Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#64
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#193
Pace66.9#240
Improvement-1.1#262

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#35
First Shot+2.6#103
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#27
Layup/Dunks-1.4#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#104
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement-0.2#203

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#115
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#60
Layups/Dunks-1.1#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#225
Freethrows+0.8#141
Improvement-0.8#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 2.8% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 19.6% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.0% 17.5% 7.1%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 9.6
.500 or above 54.2% 64.3% 40.7%
.500 or above in Conference 54.9% 65.6% 40.5%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.8% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.2% 4.8%
First Four2.7% 3.3% 1.8%
First Round13.4% 17.8% 7.5%
Second Round6.6% 9.0% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 3.1% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 24 - 57 - 14
Quad 34 - 210 - 15
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 273   Cal St. Northridge W 68-52 93%     1 - 0 +6.9 +0.0 +9.1
  Nov 16, 2021 285   High Point W 70-61 94%     2 - 0 -0.8 -4.3 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2021 41   St. Mary's L 59-62 38%     2 - 1 +7.5 +0.6 +6.7
  Nov 24, 2021 82   Texas A&M L 67-73 54%     2 - 2 +0.5 -3.0 +3.7
  Nov 29, 2021 30   @ Illinois L 72-82 23%     2 - 3 +5.3 +10.6 -6.0
  Dec 03, 2021 125   @ Boston College W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 11, 2021 12   Kentucky L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 18, 2021 32   Indiana L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 20, 2021 298   Western Michigan W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 81-62 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 214   @ Pittsburgh W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 01, 2022 4   Duke L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 05, 2022 43   North Carolina W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 08, 2022 88   @ Georgia Tech L 69-71 45%    
  Jan 12, 2022 47   Clemson W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 15, 2022 27   @ Virginia Tech L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 17, 2022 312   @ Howard W 84-71 87%    
  Jan 22, 2022 36   @ Louisville L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 26, 2022 63   North Carolina St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 39   Virginia L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 02, 2022 120   @ Miami (FL) W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 63   @ North Carolina St. L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 09, 2022 36   Louisville L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 47   @ Clemson L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 16, 2022 125   Boston College W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 87   @ Wake Forest L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 22, 2022 76   Syracuse W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 26, 2022 88   Georgia Tech W 72-68 65%    
  Mar 02, 2022 26   @ Florida St. L 67-76 23%    
  Mar 05, 2022 214   Pittsburgh W 76-63 87%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.1 1.4 0.2 7.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 4.0 1.7 0.2 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.6 3.5 4.2 1.2 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.4 2.6 4.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 2.1 0.2 8.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 5.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.3 6.2 9.0 10.9 11.3 12.6 11.7 10.5 7.7 5.5 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 91.7% 0.3    0.3 0.1
17-3 62.8% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 37.6% 0.7    0.3 0.4 0.1
15-5 16.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.9% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.9% 93.0% 8.1% 84.9% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 92.4%
15-5 3.6% 81.4% 10.2% 71.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.7 79.3%
14-6 5.5% 60.3% 5.6% 54.7% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.1 2.2 58.0%
13-7 7.7% 32.9% 3.8% 29.2% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.1 30.3%
12-8 10.5% 16.8% 2.4% 14.4% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 8.8 14.8%
11-9 11.7% 5.6% 1.5% 4.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 11.0 4.1%
10-10 12.6% 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.4 1.0%
9-11 11.3% 1.0% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.1
8-12 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
7-13 9.0% 9.0
6-14 6.2% 6.2
5-15 4.3% 4.3
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.8% 2.0% 12.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.2 13.0%