Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   23 - 1 13 - 1 +25.9      +12.2 5 +13.7 1 78.7 10 +28.9 2 +26.4 1
6 Illinois 100.0%   2   20 - 5 11 - 3 +21.4      +14.4 1 +7.0 29 65.8 254 +20.8 10 +21.7 3
9 Purdue 100.0%   2   20 - 4 10 - 3 +20.6      +12.8 3 +7.7 22 64.1 302 +21.4 9 +19.8 4
10 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   20 - 4 10 - 3 +19.8      +8.0 41 +11.8 5 66.0 251 +20.6 11 +19.5 5
15 Nebraska 100.0%   3   21 - 3 10 - 3 +18.5      +8.4 34 +10.1 11 68.6 186 +23.7 6 +23.0 2
25 Iowa 93.1%   7   18 - 6 8 - 5 +16.0      +9.6 22 +6.4 35 61.2 350 +15.8 30 +14.9 8
29 Indiana 72.6%   10   17 - 8 8 - 6 +14.7      +9.3 26 +5.4 49 67.9 202 +14.1 39 +14.4 9
33 Wisconsin 92.8%   8   17 - 7 9 - 4 +14.4      +9.4 24 +5.0 54 71.7 98 +15.5 32 +18.9 6
35 UCLA 76.9%   10   17 - 7 9 - 4 +14.3      +8.2 38 +6.1 36 63.9 310 +13.7 43 +15.8 7
39 Ohio St. 58.4%   11   16 - 8 8 - 6 +13.8      +10.0 18 +3.8 70 67.7 209 +13.2 44 +14.3 10
46 Washington 5.9%   12 - 13 4 - 10 +11.3      +6.1 53 +5.2 53 68.3 196 +8.3 67 +8.8 12
47 USC 62.9%   11   17 - 7 7 - 7 +11.2      +4.4 75 +6.8 32 74.8 35 +14.8 34 +12.4 11
64 Northwestern 0.0%   10 - 15 2 - 12 +8.4      +5.3 67 +3.1 89 65.6 264 +4.8 94 +2.0 17
71 Minnesota 0.4%   11 - 13 4 - 9 +7.9      +4.0 80 +4.0 65 60.0 361 +5.5 90 +8.4 13
80 Oregon 0.0%   8 - 16 1 - 12 +6.9      +3.8 83 +3.1 88 65.8 256 +3.3 110 -0.5 18
104 Maryland 0.0%   10 - 14 3 - 10 +4.5      +2.8 99 +1.6 124 68.2 199 +6.8 82 +6.3 14
108 Penn St. 0.0%   11 - 14 2 - 12 +3.9      +4.2 76 -0.3 178 68.9 176 +4.4 99 +3.6 16
121 Rutgers 0.0%   9 - 15 2 - 11 +2.6      +1.9 122 +0.7 147 65.8 255 +2.5 123 +4.3 15


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 29 Indiana 92 80 Oregon 74   
Tue, Feb 10 6 Illinois 90 33 Wisconsin 92   
Tue, Feb 10 15 Nebraska 77 9 Purdue 80   
Wed, Feb 11 39 Ohio St. 89 47 USC 82   
Wed, Feb 11 25 Iowa 70 104 Maryland 77   
Wed, Feb 11 108 Penn St. 63 46 Washington 60   
Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan 87 64 Northwestern 75   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 13 10 Michigan St. 76 33 Wisconsin 73 59%   
Sat, Feb 14 25 Iowa 71 9 Purdue 72 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 39 Ohio St. 72 23 Virginia 75 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 1 Michigan 84 35 UCLA 69 91%   
Sat, Feb 14 71 Minnesota 66 46 Washington 73 73%   
Sat, Feb 14 15 Nebraska 79 64 Northwestern 66 88%   
Sat, Feb 14 80 Oregon 78 108 Penn St. 72 72%   
Sun, Feb 15 6 Illinois 82 29 Indiana 73 82%   
Sun, Feb 15 104 Maryland 73 121 Rutgers 74 54%   
Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan 79 9 Purdue 77 59%   
Tue, Feb 17 25 Iowa 71 15 Nebraska 70 52%   
Tue, Feb 17 39 Ohio St. 82 33 Wisconsin 79 59%   
Tue, Feb 17 10 Michigan St. 74 35 UCLA 65 79%   
Tue, Feb 17 71 Minnesota 67 80 Oregon 69 58%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.1 91.7 5.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Illinois 2.5 15.7 44.1 23.4 11.6 4.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue 3.5 6.9 23.5 22.8 20.5 16.7 6.3 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 4.0 3.3 15.1 20.6 23.0 24.0 9.0 3.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Nebraska 2.9 7.2 38.2 25.9 17.2 8.2 2.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Iowa 7.5 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.1 7.4 17.6 20.8 19.6 15.5 9.8 4.0 0.3 0.0
Indiana 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 8.8 16.6 22.0 23.6 18.2 6.7 0.6 0.0
Wisconsin 6.0 0.1 2.3 4.8 9.4 18.6 29.8 17.0 10.1 5.3 2.2 0.4 0.0
UCLA 6.8 0.1 1.0 2.3 5.0 10.7 22.8 25.6 16.3 9.2 4.6 2.2 0.1
Ohio St. 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 10.0 16.4 19.0 20.3 20.1 9.1 0.8 0.0
Washington 11.9 0.1 0.3 2.0 7.4 20.0 49.2 16.1 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.1
USC 10.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 5.5 8.8 13.4 23.1 35.5 10.7 0.7
Northwestern 15.2 0.0 1.7 10.8 21.0 24.0 20.7 14.7 7.0
Minnesota 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 5.8 28.6 45.9 12.1 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.0
Oregon 16.0 0.1 1.2 5.8 12.5 17.4 18.3 21.3 23.4
Maryland 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 5.7 18.6 33.6 19.5 13.3 6.8 2.0
Penn St. 15.9 0.0 0.7 5.0 15.0 20.4 20.9 19.7 18.4
Rutgers 15.3 0.2 3.3 11.3 21.0 19.0 16.9 17.0 11.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.0 0.2 2.4 12.1 29.5 37.0 18.8
Illinois 16 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.4 2.6 12.7 30.5 37.5 16.3
