Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   25 - 2 15 - 1 +26.6      +13.0 5 +13.7 1 77.7 15 +27.6 3 +28.8 1
5 Illinois 100.0%   2   22 - 6 13 - 4 +22.6      +15.5 1 +7.1 30 65.3 268 +20.3 11 +20.8 3
7 Purdue 100.0%   2   22 - 5 12 - 4 +21.4      +13.8 2 +7.6 26 64.0 305 +21.5 7 +20.3 4
10 Michigan St. 100.0%   4   22 - 5 12 - 4 +19.4      +7.8 45 +11.6 6 65.8 252 +20.2 12 +19.1 6
12 Nebraska 100.0%   3   23 - 4 12 - 4 +19.0      +7.4 47 +11.7 5 68.2 190 +22.4 6 +21.7 2
26 Wisconsin 97.2%   7   19 - 8 11 - 5 +15.4      +10.4 16 +5.0 51 71.8 93 +16.3 27 +19.2 5
28 Iowa 92.8%   8   19 - 8 9 - 7 +15.1      +8.7 30 +6.4 32 60.6 354 +15.4 30 +14.7 9
33 Ohio St. 65.3%   11   17 - 10 9 - 7 +14.5      +9.6 23 +5.0 52 67.5 212 +13.3 44 +14.9 8
37 UCLA 85.6%   9   18 - 9 10 - 6 +13.7      +8.5 34 +5.3 49 63.8 313 +14.6 36 +16.6 7
38 Indiana 65.8%   11   17 - 10 8 - 8 +13.7      +8.6 32 +5.0 50 67.3 219 +13.7 42 +14.0 10
48 Washington 3.7%   13 - 14 5 - 11 +11.2      +5.9 58 +5.3 47 67.4 214 +8.0 75 +8.1 13
57 USC 23.2%   17 - 9 7 - 9 +9.9      +3.6 92 +6.3 37 75.5 26 +13.0 45 +10.4 11
59 Minnesota 0.3%   13 - 14 6 - 10 +9.0      +4.1 80 +4.9 53 59.6 363 +6.6 87 +9.1 12
70 Northwestern 0.0%   11 - 16 3 - 13 +8.3      +5.0 70 +3.3 85 65.5 263 +5.6 92 +3.5 16
89 Oregon 0.0%   10 - 17 3 - 13 +6.3      +2.7 105 +3.6 74 65.5 261 +4.2 102 +3.2 17
103 Maryland 0.0%   11 - 16 4 - 12 +4.4      +2.5 109 +1.9 116 67.2 221 +6.4 88 +5.7 15
111 Rutgers 0.0%   11 - 16 4 - 12 +3.4      +2.4 110 +0.9 146 65.5 262 +4.2 103 +6.0 14
116 Penn St. 0.0%   11 - 17 2 - 15 +3.1      +4.1 79 -1.0 203 69.2 161 +3.0 115 +0.8 18


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Feb 20 38 Indiana 64 7 Purdue 93   
Sat, Feb 21 2 Duke 68 1 Michigan 63   
Sat, Feb 21 5 Illinois 94 37 UCLA 95   
Sat, Feb 21 103 Maryland 64 48 Washington 60   
Sat, Feb 21 89 Oregon 71 57 USC 70   
Sat, Feb 21 59 Minnesota 80 111 Rutgers 61   
Sat, Feb 21 12 Nebraska 87 116 Penn St. 64   
Sun, Feb 22 10 Michigan St. 66 33 Ohio St. 60   
Sun, Feb 22 28 Iowa 71 26 Wisconsin 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 24 57 USC 72 37 UCLA 79 74%   
Tue, Feb 24 38 Indiana 79 70 Northwestern 70 79%   
Tue, Feb 24 1 Michigan 83 59 Minnesota 62 96%   
Tue, Feb 24 111 Rutgers 71 48 Washington 75 68%   
Wed, Feb 25 28 Iowa 74 33 Ohio St. 70 64%   
Wed, Feb 25 89 Oregon 73 26 Wisconsin 79 72%   
Wed, Feb 25 103 Maryland 63 12 Nebraska 80 94%   
Thu, Feb 26 10 Michigan St. 69 7 Purdue 74 69%   
Fri, Feb 27 5 Illinois 80 1 Michigan 81 54%   
Sat, Feb 28 48 Washington 78 26 Wisconsin 79 55%   
Sat, Feb 28 59 Minnesota 67 37 UCLA 69 57%   
Sat, Feb 28 70 Northwestern 74 89 Oregon 69 69%   
Sat, Feb 28 12 Nebraska 77 57 USC 71 72%   
Sat, Feb 28 28 Iowa 78 116 Penn St. 69 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.0 99.9 0.0 0.0
Illinois 2.4 2.1 63.4 24.5 9.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
Purdue 3.0 0.8 46.0 22.1 16.2 10.1 4.2 0.5 0.1
Michigan St. 4.3 0.4 12.1 14.4 21.4 38.4 12.0 1.3 0.0
Nebraska 2.9 0.8 47.1 23.5 20.7 5.8 1.6 0.4 0.0
Wisconsin 5.2 2.9 5.8 13.6 30.7 36.8 8.9 1.2 0.1
Iowa 8.3 0.1 0.7 3.7 19.1 33.4 29.6 12.8 0.6
Ohio St. 8.1 0.1 1.5 6.6 23.6 34.2 19.3 14.1 0.6 0.0
UCLA 6.7 0.1 0.7 4.4 10.0 22.5 43.3 14.2 3.9 0.8 0.1
Indiana 9.0 0.0 1.1 9.3 20.7 29.8 35.2 3.4 0.5 0.0
Washington 12.0 0.1 3.5 32.6 32.9 25.2 4.7 0.8 0.1
USC 11.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 4.2 13.6 57.4 17.7 5.3 0.0
Minnesota 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.4 23.0 43.8 27.0 1.5 0.0
Northwestern 15.3 0.1 1.2 4.5 21.3 28.4 23.1 18.9 2.6
Oregon 15.9 0.3 2.3 14.3 21.4 22.6 34.2 5.0
Maryland 14.7 0.1 0.9 4.6 44.1 29.0 18.5 2.9 0.0
Rutgers 14.1 0.0 1.0 5.5 14.8 49.2 17.1 10.6 1.7 0.1
Penn St. 17.5 0.0 1.1 4.1 7.8 21.7 65.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.1 2.3 17.4 45.1 35.1
Illinois 15 - 5 24 - 7 0.2 6.2 52.2 41.4
Purdue 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.5 5.7 22.0 41.5 30.3
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 7 1.0 23.9 47.2 24.3 3.6
Nebraska 15 - 5 26 - 5 0.2 4.2 21.4 43.2 31.0
Wisconsin 13 - 7 21 - 10 1.1 14.1 39.5 37.7 7.6
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 4.9 27.3 43.4 20.9 3.5
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 3.9 21.0 39.5 28.1 7.6
UCLA 12 - 8 20 - 11 4.1 19.3 35.5 30.9 10.2
Indiana 10 - 10 19 - 12 2.5 16.5 38.9 32.3 9.8
Washington 7 - 13 15 - 16 3.2 17.2 34.2 32.9 12.5
USC 8 - 12 18 - 12 20.1 38.1 29.4 10.6 1.8
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 15.9 42.7 33.1 8.0 0.3
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 14.5 41.2 32.7 10.4 1.2
Oregon 4 - 16 11 - 20 27.8 42.5 24.2 5.3 0.2
Maryland 5 - 15 12 - 19 28.5 57.1 13.2 1.1 0.0
Rutgers 5 - 15 12 - 19 16.6 42.1 32.2 8.8 0.3
Penn St. 3 - 17 12 - 19 40.5 42.2 15.4 1.8

