North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.9 24
Expected Predictive Rating +14.1 39
Pace 71.7 99
Improvement -0.8 214

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense A- 21 A- B A B- B-
Defense B+ 38 B- B A- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 B 64% 52 +3.8 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 277 C- 37% 218 -2.2 289
Three Pointers 44% 120 A- 39% 11 +5.3 31
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 74 B+ +5.8 28
1st FG Attempt A- 1.16 26
Second Chance C 30.3% 187 A 1.26 6 B 0.38 52
Turnovers A 12.6% 9
Freethrows C+ 0.32 126 B 77% 42 B- 0.25 82
Total Offense A- +9.9 21

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 137 A- 6.7% 17
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 201 B+ 2.5% 32
Three Pointers C+ 87% 136 C+ 0.7% 144
Total B- 60% 80 A- 3.4% 12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 260 B 52% 47 -3.5 68
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 328 B 34% 54 -2.6 13
Three Pointers 49% 16 C+ 33% 125 +3.1 313
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 261 B -3.4 55
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 80
Second Chance B 26.5% 52 B- 0.96 86 B 0.26 47
Turnovers A- 20.8% 16
Freethrows C 0.30 180 A- 68% 15 C+ 0.20 113
Total Defense B+ +6.1 38

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 29 B- 13.9% 70
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 70 B 8.0% 45
Three Pointers B+ 78% 36 D+ 0.5% 247
Total B- 52% 106 C+ 6.5% 105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.4 29 18.6 337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 61 0.17 167
Improvement -0.5 #213 -0.4 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 33 25 19
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 14 - 4
Conference Finish 6 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed 10 7 5
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Elite 8

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 3% 7% 1%
Top 6 Seed 32% 51% 21%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98% 99% 97%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97% 99% 97%
Average Seed 7.1 6.4 7.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round98% 99% 97%
Second Round62% 69% 59%
Sweet Sixteen19% 25% 16%
Elite Eight7% 9% 6%
Final Four2% 3% 2%
Championship Game1% 1% 1%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 29 - 214 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 44 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 350 NC Central W 114 - 65 99% +28  99% 1 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +26 A+ A+ A B +5 C- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 123 UAB W 94 - 70 93% +11  85% 2 - 0 A+ +24 A +14 A+ A+ D A +8 B+ C A+
 Wed, Nov 12 300 UNC Greensboro W 110 - 64 99% +15  90% 3 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +20 B+ A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ B A+
 Mon, Nov 17 48 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 79 77% +4  93% 4 - 0 B+ +14 B+ +8 B- A+ F B+ +6 B B C+
 Mon, Nov 24 56 Seton Hall L 74 - 85 71% -8  3% 4 - 1 C -1 B- +5 B D A+ D -5 D F B+
 Tue, Nov 25 65 Boise St. W 81 - 70 76% +5  82% 5 - 1 A +20 B+ +9 A+ F+ B- A +11 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 27 Texas L 97 - 102 52% -4  14% 5 - 2 B +10 A+ +22 A+ A+ A+ F -12 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 33 @Auburn L 73 - 83 44% -5  14% 5 - 3 B- +8 C+ +2 C+ F A+ B+ +6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 226 UNC Asheville W 75 - 63 97% +3  66% 6 - 3 B- +5 C +0 C- A+ D+ B+ +6 B+ C+ B+
