Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.4#3
Expected Predictive Rating+25.6#1
Pace70.1#153
Improvement-1.1#248

Offense
Total Offense+14.3#1
First Shot+11.6#3
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#55
Layup/Dunks+5.0#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#60
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement+0.8#114

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#32
First Shot+3.6#73
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#42
Layups/Dunks+0.8#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#18
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement-1.9#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 20.1% 20.2% 11.8%
#1 Seed 53.9% 54.1% 34.1%
Top 2 Seed 80.8% 81.0% 60.1%
Top 4 Seed 95.4% 95.5% 86.8%
Top 6 Seed 98.3% 98.4% 95.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.7% 99.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.6% 99.1%
Average Seed 1.8 1.8 2.6
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 95.0% 88.8%
Conference Champion 33.8% 34.0% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round99.6% 99.6% 98.6%
Second Round96.2% 96.2% 91.0%
Sweet Sixteen72.1% 72.2% 64.7%
Elite Eight48.5% 48.6% 34.9%
Final Four30.1% 30.2% 17.0%
Championship Game17.9% 18.0% 9.6%
National Champion10.3% 10.3% 4.6%

Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a9 - 69 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 115 - 7
Quad 24 - 020 - 7
Quad 32 - 021 - 7
Quad 44 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 183   Vermont W 94-43 98%     1 - 0 +46.9 +22.1 +25.0
  Nov 09, 2024 6   Houston W 74-69 57%     2 - 0 +23.4 +20.3 +3.7
  Nov 13, 2024 110   Kent St. W 79-56 96%     3 - 0 +23.6 +17.6 +8.4
  Nov 18, 2024 214   North Alabama W 102-69 98%     4 - 0 +27.4 +20.3 +5.3
  Nov 25, 2024 8   Iowa St. W 83-81 58%     5 - 0 +20.2 +16.9 +3.3
  Nov 26, 2024 17   North Carolina W 85-72 71%     6 - 0 +27.8 +12.6 +14.5
  Nov 27, 2024 32   Memphis W 90-76 76%     7 - 0 +26.9 +25.5 +2.0
  Dec 04, 2024 2   @ Duke L 78-84 38%     7 - 1 +17.6 +26.2 -9.3
  Dec 08, 2024 186   Richmond W 87-62 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 29   Ohio St. W 81-74 75%    
  Dec 17, 2024 230   Georgia St. W 91-64 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 21   Purdue W 80-74 71%    
  Dec 30, 2024 287   Monmouth W 92-62 99.7%   
  Jan 04, 2025 63   Missouri W 87-73 90%    
  Jan 07, 2025 34   @ Texas W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 11, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 14, 2025 15   Mississippi St. W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 38   @ Georgia W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 4   Tennessee W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 47   @ LSU W 83-76 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 26   @ Mississippi W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 04, 2025 41   Oklahoma W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 10   Florida W 85-79 70%    
  Feb 11, 2025 67   @ Vanderbilt W 85-77 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 86-87 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 33   Arkansas W 85-74 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 38   Georgia W 83-71 85%    
  Feb 26, 2025 26   Mississippi W 83-73 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 83-84 49%    
  Mar 04, 2025 30   @ Texas A&M W 77-73 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Alabama W 89-84 67%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.0 10.0 8.5 4.5 1.2 33.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 7.0 6.9 3.0 0.5 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.4 5.1 1.5 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 4.2 1.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.2 0.1 7.1 5th
6th 0.6 2.6 1.4 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.2 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.4 7.3 10.9 13.5 15.6 15.4 13.1 9.0 4.5 1.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.5% 4.5    4.4 0.1
16-2 94.9% 8.5    7.2 1.3 0.0
15-3 76.4% 10.0    6.3 3.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 45.3% 7.0    2.7 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.0% 2.3    0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.8% 33.8 22.3 8.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.0 1.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.5% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.0 4.3 0.2 100.0%
16-2 9.0% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.1 8.2 0.8 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.1% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.2 11.1 1.9 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.4% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.3 11.5 3.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.6% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.5 9.0 5.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.5% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 1.8 5.3 6.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.9% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 2.2 2.4 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
10-8 7.3% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 2.7 0.7 2.4 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 4.4% 100.1% 4.8% 95.3% 3.5 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.1%
8-10 2.6% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
7-11 1.5% 99.5% 2.8% 96.7% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
6-12 0.6% 91.5% 91.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.5%
5-13 0.2% 52.9% 1.7% 51.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 52.1%
4-14 0.1% 15.7% 15.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.7%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 22.7% 77.0% 1.8 53.9 26.9 10.3 4.4 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.0 98.3 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 97.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2