Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.4 88
Expected Predictive Rating +7.3 81
Pace 69.3 161
Improvement -2.9 299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 125 C+ C+ C A+ B
Defense B 55 C+ C+ A C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 35 B 64% 65 +5.9 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 283 F 27% 364 -4.0 346
Three Pointers 41% 170 C- 33% 217 -0.3 191
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 36 C +0.3 161
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 122
Second Chance C- 28.5% 234 B+ 1.17 37 C+ 0.33 127
Turnovers C 17.1% 197
Freethrows A+ 0.41 2 B 76% 66 A+ 0.31 1
Total Offense C+ +1.7 125

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 51 B- 9.6% 102
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 12% 345 F 12.2% 363
Three Pointers C+ 85% 164 B- 0.5% 77
Total B 62% 63 C- 6.2% 241

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 263 B 53% 66 -3.2 78
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 62 C+ 37% 129 +1.3 290
Three Pointers 40% 231 D 36% 288 +0.8 227
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.7 69 C -0.5 163
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 134
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 113 C+ 0.99 123 C+ 0.29 103
Turnovers A 22.0% 9
Freethrows C 0.30 188 B- 71% 96 C+ 0.21 164
Total Defense B +4.7 55

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 109 B 15.6% 44
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 104 C+ 6.2% 94
Three Pointers A- 76% 17 A 2.7% 13
Total B 50% 73 B+ 8.2% 32

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 132 17.4 208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 80 0.16 135
Improvement -1.4 #257 -1.6 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 104 87 68
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 8 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 1% 0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 96% 100% 85%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 25 - 25 - 8
Quad 37 - 412 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 343 Canisius W 88 - 48 97% +21  99% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +17 B- A+ A+ A+ +12 B D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 232 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 89% +4  79% 2 - 0 C -1 C+ +3 C+ B+ C- D+ -3 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 46 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 22% -9  0% 2 - 1 C+ +2 F -10 F D- A- A+ +14 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 241 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 90% +6  78% 3 - 1 C +2 A+ +16 A+ B F+ F -14 C- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 87 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 38% +5  83% 4 - 1 A- +15 D+ -3 A C F A+ +18 A- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 350 NC Central W 74 - 55 97% +19  88% 5 - 1 C+ +3 D -5 F+ D+ A+ A +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 74 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 44% +7  87% 6 - 1 B+ +13 B- +5 C+ B- C- A- +7 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 21 BYU L 79 - 83 15% +0  53% 6 - 2 B+ +13 B- +4 A C- D+ A +9 C A A+
 Tue, Dec 2 131 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 77% +10  79% 7 - 2 A- +16 B+ +7 A+ C D+ A- +7 D+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 22 Virginia L 73 - 86 15% -6  23% 7 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 B D- A C+ +2 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 339 North Florida W 84 - 61 97% +21  90% 8 - 3 B +8 C- -2 B+ F C- A +11 A+ D B+
