Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#40
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#109
Pace74.0#69
Improvement-3.7#347

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#111
First Shot+2.4#108
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#212
Layup/Dunks+7.1#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#303
Freethrows+0.6#145
Improvement-1.0#270

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#8
First Shot+8.2#15
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks+4.8#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#76
Freethrows-1.5#280
Improvement-2.6#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 5.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 13.1% 14.2% 5.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.3% 41.7% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.5% 39.8% 21.3%
Average Seed 7.8 7.7 8.5
.500 or above 50.5% 53.6% 28.3%
.500 or above in Conference 39.2% 40.6% 29.0%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.2% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 10.2% 16.1%
First Four5.9% 6.0% 5.1%
First Round36.7% 38.9% 20.5%
Second Round20.6% 22.1% 10.3%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 8.4% 3.4%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.1% 1.1%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 12
Quad 24 - 39 - 15
Quad 33 - 112 - 16
Quad 44 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 234   Texas Arlington W 88-45 93%     1 - 0 +36.3 +11.8 +23.3
  Nov 12, 2021 114   Oakland L 55-56 82%     1 - 1 -0.4 -14.5 +14.1
  Nov 14, 2021 249   Prairie View W 72-59 94%     2 - 1 +5.5 -11.5 +15.8
  Nov 16, 2021 225   Umass Lowell W 80-58 88%     3 - 1 +19.4 +4.3 +14.4
  Nov 17, 2021 74   North Carolina St. W 74-68 62%     4 - 1 +12.9 -0.8 +13.4
  Nov 22, 2021 185   College of Charleston W 96-66 90%     5 - 1 +26.1 +7.4 +14.5
  Nov 26, 2021 166   @ Oral Roberts W 78-77 OT 75%     6 - 1 +4.3 -4.1 +8.2
  Dec 01, 2021 54   Wichita St. L 51-60 67%     6 - 2 -3.5 -12.7 +8.7
  Dec 05, 2021 35   Xavier L 71-77 56%     6 - 3 +2.5 -1.9 +4.9
  Dec 13, 2021 154   Cleveland St. W 73-61 88%    
  Dec 18, 2021 4   Houston L 62-70 22%    
  Dec 21, 2021 14   USC L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 01, 2022 19   @ Texas Tech L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 04, 2022 6   Kansas L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 08, 2022 12   Texas L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 11, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 15, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 19, 2022 91   TCU W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 22, 2022 12   @ Texas L 60-69 22%    
  Jan 26, 2022 58   Iowa St. W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 29, 2022 30   @ Florida L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 02, 2022 64   @ Kansas St. L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 29   Oklahoma W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 08, 2022 91   @ TCU W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 12, 2022 43   West Virginia W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 14, 2022 6   @ Kansas L 69-80 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 64   Kansas St. W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 21, 2022 3   Baylor L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 29   @ Oklahoma L 65-70 33%    
  Mar 02, 2022 58   @ Iowa St. L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 19   Texas Tech L 68-69 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 13.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 7.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 5.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.0 8.9 12.3 14.3 14.3 12.8 10.3 7.3 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 96.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 84.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 58.2% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1
13-5 24.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.1% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 3.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.5% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.6% 99.9% 9.5% 90.4% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 7.3% 98.1% 5.8% 92.3% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
10-8 10.3% 90.6% 4.3% 86.3% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 90.1%
9-9 12.8% 67.1% 3.6% 63.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.2 65.8%
8-10 14.3% 29.4% 2.0% 27.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.1 28.0%
7-11 14.3% 7.4% 1.2% 6.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.3 6.3%
6-12 12.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.8%
5-13 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0%
4-14 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 39.3% 2.9% 36.4% 7.8 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.3 3.8 4.6 5.4 4.8 4.5 3.7 4.1 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 60.7 37.5%