Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.0 #93
Expected Predictive Rating +7.5 #80
Pace 68.5 #207
Improvement -2.7 #307

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #50 A- B+ B+ A A+
Defense #191 C C- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.15 #198 +2.8 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #359 0.87 #50 -4.3 #352
Three Pointers 48% #48 1.18 #14 +7.8 #12
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #38 +6.3 #39
Freethrows 19.6 #79 81% #4 15.9 #19
Second Chance 31.1% #169 1.27 #10 0.39 #56
Turnovers 14.0% #42
Total Offense +6.6 #50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.19 #221 +0.2 #168
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.54 #3 +2.3 #36
Three Pointers 43% #138 1.08 #273 -2.2 #278
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #172 +0.2 #172
Freethrows 15.0 #73 73% #227 11.1 #284
Second Chance 26.7% #55 1.27 #355 0.34 #234
Turnovers 16.6% #185
Total Defense -0.7 #191

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.1% #7 -0.1% #158
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.8% #66 -0.3% #174
Possession Length 16.5 #102 17.8 #272
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #121 0.14 #65
Improvement -1.9 #296 -0.8 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.4% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 91.0% 72.9%
Conference Champion 11.9% 16.1% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round14.6% 16.4% 11.5%
Second Round2.6% 3.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Away) - 63.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 310 - 412 - 9
Quad 410 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 123 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 64% +9  1 - 0 +19 +19 A A+ C+ +2 B D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 298 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 85% -2  2 - 0 -4 +10 C- B- C -14 F D F
 Mon, Nov 17 74 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 32% -3  2 - 1 +10 +9 C C+ A+ +1 A+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 180 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 84% -2  3 - 1 +4 +14 A+ D A- -9 F C+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 227 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 82% +13  4 - 1 +26 +17 A A+ A+ +14 A+ B A-
 Wed, Nov 26 107 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 57% +3  5 - 1 +7 +3 B D+ B- +4 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 192 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 85% +14  6 - 1 +19 +28 A+ C+ A+ -8 F A- A
 Wed, Dec 10 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 95% +16  7 - 1 +20 +26 A+ A+ C+ -9 F D- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 139 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 68% +13  8 - 1 +14 +11 A+ A+ F +3 A+ B+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 150 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 60% -3  9 - 1 +4 +11 B C- A+ -6 D C- D-
 Mon, Dec 22 280 Denver W 90 - 85 92% +4  10 - 1 -5 -1 F C+ B -4 B+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 247 Rice W 97 - 48 90% +16  11 - 1 1 - 0 +41 +28 A+ A B +17 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 137 @North Texas L 67 - 72 56% +0  11 - 2 1 - 1 -1 +10 C- A+ C+ -11 D F F
 Sat, Jan 10 75 South Florida L 78 - 93 55% -8  11 - 3 1 - 2 -10 +3 C F A- -13 F D+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 170 @Charlotte W 77 - 73 64%
 Sun, Jan 18 115 @UAB L 79 - 80 47%
 Wed, Jan 21 83 Memphis W 78 - 76 58%
 Sun, Jan 25 247 @Rice W 79 - 71 76%
 Wed, Jan 28 137 North Texas W 73 - 65 75%
 Sun, Feb 1 105 Wichita St. W 78 - 74 65%
 Wed, Feb 4 102 @Florida Atlantic L 79 - 81 42%
 Sun, Feb 8 75 @South Florida L 80 - 85 33%
 Wed, Feb 11 115 UAB W 82 - 77 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 105 @Wichita St. L 75 - 77 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 170 Charlotte W 80 - 70 82%
 Sun, Feb 22 332 Texas San Antonio W 86 - 66 96%
 Wed, Feb 25 158 @Tulane W 77 - 74 60%
 Thu, Mar 5 262 @East Carolina W 80 - 71 79%
 Sun, Mar 8 140 Temple W 82 - 74 76%
Totals 21 - 8 11 - 7 +6 +7 A- B+ B+ -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.0 4.5 2.0 0.4 11.9 1st
2nd 0.8 5.8 6.0 1.5 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.8 7.0 1.5 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 8.0 2.3 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.5 6.1 4.2 0.2 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 6.3 0.6 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.4 2.0 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.4 0.2 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.5 8.1 12.8 17.0 18.4 16.2 11.5 6.1 2.1 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 94.8% 2.0    1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 74.4% 4.5    2.4 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 34.7% 4.0    0.8 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.1% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 5.3 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 46.7% 38.7% 8.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13.0%
15-3 2.1% 32.6% 31.2% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 2.1%
14-4 6.1% 28.7% 28.3% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.0 4.3 0.6%
13-5 11.5% 25.7% 25.7% 0.1% 11.7 1.1 1.8 0.1 8.6 0.1%
12-6 16.2% 19.9% 19.9% 11.8 0.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 13.0
11-7 18.4% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.0 0.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 15.8 0.0%
10-8 17.0% 10.2% 10.2% 12.1 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 15.2
9-9 12.8% 7.0% 7.0% 12.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.9
8-10 8.1% 5.1% 5.1% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.7
7-11 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.3
6-12 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.6% 0.1% 11.8 85.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.5 10.3 13.8 10.3 44.8 20.7