Nebraska
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.0 #26
Expected Predictive Rating +27.0 #6
Pace 69.0 #196
Improvement +2.0 #76

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #35 A C- C- A C+
Defense #32 A- A- A- B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.58 #1 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #292 0.61 #323 -3.1 #322
Three Pointers 51% #25 1.04 #138 +5.8 #29
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #25 +7.5 #24
Freethrows 15.7 #273 75% #102 11.8 #231
Second Chance 28.2% #250 1.05 #162 0.30 #223
Turnovers 13.2% #19
Total Offense +8.2 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 19% #365 1.25 #276 +10.6 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #17 0.69 #108 -2.2 #326
Three Pointers 52% #7 0.89 #50 -2.5 #280
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #38 +5.9 #38
Freethrows 12.5 #17 74% #234 9.2 #22
Second Chance 26.5% #53 0.86 #23 0.23 #25
Turnovers 18.8% #71
Total Defense +6.8 #32

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #140 -5.1% #2
Shot Type Make Effect 13.7% #26 -6.7% #71
Possession Length 16.1 #79 18.5 #342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.07 #3
Improvement +0.8 #115 +1.2 #109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.9% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 5.6% 8.2% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 35.9% 45.6% 25.0%
Top 6 Seed 70.0% 79.7% 59.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.1% 99.0% 94.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.0% 99.0% 94.8%
Average Seed 5.4 4.9 6.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 93.4% 79.2%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.3% 1.0% 3.8%
First Round96.0% 98.5% 93.2%
Second Round69.8% 76.3% 62.4%
Sweet Sixteen29.9% 35.3% 23.8%
Elite Eight10.2% 12.8% 7.3%
Final Four3.3% 4.1% 2.4%
Championship Game1.1% 1.5% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Home) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 7
Quad 27 - 114 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 9
Quad 47 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 313 West Georgia W 86-53 99%     11.4   1 - 0 +20.8 +6.9 +13.7
  Sat, Nov 8 185 Florida International W 96-66 95%     20.7   2 - 0 +25.5 +11.6 +11.2
  Tue, Nov 11 344 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-50 99%     14.6   3 - 0 +3.8 -6.7 +11.4
  Sat, Nov 15 46 Oklahoma W 105-99 64%     -3.3   4 - 0 +17.2 +32.2 -15.1
  Thu, Nov 20 69 New Mexico W 84-72 75%     11.1   5 - 0 +20.0 +5.5 +12.9
  Fri, Nov 21 68 Kansas St. W 86-85 74%     4.0   6 - 0 +9.1 +9.2 -0.1
  Tue, Nov 25 152 Winthrop W 80-73 94%     2.4   7 - 0 +4.4 +3.8 +0.7
  Sat, Nov 29 284 South Carolina Upstate W 72-63 98%     1.6   8 - 0 -0.6 -5.5 +4.7
  Sun, Dec 7 39 Creighton W 71-50 68%     13.8   9 - 0 +31.1 +9.3 +23.9
  Wed, Dec 10 45 Wisconsin W 90-60 74%     13.6   10 - 0 1 - 0 +38.4 +21.8 +16.8
  Sat, Dec 13 8 @Illinois W 83-80 21%     5.8   11 - 0 2 - 0 +26.4 +28.2 -1.5
  Sun, Dec 21 329 North Dakota W 78-55 99%     2.9   12 - 0 +9.5 +3.4 +7.2
  Tue, Dec 30 333 New Hampshire W 86-55 99%     10.2   13 - 0 +17.3 +10.9 +6.9
  Fri, Jan 2 17 Michigan St. W 73-72 53%    
  Mon, Jan 5 30 @Ohio St. L 76-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 28 @Indiana L 73-76 39%    
  Tue, Jan 13 56 Oregon W 80-72 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 57 @Northwestern W 75-72 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 49 Washington W 77-70 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 95 @Minnesota W 71-65 72%    
  Tue, Jan 27 1 @Michigan L 72-87 8%    
  Sun, Feb 1 8 Illinois L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Feb 7 139 @Rutgers W 77-66 84%    
  Tue, Feb 10 3 Purdue L 71-76 34%    
  Sat, Feb 14 57 Northwestern W 78-69 79%    
  Tue, Feb 17 19 @Iowa L 68-73 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 122 Penn St. W 85-70 92%    
  Wed, Feb 25 94 Maryland W 81-69 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 40 @USC L 78-79 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 29 @UCLA L 73-75 41%    
  Sun, Mar 8 19 Iowa W 71-70 54%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.0 0.3 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.1 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.8 4.8 6.0 1.9 0.2 13.7 4th
5th 0.4 3.8 6.3 2.3 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 6.1 3.4 0.3 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.2 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.3 4.7 1.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.8 1.5 0.1 6.8 9th
10th 0.4 2.8 2.0 0.2 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.6 7.2 10.8 14.2 16.1 16.2 13.3 8.3 5.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 53.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
17-3 34.5% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1
16-4 9.3% 0.5    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 1.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.1 0.0
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 2.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
16-4 5.1% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 2.9 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.3% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 3.4 0.2 1.1 3.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.3% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 3.9 0.1 0.7 3.7 5.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-7 16.2% 100.0% 1.5% 98.5% 4.7 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 6.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 16.1% 99.9% 0.9% 98.9% 5.5 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.3 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-9 14.2% 99.7% 0.6% 99.2% 6.3 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.9 3.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-10 10.8% 98.4% 0.3% 98.1% 7.3 0.0 0.7 2.1 3.2 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.4%
9-11 7.2% 94.7% 0.1% 94.6% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.4 94.7%
8-12 3.6% 80.7% 80.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.7 80.7%
7-13 1.5% 49.4% 49.4% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 49.4%
6-14 0.7% 11.3% 11.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 11.3%
5-15 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 11.0 0.0 0.2 4.5%
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.1% 1.7% 95.3% 5.4 1.2 4.3 12.9 17.5 18.2 15.9 10.4 6.5 4.9 3.2 2.0 0.1 3.0 97.0%