Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.8 23
Expected Predictive Rating +19.5 14
Pace 63.9 308
Improvement -0.3 197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #24 B+ A B- C B
Defense B+ #27 A- B+ C C+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 150 62% 89 +2.1 107
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 332 48% 14 -1.9 277
Three Pointers 48% 43 37% 63 +5.6 30
1st FG Attempt 1.13 41 +5.8 41
Second Chance 41.6% 4 1.11 69 0.46 7
Turnovers 15.1% 72
Freethrows 0.31 173 72% 203 0.22 172
Total Offense +9.4 24

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 277 48% 12 +5.5 31
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 13 37% 136 -2.7 346
Three Pointers 36% 313 30% 44 +4.5 22
1st FG Attempt 0.87 12 +7.3 12
Second Chance 26.7% 60 0.88 22 0.24 25
Turnovers 17.3% 159
Freethrows 0.29 128 72% 169 0.21 128
Total Defense +7.3 27

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.1 47 -1.2 22
Shot Type Accuracy +4.4 52 -6.1 16
Possession Length 16.6 99 19.3 363
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 90 0.15 110
Improvement -2.0 #294 +1.7 #97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 3.9% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 35.3% 39.5% 18.7%
Top 6 Seed 80.6% 84.4% 65.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Average Seed 5.2 5.0 5.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 13.1% 15.6% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Second Round80.8% 82.9% 72.8%
Sweet Sixteen37.3% 39.4% 29.3%
Elite Eight13.3% 14.2% 10.0%
Final Four4.9% 5.3% 3.3%
Championship Game1.6% 1.8% 0.8%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 79.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 36 - 4
Quad 29 - 215 - 6
Quad 36 - 020 - 6
Quad 47 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 354 Rider W 87 - 53 99% +17  95% 1 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 C- A+ A- A- +9 B- B A-
 Fri, Nov 7 342 NC Central W 81 - 62 99% +19  100% 2 - 0 C+ +4 B +7 C A C- C -1 A C F+
 Tue, Nov 11 246 Hampton W 91 - 53 98% +24  98% 3 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +18 A A+ D A+ +14 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 161 Marshall W 104 - 78 96% +20  99% 4 - 0 A +23 A+ +18 A A+ A+ B- +2 A F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 64 Northwestern W 83 - 78 79% -1  35% 5 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 D A B B- +4 B- B D
 Sun, Nov 23 76 Butler L 73 - 80 81% -5  1% 5 - 1 C +0 C +1 D- A- A C -1 D- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 203 Queens W 94 - 69 97% +18  99% 6 - 1 A +19 A+ +19 A+ B B B- +2 A+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 33 @Texas W 88 - 69 46% +16  91% 7 - 1 A+ +37 A+ +24 A+ A+ A A+ +14 A+ B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 97 Dayton W 86 - 73 86% +6  70% 8 - 1 A +18 A +11 A+ A+ F B+ +7 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99% +16  97% 9 - 1 B +9 B+ +7 A- C- A+ B- +2 C- C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 111 Maryland W 80 - 72 93% +4  66% 10 - 1 B +9 B+ +8 B- D+ A+ C+ +1 F+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 253 American W 95 - 51 98% +22  97% 11 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +26 A+ A+ A- A+ +15 A+ C+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 59 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 67% -2  22% 11 - 2 0 - 1 C+ +2 D- -7 D D C+ A +12 A+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 28 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 44% +13  95% 12 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +14 A A+ C- A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 70 California W 84 - 60 86% +12  93% 13 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +29 A +13 A A+ C A+ +16 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 77 Stanford W 70 - 55 87% +9  89% 14 - 2 3 - 1 A +19 B- +4 C+ A- A A+ +17 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 11 @Louisville W 79 - 70 29% +9  97% 15 - 2 4 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +17 A+ A+ D+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 37 @SMU W 72 - 68 48% +1  54% 16 - 2 5 - 1 A +21 A +11 C- A+ C+ A +10 A+ C- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 26 North Carolina L 80 - 85 65% +4  74% 16 - 3 5 - 2 B- +8 A +11 B A+ D+ C- -3 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 84 @Notre Dame W 100 - 97 2OT 75% -5  19% 17 - 3 6 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +19 A B C+ D -6 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 128 @Boston College W 73 - 66 86% -1  36% 18 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +12 A- +10 B+ C- A B- +3 C C+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 98 Pittsburgh W 67 - 47 91% +10  85% 19 - 3 8 - 2 A +22 C+ +3 B A- C+ A+ +23 A A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 68 Syracuse W 72 - 59 86% +6  85% 20 - 3 9 - 2 A +18 B+ +8 B- A- B+ A +12 B+ B+ A
