Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
10 LSU 96.3%   2   7 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 12 - 6 +16.3      +8.4 14 +7.9 16 74.0 71 +16.3 16 0.0 1
12 Florida 94.8%   3   6 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 12 - 6 +15.6      +7.1 26 +8.5 10 69.3 185 +20.0 7 0.0 1
13 Kentucky 87.7%   4   5 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +15.5      +8.9 11 +6.6 32 70.4 149 +12.1 45 0.0 1
18 Alabama 86.5%   4   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +14.4      +8.0 19 +6.4 35 80.5 13 +11.6 51 0.0 1
21 Auburn 89.5%   5   5 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +14.0      +8.0 20 +6.1 41 75.2 54 +15.8 18 0.0 1
24 Tennessee 81.3%   5   4 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 7 +13.7      +6.1 32 +7.6 22 71.0 130 +14.3 28 0.0 1
25 Arkansas 82.3%   6   5 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 11 - 7 +13.4      +7.4 22 +6.1 40 78.6 24 +16.8 11 0.0 1
37 Mississippi St. 60.4%   10   5 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +10.8      +5.1 51 +5.7 42 64.3 296 +11.2 56 0.0 1
74 Mississippi 13.9%   4 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 11 +6.8      +1.1 133 +5.7 44 64.1 302 +0.3 170 0.0 1
76 Vanderbilt 16.5%   4 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 11 +6.7      +2.3 104 +4.4 62 69.4 175 +6.2 91 0.0 1
81 Texas A&M 17.2%   6 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +6.5      +1.5 124 +5.0 53 63.7 308 +12.7 40 0.0 1
91 South Carolina 14.8%   4 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +5.7      +0.8 147 +4.9 55 82.7 4 +8.5 73 0.0 1
127 Missouri 1.7%   3 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 20 5 - 13 +2.6      -0.7 195 +3.2 82 69.5 174 -0.5 181 0.0 1
154 Georgia 0.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 21 4 - 14 +0.9      +1.3 127 -0.4 185 72.1 100 -3.2 223 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
LSU 3.9 22.6 14.9 14.0 12.5 10.0 8.2 6.2 5.1 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1
Florida 3.6 26.5 16.8 14.4 12.1 7.9 6.7 5.4 4.3 2.3 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Kentucky 4.4 17.5 14.6 13.6 11.0 9.6 10.1 7.7 5.9 4.2 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Alabama 4.7 16.0 12.6 13.3 11.7 10.4 9.4 8.0 6.8 4.7 3.5 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1
Auburn 4.4 16.9 14.8 13.0 11.8 11.3 9.4 7.6 5.6 4.3 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1
Tennessee 5.1 12.4 11.9 11.1 11.5 10.9 10.1 8.8 8.1 5.0 4.6 2.8 1.5 1.1 0.2
Arkansas 5.0 12.9 12.0 13.2 11.4 10.3 9.1 9.0 7.4 5.2 4.6 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.2
Mississippi St. 6.5 4.6 6.6 9.0 9.5 10.8 11.5 10.6 9.9 9.5 6.7 5.4 3.6 2.0 0.5
Mississippi 9.2 0.6 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.1 6.8 8.0 10.2 11.4 12.9 14.3 11.9 8.0 4.7
Vanderbilt 9.5 0.8 1.0 1.7 3.4 3.8 6.0 7.1 10.6 10.9 12.8 12.8 13.7 10.0 5.3
Texas A&M 9.1 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.7 4.6 6.7 8.8 10.6 12.3 12.4 13.0 11.4 7.4 4.6
South Carolina 9.9 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.6 3.2 4.3 6.4 8.9 10.4 13.1 13.8 13.6 12.0 8.1
Missouri 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.7 4.6 6.6 9.2 12.7 17.3 22.0 21.5
Georgia 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.5 4.1 8.1 10.5 15.5 22.5 32.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
LSU 12 - 6 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 3.0 4.4 7.8 10.7 13.3 14.6 13.8 13.0 9.9 5.3 2.0 0.5
Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.2 4.1 6.7 8.3 11.7 15.2 15.0 13.9 10.5 6.6 2.7 0.7
Kentucky 12 - 6 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.2 8.8 12.6 12.4 14.7 13.0 11.6 7.4 3.8 1.7 0.2
Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.5 7.1 9.5 11.9 14.5 14.4 11.6 11.0 6.0 3.5 1.4 0.1
Auburn 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.1 3.4 6.9 8.5 12.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 10.8 7.6 3.6 1.4 0.4
Tennessee 11 - 7 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 3.6 5.7 8.4 11.0 12.4 14.1 12.9 11.6 7.8 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.2
Arkansas 11 - 7 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 6.0 7.1 11.7 11.7 13.2 13.6 12.1 9.5 4.9 2.6 1.0 0.2
Mississippi St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.5 0.5 2.3 3.5 7.0 9.5 11.9 12.1 14.3 13.3 10.9 7.1 4.4 1.6 1.1 0.2
