Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#68
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#83
Pace69.3#190
Improvement+3.0#34

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#103
First Shot+4.5#69
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#282
Layup/Dunks+2.9#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
Freethrows+3.7#15
Improvement+0.0#174

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#47
First Shot+5.0#43
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks+4.3#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#175
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement+3.0#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 14.2% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 3.6% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.2
.500 or above 98.3% 98.7% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 90.7% 72.8%
Conference Champion 11.3% 12.2% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four2.0% 2.1% 1.0%
First Round12.5% 13.1% 7.6%
Second Round3.6% 3.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 89.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 37 - 312 - 11
Quad 49 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 347 Canisius W 88-48 97%     1 - 0 +24.8 +19.6 +9.4
  Sat, Nov 8 292 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 94%     2 - 0 -4.1 +2.9 -6.6
  Tue, Nov 11 67 @Cincinnati L 62-74 38%     2 - 1 -0.8 -8.4 +9.3
  Sat, Nov 15 269 Bethune-Cookman W 91-82 93%     3 - 1 +0.1 +15.4 -15.2
  Wed, Nov 19 105 @Marquette W 77-71 OT 53%     4 - 1 +13.4 -1.0 +13.6
  Sat, Nov 22 348 NC Central W 74-55 97%     5 - 1 +3.7 +0.2 +4.6
  Thu, Nov 27 99 Georgetown W 84-79 OT 60%     6 - 1 +10.4 +6.7 +3.3
  Fri, Nov 28 11 BYU L 79-83 14%     6 - 2 +15.6 +9.5 +6.4
  Tue, Dec 2 141 East Tennessee St. W 88-71 82%     7 - 2 +15.3 +8.4 +6.1
  Sat, Dec 6 26 Virginia L 73-86 25%     7 - 3 +2.1 +1.2 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 350 North Florida W 84-61 98%     8 - 3 +7.4 +1.7 +6.1
  Tue, Dec 16 113 Florida St. W 97-69 77%     9 - 3 +28.5 +14.2 +11.4
  Sat, Dec 20 102 Liberty L 61-64 72%     9 - 4 -1.1 -1.4 -0.2
  Wed, Dec 31 193 Fordham W 74-61 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 270 @Loyola Chicago W 78-67 85%    
  Tue, Jan 6 77 George Washington W 80-76 64%    
  Tue, Jan 13 121 @Duquesne W 79-76 59%    
  Fri, Jan 16 270 Loyola Chicago W 81-64 94%    
  Wed, Jan 21 233 @La Salle W 74-65 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 188 @Saint Joseph's W 74-67 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 119 Rhode Island W 76-68 77%    
  Fri, Jan 30 37 @Saint Louis L 74-82 23%    
  Tue, Feb 3 116 St. Bonaventure W 75-67 76%    
  Fri, Feb 6 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71-77 29%    
  Sun, Feb 15 140 Davidson W 75-65 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 88 @George Mason L 70-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 121 Duquesne W 82-73 78%    
  Tue, Feb 24 37 Saint Louis L 77-79 42%    
  Fri, Feb 27 77 @George Washington L 77-79 42%    
  Tue, Mar 3 104 @Richmond W 74-73 52%    
  Fri, Mar 6 47 Virginia Commonwealth L 74-75 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 11.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 6.0 5.4 1.8 0.2 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.8 6.1 1.2 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 6.3 6.2 1.2 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.6 5.9 1.5 0.1 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.6 2.1 0.2 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.9 9.4 13.3 16.1 16.7 14.5 9.8 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 92.9% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 67.6% 3.9    2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 32.7% 3.2    0.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.3% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 5.9 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 86.7% 26.7% 60.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8%
17-1 0.8% 76.2% 30.8% 45.4% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 65.6%
16-2 2.4% 53.6% 26.8% 26.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 36.6%
15-3 5.8% 38.1% 24.8% 13.3% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 3.6 17.6%
14-4 9.8% 25.1% 18.7% 6.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.3 7.8%
13-5 14.5% 18.3% 16.0% 2.3% 11.1 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.4 11.8 2.7%
12-6 16.7% 12.0% 11.2% 0.9% 11.3 0.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 14.7 1.0%
11-7 16.1% 7.1% 6.8% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 14.9 0.3%
10-8 13.3% 5.1% 5.0% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 12.6 0.0%
9-9 9.4% 3.4% 3.4% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.1
8-10 5.9% 1.9% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8
7-11 3.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.6% 10.6% 3.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 8.0 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.4 3.3%