Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 #60
Expected Predictive Rating +10.4 #60
Pace 73.7 #68
Improvement -4.2 #353

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #90 C B- A- C+ B-
Defense #47 B- C B+ A+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.18 #150 +0.6 #154
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #269 0.90 #30 -0.5 #202
Three Pointers 45% #105 0.94 #262 +0.5 #158
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.7 #160
Freethrows 18.6 #114 75% #104 14.0 #99
Second Chance 34.5% #78 1.18 #40 0.41 #41
Turnovers 15.7% #120
Total Offense +3.4 #90

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.22 #257 +1.1 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #331 0.70 #116 +2.5 #33
Three Pointers 50% #17 0.88 #39 -1.4 #239
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #111 +2.2 #111
Freethrows 18.0 #217 73% #203 13.1 #148
Second Chance 28.3% #100 0.92 #50 0.26 #49
Turnovers 21.8% #10
Total Defense +5.6 #47

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #108 0.9% #257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #174 -5.1% #97
Possession Length 15.7 #56 17.7 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #105 0.15 #104
Improvement -3.1 #342 -1.1 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 27.6% 13.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.0% 26.8% 12.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.0
.500 or above 78.1% 88.7% 69.4%
.500 or above in Conference 44.8% 59.1% 32.9%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.6% 3.3%
First Four7.5% 9.6% 5.7%
First Round15.7% 22.2% 10.3%
Second Round6.1% 8.8% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Home) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 10
Quad 26 - 48 - 14
Quad 33 - 111 - 15
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 245 American W 88-74 93%     9.1   1 - 0 +6.2 +5.2 -0.1
  Fri, Nov 7 304 Morehead St. W 81-65 96%     8.4   2 - 0 +4.9 -6.4 +9.4
  Tue, Nov 11 1 Michigan L 84-85 OT 6%     -2.1   2 - 1 +25.6 +10.3 +15.5
  Sun, Nov 16 300 Umass Lowell W 109-75 96%     15.2   3 - 1 +23.1 +21.2 -0.7
  Thu, Nov 20 17 Texas Tech L 83-84 23%     -2.3   3 - 2 +15.6 +10.8 +4.9
  Fri, Nov 21 76 Memphis W 69-68 56%     -4.6   4 - 2 +8.6 +5.5 +3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 209 Campbell W 99-51 91%     25.9   5 - 2 +42.1 +19.6 +21.3
  Fri, Nov 28 223 Northeastern W 86-73 92%     6.5   6 - 2 +6.5 +4.2 +1.7
  Tue, Dec 2 42 Oklahoma L 68-86 50%     -4.1   6 - 3 -8.9 -5.8 -2.6
  Sat, Dec 6 65 West Virginia W 75-66 52%     5.7   7 - 3 +17.5 +18.9 +0.0
  Sun, Dec 14 225 Queens W 111-73 92%     18.9   8 - 3 +31.3 +26.3 +4.1
  Wed, Dec 17 275 Longwood W 71-68 95%     2.1   9 - 3 -6.4 -9.7 +3.2
  Sun, Dec 21 8 Vanderbilt L 67-98 21%     -19.4   9 - 4 -13.6 -1.2 -11.1
  Wed, Dec 31 32 @North Carolina St. L 57-70 23%     -6.8   9 - 5 0 - 1 +3.8 -9.9 +14.1
  Sat, Jan 3 62 Virginia Tech W 81-78 62%     3.7   10 - 5 1 - 1 +9.0 +6.8 +2.0
  Wed, Jan 7 36 Miami (FL) L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 26 @North Carolina L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 108 @Florida St. W 83-81 56%    
  Tue, Jan 20 29 SMU L 79-81 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 6 @Duke L 69-84 8%    
  Tue, Jan 27 85 @Pittsburgh L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 32 North Carolina St. L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Feb 7 15 Louisville L 78-83 30%    
  Wed, Feb 11 114 @Georgia Tech W 77-75 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 81 Stanford W 77-72 67%    
  Wed, Feb 18 39 Clemson L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 62 @Virginia Tech L 74-77 39%    
  Tue, Feb 24 153 @Boston College W 73-67 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 71 Syracuse W 76-72 64%    
  Tue, Mar 3 25 @Virginia L 70-79 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 78 California W 78-73 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.1 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.3 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 1.2 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.4 4.4 3.4 0.2 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 5.6 1.2 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.9 5.5 3.4 0.2 10.0 10th
11th 0.2 3.3 5.6 0.8 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 5.5 2.5 0.1 9.3 12th
13th 0.4 3.5 4.3 0.4 8.5 13th
14th 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.2 0.0 7.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.5 0.3 3.7 16th
17th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 17th
18th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.9 11.1 15.5 16.7 15.7 12.7 8.6 4.8 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 57.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 19.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.7% 97.8% 6.6% 91.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.6%
13-5 2.1% 93.2% 3.0% 90.2% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 93.0%
12-6 4.8% 77.7% 4.5% 73.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.5 1.1 76.6%
11-7 8.6% 58.4% 1.5% 57.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.0 3.6 57.8%
10-8 12.7% 36.6% 0.9% 35.7% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 0.0 8.0 36.0%
9-9 15.7% 17.0% 0.8% 16.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 0.1 13.0 16.3%
8-10 16.7% 4.1% 0.4% 3.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 16.0 3.8%
7-11 15.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.2%
6-12 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 6.9% 6.9
4-14 3.5% 3.5
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 0.8% 18.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.6 6.9 0.3 80.3 19.0%