Colorado
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #83
Expected Predictive Rating +6.8 #80
Pace 70.8 #131
Improvement -2.0 #276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 B C B+ B C+
Defense #137 C C+ C- C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #35 1.27 #68 +6.2 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.85 #55 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 35% #303 1.09 #73 -1.5 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #46 +5.4 #47
Freethrows 0.33 #84 77% #27 0.26 #42
Second Chance 31.4% #157 0.99 #225 0.31 #178
Turnovers 13.6% #27
Total Offense +5.8 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #177 1.11 #114 +0.7 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #55 0.81 #279 -2.3 #335
Three Pointers 36% #309 1.03 #210 +2.2 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #158 +0.6 #156
Freethrows 0.30 #170 71% #102 0.21 #151
Second Chance 27.7% #76 1.06 #228 0.29 #124
Turnovers 15.8% #231
Total Defense +0.9 #137

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #117 -1.1% #88
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.5% #48 -0.1% #182
Possession Length 16.0 #64 17.7 #258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #17 0.15 #106
Improvement -3.2 #333 +1.2 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 40.9% 60.1% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 1.9% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 7.1% 22.0%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 10
Quad 24 - 55 - 15
Quad 35 - 011 - 16
Quad 45 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 166 Montana St. W 84 - 78 83% +1  1 - 0 +2 +11 B+ C B -8 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 246 Eastern Washington W 102 - 97 OT 91% +1  2 - 0 -3 +12 B D A -16 F A F+
 Fri, Nov 14 67 Providence W 97 - 88 56% +4  3 - 0 +14 +11 B- A B- +2 A- A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 17 322 Alabama St. W 94 - 66 96% +19  4 - 0 +15 +14 B+ C B+ +1 B C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 189 UC Davis W 95 - 79 86% +6  5 - 0 +11 +20 A+ C+ A- -9 C F C-
 Thu, Nov 27 97 San Francisco W 79 - 69 56% +1  6 - 0 +15 +10 A- C B+ +6 C+ B B
 Fri, Nov 28 41 Washington W 81 - 68 30% +9  7 - 0 +25 +15 A A- C +10 A+ B- F
 Mon, Dec 1 132 California Baptist W 78 - 70 78% -2  8 - 0 +7 +8 B B C+ -1 B B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 103 @Colorado St. L 86 - 91 47% -4  8 - 1 +3 +18 A+ D+ A+ -15 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 343 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 64 97% +10  9 - 1 +9 +6 A+ F C+ +3 C C A-
 Wed, Dec 17 150 Portland St. W 84 - 73 81% +1  10 - 1 +9 +13 B+ C B -5 B F C-
 Sat, Dec 20 88 Stanford L 68 - 77 51% -3  10 - 2 -3 -2 C+ C F -1 A- C- D
 Sun, Dec 28 193 Northern Colorado L 81 - 86 87% -2  10 - 3 -10 +0 D C- A+ -10 D- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 76 @Arizona St. W 95 - 89 35% +6  11 - 3 1 - 0 +17 +13 B B- B- +3 B+ B+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 104 Utah W 85 - 73 70% +6  12 - 3 2 - 0 +13 +10 B- C+ C +3 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 18 Texas Tech L 71 - 73 23% -9  12 - 4 2 - 1 +13 +5 C D+ A+ +8 A- A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 53 @Cincinnati L 68 - 77 27% -13  12 - 5 2 - 2 +4 +4 B B- F+ +0 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 58 @West Virginia L 61 - 72 29% -6  12 - 6 2 - 3 +1 +8 C- C- A+ -9 C- F C
 Tue, Jan 20 15 Kansas L 69 - 75 20% -4  12 - 7 2 - 4 +9 +7 C- B+ A+ +3 B+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 48 Central Florida L 86 - 95 43% -3  12 - 8 2 - 5 -0 +15 A+ D A+ -16 F A B-
 Thu, Jan 29 5 @Iowa St. L 67 - 97 6% -22  12 - 9 2 - 6 -6 +8 B- F+ A+ -15 F C- D+
 Sun, Feb 1 47 TCU L 75 - 77 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 44 @Baylor L 76 - 84 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 76 Arizona St. W 83 - 81 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 18 @Texas Tech L 73 - 87 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 14 @BYU L 75 - 90 8%
 Sat, Feb 21 56 Oklahoma St. W 85 - 84 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 85 Kansas St. W 84 - 81 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 4 @Houston L 65 - 83 5%
 Tue, Mar 3 104 @Utah L 81 - 82 47%
 Sat, Mar 7 2 Arizona L 74 - 89 9%
Totals 15 - 16 5 - 13 +7 +6 B C B+ +1 C C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 2.7 5.4 1.0 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 1.2 8.6 3.2 0.1 13.0 11th
12th 0.2 7.4 8.0 0.6 16.2 12th
13th 0.0 3.8 12.8 2.7 0.1 19.4 13th
14th 1.5 11.2 5.2 0.2 18.1 14th
15th 0.4 5.1 5.7 0.5 11.7 15th
16th 1.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 5.8 16th
Total 2.3 9.9 21.6 27.1 22.4 11.7 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 62.5% 62.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.5%
9-9 0.8% 33.5% 33.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 33.5%
8-10 4.1% 7.8% 0.1% 7.6% 10.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 7.6%
7-11 11.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 11.6 0.8%
6-12 22.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 22.4 0.0%
5-13 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 27.1
4-14 21.6% 21.6
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 10.6 99.2 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%