Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +8.8 64
Results Rating +8.6 70
Consistency 0.18 322
Pace 69.3 157
Improvement -0.2 197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 38 B+ B+ B B+ A-
Defense C 154 C C+ C- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 67 C 58% 174 +2.6 90
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 352 C 39% 142 -4.2 351
Three Pointers 48% 46 A- 39% 16 +7.0 18
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 15 B +3.3 81
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 47
Second Chance C+ 31.9% 142 A 1.26 6 B+ 0.40 37
Opponents' Steals B- 8.5% 96
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 76
Turnovers B 14.9% 75
Freethrows B- 0.33 108 A 80% 4 B+ 0.26 40
Total Offense B+ +8.2 38

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 246 C+ 10.3% 133
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 291 B+ 2.4% 26
Three Pointers C+ 86% 154 C+ 0.8% 156
Total B- 59% 108 C+ 5.0% 113

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 188 C 59% 198 +0.1 184
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 191 B+ 34% 34 -1.2 94
Three Pointers 41% 153 C 34% 207 +0.5 211
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 178 C -0.5 165
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 160
Second Chance B+ 25.9% 38 D 1.14 324 C+ 0.30 133
Turnovers from Steals C 9.7% 169
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 313
Turnovers C- 15.9% 229
Freethrows B 0.26 59 C 72% 157 B 0.19 66
Total Defense C +0.6 154

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 245 D+ 8.6% 269
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 154 D- 1.3% 350
Three Pointers A- 76% 17 C- 0.8% 175
Total C 55% 172 D 3.9% 315

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 85 18.0 286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 104 0.14 68
Consistency 0.12 157 0.12 132
Improvement -1.1 244 +0.9 134

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 76 64 53
Results Rating Rank 81 69 47
Conference Record 12 - 6 13 - 5 13 - 5
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32% 33% 27%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% 3% 1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 6% 7% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round31% 31% 27%
Second Round6% 7% 6%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 24 - 34 - 5
Quad 39 - 213 - 7
Quad 411 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 131 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 75% +9  93% 1 - 0 A +19 A+ +15 B A+ C B +5 B- D A
 Wed, Nov 12 325 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 93% -2  21% 2 - 0 D+ -6 B +6 D+ B D+ F -13 F D F
 Mon, Nov 17 97 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 51% -3  15% 2 - 1 B- +8 B +6 C- C- A+ C+ +1 A F D-
 Fri, Nov 21 167 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 87% -2  27% 3 - 1 B- +6 A- +10 A D+ B D+ -4 D- B- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 221 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 87% +13  92% 4 - 1 A+ +27 A +13 A- A+ B+ A+ +18 A+ B A-
 Wed, Nov 26 95 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 61% +3  72% 5 - 1 B +9 C +1 B- D B A- +8 A+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 207 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 90% +14  95% 6 - 1 A +18 A+ +24 A+ C+ A+ D+ -5 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 10 330 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 97% +16  91% 7 - 1 A +19 A+ +23 A+ A+ B D- -7 F D- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 176 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 82% +13  98% 8 - 1 B+ +12 B +6 A+ A+ F B+ +6 B+ B+ B-
