North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#28
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#57
Pace72.8#86
Improvement-0.4#202

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#20
First Shot+8.5#16
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#135
Layup/Dunks+3.4#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#39
Freethrows+1.8#83
Improvement-2.8#346

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#38
First Shot+2.5#98
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#12
Layups/Dunks+5.9#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#339
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+2.4#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.7% 8.9% 2.9%
Top 6 Seed 25.6% 28.4% 14.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.4% 84.1% 70.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.9% 82.7% 68.7%
Average Seed 7.5 7.3 8.1
.500 or above 98.3% 99.1% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 92.7% 78.6%
Conference Champion 9.0% 10.5% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four6.0% 5.6% 7.7%
First Round78.6% 81.5% 66.4%
Second Round49.5% 52.3% 37.8%
Sweet Sixteen16.9% 18.4% 10.5%
Elite Eight6.3% 6.8% 4.0%
Final Four2.0% 2.2% 1.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 8
Quad 27 - 212 - 11
Quad 35 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 348 NC Central W 114-65 99%     1 - 0 +33.7 +31.5 +0.3
  Fri, Nov 7 107 UAB W 94-70 89%     2 - 0 +25.2 +15.4 +8.3
  Wed, Nov 12 294 UNC Greensboro W 110-64 98%     3 - 0 +35.9 +25.0 +8.3
  Mon, Nov 17 47 Virginia Commonwealth W 85-79 74%     4 - 0 +14.1 +11.8 +2.0
  Mon, Nov 24 54 Seton Hall L 74-85 69%     4 - 1 -1.5 +5.3 -6.2
  Tue, Nov 25 51 Boise St. W 81-70 67%     5 - 1 +21.1 +14.3 +6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 41 Texas L 97-102 60%     5 - 2 +7.2 +25.6 -18.2
  Wed, Dec 3 34 @Auburn L 73-83 44%     5 - 3 +6.4 +5.3 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 6 232 UNC Asheville W 75-63 97%     6 - 3 +4.6 +1.1 +3.9
  Wed, Dec 10 102 Liberty W 85-45 88%     7 - 3 +41.9 +15.4 +28.1
  Sat, Dec 13 17 Kansas L 76-77 OT 51%     7 - 4 +13.4 +7.6 +5.9
  Wed, Dec 17 327 Texas Southern W 108-72 99%     8 - 4 +23.1 +27.9 -5.3
  Sun, Dec 21 63 Mississippi W 76-62 73%     9 - 4 +22.5 +8.1 +14.4
  Wed, Dec 31 61 Wake Forest W 84-75 80%    
  Sat, Jan 3 26 Virginia W 79-76 60%    
  Tue, Jan 6 156 @Boston College W 79-67 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 113 @Florida St. W 88-80 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 129 Georgia Tech W 86-70 93%    
  Tue, Jan 20 40 @Clemson L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 84 @Pittsburgh W 77-72 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 75 Syracuse W 83-73 83%    
  Sat, Jan 31 61 @Wake Forest W 81-78 61%    
  Tue, Feb 3 42 @SMU L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 74 Virginia Tech W 84-74 82%    
  Mon, Feb 9 13 @Louisville L 80-86 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 35 Miami (FL) W 82-77 66%    
  Tue, Feb 17 21 North Carolina W 79-77 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 26 @Virginia L 76-79 38%    
  Sat, Feb 28 64 @Notre Dame W 76-73 62%    
  Mon, Mar 2 4 Duke L 76-80 35%    
  Sat, Mar 7 81 Stanford W 85-74 83%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.6 0.9 0.2 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 6.6 2.9 0.3 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.2 3.7 0.3 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.2 4.8 0.7 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 5.4 1.6 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.4 2.4 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.0 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.3 8.7 12.6 15.6 16.4 14.9 11.0 6.6 3.1 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.5% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 83.2% 2.6    1.7 0.9 0.0
15-3 49.4% 3.2    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 16.3% 1.8    0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 4.1 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.1% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.6% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.0% 99.8% 14.3% 85.4% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.4 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 14.9% 98.6% 10.3% 88.3% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 5.0 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.5%
12-6 16.4% 95.8% 6.4% 89.5% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 4.7 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.7 95.6%
11-7 15.6% 88.9% 4.0% 84.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 4.1 3.1 0.7 1.7 88.4%
10-8 12.6% 75.0% 2.5% 72.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 3.3 1.6 0.0 3.2 74.3%
9-9 8.7% 51.2% 1.7% 49.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.8 0.1 4.3 50.4%
8-10 5.3% 24.2% 1.1% 23.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 4.0 23.4%
7-11 2.8% 5.9% 0.4% 5.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 5.5%
6-12 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.8%
5-13 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.4% 7.3% 74.0% 7.5 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.7 7.4 10.5 13.9 14.2 12.2 9.9 5.2 0.2 18.6 79.9%