Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.5 18
Expected Predictive Rating +19.2 16
Pace 67.8 202
Improvement +2.5 89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 18 A- B- B D+ C-
Defense A- 19 A- B+ C+ B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 344 B 65% 50 -2.6 277
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 279 A- 46% 24 +1.5 92
Three Pointers 49% 32 A 41% 5 +9.1 6
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 257 A +8.4 6
1st FG Attempt A- 1.18 16
Second Chance B 35.5% 48 C 1.04 160 B- 0.37 66
Turnovers B 15.0% 72
Freethrows D 0.27 298 C+ 73% 161 D+ 0.20 280
Total Offense A- +10.0 18

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 53% 105 A 5.9% 7
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 40% 21 B 3.0% 55
Three Pointers D 79% 295 C- 1.0% 220
Total B- 61% 69 A 2.9% 4

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 342 B- 54% 83 -5.5 32
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 4 C+ 37% 145 +4.2 362
Three Pointers 37% 300 A- 29% 12 -5.1 13
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.0 7 B+ -4.4 39
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 25
Second Chance A- 24.7% 19 B 0.94 58 B+ 0.23 22
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 134
Freethrows B- 0.27 76 A 67% 9 B 0.18 43
Total Defense A- +8.4 19

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 36% 6 C+ 12.5% 109
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 103 B+ 8.4% 35
Three Pointers A 73% 8 D+ 0.4% 288
Total A 41% 3 B- 6.8% 87

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 125 18.0 286
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 236 0.09 8
Improvement -0.1 #189 +2.6 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 23 16 9
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 14 - 4
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed 7 5 2
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 2 Seed 6% 6% 2%
Top 4 Seed 49% 51% 27%
Top 6 Seed 95% 96% 86%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.5 4.4 5.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round89% 90% 83%
Sweet Sixteen49% 50% 39%
Elite Eight19% 19% 14%
Final Four8% 8% 6%
Championship Game3% 3% 2%
National Champion1% 1% 0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 10
Quad 37 - 020 - 10
Quad 43 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 260 Lindenwood W 98 - 60 99% +19  87% 1 - 0 A+ +29 A +12 B D+ A+ A+ +14 A A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 114 Sam Houston St. W 98 - 77 95% +8  80% 2 - 0 A +21 A+ +21 A- A+ B- C -0 A- D- B
 Tue, Nov 11 5 @Illinois L 77 - 81 24% -4  11% 2 - 1 A +22 B+ +9 A+ C F A+ +13 A- A A
 Fri, Nov 14 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 63 99% +4  69% 3 - 1 B- +8 B- +5 D+ A B B +4 B D A
 Thu, Nov 20 61 Wake Forest W 84 - 83 81% +2  56% 4 - 1 B +10 B +6 B+ B B- B +4 B C+ F+
 Fri, Nov 21 8 Purdue L 56 - 86 38% -17  3% 4 - 2 D -9 F+ -9 F B- A C -1 F+ A A-
 Wed, Nov 26 209 New Orleans W 82 - 50 98% +12  92% 5 - 2 A+ +26 C +2 D+ A D+ A+ +24 A+ A A
 Sun, Nov 30 104 Wyoming W 76 - 72 93% +2  69% 6 - 2 B- +5 C+ +2 C+ B- B- B +4 C+ A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 54 LSU W 82 - 58 78% +18  98% 7 - 2 A+ +34 B+ +9 A C F+ A+ +25 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 17 Arkansas L 86 - 93 50% +2  80% 7 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +21 A+ A A+ F -10 C F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 156 Northern Colorado W 101 - 90 97% +7  97% 8 - 3 B- +8 A+ +25 A+ D A+ F -17 F F D
