BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.4 21
Expected Predictive Rating +17.4 23
Pace 73.7 48
Improvement -5.9 351

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 9 B+ A B+ B- D+
Defense B 43 A- C+ C A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 319 A 69% 7 +0.8 147
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 198 B+ 44% 40 +2.3 65
Three Pointers 44% 130 B 37% 59 +3.3 74
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 276 A- +7.0 14
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 30
Second Chance B+ 37.2% 22 B+ 1.18 28 A 0.44 15
Turnovers B+ 13.9% 31
Freethrows B- 0.33 104 B- 75% 83 B- 0.25 80
Total Offense A +11.7 9

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 44% 266 A 5.8% 4
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 220 C 5.5% 216
Three Pointers B 89% 69 C- 1.1% 224
Total C- 54% 214 A- 3.6% 17

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% 361 C+ 57% 145 -7.1 12
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 6 B 35% 63 +3.1 353
Three Pointers 41% 163 B+ 30% 36 -2.1 91
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.2 4 B -4.0 44
1st FG Attempt A- 0.90 32
Second Chance B+ 25.6% 32 D 1.12 301 C+ 0.29 100
Turnovers C 16.9% 175
Freethrows A- 0.24 18 B+ 69% 37 A- 0.16 15
Total Defense B +5.7 43

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 121 B 15.2% 53
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 308 A 10.1% 14
Three Pointers B- 80% 78 B 1.8% 45
Total C+ 53% 124 B+ 8.0% 39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.2 21 18.4 327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 22 0.13 57
Improvement -0.3 #204 -5.6 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 28 21 13
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 9 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed 9 6 3
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Elite 8

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 1% 2% 0%
Top 4 Seed 17% 28% 7%
Top 6 Seed 70% 86% 56%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99% 100% 99%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99% 100% 99%
Average Seed 5.8 5.2 6.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 93% 99% 88%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round99% 100% 99%
Second Round77% 83% 72%
Sweet Sixteen33% 40% 28%
Elite Eight12% 15% 10%
Final Four5% 6% 4%
Championship Game2% 2% 1%
National Champion1% 1% 0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Home) - 44.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b6 - 18 - 9
Quad 27 - 114 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 31 Villanova W 71 - 66 60% +6  88% 1 - 0 A +20 B- +4 C- D+ A+ A+ +16 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 326 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99% +28  99% 2 - 0 A+ +31 A +13 A+ F A+ A+ +17 A+ C- A
 Tue, Nov 11 263 Delaware W 85 - 68 98% -0  36% 3 - 0 B +8 A+ +18 C A+ B+ D- -7 C- C F
 Sat, Nov 15 9 Connecticut L 84 - 86 41% -9  10% 3 - 1 A- +18 A +13 A+ A+ C+ B +5 F C+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 29 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 59% +13  92% 4 - 1 A+ +43 A+ +22 A A A+ A+ +20 A+ A- A-
 Thu, Nov 27 40 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 66% +3  54% 5 - 1 A+ +23 B- +4 B C+ C+ A+ +19 A+ B- D+
 Fri, Nov 28 88 Dayton W 83 - 79 85% -0  40% 6 - 1 B +10 B +7 A- C+ B B- +3 D+ B+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 139 California Baptist W 91 - 60 93% +18  98% 7 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +20 A A+ B A+ +13 A+ A B
 Tue, Dec 9 38 Clemson W 67 - 64 65% -5  20% 8 - 1 A- +17 A- +10 D- A+ A- B+ +6 A+ C- A
