Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +16.6 23
Expected Predictive Rating +20.4 12
Pace 63.8 308
Improvement -1.0 226

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 43 B A B- C B
Defense A- 18 A A- C B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 162 B- 61% 96 +1.6 119
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 331 A- 46% 23 -1.8 271
Three Pointers 48% 45 B- 36% 92 +5.1 35
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 57 B +3.7 68
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 50
Second Chance A 40.9% 5 B- 1.11 71 A 0.45 8
Turnovers B- 15.4% 86
Freethrows C+ 0.31 157 C- 71% 221 C 0.22 170
Total Offense B+ +7.9 43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 293 A 47% 10 -5.9 22
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 11 C+ 36% 110 +2.7 346
Three Pointers 36% 317 B+ 30% 29 -4.8 18
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 21 A -6.6 11
1st FG Attempt A 0.86 7
Second Chance B+ 26.0% 40 A- 0.87 15 A- 0.23 16
Turnovers C 17.0% 176
Freethrows C+ 0.28 119 C+ 72% 142 B- 0.20 111
Total Defense A- +8.7 18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 99 19.3 363
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 99 0.15 118
Improvement -4.5 #347 +3.5 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 2% 3% 0%
Top 4 Seed 34% 37% 18%
Top 6 Seed 89% 90% 77%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 5.0 4.9 5.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 13% 14% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round82% 83% 75%
Sweet Sixteen37% 38% 28%
Elite Eight13% 13% 9%
Final Four4% 5% 3%
Championship Game1% 2% 1%
National Champion1% 1% 0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 14 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 4
Quad 28 - 215 - 6
Quad 35 - 020 - 6
Quad 47 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 354 Rider W 87 - 53 100% +17  95% 1 - 0 A- +17 A +11 D+ A+ A A- +9 B B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 344 NC Central W 81 - 62 99% +19  100% 2 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +7 C+ A C- C- -2 A- C D-
 Tue, Nov 11 248 Hampton W 91 - 53 98% +24  98% 3 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +18 A A+ D- A+ +14 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 15 177 Marshall W 104 - 78 96% +20  99% 4 - 0 A +22 A+ +17 A A+ A B- +3 A+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 66 Northwestern W 83 - 78 79% -1  35% 5 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 D A B B- +3 B- B D
 Sun, Nov 23 80 Butler L 73 - 80 81% -5  1% 5 - 1 C +0 C +1 D- A A C -1 D- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 209 Queens W 94 - 69 97% +18  99% 6 - 1 A +19 A+ +19 A+ B B+ B- +2 A+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 27 @Texas W 88 - 69 43% +16  91% 7 - 1 A+ +37 A+ +24 A+ A+ A A+ +15 A+ B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 90 Dayton W 86 - 73 85% +6  70% 8 - 1 A +19 A +11 A+ A+ F B+ +7 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99% +16  97% 9 - 1 B- +8 B +7 A- C- A C+ +2 C- C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 107 Maryland W 80 - 72 92% +4  66% 10 - 1 B +9 B+ +8 B- D+ A C+ +1 F+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 258 American W 95 - 51 98% +22  97% 11 - 1 A+ +35 A+ +25 A+ A+ A A+ +15 A+ C D+