Mississippi 7 - 11 0.1 1.1 2.2 5.2 8.3 11.8 14.9 14.4 13.0 10.8 8.4 4.3 3.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 2.5 6.9 10.4 12.1 14.2 13.6 13.1 9.8 7.1 4.7 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1
Texas A&M 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.2 7.7 11.8 13.6 15.0 14.3 10.9 7.8 5.7 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 4.7 7.8 10.3 13.4 13.9 14.4 12.2 7.9 5.3 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri 5 - 13 1.7 6.1 11.2 15.4 16.5 14.5 13.0 9.0 6.0 3.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Georgia 4 - 14 3.5 9.4 16.4 16.3 16.6 14.1 9.4 7.3 3.4 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
LSU 22.6% 14.1 6.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1
Florida 26.5% 16.1 7.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 17.5% 10.1 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.1
Alabama 16.0% 8.6 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.1
Auburn 16.9% 9.5 5.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1
Tennessee 12.4% 6.4 4.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Arkansas 12.9% 6.3 4.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.1
Mississippi St. 4.6% 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi 0.6% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1
Texas A&M 0.8% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Missouri 0.1% 0.1
Georgia 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
LSU 96.3% 18.6% 77.7% 2   15.2 17.3 14.4 13.3 9.5 7.5 6.7 4.4 3.1 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.7 95.5%
Florida 94.8% 17.1% 77.7% 3   12.0 14.1 16.0 14.3 10.5 9.0 6.2 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 5.2 93.8%
Kentucky 87.7% 14.4% 73.3% 4   9.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 10.7 8.3 7.2 5.2 3.4 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.3 85.6%
Alabama 86.5% 12.9% 73.6% 4   9.5 12.8 11.4 12.1 10.1 8.6 6.2 3.9 3.8 3.4 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.5 84.5%
Auburn 89.5% 11.6% 77.8% 5   6.8 9.1 11.2 12.5 11.3 9.4 8.1 7.1 5.5 3.7 3.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.6 88.1%
Tennessee 81.3% 9.9% 71.4% 5   6.3 8.0 9.1 10.4 10.0 9.9 7.8 5.9 4.6 3.2 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 18.7 79.2%
Arkansas 82.3% 8.9% 73.5% 6   3.9 5.7 8.0 9.6 10.5 8.9 9.1 6.8 7.4 5.6 4.7 2.0 0.0 17.7 80.6%
Mississippi St. 60.4% 3.5% 56.9% 10   0.7 1.5 2.7 4.2 5.7 6.8 6.5 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.3 2.6 0.2 39.7 58.9%
Mississippi 13.9% 0.9% 13.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 86.1 13.1%
Vanderbilt 16.5% 0.9% 15.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 83.5 15.7%
Texas A&M 17.2% 0.6% 16.6% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.8 4.2 2.1 0.1 82.9 16.7%
South Carolina 14.8% 0.6% 14.1% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.5 3.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 85.3 14.2%
Missouri 1.7% 0.0% 1.6% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.3 1.6%
Georgia 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
LSU 96.3% 1.7% 95.5% 77.8% 47.6% 25.5% 12.6% 6.2% 3.2%
Florida 94.8% 1.4% 94.2% 74.4% 43.9% 22.4% 10.8% 5.3% 2.2%
Kentucky 87.7% 2.6% 86.5% 67.3% 39.2% 20.1% 9.8% 4.3% 1.6%
Alabama 86.5% 3.8% 84.8% 64.0% 34.7% 16.5% 8.1% 3.7% 1.8%
Auburn 89.5% 3.2% 88.1% 63.0% 33.4% 15.9% 6.9% 3.0% 1.4%
Tennessee 81.3% 4.4% 79.2% 56.2% 30.7% 13.6% 6.1% 2.7% 1.0%
Arkansas 82.3% 4.2% 80.5% 55.0% 28.1% 13.3% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1%
Mississippi St. 60.4% 6.0% 57.3% 32.5% 12.6% 5.0% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
Mississippi 13.9% 3.3% 12.2% 5.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 16.5% 3.0% 14.9% 6.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Texas A&M 17.2% 4.5% 14.5% 6.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 14.8% 2.9% 13.1% 5.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri 1.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.4 0.1 2.4 14.3 35.8 33.8 12.2 1.4 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.2 0.3 3.7 18.6 38.4 29.4 8.8 0.8 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.1 1.2 7.6 19.8 32.3 26.4 10.4 2.1 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.4% 2.8 1.6 11.8 28.3 32.4 19.6 5.7 0.7 0.1
Elite Eight 81.8% 1.3 18.2 40.9 30.3 9.3 1.2 0.1
Final Four 51.8% 0.6 48.2 41.4 9.5 0.9
Final Game 27.3% 0.3 72.7 25.7 1.6
Champion 12.5% 0.1 87.5 12.5