 Sat, Dec 20 2 Duke W 82 - 81 29% -4  30% 9 - 3 A+ +25 A+ +19 A+ B+ A B+ +7 D A+ C
 Sun, Dec 28 136 Winthrop W 87 - 57 96% +26  99% 10 - 3 A+ +28 B+ +9 A- B- F+ A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 62 Oklahoma St. W 102 - 80 88% +12  95% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +19 A+ A A+ B+ +7 B+ A F+
 Tue, Jan 6 6 @Houston L 65 - 69 25% +0  53% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A +21 B- +5 B B B A+ +16 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 10 72 @Colorado W 73 - 71 76% +9  76% 12 - 4 2 - 1 B+ +13 C+ +3 B- D B+ A +10 A+ A D-
 Wed, Jan 14 102 Utah W 88 - 74 93% +11  98% 13 - 4 3 - 1 A- +16 A- +10 A+ A- C B+ +6 C+ A B
 Sat, Jan 17 21 BYU W 84 - 71 65% +1  54% 14 - 4 4 - 1 A+ +27 A +12 A B- B+ A+ +15 A+ A B+
 Tue, Jan 20 47 @Baylor W 92 - 73 65% +16  99% 15 - 4 5 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +25 A+ D+ D A +9 B B B-
 Sat, Jan 24 6 Houston W 90 - 86 46% +1  46% 16 - 4 6 - 1 A+ +23 A+ +30 A A+ A+ D- -7 D B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 52 @Central Florida L 80 - 88 68% -4  3% 16 - 5 6 - 2 B- +6 A- +10 A+ D D+ D+ -4 A F F
 Mon, Feb 2 15 Kansas L 61 - 64 60% +1  55% 16 - 6 6 - 3 B+ +13 D -4 B D B A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Feb 8 55 @West Virginia W 70 - 63 70% +8  98% 17 - 6 7 - 3 A +20 A- +10 A+ F B- A +10 A+ C+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 72 Colorado W 78 - 44 89% +17  94% 18 - 6 8 - 3 A+ +39 A- +11 B- A+ F+ A+ +32 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 3 @Arizona W 78 - 75 OT 21% -1  23% 19 - 6 9 - 3 A+ +30 A+ +17 A+ D+ A+ A+ +13 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Feb 17 63 @Arizona St. L 67 - 72 74% -1  42% 19 - 7 9 - 4 B- +7 C +0 C- A+ F B+ +6 B A D+
 Sat, Feb 21 92 Kansas St. W 87 - 72 93%
 Tue, Feb 24 46 Cincinnati W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 7 @Iowa St. L 71 - 77 28%
 Tue, Mar 3 50 TCU W 78 - 67 84%
 Sat, Mar 7 21 @BYU L 79 - 81 43%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +18 A- +10 A+ A C- A- +8 A C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B A- A A 31% 29% 49% C- A- B C B- B D C+ D+ A- B- C+ A- B+ 31% 32% 37% A+ A- A- B B+ C+ B- A B
1.23 65% 46% 41% +8 -1 1.18 35% 1.0 .37 15% .27 73% .20 0.97 54% 37% 29% -4 -2 0.89 25% 0.9 .23 18% .27 67% .18
Nov
4		 Lindenwood A D+ B A B+ 28% 15% 57% D B A F D+ A+ C D- D+ A+ A A A A 32% 30% 38% A+ A A A+ A+ C- F C+ F
1.28 56% 40% 41% +5 0 1.12 42% 0.7 .29 9% .33 65% .22 0.78 47% 25% 25% -13 -2 0.74 23% 0.5 .13 18% .42 65% .27
Nov
7		 Sam Houston St. A+ C+ B+ A A 29% 20% 51% D+ A- A+ B- A+ B- A+ D- A+ C B B+ F+ B 28% 43% 28% A+ A- F B- D- B F C+ F+
1.39 62% 44% 39% +6 -1 1.13 50% 1.1 .55 16% .72 65% .47 1.09 53% 30% 40% -2 -4 0.91 45% 0.9 .43 20% .35 70% .25
Nov
11		 Illinois B+ A+ A+ F+ A+ 29% 34% 37% C A+ C C- C F F A- F+ A+ D+ D A B+ 35% 25% 40% A A- A+ C- A A F A+ D+
1.07 82% 55% 27% +9 -2 1.15 23% 0.9 .20 18% .07 75% .05 1.13 67% 46% 29% +2 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .41 18% .39 70% .27
Nov
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B- B+ F+ C+ C 24% 26% 50% F D+ A+ C A B F A+ C- B D- D- A+ C 23% 43% 34% A+ B C+ F D A C- F+ D+
1.23 67% 31% 36% +2 -2 1.02 42% 1.1 .47 14% .25 93% .23 0.97 64% 45% 19% -4 -4 0.87 30% 1.3 .40 20% .29 73% .21
Nov
20		 Wake Forest B C+ B+ A- A 19% 26% 55% F B+ A D- B B- B B- B B A- B- F B- 39% 30% 30% A- B B+ F C+ F+ C A+ A-
1.12 60% 43% 38% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .36 19% .34 76% .26 1.10 50% 41% 41% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.4 .37 11% .33 59% .19