Purdue 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.1 0.8 4.3 12.7 24.6 30.6 20.7 6.2
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.0 1.0 5.4 18.8 30.9 29.4 12.5 2.0
Nebraska 15 - 5 26 - 5 0.1 1.2 6.5 19.3 31.9 29.5 11.5
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 0.8 6.0 16.6 27.9 27.0 15.6 5.2 0.9
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 11 1.1 9.6 27.4 34.6 21.1 5.7 0.6
Wisconsin 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.5 4.4 14.9 26.7 28.5 17.9 6.2 0.9
UCLA 12 - 8 20 - 11 1.9 11.0 23.9 29.9 21.8 9.4 1.9 0.2
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 2.1 12.1 26.7 31.8 20.1 6.4 0.9
Washington 8 - 12 16 - 15 0.5 3.3 12.2 24.9 30.6 21.6 6.9
USC 10 - 10 20 - 10 3.5 16.9 29.9 28.8 15.5 4.7 0.7
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 3.9 18.8 35.1 28.7 11.2 2.2 0.2
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 2.6 14.4 28.8 30.6 17.6 5.3 0.7 0.0
Oregon 4 - 16 11 - 20 3.1 14.1 27.7 29.0 18.3 6.6 1.2 0.0
Maryland 5 - 15 12 - 19 7.7 25.9 34.2 22.5 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
Penn St. 4 - 16 13 - 18 9.1 28.9 34.3 20.2 6.5 1.1 0.0
Rutgers 4 - 16 11 - 20 6.5 20.9 30.6 25.3 12.3 3.8 0.6 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 91.7% 74.5 12.8 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Illinois 15.7% 3.6 8.2 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Purdue 6.9% 1.1 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 3.3% 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 7.2% 1.0 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Iowa 0.0% 0.0
Indiana
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St.
Washington
USC
Northwestern
Minnesota
Oregon
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 1   85.5 14.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2   18.8 39.3 27.9 11.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 2   12.8 34.6 30.8 15.0 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 3   4.5 16.3 29.2 26.4 15.1 6.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 3   3.6 15.9 31.5 27.8 14.5 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 93.1% 2.0% 91.1% 7   0.1 0.2 1.2 2.8 7.8 14.5 19.9 18.5 14.2 9.2 4.9 0.1 6.9 93.0%
Indiana 72.6% 0.8% 71.8% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.6 7.9 13.4 15.8 16.5 13.8 0.2 27.4 72.4%
Wisconsin 92.8% 1.4% 91.4% 8   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 4.7 10.6 19.1 22.1 17.6 11.2 5.7 0.0 7.2 92.7%
UCLA 76.9% 1.0% 75.9% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.9 9.3 15.3 17.8 16.7 12.2 0.1 23.1 76.6%
Ohio St. 58.4% 0.6% 57.8% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.1 8.0 11.3 14.3 18.1 0.3 41.6 58.1%
Washington 5.9% 0.1% 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 4.6 0.2 94.1 5.9%
USC 62.9% 0.1% 62.8% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.2 14.6 18.8 19.1 0.2 37.1 62.9%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 99.6 0.4%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.6 0.0 0.7 8.7 33.6 41.2 15.1 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 9.3 0.1 2.0 15.9 41.0 32.9 7.9 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.6 5.8 22.8 36.7 25.7 7.6 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.0 0.0 0.9 7.0 23.4 36.4 24.6 6.8 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 96.8% 2.2 3.2 20.7 39.2 28.5 7.5 0.7 0.1
Final Four 80.4% 1.2 19.6 49.0 27.2 4.1 0.1
Final Game 54.8% 0.6 45.2 47.7 7.1
Champion 33.6% 0.3 66.4 33.6

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.8% 86.8% 66.9% 48.0% 32.0% 20.9%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.3% 71.6% 42.5% 21.6% 10.4% 5.0%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.2% 67.3% 36.4% 17.4% 8.1% 3.6%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.2% 60.0% 28.6% 13.3% 6.0% 2.5%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.3% 55.6% 23.8% 9.7% 3.8% 1.3%
Iowa 93.1% 4.5% 91.4% 57.6% 18.6% 6.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Indiana 72.6% 13.2% 67.1% 34.9% 9.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Wisconsin 92.8% 5.2% 90.4% 49.9% 13.0% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
UCLA 76.9% 11.6% 71.9% 36.6% 9.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Ohio St. 58.4% 17.6% 51.0% 24.5% 6.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 5.9% 4.7% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 62.9% 18.2% 53.3% 19.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%