Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#29
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#76
Pace69.1#176
Improvement-1.5#277

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#30
First Shot+7.3#26
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#184
Layup/Dunks+0.8#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#22
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement-1.2#273

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#39
First Shot+8.8#6
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#348
Layups/Dunks+8.8#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows-0.9#248
Improvement-0.3#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 3.8% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 12.2% 14.6% 5.9%
Top 6 Seed 26.4% 30.5% 15.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.3% 67.9% 47.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.0% 65.5% 45.5%
Average Seed 7.0 6.8 7.6
.500 or above 81.0% 86.1% 67.0%
.500 or above in Conference 65.7% 72.3% 47.5%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.6% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.7% 3.0%
First Four6.0% 5.9% 6.4%
First Round59.7% 65.3% 44.4%
Second Round38.6% 43.0% 26.8%
Sweet Sixteen17.1% 19.5% 10.8%
Elite Eight7.3% 8.3% 4.6%
Final Four2.9% 3.4% 1.8%
Championship Game1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Rutgers (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 11
Quad 25 - 312 - 13
Quad 32 - 013 - 14
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 34   Texas W 80-72 51%     1 - 0 +20.6 +13.9 +6.7
  Nov 11, 2024 229   Youngstown St. W 81-47 96%     2 - 0 +27.2 +8.9 +18.4
  Nov 15, 2024 30   @ Texas A&M L 64-78 39%     2 - 1 +2.0 +2.4 -1.0
  Nov 19, 2024 243   Evansville W 80-30 96%     3 - 1 +42.7 +7.1 +37.3
  Nov 22, 2024 278   Campbell W 104-60 97%     4 - 1 +34.6 +24.8 +8.1
  Nov 25, 2024 310   Green Bay W 102-69 98%     5 - 1 +22.2 +18.0 +3.0
  Nov 29, 2024 36   Pittsburgh L 90-91 OT 64%     5 - 2 +8.3 +13.9 -5.5
  Dec 04, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 59-83 33%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -6.4 -7.8 +2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 58   Rutgers W 78-72 73%    
  Dec 14, 2024 3   Auburn L 74-81 25%    
  Dec 17, 2024 247   Valparaiso W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 9   Kentucky L 77-82 33%    
  Dec 29, 2024 191   Indiana St. W 89-72 94%    
  Jan 03, 2025 27   Michigan St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 06, 2025 112   @ Minnesota W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 09, 2025 22   Oregon W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 14, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 17, 2025 39   Indiana W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 21   @ Purdue L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 27, 2025 50   Iowa W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 02, 2025 14   @ Illinois L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 06, 2025 19   Maryland W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 44   @ Nebraska L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 75   Washington W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 16, 2025 16   Michigan W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 66   Northwestern W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 23, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 106   @ USC W 76-70 71%    
  Mar 04, 2025 44   Nebraska W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 39   @ Indiana L 75-77 43%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.3 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 6.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 3.8 1.3 0.2 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 4.1 0.7 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.4 1.6 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.1 3.2 0.3 6.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.2 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 6.1 12th
13th 0.2 1.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.2 0.1 4.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.2 3.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.2 8.8 11.4 13.1 13.4 12.5 10.4 7.5 4.8 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 97.5% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 91.4% 1.0    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 63.7% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 35.1% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.9% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.4 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.4% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.8 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.8% 99.9% 18.8% 81.2% 3.9 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 7.5% 99.8% 15.0% 84.8% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.4% 98.8% 10.8% 88.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
12-8 12.5% 95.6% 6.0% 89.5% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.8 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 95.3%
11-9 13.4% 84.9% 3.9% 81.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.1 2.0 84.3%
10-10 13.1% 64.5% 2.2% 62.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.3 0.2 4.7 63.7%
9-11 11.4% 29.1% 0.8% 28.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 0.2 8.1 28.5%
8-12 8.8% 8.1% 0.6% 7.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.1 7.6%
7-13 6.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.5%
6-14 4.0% 4.0
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 62.3% 5.9% 56.4% 7.0 0.9 2.1 3.8 5.4 6.7 7.5 8.6 8.2 6.7 6.1 5.7 0.6 37.7 60.0%