BYU
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+20.6#3
Pace68.8#197
Improvement+1.5#61

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#18
First Shot+4.3#59
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#13
Layup/Dunks+3.4#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#322
Freethrows+2.5#37
Improvement+1.2#67

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#37
First Shot+3.5#69
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#37
Layups/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#27
Freethrows+1.0#130
Improvement+0.3#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
#1 Seed 6.7% 7.3% 3.1%
Top 2 Seed 15.2% 16.6% 8.1%
Top 4 Seed 35.6% 38.2% 21.8%
Top 6 Seed 55.6% 58.7% 39.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.0% 94.1% 86.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.3% 92.6% 84.5%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.8
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.1% 96.4%
Conference Champion 20.1% 21.1% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 3.2% 7.0%
First Round91.2% 92.6% 83.6%
Second Round64.0% 65.9% 53.5%
Sweet Sixteen32.9% 34.7% 23.5%
Elite Eight15.6% 16.7% 9.8%
Final Four7.6% 8.3% 4.3%
Championship Game3.5% 3.8% 1.4%
National Champion1.6% 1.8% 0.8%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 4
Quad 26 - 210 - 5
Quad 37 - 117 - 6
Quad 46 - 023 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 167   Cleveland St. W 69-59 94%     1 - 0 +7.0 +2.0 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2021 49   San Diego St. W 66-60 78%     2 - 0 +12.3 +2.4 +10.2
  Nov 16, 2021 45   Oregon W 81-49 67%     3 - 0 +42.0 +17.9 +26.1
  Nov 24, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 81-64 95%     4 - 0 +12.2 +4.3 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2021 56   @ Utah W 75-64 63%     5 - 0 +22.0 +13.7 +9.3
  Dec 01, 2021 151   @ Utah Valley W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 04, 2021 93   @ Missouri St. W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 08, 2021 46   Utah St. W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 83   Creighton W 76-68 78%    
  Dec 18, 2021 98   @ Weber St. W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 22, 2021 224   South Florida W 69-52 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 255   @ Portland W 80-64 93%    
  Jan 06, 2022 189   Pacific W 78-59 95%    
  Jan 08, 2022 41   St. Mary's W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 13, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 74-84 18%    
  Jan 15, 2022 50   @ San Francisco W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 20, 2022 154   @ San Diego W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 255   Portland W 83-61 98%    
  Jan 27, 2022 79   @ Santa Clara W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 189   @ Pacific W 75-62 86%    
  Feb 03, 2022 50   San Francisco W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 77-81 35%    
  Feb 10, 2022 129   @ Loyola Marymount W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 236   @ Pepperdine W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 19, 2022 41   @ St. Mary's W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 24, 2022 129   Loyola Marymount W 79-64 91%    
  Feb 26, 2022 236   Pepperdine W 82-61 97%    
Projected Record 22 - 5 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.8 7.9 6.2 1.6 20.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 7.1 15.1 14.3 6.3 44.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.0 9.2 4.6 0.5 20.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.1 3.9 1.3 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.4 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.7 6.1 10.5 17.7 20.4 18.6 14.1 6.2 1.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-1 100.0% 6.2    4.6 1.6
14-2 55.6% 7.9    3.9 3.9 0.1
13-3 20.4% 3.8    1.1 2.1 0.5 0.0
12-4 3.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
11-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 11.2 7.8 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.6% 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-1 6.2% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.9 2.7 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-2 14.1% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 2.8 2.4 4.1 3.3 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-3 18.6% 99.8% 24.4% 75.4% 4.4 0.5 1.6 3.2 5.5 3.8 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.8%
12-4 20.4% 98.9% 17.1% 81.7% 6.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.2 4.1 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.6%
11-5 17.7% 96.2% 13.4% 82.8% 7.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.7 95.6%
10-6 10.5% 86.7% 9.0% 77.7% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.5 1.5 0.3 1.4 85.4%
9-7 6.1% 72.2% 6.4% 65.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 1.7 70.3%
8-8 2.7% 55.9% 3.3% 52.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.2 54.4%
7-9 1.5% 22.1% 2.8% 19.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1 19.9%
6-10 0.5% 4.0% 4.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.0%
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 93.0% 19.5% 73.5% 5.8 6.7 8.6 8.6 11.8 10.7 9.3 8.3 7.9 8.1 6.9 5.0 1.2 0.0 7.0 91.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 60.0 36.7 3.3