Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Purdue 99.7%   1   6 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 5 15 - 5 +19.4      +13.2 2 +6.2 38 67.4 233 +22.2 2 0.0 1
15 Michigan 84.4%   5   4 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14.9      +7.3 24 +7.7 18 66.3 249 +9.0 70 0.0 1
19 Iowa 83.9%   6   6 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 8 +14.4      +10.8 4 +3.6 75 78.0 27 +5.7 95 0.0 1
22 Michigan St. 88.4%   4   5 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +14.0      +4.9 56 +9.1 5 71.8 108 +16.5 13 0.0 1
29 Ohio St. 73.6%   7   4 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 12 - 8 +12.6      +9.3 9 +3.3 80 66.3 252 +11.4 52 0.0 1
30 Indiana 74.4%   8   6 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 9 +12.4      +4.5 59 +7.9 17 68.4 209 +12.2 43 0.0 1
31 Wisconsin 79.3%   7   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +12.2      +3.7 80 +8.5 9 63.0 321 +16.5 12 0.0 1
33 Illinois 57.1%   9   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +11.9      +6.4 29 +5.5 46 74.0 73 +5.5 100 0.0 1
44 Northwestern 41.6%   5 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.1      +5.6 40 +4.5 60 69.7 170 +6.2 92 0.0 1
51 Maryland 32.0%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 12 +8.7      +3.1 93 +5.6 45 68.9 194 +6.6 84 0.0 1
68 Penn St. 17.4%   4 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7.2      +3.5 83 +3.7 73 58.8 353 +5.2 106 0.0 1
82 Minnesota 19.4%   5 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 7 - 13 +6.4      +1.0 135 +5.3 49 73.1 88 +12.2 44 0.0 1
99 Rutgers 4.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.1      +0.6 155 +4.5 58 63.9 303 -4.5 240 0.0 1
108 Nebraska 3.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 14 +4.2      +2.0 113 +2.3 101 76.8 40 -1.1 198 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 2.3 48.7 19.2 11.6 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 4.6 14.9 15.2 13.4 11.7 10.8 9.3 7.9 6.1 4.2 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.5 0.2
Iowa 4.6 15.1 14.9 14.5 12.0 10.8 7.9 6.8 5.7 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.4
Michigan St. 4.8 12.8 15.2 13.3 12.4 11.3 8.2 7.6 5.6 5.1 3.1 3.0 1.4 1.0 0.2
Ohio St. 5.5 8.1 11.9 12.4 11.8 10.5 9.4 8.4 7.4 6.6 4.6 4.0 2.5 1.8 0.7
Indiana 5.8 7.2 10.2 11.1 11.8 11.0 9.6 9.0 7.8 7.1 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.8
Wisconsin 6.1 8.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 10.6 10.4 10.0 8.8 8.2 6.0 4.9 2.9 2.2 0.6
Illinois 6.7 4.6 7.2 8.6 8.5 10.2 10.3 9.5 9.4 9.1 7.8 6.5 4.4 2.7 1.4
Northwestern 7.5 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.5 8.8 9.5 11.3 10.2 10.1 9.0 7.1 5.6 4.8 2.7
Maryland 8.8 0.9 2.9 3.7 4.8 5.3 6.9 8.7 10.9 10.3 11.3 11.1 10.6 7.5 5.0
Penn St. 9.8 0.7 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.0 5.5 7.3 7.6 9.9 11.4 12.8 12.0 12.9 9.6
Minnesota 10.4 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.5 3.4 5.1 7.1 8.3 9.2 13.7 15.0 15.3 14.1
Rutgers 11.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 1.7 2.3 4.1 5.6 8.3 9.9 13.4 14.9 18.1 18.7
Nebraska 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.1 2.8 5.2 6.5 7.8 12.9 15.1 19.5 25.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 8.0 9.3 12.1 14.4 15.4 14.2 10.9 6.2 2.1
Michigan 12 - 8 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.3 4.3 6.7 9.6 12.2 12.4 13.0 12.8 10.3 6.6 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.1
Iowa 12 - 8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.6 4.0 7.7 8.0 11.0 13.5 12.2 12.4 11.2 7.3 4.8 1.9 0.8 0.1
Michigan St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.9 3.4 4.6 7.0 9.7 11.6 12.8 12.1 12.4 8.9 6.6 5.3 1.8 0.7 0.1
Ohio St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.4 8.6 11.2 12.1 12.3 12.6 9.2 7.7 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.2
Indiana 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.8 7.3 9.5 11.4 12.4 12.6 12.3 8.3 6.9 4.2 2.0 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.8 3.7 6.0 8.5 10.7 11.8 13.3 12.3 9.8 7.8 5.7 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.3
Illinois 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.3 5.5 7.7 9.9 11.3 11.8 12.7 11.4 8.7 6.4 4.5 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Northwestern 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.4 2.7 4.3 6.7 8.8 11.7 12.0 13.5 11.4 10.7 6.5 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
