Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#21
Expected Predictive Rating+17.1#22
Pace67.8#227
Improvement+0.9#117

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#29
First Shot+6.4#31
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#69
Layup/Dunks-1.3#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#28
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement-1.1#273

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#21
First Shot+6.1#27
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#113
Layups/Dunks+5.4#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-10.2#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#6
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement+2.0#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.7% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.6% 9.4% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 28.7% 37.1% 19.9%
Top 6 Seed 55.7% 65.9% 44.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.6% 91.2% 79.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.9% 90.7% 78.8%
Average Seed 5.8 5.3 6.4
.500 or above 95.2% 97.8% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 79.9% 71.7%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.4% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four5.2% 3.7% 6.9%
First Round83.3% 89.6% 76.6%
Second Round62.0% 69.6% 53.9%
Sweet Sixteen29.3% 34.8% 23.5%
Elite Eight11.8% 13.9% 9.5%
Final Four4.5% 5.4% 3.6%
Championship Game1.7% 2.1% 1.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Arkansas (Neutral) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 112 - 12
Quad 35 - 017 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 235 Lindenwood W 98-60 97%     1 - 0 +30.8 +14.5 +13.0
  Fri, Nov 7 127 Sam Houston St. W 98-77 92%     2 - 0 +20.5 +23.0 -2.7
  Tue, Nov 11 11 @Illinois L 77-81 27%     2 - 1 +17.8 +11.1 +6.8
  Fri, Nov 14 223 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-63 97%     3 - 1 +10.4 +9.5 +2.3
  Thu, Nov 20 49 Wake Forest W 84-83 68%     4 - 1 +11.8 +10.5 +1.2
  Fri, Nov 21 7 Purdue L 56-86 30%     4 - 2 -9.2 -6.6 -4.3
  Wed, Nov 26 241 New Orleans W 82-50 97%     5 - 2 +24.5 +3.4 +20.9
  Sun, Nov 30 99 Wyoming W 76-72 89%     6 - 2 +6.0 +6.3 -0.1
  Sun, Dec 7 38 LSU W 82-58 63%     7 - 2 +36.0 +14.3 +21.4
  Sat, Dec 13 25 Arkansas W 76-75 51%    
  Tue, Dec 16 161 Northern Colorado W 84-65 96%    
  Sat, Dec 20 2 Duke L 68-75 26%    
  Sun, Dec 28 114 Winthrop W 86-71 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 45 Oklahoma St. W 85-78 75%    
  Tue, Jan 6 8 @Houston L 64-71 25%    
  Sat, Jan 10 63 @Colorado W 79-75 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 112 Utah W 84-69 92%    
  Sat, Jan 17 10 BYU L 74-75 48%    
  Tue, Jan 20 34 @Baylor L 78-79 47%    
  Sat, Jan 24 8 Houston L 67-68 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 58 @Central Florida W 80-77 60%    
  Mon, Feb 2 17 Kansas W 72-70 57%    
  Sun, Feb 8 67 @West Virginia W 70-66 64%    
  Wed, Feb 11 63 Colorado W 82-72 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 5 @Arizona L 73-82 22%    
  Tue, Feb 17 60 @Arizona St. W 77-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 78 Kansas St. W 85-74 84%    
  Tue, Feb 24 68 Cincinnati W 77-67 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 3 @Iowa St. L 69-79 20%    
  Tue, Mar 3 47 TCU W 75-68 75%    
  Sat, Mar 7 10 @BYU L 71-78 28%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.0 1.1 0.1 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.3 1.6 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.8 2.3 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 6.4 3.3 0.3 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.9 4.3 0.4 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.8 4.4 4.5 0.8 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 4.3 1.1 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.9 1.7 0.1 6.8 9th
10th 0.2 2.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.8 7.0 10.4 12.9 14.8 15.3 13.2 9.5 6.0 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 86.5% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 56.7% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 20.1% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.9% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.0% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 3.0 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.5% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 3.7 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
12-6 13.2% 99.9% 7.6% 92.3% 4.5 0.1 0.4 2.1 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 15.3% 99.7% 4.1% 95.5% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.6 4.2 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-8 14.8% 98.7% 2.2% 96.5% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 4.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.7%
9-9 12.9% 94.0% 1.4% 92.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.8 93.9%
8-10 10.4% 72.1% 0.8% 71.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.1 0.1 0.0 2.9 71.9%
7-11 7.0% 38.0% 0.7% 37.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.4 37.6%
6-12 3.8% 11.7% 0.4% 11.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.4 11.4%
5-13 1.9% 2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8%
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 85.6% 4.8% 80.8% 5.8 1.9 4.7 9.2 13.0 14.2 12.8 9.2 6.2 5.0 4.5 4.5 0.4 0.0 14.4 84.9%