Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   22 - 1 12 - 1 +25.9      +12.1 5 +13.7 1 78.2 12 +28.7 2 +26.0 1
6 Illinois 100.0%   2   20 - 4 11 - 2 +22.0      +14.3 1 +7.7 21 66.1 247 +22.4 8 +24.8 3
9 Purdue 100.0%   3   19 - 4 9 - 3 +20.4      +13.1 3 +7.3 28 63.9 307 +20.4 12 +18.2 5
10 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   20 - 4 10 - 3 +19.8      +8.0 42 +11.8 4 66.0 252 +20.7 10 +19.7 4
13 Nebraska 100.0%   3   21 - 2 10 - 2 +18.7      +8.9 29 +9.8 11 68.4 193 +26.4 5 +25.9 2
22 Iowa 97.5%   7   18 - 5 8 - 4 +16.9      +9.7 21 +7.2 30 61.5 349 +17.7 23 +17.2 6
34 Indiana 72.6%   10   17 - 8 8 - 6 +14.6      +9.3 26 +5.4 48 67.9 203 +14.1 37 +14.5 9
35 UCLA 77.0%   9   17 - 7 9 - 4 +14.3      +8.1 40 +6.2 37 63.9 310 +13.7 41 +15.8 8
38 Wisconsin 77.7%   10   16 - 7 8 - 4 +13.7      +8.7 31 +5.0 53 72.1 87 +13.9 40 +16.6 7
39 Ohio St. 52.8%   11   15 - 8 7 - 6 +13.6      +9.6 22 +4.0 69 67.6 211 +12.8 45 +13.8 10
45 Washington 16.0%   12 - 12 4 - 9 +12.0      +7.2 47 +4.8 57 68.6 184 +9.7 61 +11.0 12
46 USC 67.3%   11   17 - 6 7 - 6 +11.3      +4.2 76 +7.1 33 74.4 45 +15.5 33 +13.1 11
64 Northwestern 0.0%   10 - 14 2 - 11 +8.4      +5.3 66 +3.1 90 65.1 273 +5.0 95 +2.0 16
72 Minnesota 0.4%   11 - 13 4 - 9 +7.8      +4.1 79 +3.8 71 59.9 361 +5.5 89 +8.3 13
80 Oregon 0.0%   8 - 16 1 - 12 +7.0      +3.8 86 +3.1 89 65.8 257 +3.3 111 -0.6 17
111 Maryland 0.0%   9 - 14 2 - 10 +3.6      +2.0 118 +1.6 122 68.4 192 +5.2 92 +3.4 15
113 Penn St. 0.0%   10 - 14 1 - 12 +3.3      +4.6 71 -1.3 218 69.2 167 +2.6 118 -0.8 18
121 Rutgers 0.0%   9 - 15 2 - 11 +2.7      +2.0 117 +0.6 147 65.9 255 +2.5 123 +4.3 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 7 6 Illinois 82 10 Michigan St. 85   
Sat, Feb 7 35 UCLA 77 45 Washington 73   
Sat, Feb 7 80 Oregon 64 9 Purdue 68   
Sat, Feb 7 34 Indiana 78 38 Wisconsin 77   
Sat, Feb 7 13 Nebraska 80 121 Rutgers 68   
Sun, Feb 8 22 Iowa 76 64 Northwestern 70   
Sun, Feb 8 113 Penn St. 75 46 USC 77   
Sun, Feb 8 111 Maryland 67 72 Minnesota 62   
Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan 82 39 Ohio St. 61   
Mon, Feb 9 34 Indiana 92 80 Oregon 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 10 13 Nebraska 74 9 Purdue 73 55%   
Tue, Feb 10 6 Illinois 85 38 Wisconsin 74 85%   
Wed, Feb 11 39 Ohio St. 81 46 USC 75 70%   
Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan 84 64 Northwestern 70 90%   
Wed, Feb 11 113 Penn St. 73 45 Washington 84 86%   
Wed, Feb 11 22 Iowa 76 111 Maryland 66 83%   
Fri, Feb 13 10 Michigan St. 76 38 Wisconsin 73 62%   
Sat, Feb 14 22 Iowa 71 9 Purdue 72 52%   
Sat, Feb 14 39 Ohio St. 73 23 Virginia 76 62%   
Sat, Feb 14 1 Michigan 83 35 UCLA 69 91%   
Sat, Feb 14 72 Minnesota 67 45 Washington 74 75%   
Sat, Feb 14 13 Nebraska 79 64 Northwestern 66 89%   
Sat, Feb 14 80 Oregon 79 113 Penn St. 73 74%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.3 75.8 16.9 5.5 1.5 0.2 0.1
Illinois 1.9 36.6 40.9 17.5 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue 4.4 2.5 9.2 17.8 26.2 23.8 11.5 5.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
Michigan St. 4.1 2.2 8.8 19.6 34.5 23.3 7.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 2.7 14.1 33.2 30.7 13.8 5.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iowa 6.0 0.2 1.6 5.6 11.4 19.3 26.5 16.2 9.5 5.9 2.7 1.0 0.2
Indiana 8.4 0.1 0.9 3.1 8.9 16.4 21.5 22.9 17.1 7.6 1.5 0.1
UCLA 6.9 0.0 0.4 1.6 5.2 12.2 22.2 25.6 15.8 9.1 5.2 2.2 0.4
Wisconsin 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.7 10.2 17.9 19.9 18.6 13.8 8.2 3.9 1.2 0.0
Ohio St. 8.8 0.1 0.9 3.4 8.0 13.3 16.1 17.9 18.8 15.1 6.1 0.3
Washington 11.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 9.0 15.4 24.8 35.8 7.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 8.2 10.5 14.5 20.0 23.1 17.8 0.9 0.0
Northwestern 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 13.8 30.7 25.9 16.4 9.7 2.5
Minnesota 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.2 16.6 61.9 11.5 3.2 0.9 0.1
Oregon 15.6 0.0 0.4 7.0 18.6 20.2 22.5 18.4 12.8
Maryland 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 7.3 24.9 21.1 21.3 18.6 6.0
Penn St. 16.7 0.1 1.2 8.1 12.1 18.0 22.6 38.0
Rutgers 14.9 0.1 1.7 14.0 30.1 22.1 15.0 10.7 6.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 17 - 3 28 - 3 0.0 0.5 3.9 14.6 29.8 34.4 16.7
Illinois 16 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.6 3.4 13.3 30.0 35.7 17.0
Purdue 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.1 0.5 3.3 10.0 19.7 27.2 23.7 12.6 2.8
