Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#64
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#66
Pace64.0#318
Improvement-1.9#300

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#80
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#80
Layup/Dunks+1.8#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#93
Freethrows+0.7#124
Improvement-1.6#297

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#64
First Shot+2.4#100
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#45
Layups/Dunks+6.5#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#348
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement-0.4#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 26.6% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.3% 25.9% 12.3%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 9.8
.500 or above 77.4% 88.6% 68.5%
.500 or above in Conference 45.8% 61.2% 33.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 0.8% 3.9%
First Four6.4% 8.4% 4.8%
First Round15.2% 21.8% 10.0%
Second Round5.7% 8.5% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 44.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 24 - 37 - 13
Quad 34 - 112 - 14
Quad 46 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 206 LIU Brooklyn W 89-67 90%     1 - 0 +16.1 +11.6 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 7 296 Detroit Mercy W 102-70 95%     2 - 0 +21.8 +15.6 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 11 325 Eastern Illinois W 78-58 97%     3 - 0 +7.2 +12.5 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 16 31 @Ohio St. L 63-64 21%     3 - 1 +16.1 +0.1 +16.0
  Wed, Nov 19 267 Bellarmine W 86-79 94%     4 - 1 -1.8 +5.8 -7.6
  Mon, Nov 24 17 Kansas L 61-71 20%     4 - 2 +7.4 +3.1 +3.6
  Tue, Nov 25 147 Rutgers W 68-63 76%     5 - 2 +5.9 +5.2 +1.4
  Wed, Nov 26 8 Houston L 56-66 14%     5 - 3 +10.3 +4.0 +4.4
  Tue, Dec 2 60 Missouri W 76-71 60%     6 - 3 +10.8 +4.9 +6.0
  Fri, Dec 5 53 @TCU W 87-85 OT 33%     7 - 3 +14.9 +17.5 -2.8
  Wed, Dec 10 177 Idaho W 80-65 88%     8 - 3 +10.8 +13.3 -0.7
  Sat, Dec 13 252 Evansville W 82-58 93%     9 - 3 +15.8 +11.4 +5.6
  Sun, Dec 21 199 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-72 90%     9 - 4 -8.4 -7.5 -0.9
  Tue, Dec 30 81 @Stanford L 72-73 44%    
  Fri, Jan 2 65 @California L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 40 Clemson L 66-67 47%    
  Tue, Jan 13 35 Miami (FL) L 71-73 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 74 @Virginia Tech L 71-73 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 21 @North Carolina L 66-77 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 156 Boston College W 72-61 85%    
  Tue, Jan 27 26 Virginia L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 75 @Syracuse L 70-72 42%    
  Wed, Feb 4 13 @Louisville L 69-81 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 113 Florida St. W 80-72 77%    
  Tue, Feb 10 42 @SMU L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Feb 14 129 Georgia Tech W 75-66 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 84 @Pittsburgh L 68-69 46%    
  Tue, Feb 24 4 Duke L 66-76 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 28 North Carolina St. L 73-76 38%    
  Wed, Mar 4 81 Stanford W 75-70 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 156 @Boston College W 69-64 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.5 0.1 5.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 4.3 1.7 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.5 4.2 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 5.4 1.2 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.7 3.0 0.2 10.0 10th
11th 0.3 3.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.7 5.4 1.9 0.0 9.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.0 0.3 7.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 2.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 2.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 7.0 11.0 14.4 16.1 15.1 12.4 8.9 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 48.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 17.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.1% 95.3% 5.0% 90.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.1%
13-5 2.7% 87.2% 4.0% 83.1% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 86.6%
12-6 5.2% 72.3% 1.9% 70.4% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 1.4 71.8%
11-7 8.9% 52.4% 1.2% 51.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.0 4.2 51.8%
10-8 12.4% 32.8% 0.9% 32.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.0 8.3 32.2%
9-9 15.1% 12.8% 0.4% 12.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.1 13.2 12.5%
8-10 16.1% 2.8% 0.2% 2.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 15.6 2.6%
7-11 14.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.2%
6-12 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 7.0% 7.0
4-14 3.7% 3.7
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.8% 0.6% 18.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.8 5.7 0.2 81.2 18.3%