Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.3 #36
Expected Predictive Rating +15.3 #32
Pace 72.8 #89
Improvement -0.2 #192

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #54 A- C+ B+ B- A
Defense #31 B B C A- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 53% #1 1.28 #65 +11.3 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #278 0.92 #23 -0.5 #205
Three Pointers 32% #338 1.02 #173 -4.5 #311
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #37 +6.3 #38
Freethrows 19.2 #91 70% #237 13.5 #122
Second Chance 39.5% #15 1.00 #238 0.39 #53
Turnovers 15.6% #111
Total Offense +6.5 #54

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 1.12 #129 +3.4 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #123 0.52 #5 +1.9 #61
Three Pointers 44% #106 0.99 #170 -1.0 #223
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #59 +4.3 #59
Freethrows 16.9 #175 63% #4 10.6 #63
Second Chance 27.0% #69 1.13 #280 0.31 #156
Turnovers 20.4% #28
Total Defense +6.8 #31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.4% #20 -1.1% #85
Shot Type Make Effect 8.7% #60 -7.3% #61
Possession Length 15.7 #54 17.9 #288
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #63 0.12 #41
Improvement +0.5 #140 -0.8 #234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 4.8% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 14.1% 19.5% 7.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.5% 78.2% 58.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.9% 76.9% 57.3%
Average Seed 8.2 7.9 8.8
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 96.4% 85.8%
Conference Champion 8.6% 12.6% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four10.2% 8.6% 12.2%
First Round64.3% 74.0% 52.5%
Second Round35.5% 42.6% 26.8%
Sweet Sixteen10.1% 12.6% 7.0%
Elite Eight3.5% 4.4% 2.4%
Final Four1.0% 1.2% 0.8%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 24 - 19 - 9
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 316 Jacksonville W 86-69 98%     9.1   1 - 0 +4.6 +3.5 +0.2
  Thu, Nov 6 278 Bethune-Cookman W 101-61 97%     19.6   2 - 0 +30.5 +20.0 +9.3
  Mon, Nov 10 350 Stetson W 102-61 99%     18.4   3 - 0 +25.2 +10.2 +10.4
  Sun, Nov 16 13 Florida L 68-82 32%     -7.4   3 - 1 +4.2 -1.1 +6.5
  Thu, Nov 20 166 Elon W 99-72 93%     9.5   4 - 1 +23.3 +15.2 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 23 346 Delaware St. W 97-41 99%     31.3   5 - 1 +40.7 +20.0 +20.3
  Thu, Nov 27 10 BYU L 62-72 27%     -3.1   5 - 2 +9.7 -1.6 +11.2
  Fri, Nov 28 101 Georgetown W 78-65 78%     14.4   6 - 2 +18.3 +12.0 +7.2
  Tue, Dec 2 61 @Mississippi W 75-66 55%     8.3   7 - 2 +21.1 +12.2 +9.2
  Sat, Dec 6 212 Southern Miss W 88-64 95%     4.9   8 - 2 +17.8 +7.7 +8.9
  Sat, Dec 13 353 Louisiana Monroe W 104-79 99%     11.9   9 - 2 +8.6 +21.2 -12.9
  Tue, Dec 16 185 Florida International W 98-81 94%     5.9   10 - 2 +12.5 +14.6 -3.4
  Sun, Dec 21 347 North Florida W 105-67 99%     17.6   11 - 2 +22.5 +13.6 +6.3
  Tue, Dec 30 83 Pittsburgh W 76-69 81%     -0.8   12 - 2 1 - 0 +11.0 +8.4 +3.0
  Wed, Jan 7 62 @Wake Forest W 77-76 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 115 Georgia Tech W 83-70 88%    
  Tue, Jan 13 60 @Notre Dame W 71-70 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 41 @Clemson L 70-72 41%    
  Tue, Jan 20 112 Florida St. W 88-75 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 75 @Syracuse W 76-73 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 91 Stanford W 81-71 82%    
  Sat, Jan 31 76 California W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 156 @Boston College W 76-66 82%    
  Tue, Feb 10 22 North Carolina W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 14 25 @North Carolina St. L 76-81 32%    
  Tue, Feb 17 65 Virginia Tech W 80-72 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 32 @Virginia L 74-78 36%    
  Tue, Feb 24 112 @Florida St. W 85-78 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 156 Boston College W 79-63 93%    
  Wed, Mar 4 35 @SMU L 78-81 38%    
  Sat, Mar 7 12 Louisville L 79-82 39%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 8.6 1st
2nd 0.5 3.2 5.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 7.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 7.0 3.9 0.4 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.2 5.1 0.8 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 5.7 1.4 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 2.6 0.2 7.8 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.1 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 1.6 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.8 8.8 12.4 15.9 17.1 15.4 11.3 6.9 2.7 1.0 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 95.9% 0.9    0.7 0.2
16-2 80.1% 2.1    1.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 45.4% 3.1    1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1
14-4 17.6% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 3.5 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.7% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.9% 99.7% 11.0% 88.7% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-4 11.3% 98.0% 9.3% 88.7% 7.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.2 97.8%
13-5 15.4% 92.9% 6.4% 86.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.0 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 92.5%
12-6 17.1% 82.9% 4.4% 78.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.0 4.2 4.0 1.5 2.9 82.1%
11-7 15.9% 66.2% 2.3% 63.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.9 2.7 0.0 5.4 65.4%
10-8 12.4% 44.9% 1.3% 43.6% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.1 2.4 0.1 6.8 44.2%
9-9 8.8% 28.4% 0.8% 27.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.0 6.3 27.8%
8-10 4.8% 12.1% 12.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 4.2 12.1%
7-11 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 2.3 1.3%
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 69.5% 4.8% 64.7% 8.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.2 6.7 9.2 11.5 12.4 13.2 8.9 0.2 30.5 67.9%