Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#39
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#81
Pace54.2#358
Improvement+3.1#16

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#118
First Shot+0.2#174
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#89
Layup/Dunks-0.9#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#253
Freethrows+2.8#38
Improvement-0.7#265

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#6
First Shot+8.0#14
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#118
Layups/Dunks+6.0#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#281
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement+3.8#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 8.6% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 14.7% 21.2% 8.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.5% 65.0% 43.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.4% 62.1% 40.2%
Average Seed 8.0 7.6 8.4
.500 or above 87.3% 93.7% 81.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.0% 78.3% 68.2%
Conference Champion 5.7% 7.4% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four5.8% 5.7% 5.9%
First Round50.7% 62.3% 40.2%
Second Round27.8% 35.2% 21.1%
Sweet Sixteen10.3% 13.7% 7.2%
Elite Eight4.1% 5.3% 3.0%
Final Four1.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 214 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 105   Navy L 58-66 81%     0 - 1 -6.6 -6.8 -0.5
  Nov 12, 2021 270   Radford W 73-52 96%     1 - 1 +11.9 +9.7 +5.5
  Nov 16, 2021 7   @ Houston L 47-67 18%     1 - 2 +0.3 -5.9 +2.3
  Nov 19, 2021 309   Coppin St. W 68-52 97%     2 - 2 +4.9 -1.0 +7.5
  Nov 22, 2021 154   Georgia W 65-55 82%     3 - 2 +10.8 -1.7 +13.5
  Nov 23, 2021 55   Providence W 58-40 59%     4 - 2 +26.4 +2.9 +28.1
  Nov 26, 2021 295   Lehigh W 61-43 96%     5 - 2 +7.5 -6.3 +16.5
  Nov 29, 2021 19   Iowa L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 03, 2021 213   Pittsburgh W 65-49 93%    
  Dec 07, 2021 165   @ James Madison W 64-56 76%    
  Dec 18, 2021 329   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-50 99%    
  Dec 22, 2021 45   Clemson W 57-53 63%    
  Jan 01, 2022 78   @ Syracuse W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 04, 2022 45   @ Clemson L 54-56 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 44   @ North Carolina L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 12, 2022 28   Virginia Tech W 57-56 53%    
  Jan 15, 2022 85   Wake Forest W 64-57 75%    
  Jan 19, 2022 213   @ Pittsburgh W 62-52 81%    
  Jan 22, 2022 65   @ North Carolina St. W 60-59 51%    
  Jan 24, 2022 36   Louisville W 58-56 58%    
  Jan 29, 2022 64   @ Notre Dame W 59-58 50%    
  Feb 01, 2022 133   Boston College W 62-51 84%    
  Feb 05, 2022 106   Miami (FL) W 65-56 80%    
  Feb 07, 2022 4   @ Duke L 56-67 16%    
  Feb 12, 2022 84   Georgia Tech W 61-54 75%    
  Feb 14, 2022 28   @ Virginia Tech L 54-59 32%    
  Feb 19, 2022 106   @ Miami (FL) W 62-59 62%    
  Feb 23, 2022 4   Duke L 59-64 34%    
  Feb 26, 2022 24   Florida St. W 60-59 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 36   @ Louisville L 55-59 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.9 2.0 0.3 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.5 3.0 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.6 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.3 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.4 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 4.7 7.1 10.1 11.1 13.2 13.1 11.5 10.0 6.8 4.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 94.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 73.9% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.1
16-4 46.3% 2.0    0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 14.1% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
14-6 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.8% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 3.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.8% 99.4% 14.2% 85.2% 6.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-6 10.0% 95.5% 11.9% 83.6% 7.4 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.5 94.9%
13-7 11.5% 90.6% 7.8% 82.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.0 0.8 0.0 1.1 89.8%
12-8 13.1% 72.5% 5.1% 67.4% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.6 71.0%
11-9 13.2% 46.5% 2.6% 44.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 2.2 0.8 0.0 7.1 45.1%
10-10 11.1% 26.7% 2.3% 24.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 8.2 24.9%
9-11 10.1% 7.6% 1.6% 6.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.3 6.1%
8-12 7.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.7%
7-13 4.7% 0.6% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
6-14 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 3.0
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 53.5% 6.2% 47.3% 8.0 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.6 4.0 5.2 6.3 8.0 7.9 7.4 6.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 46.5 50.4%