Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   24 - 1 14 - 1 +26.5      +12.5 4 +14.0 1 78.3 12 +29.0 1 +26.5 1
6 Illinois 100.0%   2   21 - 5 12 - 3 +21.8      +14.4 1 +7.4 27 65.2 274 +21.0 10 +22.0 3
8 Purdue 100.0%   2   21 - 4 11 - 3 +21.3      +13.2 2 +8.1 23 64.0 304 +22.2 8 +21.0 4
14 Nebraska 100.0%   3   22 - 3 11 - 3 +18.9      +8.2 36 +10.7 8 68.5 187 +23.9 6 +23.3 2
15 Michigan St. 100.0%   4   20 - 5 10 - 4 +18.8      +7.9 42 +10.9 7 66.0 253 +19.7 16 +18.2 6
26 Wisconsin 97.7%   7   18 - 7 10 - 4 +15.5      +10.3 18 +5.1 51 71.8 94 +16.3 28 +20.0 5
28 Iowa 89.4%   8   18 - 7 8 - 6 +15.2      +9.3 25 +5.9 39 61.0 351 +15.1 33 +14.1 10
34 Indiana 69.4%   10   17 - 9 8 - 7 +14.3      +8.9 30 +5.5 47 67.3 225 +14.0 37 +14.2 9
35 UCLA 77.0%   9   17 - 8 9 - 5 +13.9      +8.0 40 +5.9 40 63.5 317 +13.8 38 +15.7 7
38 Ohio St. 54.9%   11   16 - 9 8 - 6 +13.8      +9.7 20 +4.1 62 67.7 209 +12.9 46 +14.5 8
45 Washington 7.0%   13 - 13 5 - 10 +11.6      +6.2 56 +5.4 48 68.1 196 +8.7 64 +9.3 12
47 USC 64.2%   11   17 - 7 7 - 7 +11.2      +4.4 77 +6.8 33 74.9 33 +14.8 34 +12.4 11
66 Northwestern 0.0%   10 - 16 2 - 13 +8.3      +4.8 70 +3.4 79 65.5 264 +4.8 95 +2.0 17
74 Minnesota 0.1%   11 - 14 4 - 10 +7.7      +3.7 86 +4.0 67 59.8 362 +5.2 92 +7.9 13
81 Oregon 0.0%   9 - 16 2 - 12 +7.0      +4.1 81 +2.9 93 65.8 259 +3.8 105 +1.6 18
107 Maryland 0.0%   10 - 15 3 - 11 +3.9      +2.0 115 +1.9 115 68.1 198 +5.9 88 +4.8 15
109 Penn St. 0.0%   11 - 15 2 - 13 +3.7      +4.4 78 -0.6 194 68.9 168 +3.9 102 +2.8 16
115 Rutgers 0.0%   10 - 15 3 - 11 +3.1      +1.8 121 +1.4 132 65.8 257 +3.5 108 +5.3 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Feb 13 15 Michigan St. 71 26 Wisconsin 92   
Sat, Feb 14 38 Ohio St. 66 23 Virginia 70   
Sat, Feb 14 14 Nebraska 68 66 Northwestern 49   
Sat, Feb 14 1 Michigan 86 35 UCLA 56   
Sat, Feb 14 81 Oregon 83 109 Penn St. 72   
Sat, Feb 14 74 Minnesota 57 45 Washington 69   
Sat, Feb 14 28 Iowa 57 8 Purdue 78   
Sun, Feb 15 6 Illinois 71 34 Indiana 51   
Sun, Feb 15 107 Maryland 57 115 Rutgers 68   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan 79 8 Purdue 77 59%   
Tue, Feb 17 28 Iowa 69 14 Nebraska 70 53%   
Tue, Feb 17 38 Ohio St. 81 26 Wisconsin 80 55%   
Tue, Feb 17 15 Michigan St. 73 35 UCLA 66 77%   
Tue, Feb 17 74 Minnesota 67 81 Oregon 69 59%   
Wed, Feb 18 6 Illinois 81 47 USC 74 77%   
Wed, Feb 18 109 Penn St. 77 115 Rutgers 74 64%   
Wed, Feb 18 107 Maryland 69 66 Northwestern 77 76%   
Fri, Feb 20 34 Indiana 70 8 Purdue 80 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.1 93.6 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
Illinois 2.4 16.1 44.8 25.4 11.6 1.9 0.2 0.0
Purdue 3.0 9.6 31.0 25.9 20.7 8.1 4.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 2.8 7.2 39.6 26.9 19.6 4.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
Michigan St. 5.0 0.4 3.1 8.3 18.1 36.8 23.4 7.1 2.2 0.5 0.2
Wisconsin 5.1 0.1 4.0 8.4 16.7 32.6 26.7 7.7 2.9 0.8 0.2
Iowa 8.3 0.1 0.9 3.2 8.4 19.8 23.6 20.9 15.6 6.9 0.7
Indiana 8.5 0.2 1.6 5.2 17.9 24.1 25.5 18.2 6.7 0.6 0.0
UCLA 7.0 0.5 1.2 3.2 10.0 18.3 33.9 17.1 8.6 4.8 2.3 0.1
Ohio St. 8.3 0.2 0.7 3.9 8.8 19.2 22.6 19.4 16.5 8.0 1.0
Washington 11.6 0.0 0.7 3.1 10.3 22.7 53.1 8.4 1.4 0.2 0.0
USC 9.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 7.3 9.6 14.4 23.0 31.2 12.0 0.6
Northwestern 15.3 0.8 10.7 22.1 23.4 18.7 15.2 9.1
Minnesota 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 20.1 56.9 12.9 4.4 1.8 0.4 0.0
Oregon 15.6 0.1 1.4 8.0 17.4 19.4 19.7 19.0 15.0
Maryland 15.0 0.1 2.1 10.4 27.8 24.4 20.2 11.0 4.1
Penn St. 16.2 0.2 3.0 12.9 16.0 18.4 23.9 25.6
Rutgers 14.5 0.0 0.3 5.7 20.0 31.3 19.2 10.7 7.9 4.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.1 1.2 8.3 27.8 40.0 22.6
Illinois 16 - 4 25 - 6 0.0 0.9 8.2 27.1 43.0 20.7
Purdue 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.1 1.1 5.8 17.7 31.7 31.4 12.3
Nebraska 15 - 5 26 - 5 0.4 4.0 14.8 31.7 33.7 15.5
