Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.1 40
Expected Predictive Rating +15.6 31
Pace 70.3 130
Improvement -2.5 282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 51 B+ B+ C+ C+ B
Defense B+ 35 B- B B B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% 1 B+ 66% 35 +11.1 2
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 176 C+ 40% 110 -0.5 201
Three Pointers 31% 349 C 34% 168 -5.1 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 44 B +4.3 51
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 38
Second Chance A- 38.4% 15 C+ 1.06 131 B+ 0.41 28
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 116
Freethrows B 0.34 66 D 69% 300 C+ 0.23 126
Total Offense B+ +6.8 51

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 54 C+ 10.3% 136
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 270 B 2.8% 40
Three Pointers B+ 92% 30 C+ 0.7% 124
Total C+ 58% 124 C- 6.0% 220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 300 B- 54% 77 -4.0 56
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 60 B+ 34% 35 +0.5 221
Three Pointers 41% 171 C- 35% 222 +0.6 213
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 58 B- -2.1 96
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 83
Second Chance A- 24.2% 16 C- 1.06 237 B 0.26 48
Turnovers B 19.4% 48
Freethrows B+ 0.25 29 A- 68% 13 B+ 0.17 20
Total Defense B+ +6.3 35

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 215 B- 14.4% 61
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 311 D+ 3.2% 285
Three Pointers C+ 82% 128 C 1.0% 144
Total C- 58% 231 C+ 6.1% 137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 47 18.4 324
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 59 0.11 27
Improvement -0.5 #215 -2.0 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 47 39 30
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 14 - 4
Conference Finish 6 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None 9 6
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 9% 19% 5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89% 95% 87%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88% 95% 86%
Average Seed 8.4 7.7 8.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 1% 6%
First Round86% 95% 84%
Second Round41% 49% 38%
Sweet Sixteen8% 11% 7%
Elite Eight2% 3% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 6
Quad 26 - 111 - 7
Quad 34 - 114 - 8
Quad 410 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 308 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 98% +9  93% 1 - 0 B- +5 C +1 C A+ F B- +3 D- A B-
 Thu, Nov 6 241 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 96% +20  98% 2 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +21 A+ D A+ A +10 A+ D D+
 Mon, Nov 10 327 Stetson W 102 - 61 98% +18  72% 3 - 0 A+ +27 B +7 A- D C A+ +16 A+ C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 4 Florida L 68 - 82 17% -7  5% 3 - 1 B +9 C- -1 C C- A- A+ +12 B- A+ B
 Thu, Nov 20 203 Elon W 99 - 72 95% +10  99% 4 - 1 A +21 A +13 B+ A+ B A- +7 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 361 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  95% 5 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +16 A+ B- B+ A+ +20 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 21 BYU L 62 - 72 34% -3  37% 5 - 2 B- +7 D- -7 F B+ B A+ +14 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 74 Georgetown W 78 - 65 69% +14  99% 6 - 2 A +21 A +11 A+ B F A +10 A+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 2 73 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 58% +8  86% 7 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 A+ A+ F A+ +12 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 245 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 96% +5  47% 8 - 2 A- +17 B +6 B- B+ D+ A +9 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 353 