Nebraska
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.9 13
Expected Predictive Rating +22.6 8
Pace 68.1 196
Improvement +1.4 137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 46 A- C- B+ D+ B
Defense A 5 A- A A- A A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 245 A 71% 4 +3.6 62
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 353 D- 32% 338 -4.3 353
Three Pointers 53% 12 B 37% 39 +8.7 8
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 49 A- +6.6 19
1st FG Attempt A- 1.18 17
Second Chance D+ 27.1% 276 B- 1.11 64 C- 0.30 198
Turnovers B+ 13.6% 21
Freethrows D 0.26 310 B 76% 57 D+ 0.20 259
Total Offense B+ +7.4 46

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 71 A- 6.6% 15
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 54% 3 F 11.6% 361
Three Pointers B 91% 44 C+ 0.8% 162
Total A 69% 8 B+ 4.1% 30

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 21% 365 C- 60% 237 -9.6 2
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 18 B+ 33% 26 +1.7 311
Three Pointers 50% 8 A 29% 8 +0.7 219
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.2 3 B+ -5.1 27
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 12
Second Chance B+ 24.9% 23 A 0.84 8 A 0.21 6
Turnovers A- 20.6% 24
Freethrows A 0.22 8 A- 68% 20 A 0.15 7
Total Defense A +11.5 5

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 162 D 7.7% 313
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 291 B+ 8.3% 39
Three Pointers D+ 87% 269 B+ 2.0% 30
Total C- 59% 256 C- 5.0% 220

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 51 19.2 362
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 250 0.08 3
Improvement -3.3 #329 +4.7 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 21 14 9
Conference Record 13 - 7 15 - 5 16 - 4
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed 5 3 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round Sweet 16 Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 5% 6% 2%
Top 2 Seed 25% 26% 10%
Top 4 Seed 85% 86% 68%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 98%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 3.3 3.3 4.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round95% 95% 91%
Sweet Sixteen59% 59% 49%
Elite Eight26% 26% 18%
Final Four11% 11% 6%
Championship Game4% 4% 2%
National Champion1% 2% 1%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 96.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 6
Quad 26 - 015 - 6
Quad 36 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 318 West Georgia W 86 - 53 99% +11  62% 1 - 0 A +20 B- +4 D A+ B A+ +16 A+ B- C
 Sat, Nov 8 185 Florida International W 96 - 66 97% +21  97% 2 - 0 A+ +25 A- +10 A+ C+ C+ A+ +12 A C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 50 100% +15  95% 3 - 0 C+ +3 F+ -9 F D+ A A+ +13 A A C+
 Sat, Nov 15 51 Oklahoma W 105 - 99 79% -3  31% 4 - 0 A- +17 A+ +29 A+ F A+ F -12 D- C+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 45 New Mexico W 84 - 72 76% +11  99% 5 - 0 A+ +24 C+ +3 A+ F+ D- A+ +19 A A A
 Fri, Nov 21 92 Kansas St. W 86 - 85 88% +4  59% 6 - 0 B- +7 B +7 A+ D+ B+ C -0 B D+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 136 Winthrop W 80 - 73 96% +2  63% 7 - 0 B- +5 B- +4 C D- A+ C+ +2 D A- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 302 South Carolina Upstate W 72 - 63 99% +2  55% 8 - 0 C- -2 F+ -8 C- D- D B+ +6 B- B+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 60 Creighton W 71 - 50 88% +14  94% 9 - 0 A+ +27 C+ +3 B D+ B+ A+ +26 A+ A- A
