Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#22
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#27
Pace66.3#256
Improvement+3.8#14

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#11
First Shot+9.2#9
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#158
Layup/Dunks+1.0#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#29
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement+0.4#143

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#58
First Shot+5.6#37
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#259
Layups/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#15
Freethrows-1.6#285
Improvement+3.4#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.3% 4.5% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 11.6% 12.3% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 33.4% 34.8% 16.9%
Top 6 Seed 57.5% 59.2% 36.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.3% 90.4% 76.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.3% 89.5% 75.0%
Average Seed 5.6 5.5 6.7
.500 or above 96.8% 97.5% 89.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 87.5% 78.4%
Conference Champion 11.8% 12.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four3.1% 3.0% 4.7%
First Round87.8% 89.0% 74.1%
Second Round61.3% 62.5% 47.4%
Sweet Sixteen30.5% 31.3% 20.4%
Elite Eight14.1% 14.6% 8.2%
Final Four6.1% 6.4% 2.8%
Championship Game2.6% 2.7% 1.0%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.4%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 10
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 153   Akron W 67-66 92%     1 - 0 -1.2 +2.4 -3.4
  Nov 12, 2021 221   Niagara W 84-74 95%     2 - 0 +4.5 +9.8 -5.1
  Nov 15, 2021 202   Bowling Green W 89-58 94%     3 - 0 +26.5 +9.5 +16.2
  Nov 18, 2021 35   @ Xavier L 65-71 47%     3 - 1 +8.5 +1.7 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2021 26   Seton Hall W 79-76 51%     4 - 1 +16.4 +16.2 +0.3
  Nov 24, 2021 30   Florida L 68-71 56%     4 - 2 +9.1 +3.1 +5.9
  Nov 30, 2021 8   Duke W 71-66 47%     5 - 2 +19.4 +4.8 +14.6
  Dec 05, 2021 92   @ Penn St. W 76-64 69%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +20.7 +11.7 +9.6
  Dec 08, 2021 144   Towson W 77-62 92%    
  Dec 11, 2021 28   Wisconsin W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 18, 2021 15   Kentucky L 72-73 44%    
  Dec 21, 2021 343   Tennessee Martin W 87-57 99.7%   
  Dec 28, 2021 282   New Orleans W 89-66 98%    
  Jan 02, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 06, 2022 31   @ Indiana L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 09, 2022 39   Northwestern W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 13, 2022 28   @ Wisconsin L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 16, 2022 92   Penn St. W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 22, 2022 109   Nebraska W 80-67 87%    
  Jan 27, 2022 71   @ Minnesota W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 30, 2022 1   @ Purdue L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 03, 2022 20   Iowa W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 06, 2022 60   Maryland W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 09, 2022 102   @ Rutgers W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 21   @ Michigan L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 15, 2022 71   Minnesota W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 31   Indiana W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 24, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 27, 2022 60   @ Maryland W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 03, 2022 18   Michigan St. W 72-69 59%    
  Mar 06, 2022 21   Michigan W 70-67 60%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.3 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 11.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.9 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.8 5.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.9 11.4 13.5 13.9 13.2 10.9 7.6 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.2% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 88.3% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
17-3 69.7% 3.2    2.1 1.0 0.1
16-4 43.2% 3.3    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 19.1% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 6.6 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.6% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.1 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.6% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.7 0.9 2.3 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.9% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.6 0.3 1.5 3.5 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.2% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 4.5 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.6 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.9% 99.9% 8.3% 91.6% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.8 3.8 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.5% 99.3% 5.5% 93.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 11.4% 96.1% 3.3% 92.8% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.7 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 95.9%
10-10 8.9% 86.1% 1.8% 84.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.2 85.8%
9-11 5.9% 56.6% 1.1% 55.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.6 56.1%
8-12 3.7% 23.5% 0.7% 22.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.8 23.0%
7-13 2.1% 5.8% 0.7% 5.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 5.2%
6-14 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.4%
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 89.3% 8.5% 80.8% 5.6 4.3 7.3 10.7 11.1 12.4 11.7 10.7 8.1 5.1 3.4 3.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.7 88.3%