Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#35
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#34
Pace73.3#77
Improvement+0.0#181

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#53
First Shot+5.7#46
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#131
Layup/Dunks+11.6#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#312
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement+0.6#126

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#26
First Shot+7.9#13
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#267
Layups/Dunks+5.1#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#251
Freethrows+1.6#80
Improvement-0.7#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.8% 4.4% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 15.7% 17.6% 7.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.4% 73.3% 57.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.8% 71.8% 56.0%
Average Seed 8.1 8.0 8.8
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 92.9% 78.5%
Conference Champion 8.0% 9.3% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four9.7% 9.3% 11.5%
First Round65.8% 69.0% 51.3%
Second Round36.5% 39.1% 25.3%
Sweet Sixteen10.4% 11.4% 6.0%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.9% 1.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 25 - 19 - 9
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 317 Jacksonville W 86-69 98%     1 - 0 +4.9 +3.6 +0.5
  Thu, Nov 6 269 Bethune-Cookman W 101-61 97%     2 - 0 +31.1 +20.5 +9.3
  Mon, Nov 10 349 Stetson W 102-61 99%     3 - 0 +25.6 +10.3 +10.7
  Sun, Nov 16 12 Florida L 68-82 32%     3 - 1 +4.0 -1.3 +6.5
  Thu, Nov 20 166 Elon W 99-72 93%     4 - 1 +23.5 +16.1 +6.2
  Sun, Nov 23 346 Delaware St. W 97-41 99%     5 - 1 +40.9 +19.4 +21.0
  Thu, Nov 27 11 BYU L 62-72 27%     5 - 2 +9.6 -1.5 +11.0
  Fri, Nov 28 99 Georgetown W 78-65 77%     6 - 2 +18.4 +12.9 +6.5
  Tue, Dec 2 63 @Mississippi W 75-66 57%     7 - 2 +20.5 +11.6 +9.2
  Sat, Dec 6 207 Southern Miss W 88-64 95%     8 - 2 +18.0 +7.7 +9.1
  Sat, Dec 13 359 Louisiana Monroe W 104-79 99%     9 - 2 +7.1 +20.6 -13.8
  Tue, Dec 16 182 Florida International W 98-81 94%     10 - 2 +12.4 +15.5 -4.4
  Sun, Dec 21 350 North Florida W 105-67 99%     11 - 2 +22.4 +14.1 +5.7
  Tue, Dec 30 84 Pittsburgh W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Jan 7 61 @Wake Forest W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 129 Georgia Tech W 83-69 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 64 @Notre Dame W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Jan 17 40 @Clemson L 70-72 43%    
  Tue, Jan 20 113 Florida St. W 88-75 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 75 @Syracuse W 77-74 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 81 Stanford W 82-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 65 California W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 156 @Boston College W 76-66 82%    
  Tue, Feb 10 21 North Carolina W 77-76 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 28 @North Carolina St. L 77-82 34%    
  Tue, Feb 17 74 Virginia Tech W 81-72 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 26 @Virginia L 74-79 32%    
  Tue, Feb 24 113 @Florida St. W 85-78 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 156 Boston College W 79-63 93%    
  Wed, Mar 4 42 @SMU L 78-80 43%    
  Sat, Mar 7 13 Louisville L 80-82 44%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.6 3.4 0.8 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 6.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.3 4.1 0.5 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.1 5.1 0.8 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 5.2 1.5 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.8 2.4 0.2 8.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.8 1.4 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.3 2.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.3 8.4 13.0 15.3 16.7 15.0 10.9 6.8 3.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-1 91.3% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-2 74.5% 2.3    1.4 0.8 0.1
15-3 43.8% 3.0    1.0 1.5 0.4 0.1
14-4 13.6% 1.5    0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 3.5 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.8% 99.5% 12.3% 87.2% 5.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-4 10.9% 98.3% 9.8% 88.4% 6.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.1%
13-5 15.0% 93.8% 6.9% 86.9% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 3.9 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.9 93.3%
12-6 16.7% 84.5% 4.3% 80.2% 8.9 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 4.2 3.5 1.1 2.6 83.8%
11-7 15.3% 70.6% 2.5% 68.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.0 2.5 0.0 4.5 69.8%
10-8 13.0% 50.5% 1.4% 49.2% 10.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.7 0.1 6.4 49.8%
9-9 8.4% 29.3% 0.7% 28.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.1 6.0 28.8%
8-10 5.3% 12.2% 0.8% 11.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 4.6 11.6%
7-11 2.7% 3.2% 0.1% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 3.1%
6-12 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 1.2 0.9%
5-13 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.5 0.7%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 70.4% 5.0% 65.4% 8.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.4 9.3 11.2 12.6 12.7 8.5 0.2 29.6 68.8%