Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.0 #70
Expected Predictive Rating +10.5 #58
Pace 67.7 #224
Improvement +0.9 #131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #121 C C B A+ B+
Defense #34 C B- A+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.30 #56 +5.7 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #304 0.51 #362 -4.0 #344
Three Pointers 42% #156 0.94 #270 -0.9 #223
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.8 #160
Freethrows 23.5 #3 75% #119 17.6 #3
Second Chance 26.9% #283 1.19 #35 0.32 #167
Turnovers 14.9% #82
Total Offense +1.9 #121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #295 1.10 #97 +3.6 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #49 0.71 #114 -1.3 #280
Three Pointers 40% #212 1.12 #313 -1.7 #260
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #163 +0.6 #162
Freethrows 15.2 #78 70% #77 10.6 #303
Second Chance 30.7% #177 0.94 #59 0.29 #104
Turnovers 23.3% #4
Total Defense +6.2 #34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #51 -1.9% #45
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #185 0.8% #199
Possession Length 16.6 #113 18.1 #303
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #54 0.13 #57
Improvement -2.3 #314 +3.2 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 15.1% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.4% 4.6% 1.8%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.4% 91.2%
Conference Champion 12.3% 12.9% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 3.0% 1.3%
First Round13.1% 13.4% 8.6%
Second Round3.3% 3.4% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Home) - 93.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 38 - 213 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 337 Canisius W 88 - 48 97% +21  1 - 0 +26 +19 B A+ A+ +11 B C A+
 Sat, Nov 8 277 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 94% +4  2 - 0 -4 +3 C B C- -6 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 56 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 33% -9  2 - 1 +1 -8 F F A+ +10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 272 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 94% +6  3 - 1 -0 +15 A+ B F -16 C- F D
 Wed, Nov 19 106 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 52% +5  4 - 1 +13 -1 A+ C F +13 B+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 338 NC Central W 74 - 55 97% +19  5 - 1 +5 -1 F C- A+ +7 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 100 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 61% +7  6 - 1 +10 +6 C C C +3 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 11 BYU L 79 - 83 14% +0  6 - 2 +16 +10 A+ D- C +6 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 119 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 79% +10  7 - 2 +17 +10 A+ B- C +5 C- C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 17 Virginia L 73 - 86 19% -2  7 - 3 +4 +4 B+ F A +1 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 350 North Florida W 84 - 61 98% +21  8 - 3 +7 +1 A- F B- +6 A+ D A-
 Tue, Dec 16 117 Florida St. W 97 - 69 78% +13  9 - 3 +28 +12 C+ D+ A+ +13 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 95 Liberty L 61 - 64 70% +2  9 - 4 -0 -2 D- D C +1 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 183 Fordham W 63 - 56 88% +5  10 - 4 1 - 0 +2 -4 F A+ B +7 B- A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 259 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 84% -6  11 - 4 2 - 0 -1 -3 F D+ A- +2 D- C A+
 Tue, Jan 6 60 George Washington W 79 - 72 58% -1  12 - 4 3 - 0 +13 +7 F A+ B+ +7 C C A+
 Tue, Jan 13 132 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 63% +5  13 - 4 4 - 0 +11 +5 B- F C+ +6 A- A+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 259 Loyola Chicago W 80 - 63 94%
 Wed, Jan 21 208 @La Salle W 73 - 65 77%
 Sat, Jan 24 175 @Saint Joseph's W 72 - 66 72%
 Tue, Jan 27 123 Rhode Island W 72 - 63 79%
 Fri, Jan 30 32 @Saint Louis L 71 - 80 20%
 Tue, Feb 3 127 St. Bonaventure W 76 - 67 80%
 Fri, Feb 6 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 71 - 76 31%
 Sun, Feb 15 149 Davidson W 72 - 62 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 86 @George Mason L 69 - 71 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 132 Duquesne W 81 - 71 82%
 Tue, Feb 24 32 Saint Louis L 74 - 77 38%
 Fri, Feb 27 60 @George Washington L 75 - 79 35%
 Tue, Mar 3 116 @Richmond W 74 - 72 57%
 Fri, Mar 6 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 74 - 73 52%
Totals 21 - 10 12 - 6 +8 +2 C C B +6 C B- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 12.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 7.1 9.3 4.1 0.5 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 7.2 10.2 3.0 0.2 22.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 6.3 8.6 2.8 0.1 18.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 6.4 2.3 0.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.4 9.3 15.0 19.5 20.5 15.1 9.1 3.7 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.1
16-2 85.8% 3.2    2.1 1.1 0.0
15-3 52.5% 4.8    2.1 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 17.8% 2.7    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 5.8 4.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 87.1% 19.4% 67.7% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.0%
17-1 1.0% 70.0% 28.0% 42.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 58.4%
16-2 3.7% 46.5% 22.4% 24.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 2.0 31.0%
15-3 9.1% 30.9% 18.4% 12.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.1 6.3 15.3%
14-4 15.1% 21.8% 15.9% 5.9% 10.9 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.2 11.8 7.0%
13-5 20.5% 14.4% 12.6% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.2 2.4 0.4 17.6 2.1%
12-6 19.5% 8.8% 8.4% 0.5% 11.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 17.8 0.5%
11-7 15.0% 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 14.2 0.2%
10-8 9.3% 3.3% 3.3% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.0
9-9 4.4% 2.6% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 4.3
8-10 1.6% 2.2% 2.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-11 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 10.7% 4.0% 10.8 85.3 4.4%