Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.0 #31
Expected Predictive Rating +14.0 #37
Pace 65.7 #280
Improvement -1.6 #283

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #21 B+ C A- A- B
Defense #55 A- B C+ C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.21 #116 +1.2 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #320 0.84 #91 -2.1 #276
Three Pointers 48% #56 1.14 #50 +6.5 #23
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #48 +5.6 #48
Freethrows 18.5 #119 70% #255 12.9 #157
Second Chance 35.6% #55 1.20 #34 0.43 #28
Turnovers 13.9% #39
Total Offense +9.1 #21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 0.93 #9 +5.3 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #32 0.69 #101 -1.6 #282
Three Pointers 36% #300 0.99 #170 +2.8 #83
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #29 +6.5 #28
Freethrows 14.7 #58 71% #118 10.4 #55
Second Chance 31.5% #213 0.95 #84 0.30 #143
Turnovers 15.6% #250
Total Defense +4.9 #55

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #70 -1.9% #44
Shot Type Make % Effect 8.9% #57 -11% #31
Possession Length 15.2 #32 19.6 #365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #80 0.16 #123
Improvement -2.5 #335 +0.9 #123

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.9% 10.8% 3.4%
Top 6 Seed 20.2% 32.1% 14.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.0% 89.8% 73.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.7% 89.0% 72.2%
Average Seed 7.9 7.2 8.3
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 92.8% 77.5%
Conference Champion 4.6% 9.4% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four8.1% 5.0% 9.7%
First Round75.2% 87.4% 68.9%
Second Round43.9% 55.0% 38.2%
Sweet Sixteen13.4% 18.8% 10.6%
Elite Eight5.0% 7.0% 4.0%
Final Four1.6% 2.6% 1.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 27 - 312 - 9
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 347 Rider W 87-53 99%     17.1   1 - 0 +18.5 +17.9 +3.8
  Fri, Nov 7 349 NC Central W 81-62 99%     19.4   2 - 0 +3.3 +11.7 -6.2
  Tue, Nov 11 242 Hampton W 91-53 97%     23.7   3 - 0 +30.3 +19.1 +12.9
  Sat, Nov 15 172 Marshall W 104-78 94%     20.4   4 - 0 +22.2 +21.4 -1.1
  Fri, Nov 21 57 Northwestern W 83-78 68%     -1.0   5 - 0 +14.3 +13.0 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 50 Butler L 73-80 62%     -4.8   5 - 1 +3.8 +5.4 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 28 234 Queens W 94-69 97%     12.1   6 - 1 +17.6 +19.5 +0.2
  Wed, Dec 3 43 @Texas W 88-69 45%     5.9   7 - 1 +34.4 +27.1 +8.6
  Sat, Dec 6 74 Dayton W 86-73 72%     2.3   8 - 1 +20.8 +14.5 +5.6
  Tue, Dec 9 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-60 99%     11.7   9 - 1 +8.9 +9.1 +0.9
  Sat, Dec 20 102 Maryland W 80-72 86%     -0.2   10 - 1 +10.2 +13.0 -2.5
  Mon, Dec 22 255 American W 95-51 97%     18.3   11 - 1 +35.8 +27.4 +12.8
  Wed, Dec 31 64 @Virginia Tech L 85-95 3OT 59%     -8.1   11 - 2 0 - 1 +1.6 -4.5 +8.8
  Sat, Jan 3 25 @North Carolina St. L 74-78 34%    
  Wed, Jan 7 76 California W 78-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 83 Stanford W 79-69 82%    
  Tue, Jan 13 13 @Louisville L 75-82 25%    
  Sat, Jan 17 35 @SMU L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 22 North Carolina W 74-73 54%    
  Tue, Jan 27 60 @Notre Dame W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 154 @Boston College W 75-64 84%    
  Tue, Feb 3 84 Pittsburgh W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 78 Syracuse W 78-69 80%    
  Tue, Feb 10 112 @Florida St. W 83-76 75%    
  Sat, Feb 14 32 Ohio St. W 77-76 50%    
  Wed, Feb 18 116 @Georgia Tech W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 36 Miami (FL) W 78-74 63%    
  Tue, Feb 24 25 North Carolina St. W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 6 @Duke L 70-80 19%    
  Tue, Mar 3 62 Wake Forest W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 64 Virginia Tech W 78-70 78%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.6 0.8 0.1 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.5 4.7 1.2 0.1 9.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 6.3 2.3 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.8 4.2 0.3 11.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.6 5.9 1.0 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 6.2 2.4 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 3.9 0.5 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.4 1.2 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.4 2.8 2.0 0.1 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.6 0.5 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 1.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.9 8.4 12.4 15.9 17.3 15.9 11.2 6.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 89.0% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 64.1% 1.6    0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.0% 1.7    0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 3.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 4.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 6.6% 99.9% 15.5% 84.4% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.2% 99.2% 11.9% 87.4% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.8 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.1%
12-6 15.9% 97.2% 7.6% 89.6% 7.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.7 4.0 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.4 97.0%
11-7 17.3% 93.0% 4.6% 88.4% 8.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.7 4.5 4.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 1.2 92.7%
10-8 15.9% 83.7% 3.0% 80.6% 9.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.1 4.2 1.6 0.0 2.6 83.2%
9-9 12.4% 68.2% 1.8% 66.4% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 2.3 0.0 4.0 67.6%
8-10 8.4% 43.0% 1.1% 41.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.0 4.8 42.3%
7-11 4.9% 17.7% 0.9% 16.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 4.1 16.9%
6-12 2.6% 6.1% 1.0% 5.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 5.2%
5-13 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.5%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 79.0% 5.8% 73.2% 7.9 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.7 5.7 8.6 11.6 13.7 13.4 12.8 7.2 0.1 21.0 77.7%