Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#26
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#21
Pace65.2#293
Improvement+1.0#112

Offense
Total Offense+10.5#13
First Shot+6.5#34
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#12
Layup/Dunks+1.4#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#19
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement-0.1#181

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#60
First Shot+6.5#24
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#317
Layups/Dunks+2.3#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#120
Freethrows+3.1#28
Improvement+1.1#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 3.1% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 17.3% 21.8% 8.7%
Top 6 Seed 44.3% 52.0% 29.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.1% 95.1% 86.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.4% 94.6% 85.2%
Average Seed 6.7 6.3 7.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 96.1% 85.5%
Conference Champion 10.9% 14.2% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.2% 2.7% 7.0%
First Round90.0% 93.8% 82.6%
Second Round60.1% 65.0% 50.5%
Sweet Sixteen23.5% 27.1% 16.5%
Elite Eight8.8% 10.3% 5.7%
Final Four3.2% 3.9% 1.9%
Championship Game1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 6
Quad 28 - 213 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 344 Rider W 87-53 99%     1 - 0 +19.2 +18.6 +3.8
  Fri, Nov 7 348 NC Central W 81-62 99%     2 - 0 +3.7 +12.2 -6.3
  Tue, Nov 11 238 Hampton W 91-53 97%     3 - 0 +30.4 +18.5 +13.6
  Sat, Nov 15 161 Marshall W 104-78 95%     4 - 0 +22.9 +21.8 -1.0
  Fri, Nov 21 57 Northwestern W 83-78 72%     5 - 0 +14.0 +12.9 +1.1
  Sun, Nov 23 50 Butler L 73-80 68%     5 - 1 +3.3 +5.8 -2.6
  Fri, Nov 28 211 Queens W 94-69 97%     6 - 1 +18.7 +20.9 +0.0
  Wed, Dec 3 41 @Texas W 88-69 50%     7 - 1 +34.2 +27.0 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 68 Dayton W 86-73 75%     8 - 1 +21.1 +14.1 +6.3
  Tue, Dec 9 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-60 99%     9 - 1 +9.0 +8.9 +1.2
  Sat, Dec 20 94 Maryland W 80-72 87%     10 - 1 +10.9 +11.9 -0.7
  Mon, Dec 22 268 American W 95-51 98%     11 - 1 +35.1 +27.2 +12.2
  Wed, Dec 31 74 @Virginia Tech W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 28 @North Carolina St. L 76-79 40%    
  Wed, Jan 7 65 California W 79-69 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 81 Stanford W 82-71 85%    
  Tue, Jan 13 13 @Louisville L 76-82 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 42 @SMU L 77-78 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 21 North Carolina W 76-74 57%    
  Tue, Jan 27 64 @Notre Dame W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 156 @Boston College W 76-64 86%    
  Tue, Feb 3 84 Pittsburgh W 77-66 85%    
  Sat, Feb 7 75 Syracuse W 80-69 84%    
  Tue, Feb 10 113 @Florida St. W 85-76 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 31 Ohio St. W 77-76 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 129 @Georgia Tech W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 35 Miami (FL) W 79-74 68%    
  Tue, Feb 24 28 North Carolina St. W 79-76 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 4 @Duke L 70-80 19%    
  Tue, Mar 3 61 Wake Forest W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 74 Virginia Tech W 81-71 82%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 3.1 1.2 0.2 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.1 4.0 0.9 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 7.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.4 4.3 0.5 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.8 4.8 0.8 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 4.7 1.6 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.3 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.6 11.2 14.4 16.6 16.3 13.5 8.5 4.0 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 96.7% 1.2    1.0 0.1
16-2 78.3% 3.1    2.0 1.1 0.1
15-3 47.3% 4.0    1.5 1.9 0.5 0.1
14-4 15.6% 2.1    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 5.0 4.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 2.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.0% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 3.3 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.5% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 4.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.5% 100.0% 13.8% 86.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 4.1 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.3% 99.6% 10.1% 89.6% 6.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 4.8 3.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.6%
12-6 16.6% 98.9% 6.3% 92.6% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.5 4.7 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 98.8%
11-7 14.4% 95.6% 4.3% 91.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.8 3.8 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.6 95.4%
10-8 11.2% 89.8% 2.6% 87.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.3 3.1 2.7 0.7 1.2 89.5%
9-9 6.6% 77.9% 1.6% 76.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.5 77.6%
8-10 4.1% 57.2% 1.1% 56.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 1.7 56.8%
7-11 2.0% 30.6% 1.2% 29.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.4 29.7%
6-12 0.9% 11.0% 11.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 11.0%
5-13 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.8%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.1% 8.3% 83.8% 6.7 0.6 1.7 5.6 9.5 12.4 14.5 13.8 12.4 10.2 7.8 3.5 0.1 7.9 91.4%