Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   25 - 1 15 - 1 +26.9      +13.2 3 +13.7 1 78.3 13 +30.4 1 +28.6 1
6 Illinois 100.0%   2   21 - 5 12 - 3 +21.9      +14.6 1 +7.3 28 65.2 273 +21.0 10 +22.1 2
8 Purdue 100.0%   2   21 - 5 11 - 4 +20.9      +13.5 2 +7.4 27 64.0 303 +21.4 9 +20.0 4
10 Michigan St. 99.9%   4   21 - 5 11 - 4 +19.3      +8.2 34 +11.1 7 66.1 249 +19.8 14 +18.6 6
14 Nebraska 100.0%   3   22 - 4 11 - 4 +18.7      +7.4 45 +11.3 6 68.1 195 +22.3 8 +21.5 3
26 Iowa 94.8%   7   19 - 7 9 - 6 +15.5      +8.8 31 +6.7 32 60.7 352 +15.9 30 +15.2 7
29 Wisconsin 94.1%   8   18 - 8 10 - 5 +14.9      +9.9 20 +4.9 54 71.8 96 +15.7 31 +18.6 5
35 Ohio St. 65.0%   11   17 - 9 9 - 6 +14.4      +9.9 21 +4.5 58 67.7 207 +13.3 45 +15.1 9
36 Indiana 65.8%   10   17 - 9 8 - 7 +14.2      +8.8 29 +5.4 47 67.3 222 +13.9 41 +14.2 10
39 UCLA 65.9%   10   17 - 9 9 - 6 +13.3      +7.7 44 +5.6 45 63.6 316 +13.4 44 +15.2 8
45 Washington 8.0%   13 - 13 5 - 10 +11.5      +6.2 56 +5.3 50 68.1 197 +8.6 66 +9.3 12
49 USC 62.4%   11   17 - 7 7 - 7 +11.3      +4.5 76 +6.8 31 75.0 33 +14.8 34 +12.4 11
65 Minnesota 0.3%   12 - 14 5 - 10 +8.5      +3.5 90 +5.0 52 59.6 362 +6.3 86 +8.9 13
67 Northwestern 0.0%   10 - 16 2 - 13 +8.4      +4.9 68 +3.4 76 65.5 265 +4.9 96 +2.1 17
88 Oregon 0.0%   9 - 17 2 - 13 +6.1      +2.9 102 +3.2 82 65.5 263 +3.1 113 +0.6 18
107 Maryland 0.0%   10 - 15 3 - 11 +3.9      +2.1 115 +1.9 121 68.1 198 +5.9 89 +4.8 15
109 Penn St. 0.0%   11 - 15 2 - 13 +3.7      +4.4 78 -0.6 194 68.9 167 +3.9 103 +2.7 16
117 Rutgers 0.0%   10 - 15 3 - 11 +3.1      +1.8 119 +1.3 136 65.7 257 +3.4 107 +5.2 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 14 35 Ohio St. 66 22 Virginia 70   
Sat, Feb 14 14 Nebraska 68 67 Northwestern 49   
Sat, Feb 14 1 Michigan 86 39 UCLA 56   
Sat, Feb 14 88 Oregon 83 109 Penn St. 72   
Sat, Feb 14 65 Minnesota 57 45 Washington 69   
Sat, Feb 14 26 Iowa 57 8 Purdue 78   
Sun, Feb 15 6 Illinois 71 36 Indiana 51   
Sun, Feb 15 107 Maryland 57 117 Rutgers 68   
Tue, Feb 17 26 Iowa 57 14 Nebraska 52   
Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan 91 8 Purdue 80   
Tue, Feb 17 65 Minnesota 61 88 Oregon 44   
Tue, Feb 17 35 Ohio St. 86 29 Wisconsin 69   
Tue, Feb 17 10 Michigan St. 82 39 UCLA 59   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 18 6 Illinois 82 49 USC 74 77%   
Wed, Feb 18 109 Penn St. 77 117 Rutgers 74 64%   
Wed, Feb 18 107 Maryland 69 67 Northwestern 77 76%   
Fri, Feb 20 36 Indiana 71 8 Purdue 80 82%   
Sat, Feb 21 2 Duke 75 1 Michigan 78 60%   
Sat, Feb 21 6 Illinois 77 39 UCLA 71 70%   
Sat, Feb 21 88 Oregon 70 49 USC 78 78%   
Sat, Feb 21 65 Minnesota 71 117 Rutgers 63 79%   
Sat, Feb 21 107 Maryland 72 45 Washington 76 67%   
Sat, Feb 21 14 Nebraska 84 109 Penn St. 66 94%   
Sun, Feb 22 26 Iowa 73 29 Wisconsin 76 59%   
Sun, Feb 22 10 Michigan St. 77 35 Ohio St. 70 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.0 98.9 1.1 0.0 0.0
Illinois 2.2 9.0 71.1 13.1 5.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Purdue 3.3 0.3 29.4 32.1 21.7 11.0 4.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 4.4 0.2 7.2 16.3 23.6 37.2 12.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 3.1 0.3 31.9 35.6 24.7 5.8 1.5 0.3 0.0
Iowa 7.6 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.5 15.7 24.4 22.3 18.3 9.3 2.4 0.1
Wisconsin 5.6 1.3 5.6 12.2 27.0 34.9 12.2 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.0
Ohio St. 7.7 0.0 0.4 1.7 6.2 13.1 25.1 21.2 16.3 12.5 3.3 0.1
Indiana 8.8 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 14.4 19.1 23.3 25.5 9.8 0.9 0.1
UCLA 7.6 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.9 15.2 27.1 22.2 13.7 8.3 4.6 0.3 0.0
Washington 11.7 0.0 0.4 2.2 7.9 23.5 50.3 13.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
USC 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 6.3 9.5 12.6 20.8 35.8 11.9 1.2
Minnesota 12.6 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.6 32.2 54.1 5.6 0.9 0.0
Northwestern 15.2 0.0 0.6 5.5 27.1 28.9 19.1 11.9 6.9
Oregon 16.5 0.1 0.7 8.6 15.5 18.9 27.0 29.2
Maryland 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 5.3 34.3 27.7 20.2 9.0 2.3
Penn St. 16.1 0.1 1.0 14.7 18.9 20.0 27.7 17.7
Rutgers 14.6 0.0 0.3 3.9 12.5 41.1 21.5 9.9 8.3 2.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 29 - 2 0.1 2.2 16.2 43.8 37.7
Illinois 16 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.8 7.1 26.8 43.4 21.8
