Colorado
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.6 #87
Expected Predictive Rating +7.7 #81
Pace 70.9 #140
Improvement -3.1 #331

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #58 A- B+ C B+ B
Defense #142 C B C+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #6 1.26 #83 +8.1 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #201 0.88 #45 +0.9 #124
Three Pointers 32% #335 1.17 #34 -2.0 #247
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #31 +7.0 #31
Freethrows 19.7 #77 77% #55 15.2 #43
Second Chance 33.6% #98 0.92 #309 0.31 #191
Turnovers 14.1% #43
Total Offense +6.1 #58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.04 #54 +1.1 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #76 0.81 #263 -2.1 #318
Three Pointers 35% #326 1.08 #269 +2.0 #107
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #142 +0.9 #142
Freethrows 14.4 #48 74% #238 10.7 #67
Second Chance 26.3% #49 1.15 #287 0.30 #148
Turnovers 15.6% #246
Total Defense +0.5 #142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #74 -0.5% #123
Shot Type Make % Effect 11.8% #33 -1.2% #157
Possession Length 16.0 #69 17.6 #248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #12 0.15 #111
Improvement -3.2 #350 +0.1 #178

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 9.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 9.5% 3.6%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.2
.500 or above 53.6% 71.8% 44.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.5% 20.9% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 8.7% 23.5%
First Four2.4% 3.7% 1.8%
First Round4.0% 7.1% 2.4%
Second Round1.3% 2.2% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 25 - 56 - 14
Quad 35 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 158 Montana St. W 84-78 82%     1.2   1 - 0 +3.0 +11.4 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 8 260 Eastern Washington W 102-97 OT 92%     1.3   2 - 0 -3.6 +10.9 -15.1
  Fri, Nov 14 80 Providence W 97-88 59%     4.4   3 - 0 +13.3 +11.6 +0.6
  Mon, Nov 17 294 Alabama St. W 94-66 94%     19.3   4 - 0 +17.4 +12.9 +4.1
  Fri, Nov 21 167 UC Davis W 95-79 83%     5.9   5 - 0 +12.4 +20.5 -8.1
  Thu, Nov 27 97 San Francisco W 79-69 54%     1.5   6 - 0 +15.7 +10.6 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 28 49 Washington W 81-68 34%     9.3   7 - 0 +23.8 +15.6 +8.5
  Mon, Dec 1 142 California Baptist W 78-70 79%     -2.2   8 - 0 +5.9 +7.5 -1.4
  Sat, Dec 6 100 @Colorado St. L 86-91 43%     -4.0   8 - 1 +3.4 +16.5 -13.3
  Sat, Dec 13 302 Texas San Antonio W 88-64 94%     9.6   9 - 1 +12.8 +8.9 +3.1
  Wed, Dec 17 172 Portland St. W 84-73 83%     1.4   10 - 1 +7.3 +10.8 -3.8
  Sat, Dec 20 90 Stanford L 68-77 51%     -3.1   10 - 2 -2.8 -0.8 -1.9
  Sun, Dec 28 164 Northern Colorado L 81-86 83%     -2.0   10 - 3 -8.4 +1.6 -9.8
  Sat, Jan 3 70 @Arizona St. L 78-82 34%    
  Wed, Jan 7 113 Utah W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Jan 10 23 Texas Tech L 76-82 28%    
  Wed, Jan 14 58 @Cincinnati L 72-78 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 64 @West Virginia L 70-75 32%    
  Tue, Jan 20 16 Kansas L 71-79 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 52 Central Florida L 82-83 47%    
  Thu, Jan 29 4 @Iowa St. L 70-89 4%    
  Sun, Feb 1 48 TCU L 75-76 45%    
  Wed, Feb 4 27 @Baylor L 78-89 15%    
  Sat, Feb 7 70 Arizona St. W 81-79 54%    
  Wed, Feb 11 23 @Texas Tech L 73-85 13%    
  Sat, Feb 14 10 @BYU L 72-88 7%    
  Sat, Feb 21 56 Oklahoma St. W 86-85 49%    
  Wed, Feb 25 69 Kansas St. W 86-84 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 11 @Houston L 64-80 7%    
  Tue, Mar 3 113 @Utah W 81-80 50%    
  Sat, Mar 7 2 Arizona L 74-88 10%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.0 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.4 2.4 2.5 0.3 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 1.2 5.2 2.1 0.1 8.5 10th
11th 0.5 4.6 4.8 0.5 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.1 3.2 6.7 1.6 0.1 11.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.7 6.9 3.8 0.3 12.7 13th
14th 0.0 1.3 5.7 5.4 0.7 0.0 13.1 14th
15th 0.0 1.2 4.5 5.3 1.3 0.0 12.3 15th
16th 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.5 1.2 0.1 10.3 16th
Total 0.2 1.7 4.8 9.3 13.9 17.4 17.1 14.5 9.6 6.4 3.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 90.4% 90.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 90.4%
11-7 1.3% 74.2% 0.8% 73.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 74.0%
10-8 3.2% 50.8% 50.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.6 50.8%
9-9 6.4% 26.3% 26.3% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.0 4.7 26.3%
8-10 9.6% 6.0% 6.0% 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 9.0 6.0%
7-11 14.5% 0.9% 0.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 14.4 0.9%
6-12 17.1% 17.1
5-13 17.4% 17.4
4-14 13.9% 13.9
3-15 9.3% 9.3
2-16 4.8% 4.8
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.6% 0.0% 5.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.3 0.1 94.4 5.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%