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  99% 9 - 2 B- +8 A+ +18 A+ B- A F -10 F D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 185 Florida International W 98 - 81 94% +6  77% 10 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A+ B- A C- -2 D+ C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 339 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  92% 11 - 2 A+ +23 A- +10 A B- C- A +10 A D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 101 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 85% -1  42% 12 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 B +6 F A+ B B +4 A- C F
 Wed, Jan 7 61 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 54% -1  32% 13 - 2 2 - 0 A- +16 A +12 C A+ B- B +4 F+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 141 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 91% +10  99% 14 - 2 3 - 0 B- +8 A- +10 A C+ A C- -3 C B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 84 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 62% +5  80% 15 - 2 4 - 0 A +22 A +13 A D+ A- A +10 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 38 @Clemson L 59 - 69 37% -9  0% 15 - 3 4 - 1 B- +7 C- -1 C B F A- +7 D- A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 86 Florida St. L 63 - 65 81% -0  40% 15 - 4 4 - 2 C+ +2 F -10 F B- C- A+ +12 C- A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 70 @Syracuse W 85 - 76 58% +6  96% 16 - 4 5 - 2 A +20 A+ +15 A+ A+ F B +5 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 75 Stanford W 79 - 70 79% +1  59% 17 - 4 6 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 A- B A+ B +4 B- D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 71 California L 85 - 86 78% +2  54% 17 - 5 6 - 3 C+ +4 A+ +15 A A+ A+ F -11 C B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 135 @Boston College W 74 - 68 79% +4  95% 18 - 5 7 - 3 B +11 B- +5 A+ D+ D- B+ +6 A- C F
 Tue, Feb 10 30 North Carolina W 75 - 66 55% +4  93% 19 - 5 8 - 3 A +21 B- +5 B+ C+ B+ A+ +16 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 24 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 29% -1  26% 20 - 5 9 - 3 A +20 A+ +15 C- A+ A+ B +5 C+ C+ B+
 Tue, Feb 17 59 Virginia Tech W 67 - 66 74% -1  30% 21 - 5 10 - 3 B- +7 C+ +2 D A+ B B +5 D A B
 Sat, Feb 21 22 @Virginia L 69 - 76 25%
 Tue, Feb 24 86 @Florida St. W 82 - 79 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 135 Boston College W 78 - 63 92%
 Wed, Mar 4 32 @SMU L 79 - 84 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 12 Louisville L 79 - 82 38%
Totals 24 - 7 13 - 5 +13 B+ +7 B- B B B+ +6 C D C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ C+ C B 51% 38% 31% B B+ A- C+ B+ C+ B D C+ B+ B- B+ C- B- 34% 25% 41% B B- A- C- B B B+ A- B+
1.18 66% 40% 34% +4 +1 1.13 38% 1.1 .41 16% .34 69% .23 1.00 54% 34% 35% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 19% .25 68% .23
Nov
3		 Jacksonville C A C+ F D+ 61% 11% 27% A C B A+ A+ F A+ A A+ B- F B B D- 33% 17% 50% C- D- A+ F+ A B- B A+ A
1.17 74% 40% 17% +3 +3 1.14 35% 2.0 .70 20% .63 78% .49 0.94 72% 33% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 19% .23 50% .12
Nov
6		 Bethune-Cookman A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 61% 14% 25% B+ A+ C+ F D A+ C D C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% B A+ D D D D+ C C C
1.40 72% 38% 47% +13 +3 1.34 33% 0.9 .30 8% .33 68% .23 0.84 44% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 31% 1.1 .33 17% .32 68% .22
Nov
10		 Stetson B B+ A+ B- B+ 52% 12% 37% A- A- C F+ D C A+ D A A+ F A+ A A+ 20% 29% 51% A A+ A- F C+ B+ F A+ D-
1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27 0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24
Nov
16		 Florida C- F F A+ D+ 55% 26% 19% A C A F C- A- A+ F B A+ B- F B- B- 43% 6% 51% C- B- A+ A- A+ B F A- D-