 Wed, Dec 31 60 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 68% -2  22% 11 - 2 0 - 1 C+ +2 D- -8 D- D C+ A +12 A+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 29 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 44% +13  95% 12 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +33 A +14 A A+ C- A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 71 California W 84 - 60 86% +12  93% 13 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +29 A +13 A A+ C A+ +17 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 77 Stanford W 70 - 55 87% +9  89% 14 - 2 3 - 1 A +20 B- +4 C+ A- A A+ +17 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 10 @Louisville W 79 - 70 28% +9  97% 15 - 2 4 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +18 A+ A+ D A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 36 @SMU W 72 - 68 49% +1  54% 16 - 2 5 - 1 A +21 A- +10 C- A+ C+ A +11 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 25 North Carolina L 80 - 85 65% +4  74% 16 - 3 5 - 2 B- +8 A +11 B A+ D+ D+ -4 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 82 @Notre Dame W 100 - 97 2OT 74% -5  19% 17 - 3 6 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +18 A B- B- D -6 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 134 @Boston College W 73 - 66 87% -1  36% 18 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +12 B+ +9 B C- A B- +3 C B- C
 Tue, Feb 3 98 Pittsburgh W 67 - 47 91% +10  85% 19 - 3 8 - 2 A +22 C+ +3 B- A C+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 64 Syracuse W 72 - 59 85% +6  85% 20 - 3 9 - 2 A +18 B+ +8 B B+ B+ A +12 B+ B+ A
 Tue, Feb 10 86 @Florida St. W 61 - 58 75% -2  19% 21 - 3 10 - 2 B+ +13 F+ -8 F+ A C- A+ +21 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 38 Ohio St. W 70 - 66 61% -2  29% 22 - 3 A +18 C+ +3 C C D+ A+ +15 A A+ D
 Wed, Feb 18 139 @Georgia Tech W 79 - 67 88%
 Sat, Feb 21 40 Miami (FL) W 76 - 70 72%
 Tue, Feb 24 29 North Carolina St. W 77 - 73 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 3 @Duke L 64 - 74 18%
 Tue, Mar 3 62 Wake Forest W 78 - 67 85%
 Sat, Mar 7 60 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 84%
Totals 26 - 5 14 - 4 +17 B+ +8 A B B A- +9 B- C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B- A- B- B 39% 23% 48% B B A B- A B- C+ C- C A- A C+ B+ A 35% 29% 36% A- A B+ A- A- C C+ C+ B-
1.20 61% 46% 36% +4 +1 1.12 41% 1.1 .45 15% .31 71% .22 0.96 47% 36% 30% -7 -1 0.86 26% 0.9 .23 17% .28 72% .22
Nov
3		 Rider A A- A F D+ 47% 9% 45% B- D+ A+ A- A+ A A+ F A+ A- B+ A C- C+ 33% 45% 23% A B C- A B+ A- F A- F
1.36 68% 50% 29% +2 +2 1.11 54% 1.2 .63 9% .59 56% .33 0.83 46% 28% 33% -9 -4 0.78 33% 0.7 .23 22% .58 62% .36
Nov
7		 NC Central B+ A+ F B C+ 22% 15% 63% D C+ A+ C A C- B+ F C- C- A+ A+ F A 43% 29% 29% B- A- F A C D- F F F
1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 -1 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22 0.99 33% 21% 43% -12 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33
Nov
11		 Hampton A+ C B- A+ A- 53% 10% 37% A A A+ B+ A+ D- F+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% F A+ A+ F B- D A+ A+ A+
1.36 62% 40% 44% +8 +2 1.22 52% 1.1 .59 19% .31 82% .26 0.79 35% 30% 22% -18 0 0.66 24% 1.2 .29 16% .20 64% .12
Nov
15		 Marshall A+ C- B+ A+ A- 42% 13% 45% A- A C+ A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 28% 30% 42% B A+ C+ F F B- F F+ F
1.37 57% 43% 44% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.5 .51 12% .54 72% .39 1.03 47% 50% 23% -7 -2 0.85 31% 1.8 .56 20% .40 79% .31
Nov
21		 Northwestern A- F+ A F D 40% 23% 36% C+ D A+ D A B A+ A+ A+ B- C+ A- F C+ 42% 30% 28% B B- A+ F B D D B+ C-
1.17 47% 45% 24% -8 0 0.85 53% 0.9 .45 16% .60 83% .50 1.10 59% 31% 40% +1 -1 1.02 18% 1.8 .32 10% .38 71% .27
