Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   20 - 1 10 - 1 +25.1      +11.8 6 +13.3 1 79.0 10 +28.3 4 +25.1 3
7 Illinois 100.0%   2   19 - 3 10 - 1 +21.2      +14.0 2 +7.3 24 66.6 238 +23.4 8 +27.9 1
8 Purdue 100.0%   2   18 - 4 8 - 3 +21.0      +14.1 1 +6.9 30 63.7 314 +20.3 12 +17.9 6
10 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   19 - 3 9 - 2 +20.2      +7.4 44 +12.8 2 66.1 252 +21.7 10 +21.1 4
14 Nebraska 100.0%   3   20 - 2 9 - 2 +18.5      +9.1 26 +9.5 13 68.2 199 +26.1 6 +25.4 2
21 Iowa 95.3%   6   16 - 5 6 - 4 +16.8      +8.6 30 +8.2 19 61.9 343 +16.6 26 +15.5 7
30 Indiana 77.5%   9   15 - 7 6 - 5 +14.8      +9.2 25 +5.6 44 68.5 187 +14.0 36 +14.7 9
35 UCLA 73.3%   10   15 - 7 7 - 4 +13.9      +7.4 46 +6.6 34 63.9 307 +13.2 41 +15.2 8
36 Ohio St. 59.9%   11   14 - 7 6 - 5 +13.6      +9.6 22 +4.0 70 67.7 214 +12.5 47 +13.6 10
37 Wisconsin 80.3%   10   16 - 6 8 - 3 +13.5      +8.7 27 +4.9 58 72.7 76 +14.5 35 +18.2 5
41 Washington 35.0%   12 - 10 4 - 7 +12.2      +6.5 53 +5.7 43 68.7 181 +10.5 55 +12.5 11
48 USC 56.6%   11   15 - 6 5 - 6 +11.3      +4.8 71 +6.5 37 73.7 57 +14.6 34 +11.3 12
63 Northwestern 0.3%   10 - 12 2 - 9 +8.9      +5.6 63 +3.3 86 65.2 272 +5.2 91 +2.3 15
77 Minnesota 0.5%   10 - 12 3 - 8 +7.6      +3.2 95 +4.5 65 60.3 360 +5.0 92 +8.2 13
83 Oregon 0.0%   8 - 14 1 - 10 +6.7      +4.0 81 +2.7 98 65.6 264 +3.4 107 -0.3 17
107 Maryland 0.0%   8 - 13 1 - 9 +3.7      +1.5 129 +2.2 104 69.7 156 +3.8 104 -0.6 18
112 Penn St. 0.0%   10 - 12 1 - 10 +3.3      +4.6 73 -1.3 223 69.2 168 +3.0 112 +0.2 16
114 Rutgers 0.0%   9 - 13 2 - 9 +3.3      +1.9 117 +1.3 128 65.9 260 +2.8 118 +5.1 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan 83 10 Michigan St. 71   
Sat, Jan 31 30 Indiana 98 35 UCLA 97   
Sat, Jan 31 36 Ohio St. 82 37 Wisconsin 92   
Sat, Jan 31 63 Northwestern 62 41 Washington 76   
Sat, Jan 31 114 Rutgers 75 48 USC 78   
Sun, Feb 1 7 Illinois 78 14 Nebraska 69   
Sun, Feb 1 21 Iowa 84 83 Oregon 66   
Sun, Feb 1 77 Minnesota 75 112 Penn St. 77   
Sun, Feb 1 107 Maryland 63 8 Purdue 93   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 3 30 Indiana 78 48 USC 77 52%   
Tue, Feb 3 114 Rutgers 64 35 UCLA 77 89%   
Wed, Feb 4 21 Iowa 72 41 Washington 70 56%   
Wed, Feb 4 7 Illinois 83 63 Northwestern 68 92%   
Wed, Feb 4 10 Michigan St. 70 77 Minnesota 60 82%   
Thu, Feb 5 107 Maryland 73 36 Ohio St. 80 75%   
Thu, Feb 5 1 Michigan 94 112 Penn St. 69 98%   
Sat, Feb 7 7 Illinois 71 10 Michigan St. 73 57%   
Sat, Feb 7 30 Indiana 82 37 Wisconsin 78 66%   
Sat, Feb 7 35 UCLA 75 41 Washington 70 68%   
Sat, Feb 7 83 Oregon 65 8 Purdue 82 94%   
Sat, Feb 7 14 Nebraska 78 114 Rutgers 66 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.6 60.6 24.8 9.5 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 1.8 48.7 31.0 13.0 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Purdue 4.2 3.5 10.4 17.7 25.0 25.9 9.9 4.5 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 3.6 8.0 15.1 21.9 28.0 18.4 5.5 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 2.9 13.4 26.8 30.9 17.1 8.2 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 6.8 0.1 0.9 2.9 7.1 13.4 24.0 17.5 12.8 9.7 6.4 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0
Indiana 8.2 0.1 0.4 1.7 5.2 13.2 17.1 17.8 17.1 13.9 9.0 3.9 0.6 0.0
UCLA 7.5 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.5 8.1 19.8 20.9 17.6 13.0 8.3 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 8.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 9.7 12.9 15.2 17.5 17.2 14.5 7.4 0.7 0.0
Wisconsin 7.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 6.1 12.7 23.1 18.5 15.0 11.1 6.6 3.8 0.6 0.0
Washington 9.8 0.0 1.0 5.5 8.0 10.9 14.2 18.3 21.2 15.9 4.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
USC 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 5.1 7.8 10.4 15.0 20.3 30.2 6.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.8 17.5 28.9 25.0 14.7 8.1 2.5
Minnesota 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 6.3 16.6 48.5 15.0 6.9 2.6 0.7 0.1
Oregon 15.6 0.1 0.3 1.3 7.8 17.6 20.5 23.2 17.8 11.5
Maryland 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 6.0 13.8 16.1 19.9 24.2 18.9
Penn St. 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 10.3 14.4 19.7 25.5 26.4
Rutgers 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.4 17.3 29.0 21.6 13.3 8.8 5.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 17 - 3 28 - 3 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.2 19.6 30.9 27.5 11.6
Illinois 17 - 3 26 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 11.2 23.5 31.0 22.7 7.1
Purdue 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.1 0.5 2.9 8.6 18.1 26.3 25.0 14.3 4.2