 Sat, Dec 13 279 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99% +22  96% 9 - 1 A+ +37 A +14 A+ D+ B- A+ +20 A+ C A
 Tue, Dec 16 127 Pacific W 93 - 57 94% +18  99% 10 - 1 A+ +35 A+ +16 B A+ B A+ +19 A+ D A
 Fri, Dec 19 243 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 98% +5  67% 11 - 1 B +11 B+ +8 B A+ D B- +3 A- F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 201 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 97% +10  92% 12 - 1 A +23 A+ +21 A A+ A C +0 B F C
 Sat, Jan 3 92 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 78% +6  85% 13 - 1 1 - 0 A +19 C+ +3 C A- F A+ +15 A A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 63 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 86% +17  94% 14 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +20 A+ B- C A+ +11 A+ B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 102 @Utah W 89 - 84 81% +4  78% 15 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +13 A +12 C+ A+ C C+ +1 A- F+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 50 TCU W 76 - 70 82% -0  35% 16 - 1 4 - 0 B+ +14 B +7 F A+ A+ A- +7 A- A- D
 Sat, Jan 17 18 @Texas Tech L 71 - 84 35% -1  33% 16 - 2 4 - 1 B +8 B- +5 C B+ C+ B- +3 B+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 102 Utah W 91 - 78 92% +6  91% 17 - 2 5 - 1 A- +15 A+ +23 B+ A+ B+ D- -7 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 3 Arizona L 83 - 86 36% -8  13% 17 - 3 5 - 2 A +18 A +13 A A- B+ B+ +5 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 15 @Kansas L 82 - 90 33% -13  2% 17 - 4 5 - 3 B+ +14 A+ +20 A+ A- A D -6 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 62 @Oklahoma St. L 92 - 99 70% -5  8% 17 - 5 5 - 4 B- +5 A +11 A+ B- D D -6 D- F+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 6 Houston L 66 - 77 42% -5  5% 17 - 6 5 - 5 B +8 A +12 B C+ A+ D -6 B F+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 47 @Baylor W 99 - 94 61% +2  53% 18 - 6 6 - 5 A +19 A+ +23 A+ A+ A+ D+ -4 D B- B+
 Sat, Feb 14 72 Colorado W 90 - 86 OT 87% +2  66% 19 - 6 7 - 5 B +9 C+ +2 A- F D- A- +7 B+ A F
 Wed, Feb 18 3 @Arizona L 68 - 75 18% -6  12% 19 - 7 7 - 6 A +20 A- +11 A C A A +9 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 7 Iowa St. L 79 - 80 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 52 Central Florida W 90 - 80 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 55 @West Virginia W 73 - 69 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 46 @Cincinnati W 77 - 74 61%
 Sat, Mar 7 18 Texas Tech W 81 - 79 57%
Totals 22 - 9 10 - 8 +17 A +12 C+ A- D+ B +6 B B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A B+ B A- 33% 36% 44% D+ B+ B+ B+ A B+ B- B- B- B C+ B B+ B 27% 32% 41% A+ A- B+ D C+ C A- B+ A-
1.25 69% 44% 37% +7 -1 1.15 37% 1.2 .44 14% .33 75% .25 1.00 57% 35% 30% -4 -2 0.90 26% 1.1 .29 17% .24 69% .23
Nov
3		 Villanova B- C- F D+ D+ 51% 20% 29% A- C- C- D D+ A+ A D+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B A+ C F F B- B A+ A
1.04 54% 27% 31% -6 +1 0.93 27% 0.8 .23 6% .33 67% .22 0.97 33% 22% 18% -23 0 0.56 35% 1.8 .65 16% .26 53% .14
Nov
8		 Holy Cross A A+ A+ F+ A+ 47% 13% 40% B A+ F F F A+ D+ A C A+ B D+ A+ A 4% 58% 38% A+ A+ C- D+ C- A A B- A
1.36 93% 75% 29% +18 +2 1.42 16% 0.5 .08 8% .24 81% .20 0.74 50% 43% 15% -8 -7 0.71 22% 1.0 .22 21% .19 73% .14
Nov
11		 Delaware A+ D B+ B- C 31% 18% 51% B- C A+ A A+ B+ C A B- D- B+ B F D 27% 29% 44% A C- C C+ C F A C- A-
1.40 53% 44% 36% +1 0 1.04 51% 1.2 .62 12% .28 87% .24 1.12 50% 33% 48% +6 -2 1.10 21% 0.9 .18 8% .16 78% .13
Nov
15		 Connecticut A B+ A+ D+ A+ 41% 12% 47% A- A+ A- A+ A+ C+ B A- A- B D C F F 50% 15% 35% D+ F A+ F C+ A F B F