Maryland 8 - 12 0.3 1.4 2.8 5.3 7.5 10.1 11.6 13.9 11.9 11.9 8.7 5.1 4.6 3.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 7 - 13 0.1 0.9 2.7 4.7 9.3 10.2 11.9 13.3 12.1 11.0 8.0 7.0 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Minnesota 7 - 13 0.5 2.2 4.9 6.5 10.0 13.7 12.8 12.4 11.4 7.8 7.2 4.5 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1
Rutgers 6 - 14 0.7 2.8 5.2 9.1 11.8 14.5 13.6 12.0 11.8 7.3 5.1 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 6 - 14 0.8 3.6 7.7 11.4 13.5 15.6 13.6 11.5 8.7 6.3 3.5 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 48.7% 36.9 9.6 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Michigan 14.9% 9.0 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0
Iowa 15.1% 8.7 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.1
Michigan St. 12.8% 7.5 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.1
Ohio St. 8.1% 4.7 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0
Indiana 7.2% 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 8.0% 4.6 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 4.6% 2.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 2.9% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Maryland 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
Penn St. 0.7% 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 99.7% 37.1% 62.5% 1   43.6 24.3 13.1 7.8 5.1 2.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 99.5%
Michigan 84.4% 12.6% 71.8% 5   7.2 9.1 12.2 10.5 10.3 9.7 7.8 6.0 3.8 3.0 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 15.6 82.1%
Iowa 83.9% 10.4% 73.5% 6   5.1 7.2 8.6 9.6 11.0 8.7 9.6 8.3 6.6 4.4 3.6 1.1 0.0 16.1 82.0%
Michigan St. 88.4% 10.0% 78.4% 4   7.6 10.3 12.4 11.1 12.8 10.7 7.6 4.9 3.5 3.0 3.0 1.4 0.1 11.6 87.1%
Ohio St. 73.6% 6.4% 67.2% 7   2.1 3.6 6.7 7.4 9.0 9.2 10.3 8.1 6.0 4.7 4.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 26.4 71.8%
Indiana 74.4% 5.8% 68.6% 8   2.0 3.8 5.2 7.0 8.0 9.5 9.9 8.4 7.2 5.6 5.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 25.6 72.8%
Wisconsin 79.3% 6.2% 73.0% 7   2.8 4.8 6.9 7.9 10.2 11.6 9.6 8.4 5.7 4.5 4.2 2.5 0.2 0.1 20.7 77.9%
Illinois 57.1% 5.5% 51.5% 9   0.9 1.9 3.5 4.1 6.9 7.2 8.2 7.8 5.9 4.4 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.1 43.0 54.5%
Northwestern 41.6% 2.6% 39.0% 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.4 4.9 6.3 5.8 6.6 5.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 58.4 40.0%
Maryland 32.0% 1.4% 30.5% 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.4 4.6 4.7 4.1 3.7 5.1 2.5 0.2 68.0 31.0%
Penn St. 17.4% 0.9% 16.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.8 3.1 2.7 3.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 82.6 16.7%
Minnesota 19.4% 0.6% 18.8% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.6 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 80.6 18.9%
Rutgers 4.2% 0.3% 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 95.8 4.0%
Nebraska 3.9% 0.2% 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 96.1 3.7%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Purdue 99.7% 0.3% 99.6% 91.8% 68.5% 44.3% 26.1% 14.9% 8.7%
Michigan 84.4% 3.6% 82.7% 63.3% 34.7% 17.7% 8.2% 3.6% 1.5%
Iowa 83.9% 2.8% 82.7% 60.0% 31.7% 15.1% 7.8% 3.3% 1.2%
Michigan St. 88.4% 3.1% 87.0% 64.0% 35.0% 16.3% 7.1% 3.0% 1.0%
Ohio St. 73.6% 4.9% 71.2% 47.3% 21.5% 10.1% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6%
Indiana 74.4% 5.1% 71.9% 45.0% 20.1% 8.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5%
Wisconsin 79.3% 4.7% 77.0% 48.5% 21.4% 8.7% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7%
Illinois 57.1% 4.4% 55.0% 33.8% 15.2% 6.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Northwestern 41.6% 4.6% 39.1% 19.9% 6.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Maryland 32.0% 5.3% 29.5% 14.6% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Penn St. 17.4% 2.4% 16.1% 7.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Minnesota 19.4% 3.6% 17.5% 7.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Rutgers 4.2% 0.7% 3.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 3.9% 1.0% 3.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.6 0.2 1.7 12.9 31.8 34.1 16.4 2.8 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 7.4 0.3 3.2 16.5 35.2 31.1 11.8 1.8 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.2 1.6 8.3 21.5 32.2 24.7 9.5 1.9 0.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 98.2% 2.6 1.8 13.1 31.6 32.3 16.5 4.0 0.7 0.1
Elite Eight 82.7% 1.3 17.3 42.8 29.7 9.2 0.9 0.0
Final Four 55.2% 0.7 44.8 45.6 9.2 0.5
Final Game 28.9% 0.3 71.1 27.3 1.6
Champion 14.8% 0.1 85.3 14.8