Utah
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#60
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#85
Pace73.2#71
Improvement-1.9#302

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#60
First Shot+1.4#139
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#25
Layup/Dunks-0.1#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#66
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement-1.2#272

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#72
First Shot+4.2#63
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#195
Layups/Dunks+3.6#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#173
Freethrows-0.9#250
Improvement-0.7#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 2.3% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 4.8% 7.0% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 38.1% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.9% 37.2% 19.3%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 8.9
.500 or above 70.4% 81.0% 58.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.0% 41.1% 28.1%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 7.0% 12.2%
First Four5.1% 5.9% 4.3%
First Round26.9% 35.0% 17.6%
Second Round13.6% 17.8% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 5.5% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.4% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 53.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 10
Quad 25 - 48 - 14
Quad 32 - 010 - 15
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 100-59 98%     1 - 0 +25.3 +25.1 +2.5
  Nov 07, 2024 337   Central Arkansas W 98-63 97%     2 - 0 +21.7 +11.1 +7.4
  Nov 12, 2024 290   Queens W 96-65 95%     3 - 0 +21.3 +10.6 +8.1
  Nov 17, 2024 15   Mississippi St. L 73-78 28%     3 - 1 +10.2 +4.7 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 291   Utah Tech W 84-53 95%     4 - 1 +21.2 -0.6 +19.1
  Nov 26, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 94-48 99%     5 - 1 +21.8 +18.2 +6.7
  Nov 30, 2024 239   Eastern Washington W 88-80 93%     6 - 1 +0.8 +9.2 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 42   St. Mary's W 70-69 53%    
  Dec 14, 2024 189   Radford W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 17, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 85-60 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 50   Iowa L 81-82 46%    
  Dec 31, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 71-80 20%    
  Jan 04, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 07, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 71-83 14%    
  Jan 11, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 78   @ TCU L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 49   BYU W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 21, 2025 6   @ Houston L 63-75 13%    
  Jan 25, 2025 13   Baylor L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 28, 2025 25   Cincinnati L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 81   @ Oklahoma St. L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 85   Colorado W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 45   @ West Virginia L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 11, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 7   Kansas L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 17, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 23, 2025 83   @ Central Florida L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 23   @ Arizona L 77-85 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 51   Arizona St. W 77-75 59%    
  Mar 04, 2025 45   West Virginia W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 49   @ BYU L 77-81 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.7 1.9 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.4 3.2 4.4 1.1 0.0 9.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 1.9 0.1 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.5 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.3 0.9 0.1 6.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 5.2 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.0 7.5 10.3 12.0 13.0 12.5 10.5 9.1 6.8 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 91.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 64.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 49.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.2% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.6% 99.2% 5.4% 93.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-7 4.1% 95.9% 4.5% 91.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 95.7%
12-8 6.8% 87.5% 2.1% 85.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.8 87.2%
11-9 9.1% 72.4% 1.5% 70.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.1 0.0 2.5 72.0%
10-10 10.5% 49.5% 1.0% 48.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.7 0.1 5.3 49.0%
9-11 12.5% 21.1% 0.5% 20.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.2 9.9 20.7%
8-12 13.0% 5.2% 0.3% 4.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.4 5.0%
7-13 12.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9 0.5%
6-14 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 10.3 0.0%
5-15 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 7.5
4-16 5.0% 5.0
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 29.6% 1.0% 28.6% 8.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.5 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.2 0.5 0.0 70.4 28.9%