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.0 0.7 5.3 17.9 31.2 29.3 13.3 2.2
Nebraska 16 - 4 27 - 4 0.0 0.6 4.1 13.0 24.5 30.3 21.3 6.2
Iowa 13 - 7 23 - 8 0.1 1.2 5.6 15.2 25.0 26.8 17.5 7.3 1.3
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 11 1.0 8.9 29.0 34.5 20.4 5.6 0.6
UCLA 12 - 8 20 - 11 2.1 11.1 24.7 29.8 21.9 8.4 1.9 0.1
Wisconsin 12 - 8 20 - 11 0.6 5.1 16.1 27.0 26.7 16.4 6.4 1.6 0.1
Ohio St. 10 - 10 19 - 12 0.8 5.3 16.9 28.1 27.4 15.8 5.0 0.7
Washington 9 - 11 17 - 14 0.0 0.6 3.6 11.6 23.5 29.7 22.7 8.3
USC 10 - 10 20 - 10 2.8 14.1 26.4 28.0 19.0 7.7 1.9 0.3
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 3.0 17.3 33.8 29.5 12.8 3.2 0.4 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 2.7 15.0 30.0 29.6 17.2 4.9 0.7 0.0
Oregon 4 - 16 11 - 20 2.8 13.7 27.0 29.6 18.8 6.8 1.3 0.0
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 8.8 27.0 32.3 21.5 8.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 3 - 17 12 - 19 9.7 29.6 33.2 19.5 6.7 1.2 0.1
Rutgers 4 - 16 11 - 20 5.1 18.6 30.2 26.8 14.3 4.3 0.7 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 75.8% 53.4 17.4 4.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Illinois 36.6% 16.7 14.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 0.0
Purdue 2.5% 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
Michigan St. 2.2% 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 14.1% 3.5 6.6 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
Iowa 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana
UCLA 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.0% 0.0
Ohio St.
Washington
USC
Northwestern
Minnesota
Oregon
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 1   84.3 15.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 20.1% 80.0% 2   31.3 43.5 19.9 4.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 3   8.5 24.9 32.6 21.0 9.0 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3   4.3 16.5 31.6 27.6 13.4 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 3   7.8 25.6 35.7 20.6 7.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 97.5% 3.1% 94.4% 7   0.2 1.3 5.0 10.6 15.5 18.9 17.9 13.2 8.6 4.7 1.7 2.5 97.4%
Indiana 72.6% 0.8% 71.8% 10   0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 6.4 12.9 16.5 17.6 14.8 0.2 27.4 72.3%
UCLA 77.0% 1.0% 76.0% 9   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 8.0 15.6 19.2 16.8 12.0 0.1 23.0 76.8%
Wisconsin 77.7% 0.7% 77.0% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.7 8.8 14.6 18.7 17.1 12.8 0.2 22.3 77.6%
Ohio St. 52.8% 0.5% 52.2% 11   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.6 6.3 9.8 14.2 17.8 0.4 47.2 52.5%
Washington 16.0% 0.2% 15.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.4 10.3 0.4 84.0 15.9%
USC 67.3% 0.2% 67.2% 11   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 9.8 17.3 19.0 16.5 0.3 32.7 67.3%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 99.6 0.4%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.6 0.0 1.1 9.9 33.1 39.6 15.2 1.2
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.1 2.5 18.4 39.6 31.6 7.4 0.4
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.5 5.6 22.6 37.3 25.2 7.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.8 6.3 21.8 35.2 26.6 8.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 97.3% 2.3 2.7 19.3 38.6 29.1 9.0 1.1 0.1
Final Four 82.1% 1.2 17.9 48.1 29.1 4.7 0.2
Final Game 57.7% 0.7 42.3 49.6 8.1
Champion 36.4% 0.4 63.6 36.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.8% 86.7% 67.3% 47.9% 32.6% 21.5%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.8% 73.6% 45.8% 24.7% 12.8% 6.5%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.0% 64.4% 34.0% 16.3% 7.8% 3.5%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.9% 60.8% 28.5% 13.2% 5.7% 2.4%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.0% 59.1% 27.0% 11.5% 4.8% 1.9%
Iowa 97.5% 1.6% 96.8% 70.5% 29.3% 11.4% 4.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Indiana 72.6% 14.3% 66.9% 34.3% 8.9% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
UCLA 77.0% 11.3% 72.1% 36.9% 9.2% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
Wisconsin 77.7% 12.5% 72.0% 34.8% 7.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Ohio St. 52.8% 17.5% 45.6% 21.0% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 16.0% 10.5% 11.2% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 67.3% 15.5% 59.0% 22.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%