 Fri, Dec 19 140 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 67% -3  11% 9 - 1 B- +5 B+ +9 B+ D A+ D+ -4 D+ D+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 243 Denver W 90 - 85 93% +4  91% 10 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 F+ B B- C+ +0 B F A
 Wed, Dec 31 237 Rice W 97 - 48 92% +16  99% 11 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +42 A+ +24 A+ B C+ A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 141 @North Texas L 67 - 72 67% +0  40% 11 - 2 1 - 1 C -1 B +6 D A+ C+ D- -7 D+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 55 South Florida L 78 - 93 57% -8  11% 11 - 3 1 - 2 D+ -8 C+ +2 C F B- F -10 F C- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 169 @Charlotte W 86 - 74 74% +8  94% 12 - 3 2 - 2 B+ +14 A +13 A+ D+ D+ B- +2 C- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 112 @UAB W 99 - 77 60% +10  97% 13 - 3 3 - 2 A+ +28 A+ +26 A+ B- B+ B- +2 C A F
 Wed, Jan 21 108 Memphis W 83 - 66 78% +3  72% 14 - 3 4 - 2 A +18 A+ +16 C- A+ A+ B- +3 A- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 237 @Rice W 87 - 81 83% +13  98% 15 - 3 5 - 2 C+ +5 A +14 C A+ C+ F+ -9 F F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 141 North Texas W 82 - 66 84% +4  85% 16 - 3 6 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +9 B- A+ A- B+ +6 B- A C
 Sun, Feb 1 93 Wichita St. W 93 - 83 71% +6  76% 17 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ A+ B- D+ -4 A- D- F+
 Wed, Feb 4 120 @Florida Atlantic W 78 - 76 61% -1  38% 18 - 3 8 - 2 B- +8 B- +4 C+ D+ A+ B +4 A D- D-
 Sun, Feb 8 55 @South Florida L 74 - 80 34% -6  0% 18 - 4 8 - 3 B- +7 B +7 D+ A+ C- C +0 C- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 112 UAB L 63 - 68 79% -4  14% 18 - 5 8 - 4 C- -5 D- -8 C- C F B- +3 B+ C+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 93 @Wichita St. L 77 - 81 49% +3  84% 18 - 6 8 - 5 B- +5 B+ +9 C C- A- D+ -4 D A- F
 Wed, Feb 18 169 Charlotte W 79 - 74 88% +6  88% 19 - 6 9 - 5 C +1 B- +4 B C+ D C- -2 F+ B- C
 Sun, Feb 22 336 Texas San Antonio W 100 - 74 97% +12  88% 20 - 6 10 - 5 B+ +11 A+ +15 A+ D+ A+ D+ -4 D D- D
 Wed, Feb 25 180 @Tulane W 90 - 56 75% +17  91% 21 - 6 11 - 5 A+ +36 A+ +21 A A A A+ +17 A B- A
 Thu, Mar 5 248 @East Carolina W 84 - 73 85%
 Sun, Mar 8 156 Temple W 83 - 71 87%
Totals 23 - 6 13 - 5 +9 B+ +8 A+ B A- C +1 A- A B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C C A- B 43% 17% 48% A- B+ C+ A B+ B B- A B+ C C B+ C C 38% 20% 41% C C B+ D C+ C- B C B
1.20 58% 39% 39% +3 +2 1.13 32% 1.3 .40 15% .33 80% .26 1.08 59% 34% 34% 0 0 1.01 26% 1.1 .30 16% .26 72% .24
Nov
7		 Rhode Island A+ C+ F A+ B 47% 16% 38% B- B A+ A+ A+ C A+ F B+ B C- A+ B- B- 43% 19% 38% C B- C F+ D A D+ F+ D-
1.26 57% 14% 47% +3 +1 1.11 45% 1.6 .72 21% .47 63% .29 1.00 61% 25% 31% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.1 .36 25% .39 79% .30
Nov
12		 Oral Roberts B D F B- D 51% 9% 40% B D+ C+ B+ B D+ A+ A A+ F F A+ F F 31% 13% 56% C F A F D F C- A+ C+
1.21 50% 25% 37% -4 +2 1.00 34% 1.3 .43 16% .59 78% .46 1.20 76% 0% 42% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.7 .31 14% .32 65% .21
Nov
17		 Kansas St. B C- A+ F D- 44% 5% 51% A C- C+ D C- A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A 43% 21% 36% C+ A C- F F D- D- F F
1.10 54% 100% 21% -8 +2 0.91 33% 1.1 .36 12% .44 72% .32 1.11 68% 25% 24% -4 0 0.95 33% 1.4 .47 13% .32 90% .29
Nov
21		 Austin Peay A- B D A+ A 35% 6% 59% B+ A D C- D+ B D+ A+ B+ D+ B D- F D- 49% 17% 34% D D- B C+ B- D- B B+ B+