1.13 60% 67% 30% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.4 .47 19% .38 78% .30 1.16 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.35 28% 1.4 .40 22% .46 67% .31
Nov
21		 Wisconsin A+ D- A+ A A 27% 15% 58% B A B+ A+ A A+ A+ B A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 20% 26% 54% A+ A+ A- B- A- A- F A+ C-
1.31 47% 63% 41% +6 0 1.15 30% 1.3 .38 11% .44 76% .33 0.94 82% 21% 24% -7 -2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .42 65% .27
Nov
27		 Miami (FL) B- F C A+ B 43% 23% 34% B- B B- D+ C+ C+ A+ D+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 51% 15% 34% D+ A+ A D- B- D+ B+ A+ A+
1.05 45% 36% 50% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 19% .36 65% .23 0.90 41% 38% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.2 .38 15% .29 41% .12
Nov
28		 Dayton B B- B A+ A 38% 23% 40% C+ A- F A+ C+ B C A+ B B- C+ A F D 30% 16% 54% A- D+ A D B+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.11 60% 42% 43% +7 0 1.15 17% 1.8 .31 20% .30 83% .25 1.06 59% 22% 42% +4 0 1.11 21% 1.3 .26 19% .23 43% .10
Dec
3		 California Baptist A+ A A- B- A 38% 20% 42% C A A+ A+ A+ B F A- D- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 46% 17% 37% C- A+ B A+ A B D C- D
1.31 67% 45% 35% +5 0 1.13 42% 1.6 .68 13% .23 79% .18 0.87 38% 11% 32% -15 +1 0.73 34% 0.6 .22 20% .34 74% .25
Dec
9		 Clemson A- B- D F D- 36% 28% 36% C D- A+ A+ A+ A- C- A+ B- B+ B+ C+ A- A+ 34% 11% 55% C+ A+ F A+ C- A B F C-
1.10 59% 31% 18% -11 -1 0.79 43% 1.4 .59 15% .27 86% .23 1.05 53% 40% 29% -5 +1 0.93 46% 0.7 .32 20% .31 87% .27
Dec
13		 UC Riverside A A+ B+ A+ A+ 35% 31% 35% F A+ B F D+ B- A- F D A+ B+ A- B+ A 19% 37% 44% A+ A+ A+ F C A A+ A+ A+
1.33 95% 47% 47% +22 -2 1.44 36% 0.7 .25 13% .40 50% .20 0.70 50% 30% 29% -8 -4 0.80 17% 1.3 .22 24% .09 20% .02
Dec
16		 Pacific A+ A+ D B- A- 22% 33% 45% D- B A+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 36% 42% A+ A+ A- F D A A+ A+ A+
1.30 83% 33% 36% +5 -3 1.07 38% 1.2 .47 13% .43 89% .38 0.80 67% 26% 23% -9 -3 0.77 28% 1.5 .40 25% .06 0% .00
Dec
19		 Abilene Christian B+ A A+ D+ A 30% 30% 41% F B B- A+ A+ D A+ C A+ B- F A- A+ C+ 19% 52% 29% A+ A- C F F B- B+ F D+
1.19 73% 64% 33% +12 -2 1.22 30% 2.3 .70 25% .75 73% .54 0.94 89% 28% 21% -5 -5 0.81 33% 1.3 .42 22% .27 93% .25
Dec
22		 Eastern Washington A+ A+ D B+ A 25% 13% 62% D A A A+ A+ A D+ A+ C C F+ F A C- 11% 40% 49% A+ B C+ F F C A+ C- A
1.45 93% 38% 38% +12 0 1.27 43% 1.4 .60 12% .30 85% .26 1.08 67% 52% 29% +3 -5 0.98 29% 1.5 .45 19% .20 75% .15
Jan
3		 Kansas St. C+ F B+ B+ C+ 33% 31% 37% D- C B+ B- A- F A+ D- A+ A+ C- C- A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F+ A A A+ A+ C- D+ C- D+
1.07 41% 44% 37% -2 -2 0.94 40% 1.3 .50 24% .46 67% .31 0.94 64% 38% 12% -7 +2 0.93 26% 0.6 .17 15% .29 74% .21
Jan
7		 Arizona St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 19% 51% C A+ B+ D+ B- C A+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 37% 36% A+ A+ F A+ B+ A- A- B A
1.34 88% 50% 48% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 21% .41 80% .32 0.98 81% 18% 24% -7 -3 0.83 41% 0.8 .33 19% .29 72% .21
Jan
10		 Utah A B+ A+ F C 46% 11% 43% B+ C+ A+ A- A+ C A+ D A+ C+ C D+ A B+ 39% 30% 30% A A- B- F F+ D- C- F D-
1.21 64% 67% 22% -2 +2 1.02 41% 1.2 .49 15% .46 66% .30 1.14 59% 41% 29% -1 -1 0.98 29% 1.4 .40 12% .33 86% .28
Jan
14		 TCU B C F F F 25% 37% 38% F F A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ B- B 20% 33% 46% A+ A- A+ D- A- D B B+ B+
1.09 54% 26% 15% -16 -3 0.63 44% 1.1 .50 13% .48 79% .38 1.00 82% 22% 32% -2 -3 0.93 23% 1.2 .28 13% .30 67% .20
Jan
17		 Texas Tech B- A D F C+ 30% 33% 37% C- C B+ B- B+ C+ D+ A+ B- B- C+ C+ C- A- 33% 20% 47% C- B+ B+ D+ B- C- F F F
