Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Alabama 100.0%   1   19 - 3 9 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 2 +19.0      +8.8 14 +10.3 5 81.0 3 +20.4 2 +25.4 1
3 Tennessee 100.0%   2   18 - 4 7 - 2 25 - 6 14 - 4 +18.7      +5.8 43 +12.8 1 67.5 195 +16.1 14 +14.3 3
18 Arkansas 78.3%   9   15 - 7 4 - 5 20 - 11 9 - 9 +13.9      +5.1 51 +8.8 12 73.7 49 +10.8 49 +7.1 10
27 Auburn 89.7%   6   17 - 5 7 - 2 21 - 10 11 - 7 +12.8      +5.5 47 +7.3 21 70.1 119 +12.8 30 +13.3 6
32 Kentucky 70.6%   9   15 - 7 6 - 3 20 - 11 11 - 7 +12.3      +7.5 23 +4.8 53 66.4 231 +11.4 42 +13.8 4
40 Florida 33.6%   13 - 9 6 - 3 18 - 13 11 - 7 +11.2      +1.6 125 +9.6 8 72.2 80 +9.2 58 +13.4 5
42 Texas A&M 49.7%   11   15 - 7 7 - 2 20 - 11 12 - 6 +10.7      +6.3 33 +4.4 61 67.0 215 +9.6 56 +17.5 2
46 Missouri 75.5%   10   17 - 5 5 - 4 22 - 9 10 - 8 +10.0      +10.2 7 -0.2 179 74.3 40 +14.3 19 +11.9 7
55 Mississippi St. 27.5%   14 - 8 2 - 7 19 - 12 7 - 11 +9.5      +0.5 156 +9.0 10 62.4 324 +9.8 55 +2.7 11
95 Mississippi 1.1%   9 - 13 1 - 8 13 - 18 5 - 13 +5.0      +1.5 126 +3.5 80 64.6 280 +2.4 133 -3.5 14
97 Vanderbilt 1.3%   10 - 12 3 - 6 13 - 18 6 - 12 +4.9      +4.4 66 +0.5 157 65.9 255 +4.6 106 +7.6 9
103 Georgia 0.9%   14 - 8 4 - 5 17 - 14 7 - 11 +4.2      +2.0 115 +2.2 107 69.3 142 +6.9 80 +8.5 8
106 LSU 0.9%   12 - 10 1 - 8 15 - 16 4 - 14 +3.9      +1.3 132 +2.5 102 65.4 268 +6.3 86 +2.2 12
229 South Carolina 0.0%   8 - 14 1 - 8 9 - 22 2 - 16 -3.4      -2.1 242 -1.3 219 63.7 299 -0.8 185 -2.5 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Alabama 1.1 90.6 8.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 2.2 19.1 59.9 12.7 4.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 6.7 0.0 0.9 4.7 8.3 12.3 16.5 20.1 22.7 9.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0
Auburn 4.3 2.3 12.2 22.1 20.5 17.2 12.6 8.3 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 4.8 0.6 8.9 20.5 19.3 16.3 14.2 10.2 6.7 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Florida 4.6 0.7 7.4 23.7 22.1 18.1 13.7 8.5 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas A&M 4.1 2.3 14.7 27.6 20.0 14.9 9.9 6.3 3.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
Missouri 5.9 0.0 2.2 9.2 13.0 16.7 18.9 19.9 12.3 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 9.3 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.7 13.7 25.9 22.8 15.7 6.2 2.0 0.1
Mississippi 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 5.7 10.7 18.8 33.3 25.3 4.3
Vanderbilt 10.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 3.1 7.2 18.5 23.5 27.3 13.3 4.5 0.3
Georgia 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.6 7.5 14.6 28.7 24.7 12.9 4.2 0.9 0.0
LSU 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 8.1 15.6 30.6 34.5 6.3
South Carolina 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 5.9 19.8 72.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Alabama 16 - 2 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 9.1 21.3 31.2 26.2 9.0
Tennessee 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 11.4 22.5 29.5 22.8 8.7
Arkansas 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.9 7.4 17.6 26.7 25.8 15.0 4.7 0.7
Auburn 11 - 7 0.3 2.4 9.1 19.2 25.8 23.0 13.5 5.5 1.2 0.1
Kentucky 11 - 7 0.1 1.1 4.7 12.1 21.0 25.1 20.2 11.1 4.0 0.7
Florida 11 - 7 0.1 0.5 2.9 9.6 19.9 27.3 23.3 12.6 3.5 0.4
Texas A&M 12 - 6 0.3 1.9 7.1 16.0 23.4 23.6 17.0 8.1 2.3 0.3
Missouri 10 - 8 0.1 0.6 3.4 10.7 21.7 27.3 21.8 11.1 3.1 0.3
Mississippi St. 7 - 11 0.0 0.6 3.2 10.2 19.4 25.9 22.8 12.9 4.4 0.6
Mississippi 5 - 13 0.6 4.7 14.9 24.8 25.9 17.8 8.2 2.4 0.5 0.0
Vanderbilt 6 - 12 1.5 8.1 19.2 26.4 23.6 13.9 5.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
