Dayton
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#148
Pace62.9#321
Improvement+6.4#1

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#99
First Shot+1.2#143
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#98
Layup/Dunks-0.1#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#71
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#219
Freethrows+0.8#134
Improvement+2.8#18

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#89
First Shot+3.3#78
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#220
Layups/Dunks+3.4#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#114
Freethrows+1.9#74
Improvement+3.6#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 15.8% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 7.2% 2.3%
Average Seed 11.0 10.7 11.4
.500 or above 85.2% 93.3% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 83.0% 74.8%
Conference Champion 9.0% 11.4% 7.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four1.6% 2.6% 1.1%
First Round10.3% 14.4% 8.0%
Second Round3.0% 4.7% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 35.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 24 - 46 - 7
Quad 35 - 311 - 10
Quad 48 - 420 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 261   Illinois-Chicago W 64-54 89%     1 - 0 +1.7 -2.2 +5.5
  Nov 13, 2021 225   Umass Lowell L 58-59 84%     1 - 1 -6.6 -7.2 +0.4
  Nov 17, 2021 239   Lipscomb L 59-78 87%     1 - 2 -26.1 -15.6 -12.0
  Nov 20, 2021 257   Austin Peay L 81-87 89%     1 - 3 -14.0 +0.0 -13.7
  Nov 25, 2021 100   Miami (FL) W 76-60 52%     2 - 3 +20.8 +5.3 +15.9
  Nov 26, 2021 6   Kansas W 74-73 12%     3 - 3 +19.0 +8.6 +10.4
  Nov 28, 2021 57   Belmont W 63-61 39%     4 - 3 +10.1 +0.4 +10.0
  Dec 01, 2021 344   Alabama St. W 93-54 97%     5 - 3 +22.5 +16.2 +7.1
  Dec 04, 2021 319   Northern Illinois W 79-41 94%     6 - 3 +25.7 +8.1 +19.8
  Dec 08, 2021 87   @ SMU L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 12, 2021 36   Virginia Tech L 62-65 39%    
  Dec 18, 2021 61   @ Mississippi L 60-65 30%    
  Dec 21, 2021 297   Southern W 77-61 93%    
  Dec 30, 2021 77   @ Rhode Island L 63-67 34%    
  Jan 02, 2022 45   St. Bonaventure L 63-65 44%    
  Jan 05, 2022 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 61-59 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 264   @ George Washington W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 11, 2022 65   Saint Louis W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 15, 2022 212   @ Duquesne W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 19, 2022 235   Fordham W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 22, 2022 139   @ George Mason W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 28, 2022 77   Rhode Island W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 02, 2022 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 58-62 36%    
  Feb 05, 2022 65   @ Saint Louis L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 09, 2022 212   Duquesne W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 12, 2022 264   George Washington W 73-59 89%    
  Feb 19, 2022 207   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 23, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 248   @ La Salle W 69-62 73%    
  Mar 01, 2022 62   @ Richmond L 66-71 32%    
  Mar 05, 2022 70   Davidson W 66-65 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 9.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.4 3.4 0.9 0.1 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.9 4.8 0.9 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.8 5.8 1.4 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.8 2.2 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.0 3.0 0.3 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.3 9.4 12.4 14.0 14.7 13.4 10.5 6.9 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0 0.0
16-2 94.0% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 73.6% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.5% 2.9    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.6% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 4.6 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 80.1% 24.1% 56.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 73.8%
16-2 1.7% 73.2% 26.0% 47.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 63.8%
15-3 3.7% 46.2% 21.0% 25.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 31.9%
14-4 6.9% 29.5% 16.1% 13.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 4.9 16.0%
13-5 10.5% 19.3% 14.4% 4.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.5 5.7%
12-6 13.4% 11.7% 10.3% 1.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.9 1.6%
11-7 14.7% 6.7% 6.3% 0.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 13.7 0.4%
10-8 14.0% 4.4% 4.2% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 13.4 0.1%
9-9 12.4% 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0 0.0%
8-10 9.4% 1.6% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.3
7-11 6.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.2% 7.5% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 3.1 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 88.8 4.1%