Michigan St. 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.1 0.8 4.2 12.6 23.0 28.5 21.0 8.3 1.4
Nebraska 16 - 4 27 - 4 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.9 14.0 25.9 28.7 18.4 5.7
Iowa 12 - 8 22 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.0 12.4 19.6 24.7 20.6 11.3 4.1 0.7
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 11 0.0 0.7 3.8 12.2 22.8 27.2 20.8 9.6 2.6 0.2
UCLA 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.2 1.6 7.0 17.1 25.6 25.3 15.8 6.1 1.3 0.1
Ohio St. 10 - 10 19 - 12 0.2 1.9 7.7 17.6 24.8 25.0 15.3 6.1 1.3 0.1
Wisconsin 12 - 8 20 - 11 0.5 4.2 13.7 22.6 26.2 19.4 9.9 2.9 0.5 0.0
Washington 10 - 10 18 - 13 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.8 15.1 21.9 24.9 19.0 8.3 1.7
USC 9 - 11 19 - 11 0.8 4.4 12.2 20.9 24.2 20.5 11.3 4.7 0.9 0.2
Northwestern 5 - 15 13 - 18 2.5 13.3 28.9 29.7 17.3 6.4 1.5 0.2 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 0.8 6.0 17.1 27.1 25.5 15.8 6.1 1.6 0.1
Oregon 4 - 16 11 - 20 2.7 12.1 25.2 28.4 20.2 8.4 2.6 0.4 0.0
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 6.0 19.5 27.1 24.3 14.7 6.0 2.0 0.3 0.1
Penn St. 3 - 17 12 - 19 7.3 23.6 30.7 22.5 11.6 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 5 - 15 12 - 19 3.9 14.8 26.1 26.6 18.6 7.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 60.6% 38.6 16.7 4.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Illinois 48.7% 27.5 16.0 4.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Purdue 3.5% 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 8.0% 2.3 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 13.4% 3.6 5.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Iowa 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana
UCLA 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Ohio St.
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington
USC
Northwestern
Minnesota
Oregon
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 1   79.4 19.5 1.1 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 2   27.7 41.9 22.5 6.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 2   13.2 29.8 31.6 17.3 6.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 3   8.6 23.1 30.8 23.9 9.7 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3   6.8 21.7 33.7 24.5 9.6 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 95.3% 3.2% 92.1% 6   0.3 1.0 3.8 8.8 13.4 18.3 17.3 12.7 9.6 6.3 3.8 0.1 4.7 95.1%
Indiana 77.5% 1.0% 76.4% 9   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.5 7.2 11.5 15.5 15.5 12.9 9.8 0.3 22.5 77.2%
UCLA 73.3% 0.8% 72.5% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 7.6 13.8 17.4 16.6 13.4 0.4 26.7 73.1%
Ohio St. 59.9% 0.7% 59.2% 11   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.2 9.5 12.6 14.6 13.7 0.5 40.1 59.6%
Wisconsin 80.3% 1.0% 79.3% 10   0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.9 11.2 17.3 18.7 14.9 10.3 0.2 19.7 80.1%
Washington 35.0% 0.2% 34.8% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.4 5.9 9.8 13.7 0.6 65.0 34.8%
USC 56.6% 0.2% 56.4% 11   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.9 13.0 15.4 15.1 0.4 43.5 56.5%
Northwestern 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.7 0.3%
Minnesota 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 99.5 0.5%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.8 0.6 7.5 29.2 41.0 19.1 2.7
1st Round 100.0% 9.4 0.1 1.7 13.8 37.7 35.2 10.5 1.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.3 4.4 20.2 36.0 27.7 9.8 1.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.7 6.2 20.7 35.1 27.7 8.5 1.1 0.1
Elite Eight 97.1% 2.3 2.9 19.1 37.6 30.1 9.2 1.1 0.1
Final Four 81.9% 1.2 18.1 48.1 28.6 5.1 0.2
Final Game 56.3% 0.6 43.7 48.3 8.0
Champion 33.8% 0.3 66.2 33.8

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.8% 84.3% 62.7% 43.0% 28.1% 17.8%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.4% 72.8% 44.1% 23.3% 11.7% 5.7%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.2% 68.6% 38.9% 20.4% 10.2% 4.8%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.4% 63.6% 32.2% 15.7% 7.6% 3.3%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.0% 56.9% 25.2% 10.7% 4.3% 1.5%
Iowa 95.3% 3.7% 93.9% 66.4% 26.7% 10.4% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Indiana 77.5% 9.5% 73.7% 40.5% 11.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
UCLA 73.3% 13.4% 67.2% 33.6% 7.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
Ohio St. 59.9% 13.9% 54.0% 26.6% 6.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Wisconsin 80.3% 10.1% 75.7% 38.2% 9.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Washington 35.0% 14.0% 28.7% 12.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
USC 56.6% 15.3% 48.7% 19.5% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%