Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Purdue 99.9%   1   7 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 5 15 - 5 +19.7      +12.2 3 +7.5 33 64.9 276 +26.6 1 0.0 1
7 Indiana 98.4%   2   7 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +18.2      +9.0 16 +9.2 10 70.9 122 +21.0 5 0.0 1
10 Illinois 95.7%   4   6 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +17.4      +7.0 29 +10.5 5 80.5 8 +17.6 16 0.0 1
12 Maryland 97.3%   3   7 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +17.3      +10.0 10 +7.3 35 67.4 220 +18.1 15 0.0 1
23 Ohio St. 76.8%   6   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.1      +12.0 5 +2.1 117 65.1 271 +13.0 39 0.0 1
24 Iowa 83.4%   5   6 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.0      +11.4 6 +2.7 98 73.8 69 +14.1 30 0.0 1
35 Wisconsin 49.8%   9   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +11.0      +1.9 117 +9.0 12 64.4 289 +10.7 55 0.0 1
37 Michigan St. 51.0%   8   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +10.8      +6.3 37 +4.5 58 64.3 291 +13.3 35 0.0 1
39 Rutgers 39.0%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10.6      +1.8 120 +8.8 15 68.9 176 +3.3 127 0.0 1
43 Penn St. 43.1%   11   6 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +10.1      +5.3 48 +4.8 53 65.0 274 +10.3 59 0.0 1
58 Michigan 28.7%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 12 +8.9      +6.4 35 +2.6 101 68.7 183 +8.0 74 0.0 1
90 Northwestern 7.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +5.8      -1.9 224 +7.7 30 65.4 265 +5.8 98 0.0 1
92 Nebraska 5.0%   5 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 19 6 - 14 +5.6      +4.3 68 +1.3 137 64.0 298 +5.0 103 0.0 1
166 Minnesota 0.3%   4 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 21 3 - 17 +0.2      -2.1 232 +2.3 109 61.8 340 +0.5 169 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 2.5 41.4 21.8 14.2 8.9 5.9 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana 3.4 23.4 19.9 16.1 13.6 9.6 6.9 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Illinois 3.4 22.0 21.5 17.1 13.7 9.8 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Maryland 3.5 21.9 19.3 17.1 13.7 9.5 6.8 4.5 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 6.0 4.9 7.2 9.4 11.1 12.2 12.5 12.1 9.5 7.6 5.9 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.2
Iowa 5.4 6.7 9.8 11.8 13.6 13.0 11.7 9.6 8.1 6.0 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.1
Wisconsin 7.4 1.9 3.5 5.4 7.4 9.5 11.2 12.1 12.1 11.1 9.6 7.8 5.0 2.8 0.8
Michigan St. 8.0 1.1 2.3 3.7 5.6 8.2 9.9 11.7 12.5 12.1 11.4 9.8 7.0 3.8 0.9
Rutgers 7.7 1.2 2.8 4.4 6.6 8.9 10.9 12.1 12.3 11.7 10.2 8.6 5.8 3.5 1.0
Penn St. 8.6 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.3 6.1 8.5 10.3 11.5 12.9 12.7 11.6 9.3 5.7 1.8
Michigan 8.7 0.6 1.4 2.4 4.0 5.9 8.3 10.1 11.2 13.1 13.2 11.9 9.1 6.2 2.5
Northwestern 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.6 7.8 10.6 14.4 19.8 22.8 10.2
Nebraska 11.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.5 8.1 11.6 15.9 20.5 19.5 10.2
Minnesota 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 5.6 11.3 22.1 55.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.2 9.2 12.6 15.4 16.5 14.7 10.4 5.6 1.8
Indiana 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.7 7.5 10.3 12.9 15.0 14.8 12.8 9.0 5.5 2.2 0.5
Illinois 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.2 7.0 10.4 13.2 15.1 15.8 13.3 9.0 5.1 2.1 0.4
Maryland 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.9 7.4 10.5 13.7 14.5 14.4 12.2 9.0 5.0 1.9 0.4
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.1 7.9 10.2 12.7 13.5 13.1 11.2 8.7 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.7 6.0 8.4 11.1 12.2 13.3 13.3 10.9 8.0 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.2 9.4 11.6 13.0 13.5 11.9 10.5 7.4 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.1 8.3 10.9 13.1 13.9 13.1 11.2 8.4 5.5 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.7 7.0 9.9 12.1 13.3 13.6 12.0 9.4 6.3 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.2 7.2 10.0 12.5 13.9 13.3 11.8 8.9 6.8 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Michigan 8 - 12 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.5 12.7 13.9 13.2 11.4 9.0 6.1 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 6 - 14 0.5 2.4 6.0 10.5 13.8 15.5 14.7 12.3 9.4 6.5 4.1 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 6 - 14 0.3 1.9 5.2 9.4 13.5 15.8 15.6 13.1 10.1 6.8 4.3 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 3 - 17 6.9 16.3 20.1 19.1 15.0 10.3 6.1 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 41.4% 29.3 9.4 2.4 0.4 0.0