 Tue, Dec 16 86 Florida St. W 97 - 69 60% +13  98% 9 - 3 A+ +32 A +13 B- C A A+ +16 A- A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 100 Liberty L 61 - 64 66% +2  54% 9 - 4 C -1 D -6 F+ D+ B- B +5 C+ B+ D-
 Wed, Dec 31 158 Fordham W 63 - 56 81% +5  98% 10 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +4 D+ -3 F A+ B+ A- +8 B- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 277 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 83% -6  8% 11 - 4 2 - 0 C- -2 D+ -4 F C- A B- +2 D- C B+
 Tue, Jan 6 80 George Washington W 79 - 72 59% -1  42% 12 - 4 3 - 0 B +11 C+ +3 F+ A+ B- A- +8 C- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 110 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 48% +5  87% 13 - 4 4 - 0 B+ +13 B- +5 B F+ B A- +8 B+ A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 16 277 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 93% +6  66% 14 - 4 5 - 0 A- +17 C -0 B- F D- A+ +18 A+ B A+
 Wed, Jan 21 212 @La Salle L 64 - 67 73% -9  1% 14 - 5 5 - 1 C- -3 D+ -4 F+ B D- C+ +1 C- C A
 Sat, Jan 24 130 @Saint Joseph's L 74 - 81 56% -3  38% 14 - 6 5 - 2 C- -2 C -0 C- B F C- -2 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 113 Rhode Island L 76 - 81 OT 72% +3  62% 14 - 7 5 - 3 C- -5 D+ -3 A+ D- F C- -2 C+ A- C+
 Fri, Jan 30 23 @Saint Louis L 71 - 102 12% -18  0% 14 - 8 5 - 4 D- -12 C+ +3 A- C+ F F -13 F F B-
 Tue, Feb 3 143 St. Bonaventure W 72 - 70 79% +3  68% 15 - 8 6 - 4 C +0 C +0 D C B- C -0 C- C+ B+
 Fri, Feb 6 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 73 - 99 22% -17  3% 15 - 9 6 - 5 D- -12 D- -8 F+ B- D C +0 B+ D- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 112 Davidson W 70 - 59 72% +5  85% 16 - 9 7 - 5 B+ +11 B +6 C A+ F A- +7 B+ B+ C
 Wed, Feb 18 105 @George Mason W 82 - 67 46% +8  99% 17 - 9 8 - 5 A +22 A+ +20 A+ A- B+ B +5 B- A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 21 110 Duquesne W 79 - 73 70%
 Tue, Feb 24 23 Saint Louis L 74 - 81 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 80 @George Washington L 76 - 80 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 129 @Richmond W 74 - 73 55%
 Fri, Mar 6 48 Virginia Commonwealth L 76 - 78 43%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +6 C+ +2 B- C B B +5 C- B A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B F C- C 44% 29% 41% B C+ C- B+ C+ C A+ B A+ B B C+ D C 36% 25% 40% B- C+ C+ C+ C+ A C B- C+
1.11 64% 27% 33% 0 +1 1.05 29% 1.2 .33 17% .41 76% .31 1.02 53% 37% 36% -1 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 71% .29
Nov
3		 Canisius A+ A+ F F C+ 48% 11% 41% B+ B- B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ B- B+ 36% 26% 38% C+ B F+ C- D- A+ B- A+ A+
1.39 95% 20% 17% +5 +2 1.16 35% 1.4 .48 6% .69 68% .47 0.76 27% 45% 31% -11 -1 0.79 33% 0.9 .30 30% .25 45% .11
Nov
8		 Maryland Baltimore Co. C+ A+ C- F+ B- 39% 24% 37% D+ C+ D- A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ C F+ D+ 28% 26% 46% B+ C- F D F A+ A D- B+
1.17 78% 36% 29% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.7 .38 14% .42 79% .33 1.07 50% 38% 39% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 23% .20 80% .16
Nov
11		 Cincinnati F C+ D- F F 53% 5% 42% A+ F F B- D- A- A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ F D- 45% 10% 45% F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
0.76 53% 33% 4% -22 +3 0.65 14% 1.2 .16 16% .40 74% .29 0.91 53% 25% 47% +5 +2 1.17 18% 0.7 .12 30% .65 62% .40
Nov
15		 Bethune-Cookman A+ D A+ A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% C+ A+ A- D+ B F+ A+ A+ A+ F D D+ B- D 36% 34% 30% A C- F F F D- A- A A