Nov
23		 Butler C D- D+ F F 47% 11% 42% A D- A B- A A B- F D C B- F F F+ 48% 22% 30% B- D- D A+ A+ A- F C+ F
1.06 50% 33% 26% -9 +2 0.87 38% 1.0 .38 13% .25 47% .12 1.16 55% 60% 43% +7 +1 1.17 40% 0.6 .23 19% .52 69% .36
Nov
28		 Queens A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ A D B B+ B D- C+ B- A C+ A A+ 34% 22% 44% B+ A+ F C- F C+ D A C
1.46 69% 60% 50% +20 +1 1.43 45% 0.9 .42 12% .39 68% .27 1.07 47% 36% 27% -8 0 0.84 40% 1.1 .44 17% .34 67% .22
Dec
3		 Texas A+ B+ D- A+ A+ 40% 15% 46% A- A+ C A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 22% 34% C A+ A- C B+ F+ D+ A C+
1.35 63% 29% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.7 .41 11% .50 69% .34 1.06 55% 27% 24% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 11% .43 68% .29
Dec
6		 Dayton A B A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% B- A+ C- A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B+ B A D B 43% 23% 34% A- B A A+ A+ F A- B A
1.17 63% 50% 56% +18 0 1.38 27% 1.7 .45 29% .51 74% .38 0.99 54% 23% 37% -4 0 0.95 20% 0.7 .14 12% .34 73% .25
Dec
9		 Maryland Eastern Shore B D+ D+ A+ B+ 49% 5% 45% A A- D B C- A F C- F+ C+ A F A C+ 56% 21% 23% F C- A F C+ C- A- F B-
1.25 56% 33% 44% +5 +3 1.18 28% 1.2 .34 10% .25 73% .18 0.90 45% 64% 25% -5 +1 0.94 21% 1.2 .24 22% .15 88% .13
Dec
20		 Maryland B+ C F+ B+ C+ 53% 13% 34% A B- A+ F D+ A A- F B- C+ C+ B- F F 21% 26% 53% A+ F+ F A+ B- A+ F C- F
1.19 57% 29% 39% +1 +2 1.08 40% 0.6 .25 12% .35 62% .22 1.07 56% 36% 43% +7 -2 1.12 49% 0.7 .34 28% .46 73% .33
Dec
22		 American A+ A A+ B A+ 52% 4% 44% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A D- F F A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 19% 23% 58% A+ A+ C+ C C D+ A+ F A+
1.49 72% 100% 38% +13 +3 1.33 52% 1.5 .78 14% .33 56% .18 0.80 60% 25% 23% -12 -2 0.75 24% 0.9 .22 16% .11 83% .09
Dec
31		 Virginia Tech D- B F F F+ 32% 11% 57% B+ D- C F D C+ D C+ D A A+ A B+ A+ 25% 38% 37% A+ A+ D+ C C- C- F A- F
0.89 63% 13% 24% -10 +1 0.84 30% 0.8 .23 18% .19 73% .14 0.99 44% 25% 30% -10 -3 0.75 35% 1.1 .39 15% .50 68% .34
Jan
3		 North Carolina St. A B- A+ B- A+ 27% 9% 64% C+ A A- A+ A+ C- C A- C+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 30% 39% A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ F D F
1.18 58% 100% 36% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.4 .50 22% .30 73% .22 0.95 57% 23% 24% -11 -2 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .46 80% .37
Jan
7		 California A A- A+ D- A 39% 12% 49% B A A A+ A+ C A+ C A A+ C- B A+ A+ 27% 37% 37% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.23 65% 83% 28% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 16% .40 65% .26 0.88 62% 33% 17% -10 -3 0.76 16% 0.7 .11 13% .37 86% .32
Jan
10		 Stanford B- A B+ F C+ 35% 20% 46% B- C+ A C A- A D+ A- C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 46% A- A+ B- A+ A+ A C- F D
1.10 69% 44% 24% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 14% .31 82% .26 0.87 61% 25% 23% -9 0 0.85 32% 0.2 .05 20% .34 82% .28
Jan
13		 Louisville A+ D D+ A+ A+ 14% 23% 63% D+ A+ A+ B- A+ D A+ A A+ A+ A+ F C A+ 35% 12% 54% B+ A+ C- A+ A+ D- C+ A+ B+
1.19 50% 30% 44% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 20% .55 79% .43 1.06 33% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 12% .31 67% .21
Jan
17		 SMU A- F D- B C- 29% 22% 49% C C- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ C+ A A+ D D- A+ 40% 40% 19% A A+ B D C+ D+ B D+ B-
1.16 46% 30% 36% -3 -1 0.93 44% 1.4 .61 18% .23 83% .20 1.09 38% 48% 40% -2 -2 0.92 33% 1.2 .39 13% .26 79% .20
