Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   10 - 0 2 - 0 28 - 3 18 - 2 +26.7      +12.7 3 +14.0 1 79.0 13 +27.5 3 +20.9 4
6 Purdue 100.0%   2   11 - 1 2 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 4 +21.7      +13.8 1 +7.9 17 63.7 324 +24.1 8 +18.5 5
12 Illinois 97.1%   4   8 - 3 1 - 1 22 - 9 13 - 7 +17.9      +11.7 4 +6.2 31 71.0 141 +16.4 27 +14.3 7
14 Michigan St. 99.3%   3   11 - 1 2 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +17.6      +6.8 46 +10.7 7 66.3 273 +23.3 9 +26.4 2
18 Iowa 92.4%   6   10 - 2 1 - 1 22 - 9 12 - 8 +16.6      +8.6 24 +7.9 16 61.9 351 +16.7 24 +11.7 11
25 Nebraska 96.2%   5   11 - 0 2 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 8 +15.0      +8.5 26 +6.6 28 69.5 183 +25.7 6 +32.7 1
26 Indiana 68.8%   8   9 - 3 1 - 1 20 - 11 11 - 9 +14.7      +7.2 42 +7.5 21 69.7 176 +10.1 60 +4.8 15
29 UCLA 78.2%   8   9 - 3 2 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14.2      +9.0 22 +5.2 47 64.0 315 +13.0 45 +26.0 3
31 Ohio St. 69.8%   8   8 - 3 1 - 1 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13.6      +8.4 27 +5.3 44 70.3 161 +11.2 56 +13.4 8
39 USC 78.2%   8   11 - 1 1 - 1 20 - 10 10 - 10 +12.5      +7.3 41 +5.2 45 74.3 58 +18.1 17 +9.6 12
48 Wisconsin 30.7%   7 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 14 9 - 11 +11.0      +6.0 57 +4.9 50 73.2 79 +9.1 67 +12.0 10
49 Washington 31.5%   7 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 14 9 - 11 +10.4      +5.7 58 +4.8 54 68.8 202 +8.2 72 +13.4 9
61 Northwestern 10.2%   7 - 5 0 - 2 15 - 16 7 - 13 +9.0      +5.6 60 +3.4 80 67.3 242 +5.9 92 -3.1 18
64 Oregon 8.3%   6 - 5 0 - 2 14 - 17 7 - 13 +8.7      +5.1 65 +3.7 73 69.6 179 +4.6 105 -3.0 17
92 Maryland 1.8%   6 - 6 0 - 2 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.8      +3.1 100 +2.8 94 71.5 124 +5.9 93 +6.1 14
98 Minnesota 1.7%   6 - 5 1 - 1 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.3      +2.5 111 +2.8 92 61.5 353 +2.7 130 +18.2 6
106 Penn St. 0.8%   8 - 3 0 - 2 14 - 17 5 - 15 +4.2      +4.9 68 -0.7 191 70.7 148 +5.7 96 +0.7 16
144 Rutgers 0.0%   6 - 6 0 - 2 11 - 20 4 - 16 +1.1      -0.4 176 +1.5 118 67.3 244 +0.2 159 +6.7 13




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 17 62 Arizona St. 77 29 UCLA 90   
Wed, Dec 17 64 Oregon 94 249 Portland 69   
Wed, Dec 17 39 USC 97 294 Texas San Antonio 70   
Fri, Dec 19 35 Villanova 76 48 Wisconsin 66   
Fri, Dec 19 109 Seattle 70 49 Washington 66   
Fri, Dec 19 255 Cal Poly 87 29 UCLA 108   
Sat, Dec 20 22 North Carolina 71 31 Ohio St. 70   
Sat, Dec 20 34 Auburn 60 6 Purdue 88   
Sat, Dec 20 58 Butler 61 61 Northwestern 58   
Sat, Dec 20 92 Maryland 72 27 Virginia 80   
Sat, Dec 20 14 Michigan St. 79 135 Oakland 70   
Sat, Dec 20 239 Penn 69 144 Rutgers 70   
Sat, Dec 20 309 Bucknell 39 18 Iowa 94   
Sat, Dec 20 335 Chicago St. 58 26 Indiana 78   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 21 106 Penn St. 75 102 Pittsburgh 76 51%   
Sun, Dec 21 5 Gonzaga 85 64 Oregon 72 89%   
Sun, Dec 21 231 Campbell 65 98 Minnesota 78 88%   
Sun, Dec 21 232 La Salle 56 1 Michigan 90 100%   
Sun, Dec 21 25 Nebraska 89 333 North Dakota 61 99%   
Mon, Dec 22 12 Illinois 84 47 Missouri 77 75%   
Mon, Dec 22 26 Indiana 80 174 Siena 61 95%   
Mon, Dec 22 245 San Diego 69 49 Washington 87 95%   
Mon, Dec 22 322 Central Michigan 64 48 Wisconsin 88 98%   
Tue, Dec 23 241 Grambling St. 63 31 Ohio St. 84 97%   
