Auburn
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#16
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#18
Pace75.2#50
Improvement+1.0#107

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#19
First Shot+5.1#45
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#41
Layup/Dunks+3.2#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#28
First Shot+9.9#7
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#322
Layups/Dunks+5.6#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#49
Freethrows+0.2#179
Improvement+0.8#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 2.0% 0.6%
#1 Seed 8.5% 9.4% 3.7%
Top 2 Seed 20.2% 22.1% 9.9%
Top 4 Seed 46.7% 49.7% 30.6%
Top 6 Seed 68.8% 71.7% 52.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.3% 95.3% 88.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.5% 94.6% 87.7%
Average Seed 4.9 4.7 5.9
.500 or above 99.4% 99.7% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 92.6% 87.1%
Conference Champion 20.1% 21.4% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four2.1% 1.8% 3.7%
First Round93.3% 94.5% 87.0%
Second Round70.4% 72.4% 59.8%
Sweet Sixteen38.9% 40.7% 29.0%
Elite Eight19.1% 20.2% 12.9%
Final Four9.1% 9.7% 5.6%
Championship Game4.2% 4.5% 2.4%
National Champion1.8% 2.0% 1.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Neutral) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 7
Quad 26 - 113 - 8
Quad 38 - 120 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 143   Morehead St. W 77-54 93%     1 - 0 +21.8 +4.5 +17.6
  Nov 12, 2021 259   Louisiana Monroe W 93-65 97%     2 - 0 +19.9 +9.9 +8.1
  Nov 19, 2021 247   @ South Florida W 58-52 93%     3 - 0 +4.6 -5.9 +11.0
  Nov 24, 2021 23   Connecticut L 109-115 2OT 56%     3 - 1 +7.5 +12.6 -3.4
  Nov 25, 2021 33   Loyola Chicago W 62-53 62%     4 - 1 +20.8 +2.3 +19.5
  Nov 26, 2021 59   Syracuse W 89-68 75%     5 - 1 +28.9 +16.4 +12.5
  Dec 01, 2021 63   Central Florida W 85-68 84%     6 - 1 +21.5 +5.1 +14.5
  Dec 04, 2021 135   Yale W 86-64 92%     7 - 1 +21.2 +7.6 +12.4
  Dec 11, 2021 109   Nebraska W 82-71 84%    
  Dec 14, 2021 311   North Alabama W 87-60 99%    
  Dec 18, 2021 65   @ Saint Louis W 79-75 66%    
  Dec 22, 2021 94   Murray St. W 78-66 88%    
  Dec 29, 2021 11   LSU W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 04, 2022 118   @ South Carolina W 80-72 78%    
  Jan 08, 2022 30   Florida W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 11, 2022 10   @ Alabama L 78-83 32%    
  Jan 15, 2022 61   @ Mississippi W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 19, 2022 150   Georgia W 84-67 93%    
  Jan 22, 2022 15   Kentucky W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 25, 2022 158   @ Missouri W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 29, 2022 29   Oklahoma W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 01, 2022 10   Alabama W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 150   @ Georgia W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 08, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 12, 2022 76   Texas A&M W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 16, 2022 86   Vanderbilt W 79-67 86%    
  Feb 19, 2022 30   @ Florida L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 23, 2022 61   Mississippi W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 26, 2022 13   @ Tennessee L 72-76 36%    
  Mar 02, 2022 48   @ Mississippi St. W 73-71 59%    
  Mar 05, 2022 118   South Carolina W 83-69 90%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.9 4.5 1.9 0.4 20.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.1 6.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.8 6.2 1.7 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 6.0 1.7 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.5 1.9 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.2 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.3 7.0 10.5 13.7 15.5 15.5 13.2 9.3 4.8 1.9 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.7% 1.9    1.8 0.1
16-2 94.3% 4.5    3.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 74.4% 6.9    3.9 2.6 0.4 0.0
14-4 37.4% 4.9    1.4 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.8% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 11.5 6.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.8% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.3% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.2 2.6 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.2% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.9 1.4 3.6 4.2 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.5% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 4.0 0.4 1.6 3.8 4.8 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.5% 99.8% 11.6% 88.2% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.5 4.1 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 13.7% 99.1% 8.0% 91.1% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 3.3 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 10.5% 96.4% 4.0% 92.4% 7.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 96.2%
9-9 7.0% 88.3% 2.0% 86.4% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.8 88.1%
8-10 4.3% 66.8% 1.6% 65.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 66.3%
7-11 2.3% 38.1% 1.3% 36.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 37.2%
6-12 1.0% 12.0% 1.0% 11.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 11.2%
5-13 0.4% 2.0% 2.0% 12.0 0.0 0.4 2.0%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.3% 13.0% 81.3% 4.9 8.5 11.7 12.9 13.6 11.8 10.3 8.3 6.2 4.7 3.1 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.7 93.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.3 13.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2