 Wed, Dec 10 29 Wisconsin W 90 - 60 75% +14  79% 10 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +42 A+ +19 A+ A- B- A+ +24 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 5 @Illinois W 83 - 80 25% +6  92% 11 - 0 2 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +26 A+ B+ A- B- +3 B D- C
 Sun, Dec 21 295 North Dakota W 78 - 55 99% +3  48% 12 - 0 B+ +12 C- -1 D+ F A+ A+ +14 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 344 New Hampshire W 86 - 55 100% +10  83% 13 - 0 A- +15 B +7 D A+ C A +9 B B A
 Fri, Jan 2 11 Michigan St. W 58 - 56 60% +1  43% 14 - 0 3 - 0 A +18 D+ -3 C C+ A A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 34 @Ohio St. W 72 - 69 56% +5  88% 15 - 0 4 - 0 A +20 B- +5 B+ F+ C- A+ +16 B+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 37 @Indiana W 83 - 77 59% -1  44% 16 - 0 5 - 0 A +23 A+ +18 A+ C A B +5 B+ F+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 91 Oregon W 90 - 55 92% +14  84% 17 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +38 A+ +25 A+ A- A+ A+ +17 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 67 @Northwestern W 77 - 58 77% +7  87% 18 - 0 7 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +19 A+ B A+ A+ +14 B A A+
 Wed, Jan 21 44 Washington W 76 - 66 83% +10  90% 19 - 0 8 - 0 A +19 A +11 A+ F+ A- A- +8 B+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 24 66 @Minnesota W 76 - 57 76% +4  68% 20 - 0 9 - 0 A+ +31 A +13 A+ F+ A+ A+ +19 B A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 27 1 @Michigan L 72 - 75 15% +4  91% 20 - 1 9 - 1 A+ +27 A- +11 A+ D- B+ A+ +16 A C- A+
 Sun, Feb 1 5 Illinois L 69 - 78 46% -2  35% 20 - 2 9 - 2 B +11 B +7 A+ C+ C+ B- +3 B A+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 109 @Rutgers W 80 - 68 87% +10  92% 21 - 2 10 - 2 A +19 A- +10 B D A+ A +9 D A A+
 Tue, Feb 10 8 Purdue L 77 - 80 OT 52% -11  3% 21 - 3 10 - 3 A- +15 C +2 B+ D- C- A+ +14 A+ A B
 Sat, Feb 14 67 Northwestern W 68 - 49 89% +4  53% 22 - 3 11 - 3 A+ +24 C +0 B- A+ F A+ +26 A+ B A+
 Tue, Feb 17 26 @Iowa L 52 - 57 51% -2  24% 22 - 4 11 - 4 B+ +14 D- -6 D+ F+ B A+ +19 A+ A A
 Sat, Feb 21 115 Penn St. W 84 - 65 96%
 Wed, Feb 25 107 Maryland W 81 - 63 96%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 @USC W 77 - 71 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 39 @UCLA W 72 - 69 59%
 Sun, Mar 8 26 Iowa W 71 - 65 72%
Totals 26 - 5 15 - 5 +19 B+ +7 B- A- B A +11 B B D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ A D- B A- 36% 17% 53% B A- D+ B- C- B+ D B D+ A C- B+ A B+ 21% 29% 50% A+ A- B+ A A A- A A- A
1.19 71% 32% 37% +7 +1 1.18 27% 1.1 .30 14% .26 76% .20 0.92 60% 33% 29% -5 -2 0.88 25% 0.8 .21 21% .22 68% .18
Nov
3		 West Georgia B- A- D- F D- 40% 6% 54% B- D B+ A+ A+ B A F B- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 14% 46% 40% A+ A+ B C- B- C B F C
1.22 70% 33% 26% -2 +2 1.02 38% 1.3 .48 13% .41 64% .26 0.75 50% 23% 17% -18 -5 0.56 26% 1.1 .28 17% .22 85% .19
Nov
8		 Florida International A- B F+ A+ A+ 37% 10% 53% B- A+ D- A+ C+ C+ F F F A+ A+ F B+ A+ 48% 17% 34% D+ A F+ A C+ A+ A+ C+ A+
1.25 64% 33% 52% +16 +1 1.36 28% 1.3 .38 20% .13 63% .08 0.86 36% 50% 30% -11 +1 0.83 39% 0.8 .32 26% .11 67% .07
Nov
11		 Maryland Eastern Shore F+ A+ F F F 38% 10% 52% B F D+ C- D+ A D+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ B B 12% 45% 43% A+ A B A+ A C+ B F+ B-
1.03 80% 0% 15% -10 +1 0.85 29% 1.1 .32 10% .30 83% .25 0.75 83% 23% 29% -7 -5 0.78 26% 0.5 .13 24% .18 78% .14
Nov
15		 Oklahoma A+ A+ F A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% A A+ D+ F F A+ A+ B+ A+ F F F D F 23% 16% 61% B D- B+ F+ C+ C D+ F F
1.47 77% 20% 58% +24 +2 1.53 28% 0.5 .14 7% .42 79% .33 1.38 77% 56% 38% +11 0 1.23 29% 1.4 .42 14% .34 90% .31
Nov
20		 New Mexico C+ A+ D- A A+ 26% 11% 63% B+ A+ F C F+ D- A+ D- A A+ C F A A- 20% 14% 66% A A A+ C A A A+ A+ A+