1.33 50% 60% 61% +17 +1 1.39 39% 1.1 .43 19% .57 81% .47 1.19 63% 39% 31% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 15% .26 60% .15
Nov
19		 Marquette D+ C- A+ A A- 56% 7% 38% A+ A F A+ C F A+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B B+ 33% 18% 49% A+ A- C A B+ A+ B F+ C+
0.96 56% 67% 41% +5 +3 1.18 19% 1.6 .31 31% .47 69% .32 0.88 44% 50% 30% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .24 25% .26 75% .20
Nov
22		 NC Central D A- D+ F F+ 31% 15% 54% C- F+ D C+ D+ A+ C+ F D- A C+ A+ A A+ 38% 38% 24% A A+ C+ F F A+ B F C
1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19 0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23
Nov
27		 Georgetown B- F F A+ C 33% 16% 51% B+ C+ C+ B B- C- A+ B+ A+ A- C- C+ F D 36% 24% 40% C+ D A A+ A+ B+ C+ A B
1.11 41% 25% 42% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 17% .51 78% .40 1.05 60% 38% 41% +5 -1 1.11 26% 0.8 .21 17% .34 67% .22
Nov
28		 BYU B- C+ F A+ A 30% 16% 54% A A D B+ C- D+ C F F A B- C F C 38% 23% 40% C- C A+ F A A+ B- F C
1.06 59% 22% 42% +4 0 1.11 21% 1.3 .26 19% .23 43% .10 1.11 60% 42% 43% +7 0 1.15 17% 1.8 .31 20% .30 83% .25
Dec
2		 East Tennessee St. B+ A+ A- D+ A+ 42% 16% 42% C+ A+ B- D+ C D+ A+ B+ A+ A- C- C- D D 37% 24% 39% B+ D+ F A C- A+ B- D C+
1.19 89% 43% 32% +12 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48 0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23
Dec
6		 Virginia C+ C+ F B+ B 43% 23% 34% B+ B D F D- A B+ C B+ C+ C- F+ F F 38% 19% 43% B F A+ F C A+ F D+ F
0.99 54% 23% 37% -4 0 0.95 20% 0.7 .14 12% .34 73% .25 1.17 63% 50% 56% +18 0 1.38 27% 1.7 .45 29% .51 74% .38
Dec
13		 North Florida C- A+ A+ F B 45% 9% 45% B B+ C+ F F C- C F F A A A A+ A+ 35% 20% 45% B A+ F B+ D B+ D- A+ D+
1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13 0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20
Dec
16		 Florida St. A A+ F D C+ 40% 13% 48% A- B- F+ A+ C A A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D A- 35% 19% 46% B+ A- C A+ A A+ F B- F
1.24 74% 17% 30% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 15% .71 85% .61 0.88 47% 22% 36% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.8 .26 26% .46 70% .33
Dec
20		 Liberty D F B- D+ F 27% 16% 57% C F+ C D D+ B- A- A- A B C- A+ F B- 55% 12% 33% C+ C+ B+ A+ B+ D- A A+ A+
1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24 1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07
Dec
31		 Fordham D+ A+ F F F 46% 27% 27% B- F C- A+ A+ B+ A- B- A- A- F A+ A C+ 23% 19% 57% B B- D A+ A- A+ A- A A-
1.01 73% 0% 8% -14 0 0.73 24% 2.4 .58 13% .33 72% .24 0.89 82% 22% 26% -4 -1 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 24% .17 63% .10
Jan
3		 Loyola Chicago D+ D F F F 49% 10% 41% A F F+ A+ C- A A+ A- A+ B- B+ F C- D- 41% 12% 47% C D- F A+ C B+ A+ A A+
1.04 50% 20% 25% -11 +2 0.84 21% 1.4 .29 9% .41 84% .34 1.01 50% 83% 35% +3 +1 1.10 43% 0.7 .30 22% .10 60% .06
Jan
6		 George Washington C+ A+ F F F+ 36% 26% 38% D+ F+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ D+ D- 24% 24% 52% A+ C- F A- C- A+ F A+ D+
1.14 76% 0% 28% -7 -1 0.87 34% 1.4 .47 16% .51 90% .46 1.04 90% 30% 36% +8 -1 1.14 45% 0.9 .42 32% .42 60% .25
Jan
13		 Duquesne B- C- F A+ B- 45% 15% 40% A- B F+ F+ F+ B A+ A+ A+ A- B- D+ B B+ 39% 11% 50% C+ B+ A- A+ A+ C+ F+ C- D-
1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42 1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31
Jan
16		 Loyola Chicago C C+ F A+ B- 37% 18% 45% B- B- F+ F F D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 20% 36% B A+ F+ A+ B A+ C- A+ B-