0.89 41% 27% 45% -9 +1 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 13% .40 56% .22 1.07 59% 67% 31% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.9 .28 18% .46 66% .30
Nov
20		 Elon A A- C- A B+ 44% 20% 35% C+ B+ A+ B+ A+ B A- C- B+ A- D+ B- F F 46% 13% 41% C+ F A+ F A A+ C- A+ B
1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25 0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +1 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18
Nov
23		 Delaware St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% C+ A+ B+ D+ B- B+ C- F F+ A+ A A B A- 33% 36% 31% C B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ B-
1.37 84% 25% 45% +17 +1 1.38 38% 1.1 .41 16% .32 58% .18 0.58 40% 25% 29% -13 -2 0.71 25% 0.1 .02 27% .33 53% .17
Nov
27		 BYU D- F C+ F F 51% 15% 34% A+ F B B- B+ B B+ F D- A+ A+ B F B+ 43% 23% 34% D+ B A+ A A+ A D+ A+ C+
0.90 41% 38% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.2 .38 15% .29 41% .12 1.05 45% 36% 50% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 19% .36 65% .23
Nov
28		 Georgetown A D- A+ A+ A+ 56% 22% 22% A A+ B+ C B F B- B- B A B A+ A+ A+ 33% 22% 46% C+ A+ F F F B+ F A D
1.20 48% 90% 60% +15 +1 1.33 36% 1.0 .36 23% .32 75% .24 1.00 53% 10% 24% -15 -1 0.72 40% 1.4 .55 17% .44 67% .30
Dec
2		 Mississippi B+ C- B- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% A A+ A+ C A+ F C- D+ C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ 16% 40% 44% A A+ C- D+ D+ B+ A+ F+ A
1.12 53% 40% 47% +7 +2 1.19 50% 1.1 .53 28% .31 67% .21 0.98 33% 23% 38% -8 -4 0.78 32% 1.1 .36 16% .20 82% .16
Dec
6		 Southern Miss B A D- B- B- 45% 24% 31% C- B- A+ F B+ D+ B+ B- B+ A C A- A+ B 41% 30% 28% C- B- F+ F F A+ C+ A- B
1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28 0.87 58% 29% 23% -8 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24
Dec
13		 Louisiana Monroe A+ A- A- A+ A 59% 3% 38% A+ A+ A D- B- A C+ F D F B- A+ F F 29% 18% 54% C F C+ F D+ D- A A+ A+
1.47 71% 50% 45% +14 +4 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 11% .27 53% .14 1.11 50% 20% 47% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.2 .28 14% .23 57% .13
Dec
16		 Florida International A A+ A+ D A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ A D B- A A+ C- A+ C- D- F A+ D 43% 26% 30% B D+ D+ B+ C+ C+ D+ C+ C-
1.29 74% 80% 30% +11 +3 1.29 44% 0.9 .41 16% .49 71% .34 1.07 65% 50% 25% +2 0 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 18% .34 67% .23
Dec
21		 North Florida A- A A+ D- A 47% 16% 36% C+ A A+ F B- C- A+ C- A+ A A A+ C A+ 27% 14% 59% B A B F D A+ D- F F
1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31 0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25
Dec
30		 Pittsburgh B B+ A- F F 38% 24% 38% D+ F A+ B+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ B D D+ A+ B+ 32% 26% 42% A A- A+ F C F C A+ B+
1.15 65% 45% 12% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.1 .46 15% .46 77% .36 1.04 65% 43% 23% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 11% .29 53% .15
Jan
7		 Wake Forest A A+ B+ F C 49% 16% 36% B+ C A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B A+ B A+ F F F 27% 31% 41% A+ F+ A+ F A+ B+ A- B+ A
1.18 73% 43% 13% -4 +1 0.98 45% 1.3 .59 19% .54 77% .41 1.12 36% 63% 52% +13 -2 1.24 14% 1.8 .25 18% .25 71% .18
Jan
10		 Georgia Tech A- A+ F B A 35% 19% 46% B- A D A+ C+ A A+ D- A+ C- D- C F D 31% 45% 24% A+ C A- C B+ C+ F F F
1.22 78% 20% 38% +6 0 1.13 25% 1.4 .34 11% .48 66% .32 1.09 67% 36% 42% +5 -4 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 19% .45 85% .38
Jan
13		 Notre Dame A A+ A+ D A 37% 24% 39% C+ A C+ F D+ A- A- A- A A B- F B C+ 28% 28% 44% B+ C+ D B- C- A+ D B D+
1.20 74% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 12% .35 81% .28 1.02 58% 58% 32% +4 -2 1.07 38% 0.9 .34 27% .36 67% .24
Jan
17		 Clemson C- B- F D- C- 36% 19% 45% B C A C- B F C B C+ A- B F F D- 51% 15% 34% D+ D- A+ B- A+ A- A+ B- A+