 Wed, Dec 10 100 Liberty W 85 - 45 90% +25  97% 7 - 3 A+ +42 A- +11 A F A+ A+ +33 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 15 Kansas L 76 - 77 OT 50% -1  35% 7 - 4 A- +15 B- +5 B C- A+ A +10 B A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 297 Texas Southern W 108 - 72 98% +24  98% 8 - 4 A+ +25 A+ +26 A A+ A+ C -1 A- F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 73 Mississippi W 76 - 62 78% +15  93% 9 - 4 A +22 B- +5 A B+ F A+ +17 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 61 Wake Forest W 70 - 57 82% +7  73% 10 - 4 1 - 0 A +19 D -5 C F C- A+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 22 Virginia L 61 - 76 56% -13  0% 10 - 5 1 - 1 C -1 C- -1 D C B- C -1 D+ D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 135 @Boston College W 79 - 71 86% +7  93% 11 - 5 2 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +22 A A+ A+ D- -8 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 86 @Florida St. W 113 - 69 72% +24  99% 12 - 5 3 - 1 A+ +54 A+ +31 A+ A+ A+ A+ +18 A+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 141 Georgia Tech L 74 - 78 94% -1  39% 12 - 6 3 - 2 D+ -6 D -5 C- F+ A- C -1 F C+ A
 Tue, Jan 20 38 @Clemson W 80 - 76 OT 48% +3  65% 13 - 6 4 - 2 A +21 A +13 A- D- A+ A- +7 B- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 101 @Pittsburgh W 81 - 72 77% -1  32% 14 - 6 5 - 2 A- +17 A +12 B- C A+ B+ +5 A+ F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 70 Syracuse W 88 - 68 84% +7  100% 15 - 6 6 - 2 A+ +25 A +14 A+ A- B+ A +11 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 31 61 @Wake Forest W 96 - 78 64% +11  93% 16 - 6 7 - 2 A+ +30 A+ +26 A+ B+ A+ B +4 B- B D+
 Tue, Feb 3 32 @SMU W 84 - 83 43% -1  37% 17 - 6 8 - 2 A +19 A +14 A B- A+ B +5 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 59 Virginia Tech W 82 - 73 82% +8  94% 18 - 6 9 - 2 A- +15 B +7 A+ D- B+ A- +8 A F+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 12 @Louisville L 77 - 118 27% -21  0% 18 - 7 9 - 3 F -19 C +1 C- C A F -14 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 40 Miami (FL) L 76 - 77 71% +1  54% 18 - 8 9 - 4 B +9 A +11 A- A- A- C- -2 A F D+
 Tue, Feb 17 30 North Carolina W 82 - 58 66% +13  95% 19 - 8 10 - 4 A+ +36 A+ +18 B+ A+ A+ A+ +20 A+ A A+
 Tue, Feb 24 22 @Virginia L 73 - 77 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 84 @Notre Dame W 79 - 73 72%
 Mon, Mar 2 2 Duke L 73 - 78 31%
 Sat, Mar 7 75 Stanford W 83 - 72 85%
Totals 21 - 10 12 - 6 +16 A- +10 A+ B+ B- B+ +6 A- B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B C- A- B+ 41% 29% 44% B- A- C A B A C+ B B- B+ B B C+ B 36% 15% 49% D+ B- B B- B A- C A- C+
1.23 64% 37% 39% +6 +1 1.16 30% 1.3 .38 13% .32 77% .25 1.00 52% 34% 33% -3 0 0.96 27% 1.0 .26 21% .30 68% .22
Nov
3
NC Central A+ A+ F A+ A+ 26% 9% 64% C A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ B D- B- A- C- 37% 21% 42% C- C- A F C+ A+ F A+ F
1.57 93% 20% 44% +17 +1 1.38 45% 1.4 .65 12% .47 70% .33 0.89 63% 33% 28% -3 0 0.95 21% 1.1 .24 25% .51 64% .33
Nov
7
UAB A A+ A+ C+ A+ 38% 12% 50% B+ A+ A A+ A+ D A+ A A+ A B F A+ A- 45% 19% 36% D B+ F+ A C A+ A A+ A+
1.26 80% 50% 35% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 19% .36 82% .30 0.94 54% 55% 14% -9 +1 0.84 39% 0.8 .32 19% .23 57% .13
Nov
12
UNC Greensboro A+ B D- A+ B 38% 15% 48% B- B+ D A+ A+ A+ B+ A A A+ A+ C A+ A+ 26% 21% 54% C+ A+ A D- B A+ F A- F
1.48 65% 33% 45% +10 +1 1.23 26% 2.0 .53 5% .33 78% .26 0.86 40% 38% 24% -13 -1 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 22% .70 63% .45
Nov
17
Virginia Commonwealth B+ F A+ B B- 36% 22% 42% D+ B- A+ B A+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ C- A+ C+ B 23% 7% 70% B- B A- D+ B C+ A A A+
1.15 44% 50% 37% -1 0 1.00 42% 1.1 .45 23% .58 82% .48 1.07 62% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 28% 1.2 .33 16% .29 67% .19
Nov
24
Seton Hall B- F+ A+ C B 40% 13% 46% B- B D- C D A+ C+ C+ C+ D D D B D+ 45% 14% 41% D- D A+ F F B+ F+ F F
