North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#37
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#22
Pace73.0#63
Improvement-0.3#223

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#29
First Shot+6.6#25
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#149
Layup/Dunks+1.5#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#123
Freethrows+1.7#60
Improvement+0.2#153

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot+4.7#51
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#187
Layups/Dunks-1.9#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#7
Freethrows-0.2#204
Improvement-0.5#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 2.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 12.9% 13.8% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.9% 79.3% 62.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.3% 76.8% 59.1%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 95.7%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.3% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.1% 11.7% 16.2%
First Round72.2% 73.8% 55.1%
Second Round37.3% 38.3% 25.8%
Sweet Sixteen12.6% 13.0% 8.2%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.2% 3.1%
Final Four1.7% 1.8% 1.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 91.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 26 - 29 - 8
Quad 34 - 013 - 8
Quad 410 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 315   Austin Peay W 99-50 97%     1 - 0 +38.1 +17.5 +18.4
  Nov 11, 2022 255   Campbell W 73-67 95%     2 - 0 -1.6 -4.0 +2.4
  Nov 15, 2022 226   Florida International W 107-74 94%     3 - 0 +27.2 +15.1 +7.1
  Nov 19, 2022 334   Elon W 74-63 98%     4 - 0 -2.1 -5.0 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2022 7   Kansas L 74-80 31%     4 - 1 +10.6 +5.5 +5.5
  Nov 24, 2022 68   Dayton W 76-64 63%     5 - 1 +20.2 +9.9 +10.5
  Nov 25, 2022 86   Butler W 76-61 71%     6 - 1 +20.8 +10.0 +11.3
  Nov 29, 2022 305   William & Mary W 85-64 97%     7 - 1 +10.4 +2.8 +7.0
  Dec 02, 2022 64   Pittsburgh L 60-68 71%     7 - 2 0 - 1 -2.3 -10.5 +8.2
  Dec 06, 2022 345   Coppin St. W 94-72 98%     8 - 2 +7.3 +6.4 -0.6
  Dec 10, 2022 34   @ Miami (FL) L 73-80 37%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +7.8 +4.8 +3.0
  Dec 13, 2022 87   Furman W 92-73 79%     9 - 3 +22.0 +7.0 +12.8
  Dec 17, 2022 97   Vanderbilt W 70-66 74%     10 - 3 +8.9 +6.0 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2022 248   Louisville W 76-64 95%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +4.8 +2.3 +2.7
  Dec 30, 2022 60   @ Clemson L 64-78 50%     11 - 4 1 - 3 -2.4 -2.7 +0.3
  Jan 04, 2023 24   Duke W 84-60 54%     12 - 4 2 - 3 +34.5 +14.8 +19.2
  Jan 07, 2023 49   @ Virginia Tech W 73-69 45%     13 - 4 3 - 3 +16.7 +7.3 +9.5
  Jan 14, 2023 34   Miami (FL) W 83-81 OT 58%     14 - 4 4 - 3 +11.4 +7.0 +4.3
  Jan 17, 2023 172   @ Georgia Tech W 78-66 80%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +14.7 +7.2 +7.3
  Jan 21, 2023 26   @ North Carolina L 69-80 34%     15 - 5 5 - 4 +4.6 +2.3 +2.4
  Jan 24, 2023 127   Notre Dame W 85-82 87%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +2.6 +6.5 -4.0
  Jan 28, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest W 79-77 52%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +13.0 +10.3 +2.7
  Feb 01, 2023 140   Florida St. W 94-66 88%     18 - 5 8 - 4 +26.9 +20.6 +6.7
  Feb 04, 2023 172   Georgia Tech W 79-65 91%    
  Feb 07, 2023 16   @ Virginia L 65-70 29%    
  Feb 11, 2023 144   @ Boston College W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 14, 2023 75   @ Syracuse W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 19, 2023 26   North Carolina W 77-76 56%    
  Feb 22, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 82-76 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 60   Clemson W 76-71 70%    
  Feb 28, 2023 24   @ Duke L 71-75 33%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.3 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 5.7 4.4 0.2 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 9.5 1.2 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 1.0 10.9 4.8 0.1 16.7 4th
5th 0.2 6.5 10.9 0.7 18.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 11.3 2.6 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 6.3 4.3 0.1 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.2 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.8 12.1 23.4 28.4 21.3 8.8 1.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 87.0% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.3% 3.1    0.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.6    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.4% 99.9% 13.5% 86.4% 3.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 8.8% 99.0% 13.9% 85.1% 5.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
14-6 21.3% 94.5% 11.7% 82.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.8 5.3 3.3 1.2 0.2 1.2 93.8%
13-7 28.4% 86.0% 10.7% 75.3% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.3 7.6 6.5 1.9 0.0 4.0 84.3%
12-8 23.4% 69.3% 9.4% 59.8% 9.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 7.0 4.3 0.1 7.2 66.1%
11-9 12.1% 47.7% 7.6% 40.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 2.9 0.1 6.3 43.4%
10-10 3.8% 28.6% 7.8% 20.9% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 2.7 22.6%
9-11 0.6% 11.4% 6.7% 4.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.1%
8-12 0.1% 16.0% 16.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 77.9% 10.4% 67.5% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.7 10.2 12.3 15.0 17.2 10.0 0.4 22.1 75.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 99.9% 3.5 1.8 11.1 35.8 36.4 12.5 2.1 0.1
Lose Out 0.1% 16.0% 12.0 16.0