1.14 58% 22% 43% +4 0 1.10 21% 0.7 .15 16% .49 79% .38 0.75 42% 22% 25% -15 0 0.73 37% 0.6 .23 28% .32 56% .18
Jan
21		 La Salle D+ A+ C- F F+ 43% 19% 38% C+ F+ B+ C- B D- A B A+ C+ A F B C 39% 12% 49% F C- C+ D+ C A F A F
0.99 72% 38% 13% -6 +1 0.90 36% 1.1 .39 20% .35 72% .25 1.04 44% 80% 30% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 23% .57 64% .36
Jan
24		 Saint Joseph's C F C+ A- D 53% 15% 33% A+ C- D+ A+ B F B- F C C- C D B- C- 33% 10% 57% C- C- B+ D C+ D+ F F+ F
0.99 41% 38% 39% -6 +2 0.93 28% 1.4 .38 20% .25 60% .15 1.08 59% 40% 31% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 16% .41 81% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Rhode Island D+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 44% 18% 38% C+ A+ D+ F+ D- F A+ B+ A+ C- A+ C- F C 43% 26% 30% B+ C+ B- A+ A- C+ F D- F
1.01 71% 29% 47% +11 +1 1.26 27% 0.9 .23 31% .64 76% .48 1.08 40% 42% 50% 0 0 1.02 30% 0.7 .21 20% .60 78% .47
Jan
30		 Saint Louis C+ C- A+ C+ A- 47% 18% 35% B+ A- D A+ C+ F D A+ C+ F B F F F 43% 4% 53% C F A F F B- F A D
0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24 1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +2 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25
Feb
3		 St. Bonaventure C A F D D 40% 16% 44% B- D D+ B- C B- A+ A A+ C F F+ A+ D+ 32% 30% 38% B+ C- C- B- C+ B+ F+ F+ F
1.13 71% 0% 32% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .61 85% .52 1.10 87% 50% 22% +6 -2 1.11 37% 0.9 .33 20% .33 82% .28
Feb
6		 Virginia Commonwealth D- F F B- F 56% 13% 31% A F+ C- A- B- D A+ F A- C A F A A 51% 12% 37% D B+ A- F D- C- F F F
0.88 35% 29% 35% -13 +2 0.80 28% 1.2 .33 19% .45 60% .27 1.20 48% 71% 29% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.6 .46 15% .54 82% .44
Feb
15		 Davidson B C F D+ D+ 49% 18% 33% A C A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A- B B- C B+ 31% 27% 42% B+ B+ A+ F B+ C A- B A-
1.15 58% 29% 31% -3 +1 0.97 52% 1.1 .59 26% .54 88% .47 0.97 53% 38% 35% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.6 .27 16% .22 64% .14
Feb
18		 George Mason A+ A D- A+ A+ 43% 15% 41% A- A+ C- A+ A- B+ A+ F A- B A A- F C+ 34% 36% 30% A+ B- A+ C A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.31 70% 29% 53% +15 +1 1.35 25% 1.4 .36 13% .38 62% .24 1.07 50% 29% 50% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 14% .41 82% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.7 2nd
3rd 1.4 15.3 11.2 1.6 29.4 3rd
4th 0.0 10.2 11.4 0.6 22.3 4th
5th 1.0 15.3 1.4 17.7 5th
6th 0.0 5.1 6.2 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.3 7.8 0.6 8.7 7th
8th 1.6 5.0 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 2.2 0.8 3.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 4.4 19.8 33.6 28.0 12.1 2.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.1% 16.9% 9.5% 7.4% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 8.2%
12-6 12.1% 9.9% 7.8% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 1.0 0.2 10.9 2.4%
11-7 28.0% 5.9% 5.6% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 26.4 0.4%
10-8 33.6% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 11.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 32.5 0.1%
9-9 19.8% 1.8% 1.8% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 19.4
8-10 4.4% 1.2% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 4.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.8% 4.2% 0.6% 11.4 95.2 0.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.9 18.3 73.3 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 18.8% 11.0 0.8 17.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 7.1% 11.2 6.0 1.1
Lose Out 1.9%