1.00 43% 71% 33% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.9 .21 18% .36 73% .26 1.15 64% 43% 30% +1 +1 1.06 25% 1.9 .46 19% .40 83% .33
Nov
25
Boise St. B+ B A A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% B A+ C+ F F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A A F C- B- 24% 9% 67% B- B- C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.16 63% 50% 45% +11 0 1.24 23% 0.6 .13 14% .38 78% .30 1.00 45% 50% 37% +1 +1 1.04 33% 0.5 .16 21% .58 66% .38
Nov
26
Texas A+ A+ F A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% B- A+ C A+ A+ A+ A C A F D+ F F F 26% 11% 64% C- F A+ F C+ F F F F
1.35 71% 21% 47% +7 0 1.16 24% 1.8 .42 8% .42 71% .30 1.42 67% 60% 47% +17 0 1.36 23% 2.0 .46 10% .51 85% .43
Dec
3
Auburn C+ B+ D D+ C 34% 16% 50% B- C+ D- F F A+ F+ A+ D+ B+ F A+ F F 40% 10% 50% D+ F A+ B- A+ A+ D F F
1.04 63% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 21% 0.6 .13 13% .21 85% .18 1.18 75% 25% 55% +21 +1 1.48 26% 1.0 .26 28% .44 86% .38
Dec
6
UNC Asheville C A F+ F D 48% 12% 40% B C- D+ A+ A+ D+ D A+ C+ B+ A+ A- F+ B 13% 46% 42% A+ B+ A- D- C+ B+ C F D+
1.11 71% 33% 20% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.7 .47 18% .27 80% .22 0.93 33% 32% 40% -2 -5 0.88 24% 1.1 .26 21% .32 76% .24
Dec
10
Liberty A- A F A A 46% 13% 41% A- A D F F A+ A D- B+ A+ A- A+ A+ 43% 0% 57% D+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.26 68% 29% 41% +8 +2 1.20 26% 0.9 .24 12% .32 68% .22 0.67 52% 21% -13 +3 0.82 15% 0.3 .05 25% .20 30% .06
Dec
13
Kansas B- B D F+ B- 37% 15% 48% B+ B C- C- C- A+ C+ A B- A B- A D+ B+ 33% 18% 49% C- B A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.01 58% 30% 26% -7 +1 0.89 23% 0.8 .19 9% .22 73% .16 1.03 60% 27% 37% +1 0 1.03 23% 0.8 .19 11% .15 60% .09
Dec
17
Texas Southern A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 11% 58% C- A A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C B C A+ A+ 43% 15% 43% F A- F D+ F C+ D- D- F+
1.52 56% 67% 45% +13 +1 1.28 49% 1.2 .60 10% .42 85% .36 1.01 52% 38% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 1.1 .40 18% .34 75% .26
Dec
21
Mississippi B- A+ F C+ A 29% 14% 57% B A D- A+ B+ F F F F A+ F B- B+ B+ 19% 23% 57% D B A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A C+
1.09 87% 14% 34% +6 0 1.14 23% 1.7 .40 23% .24 54% .13 0.89 78% 36% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 0.6 .11 21% .33 67% .22
Dec
31
Wake Forest D A- F F C 46% 15% 38% B C C- F F C- C- A B- A+ A+ D- A- A+ 37% 8% 55% F+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A A A+
0.98 67% 25% 25% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.6 .17 21% .30 82% .25 0.80 42% 50% 29% -9 +2 0.86 25% 0.4 .10 22% .23 69% .16
Jan
3
Virginia C- B- F F D 32% 30% 39% C- D D A+ C B- A+ A A+ C C+ F C- D 27% 9% 64% C+ D+ A- F D+ A+ C+ D+ C
0.95 57% 23% 24% -11 -2 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .46 80% .37 1.18 58% 100% 36% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.4 .50 22% .30 73% .22
Jan
6
Boston College A+ F B- A+ A 42% 20% 38% B- A B+ A+ A+ A+ F F F D- D- B+ F F 45% 16% 39% F F F B D A+ F F F
1.30 33% 40% 58% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.5 .51 7% .21 50% .11 1.17 65% 33% 53% +14 +1 1.32 40% 0.9 .36 26% .49 73% .36
Jan
10
Florida St. A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 22% 29% 49% F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A A A+ B A+ A+ A+ 47% 8% 45% D- A+ A+ F C- B+ F B F
1.46 77% 35% 55% +19 -2 1.36 37% 1.8 .67 12% .34 78% .26 0.89 54% 0% 22% -13 +2 0.80 15% 2.5 .38 17% .45 69% .31
Jan
17
Georgia Tech D D- F B D+ 39% 11% 50% A C- F D+ F+ A- A+ F B+ C B- F F F 43% 15% 43% F+ F A F C+ A F A+ D