Nov
21		 Purdue F+ B F F F 16% 22% 63% C F C- A+ B- A B F C C F+ F F F 24% 52% 24% A+ F+ C- A+ A A- B- A B
0.84 63% 27% 22% -13 -2 0.73 21% 1.3 .29 14% .24 57% .14 1.30 75% 54% 58% +21 -5 1.34 38% 0.9 .35 17% .27 67% .18
Nov
26		 New Orleans C D F B D+ 38% 25% 37% D D+ A- B+ A D+ A- F C- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 33% 27% B+ A+ A+ F A A A+ A+ A+
1.16 50% 31% 37% -3 -1 0.94 43% 1.2 .50 17% .43 60% .26 0.71 58% 25% 8% -15 -2 0.69 17% 1.5 .26 24% .24 62% .15
Nov
30		 Wyoming C+ A+ B F B 38% 29% 33% F C+ B+ D+ B- B- A+ F B+ B D- F A+ D+ 33% 37% 29% A+ C+ A- A+ A+ B A F C+
1.12 72% 43% 25% +2 -1 1.04 33% 0.8 .28 15% .52 60% .31 1.06 65% 58% 20% +3 -3 1.04 30% 0.7 .20 19% .24 100% .24
Dec
7		 LSU B+ C D- A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% C+ A B+ D- C F+ C+ A- B A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 18% 44% 38% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B A+ A
1.16 56% 30% 48% +8 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .27 20% .32 72% .23 0.82 60% 33% 19% -10 -4 0.73 20% 0.9 .18 13% .31 63% .19
Dec
13		 Arkansas A+ B+ F A A+ 47% 9% 45% A A+ A- B- A A+ F F F F B C+ F C+ 52% 16% 32% D- C F C+ F D+ F A+ D-
1.29 63% 20% 38% +4 +2 1.14 37% 1.3 .47 11% .17 30% .05 1.40 58% 38% 50% +7 +2 1.20 46% 1.3 .57 11% .44 65% .29
Dec
16		 Northern Colorado A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% D- A+ F A+ D A+ B B- B F F F+ F F 34% 23% 43% B F F F F D A A+ A+
1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29 1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07
Dec
20		 Duke A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 39% 24% 37% B- A+ C A+ B+ A A D- B+ B+ D+ F F D- 40% 7% 53% C+ D A+ D A+ C F A+ D
1.16 70% 58% 37% +11 0 1.24 23% 1.1 .27 16% .29 65% .19 1.15 67% 67% 42% +12 +2 1.29 21% 1.3 .28 16% .49 59% .29
Dec
28		 Winthrop B+ C- A+ A- A 33% 14% 53% C+ A- B- C B- F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% A- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C
1.23 56% 71% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 20% .46 88% .41 0.81 35% 70% 14% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.4 .16 21% .41 65% .27
Jan
3		 Oklahoma St. A+ C+ B A+ A+ 19% 30% 51% F A+ B A A A+ F+ A D B+ C- A B- B 42% 18% 40% A- B+ A+ D A F+ A- C A-
1.34 58% 42% 47% +11 -3 1.19 33% 1.3 .43 9% .20 79% .16 1.05 60% 27% 33% -2 +1 1.00 19% 1.1 .21 10% .28 74% .20
Jan
6		 Houston B- D A+ D+ B 29% 16% 55% B- B C- A+ B B F A+ D A+ C- B A+ A+ 22% 48% 30% A+ A+ A D+ B D F C F
0.98 50% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 25% 1.3 .31 21% .21 91% .19 1.04 67% 35% 25% -4 -5 0.85 31% 1.1 .33 9% .36 77% .28
Jan
10		 Colorado C+ A F B+ B 32% 23% 46% C B- A F D B+ F F F A A- D+ A A+ 37% 27% 35% B+ A+ A+ D+ A D- D+ F F
1.07 67% 23% 38% +2 -1 1.05 36% 0.6 .22 13% .17 40% .07 1.04 53% 43% 28% -4 -1 0.92 19% 1.0 .19 10% .36 86% .31
Jan
14		 Utah A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 24% 50% F+ A+ A- B- A- C F F F B+ C A+ F C 36% 23% 42% B+ C+ A+ C- A B B- B- B-
1.23 60% 64% 41% +12 -1 1.24 37% 1.1 .40 15% .08 60% .05 1.03 58% 8% 50% +3 0 1.08 18% 1.0 .18 18% .29 71% .20
Jan
17		 BYU A C+ B- A- A- 33% 20% 47% A A B C B- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A+ 30% 33% 37% A A+ A- A A B+ A F B+
1.20 59% 40% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.1 .33 14% .38 83% .32 1.01 69% 33% 25% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 17% .24 86% .21
Jan
