Cincinnati
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#25
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#50
Pace66.2#265
Improvement-2.0#306

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#35
First Shot+3.4#88
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#37
Layup/Dunks+11.8#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#138
Freethrows-7.9#364
Improvement-1.7#303

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#17
First Shot+7.7#12
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#220
Layups/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#44
Freethrows+3.0#31
Improvement-0.3#207
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 7.1% 7.2% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 22.0% 22.1% 6.8%
Top 6 Seed 39.6% 39.9% 16.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.1% 78.4% 55.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.5% 76.8% 53.2%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 95.4% 95.6% 80.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 76.1% 61.1%
Conference Champion 7.8% 7.9% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.1% 2.4%
First Four4.9% 4.8% 6.5%
First Round75.9% 76.2% 52.7%
Second Round52.0% 52.2% 30.6%
Sweet Sixteen24.7% 24.9% 11.9%
Elite Eight11.3% 11.4% 4.6%
Final Four5.1% 5.1% 2.4%
Championship Game2.1% 2.1% 0.6%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.3%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 8
Quad 27 - 313 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 109-54 99.5%    1 - 0 +34.6 +16.6 +14.5
  Nov 08, 2024 266   Morehead St. W 83-56 97%     2 - 0 +18.1 +16.1 +5.3
  Nov 15, 2024 223   Nicholls St. W 86-49 96%     3 - 0 +30.6 +16.7 +16.5
  Nov 19, 2024 216   @ Northern Kentucky W 76-60 89%     4 - 0 +16.3 +10.9 +6.6
  Nov 23, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech W 81-58 76%     5 - 0 +29.6 +11.4 +18.3
  Nov 27, 2024 285   Alabama St. W 77-59 97%     6 - 0 +8.5 -0.4 +8.9
  Dec 03, 2024 56   @ Villanova L 60-68 55%     6 - 1 +4.6 +3.8 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 284   Howard W 83-60 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 68   Xavier W 76-68 78%    
  Dec 20, 2024 46   Dayton W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 22, 2024 226   Grambling St. W 78-57 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 59   @ Kansas St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 23   Arizona W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 07, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 7   Kansas L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 15, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 51   Arizona St. W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 49   @ BYU W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 60   @ Utah W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 02, 2025 45   West Virginia W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 83   @ Central Florida W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 49   BYU W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 11, 2025 60   Utah W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 19, 2025 45   @ West Virginia W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 78   TCU W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 25, 2025 13   Baylor W 73-71 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   @ Houston L 62-69 26%    
  Mar 05, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 74-66 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 81   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-71 65%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.7 1.0 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.9 1.3 0.1 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.2 6.4 8.6 10.8 12.2 12.9 11.9 10.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 97.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 91.7% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 74.6% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 43.2% 2.3    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 15.9% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 4.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.0% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.2 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.4% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.9 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 7.9% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 3.8 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.3% 99.8% 10.9% 88.9% 4.9 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 11.9% 99.3% 8.0% 91.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 12.9% 97.0% 4.9% 92.1% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 3.0 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 96.8%
11-9 12.2% 90.9% 2.6% 88.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 1.1 90.6%
10-10 10.8% 78.7% 1.5% 77.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.0 2.3 78.4%
9-11 8.6% 50.2% 1.4% 48.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.1 4.3 49.5%
8-12 6.4% 24.6% 0.7% 23.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.2 4.8 24.0%
7-13 4.2% 5.5% 0.6% 5.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 5.0%
6-14 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.6%
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 78.1% 6.8% 71.4% 6.4 2.7 4.5 6.6 8.2 8.4 9.3 9.4 9.2 8.1 6.4 5.0 0.4 0.0 21.9 76.5%