1.04 71% 33% 38% +7 0 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 22% .40 68% .27 0.89 58% 63% 28% -2 0 0.97 20% 1.0 .20 20% .17 64% .11
Nov
21		 Kansas St. B A+ A+ F A+ 38% 7% 55% A- A+ D- A D+ B+ B- F D+ C F D+ B+ C+ 18% 25% 57% A+ B A- F D+ C+ F F F
1.14 90% 75% 27% +9 +2 1.24 26% 1.4 .35 16% .32 60% .19 1.13 89% 38% 31% +3 -2 1.04 27% 1.4 .39 17% .35 86% .30
Nov
25		 Winthrop B- A- D C- C 25% 18% 57% D+ C D D D- A+ F A+ F C+ F C- D+ F 7% 29% 64% A+ D D- A+ A- C+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 67% 36% 32% 0 -1 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 7% .16 90% .14 1.06 100% 38% 36% +5 -3 1.05 38% 0.7 .27 16% .22 62% .14
Nov
29		 South Carolina Upstate F+ A+ F D- C 28% 18% 54% D C- D D- D- D C A- B- B+ A B D+ C- 15% 32% 53% A+ B- A C+ B+ D A+ A+ A+
1.00 79% 22% 30% -1 0 1.00 27% 1.0 .27 18% .31 78% .24 0.88 44% 32% 35% -3 -3 0.90 20% 0.9 .18 15% .13 38% .05
Dec
7		 Creighton C+ A+ F B- B+ 25% 25% 49% D+ B D C- D+ B+ A+ D A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 11% 24% 64% A+ A+ A- B+ A- A D- A+ C+
1.11 77% 23% 36% +2 -2 1.04 24% 1.0 .24 13% .36 65% .23 0.78 80% 18% 24% -12 -2 0.73 23% 0.9 .20 19% .33 59% .19
Dec
10		 Wisconsin A+ A+ F A A+ 38% 11% 51% A A+ B- A+ A- B- C- A+ B A+ F A+ A+ A+ 25% 19% 57% A A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ D- A+
1.29 81% 17% 39% +10 +1 1.25 28% 1.3 .34 14% .25 87% .22 0.86 77% 20% 23% -8 -1 0.85 27% 0.6 .17 16% .19 82% .15
Dec
13		 Illinois A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 27% 29% 45% C+ A+ B- A B+ A- C- A+ C+ B- F F A B- 26% 21% 53% A B C+ F D- C D- A+ C
1.31 73% 38% 44% +11 -2 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 10% .14 88% .12 1.27 83% 50% 28% +4 -1 1.09 41% 1.5 .59 13% .36 70% .25
Dec
21		 North Dakota C- A+ F F D+ 44% 15% 41% C D+ D+ F F A+ F+ A+ C- A+ B+ A D+ C- 25% 23% 53% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ F A+
1.17 75% 25% 27% +2 +1 1.07 31% 0.5 .17 9% .31 84% .26 0.83 46% 25% 36% -4 -1 0.91 16% 0.0 .00 18% .16 78% .13
Dec
30		 New Hampshire B A+ F F D 40% 19% 42% C D A+ A+ A+ C A+ C+ A+ A B- F A C 9% 29% 62% A+ B D- A+ B A D- B D
1.25 79% 22% 20% -3 0 0.96 43% 1.4 .59 15% .59 77% .46 0.80 50% 46% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.6 .18 23% .32 65% .21
Jan
2		 Michigan St. D+ F F B+ C 18% 18% 65% C C C B+ C+ A C- D+ D+ A+ A A+ C- A 5% 36% 60% A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C C C
0.90 33% 11% 36% -7 -1 0.86 19% 0.9 .17 12% .23 69% .16 0.87 50% 27% 36% -3 -4 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 30% .35 75% .26
Jan
5		 Ohio St. B- A A+ F+ B 35% 14% 51% A B+ D F F+ C- C+ A+ B+ A+ A- D- D B+ 30% 26% 44% B- B+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.06 67% 57% 27% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 18% .30 82% .25 1.01 56% 50% 38% +5 -1 1.09 12% 0.5 .06 12% .22 62% .13
Jan
10		 Indiana A+ C A+ A+ A+ 29% 10% 61% A A+ B- D C A F+ B+ D B C- C+ C- B- 23% 19% 58% A+ B+ C- F F+ A+ C+ D- C
1.24 53% 80% 42% +10 +1 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 12% .24 79% .19 1.15 64% 44% 36% +4 -1 1.08 31% 1.3 .41 21% .32 82% .26
Jan
13		 Oregon A+ A+ F A+ A+ 30% 11% 58% A- A+ D+ A+ A- A+ F A- D- A+ D- B+ A B 33% 14% 52% C+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A-
1.40 81% 17% 45% +14 +1 1.32 27% 1.4 .37 9% .19 82% .15 0.86 64% 33% 27% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 25% .35 53% .19
Jan
17		 Northwestern A+ C D+ A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% B A+ F A+ B A+ C- A C+ A+ A+ F+ D+ C+ 28% 41% 30% A+ B C A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+
