Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#78
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#37
Pace65.8#279
Improvement+0.8#108

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#95
First Shot+3.4#80
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#194
Layup/Dunks+3.7#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#279
Freethrows+3.1#38
Improvement-0.4#229

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot+7.4#15
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#328
Layups/Dunks+4.5#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#211
Freethrows+3.1#27
Improvement+1.3#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 2.3% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 36.0% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.1% 24.5% 8.0%
Average Seed 10.2 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 95.6% 99.0% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 89.8% 84.0%
Conference Champion 13.0% 20.3% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four4.8% 8.8% 4.2%
First Round17.7% 31.0% 15.8%
Second Round6.1% 12.7% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 3.0% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Neutral) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 4
Quad 24 - 46 - 8
Quad 37 - 213 - 11
Quad 49 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 348 Canisius W 88-48 97%     1 - 0 +25.4 +17.4 +12.2
  Sat, Nov 8 289 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 94%     2 - 0 -4.1 +3.4 -7.2
  Tue, Nov 11 65 @Cincinnati L 62-74 35%     2 - 1 -0.5 -8.4 +9.6
  Sat, Nov 15 217 Bethune-Cookman W 91-82 90%     3 - 1 +2.5 +16.3 -13.6
  Wed, Nov 19 73 @Marquette W 77-71 OT 38%     4 - 1 +16.8 +0.3 +15.7
  Sat, Nov 22 350 NC Central W 74-55 97%     5 - 1 +3.8 -1.7 +6.6
  Thu, Nov 27 79 Georgetown W 84-79 OT 51%     6 - 1 +12.3 +8.6 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 28 7 BYU L 66-78 13%    
  Tue, Dec 2 137 East Tennessee St. W 72-63 80%    
  Sat, Dec 6 39 Virginia L 68-73 34%    
  Sat, Dec 13 341 North Florida W 88-66 98%    
  Tue, Dec 16 55 Florida St. W 77-76 53%    
  Sat, Dec 20 97 Liberty W 73-68 68%    
  Wed, Dec 31 212 Fordham W 73-59 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 265 @Loyola Chicago W 74-64 82%    
  Tue, Jan 6 62 George Washington W 78-76 57%    
  Tue, Jan 13 126 @Duquesne W 77-75 57%    
  Fri, Jan 16 265 Loyola Chicago W 77-61 92%    
  Wed, Jan 21 214 @La Salle W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Jan 24 175 @Saint Joseph's W 76-70 70%    
  Tue, Jan 27 106 Rhode Island W 74-68 72%    
  Fri, Jan 30 50 @Saint Louis L 71-77 31%    
  Tue, Feb 3 119 St. Bonaventure W 72-64 75%    
  Fri, Feb 6 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 68-74 31%    
  Sun, Feb 15 135 Davidson W 73-64 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 74 @George Mason L 66-69 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 126 Duquesne W 80-72 76%    
  Tue, Feb 24 50 Saint Louis W 75-74 51%    
  Fri, Feb 27 62 @George Washington L 75-79 35%    
  Tue, Mar 3 115 @Richmond W 72-71 54%    
  Fri, Mar 6 53 Virginia Commonwealth W 72-71 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.7 4.2 2.6 0.9 0.2 13.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.6 1.3 0.1 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.7 4.7 1.1 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.8 5.8 1.2 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.9 6.1 1.8 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.3 2.1 0.1 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.6 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.5 0.5 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.0 0.6 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.3 7.0 10.2 13.3 14.7 15.3 12.5 9.4 5.6 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 94.7% 2.6    2.2 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.9% 4.2    2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.5% 3.7    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 10.2% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 7.4 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 94.7% 49.1% 45.6% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.7%
17-1 0.9% 90.8% 36.2% 54.6% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 85.5%
16-2 2.7% 77.3% 34.0% 43.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 65.6%
15-3 5.6% 59.3% 25.2% 34.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.3 45.6%
14-4 9.4% 46.2% 23.0% 23.2% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.1 0.1 5.1 30.1%
13-5 12.5% 30.7% 17.4% 13.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.4 0.3 8.6 16.1%
12-6 15.3% 18.5% 12.8% 5.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.4 6.6%
11-7 14.7% 10.6% 7.8% 2.9% 11.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 13.1 3.1%
10-8 13.3% 5.4% 4.7% 0.7% 11.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 12.6 0.7%
9-9 10.2% 3.2% 2.9% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.8 0.2%
8-10 7.0% 2.1% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9
7-11 4.3% 1.4% 1.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 2.4% 1.5% 1.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.3% 11.4% 8.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.2 4.3 9.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 79.7 10.1%