Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   23 - 1 13 - 1 +25.9      +12.2 5 +13.7 1 78.7 10 +28.8 2 +26.2 1
6 Illinois 100.0%   2   20 - 5 11 - 3 +21.4      +14.4 1 +7.1 29 65.8 254 +20.7 10 +21.6 3
9 Purdue 100.0%   2   20 - 4 10 - 3 +20.6      +12.8 3 +7.8 22 64.1 302 +21.5 8 +20.0 4
13 Michigan St. 99.9%   4   20 - 5 10 - 4 +18.7      +7.9 44 +10.9 6 65.9 252 +19.5 15 +18.2 6
15 Nebraska 100.0%   3   21 - 3 10 - 3 +18.5      +8.4 34 +10.1 11 68.5 188 +23.6 6 +23.0 2
25 Iowa 92.7%   8   18 - 6 8 - 5 +16.0      +9.6 22 +6.4 35 61.2 350 +15.7 32 +14.9 8
26 Wisconsin 97.9%   7   18 - 7 10 - 4 +15.4      +10.3 17 +5.2 54 71.6 97 +16.3 29 +19.9 5
31 Indiana 74.5%   10   17 - 8 8 - 6 +14.7      +9.3 26 +5.4 49 67.9 202 +14.1 38 +14.5 9
34 UCLA 77.6%   10   17 - 7 9 - 4 +14.4      +8.2 39 +6.2 36 63.9 310 +13.8 43 +15.9 7
39 Ohio St. 58.9%   11   16 - 8 8 - 6 +13.8      +10.0 19 +3.8 69 67.7 209 +13.3 44 +14.4 10
46 Washington 6.1%   12 - 13 4 - 10 +11.3      +6.1 55 +5.2 53 68.3 196 +8.3 68 +8.7 12
47 USC 62.1%   11   17 - 7 7 - 7 +11.2      +4.4 75 +6.9 31 74.8 35 +14.8 34 +12.5 11
64 Northwestern 0.0%   10 - 15 2 - 12 +8.4      +5.3 67 +3.1 87 65.6 262 +4.9 94 +2.0 17
71 Minnesota 0.4%   11 - 13 4 - 9 +8.0      +4.0 80 +4.0 65 60.0 361 +5.6 90 +8.5 13
82 Oregon 0.0%   8 - 16 1 - 12 +6.8      +3.7 84 +3.1 88 65.8 256 +3.3 111 -0.6 18
105 Maryland 0.0%   10 - 14 3 - 10 +4.4      +2.8 100 +1.6 124 68.2 199 +6.9 82 +6.3 14
108 Penn St. 0.0%   11 - 14 2 - 12 +3.9      +4.2 76 -0.3 177 68.9 176 +4.4 99 +3.6 16
122 Rutgers 0.0%   9 - 15 2 - 11 +2.6      +1.9 122 +0.7 148 65.8 253 +2.5 121 +4.3 15


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 10 6 Illinois 90 26 Wisconsin 92   
Tue, Feb 10 15 Nebraska 77 9 Purdue 80   
Wed, Feb 11 39 Ohio St. 89 47 USC 82   
Wed, Feb 11 25 Iowa 70 105 Maryland 77   
Wed, Feb 11 108 Penn St. 63 46 Washington 60   
Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan 87 64 Northwestern 75   
Fri, Feb 13 13 Michigan St. 71 26 Wisconsin 92   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 25 Iowa 70 9 Purdue 72 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 39 Ohio St. 73 23 Virginia 75 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 1 Michigan 84 34 UCLA 69 91%   
Sat, Feb 14 71 Minnesota 66 46 Washington 72 73%   
Sat, Feb 14 15 Nebraska 79 64 Northwestern 66 89%   
Sat, Feb 14 82 Oregon 78 108 Penn St. 72 71%   
Sun, Feb 15 6 Illinois 82 31 Indiana 73 82%   
Sun, Feb 15 105 Maryland 73 122 Rutgers 74 55%   
Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan 79 9 Purdue 77 59%   
Tue, Feb 17 25 Iowa 71 15 Nebraska 70 52%   
Tue, Feb 17 39 Ohio St. 81 26 Wisconsin 80 55%   
Tue, Feb 17 13 Michigan St. 73 34 UCLA 66 76%   
Tue, Feb 17 71 Minnesota 67 82 Oregon 69 57%   
Wed, Feb 18 6 Illinois 82 47 USC 74 76%   
Wed, Feb 18 105 Maryland 70 64 Northwestern 77 75%   
Wed, Feb 18 108 Penn St. 78 122 Rutgers 73 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.1 92.8 4.9 1.7 0.5 0.1
Illinois 2.4 15.8 46.0 23.6 10.5 2.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Purdue 3.5 6.9 25.0 24.1 21.3 11.8 6.9 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 4.8 0.6 5.6 12.7 20.0 29.3 19.8 7.9 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Nebraska 2.8 7.3 39.6 27.5 16.7 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Iowa 7.6 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 7.0 12.7 21.0 21.4 17.2 10.3 4.4 0.4 0.0
Wisconsin 5.0 0.2 5.6 11.3 18.5 26.8 22.4 9.6 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
Indiana 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.8 16.2 22.7 24.5 18.7 6.6 0.6 0.0
UCLA 6.9 0.1 1.2 2.6 5.5 11.3 17.0 27.8 18.1 9.5 4.5 2.3 0.1
Ohio St. 8.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.0 15.4 19.5 21.1 21.3 9.9 0.8 0.0
Washington 11.9 0.0 0.3 1.6 7.0 19.7 48.9 16.9 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
USC 10.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.0 8.7 13.6 24.0 35.9 10.4 0.7
Northwestern 15.2 0.0 1.5 10.4 21.3 24.8 21.1 14.2 6.7
Minnesota 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 6.1 29.9 45.3 11.5 3.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
Oregon 16.1 0.1 1.0 5.5 11.6 17.1 18.3 21.8 24.6
Maryland 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 6.0 18.2 33.1 19.8 13.6 7.0 2.0
Penn St. 15.9 0.7 4.8 15.4 20.8 20.7 19.9 17.8
Rutgers 15.3 0.2 3.5 11.5 21.3 19.2 17.1 16.2 10.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.0 0.3 2.2 11.1 29.2 37.7 19.5
Illinois 16 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.3 2.6 12.6 30.4 37.3 16.7
