Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#13
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#19
Pace74.5#55
Improvement-1.3#268

Offense
Total Offense+11.3#9
First Shot+11.2#2
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#174
Layup/Dunks+1.5#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.5#2
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement-1.9#319

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#29
First Shot+4.5#50
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#38
Layups/Dunks+2.3#99
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#65
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement+0.6#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.4% 5.4% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 14.6% 17.4% 6.8%
Top 4 Seed 50.2% 56.2% 33.8%
Top 6 Seed 78.6% 83.8% 64.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 99.2% 95.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.0% 99.0% 95.3%
Average Seed 4.7 4.4 5.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 98.1% 91.5%
Conference Champion 19.4% 23.0% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 2.2%
First Round97.9% 99.0% 94.9%
Second Round81.5% 84.3% 73.8%
Sweet Sixteen46.1% 49.7% 36.2%
Elite Eight21.0% 23.0% 15.7%
Final Four9.2% 10.1% 6.7%
Championship Game3.7% 4.2% 2.3%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 0.8%

Next Game: California (Away) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 34 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 358 South Carolina St. W 104-45 99.6%    1 - 0 +41.1 +8.1 +24.6
  Thu, Nov 6 324 Jackson St. W 106-70 99%     2 - 0 +23.2 +18.7 +1.2
  Tue, Nov 11 20 Kentucky W 96-88 67%     3 - 0 +21.2 +21.4 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 15 189 Ohio W 106-81 97%     4 - 0 +20.1 +21.3 -3.3
  Fri, Nov 21 67 Cincinnati W 74-64 82%     5 - 0 +18.2 +9.2 +8.9
  Mon, Nov 24 216 Eastern Michigan W 87-46 98%     6 - 0 +34.5 +16.0 +20.3
  Wed, Nov 26 353 NJIT W 104-47 99.5%    7 - 0 +40.7 +28.1 +13.4
  Wed, Dec 3 23 @Arkansas L 80-89 49%     7 - 1 +9.2 +8.4 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 6 29 Indiana W 87-78 62%     8 - 1 +23.6 +16.9 +6.2
  Sat, Dec 13 72 Memphis W 99-73 89%     9 - 1 +30.7 +28.6 +1.5
  Tue, Dec 16 14 @Tennessee L 62-83 40%     9 - 2 -0.4 +1.2 -1.9
  Sat, Dec 20 209 Montana W 94-54 98%     10 - 2 +33.8 +11.4 +20.0
  Tue, Dec 30 65 @California W 82-75 73%    
  Fri, Jan 2 81 @Stanford W 85-77 77%    
  Tue, Jan 6 4 Duke L 79-80 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 156 Boston College W 85-64 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 26 Virginia W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 84 @Pittsburgh W 80-72 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 74 Virginia Tech W 87-74 89%    
  Mon, Jan 26 4 @Duke L 76-83 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 42 SMU W 87-78 79%    
  Wed, Feb 4 64 Notre Dame W 81-69 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 61 @Wake Forest W 84-78 72%    
  Mon, Feb 9 28 North Carolina St. W 86-80 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 27 Baylor W 86-83 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 42 @SMU W 84-81 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 129 Georgia Tech W 89-70 96%    
  Mon, Feb 23 21 @North Carolina L 79-80 46%    
  Sat, Feb 28 40 @Clemson W 76-73 59%    
  Tue, Mar 3 75 Syracuse W 86-73 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 35 @Miami (FL) W 82-80 56%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.8 5.9 2.6 0.6 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.7 5.1 0.9 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.5 4.2 0.4 15.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.1 4.1 0.5 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.0 1.9 0.2 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.4 8.0 11.9 15.9 17.3 16.4 12.3 6.8 2.6 0.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.9% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 87.1% 5.9    4.1 1.7 0.1
15-3 55.2% 6.8    2.9 3.0 0.8 0.1
14-4 18.6% 3.1    0.5 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 10.6 6.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 44.3% 55.7% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.6% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.8% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 2.2 1.5 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.3% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 2.9 1.0 3.4 4.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.4% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 3.6 0.4 1.9 5.5 5.4 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.3% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 4.4 0.1 0.6 3.3 5.9 4.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.9% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 5.0 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.9% 99.7% 9.0% 90.6% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.5 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
10-8 8.0% 98.5% 5.1% 93.4% 7.3 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.4%
9-9 4.4% 94.2% 3.6% 90.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 94.0%
8-10 2.3% 82.0% 3.9% 78.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.4 81.3%
7-11 0.9% 52.3% 2.1% 50.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 51.3%
6-12 0.3% 14.3% 14.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 14.3%
5-13 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 3.0%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.3% 17.5% 80.9% 4.7 4.4 10.1 17.0 18.6 16.1 12.4 8.5 5.6 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.0 1.7 98.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 70.7 27.6 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 72.2 25.0 2.8