1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26 1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19
Nov
25		 San Jose St. A D F A+ B+ 48% 6% 46% A A- D+ A+ A+ B+ F B+ F A+ A+ A- C- A+ 29% 35% 35% B A+ C B+ B A- A B+ A
1.32 57% 0% 50% +8 +3 1.23 31% 1.9 .58 15% .19 80% .15 0.83 29% 29% 35% -11 -3 0.75 33% 0.9 .30 20% .20 70% .14
Nov
26		 Northern Iowa C B- D C B- 33% 13% 54% B- B- F A+ D B B- A+ A A- C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% B- A+ B- F C- C A- C B+
1.00 60% 33% 32% -2 +1 1.00 13% 1.3 .17 16% .28 93% .26 0.95 62% 20% 25% -7 0 0.88 19% 1.3 .25 14% .19 70% .13
Dec
6		 Missouri St. A+ D F A+ A 40% 2% 58% A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ A+ A- A+ D+ C- A F F 31% 18% 51% D F A+ C- A B+ C- A B-
1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40 1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A+ B- D A+ A+ 49% 5% 45% A A+ C+ A+ A+ B A+ A A+ D- F B- A- F 39% 17% 44% F+ F C+ F D- C+ D+ F F+
1.51 63% 33% 48% +12 +3 1.31 37% 1.8 .67 13% .55 84% .46 1.09 81% 33% 29% +5 +1 1.13 24% 1.3 .31 19% .34 86% .29
Dec
13		 New Mexico St. B C D+ A+ A+ 29% 7% 63% B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ B+ A A C A 43% 22% 35% F+ B+ A+ F+ B+ B- F B F
1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54 1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31
Dec
19		 Western Kentucky B+ B+ A+ C- B 29% 8% 63% B+ B+ F A+ D A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A A+ F D+ 38% 13% 48% D+ D+ B+ F D+ D- F+ D- F
1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37 1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30
Dec
22		 Denver D+ D- A+ F F 67% 2% 31% A+ F+ B+ C- B B- B- B+ B C+ D- B- A+ B+ 35% 30% 35% C B F F F A F D F
1.17 54% 100% 22% -7 +5 0.97 41% 1.1 .45 12% .35 75% .27 1.11 63% 38% 26% -2 -1 0.94 39% 1.4 .55 20% .42 81% .34
Dec
31		 Rice A+ A F A+ A+ 53% 14% 33% A+ A+ A+ D B C+ F A+ F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 31% 45% B- A+ A A+ A+ C+ C- A+ B-
1.49 74% 14% 71% +23 +2 1.53 44% 0.9 .40 15% .22 83% .18 0.74 50% 20% 23% -15 -2 0.67 27% 0.6 .16 18% .32 59% .19
Jan
4		 North Texas B F B+ F+ F+ 51% 16% 33% A- D C A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- C- A F D- 44% 27% 29% B+ D+ B+ F F+ F+ C+ F C-
1.08 45% 43% 29% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 21% .51 84% .43 1.16 60% 25% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 13% .33 78% .26
Jan
10		 South Florida C+ D A+ F C- 37% 12% 51% A- C F D- F B- A+ A+ A+ F D A+ F+ F 29% 2% 70% B- F B- D- C- C- A- A- A
1.06 50% 80% 27% -3 +1 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 18% .65 79% .51 1.27 63% 0% 38% +5 +2 1.16 36% 1.3 .46 15% .31 68% .21
Jan
14		 Charlotte A D+ A+ A+ A 56% 8% 35% A+ A+ A F D+ D+ A A+ A+ B- C F C C- 46% 14% 40% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F B F C-
1.29 56% 50% 53% +10 +3 1.27 39% 0.7 .29 16% .39 82% .32 1.11 61% 57% 35% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.4 .07 12% .29 88% .26
Jan
18		 UAB A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% A A+ C- A+ B- B+ F A+ D B- D- B+ C- D+ 38% 41% 21% A+ C A+ B+ A F D+ D+ D+
1.38 72% 67% 46% +17 +2 1.41 24% 1.2 .28 14% .16 90% .15 1.08 67% 30% 33% 0 -3 0.96 23% 0.9 .20 7% .33 73% .24
Jan
21		 Memphis A+ F F+ B+ D+ 40% 16% 44% B C- A A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C A+ A A 37% 18% 45% D A- C- B C+ A- C+ C+ B-
1.26 41% 29% 37% -6 +1 0.91 42% 1.1 .47 12% .62 86% .54 1.00 58% 22% 26% -8 0 0.86 38% 1.1 .40 23% .28 71% .20
Jan
24		 Rice A C F A- C- 38% 21% 42% B+ C B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F+ F+ F F F 24% 31% 45% B- F F+ D F+ B- B B+ B+