1.28 56% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.17 22% 1.7 .37 8% .27 80% .22 0.97 46% 47% 36% +1 -3 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 18% .20 70% .14
Jan
21		 Washington A A+ B- A A+ 27% 19% 54% B A+ F C F+ A- D A- D+ A- F A- A B 28% 39% 33% A+ B+ A+ C+ A D- A+ A+ A+
1.18 79% 40% 39% +10 -1 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 12% .21 75% .16 1.03 80% 33% 28% +1 -3 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 12% .18 60% .11
Jan
24		 Minnesota A B A+ B- A 42% 9% 49% A+ A+ C- F F+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ F B- A B 27% 13% 60% B- B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.17 64% 80% 35% +7 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 12% .16 100% .16 0.88 77% 33% 28% -1 0 1.00 18% 0.4 .08 20% .23 50% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Michigan A- A+ C- A A+ 32% 16% 52% A A+ D+ F D- B+ F B- F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 38% 9% 53% B A B F C- A+ F+ F F
1.01 72% 33% 38% +7 0 1.16 21% 0.7 .15 15% .07 75% .05 1.05 76% 25% 25% -1 +1 1.02 36% 1.6 .56 27% .44 83% .36
Feb
1		 Illinois B D- F+ A+ A+ 21% 21% 58% B A+ D- A+ C+ C+ F+ A+ D B- F A+ A- B 29% 15% 56% B B A A+ A+ C F C- F
1.09 45% 27% 45% +5 -1 1.09 17% 1.3 .23 13% .09 80% .07 1.23 86% 29% 30% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.9 .31 13% .47 81% .38
Feb
7		 Rutgers A- C- A+ B- B- 41% 14% 45% B+ B F+ C+ D A+ D- A+ C- A F F A- F 15% 44% 40% A+ D A+ C A A+ A+ A+ A+
1.17 57% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.09 24% 1.0 .24 9% .19 92% .18 1.00 75% 52% 29% +6 -5 1.04 24% 1.1 .27 22% .23 58% .13
Feb
10		 Purdue C C F A B 29% 15% 56% A- B+ D- D+ D- C- A+ C- A A+ F A- A A+ 11% 28% 61% A+ A+ D+ A+ A B C- A+ B+
1.01 56% 25% 39% +2 0 1.05 15% 1.0 .15 18% .32 65% .21 1.05 86% 33% 28% -4 -3 0.89 40% 0.8 .33 14% .31 55% .17
Feb
14		 Northwestern C C+ F B C+ 39% 11% 50% A- B- A A+ A+ F D+ B C- A+ F A+ A+ A+ 18% 49% 33% A+ A+ A+ F B A+ A+ A+ A+
1.05 59% 0% 36% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.3 .55 28% .26 75% .19 0.76 88% 23% 20% -9 -5 0.73 18% 1.8 .33 25% .23 55% .12
Feb
17		 Iowa D- A+ F F D 34% 10% 56% B D+ F A+ F+ B D+ A- C A+ A+ A- A A+ 24% 26% 50% A+ A+ C- A+ A A D F F
0.87 79% 0% 22% -7 +1 0.90 7% 2.0 .15 20% .29 79% .23 0.95 40% 36% 29% -9 -2 0.81 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 94% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 5.5 19.9 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.7 24.9 8.7 37.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 16.3 11.7 29.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 3.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 5.5 23.2 42.1 28.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1
15-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 28.8% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 2.5 3.8 10.5 10.8 3.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 42.1% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 3.2 1.5 7.9 16.4 12.8 3.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 23.2% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 4.0 0.2 1.2 5.6 9.2 5.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.5% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.4% 99.2% 0.8% 98.5% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 3.3 0.0 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 1.7 39.7 51.0 9.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7% 100.0% 2.2 17.9 48.3 29.9 3.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.4% 100.0% 2.6 9.9 35.6 42.2 11.8 0.5