0.91 59% 22% 29% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 25% .29 79% .23 1.07 54% 57% 50% +9 +2 1.23 15% 1.0 .15 19% .19 70% .13
Jan
20		 Florida St. F C+ F F F 49% 24% 27% B- F D+ A+ B- C- C B- C A+ B- F+ D- D+ 41% 27% 33% A C- A+ A+ A+ A B C B
0.91 58% 17% 23% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.2 .31 20% .27 73% .20 0.94 55% 46% 38% +3 -1 1.06 13% 0.5 .07 19% .27 73% .20
Jan
24		 Syracuse A+ A- A A+ A+ 57% 19% 23% B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F C- A C+ B C+ F B- C 43% 25% 32% B C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A
1.23 63% 44% 55% +11 +2 1.28 33% 1.6 .54 23% .28 80% .23 1.10 58% 57% 33% +5 0 1.11 15% 0.8 .12 9% .24 67% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Stanford A- B C A A- 51% 28% 21% B- A- A+ F B A+ A+ F A B A+ A+ F B- 41% 16% 43% B+ B- C D D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 63% 38% 40% +4 0 1.11 47% 0.7 .34 13% .54 61% .33 1.05 43% 25% 45% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.1 .38 21% .19 50% .09
Jan
31		 California A+ A+ D+ D- A+ 44% 31% 24% D A D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F F A+ F+ C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A- D+ B F+ F B- F
1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38 1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40
Feb
7		 Boston College B- A- D+ B A 58% 13% 29% A+ A+ C D- D+ D- A+ F B B+ B- A B A- 25% 29% 46% B+ A- A+ F C F A+ D- A
1.06 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.8 .21 19% .44 52% .23 0.97 53% 29% 30% -7 -2 0.85 18% 1.7 .30 10% .16 70% .11
Feb
10		 North Carolina B- A+ D+ D- A- 44% 37% 19% C- B+ B+ D- C+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ B A B A+ 32% 25% 44% A- A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ F A+
1.08 70% 32% 30% +2 -2 1.02 32% 0.8 .24 12% .37 61% .23 0.95 56% 29% 32% -4 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 16% .17 80% .14
Feb
14		 North Carolina St. A+ B- D+ F D+ 61% 18% 22% B+ C- A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ F D+ B C+ D- D C+ 35% 18% 47% B C+ C+ C C+ B+ B+ F C+
1.19 58% 33% 18% -6 +2 0.94 49% 1.1 .54 14% .36 50% .18 1.17 59% 44% 39% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.3 .36 15% .27 87% .24
Feb
17		 Virginia Tech C+ B+ F F D 40% 30% 30% D+ D B+ A+ A+ B C+ D+ C B D+ C F D 40% 22% 38% C D A B A B A+ A A+
1.07 65% 27% 20% -7 -1 0.86 35% 1.5 .51 16% .25 69% .17 1.05 65% 36% 42% +7 0 1.16 26% 1.0 .26 18% .06 67% .04



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 5.1 10.2 2.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 7.2 23.3 3.7 34.2 3rd
4th 0.5 17.6 4.0 22.2 4th
5th 3.8 9.5 0.1 13.5 5th
6th 0.2 7.1 1.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.6 2.7 3.3 7th
8th 0.5 0.2 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.3 14.4 35.4 32.5 14.0 2.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 14.5% 0.3    0.0 0.3 0.1
14-4 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.4% 99.7% 5.7% 94.0% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-4 14.0% 98.2% 5.0% 93.2% 7.1 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 98.1%
13-5 32.5% 95.2% 3.1% 92.1% 8.1 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.3 10.4 8.5 3.0 0.3 1.6 95.1%
12-6 35.4% 86.3% 1.9% 84.4% 9.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.6 10.5 8.7 2.5 4.8 86.0%
11-7 14.4% 72.9% 1.1% 71.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.3 2.6 0.0 3.9 72.6%
10-8 1.3% 51.2% 0.3% 50.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 51.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.8% 2.7% 86.1% 8.4 11.2 88.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 2.4 31.7 31.7 29.3 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 5.3 0.7 9.5 48.2 40.1 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 5.9 1.0 3.0 28.2 42.1 23.3 2.5
Lose Out 0.6% 31.5% 10.8 0.5 6.5 23.9 0.5