1.01 69% 33% 25% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 17% .24 86% .21 1.20 59% 40% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.1 .33 14% .38 83% .32
Jan
24		 Utah A+ A+ F A+ A 27% 35% 37% F B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D- F B F F 13% 50% 37% A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.41 79% 28% 42% +7 -3 1.10 44% 1.4 .59 12% .41 83% .34 1.21 71% 33% 65% +17 -6 1.24 19% 0.3 .06 9% .19 100% .19
Jan
26		 Arizona A B C- A+ A+ 11% 43% 46% F A A B- A- B+ B+ D- B- B+ F F A- C- 36% 43% 21% A+ C+ A+ B A+ B F F F
1.10 57% 35% 43% +5 -5 1.02 33% 0.9 .29 16% .30 63% .19 1.14 76% 50% 30% +10 -3 1.17 25% 0.9 .21 17% .51 81% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Kansas A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 21% 26% 53% D A+ B A A- A B+ C- B D C- F F F 32% 26% 42% B+ F A+ F A+ F D- A+ C+
1.18 67% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 10% .27 65% .18 1.30 65% 50% 50% +15 -1 1.30 14% 1.8 .24 9% .38 63% .24
Feb
4		 Oklahoma St. A C- A+ A+ A+ 43% 8% 48% B+ A+ B D+ B- D C B+ C+ D F B- B D- 55% 11% 35% D+ D- C F F+ F F A+ F+
1.18 54% 60% 45% +8 +2 1.22 33% 1.0 .33 20% .27 76% .21 1.27 73% 33% 32% +7 +2 1.20 31% 1.3 .41 10% .48 65% .31
Feb
7		 Houston A A+ C+ C- A- 16% 40% 44% F B B+ D C+ A+ A+ F A+ D F B F+ C 16% 53% 31% A+ B C+ F F+ F C- D+ C-
1.12 71% 35% 32% 0 -4 0.93 34% 0.8 .27 10% .53 57% .30 1.31 88% 35% 40% +6 -6 1.02 37% 1.3 .49 7% .27 80% .22
Feb
10		 Baylor A+ A+ A+ F A+ 12% 59% 29% F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ F F F F 2% 62% 36% A+ D B- C+ B- B+ F F+ F
1.34 100% 68% 18% +15 -7 1.19 35% 1.3 .47 7% .36 80% .29 1.27 100% 52% 47% +16 -8 1.19 36% 1.1 .39 18% .41 80% .33
Feb
14		 Colorado C+ B+ F A+ A 30% 32% 39% D- A- D F F D- A+ A- A+ A- F+ D A B- 25% 33% 42% A+ B+ A+ D+ A F A A+ A+
1.10 65% 28% 50% +8 -2 1.14 21% 0.8 .16 19% .41 78% .32 1.05 71% 45% 29% +2 -2 1.01 19% 1.0 .19 9% .24 61% .15
Feb
18		 Arizona A- A+ A+ D- A+ 24% 41% 35% D- A C+ C- C A B A+ A- A B+ C F B+ 29% 36% 35% A+ A- A- C+ B+ C- A+ A A+
1.03 67% 48% 28% +3 -4 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 14% .28 81% .23 1.13 56% 40% 42% +4 -3 1.05 34% 0.9 .31 14% .21 67% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.5 7.2 6.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.6 22.7 20.0 0.3 45.7 6th
7th 0.3 10.4 10.0 0.3 20.9 7th
8th 2.0 7.2 0.4 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 3.4 1.2 4.7 9th
10th 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.8 6.5 21.4 33.7 27.8 9.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 9.8% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 3.9 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 27.8% 100.0% 4.3% 95.6% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.5 11.1 8.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 33.7% 99.8% 3.1% 96.7% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.8 8.1 14.4 7.7 1.2 0.1 0.1 99.8%
9-9 21.4% 99.3% 2.3% 97.0% 6.8 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.2 8.1 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.2 99.3%
8-10 6.5% 94.8% 2.0% 92.8% 8.3 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.3 94.7%
7-11 0.8% 76.0% 0.9% 75.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 75.8%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.2% 3.4% 95.8% 5.8 0.8 99.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.2 14.4 54.5 26.3 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 3.2 2.2 15.4 46.9 31.5 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 100.0% 3.6 0.7 7.8 39.7 38.4 12.7 0.8
Lose Out 0.2% 58.5% 10.4 6.2 20.0 32.3