Tue, Dec 23 271 UC Riverside 61 29 UCLA 84 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.4 74.3 17.0 5.0 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue 2.7 25.4 34.6 16.3 9.1 5.7 3.4 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 4.8 4.7 13.6 18.0 16.3 13.6 10.8 8.0 5.5 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 4.5 6.9 15.7 20.0 15.7 12.7 9.2 6.8 4.9 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 6.1 2.4 8.3 12.0 12.7 12.7 11.5 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 5.8 2.9 9.2 13.4 12.9 12.9 11.4 9.9 8.0 6.5 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana 8.0 0.6 2.8 5.1 6.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.1 8.1 6.0 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
UCLA 6.4 1.9 7.0 11.0 11.8 12.4 11.6 11.1 9.2 7.6 5.9 4.0 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 8.0 0.6 2.6 5.1 7.2 9.4 10.6 11.2 10.9 10.3 9.3 7.7 5.7 4.2 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
USC 8.9 0.3 1.6 3.5 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.0 10.0 8.0 5.6 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.2
Wisconsin 10.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.3 5.7 7.1 9.0 10.3 11.2 11.3 10.6 9.2 7.0 4.5 3.0 1.4 0.3
Washington 10.3 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.0 8.7 10.0 11.1 11.4 10.8 9.1 7.3 5.1 3.4 1.6 0.6
Northwestern 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.9 9.4 11.8 13.5 13.1 12.2 10.0 6.9 3.0
Oregon 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.5 5.1 6.9 8.8 10.6 12.4 13.2 12.2 10.4 7.3 3.6
Maryland 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.7 5.5 7.7 10.9 13.1 14.9 15.5 13.6 9.1
Minnesota 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.1 7.3 9.4 11.8 13.2 14.4 13.7 10.7 4.8
Penn St. 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.0 10.4 13.7 17.8 20.8 18.9
Rutgers 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.1 6.6 10.4 14.7 22.0 36.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.1 12.0 18.8 24.6 22.7 11.5
Purdue 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.9 7.8 12.4 16.5 17.6 16.6 12.0 6.2 1.6
Illinois 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.9 9.7 14.6 17.0 17.5 14.5 9.4 4.5 1.7 0.3
Michigan St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.9 8.8 13.0 16.0 17.1 15.6 11.0 6.3 2.6 0.6 0.1
Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 4.1 6.8 10.5 13.6 15.7 15.7 12.8 9.6 5.2 2.3 0.6 0.1
Nebraska 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 6.2 10.2 12.9 15.0 16.2 13.3 10.0 6.1 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
Indiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.5 9.2 13.3 15.5 15.8 14.0 10.7 6.4 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.3 7.5 11.7 14.7 15.8 15.0 11.9 8.3 4.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.4 8.7 12.5 14.9 15.8 14.3 11.1 6.9 3.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
USC 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 8.0 11.7 14.8 15.7 14.4 11.9 7.9 4.4 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0
Wisconsin 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.6 8.1 12.1 14.8 15.7 14.5 11.8 7.8 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.1 8.6 12.0 15.0 15.6 14.0 11.4 7.6 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.5 8.5 13.1 15.9 16.8 14.7 10.9 6.8 3.8 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 7 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.0 9.0 13.0 15.9 15.9 13.7 10.5 7.2 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Maryland 6 - 14 0.3 1.8 5.0 9.8 14.5 17.4 16.2 14.3 9.4 6.0 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 0.6 2.8 7.2 12.1 16.1 16.9 15.2 12.0 8.1 4.9 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 5 - 15 1.0 4.4 10.3 15.8 18.6 17.2 13.9 9.1 5.3 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 4 - 16 3.1 10.5 17.0 19.6 18.0 13.9 8.8 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 74.3% 59.6 12.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Purdue 25.4% 14.7 8.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 4.7% 1.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 6.9% 3.2 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Iowa 2.4% 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 2.9% 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Indiana 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 1.9% 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0
