Dayton
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#68
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#103
Pace61.5#336
Improvement+0.5#132

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#95
First Shot+4.3#60
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#291
Layup/Dunks+2.9#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#243
Freethrows+1.9#56
Improvement+1.7#6

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#44
First Shot+8.4#7
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#358
Layups/Dunks+4.7#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#61
Freethrows+3.7#6
Improvement-1.3#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.6% 28.0% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 28.8% 36.0% 15.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round26.5% 27.8% 24.1%
Second Round7.5% 8.3% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.9% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 38 - 49 - 10
Quad 411 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 352   Lindenwood W 73-46 98%     1 - 0 +11.0 -2.5 +14.8
  Nov 11, 2022 167   SMU W 74-62 84%     2 - 0 +9.4 +4.7 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2022 76   @ UNLV L 52-60 44%     2 - 1 +1.7 -13.9 +15.4
  Nov 19, 2022 242   Robert Morris W 60-51 91%     3 - 1 +2.1 -7.5 +10.7
  Nov 23, 2022 57   Wisconsin L 42-43 46%     3 - 2 +8.1 -19.6 +27.6
  Nov 24, 2022 37   North Carolina St. L 64-76 37%     3 - 3 -0.5 -3.1 +2.4
  Nov 25, 2022 81   BYU L 75-79 OT 56%     3 - 4 +2.6 +9.1 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2022 285   Western Michigan W 67-47 94%     4 - 4 +10.7 -2.2 +16.3
  Dec 03, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 80-74 93%     5 - 4 -2.5 +5.6 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2022 49   @ Virginia Tech L 49-77 33%     5 - 5 -15.3 -15.1 -2.0
  Dec 10, 2022 188   UNC Asheville W 79-56 87%     6 - 5 +19.1 +6.1 +13.4
  Dec 17, 2022 139   Wyoming W 66-49 73%     7 - 5 +18.7 +3.6 +18.2
  Dec 20, 2022 289   Alcorn St. W 88-46 94%     8 - 5 +32.5 +16.1 +18.9
  Dec 28, 2022 126   Duquesne W 69-57 79%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +11.6 -2.5 +14.6
  Dec 31, 2022 123   @ Davidson W 69-55 61%     10 - 5 2 - 0 +19.4 +9.1 +12.3
  Jan 04, 2023 162   Saint Joseph's W 76-56 84%     11 - 5 3 - 0 +17.6 +13.5 +7.0
  Jan 10, 2023 132   @ Fordham W 82-58 63%     12 - 5 4 - 0 +28.7 +14.8 +14.0
  Jan 13, 2023 74   Virginia Commonwealth L 62-63 65%     12 - 6 4 - 1 +3.4 -1.8 +5.2
  Jan 17, 2023 123   Davidson W 68-61 79%     13 - 6 5 - 1 +6.9 +1.5 +6.0
  Jan 21, 2023 191   @ George Washington L 69-76 74%     13 - 7 5 - 2 -5.4 -6.1 +0.6
  Jan 25, 2023 198   @ Rhode Island L 70-75 75%     13 - 8 5 - 3 -3.7 +5.1 -9.3
  Jan 28, 2023 125   Richmond W 86-60 79%     14 - 8 6 - 3 +25.7 +20.8 +6.8
  Jan 31, 2023 220   Loyola Chicago W 85-81 OT 89%     15 - 8 7 - 3 -1.3 +9.7 -10.9
  Feb 04, 2023 147   @ St. Bonaventure W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 07, 2023 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 10, 2023 79   Saint Louis W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 17, 2023 220   @ Loyola Chicago W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 22, 2023 143   @ Massachusetts W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 25, 2023 122   George Mason W 68-60 78%    
  Feb 28, 2023 230   La Salle W 72-58 92%    
  Mar 04, 2023 79   @ Saint Louis L 68-69 45%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 10.4 13.0 3.8 28.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.7 13.3 14.7 2.4 32.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 8.8 10.9 1.4 21.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 6.0 1.3 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 1.2 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 7.4 17.7 26.9 26.5 15.5 3.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 3.8    3.6 0.2
14-4 84.4% 13.0    7.7 5.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 39.2% 10.4    2.4 5.4 2.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.6% 1.5    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.8% 28.8 13.8 11.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.8% 43.5% 37.1% 6.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 10.1%
14-4 15.5% 32.9% 32.5% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 1.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 10.4 0.6%
13-5 26.5% 28.9% 28.8% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.3 0.2 18.8 0.0%
12-6 26.9% 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.3 2.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 20.2 0.0%
11-7 17.7% 21.5% 21.5% 12.9 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 13.9
10-8 7.4% 19.1% 19.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 6.0
9-9 2.0% 17.3% 17.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6
8-10 0.3% 10.5% 10.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.6% 26.3% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.9 11.1 8.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 73.4 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 43.5% 11.1 0.1 0.6 4.4 27.6 10.0 0.8