Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   25 - 1 15 - 1 +26.9      +13.1 4 +13.8 1 78.3 13 +30.5 1 +28.6 1
5 Illinois 100.0%   2   22 - 5 13 - 3 +23.0      +15.2 1 +7.8 26 65.3 269 +21.3 10 +22.5 2
8 Purdue 100.0%   2   21 - 5 11 - 4 +20.9      +13.5 3 +7.4 27 64.0 305 +21.4 9 +20.2 4
11 Michigan St. 100.0%   4   21 - 5 11 - 4 +19.4      +8.2 34 +11.2 7 66.1 249 +19.9 13 +18.7 5
13 Nebraska 100.0%   3   22 - 4 11 - 4 +18.9      +7.4 46 +11.5 5 68.1 196 +22.6 8 +21.8 3
26 Iowa 95.5%   7   19 - 7 9 - 6 +15.6      +8.8 31 +6.8 31 60.7 353 +16.0 29 +15.3 7
29 Wisconsin 94.5%   8   18 - 8 10 - 5 +14.9      +10.0 19 +5.0 53 71.8 97 +15.7 30 +18.7 6
34 Ohio St. 65.6%   10   17 - 9 9 - 6 +14.4      +9.9 20 +4.5 59 67.7 207 +13.4 45 +15.2 8
36 Indiana 69.1%   10   17 - 9 8 - 7 +14.3      +8.9 29 +5.4 47 67.3 222 +13.9 42 +14.2 10
39 UCLA 67.6%   10   17 - 9 9 - 6 +13.4      +7.7 43 +5.6 44 63.6 316 +13.5 44 +15.2 9
44 Washington 9.2%   13 - 13 5 - 10 +11.6      +6.2 55 +5.4 48 68.1 193 +8.7 68 +9.3 12
53 USC 49.4%   17 - 8 7 - 8 +10.3      +4.1 79 +6.2 36 75.3 30 +14.4 37 +12.1 11
66 Minnesota 0.4%   12 - 14 5 - 10 +8.6      +3.5 95 +5.1 52 59.8 362 +6.2 88 +8.9 13
67 Northwestern 0.0%   11 - 16 3 - 13 +8.3      +5.1 69 +3.2 85 65.4 264 +5.5 91 +3.5 16
91 Oregon 0.0%   9 - 17 2 - 13 +6.1      +2.8 102 +3.3 80 65.5 263 +3.1 118 +0.5 18
107 Maryland 0.0%   10 - 16 3 - 12 +4.1      +2.3 110 +1.7 125 68.0 200 +5.5 93 +4.2 15
110 Rutgers 0.0%   11 - 15 4 - 11 +3.8      +2.3 111 +1.5 129 65.8 253 +4.5 99 +6.6 14
115 Penn St. 0.0%   11 - 16 2 - 14 +3.1      +4.2 78 -1.0 203 69.0 166 +2.9 119 +0.8 17


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 17 26 Iowa 57 13 Nebraska 52   
Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan 91 8 Purdue 80   
Tue, Feb 17 66 Minnesota 61 91 Oregon 44   
Tue, Feb 17 34 Ohio St. 86 29 Wisconsin 69   
Tue, Feb 17 11 Michigan St. 82 39 UCLA 59   
Wed, Feb 18 107 Maryland 74 67 Northwestern 78   
Wed, Feb 18 115 Penn St. 72 110 Rutgers 85   
Wed, Feb 18 5 Illinois 101 53 USC 65   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 20 36 Indiana 71 8 Purdue 80 82%   
Sat, Feb 21 2 Duke 75 1 Michigan 78 60%   
Sat, Feb 21 5 Illinois 77 39 UCLA 71 74%   
Sat, Feb 21 91 Oregon 71 53 USC 78 75%   
Sat, Feb 21 66 Minnesota 71 110 Rutgers 63 77%   
Sat, Feb 21 107 Maryland 72 44 Washington 77 67%   
Sat, Feb 21 13 Nebraska 84 115 Penn St. 65 95%   
Sun, Feb 22 26 Iowa 73 29 Wisconsin 76 59%   
Sun, Feb 22 11 Michigan St. 77 34 Ohio St. 69 78%   
Tue, Feb 24 53 USC 72 39 UCLA 78 72%   
Tue, Feb 24 36 Indiana 79 67 Northwestern 70 80%   
Tue, Feb 24 110 Rutgers 71 44 Washington 76 68%   
Tue, Feb 24 1 Michigan 83 66 Minnesota 62 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.0 98.3 1.6 0.1 0.0
Illinois 2.0 12.7 77.1 7.9 2.1 0.2 0.0
Purdue 3.4 0.3 22.2 35.6 24.4 11.8 4.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 4.5 0.1 4.8 16.3 24.6 38.7 11.7 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 3.2 0.3 26.0 40.6 26.0 5.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iowa 7.6 0.3 1.5 5.5 16.6 25.3 22.3 18.2 8.9 1.3 0.1
Wisconsin 5.6 0.6 5.0 12.3 27.3 34.6 12.8 5.2 1.9 0.3 0.0
Ohio St. 7.7 0.3 1.7 6.5 13.0 25.6 21.6 16.5 12.9 1.8 0.1
Indiana 8.7 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 14.4 19.9 24.1 27.3 6.5 0.8 0.1
UCLA 7.5 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.7 16.2 27.6 22.6 14.0 6.8 3.5 0.3
Washington 11.6 0.0 0.3 2.4 8.6 29.3 43.0 13.7 2.5 0.2 0.0
USC 10.5 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.3 9.9 19.0 43.2 16.6 1.8 0.0
Minnesota 12.6 0.0 0.1 1.6 7.1 30.7 49.9 9.2 1.4 0.1
Northwestern 15.0 0.0 0.7 5.7 24.2 41.1 18.3 8.5 1.4
Oregon 16.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 6.5 18.0 20.9 35.8 18.2
Maryland 15.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 20.9 32.3 33.7 9.1 1.4
Rutgers 13.8 0.0 0.9 8.6 20.9 53.6 11.9 3.7 0.4
Penn St. 17.1 0.0 2.5 7.0 14.2 35.0 41.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 29 - 2 0.1 2.4 17.0 45.5 35.0
Illinois 16 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 1.7 18.4 48.3 31.6
Purdue 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.2 1.9 9.4 26.2 38.1 24.2
