North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#63
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#62
Pace68.3#212
Improvement+0.2#149

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#43
First Shot+5.0#42
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#147
Layup/Dunks-0.6#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#177
Freethrows+2.5#40
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#100
First Shot+2.3#104
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#220
Freethrows+0.7#152
Improvement+0.3#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 4.5% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.6% 29.8% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.0% 28.0% 13.7%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.6
.500 or above 71.4% 78.5% 53.0%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 48.1% 33.3%
Conference Champion 1.5% 1.8% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 3.0% 7.1%
First Four5.4% 5.9% 4.1%
First Round22.8% 26.7% 12.6%
Second Round10.6% 12.7% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.7% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Home) - 72.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 8
Quad 25 - 47 - 13
Quad 36 - 212 - 14
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 292   Bucknell W 88-70 94%     1 - 0 +7.9 +5.5 +1.5
  Nov 13, 2021 113   Colgate W 77-74 75%     2 - 0 +3.5 +10.1 -6.2
  Nov 16, 2021 347   Central Connecticut St. W 79-65 97%     3 - 0 -0.2 -1.4 +1.3
  Nov 17, 2021 33   Oklahoma St. L 68-74 33%     3 - 1 +5.9 +0.5 +5.7
  Nov 21, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 65-57 87%     4 - 1 +3.2 -7.5 +11.0
  Nov 27, 2021 108   Louisiana Tech W 90-81 73%     5 - 1 +10.1 +16.7 -6.5
  Dec 01, 2021 105   Nebraska W 78-72 72%    
  Dec 04, 2021 36   Louisville L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 09, 2021 344   Bethune-Cookman W 84-60 99%    
  Dec 12, 2021 2   Purdue L 68-80 14%    
  Dec 17, 2021 80   Richmond W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 22, 2021 206   Wright St. W 81-69 87%    
  Dec 29, 2021 120   @ Miami (FL) W 74-73 56%    
  Jan 01, 2022 26   Florida St. L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 04, 2022 27   @ Virginia Tech L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 08, 2022 47   Clemson W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 12, 2022 36   @ Louisville L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 15, 2022 4   @ Duke L 68-82 10%    
  Jan 19, 2022 27   Virginia Tech L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 22, 2022 39   Virginia L 61-62 49%    
  Jan 26, 2022 64   @ Notre Dame L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 43   @ North Carolina L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 02, 2022 76   Syracuse W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 64   Notre Dame W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 09, 2022 87   Wake Forest W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 12, 2022 214   @ Pittsburgh W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 15, 2022 88   @ Georgia Tech L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 23, 2022 125   Boston College W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 26, 2022 43   North Carolina W 80-79 51%    
  Mar 02, 2022 87   @ Wake Forest L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 05, 2022 26   @ Florida St. L 68-77 23%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 6.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 3.9 1.8 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.9 0.3 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.5 3.0 4.7 1.4 0.1 9.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.6 2.6 0.3 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.9 0.5 9.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.9 0.7 0.0 8.6 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 2.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 7.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 3.3 6.0 8.0 10.5 12.1 13.2 11.5 10.3 8.2 6.3 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 80.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 61.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 47.4% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 18.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.1% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.1% 98.5% 14.6% 84.0% 6.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3%
14-6 3.9% 93.8% 8.3% 85.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 93.2%
13-7 6.3% 85.6% 6.4% 79.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.9 84.6%
12-8 8.2% 66.8% 3.0% 63.7% 9.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.4 2.7 65.7%
11-9 10.3% 40.6% 1.7% 38.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 6.1 39.5%
10-10 11.5% 20.0% 1.3% 18.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 9.2 18.9%
9-11 13.2% 5.5% 0.9% 4.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.5 4.7%
8-12 12.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.0 0.5%
7-13 10.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 10.5 0.1%
6-14 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 8.0
5-15 6.0% 6.0
4-16 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.6% 2.2% 23.4% 9.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.8 2.4 3.1 4.2 4.7 5.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.4 24.0%