Indiana 23.4% 14.6 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.1
Illinois 22.0% 13.3 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.1
Maryland 21.9% 13.4 6.3 1.9 0.3 0.0
Ohio St. 4.9% 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Iowa 6.7% 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Wisconsin 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 1.1% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 99.9% 21.2% 78.7% 1   45.6 27.1 13.8 6.8 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%
Indiana 98.4% 16.1% 82.3% 2   23.4 22.5 19.1 12.5 9.0 5.6 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 98.1%
Illinois 95.7% 14.0% 81.7% 4   9.8 13.6 17.0 15.3 13.0 10.1 6.8 4.2 2.4 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 95.0%
Maryland 97.3% 13.8% 83.4% 3   16.5 18.1 18.2 14.1 10.8 8.2 4.6 2.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 96.8%
Ohio St. 76.8% 7.8% 69.0% 6   2.2 4.0 7.2 9.2 11.4 11.1 10.2 7.5 4.6 3.9 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 23.2 74.8%
Iowa 83.4% 7.6% 75.8% 5   2.4 4.8 9.1 10.2 12.0 12.7 10.4 8.2 5.2 4.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.6 82.0%
Wisconsin 49.8% 3.9% 45.9% 9   0.2 0.5 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.9 7.6 8.1 6.5 5.6 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 50.2 47.8%
Michigan St. 51.0% 3.6% 47.5% 8   0.3 0.6 1.9 3.3 5.5 7.4 7.6 7.1 5.3 4.5 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 49.0 49.2%
Rutgers 39.0% 3.9% 35.1% 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.1 5.3 7.4 6.5 5.9 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 61.0 36.5%
Penn St. 43.1% 3.4% 39.7% 11   0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.4 6.5 7.6 6.2 5.4 5.0 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 56.9 41.1%
Michigan 28.7% 2.6% 26.1% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.3 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 71.3 26.8%
Northwestern 7.9% 1.1% 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 92.1 6.9%
Nebraska 5.0% 0.9% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 95.0 4.1%
Minnesota 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Purdue 99.9% 0.1% 99.9% 94.1% 70.1% 45.6% 27.2% 15.5% 8.7%
Indiana 98.4% 0.8% 98.1% 87.0% 59.0% 34.6% 18.8% 9.7% 4.9%
Illinois 95.7% 1.5% 95.2% 79.1% 49.3% 27.2% 14.5% 7.6% 3.6%
Maryland 97.3% 1.0% 96.8% 82.1% 52.9% 28.8% 15.0% 7.5% 3.6%
Ohio St. 76.8% 4.2% 75.1% 51.8% 25.5% 11.4% 5.0% 2.0% 0.8%
Iowa 83.4% 3.3% 81.9% 56.6% 27.3% 11.7% 4.8% 2.1% 0.8%
Wisconsin 49.8% 5.5% 47.3% 26.3% 9.5% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Michigan St. 51.0% 6.3% 48.0% 27.0% 9.7% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Rutgers 39.0% 4.5% 37.0% 19.7% 6.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Penn St. 43.1% 6.1% 40.3% 20.8% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Michigan 28.7% 4.5% 26.6% 13.2% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 7.9% 2.0% 6.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 5.0% 1.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.8 0.0 1.1 9.2 29.7 37.1 18.7 4.0 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.6 0.0 1.7 12.2 33.5 35.2 14.8 2.5 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 5.6 0.0 0.3 2.7 13.2 29.5 32.5 17.3 4.2 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.5% 3.2 0.5 5.3 20.0 34.8 27.5 9.9 1.8 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 91.0% 1.7 9.0 32.9 38.1 16.4 3.4 0.3 0.0
Final Four 67.8% 0.9 32.2 47.6 18.0 2.1 0.1
Final Game 41.7% 0.5 58.3 37.7 4.0
Champion 22.9% 0.2 77.1 22.9