Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.3 #24
Expected Predictive Rating +16.1 #27
Pace 64.9 #294
Improvement +0.4 #165

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #21 A- C A+ B+ B
Defense #40 A B- C+ C- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.21 #118 +1.0 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #319 0.88 #47 -1.8 #260
Three Pointers 48% #55 1.15 #38 +6.9 #18
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #39 +6.1 #39
Freethrows 18.4 #130 71% #246 13.0 #155
Second Chance 35.7% #54 1.24 #18 0.44 #22
Turnovers 14.1% #47
Total Offense +9.4 #21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 0.93 #8 +5.5 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #23 0.67 #74 -1.5 #287
Three Pointers 36% #304 0.96 #133 +3.4 #62
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #19 +7.4 #20
Freethrows 15.4 #90 71% #125 11.0 #82
Second Chance 31.1% #197 0.95 #75 0.30 #130
Turnovers 15.8% #240
Total Defense +5.9 #40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #70 -2.1% #36
Shot Type Make % Effect 9.9% #45 -12.5% #21
Possession Length 15.4 #39 19.7 #365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #98 0.16 #135
Improvement -1.8 #295 +2.2 #51

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 15.1% 16.8% 5.5%
Top 6 Seed 41.0% 44.2% 22.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.1% 93.6% 83.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.2% 92.8% 82.6%
Average Seed 6.8 6.7 7.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 96.1% 85.3%
Conference Champion 11.8% 13.3% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.1% 3.6% 6.7%
First Round90.2% 91.8% 80.8%
Second Round59.9% 62.2% 46.8%
Sweet Sixteen23.5% 25.0% 14.9%
Elite Eight8.4% 8.9% 5.4%
Final Four2.9% 3.2% 1.7%
Championship Game0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: California (Home) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 5
Quad 28 - 313 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 348 Rider W 87-53 99%     17.1   1 - 0 +18.6 +18.0 +3.8
  Fri, Nov 7 346 NC Central W 81-62 99%     19.4   2 - 0 +3.8 +12.0 -6.0
  Tue, Nov 11 238 Hampton W 91-53 97%     23.7   3 - 0 +30.5 +20.3 +11.8
  Sat, Nov 15 165 Marshall W 104-78 95%     20.4   4 - 0 +22.5 +20.8 -0.3
  Fri, Nov 21 65 Northwestern W 83-78 74%     -1.0   5 - 0 +13.5 +11.9 +1.6
  Sun, Nov 23 55 Butler L 73-80 70%     -4.8   5 - 1 +2.9 +5.2 -2.4
  Fri, Nov 28 226 Queens W 94-69 97%     12.1   6 - 1 +18.4 +20.0 +0.5
  Wed, Dec 3 46 @Texas W 88-69 53%     5.9   7 - 1 +33.6 +26.0 +8.9
  Sat, Dec 6 77 Dayton W 86-73 77%     2.3   8 - 1 +20.5 +14.6 +5.2
  Tue, Dec 9 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-60 99%     11.7   9 - 1 +9.6 +10.2 +0.4
  Sat, Dec 20 99 Maryland W 80-72 88%     -0.2   10 - 1 +10.3 +13.0 -2.4
  Mon, Dec 22 244 American W 95-51 97%     18.3   11 - 1 +36.2 +27.9 +12.6
  Wed, Dec 31 60 @Virginia Tech L 85-95 3OT 63%     -8.1   11 - 2 0 - 1 +1.9 -4.5 +9.2
  Sat, Jan 3 32 @North Carolina St. W 76-61 43%     11.7   12 - 2 1 - 1 +32.1 +17.8 +15.6
  Wed, Jan 7 76 California W 79-68 85%    
  Sat, Jan 10 81 Stanford W 78-67 85%    
  Tue, Jan 13 13 @Louisville L 75-81 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 30 @SMU L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 26 North Carolina W 75-72 62%    
  Tue, Jan 27 59 @Notre Dame W 70-67 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 154 @Boston College W 74-62 87%    
  Tue, Feb 3 86 Pittsburgh W 76-65 85%    
  Sat, Feb 7 78 Syracuse W 78-67 84%    
  Tue, Feb 10 107 @Florida St. W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 34 Ohio St. W 76-75 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 109 @Georgia Tech W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 37 Miami (FL) W 77-72 68%    
  Tue, Feb 24 32 North Carolina St. W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 8 @Duke L 71-79 23%    
  Tue, Mar 3 58 Wake Forest W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 60 Virginia Tech W 78-69 81%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.6 2.1 0.4 11.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.8 6.7 2.4 0.2 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 5.0 7.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 7.3 3.1 0.2 13.1 4th
5th 0.8 5.5 4.6 0.5 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 5.4 1.0 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.8 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.3 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 0.8 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.4 6.7 11.6 16.1 18.9 18.1 13.1 7.2 2.3 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.0% 2.1    1.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 64.2% 4.6    2.4 1.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 29.3% 3.9    0.8 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 5.2 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.3% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 3.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.2% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 4.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.1% 99.8% 16.0% 83.8% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.3 3.7 3.0 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 18.1% 99.4% 12.6% 86.8% 6.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.9 5.1 4.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-6 18.9% 98.3% 8.1% 90.2% 7.1 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 5.3 4.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 98.1%
11-7 16.1% 94.9% 5.1% 89.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.0 4.4 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.8 94.6%
10-8 11.6% 86.5% 3.4% 83.1% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 2.9 2.8 0.9 1.6 86.0%
9-9 6.7% 75.4% 1.8% 73.6% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.6 75.0%
8-10 3.4% 50.2% 1.3% 48.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.7 49.6%
7-11 1.5% 24.9% 0.7% 24.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1 24.4%
6-12 0.5% 9.5% 9.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.5%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.1% 9.6% 82.5% 6.8 0.3 1.4 4.6 8.7 11.8 14.1 15.0 13.4 11.3 8.0 3.5 0.0 7.9 91.2%