Purdue 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.1 0.9 4.2 13.0 24.8 29.8 21.0 6.3
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.1 2.4 13.5 32.2 34.0 15.6 2.2
Nebraska 15 - 5 26 - 5 0.1 1.1 6.0 19.7 32.3 29.5 11.4
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 1.0 6.3 17.6 27.6 26.3 15.6 5.0 0.7
Wisconsin 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.3 4.5 16.7 30.8 29.9 14.9 2.8
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 11 1.1 8.8 27.3 34.6 21.4 6.0 0.8
UCLA 12 - 8 20 - 11 1.9 10.1 23.3 30.6 22.3 9.6 2.0 0.2
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 2.3 12.9 26.7 31.1 19.5 6.6 0.9
Washington 8 - 12 16 - 15 0.5 3.7 12.9 25.9 30.2 20.4 6.4
USC 10 - 10 20 - 10 3.4 16.8 29.9 29.0 15.7 4.6 0.6
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 3.6 18.7 35.6 28.7 11.2 2.2 0.1
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 2.6 13.9 28.7 30.6 17.9 5.5 0.7 0.0
Oregon 4 - 16 11 - 20 3.3 15.2 28.8 28.7 16.9 6.1 0.9 0.0
Maryland 5 - 15 12 - 19 8.2 26.6 33.7 22.3 7.7 1.4 0.2
Penn St. 4 - 16 13 - 18 9.1 29.1 33.7 20.6 6.5 1.0 0.0
Rutgers 4 - 16 11 - 20 6.2 20.4 30.5 25.4 12.8 4.0 0.6 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 92.8% 75.8 12.7 3.5 0.7 0.0
Illinois 15.8% 3.6 8.5 3.0 0.7 0.0
Purdue 6.9% 1.1 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.0
Michigan St. 0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 7.3% 1.0 3.4 2.2 0.7 0.0
Iowa 0.0% 0.0
Wisconsin 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1
Indiana
UCLA 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ohio St.
Washington
USC
Northwestern
Minnesota
Oregon
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 1   85.4 14.4 0.3 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2   19.1 40.1 28.0 10.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 2   14.3 35.9 30.8 13.2 4.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 99.9% 6.4% 93.5% 4   1.2 6.5 18.6 26.4 24.6 15.2 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Nebraska 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 3   3.5 16.5 33.3 27.3 13.2 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 92.7% 1.8% 90.9% 8   0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 6.9 13.7 18.6 18.8 14.6 10.4 5.5 0.0 7.3 92.6%
Wisconsin 97.9% 2.1% 95.8% 7   0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 10.3 19.4 25.6 20.1 11.5 4.6 0.9 2.1 97.9%
Indiana 74.5% 1.0% 73.5% 10   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.4 8.4 14.4 16.4 16.5 13.5 0.1 25.5 74.2%
UCLA 77.6% 1.2% 76.4% 10   0.1 0.4 1.3 3.8 8.9 15.6 18.0 17.3 12.2 0.1 22.4 77.3%
Ohio St. 58.9% 0.6% 58.3% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.0 8.0 11.5 14.7 17.9 0.3 41.1 58.6%
Washington 6.1% 0.1% 6.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 4.5 0.2 93.9 6.0%
USC 62.1% 0.2% 61.9% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 7.1 13.7 19.0 19.4 0.2 37.9 62.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 99.6 0.4%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.7 0.0 0.6 7.5 31.4 42.7 17.1 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 9.4 0.1 1.5 13.8 39.8 35.4 9.3 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.7 5.1 21.2 36.2 26.9 8.7 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.0 0.0 1.1 7.4 24.6 35.2 24.2 6.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 96.4% 2.2 3.6 21.5 39.9 26.9 7.4 0.8 0.0
Final Four 80.3% 1.1 19.7 49.8 26.4 3.9 0.2
Final Game 54.6% 0.6 45.4 47.8 6.8
Champion 32.9% 0.3 67.1 32.9

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 86.4% 67.2% 48.2% 32.2% 21.0%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 71.7% 42.4% 22.1% 10.8% 4.9%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.3% 68.4% 37.7% 18.4% 8.6% 3.9%
Michigan St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 89.1% 50.1% 20.8% 9.1% 3.7% 1.3%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.7% 55.3% 24.0% 9.9% 3.9% 1.3%
Iowa 92.7% 5.1% 90.6% 56.4% 18.0% 6.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Wisconsin 97.9% 0.9% 97.5% 61.5% 19.5% 6.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Indiana 74.5% 13.0% 69.1% 35.9% 9.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
UCLA 77.6% 11.8% 72.4% 37.1% 9.1% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Ohio St. 58.9% 17.5% 51.7% 24.5% 6.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 6.1% 4.6% 4.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 62.1% 19.0% 52.0% 19.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%