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 99.9% 97.6 0.9 1.1 0.3
Illinois 2.1% 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3
Purdue 0.8% 0.1 0.5 0.2
Michigan St. 0.4% 0.1 0.3 0.1
Nebraska 0.8% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3
Wisconsin
Iowa
Ohio St.
UCLA
Indiana
Washington
USC
Minnesota
Northwestern
Oregon
Maryland
Rutgers
Penn St.


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 1   89.6 10.3 0.1 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2   20.5 40.4 26.6 10.8 1.7 0.1 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 2   22.0 44.3 23.6 8.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4   3.0 11.8 24.0 29.7 21.5 8.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 3   7.4 25.5 33.2 22.7 9.0 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Wisconsin 97.2% 1.5% 95.7% 7   0.1 0.3 1.4 7.4 20.9 32.5 21.5 9.5 3.1 0.5 2.8 97.1%
Iowa 92.8% 0.9% 91.9% 8   0.1 0.3 2.2 8.3 17.9 22.6 21.4 14.2 5.8 0.1 7.2 92.7%
Ohio St. 65.3% 0.6% 64.7% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 7.3 10.9 16.4 24.3 1.4 34.7 65.1%
UCLA 85.6% 0.7% 84.9% 9   0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 5.3 12.5 20.4 21.1 16.5 8.4 0.1 14.4 85.5%
Indiana 65.8% 0.4% 65.5% 11   0.0 0.2 1.2 4.1 8.9 13.0 17.0 20.2 1.1 0.0 34.2 65.7%
Washington 3.7% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 96.3 3.6%
USC 23.2% 0.0% 23.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 5.7 12.3 1.0 0.0 76.8 23.2%
Minnesota 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.3%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.3 0.0 1.1 12.9 43.4 36.2 6.3 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 9.0 0.1 2.7 22.5 47.4 24.9 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.6 6.5 25.4 38.6 22.8 5.6 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.8 6.1 22.3 37.2 26.0 6.7 0.9 0.0
Elite Eight 97.5% 2.3 2.5 17.8 37.8 31.6 9.2 1.1 0.0
Final Four 84.4% 1.3 15.6 47.5 31.2 5.4 0.2
Final Game 60.9% 0.7 39.1 51.7 9.2
Champion 38.9% 0.4 61.1 38.9

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 88.6% 69.9% 52.0% 35.8% 23.8%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.9% 75.9% 47.9% 26.2% 13.9% 6.7%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.6% 72.4% 42.8% 21.5% 10.2% 4.6%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.2% 56.3% 24.9% 11.0% 4.7% 1.8%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.0% 59.6% 27.2% 11.2% 4.2% 1.7%
Wisconsin 97.2% 0.4% 97.0% 59.2% 17.8% 6.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
Iowa 92.8% 5.0% 90.7% 50.0% 12.9% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Ohio St. 65.3% 24.4% 55.7% 26.9% 7.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
UCLA 85.6% 7.5% 82.4% 40.4% 8.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana 65.8% 19.9% 57.4% 26.2% 5.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 3.7% 3.3% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 23.2% 13.0% 15.8% 5.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%