1.00 48% 0% 37% -6 +1 0.93 20% 1.0 .20 12% .38 64% .25 1.05 55% 57% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.4 .33 23% .49 50% .25
Jan
20
Clemson A B+ F B B+ 40% 17% 42% B+ A- D F D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- D+ A+ C B- 36% 9% 55% C- B- B- D+ C+ A- D- A+ C
1.12 62% 22% 36% 0 +1 1.04 17% 0.7 .11 10% .39 88% .34 1.06 65% 25% 35% +2 +1 1.09 27% 1.1 .30 18% .41 63% .26
Jan
24
Pittsburgh A B F B B- 42% 21% 37% C B- C- B- C A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ 37% 20% 43% B- A+ F B F A- F A+ C-
1.19 64% 27% 37% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.0 .24 12% .45 81% .37 1.06 42% 20% 32% -11 0 0.80 53% 0.9 .49 21% .46 44% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27
Syracuse A A+ A+ D A+ 50% 12% 38% A- A+ A+ D- A- B+ C+ A+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 18% 36% D+ A+ C- F+ D- C A- A+ A
1.26 69% 50% 30% +5 +2 1.15 45% 1.0 .45 16% .30 83% .25 0.97 46% 20% 25% -14 +1 0.77 33% 1.2 .40 16% .27 56% .15
Jan
31
Wake Forest A+ F A+ A+ A+ 38% 13% 49% B- A+ D A+ B+ A+ C- B C B A- F C- B- 37% 22% 41% B- B- A+ F B D+ F F F
1.38 43% 57% 56% +13 +1 1.29 24% 1.6 .38 12% .29 78% .23 1.12 50% 55% 35% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.8 .32 13% .40 88% .35
Feb
3
SMU A D- D+ A+ A- 29% 11% 60% B+ A D- A+ B- A+ B+ F C+ B B+ A F C 48% 16% 36% F D+ B+ A+ A+ C A A+ A+
1.20 50% 33% 42% +5 +1 1.13 23% 1.4 .31 10% .32 60% .19 1.18 54% 33% 57% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.5 .16 14% .20 58% .12
Feb
7
Virginia Tech B A- F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% B A+ F A- D- B+ A+ C- A+ A- A- D+ A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% F A C F F+ A+ B+ F+ B-
1.13 67% 22% 43% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.2 .21 15% .39 71% .28 1.01 52% 40% 25% -8 +2 0.90 32% 1.4 .46 21% .26 80% .21
Feb
9
Louisville C A+ F F D+ 38% 30% 32% C+ C- F A+ C A C- A+ B+ F D F+ F F 44% 7% 49% C- F A A+ A+ D- F+ D F
0.96 75% 21% 15% -8 -1 0.84 15% 1.5 .23 12% .27 89% .24 1.47 69% 50% 62% +26 +2 1.59 27% 0.3 .07 12% .38 81% .31
Feb
14
Miami (FL) A B- A- A- A- 35% 18% 47% B- A- B A A- A- B- A+ A C- B- B+ A+ A+ 61% 18% 22% D A F C- F D+ C- A+ A-
1.17 59% 44% 39% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.3 .36 15% .27 87% .24 1.19 58% 33% 18% -6 +2 0.94 49% 1.1 .54 14% .36 50% .18
Feb
17
North Carolina A+ F A+ A+ B 49% 18% 33% A B+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ C- B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 9% 59% D A+ D- A+ A A+ D- C- D-
1.28 41% 50% 44% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 6% .27 69% .18 0.90 60% 0% 19% -16 +1 0.72 40% 0.7 .28 19% .40 71% .29




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 5.5 6.3 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.8 20.3 0.8 27.9 3rd
4th 0.7 21.3 4.7 26.6 4th
5th 0.0 6.5 12.4 0.3 19.2 5th
6th 0.6 8.8 0.8 10.2 6th
7th 1.1 2.2 3.3 7th
8th 0.6 0.2 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.3 18.4 41.3 30.8 7.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 7.3% 99.9% 11.4% 88.5% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 30.8% 99.4% 8.7% 90.6% 6.4 0.1 1.0 4.3 10.2 10.7 3.7 0.6 0.0 0.2 99.3%
12-6 41.3% 98.0% 5.2% 92.8% 7.3 0.0 0.1 1.5 7.2 13.5 12.5 4.9 0.8 0.0 0.8 97.9%
11-7 18.4% 94.5% 3.5% 91.1% 8.2 0.1 1.1 3.3 6.2 4.8 1.7 0.1 1.0 94.3%
10-8 2.3% 85.4% 2.3% 83.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 85.1%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.6% 6.4% 91.3% 7.1 2.4 97.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 3.4 0.8 14.1 37.9 38.7 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 99.8% 4.9 5.7 25.8 45.4 18.1 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1% 100.0% 5.5 1.6 8.4 35.7 42.8 11.4 0.2
Lose Out 0.7% 75.1% 9.8 6.3 19.0 35.3 14.5