 Tue, Feb 10 101 @Florida St. W 82 - 73 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 39 Ohio St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 123 @Georgia Tech W 80 - 69 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 42 Miami (FL) W 78 - 71 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 28 North Carolina St. W 78 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 3 @Duke L 66 - 76 18%
 Tue, Mar 3 71 Wake Forest W 80 - 68 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 59 Virginia Tech W 77 - 67 84%
Totals 26 - 5 14 - 4 +17 A- +9 B+ A B- B+ +7 A- B+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B- A B B 40% 12% 48% B B+ A B- A B- C C C B+ A C+ B+ A- 35% 29% 36% A- A- B B+ B+ C C+ C C+
1.22 62% 48% 37% +4 +1 1.13 42% 1.1 .46 15% .31 72% .22 0.98 48% 37% 30% -6 -1 0.87 27% 0.9 .24 17% .29 72% .22
Nov
3		 Rider A- A- A F D+ 47% 9% 45% B- C- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A- B A D+ C+ 33% 45% 23% A B- C- A B A- F A- F
1.36 68% 50% 29% +2 +2 1.11 54% 1.2 .63 9% .59 56% .33 0.83 46% 28% 33% -9 -4 0.78 33% 0.7 .23 22% .58 62% .36
Nov
7		 NC Central B A+ F B C+ 22% 15% 63% D+ C A+ C- A C- B+ F C- C A+ A+ F A 43% 29% 29% B- A F A C F+ F F+ F
1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 -1 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22 0.99 33% 21% 43% -11 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33
Nov
11		 Hampton A+ C B- A+ A- 53% 10% 37% A A A+ B+ A+ D F+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% F A+ A+ F C+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.36 62% 40% 44% +8 +2 1.22 52% 1.1 .59 19% .31 82% .26 0.79 35% 30% 22% -18 0 0.66 24% 1.2 .29 16% .20 64% .12
Nov
15		 Marshall A+ C- B+ A+ A- 42% 13% 45% A- A C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 28% 30% 42% B A B- F F B- F F+ F
1.37 57% 43% 44% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.5 .51 12% .54 72% .39 1.03 47% 50% 23% -7 -2 0.85 31% 1.8 .56 20% .40 79% .31
Nov
21		 Northwestern A- F+ A- F D 40% 23% 36% C+ D A+ D+ A B A+ A+ A+ B- C+ A- F C+ 42% 30% 28% B B- A+ F B D D B C-
1.17 47% 45% 24% -8 0 0.85 53% 0.9 .45 16% .60 83% .50 1.10 59% 31% 40% +1 -1 1.02 18% 1.8 .32 10% .38 71% .27
Nov
23		 Butler C D- C- F F 47% 11% 42% A- D- A B- A- A B- F D C B- F F F+ 48% 22% 30% B- D- D A+ A+ A- F C+ F
1.06 50% 33% 26% -9 +2 0.87 38% 1.0 .38 13% .25 47% .12 1.16 55% 60% 43% +7 +1 1.17 40% 0.6 .23 19% .52 69% .36
Nov
28		 Queens A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ A+ D B B B D- C+ B- A C+ A A+ 34% 22% 44% B+ A+ F C- F C+ D A C
1.46 69% 60% 50% +20 +1 1.43 45% 0.9 .42 12% .39 68% .27 1.07 47% 36% 27% -8 -1 0.84 40% 1.1 .44 17% .34 67% .22
Dec
3		 Texas A+ B+ D- A+ A+ 40% 15% 46% A- A+ C A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 22% 34% C A+ A- C B+ F+ D+ A C+
1.35 63% 29% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.7 .41 11% .50 69% .34 1.06 55% 27% 24% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 11% .43 68% .29
Dec
6		 Dayton A B A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% B- A+ D+ A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B+ B A D B 43% 23% 34% B+ B A A+ A+ F A- B- A
1.17 63% 50% 56% +18 0 1.38 27% 1.7 .45 29% .51 74% .38 0.99 54% 23% 37% -4 0 0.95 20% 0.7 .14 12% .34 73% .25
Dec
9		 Maryland Eastern Shore B+ D+ D+ A+ B+ 49% 5% 45% A A- D+ B- C- A+ F C F+ B- A F A C+ 56% 21% 23% F C- A F C+ C- A- F B
1.25 56% 33% 44% +5 +3 1.18 28% 1.2 .34 10% .25 73% .18 0.90 45% 64% 25% -5 +1 0.94 21% 1.2 .24 22% .15 88% .13
Dec
20		 Maryland B+ C F+ B+ C 53% 13% 34% A- B- A+ F D+ A+ A- F B- C+ C B- F F 21% 26% 53% A+ F+ F A+ B- A+ F C F
1.19 57% 29% 39% +1 +2 1.08 40% 0.6 .25 12% .35 62% .22 1.07 56% 36% 43% +7 -2 1.12 49% 0.7 .34 28% .46 73% .33
Dec
22		 American A+ A A+ B+ A+ 52% 4% 44% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- D- F F A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 19% 23% 58% A+ A+ C+ C C+ D+ A+ F A+
1.49 72% 100% 38% +13 +3 1.33 52% 1.5 .78 14% .33 56% .18 0.80 60% 25% 23% -12 -2 0.75 24% 0.9 .22 16% .11 83% .09
Dec
31		 Virginia Tech D- B F F F+ 32% 11% 57% B+ D C F D C+ D C+ D A A+ A B A+ 25% 38% 37% A+ A+ C- C C- C F B+ F
0.89 63% 13% 24% -10 +1 0.84 30% 0.8 .23 18% .19 73% .14 0.99 44% 25% 30% -10 -3 0.75 35% 1.1 .39 15% .50 68% .34
