Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#35
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#53
Pace69.6#133
Improvement+1.3#43

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#117
First Shot+0.8#155
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#90
Layup/Dunks+2.5#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
Freethrows+0.4#140
Improvement+0.3#131

Defense
Total Defense+10.0#7
First Shot+8.5#6
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#59
Layups/Dunks+5.7#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#59
Freethrows-0.3#218
Improvement+1.0#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.8% 4.8% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 14.1% 21.7% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.9% 65.4% 37.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.4% 62.7% 33.8%
Average Seed 8.0 7.6 8.8
.500 or above 84.6% 94.0% 74.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 55.2% 25.7%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.0% 4.7%
First Four7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
First Round48.3% 61.8% 34.3%
Second Round27.5% 36.8% 18.0%
Sweet Sixteen11.0% 15.0% 6.8%
Elite Eight4.6% 6.3% 2.8%
Final Four1.8% 2.5% 1.1%
Championship Game0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 11
Quad 23 - 29 - 13
Quad 33 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 274   Texas Arlington W 77-66 96%     1 - 0 +2.5 -5.5 +7.0
  Nov 10, 2022 130   Southern Illinois L 60-61 87%     1 - 1 -1.5 -7.6 +6.1
  Nov 13, 2022 249   @ Oakland W 91-62 90%     2 - 1 +27.0 +12.1 +13.9
  Nov 18, 2022 65   Central Florida L 56-60 OT 63%     2 - 2 +4.4 -14.2 +18.8
  Nov 20, 2022 124   DePaul W 82-78 81%     3 - 2 +6.5 +4.7 +1.7
  Nov 25, 2022 235   Tulsa W 82-56 95%     4 - 2 +19.5 +1.2 +17.0
  Nov 27, 2022 287   Prairie View W 78-53 97%     5 - 2 +15.6 +12.7 +5.4
  Dec 01, 2022 6   @ Connecticut L 64-74 22%     5 - 3 +10.0 +3.1 +6.5
  Dec 06, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. W 65-51 78%     6 - 3 +17.8 +7.1 +13.2
  Dec 11, 2022 49   Virginia Tech L 65-70 58%     6 - 4 +5.0 -2.5 +7.4
  Dec 17, 2022 109   Wichita St. W 59-49 78%     7 - 4 +13.7 -3.6 +18.3
  Dec 20, 2022 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 81-58 95%     8 - 4 +16.0 -1.5 +16.2
  Dec 31, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 67-69 24%     8 - 5 0 - 1 +17.4 +12.6 +4.5
  Jan 02, 2023 23   West Virginia W 67-60 54%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +17.8 +0.7 +17.3
  Jan 07, 2023 10   Texas L 46-56 46%     9 - 6 1 - 2 +3.1 -18.6 +21.0
  Jan 10, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. L 57-65 36%     9 - 7 1 - 3 +7.5 -8.2 +15.9
  Jan 14, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 58-74 30%     9 - 8 1 - 4 +1.5 -5.0 +5.3
  Jan 18, 2023 43   Oklahoma W 72-56 66%     10 - 8 2 - 4 +23.8 +3.0 +20.8
  Jan 21, 2023 22   Iowa St. W 61-59 54%     11 - 8 3 - 4 +13.0 +1.4 +11.8
  Jan 24, 2023 10   @ Texas L 75-89 26%     11 - 9 3 - 5 +4.5 +5.6 -0.2
  Jan 28, 2023 95   Mississippi W 82-60 82%     12 - 9 +24.3 +18.9 +7.4
  Feb 01, 2023 43   @ Oklahoma W 71-61 45%     13 - 9 4 - 5 +23.3 +5.5 +17.9
  Feb 04, 2023 15   TCU L 68-69 51%    
  Feb 08, 2023 53   Texas Tech W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 11, 2023 22   @ Iowa St. L 60-65 32%    
  Feb 14, 2023 7   Kansas L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 15   @ TCU L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 20, 2023 23   @ West Virginia L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 25, 2023 28   Kansas St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 27, 2023 14   Baylor L 70-71 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech L 66-67 46%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 2.5 0.2 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.5 0.9 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.7 4.1 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 7.6 9.7 0.9 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 12.1 14.2 3.2 0.0 32.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 6.4 6.5 1.5 0.0 15.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 10th
Total 0.6 3.7 11.1 19.8 24.1 20.9 12.8 5.4 1.5 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 76.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 33.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 4.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.5% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.4% 100.0% 9.8% 90.1% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.8% 98.7% 8.6% 90.1% 6.5 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 4.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.5%
9-9 20.9% 88.5% 7.4% 81.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 7.0 4.5 2.0 0.3 2.4 87.6%
8-10 24.1% 46.9% 6.4% 40.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.0 5.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 12.8 43.3%
7-11 19.8% 8.7% 5.2% 3.5% 12.1 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 18.1 3.7%
6-12 11.1% 4.5% 4.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.6
5-13 3.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.5
4-14 0.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 51.9% 6.6% 45.2% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 4.4 6.9 8.7 8.7 5.5 6.0 6.6 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 48.1 48.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.3 13.1 46.4 36.9 3.6
Lose Out 0.6% 4.5% 16.0 4.5