Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#80
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#162
Pace62.8#333
Improvement-1.5#278

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#67
First Shot+7.1#28
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#313
Layup/Dunks+3.4#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#93
Freethrows-0.7#224
Improvement-1.2#276

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#101
First Shot+3.6#72
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#272
Layups/Dunks+5.0#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#302
Freethrows+3.5#15
Improvement-0.3#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.3% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 4.0% 1.6%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.2
.500 or above 55.4% 63.9% 39.2%
.500 or above in Conference 54.0% 62.7% 37.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.5% 6.4%
First Four1.4% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round3.6% 4.5% 1.8%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 8
Quad 25 - 56 - 13
Quad 35 - 211 - 15
Quad 46 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 336   Stonehill W 89-60 96%     1 - 0 +15.8 +13.4 +3.3
  Nov 11, 2024 331   Buffalo W 86-77 96%     2 - 0 -3.8 -2.3 -2.4
  Nov 16, 2024 98   @ Georgetown W 84-63 44%     3 - 0 +29.4 +23.1 +8.2
  Nov 19, 2024 289   North Dakota W 75-58 93%     4 - 0 +7.4 -1.4 +9.3
  Nov 22, 2024 173   Elon L 77-84 84%     4 - 1 -10.8 +8.7 -20.2
  Nov 26, 2024 58   Rutgers L 84-85 OT 40%     4 - 2 +8.5 +11.8 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 6   Houston L 54-65 14%     4 - 3 +7.4 -0.9 +6.7
  Nov 30, 2024 40   Creighton L 76-80 32%     4 - 4 +7.7 +9.0 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2024 38   @ Georgia L 48-69 22%     4 - 5 -6.1 -7.5 -2.6
  Dec 07, 2024 96   Syracuse W 76-72 66%    
  Dec 11, 2024 319   Dartmouth W 79-60 96%    
  Dec 22, 2024 334   Le Moyne W 80-60 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 17   North Carolina L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 08, 2025 72   @ North Carolina St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 2   @ Duke L 60-77 6%    
  Jan 13, 2025 145   Boston College W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 96   @ Syracuse L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 90   @ Virginia L 60-62 43%    
  Jan 28, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 87   @ Miami (FL) L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 04, 2025 61   @ Florida St. L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 129   Virginia Tech W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 145   @ Boston College W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 43   Louisville L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 62   SMU W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 22, 2025 36   Pittsburgh L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 28   @ Clemson L 64-73 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 05, 2025 93   Stanford W 73-69 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 109   California W 77-71 70%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 4.2 1.5 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.0 4.0 0.8 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 4.6 1.8 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.3 3.0 3.1 0.4 6.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 4.1 1.0 0.0 6.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.0 0.1 5.7 13th
14th 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.6 0.0 5.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.3 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.4 8.7 11.3 13.0 13.6 12.3 10.3 7.7 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 92.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
18-2 80.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 52.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 16.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 91.5% 21.1% 70.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.3%
17-3 0.5% 81.0% 8.9% 72.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 79.1%
16-4 1.4% 56.5% 8.5% 48.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 52.4%
15-5 2.8% 33.1% 6.6% 26.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.9 28.4%
14-6 5.1% 15.4% 4.0% 11.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 4.3 11.8%
13-7 7.7% 7.5% 2.5% 5.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.2 5.2%
12-8 10.3% 3.5% 1.5% 1.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.0 1.9%
11-9 12.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1 0.3%
10-10 13.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.1%
9-11 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.0%
8-12 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 8.7
6-14 6.4% 6.4
5-15 3.6% 3.6
4-16 1.9% 1.9
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.3% 1.1% 3.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.7 3.2%