Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#11
Expected Predictive Rating+28.6#1
Pace73.6#88
Improvement-0.2#196

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#17
First Shot+10.1#7
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#192
Layup/Dunks+6.5#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
Freethrows+0.9#127
Improvement-1.2#290

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#10
First Shot+5.8#33
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#26
Layups/Dunks+6.2#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
Freethrows+1.5#94
Improvement+1.0#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 20.4% 20.5% 7.9%
Top 2 Seed 43.8% 43.9% 26.1%
Top 4 Seed 76.7% 76.9% 54.8%
Top 6 Seed 91.6% 91.8% 73.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.1% 91.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.9% 98.9% 90.9%
Average Seed 3.2 3.2 4.4
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 94.0% 82.6%
Conference Champion 23.2% 23.3% 12.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 2.9%
First Round98.8% 98.8% 90.5%
Second Round88.6% 88.7% 73.4%
Sweet Sixteen58.7% 58.9% 39.4%
Elite Eight31.6% 31.7% 20.3%
Final Four16.4% 16.5% 6.2%
Championship Game7.9% 8.0% 0.0%
National Champion3.6% 3.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 6
Quad 26 - 117 - 7
Quad 33 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 17 Florida W 93-87 56%     1 - 0 +23.1 +16.1 +6.1
  Fri, Nov 7 281 Utah Tech W 93-67 99%     2 - 0 +16.5 +16.1 +0.0
  Tue, Nov 11 249 Northern Arizona W 84-49 98%     3 - 0 +27.1 +5.0 +21.6
  Fri, Nov 14 32 UCLA W 69-65 70%     4 - 0 +17.4 +6.2 +11.4
  Wed, Nov 19 8 @Connecticut W 71-67 37%     5 - 0 +26.3 +15.3 +11.3
  Mon, Nov 24 300 Denver W 103-73 99%     6 - 0 +19.3 +13.9 +3.2
  Sat, Nov 29 233 Norfolk St. W 83-57 99%    
  Sat, Dec 6 23 Auburn W 83-76 74%    
  Fri, Dec 12 10 Alabama L 87-88 50%    
  Tue, Dec 16 252 Abilene Christian W 83-56 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 57 San Diego St. W 81-72 81%    
  Mon, Dec 22 217 Bethune-Cookman W 89-64 99%    
  Mon, Dec 29 150 South Dakota St. W 86-64 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 125 @Utah W 85-72 88%    
  Wed, Jan 7 54 Kansas St. W 90-78 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 51 @TCU W 77-72 69%    
  Wed, Jan 14 83 Arizona St. W 86-71 90%    
  Sat, Jan 17 68 @Central Florida W 87-79 76%    
  Wed, Jan 21 65 Cincinnati W 82-69 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 71 West Virginia W 78-64 89%    
  Mon, Jan 26 7 @BYU L 75-79 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 83 @Arizona St. W 83-74 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 46 Oklahoma St. W 90-79 83%    
  Mon, Feb 9 18 @Kansas L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 24 Texas Tech W 80-73 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 7 BYU W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 5 @Houston L 67-71 36%    
  Tue, Feb 24 28 @Baylor W 81-79 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 18 Kansas W 78-73 69%    
  Mon, Mar 2 4 Iowa St. W 78-76 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 72 @Colorado W 83-75 76%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.7 7.7 6.9 3.3 0.8 23.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.3 7.2 3.9 0.9 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.2 5.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 5.0 2.8 0.4 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.4 5.3 8.5 12.2 13.5 15.7 14.7 12.0 7.9 3.3 0.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.5% 3.3    3.0 0.3
16-2 88.0% 6.9    5.0 1.8 0.2
15-3 64.0% 7.7    3.7 3.2 0.7 0.0
14-4 25.4% 3.7    0.9 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.0% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 13.5 7.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.3% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.9% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.4 5.2 2.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.0% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 1.6 5.5 5.2 1.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 14.7% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.1 4.0 6.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.7% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 2.7 1.7 5.4 5.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.5% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 3.3 0.5 2.3 5.0 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.2% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 4.1 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.1 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 8.5% 100.0% 5.1% 94.8% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 5.3% 99.9% 3.2% 96.7% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 3.4% 96.3% 1.7% 94.6% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 96.2%
7-11 1.5% 88.9% 0.9% 88.0% 9.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 88.8%
6-12 0.7% 57.4% 1.0% 56.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 57.0%
5-13 0.3% 26.9% 2.2% 24.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 25.3%
4-14 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 4.2%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 16.8% 82.2% 3.2 20.4 23.4 19.3 13.6 9.2 5.7 3.1 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 98.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.0 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5