Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#43
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#59
Pace73.2#72
Improvement-1.5#272

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#58
First Shot+3.1#95
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#69
Layup/Dunks+3.0#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#127
Freethrows+0.7#139
Improvement+0.6#134

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#38
First Shot+6.9#16
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#255
Layups/Dunks+1.3#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows+4.0#8
Improvement-2.0#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 2.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 9.3% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 11.6% 21.6% 7.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.1% 69.2% 45.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.5% 66.6% 43.4%
Average Seed 8.2 7.6 8.6
.500 or above 88.2% 95.3% 85.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.9% 91.4% 75.8%
Conference Champion 5.1% 13.2% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four7.7% 6.3% 8.3%
First Round48.1% 65.7% 41.6%
Second Round26.2% 37.3% 22.1%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 13.7% 7.3%
Elite Eight3.5% 5.4% 2.8%
Final Four1.3% 2.2% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 26.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 410 - 12
Quad 36 - 116 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 266   Morehead St. W 93-45 96%     1 - 0 +39.1 +10.2 +25.9
  Nov 09, 2024 4   Tennessee L 55-77 28%     1 - 1 -4.8 -6.3 +0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 333   Bellarmine W 100-68 98%     2 - 1 +19.1 +13.9 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2024 179   Winthrop W 76-61 91%     3 - 1 +11.0 -6.1 +15.4
  Nov 27, 2024 39   Indiana W 89-61 47%     4 - 1 +39.8 +18.8 +20.2
  Nov 28, 2024 45   West Virginia W 79-70 OT 51%     5 - 1 +19.9 +9.5 +10.0
  Nov 29, 2024 41   Oklahoma L 64-69 49%     5 - 2 +6.4 +3.7 +2.2
  Dec 03, 2024 26   Mississippi L 63-86 52%     5 - 3 -12.5 -4.3 -9.1
  Dec 08, 2024 2   Duke L 69-76 27%    
  Dec 11, 2024 158   UTEP W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 14, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 76-86 19%    
  Dec 21, 2024 61   @ Florida St. L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 28, 2024 207   Eastern Kentucky W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 01, 2025 17   North Carolina L 82-83 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 90   @ Virginia W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 28   Clemson W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 36   @ Pittsburgh L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 14, 2025 96   @ Syracuse W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 90   Virginia W 68-60 77%    
  Jan 21, 2025 62   @ SMU L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 30, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 111   @ Georgia Tech W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 05, 2025 145   @ Boston College W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 10, 2025 87   Miami (FL) W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 72   @ North Carolina St. W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 16, 2025 80   @ Notre Dame W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 61   Florida St. W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 25, 2025 129   @ Virginia Tech W 75-69 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 36   Pittsburgh W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 05, 2025 109   California W 83-73 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 93   Stanford W 79-71 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 3.8 1.6 0.4 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.6 3.5 0.9 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.7 3.8 0.9 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.6 1.1 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.2 0.1 4.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.3 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.8 9.9 12.2 13.6 12.9 11.2 8.8 6.0 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.1
18-2 76.0% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
17-3 48.7% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 20.8% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 4.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 99.8% 19.7% 80.1% 3.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
17-3 3.3% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.0% 99.0% 13.0% 85.9% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
15-5 8.8% 96.2% 11.2% 85.0% 7.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 95.7%
14-6 11.2% 86.1% 8.0% 78.1% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.6 2.0 0.6 0.0 1.6 84.9%
13-7 12.9% 73.9% 6.0% 67.9% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.0 1.7 0.0 3.4 72.2%
12-8 13.6% 54.7% 3.0% 51.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.4 0.1 6.2 53.3%
11-9 12.2% 33.2% 1.8% 31.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 0.2 8.1 32.0%
10-10 9.9% 14.3% 0.8% 13.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 8.5 13.7%
9-11 7.8% 3.1% 0.5% 2.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.6 2.6%
8-12 5.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.3%
7-13 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 3.4
6-14 1.9% 1.9
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 52.1% 5.1% 46.9% 8.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.0 4.2 5.6 7.6 9.1 9.6 8.1 0.6 47.9 49.5%