Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   16 - 1 6 - 1 +25.1      +12.0 4 +13.1 2 80.2 9 +25.3 7 +18.6 6
5 Purdue 100.0%   1   17 - 1 7 - 0 +21.6      +13.5 1 +8.1 20 64.6 290 +26.6 5 +26.5 2
8 Illinois 100.0%   2   15 - 3 6 - 1 +20.4      +12.5 3 +7.9 21 67.6 222 +20.3 14 +22.8 3
11 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   16 - 2 6 - 1 +19.7      +6.5 52 +13.2 1 67.1 235 +22.1 10 +22.5 4
15 Nebraska 100.0%   2   18 - 0 7 - 0 +18.2      +9.1 22 +9.0 14 68.6 196 +30.8 2 +31.9 1
21 Iowa 93.6%   7   13 - 5 3 - 4 +17.1      +8.7 26 +8.4 17 61.9 347 +14.9 30 +13.1 9
29 Ohio St. 74.3%   9   12 - 5 4 - 3 +14.3      +9.5 19 +4.8 58 67.9 218 +12.4 46 +13.8 8
35 Indiana 41.7%   11   12 - 6 3 - 4 +13.5      +8.4 31 +5.1 53 69.4 169 +10.6 55 +9.4 13
39 UCLA 54.8%   11   12 - 6 4 - 3 +13.1      +7.4 45 +5.7 44 64.0 311 +11.4 50 +13.8 7
41 Wisconsin 73.8%   8   13 - 5 5 - 2 +12.8      +8.0 36 +4.8 57 73.8 62 +14.8 31 +20.9 5
45 USC 62.1%   10   13 - 4 3 - 4 +11.6      +5.1 69 +6.4 35 74.2 60 +15.8 27 +12.0 11
51 Washington 22.7%   10 - 8 2 - 5 +10.9      +6.5 54 +4.5 63 68.8 185 +9.0 70 +10.8 12
64 Oregon 1.1%   8 - 10 1 - 6 +8.4      +4.9 70 +3.5 82 67.5 226 +4.6 97 +1.8 15
67 Northwestern 0.6%   8 - 10 0 - 7 +8.3      +5.9 56 +2.4 103 65.0 280 +3.5 110 -4.8 18
70 Minnesota 4.6%   10 - 8 3 - 4 +8.0      +3.8 86 +4.2 73 60.3 361 +6.7 82 +12.2 10
100 Maryland 0.0%   8 - 10 1 - 6 +5.2      +1.9 122 +3.3 87 69.8 158 +4.1 102 +0.3 16
109 Penn St. 0.0%   9 - 9 0 - 7 +4.0      +4.2 81 -0.2 174 68.6 193 +2.7 122 -1.1 17
122 Rutgers 0.0%   9 - 9 2 - 5 +2.5      +1.2 135 +1.3 118 66.2 260 +4.1 104 +8.2 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 17 5 Purdue 69 45 USC 64   
Sat, Jan 17 8 Illinois 77 70 Minnesota 67   
Sat, Jan 17 1 Michigan 81 64 Oregon 71   
Sat, Jan 17 11 Michigan St. 80 51 Washington 63   
Sat, Jan 17 15 Nebraska 77 67 Northwestern 58   
Sat, Jan 17 35 Indiana 57 21 Iowa 74   
Sat, Jan 17 29 Ohio St. 86 39 UCLA 74   
Sat, Jan 17 122 Rutgers 87 41 Wisconsin 96   
Sun, Jan 18 100 Maryland 96 109 Penn St. 73   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Jan 20 5 Purdue 75 39 UCLA 70 70%   
Tue, Jan 20 35 Indiana 74 1 Michigan 88 91%   
Tue, Jan 20 70 Minnesota 66 29 Ohio St. 75 81%   
Tue, Jan 20 11 Michigan St. 74 64 Oregon 66 79%   
Tue, Jan 20 21 Iowa 78 122 Rutgers 60 94%   
Wed, Jan 21 15 Nebraska 80 51 Washington 70 83%   
Wed, Jan 21 67 Northwestern 73 45 USC 79 73%   
Wed, Jan 21 8 Illinois 84 100 Maryland 66 94%   
Thu, Jan 22 109 Penn St. 77 41 Wisconsin 83 71%   
Fri, Jan 23 1 Michigan 88 29 Ohio St. 74 90%   
Fri, Jan 23 35 Indiana 78 122 Rutgers 70 78%   
Sat, Jan 24 8 Illinois 74 5 Purdue 78 66%   
Sat, Jan 24 67 Northwestern 68 39 UCLA 76 77%   
Sat, Jan 24 70 Minnesota 65 15 Nebraska 72 75%   
Sat, Jan 24 100 Maryland 61 11 Michigan St. 78 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 2.3 38.2 26.8 16.2 10.2 6.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Purdue 2.3 40.3 22.3 16.7 10.8 6.3 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 3.2 18.0 19.9 20.9 19.1 14.8 4.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 3.6 12.5 16.7 19.1 21.3 18.8 7.1 2.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 2.8 25.4 22.5 20.5 16.1 10.2 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Iowa 7.1 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.9 11.2 22.6 19.4 14.2 9.9 6.2 3.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 7.9 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 7.4 16.6 18.2 16.5 13.2 10.4 6.5 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.1