Jan
24		 North Carolina A A+ D F B- 37% 20% 43% B+ B A+ A- A+ D+ A+ C A+ D+ C+ C- F D 27% 35% 38% A+ C A+ A+ A+ F C C+ C+
1.18 68% 30% 27% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.1 .47 16% .35 70% .25 1.25 60% 42% 48% +10 -3 1.16 22% 0.9 .19 6% .34 68% .23
Jan
27		 Notre Dame A+ A A+ B- A 36% 15% 49% B A A F+ B- B- A+ B+ A+ D B- D+ F D- 31% 26% 43% B- D A A+ A+ D- F F F
1.28 68% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.9 .30 14% .52 80% .42 1.24 59% 43% 48% +10 -1 1.20 26% 0.7 .17 13% .50 82% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Boston College B+ A A+ F B- 46% 15% 38% B+ B A- F C- A B- A B B- F+ D A+ D+ 33% 39% 28% A+ C A- D- B- C F A F
1.12 67% 50% 20% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.6 .23 11% .31 72% .22 1.01 67% 44% 23% +1 -3 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .47 58% .27
Feb
3		 Pittsburgh C+ C- F B+ B- 38% 8% 54% B+ B- A B- A C+ F F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A B
1.11 56% 25% 38% +2 +2 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 17% .18 44% .08 0.78 64% 22% 24% -8 0 0.85 24% 0.8 .18 28% .28 58% .16
Feb
7		 Syracuse B+ F A+ B+ B- 42% 13% 46% B+ B A+ D B+ B+ D+ C- D+ A A+ F A+ B- 40% 40% 20% A+ B+ A+ F+ B+ A A+ F A+
1.16 35% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 44% 1.0 .44 16% .27 71% .19 0.95 44% 67% 22% +3 -2 1.02 22% 1.2 .26 21% .14 86% .12
Feb
10		 Florida St. F+ F B+ F F 24% 18% 58% C- F+ C+ A+ A C- F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A+ A A+ A+ D F+ C D-
0.90 42% 44% 28% -8 -1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 21% .15 63% .09 0.85 47% 22% 19% -17 0 0.67 24% 0.8 .20 12% .37 73% .27
Feb
14		 Ohio St. C+ B F+ C- C 31% 31% 38% C- C B+ F+ C D+ A+ D- A+ A+ B A- F B+ 27% 49% 24% A+ A A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.06 62% 31% 31% -3 -2 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 18% .60 69% .41 1.00 60% 37% 46% +4 -4 1.02 17% 0.7 .11 12% .16 67% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 6.2 5.8 12.6 1st
2nd 0.1 7.0 32.3 26.9 66.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 9.0 3.3 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 2.6 0.1 4.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 0.2 2.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.8 5.4 18.7 36.3 33.1 5.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 5.8    2.8 3.0
15-3 18.7% 6.2    1.0 4.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 1.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 12.6% 12.6 3.7 8.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 5.8% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.4 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-3 33.1% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 4.3 0.1 1.0 6.0 11.2 10.4 4.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 36.3% 99.9% 10.1% 89.9% 5.1 0.0 0.2 2.0 7.2 13.8 10.2 2.6 0.2 0.0 99.9%
13-5 18.7% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.2 7.2 4.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 5.4% 99.7% 4.1% 95.6% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 0.8% 97.4% 2.6% 94.7% 7.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.3%
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 10.4% 89.5% 5.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 2.2 16.7 46.4 32.1 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 3.2 2.6 14.6 45.3 32.2 4.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 100.0% 3.7 0.6 10.2 34.4 36.2 15.3 3.3