1.31 61% 20% 40% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.8 .68 15% .50 79% .39 1.22 67% 47% 45% +12 -2 1.22 41% 1.0 .41 20% .26 64% .17
Jan
28		 North Texas B+ C- D+ C C 56% 6% 38% A+ B- C A+ A+ A- C A+ A- B+ A- F A+ B+ 56% 12% 33% F B- B A+ A C D+ A- C
1.16 56% 33% 33% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.6 .48 18% .36 86% .31 0.93 48% 50% 24% -9 +2 0.88 30% 0.7 .21 17% .37 64% .24
Feb
1		 Wichita St. A+ A+ B B+ A+ 42% 19% 40% A A+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ D+ C A 47% 24% 29% C- A- A+ F D- F+ F B+ F
1.28 75% 44% 37% +10 0 1.23 33% 2.1 .71 15% .44 70% .31 1.14 38% 42% 33% -9 0 0.84 30% 1.5 .47 11% .50 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Florida Atlantic B- B F C- C+ 42% 15% 44% C+ C+ F+ A- D+ A+ C- C+ C B D- A+ A+ A 36% 17% 47% C A D+ F+ D- D- B+ A+ A
1.08 61% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 11% .30 74% .22 1.05 67% 30% 22% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.2 .43 14% .24 60% .14
Feb
8		 South Florida B F F+ C+ D+ 22% 14% 63% C+ D+ A A+ A+ C- C+ F D+ C D- F A D+ 43% 6% 51% C C- A A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.08 36% 29% 35% -5 0 0.92 40% 1.4 .55 20% .33 61% .20 1.17 64% 67% 27% -1 +2 1.04 31% 0.5 .15 10% .49 77% .37
Feb
11		 UAB D- B- D+ F D+ 43% 12% 45% A- C- C+ C- C F F+ F+ F B- A+ A+ F+ A 50% 20% 30% D- B+ B+ D+ C+ D- A C+ A
0.94 64% 33% 26% -4 +1 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 21% .17 67% .11 1.02 44% 18% 38% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 9% .21 69% .15
Feb
14		 Wichita St. B+ C- A D C+ 20% 25% 55% C- C D+ B- C- A- B A+ A- D+ F F A+ D- 43% 31% 25% B+ D B A- A- F F B+ F+
1.13 55% 50% 30% -1 -2 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .32 79% .25 1.18 68% 56% 15% +3 -1 1.06 36% 0.9 .31 9% .43 63% .27
Feb
18		 Charlotte B- F+ F A B- 24% 6% 69% B B C B- C+ D C+ B- C+ C- F A- F F 33% 14% 53% B- F+ A+ F B- C A+ F A+
1.20 50% 0% 41% +3 +1 1.10 29% 1.2 .35 17% .33 72% .24 1.13 75% 29% 42% +11 0 1.24 23% 1.2 .27 18% .15 88% .13
Feb
22		 Texas San Antonio A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 8% 49% B+ A+ C- D D+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ C+ A F+ D- 38% 20% 43% C- D A+ F D- D A- F B
1.40 74% 25% 42% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.0 .35 10% .39 80% .31 1.03 52% 27% 38% -2 0 0.98 15% 2.4 .35 15% .18 82% .15
Feb
25		 Tulane A+ C C+ A+ A 42% 9% 49% A- A B+ A A A D- A+ C- A+ A+ C- A A 38% 17% 46% C- A C A- B- A A- A+ A+
1.36 57% 40% 44% +7 +2 1.20 40% 1.2 .49 14% .26 80% .21 0.84 44% 38% 27% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.0 .22 20% .30 63% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 5.6 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 8.2 68.2 76.5 2nd
3rd 1.4 15.7 17.2 3rd
4th 0.7 0.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.2 24.0 73.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 7.6% 5.6    0.1 2.0 3.5
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 5.6% 5.6 0.1 2.0 3.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 73.8% 33.1% 30.6% 2.5% 11.3 0.0 0.5 16.1 7.7 0.0 49.4 3.6%
12-6 24.0% 28.7% 28.1% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 3.2 3.6 0.1 17.1 0.9%
11-7 2.2% 23.7% 23.4% 0.2% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.7 0.3%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.8% 29.9% 2.0% 11.4 68.2 2.8%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.6% 100.0% 11.3 0.0 2.3 65.3 32.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.2% 6.1% 11.2 0.0 4.8 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.1% 2.7% 11.3 1.9 0.9
Lose Out 0.4%