Indiana 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 4.6 8.5 11.3 14.2 16.5 15.9 12.4 8.9 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
UCLA 8.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 6.3 13.1 17.7 17.5 14.0 10.8 7.2 5.3 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Wisconsin 7.3 0.3 0.9 2.0 5.0 11.1 20.0 18.0 14.7 11.2 7.8 4.6 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
USC 9.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.6 6.9 10.2 12.4 13.7 14.4 13.6 12.1 8.1 3.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Washington 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.6 6.2 8.7 11.9 15.0 15.7 14.6 11.9 6.2 3.0 1.2 0.6 0.2
Oregon 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.2 9.4 14.5 21.0 18.5 13.0 7.9 3.8
Northwestern 15.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.5 7.3 14.5 19.1 20.2 18.3 14.2
Minnesota 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.1 4.9 8.1 11.7 14.4 18.3 19.4 10.3 4.9 2.0 0.7 0.1
Maryland 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.0 6.3 13.7 18.4 20.5 22.1 14.0
Penn St. 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.7 8.7 13.5 17.3 23.1 31.0
Rutgers 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.3 5.3 10.2 19.8 22.5 17.2 13.0 7.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 16 - 4 27 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 8.2 15.2 24.8 24.8 16.4 6.3
Purdue 16 - 4 26 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.6 8.6 16.4 20.7 20.9 16.6 8.0 2.0
Illinois 15 - 5 24 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.9 9.2 16.3 23.6 22.1 15.1 6.8 1.4
Michigan St. 15 - 5 25 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.1 12.6 19.9 23.4 19.2 11.1 4.2 0.7
Nebraska 16 - 4 27 - 4 0.3 0.8 2.6 7.4 13.7 20.2 22.1 18.2 10.7 3.5 0.5
Iowa 11 - 9 21 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.6 8.7 14.6 20.8 20.4 16.3 9.4 3.6 0.6
Ohio St. 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 6.6 13.2 19.7 21.3 18.5 10.8 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
Indiana 9 - 11 18 - 13 0.3 1.6 5.7 10.9 18.1 22.9 19.3 12.0 6.1 2.4 0.6 0.1
UCLA 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.4 15.0 20.2 20.5 15.9 9.7 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Wisconsin 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.4 5.0 9.9 16.6 20.4 19.4 14.6 7.8 3.5 0.9 0.3 0.0
USC 9 - 11 19 - 11 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.6 11.0 16.0 20.1 18.8 13.9 8.4 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 17 - 14 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.9 8.6 14.7 19.1 20.3 16.3 9.5 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.1
Oregon 6 - 14 13 - 18 0.5 2.8 8.6 16.5 20.1 19.8 15.5 9.2 4.6 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern 4 - 16 12 - 19 0.6 3.3 9.8 18.8 23.1 20.2 13.6 6.8 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Minnesota 8 - 12 15 - 16 0.2 1.9 6.9 14.1 20.8 21.6 17.0 10.3 4.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Maryland 4 - 16 11 - 20 2.6 11.1 21.0 24.7 20.1 11.8 5.7 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Penn St. 3 - 17 12 - 19 2.2 9.2 17.9 23.2 21.2 14.2 7.8 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 5 - 15 12 - 19 4.1 14.0 23.1 24.1 18.2 10.1 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 38.2% 21.4 12.3 3.8 0.7 0.1
Purdue 40.3% 24.6 11.3 3.7 0.7 0.1