Jan
3		 North Carolina St. A+ B- A+ B- A+ 27% 9% 64% C+ A A A+ A+ C- C B+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 30% 39% A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ F D F
1.18 58% 100% 36% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.4 .50 22% .30 73% .22 0.95 57% 23% 24% -11 -2 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .46 80% .37
Jan
7		 California A A- A+ D- A 39% 12% 49% B A A+ A+ A+ C A+ C A A+ C- B A+ A+ 27% 37% 37% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.23 65% 83% 28% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 16% .40 65% .26 0.88 62% 33% 17% -10 -3 0.76 16% 0.7 .11 13% .37 86% .32
Jan
10		 Stanford B- A B+ F C+ 35% 20% 46% B- C+ A C A- A D+ A C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 46% A- A+ B A+ A+ A C F D
1.10 69% 44% 24% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 14% .31 82% .26 0.87 61% 25% 23% -9 0 0.85 32% 0.2 .05 20% .34 82% .28
Jan
13		 Louisville A+ D+ D+ A+ A+ 14% 23% 63% D+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F C A+ 35% 12% 54% B A+ C- A+ A+ D- C+ A+ B+
1.19 50% 30% 44% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 20% .55 79% .43 1.06 33% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 12% .31 67% .21
Jan
17		 SMU A F D- B C- 29% 22% 49% C C- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ C+ A A+ D D- A+ 40% 40% 19% A A+ B D- C- D+ B D+ B-
1.16 46% 30% 36% -3 -1 0.93 44% 1.4 .61 18% .23 83% .20 1.09 38% 48% 40% -2 -2 0.92 33% 1.2 .39 13% .26 79% .20
Jan
24		 North Carolina A A+ D F B- 37% 20% 43% A- B A+ A- A+ D+ A+ C A+ C- C+ C- F D 27% 35% 38% A+ C A+ A+ A+ F C+ C C+
1.18 68% 30% 27% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.1 .47 16% .35 70% .25 1.25 60% 42% 48% +10 -3 1.16 22% 0.9 .19 6% .34 68% .23
Jan
27		 Notre Dame A+ A A+ B- A 36% 15% 49% B A A D- B C+ A+ A- A+ D C+ D+ F F+ 31% 26% 43% B- D- A A+ A+ D- F F F
1.28 68% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.9 .30 14% .52 80% .42 1.24 59% 43% 48% +10 -1 1.20 26% 0.7 .17 13% .50 82% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Boston College A- A A+ F B 46% 15% 38% B+ B+ A- F C- A C+ A B B- F+ D A+ D+ 33% 39% 28% A+ C A- F+ C+ C F A F
1.12 67% 50% 20% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.6 .23 11% .31 72% .22 1.01 67% 44% 23% +1 -3 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .47 58% .27
Feb
3		 Pittsburgh C+ C- F B+ B- 38% 8% 54% B+ B A B- A- C+ F F F A+ D A+ A+ A+ 35% 23% 43% B A A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A B
1.11 56% 25% 38% +2 +2 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 17% .18 44% .08 0.78 64% 22% 24% -8 0 0.85 24% 0.8 .18 28% .28 58% .16
Feb
7		 Syracuse B+ F A+ B B- 42% 13% 46% B B- A+ D+ A- B+ D+ D+ D+ A A+ F A+ B- 40% 40% 20% A+ B+ A+ D- B+ A A+ F A+
1.16 35% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 44% 1.0 .44 16% .27 71% .19 0.95 44% 67% 22% +3 -2 1.02 22% 1.2 .26 21% .14 86% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.8 6.8 5.6 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.9 20.8 19.3 0.1 43.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 11.1 12.8 1.8 26.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 6.6 0.4 10.4 4th
5th 0.6 3.2 0.7 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.3 1.9 8.0 21.4 34.8 27.9 5.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 98.7% 5.6    2.9 2.5 0.2
15-3 24.2% 6.8    1.0 3.7 2.0 0.1
14-4 2.3% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 13.1% 13.1 3.9 6.3 2.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 5.6% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 27.9% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 4.3 0.2 1.2 5.8 9.6 7.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 100.0%
14-4 34.8% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 5.1 0.0 0.3 2.7 7.8 11.1 8.8 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 21.4% 99.7% 7.2% 92.6% 6.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.9 6.5 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.7%
12-6 8.0% 99.4% 4.9% 94.5% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 1.9% 98.2% 4.4% 93.8% 7.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
10-8 0.3% 92.7% 3.6% 89.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.5%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 10.9% 88.9% 5.2 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.9 27.2 55.1 17.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 2.8 7.1 28.6 44.9 18.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 3.1 3.7 18.8 47.3 24.5 5.7