Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#91
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#43
Pace65.7#281
Improvement+0.5#136

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#67
First Shot+4.2#65
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#126
Layup/Dunks-0.2#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#33
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement-0.5#235

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#142
First Shot-0.6#188
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#97
Layups/Dunks-0.5#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#243
Freethrows+1.4#102
Improvement+1.0#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 16.6% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 1.9% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 11.7
.500 or above 96.9% 97.7% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 86.6% 75.7%
Conference Champion 20.8% 21.7% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
First Round15.3% 16.0% 9.9%
Second Round3.7% 3.9% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 5
Quad 39 - 312 - 9
Quad 49 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 106 Rhode Island W 82-65 56%     1 - 0 +21.3 +17.2 +5.3
  Wed, Nov 12 296 @Oral Roberts W 88-87 83%     2 - 0 -3.4 +7.7 -11.1
  Mon, Nov 17 54 @Kansas St. L 83-84 26%     2 - 1 +11.7 +9.3 +2.5
  Fri, Nov 21 165 Austin Peay W 84-75 82%     3 - 1 +5.2 +14.3 -8.9
  Tue, Nov 25 187 San Jose St. W 81-51 77%     4 - 1 +28.2 +18.7 +13.8
  Wed, Nov 26 90 Northern Iowa W 63-60 50%     5 - 1 +8.9 +2.8 +6.4
  Sat, Dec 6 239 Missouri St. W 75-61 90%    
  Wed, Dec 10 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-65 99%    
  Sat, Dec 13 108 New Mexico St. W 70-68 58%    
  Fri, Dec 19 132 @Western Kentucky W 78-77 53%    
  Mon, Dec 22 300 Denver W 84-67 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 213 Rice W 77-65 87%    
  Sun, Jan 4 123 @North Texas W 67-66 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 81 South Florida W 80-78 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 196 @Charlotte W 74-69 69%    
  Sun, Jan 18 107 @UAB L 76-77 46%    
  Wed, Jan 21 70 Memphis W 76-75 53%    
  Sun, Jan 25 213 @Rice W 74-68 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 123 North Texas W 70-64 70%    
  Sun, Feb 1 92 Wichita St. W 75-72 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 111 @Florida Atlantic L 75-76 48%    
  Sun, Feb 8 81 @South Florida L 77-81 36%    
  Wed, Feb 11 107 UAB W 79-74 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 92 @Wichita St. L 72-75 40%    
  Wed, Feb 18 196 Charlotte W 77-66 84%    
  Sun, Feb 22 231 Texas San Antonio W 81-68 87%    
  Wed, Feb 25 152 @Tulane W 77-74 61%    
  Thu, Mar 5 259 @East Carolina W 78-70 77%    
  Sun, Mar 8 148 Temple W 82-73 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.3 5.9 4.0 1.6 0.4 20.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.6 4.6 1.2 0.1 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 6.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.7 2.9 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.8 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.5 3.3 3.5 0.6 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.4 4.1 6.3 9.3 12.1 13.6 13.7 12.9 10.5 7.1 4.2 1.6 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.1
16-2 96.7% 4.0    3.6 0.4
15-3 82.8% 5.9    4.1 1.7 0.1
14-4 50.7% 5.3    2.6 2.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.7% 2.9    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.8% 20.8 12.9 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 78.5% 57.9% 20.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 49.0%
17-1 1.6% 68.2% 44.1% 24.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 43.1%
16-2 4.2% 49.8% 35.8% 14.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 21.9%
15-3 7.1% 34.9% 30.7% 4.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.7 6.1%
14-4 10.5% 25.6% 24.7% 0.9% 11.4 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.0 7.8 1.1%
13-5 12.9% 18.9% 18.6% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.1 10.5 0.3%
12-6 13.7% 13.6% 13.4% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.2 11.9 0.2%
11-7 13.6% 10.6% 10.6% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.1
10-8 12.1% 6.5% 6.5% 12.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.3
9-9 9.3% 5.3% 5.3% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.8
8-10 6.3% 2.3% 2.3% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2
7-11 4.1% 1.4% 1.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 4.0
6-12 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.9% 14.4% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 6.5 6.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 84.1 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.2 17.6 29.4 11.8 23.5 11.8 5.9