Illinois 18.0% 8.4 6.2 2.6 0.7 0.1
Michigan St. 12.5% 5.1 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.1
Nebraska 25.4% 12.5 8.9 3.2 0.7 0.1
Iowa 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Indiana
UCLA 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
USC
Washington
Oregon
Northwestern
Minnesota
Maryland
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1   66.3 27.2 5.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1   45.8 34.8 13.8 4.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2   12.3 22.2 26.8 21.6 10.9 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Michigan St. 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 3   10.7 20.3 27.3 22.8 12.4 4.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nebraska 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 2   14.9 28.4 31.0 17.7 6.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 93.6% 3.4% 90.2% 7   0.5 1.3 3.7 8.5 14.0 18.1 17.0 13.1 8.2 5.9 3.4 0.1 6.4 93.4%
Ohio St. 74.3% 1.3% 73.0% 9   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.7 7.7 12.3 14.6 13.2 11.0 9.5 0.3 0.0 25.7 73.9%
Indiana 41.7% 0.7% 41.1% 11   0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.7 6.8 7.9 8.8 9.9 0.2 58.3 41.3%
UCLA 54.8% 0.7% 54.1% 11   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.3 6.6 10.1 11.4 11.6 10.1 0.2 45.2 54.5%
Wisconsin 73.8% 0.7% 73.1% 8   0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 8.0 12.9 15.1 13.6 11.0 8.4 0.2 26.2 73.6%
USC 62.1% 0.4% 61.7% 10   0.1 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.4 8.1 11.5 12.9 12.0 10.9 0.2 37.9 62.0%
Washington 22.7% 0.2% 22.5% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.3 6.3 7.6 0.2 77.3 22.6%
Oregon 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 98.9 1.1%
Northwestern 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 99.4 0.6%
Minnesota 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.0 0.0 95.5 4.6%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.3 0.1 2.6 17.6 38.4 31.1 9.4 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.0 0.3 5.3 25.1 40.1 24.0 5.0 0.3
2nd Round 100.0% 7.0 0.0 0.6 6.1 23.6 37.2 24.2 7.3 0.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.2 0.0 0.7 5.8 20.3 34.7 27.8 9.5 1.2 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 97.5% 2.3 2.5 17.7 36.9 31.0 10.5 1.2 0.1
Final Four 83.4% 1.3 16.6 45.1 31.7 6.2 0.4
Final Game 60.4% 0.7 39.6 50.5 9.9
Champion 39.0% 0.4 61.0 39.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.6% 84.7% 63.6% 45.2% 30.2% 19.5%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.6% 74.9% 46.7% 26.7% 14.7% 8.1%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 94.5% 64.8% 35.1% 18.3% 9.2% 4.4%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.1% 61.7% 32.3% 16.2% 7.7% 3.7%
Nebraska 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.3% 58.8% 27.5% 11.9% 5.0% 2.0%
Iowa 93.6% 3.6% 92.3% 67.0% 29.9% 13.1% 5.6% 2.1% 0.8%
Ohio St. 74.3% 10.1% 69.7% 40.2% 12.4% 4.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
Indiana 41.7% 10.6% 37.5% 20.2% 6.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
UCLA 54.8% 10.7% 50.1% 25.6% 6.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Wisconsin 73.8% 8.9% 69.3% 35.1% 8.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
USC 62.1% 11.3% 55.9% 25.8% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Washington 22.7% 8.0% 18.9% 8.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 4.6% 2.1% 3.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%