Oregon 0.0% 0.0
Maryland
Minnesota
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 1   79.1 18.1 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 19.9% 80.0% 2   37.1 33.9 17.0 7.3 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 97.1% 6.6% 90.5% 4   3.8 8.8 15.1 17.9 16.4 13.1 9.5 5.6 3.3 2.2 1.5 0.1 2.9 96.9%
Michigan St. 99.3% 6.5% 92.8% 3   6.3 15.2 22.7 20.9 15.3 9.5 4.6 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 99.2%
Iowa 92.4% 4.5% 87.9% 6   1.7 4.8 9.8 14.0 14.4 13.9 11.6 8.2 6.2 4.7 3.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 92.1%
Nebraska 96.2% 2.8% 93.4% 5   1.7 5.8 12.5 16.3 17.1 14.8 10.7 7.1 5.0 3.2 2.1 0.1 3.8 96.1%
Indiana 68.8% 1.9% 66.9% 8   0.2 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.7 8.4 10.7 11.2 9.7 8.3 6.5 0.3 0.0 31.2 68.2%
UCLA 78.2% 1.9% 76.3% 8   0.2 0.7 2.8 5.5 8.7 10.9 13.1 12.5 10.0 8.1 5.5 0.2 0.0 21.8 77.7%
Ohio St. 69.8% 1.4% 68.5% 8   0.1 0.4 1.7 3.8 6.2 8.6 11.5 12.2 10.3 8.5 6.1 0.4 30.2 69.4%
USC 78.2% 0.8% 77.4% 8   0.1 0.7 2.3 4.5 8.4 11.6 12.5 11.9 10.4 8.6 6.9 0.3 21.8 78.1%
Wisconsin 30.7% 0.4% 30.3% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.2 5.7 6.3 6.2 0.3 0.0 69.3 30.4%
Washington 31.5% 0.3% 31.1% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.7 6.4 6.6 5.9 0.3 68.5 31.2%
Northwestern 10.2% 0.1% 10.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.9 0.2 89.8 10.1%
Oregon 8.3% 0.1% 8.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 0.1 0.0 91.7 8.2%
Maryland 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 98.2 1.8%
Minnesota 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 98.3 1.7%
Penn St. 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 99.2 0.8%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 88.7% 72.6% 55.0% 39.5% 27.8%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 74.5% 47.7% 26.9% 14.0% 7.0%
Illinois 97.1% 1.6% 96.4% 79.7% 45.3% 20.2% 9.0% 3.7% 1.4%
Michigan St. 99.3% 0.5% 99.1% 85.7% 50.4% 22.1% 9.5% 3.9% 1.4%
Iowa 92.4% 3.5% 91.0% 69.2% 33.8% 14.2% 5.8% 2.2% 0.8%
Nebraska 96.2% 2.2% 95.0% 69.6% 31.8% 11.4% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Indiana 68.8% 7.5% 65.7% 41.7% 15.5% 6.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
UCLA 78.2% 6.2% 75.4% 47.4% 16.4% 6.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
Ohio St. 69.8% 7.0% 66.5% 39.7% 13.5% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
USC 78.2% 7.7% 74.3% 42.3% 13.3% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Wisconsin 30.7% 6.9% 27.3% 13.7% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 31.5% 6.8% 28.0% 13.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Northwestern 10.2% 3.4% 8.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 8.3% 2.9% 6.9% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 1.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 1.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.7 0.0 1.1 10.5 32.3 37.1 16.2 2.6 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 9.4 0.1 2.4 15.9 37.1 32.3 11.0 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 1.4 7.6 22.0 32.4 24.9 9.7 1.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 3.9 0.0 1.2 8.7 26.0 34.6 21.4 6.9 1.1 0.1
Elite Eight 96.9% 2.1 3.1 22.4 41.6 25.7 6.5 0.6 0.0
Final Four 82.2% 1.2 17.8 50.4 27.7 4.0 0.1
Final Game 59.3% 0.7 40.7 51.6 7.7
Champion 39.5% 0.4 60.5 39.5