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.3 6.7 30.0 40.1 19.9 2.9
Nebraska 15 - 5 26 - 5 0.0 0.5 5.8 23.3 42.2 28.2
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 2.7 16.9 35.2 31.4 12.1 1.6
Wisconsin 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.6 8.0 25.5 37.1 24.2 4.6
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 3.3 18.4 35.0 29.5 11.9 1.9
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 11 1.7 11.8 33.0 35.8 15.3 2.3
UCLA 11 - 9 19 - 12 3.4 16.1 31.3 30.8 15.3 3.2
Washington 8 - 12 16 - 15 1.2 7.7 21.6 32.7 27.0 9.8
USC 9 - 11 19 - 11 4.9 23.2 34.7 25.7 9.9 1.5
Minnesota 7 - 13 14 - 17 4.8 23.8 39.9 26.1 5.3 0.2
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 13.6 41.0 33.5 10.7 1.2
Oregon 3 - 17 10 - 21 22.3 38.2 27.9 10.0 1.5 0.1
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 21.7 45.9 26.7 5.2 0.4
Rutgers 6 - 14 13 - 18 12.4 34.6 34.3 15.5 3.0 0.2
Penn St. 3 - 17 12 - 19 40.2 41.4 16.0 2.4 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 98.3% 87.3 10.6 0.4 0.1
Illinois 12.7% 1.7 10.6 0.4 0.1
Purdue 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1
Michigan St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 0.3% 0.0 0.2 0.1
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio St.
Indiana
UCLA
Washington
USC
Minnesota
Northwestern
Oregon
Maryland
Rutgers
Penn St.


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1   92.1 7.9 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2   30.9 44.8 19.1 4.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 2   19.8 41.0 27.0 9.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 4   2.1 10.5 24.7 31.2 21.7 8.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 3   5.4 20.0 34.7 26.0 10.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 95.5% 1.1% 94.4% 7   0.0 0.5 1.9 7.2 16.8 23.6 20.7 14.6 7.8 2.4 0.0 4.5 95.5%
Wisconsin 94.5% 1.1% 93.4% 8   0.0 0.3 1.0 4.7 12.8 25.0 24.9 16.8 7.1 1.9 0.0 5.5 94.4%
Ohio St. 65.6% 0.7% 65.0% 10   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 5.4 9.0 12.3 15.8 19.3 0.6 34.4 65.4%
Indiana 69.1% 0.6% 68.6% 10   0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 6.2 11.7 14.7 16.1 16.6 0.4 30.9 69.0%
UCLA 67.6% 0.4% 67.3% 10   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.5 11.4 15.5 17.3 15.2 0.3 32.4 67.5%
Washington 9.2% 0.1% 9.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 6.8 0.5 90.8 9.1%
USC 49.4% 0.1% 49.4% 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.1 8.7 15.3 19.6 0.5 50.6 49.4%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 99.6 0.4%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.5 0.0 1.0 11.5 36.3 38.2 12.5 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.1 2.6 20.4 41.8 29.1 5.9 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.0 24.7 37.6 24.0 6.4 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.7 5.9 22.0 37.9 25.5 7.1 0.8 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 97.7% 2.3 2.3 17.4 38.5 31.2 9.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
Final Four 84.7% 1.3 15.3 47.2 31.6 5.7 0.2
Final Game 62.6% 0.7 37.4 53.0 9.7
Champion 41.4% 0.4 58.6 41.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 89.2% 71.5% 53.4% 37.4% 25.7%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.1% 78.5% 51.7% 29.5% 16.1% 8.1%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.1% 70.0% 40.1% 18.8% 8.7% 3.9%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.8% 56.5% 24.5% 10.8% 4.4% 1.8%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.9% 58.1% 25.5% 10.5% 4.3% 1.5%
Iowa 95.5% 2.1% 94.8% 58.0% 17.2% 6.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
Wisconsin 94.5% 1.7% 93.8% 53.9% 13.7% 4.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Ohio St. 65.6% 18.5% 58.3% 29.2% 7.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Indiana 69.1% 15.9% 62.6% 31.4% 7.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
UCLA 67.6% 14.2% 61.2% 28.4% 5.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 9.2% 7.1% 5.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 49.4% 18.9% 38.8% 12.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%