleston Southern B+ A+ F C- B- 32% 29% 39% D C+ A A+ A+ B+ C+ C C+ A A+ A+ F+ A- 38% 14% 48% C+ A- C A+ A C C+ C- C+
1.26 70% 28% 33% +1 -2 1.00 41% 1.4 .57 9% .38 70% .27 0.86 41% 13% 39% -6 +1 0.91 29% 0.5 .16 19% .24 67% .16
Nov
8		 Providence B+ A- C+ A- A 38% 26% 36% C- A- C A+ A- B C D C- B B+ D B- A- 32% 26% 41% A+ A A- F C+ C+ C+ F D+
1.20 65% 39% 40% +6 -1 1.13 28% 1.4 .40 12% .28 68% .19 1.13 55% 44% 32% -1 -1 0.99 29% 1.3 .38 16% .33 88% .29
Nov
12		 Saint Joseph's A+ A+ F B A+ 44% 20% 36% B+ A+ C+ A B+ A+ D F D- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% B+ A+ C C C A+ A+ D- A+
1.27 78% 25% 36% +7 +1 1.18 32% 1.3 .41 9% .18 58% .10 0.80 42% 45% 19% -14 0 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 26% .09 80% .07
Nov
16		 Charlotte B+ B F B- F+ 23% 23% 53% D- F+ A D+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ F B B- 31% 29% 40% A+ B+ F C- F+ F F+ A C-
1.27 64% 0% 36% -6 -1 0.87 39% 1.1 .41 9% .60 83% .50 1.15 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 43% 0.9 .40 12% .41 63% .26
Nov
19		 Bryant D+ B A+ F D+ 50% 20% 30% C- D+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ F B- B F F A+ D 30% 21% 49% A- D+ A+ F B+ D+ D+ C D+
1.13 64% 50% 20% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.5 .55 14% .41 58% .24 0.88 79% 50% 17% -3 -1 0.94 13% 1.5 .19 20% .29 75% .22
Nov
26		 Colorado St. C- B+ B- C B- 39% 15% 46% B+ B F F F B+ C+ A+ B+ A- C- B- A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C A+ C F D C- A+ C+ A+
1.06 67% 43% 33% +4 +1 1.11 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 81% .24 1.03 63% 33% 15% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 18% .16 75% .12
Nov
27		 St. Mary's C B+ D F C 25% 31% 44% F+ C- A+ F C- B A+ A+ A+ C+ D F B+ C- 49% 16% 36% D- D+ D C D+ A+ D+ B- C-
0.97 62% 31% 26% -6 -2 0.85 39% 0.5 .20 13% .34 85% .29 1.14 64% 57% 31% +4 +1 1.13 41% 1.1 .44 22% .36 79% .28
Nov
28		 Virginia Commonwealth D+ C F+ B- C+ 45% 27% 29% C- C D- A+ C D+ A+ F C+ C- D- B F F 41% 22% 37% B+ F C+ A+ A+ A C- A- C+
0.96 55% 31% 36% -3 0 0.96 24% 1.3 .29 18% .40 57% .23 1.22 67% 36% 58% +17 0 1.35 33% 0.5 .17 20% .39 68% .26
Dec
2		 South Carolina B A+ B+ F B+ 37% 32% 32% D B F+ A+ A A B- D C+ B F F+ B D 23% 29% 48% A+ C- A+ C+ A+ F+ F+ B+ D
1.11 76% 44% 22% +3 -2 1.05 21% 2.0 .41 12% .31 67% .20 1.07 77% 50% 30% +5 -2 1.07 14% 1.0 .14 10% .40 75% .30
Dec
6		 George Mason B- A C+ B+ A 33% 21% 46% C+ A C- F D- B C- B+ C A- A+ C C- A 40% 17% 43% D+ A- F B- D A+ A F+ B+
1.13 71% 36% 38% +6 0 1.13 26% 0.6 .16 14% .23 77% .18 0.96 42% 38% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 0.9 .38 25% .29 79% .23
Dec
11		 Western Carolina A- B- C A+ A 35% 18% 47% C A A- B+ A C B+ F C C+ A F+ F+ C- 41% 22% 37% C+ C- D+ A- B- B- F A F
1.32 63% 40% 50% +14 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24 1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31
Dec
14		 Maryland Eastern Shore B+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 21% 43% D+ A+ F A+ D B+ F D- F B+ A- F A+ B+ 28% 20% 52% C B+ D A C+ D+ C- A+ B-
1.26 79% 18% 48% +12 0 1.26 18% 1.6 .29 12% .23 69% .16 0.82 46% 78% 17% -9 -1 0.83 33% 0.7 .23 22% .24 58% .14
Dec
20		 Elon C D A- D+ D+ 43% 32% 26% D D A+ C+ A+ D- A+ D+ A+ D F A+ C D+ 49% 8% 43% D D+ F C F A A+ F A-
1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35 1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17
Dec
31		 Virginia C F+ F D+ D 25% 38% 37% F+ D- A A A+ B A+ D A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ D+ A+
0.99 44% 25% 30% -10 -3 0.75 35% 1.1 .39 15% .50 68% .34 0.89 63% 13% 24% -10 +1 0.84 30% 0.8 .23 18% .19 73% .14
Jan
3		 Wake Forest B- A- A+ C- A 19% 21% 60% F+ B+ C- B C+ F A+ C- A+ B F B+ A+ A 35% 33% 32% A+ A D+ F F C A- F B-
1.05 67% 60% 32% +5 -1 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 26% .45 72% .33 1.09 70% 37% 17% -4 -2 0.89 34% 1.5 .50 15% .25 88% .22
Jan
