Duke
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#8
Expected Predictive Rating+21.2#2
Pace73.6#77
Improvement-1.6#287

Offense
Total Offense+9.3#12
First Shot+10.2#6
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#237
Layup/Dunks+9.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement-1.6#302

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#10
First Shot+9.1#9
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#245
Layups/Dunks+0.6#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#88
Freethrows+4.8#4
Improvement+0.0#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.9% 5.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 25.2% 25.2% 33.3%
Top 2 Seed 47.7% 47.7% 44.4%
Top 4 Seed 76.0% 76.0% 44.4%
Top 6 Seed 90.0% 90.0% 66.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.2% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 98.7% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.2 3.2 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.6% 100.0%
Conference Champion 55.7% 55.7% 44.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round99.0% 99.0% 100.0%
Second Round85.8% 85.7% 100.0%
Sweet Sixteen57.6% 57.6% 55.6%
Elite Eight33.7% 33.7% 33.3%
Final Four18.3% 18.2% 22.2%
Championship Game9.7% 9.7% 22.2%
National Champion4.7% 4.7% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 4
Quad 27 - 115 - 6
Quad 35 - 020 - 6
Quad 47 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 15   Kentucky W 79-71 59%     1 - 0 +23.2 +9.1 +13.7
  Nov 12, 2021 265   Army W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +17.4 -2.2 +16.9
  Nov 13, 2021 171   Campbell W 67-56 96%     3 - 0 +7.8 +4.6 +5.2
  Nov 16, 2021 216   Gardner-Webb W 92-52 97%     4 - 0 +35.0 +14.7 +18.8
  Nov 19, 2021 294   Lafayette W 88-55 99%     5 - 0 +22.4 +6.6 +14.9
  Nov 22, 2021 238   The Citadel W 107-81 98%     6 - 0 +18.9 +25.6 -7.4
  Nov 26, 2021 2   Gonzaga W 84-81 39%     7 - 0 +23.1 +8.4 +14.4
  Nov 30, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 66-71 53%     7 - 1 +11.7 -1.0 +12.7
  Dec 14, 2021 352   South Carolina St. W 96-60 100.0%   
  Dec 16, 2021 170   Appalachian St. W 78-58 97%    
  Dec 18, 2021 154   Cleveland St. W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 22, 2021 36   Virginia Tech W 74-65 80%    
  Dec 29, 2021 56   @ Clemson W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 01, 2022 84   @ Notre Dame W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 04, 2022 99   Georgia Tech W 80-65 92%    
  Jan 08, 2022 100   Miami (FL) W 83-67 92%    
  Jan 12, 2022 51   @ Wake Forest W 77-72 69%    
  Jan 15, 2022 74   North Carolina St. W 81-68 89%    
  Jan 17, 2022 38   @ Florida St. W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 59   Syracuse W 84-72 87%    
  Jan 25, 2022 56   Clemson W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 37   @ Louisville W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 24   @ North Carolina W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 07, 2022 44   Virginia W 68-57 83%    
  Feb 12, 2022 113   @ Boston College W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 15, 2022 51   Wake Forest W 80-69 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 38   Florida St. W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 23, 2022 44   @ Virginia W 65-60 66%    
  Feb 26, 2022 59   @ Syracuse W 81-75 72%    
  Mar 01, 2022 179   @ Pittsburgh W 76-61 91%    
  Mar 05, 2022 24   North Carolina W 84-77 73%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.0 11.7 14.4 12.3 7.2 2.4 55.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.9 7.0 4.3 1.3 0.2 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.5 8.1 11.5 14.7 16.3 15.7 12.5 7.2 2.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
19-1 100.0% 7.2    7.2 0.0
18-2 98.4% 12.3    11.6 0.6
17-3 91.6% 14.4    11.8 2.5 0.1
16-4 71.8% 11.7    7.2 3.9 0.6 0.0
15-5 40.7% 6.0    2.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 13.6% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.7% 55.7 42.8 10.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.4% 100.0% 62.2% 37.8% 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 7.2% 100.0% 59.2% 40.8% 1.3 5.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 12.5% 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 1.4 7.7 4.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 15.7% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.8 6.3 6.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.3% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 2.4 2.9 6.1 4.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.7% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 3.3 0.8 2.9 4.9 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.5% 100.0% 29.2% 70.7% 4.3 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.6 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.1% 99.9% 23.4% 76.5% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 5.5% 99.5% 15.6% 83.9% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-9 3.2% 98.5% 12.5% 86.0% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3%
10-10 1.6% 93.1% 8.1% 85.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 92.5%
9-11 0.8% 78.0% 4.6% 73.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 76.9%
8-12 0.4% 51.8% 6.7% 45.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 48.3%
7-13 0.1% 9.9% 1.4% 8.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.6%
6-14 0.1% 8.3% 8.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.2% 37.8% 61.4% 3.2 25.2 22.5 16.2 12.2 8.2 5.8 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 98.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.2 84.9 14.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 81.8 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 78.9 21.1