Michigan St. 14 - 6 24 - 7 0.1 2.3 13.2 32.5 34.9 15.0 2.0
Wisconsin 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.3 4.7 15.8 30.7 30.5 15.3 2.8
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 1.9 11.8 27.5 31.0 20.1 6.8 0.9
Indiana 11 - 9 20 - 11 1.2 10.9 32.5 35.8 17.1 2.6
UCLA 12 - 8 20 - 11 2.7 12.4 26.1 30.5 20.1 6.9 1.3
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 2.2 12.1 26.6 31.0 20.1 7.1 1.0
Washington 8 - 12 16 - 15 1.3 8.6 21.7 34.1 25.8 8.5
USC 10 - 10 20 - 10 3.9 17.0 30.4 28.1 15.2 4.7 0.7
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 4.4 20.3 37.6 28.1 8.7 1.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 13 - 18 3.8 18.5 34.1 30.1 11.5 2.0 0.1
Oregon 4 - 16 11 - 20 8.9 26.6 33.4 21.9 7.8 1.3 0.1
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 15.7 39.5 31.5 11.2 2.0 0.2
Penn St. 4 - 16 13 - 18 13.6 36.1 33.5 14.3 2.3 0.2
Rutgers 5 - 15 12 - 19 10.8 28.2 32.4 20.4 6.9 1.3 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 93.6% 75.0 13.4 4.3 0.9 0.0
Illinois 16.1% 2.7 8.7 3.8 0.9 0.0
Purdue 9.6% 1.1 4.6 3.0 0.8 0.0
Nebraska 7.2% 0.6 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.0
Michigan St. 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa
Indiana
UCLA
Ohio St.
Washington
USC
Northwestern
Minnesota
Oregon
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 49.4% 50.6% 1   88.5 11.5 0.1 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2   19.0 36.8 30.1 11.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 2   24.3 43.2 24.2 6.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 3   7.0 23.4 34.6 23.7 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 4   1.1 5.6 17.3 28.3 26.8 15.3 4.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Wisconsin 97.7% 1.7% 96.0% 7   0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 7.7 17.4 27.6 22.6 12.9 4.9 1.6 2.3 97.7%
Iowa 89.4% 1.0% 88.4% 8   0.0 0.3 0.8 3.3 9.2 16.3 19.5 18.1 13.9 8.0 0.1 10.6 89.3%
Indiana 69.4% 0.7% 68.7% 10   0.0 0.2 0.6 2.6 6.3 11.6 14.7 17.5 15.7 0.2 30.6 69.2%
UCLA 77.0% 0.9% 76.2% 9   0.1 0.2 0.9 3.2 9.0 15.6 18.1 16.9 12.9 0.2 23.0 76.8%
Ohio St. 54.9% 0.6% 54.3% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.7 7.0 10.4 13.7 17.9 0.4 45.1 54.6%
Washington 7.0% 0.1% 6.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 5.2 0.4 93.0 6.9%
USC 64.2% 0.1% 64.0% 11   0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 8.5 14.8 18.6 18.0 0.3 35.8 64.1%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.6 0.0 0.7 9.4 34.1 41.5 13.6 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 9.3 0.1 2.0 17.3 41.0 32.4 7.0 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.7 6.7 22.7 37.9 24.3 6.9 0.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 3.9 0.0 1.1 7.3 25.1 36.0 23.7 5.9 0.8 0.1
Elite Eight 96.9% 2.2 3.1 20.4 39.6 28.2 7.8 0.8 0.0
Final Four 81.8% 1.2 18.2 48.9 28.4 4.4 0.1
Final Game 58.6% 0.7 41.4 50.5 8.1
Champion 37.6% 0.4 62.4 37.6

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 87.8% 68.4% 50.3% 35.7% 24.3%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.1% 72.8% 43.3% 23.0% 11.9% 5.8%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.6% 71.6% 42.3% 21.4% 9.9% 4.3%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.1% 57.6% 26.1% 10.7% 4.4% 1.6%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.0% 50.1% 21.0% 8.9% 3.4% 1.2%
Wisconsin 97.7% 1.4% 97.2% 60.0% 18.0% 6.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2%
Iowa 89.4% 7.7% 86.4% 49.4% 12.7% 4.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Indiana 69.4% 14.9% 62.9% 31.6% 7.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
UCLA 77.0% 12.3% 71.7% 35.1% 7.9% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Ohio St. 54.9% 17.4% 47.8% 22.4% 5.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Washington 7.0% 5.4% 4.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 64.2% 17.1% 54.9% 20.8% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%