7		 Stanford B B+ D B- B 28% 30% 43% D- B- A+ F C- A A+ C A+ C- C F C C 41% 9% 50% C C B F D+ D+ A+ D- A+
1.13 64% 33% 35% +1 -2 1.00 40% 0.6 .26 15% .49 76% .37 1.15 58% 50% 35% +2 +2 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 13% .17 78% .13
Jan
10		 California B+ A+ F F B- 44% 11% 44% B+ B A- D+ B B- A+ A+ A+ C D+ C- B+ B 40% 21% 40% D B- F C F A D- F F
1.17 70% 20% 25% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.9 .33 15% .55 87% .47 1.12 63% 40% 32% +1 0 1.04 41% 1.1 .45 19% .39 90% .35
Jan
14		 SMU B A- B- C- B 36% 20% 44% B- B C+ B- B- A- B F C A- C+ F A+ A- 41% 35% 24% B+ A- A- A- A B- F A- D-
1.10 67% 40% 32% +2 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .31 14% .30 61% .19 1.11 60% 53% 25% +3 -2 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 16% .39 70% .27
Jan
17		 Notre Dame A D- A+ B- B+ 36% 18% 45% B- B+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B- F+ A- A A- 33% 25% 41% B- A- D+ F+ F+ B- D F+ F+
1.25 50% 63% 35% +2 0 1.07 35% 1.9 .65 17% .54 88% .47 1.07 71% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .36 76% .28
Jan
21		 Syracuse B- B B- F B- 48% 17% 35% B B D- C D A A+ C- A+ A- A A+ F A+ 43% 17% 40% C- A B- C+ B- A- A F C+
1.08 59% 38% 25% -4 +1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 14% .60 72% .43 1.05 48% 11% 43% -4 +1 0.96 30% 1.0 .30 20% .25 86% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Louisville B- F F+ A+ A+ 20% 29% 51% D A C- D- D+ C- F F F B B- F+ B A+ 48% 4% 48% D- A- D- F F A A C+ A
1.00 27% 25% 54% +5 -2 1.07 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 63% .09 1.20 60% 50% 32% 0 +3 1.08 41% 1.3 .54 21% .23 77% .18
Jan
27		 Georgia Tech D D F F F 31% 25% 44% C- F B B- B A A+ C+ A+ A- D C- A+ B 43% 28% 28% C+ B C+ A+ A B C C- C
1.01 50% 15% 26% -13 -1 0.73 33% 1.1 .38 11% .42 73% .31 0.93 65% 38% 23% -1 -1 0.98 31% 0.8 .25 20% .30 71% .21
Jan
31		 Duke B A+ F C+ A+ 25% 27% 48% D+ A A+ F C+ B+ F+ A+ D C- F F A+ C 46% 17% 37% B+ C+ D- D- F D A+ C+ A+
1.01 91% 25% 33% +4 -2 1.07 34% 0.5 .19 17% .13 83% .11 1.25 76% 63% 24% +7 +1 1.17 44% 1.3 .59 14% .14 71% .10
Feb
7		 North Carolina St. C+ D+ B- F D- 50% 10% 40% A- D B+ A+ A+ C D A+ C+ B+ D A+ F C 41% 18% 41% C+ C A+ C+ A+ B F+ A- D
1.01 52% 40% 25% -8 +2 0.90 32% 1.4 .46 21% .26 80% .21 1.13 67% 22% 43% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.2 .21 15% .39 71% .28
Feb
11		 Clemson A+ C+ F A+ A+ 50% 11% 39% A+ A+ D A+ A D+ D+ A+ B+ A A B C+ A+ 51% 17% 32% C- A B+ F C- C- B- A+ A-
1.17 57% 20% 50% +7 +2 1.20 17% 2.0 .35 20% .25 100% .25 1.02 50% 38% 33% -4 +1 0.96 24% 1.4 .33 14% .32 61% .20
Feb
14		 Florida St. C F D A+ B 43% 24% 33% C+ B D- F F A C A B- F C- F F F 46% 12% 42% D+ F A+ D A+ F C+ C+ C+
1.07 43% 33% 56% +3 0 1.08 23% 0.6 .13 15% .27 80% .22 1.42 63% 83% 55% +20 +2 1.46 17% 1.3 .22 8% .29 71% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 6th
7th 0.7 2.3 0.1 3.1 7th
8th 0.6 5.8 2.3 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.2 11.0 12.7 0.6 24.4 9th
10th 2.5 20.0 3.2 0.0 25.8 10th
11th 0.1 8.3 9.1 0.2 17.6 11th
12th 0.6 9.6 1.4 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 1.6 4.0 0.1 5.7 13th
14th 1.7 0.6 2.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 4.1 25.1 42.0 22.6 5.7 0.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.5% 92.3% 0.7% 91.6% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.3%
10-8 5.7% 69.4% 0.4% 68.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 0.9 1.7 69.2%
9-9 22.6% 44.0% 0.2% 43.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.7 0.0 12.6 44.0%
8-10 42.0% 17.3% 0.1% 17.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 6.0 0.2 34.8 17.2%
7-11 25.1% 4.1% 0.1% 4.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.1 24.1 4.0%
6-12 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 4.1 0.2%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.6% 0.1% 22.5% 10.5 77.4 22.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%