Georgia 7 - 11 1.4 7.9 19.5 27.7 24.2 13.4 4.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
LSU 4 - 14 1.1 7.5 19.3 27.4 23.6 14.1 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
South Carolina 2 - 16 26.8 38.1 24.1 8.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Alabama 90.6% 77.1 12.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 19.1% 7.4 10.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Auburn 2.3% 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 2.3% 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St.
Mississippi
Vanderbilt
Georgia
LSU
South Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Alabama 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 1   73.5 23.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Tennessee 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2   33.9 36.2 19.0 7.8 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Arkansas 78.3% 9.9% 68.4% 9   0.2 0.7 1.6 4.0 6.3 9.8 11.8 12.2 11.7 11.7 7.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.7 75.9%
Auburn 89.7% 7.9% 81.7% 6   0.3 1.1 3.3 7.4 11.3 13.3 15.7 12.8 11.2 8.9 4.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.3 88.8%
Kentucky 70.6% 7.0% 63.5% 9   0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.2 8.1 11.3 11.9 10.5 10.7 7.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 29.4 68.3%
Florida 33.6% 5.4% 28.2% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.9 5.6 7.9 8.0 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 66.4 29.8%
Texas A&M 49.7% 4.6% 45.1% 11   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.3 6.6 10.1 9.4 10.3 6.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 50.3 47.2%
Missouri 75.5% 4.1% 71.4% 10   0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.1 8.8 12.5 17.9 18.3 10.3 0.4 0.0 24.5 74.4%
Mississippi St. 27.5% 3.5% 24.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.7 7.8 10.5 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 72.5 24.8%
Mississippi 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 98.9 0.0%
Vanderbilt 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 98.7 0.2%
Georgia 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.1 0.1%
LSU 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.1 0.0%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Alabama 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.6% 74.0% 51.3% 32.7% 19.7% 11.8%
Tennessee 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.5% 70.6% 46.8% 28.8% 17.1% 9.9%
Arkansas 78.3% 9.0% 74.7% 47.5% 21.6% 10.4% 4.6% 1.9% 0.8%
Auburn 89.7% 5.2% 87.2% 54.2% 22.8% 9.7% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6%
Kentucky 70.6% 9.0% 66.5% 38.2% 14.9% 6.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Florida 33.6% 8.9% 29.6% 14.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Texas A&M 49.7% 8.1% 45.7% 22.1% 7.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Missouri 75.5% 13.7% 68.2% 30.7% 8.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Mississippi St. 27.5% 12.0% 21.3% 9.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Mississippi 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LSU 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.3 0.1 2.8 17.1 38.3 32.0 8.8 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.0 0.0 0.5 5.7 24.4 40.3 24.1 4.7 0.3
2nd Round 100.0% 4.1 0.0 0.3 5.4 22.7 36.9 25.9 7.9 0.9 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.0% 2.3 2.0 17.3 41.9 29.2 8.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 84.4% 1.3 15.6 43.3 33.3 7.1 0.6 0.0
Final Four 61.4% 0.8 38.6 47.9 12.8 0.7 0.0
Final Game 39.3% 0.4 60.7 36.3 3.0
Champion 23.8% 0.2 76.2 23.8