Purdue 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.1 1.7 9.4 25.8 38.4 24.7
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.3 7.2 29.6 40.6 19.6 2.7
Nebraska 15 - 5 26 - 5 0.0 0.6 6.1 24.6 41.5 27.1
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 3.1 17.7 35.8 30.2 11.4 1.8
Wisconsin 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.6 7.3 25.4 37.3 24.7 4.6
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 3.6 18.9 34.5 29.4 11.7 1.9
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 11 1.5 12.5 33.4 34.9 15.6 2.2
UCLA 11 - 9 19 - 12 4.0 17.4 31.3 29.8 14.6 3.0
Washington 8 - 12 16 - 15 1.2 7.7 21.7 33.0 26.9 9.6
USC 10 - 10 20 - 10 3.2 15.5 29.6 29.4 16.4 5.2 0.7
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 4.4 23.3 40.4 26.2 5.5 0.2
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 3.7 20.0 37.9 28.4 8.9 1.1
Oregon 3 - 17 10 - 21 23.2 38.2 27.5 9.4 1.6 0.1
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 15.7 39.9 31.3 11.1 1.9 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 4 - 16 13 - 18 13.9 36.7 33.7 13.4 2.2 0.1
Rutgers 5 - 15 12 - 19 10.5 29.0 33.0 20.0 6.4 1.0 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 98.9% 90.8 7.6 0.4 0.1
Illinois 9.0% 1.1 7.5 0.4 0.1
Purdue 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1
Michigan St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio St.
Indiana
UCLA
Washington
USC
Minnesota
Northwestern
Oregon
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 51.5% 48.5% 1   91.6 8.4 0.1 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 2   21.2 39.2 27.8 10.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 2   19.5 40.4 28.7 9.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 99.9% 6.1% 93.8% 4   2.0 8.8 23.7 32.1 22.8 8.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Nebraska 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 3   4.0 17.0 33.9 29.1 12.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 94.8% 1.1% 93.7% 7   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 6.9 16.9 21.6 20.6 15.1 8.7 2.7 0.0 5.2 94.8%
Wisconsin 94.1% 1.2% 92.9% 8   0.0 0.2 1.0 5.0 12.7 23.9 24.8 17.0 7.6 2.0 0.0 5.9 94.0%
Ohio St. 65.0% 0.8% 64.2% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.6 8.8 12.4 15.7 18.8 0.4 35.0 64.7%
Indiana 65.8% 0.6% 65.2% 10   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.6 9.9 13.3 16.0 17.2 0.3 0.0 34.2 65.6%
UCLA 65.9% 0.4% 65.5% 10   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 5.1 10.4 15.2 17.5 15.2 0.2 34.1 65.8%
Washington 8.0% 0.1% 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 5.9 0.5 92.0 7.9%
USC 62.4% 0.1% 62.3% 11   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 8.7 14.9 18.0 16.3 0.3 37.6 62.3%
Minnesota 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.0 99.7 0.3%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.6 0.0 1.1 10.2 34.9 39.4 13.7 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.1 2.7 17.8 41.7 30.7 7.0 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.7 6.5 23.7 37.1 24.4 6.8 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.0 0.0 0.9 6.9 23.4 36.5 24.7 6.8 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 97.2% 2.2 2.8 19.9 39.0 29.2 8.3 0.8 0.0
Final Four 83.1% 1.2 16.9 49.7 28.8 4.5 0.2
Final Game 59.4% 0.7 40.6 51.4 8.0
Champion 38.3% 0.4 61.7 38.3

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 88.6% 71.0% 52.9% 37.3% 25.5%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.5% 73.8% 44.4% 23.1% 11.4% 5.3%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.2% 70.4% 40.1% 19.4% 9.1% 4.1%
Michigan St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 92.6% 55.5% 24.1% 10.8% 4.5% 1.7%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.2% 57.6% 24.8% 10.0% 3.8% 1.4%
Iowa 94.8% 2.4% 93.8% 57.2% 17.0% 6.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
Wisconsin 94.1% 1.8% 93.4% 53.5% 13.9% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Ohio St. 65.0% 18.4% 57.6% 28.9% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Indiana 65.8% 16.9% 58.7% 29.4% 7.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
UCLA 65.9% 14.6% 59.1% 26.8% 5.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 8.0% 6.2% 5.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 62.4% 15.7% 54.0% 20.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%