20		 Baylor A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 10% 40% 50% D- A+ D- C+ D+ D D- A D+ A F C- B C 10% 51% 39% A+ B A- D+ B B- D+ A+ A
1.37 80% 52% 62% +29 -5 1.50 22% 1.0 .22 19% .20 82% .17 1.08 100% 44% 32% +6 -6 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 16% .35 50% .18
Jan
24		 Houston A+ C F+ A+ A+ 24% 26% 50% D A A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- F D- F F+ 17% 42% 40% A+ D A- C+ B+ D F D F
1.38 55% 25% 43% +3 -2 1.04 55% 1.0 .58 15% .54 80% .44 1.32 78% 45% 43% +12 -4 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 9% .36 81% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Central Florida A- A+ A+ B+ A+ 34% 11% 55% B A+ F A D D+ F F F D+ D A+ C- B+ 38% 42% 20% A+ A D F F F D- F+ F+
1.16 78% 67% 38% +13 +1 1.30 15% 1.3 .19 19% .21 58% .12 1.27 67% 26% 36% -1 -3 0.95 41% 1.6 .66 9% .35 82% .29
Feb
2		 Kansas D F A+ B- B+ 14% 29% 57% F B B F D B F D- F A+ F+ C A+ A 22% 39% 39% A+ A+ A+ F B+ A+ A C A-
0.88 13% 47% 33% -4 -3 0.88 30% 0.5 .15 13% .08 60% .05 0.92 73% 37% 26% -2 -3 0.92 16% 2.0 .32 22% .24 77% .18
Feb
8		 West Virginia A- F A A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% B A+ F C F B- C A+ B- A F C A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% B- A+ A- F C+ D+ F A+ C-
1.08 41% 43% 54% +10 +1 1.23 7% 1.0 .07 17% .24 85% .21 0.98 75% 40% 5% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 14% .41 57% .23
Feb
11		 Colorado A- A D B- B 24% 24% 51% D+ B- A+ B+ A+ F+ C- C C- A+ B+ A+ A A+ 28% 26% 47% A A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.22 67% 33% 36% +3 -1 1.04 50% 1.2 .62 20% .28 71% .20 0.69 54% 25% 27% -9 -1 0.81 30% 0.0 .00 25% .21 60% .13
Feb
14		 Arizona A+ A+ C B A+ 21% 25% 54% C+ A+ B+ F D+ A+ B+ C B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ 25% 46% 29% A+ A+ A C- B+ F F C F
1.11 75% 36% 35% +4 -2 1.07 30% 0.5 .15 11% .30 68% .21 1.07 38% 46% 27% -4 -4 0.85 33% 1.0 .33 10% .49 74% .36
Feb
17		 Arizona St. C F C- B+ C 26% 30% 45% F+ C- B- A+ A+ F D+ B- C- B+ A C- F+ B+ 50% 20% 30% D B B A A D+ A- C B+
1.01 42% 36% 38% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.5 .53 26% .26 77% .20 1.09 48% 40% 40% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 14% .30 76% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.8 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 13.9 3.2 18.3 3rd
4th 0.6 11.8 15.0 27.4 4th
5th 0.6 11.7 27.1 3.5 42.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 2.9 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 2.4 15.2 40.0 33.6 8.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.9% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.5% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.9 0.8 2.3 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 33.6% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3.9 0.3 2.2 8.7 13.1 7.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 40.0% 99.9% 4.7% 95.2% 4.8 0.0 0.4 3.5 10.7 15.5 8.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-7 15.2% 99.9% 3.5% 96.4% 5.5 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.1 5.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 2.4% 99.7% 1.5% 98.2% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 0.2% 96.8% 3.2% 93.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 4.5 0.1 99.9%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.8 34.9 51.7 12.6 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8% 100.0% 2.6 9.1 36.2 41.4 12.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 100.0% 3.1 3.9 22.3 42.0 27.8 4.0 0.1