Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.1 115
Expected Predictive Rating +2.9 118
Pace 69.0 167
Improvement -3.2 306

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 78 B- B- B B- C+
Defense C- 205 D+ D B B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 78 B- 63% 78 +4.2 45
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 208 A- 46% 22 +0.7 135
Three Pointers 39% 227 C 34% 200 -1.3 230
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 115 B- +3.0 82
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 77
Second Chance C- 29.4% 212 A 1.22 15 B- 0.36 83
Turnovers B 14.7% 54
Freethrows B- 0.33 116 B- 75% 107 B- 0.24 96
Total Offense B- +4.2 78

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 178 C+ 10.4% 143
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 324 C 4.9% 178
Three Pointers C+ 85% 171 B- 0.6% 104
Total C- 52% 250 C 5.6% 185

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 240 C- 60% 222 -0.5 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 254 C+ 37% 139 -1.0 106
Three Pointers 45% 61 D- 38% 329 +4.6 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 206 D+ +2.8 291
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 280
Second Chance C+ 28.7% 109 F 1.27 365 D 0.36 309
Turnovers B 19.1% 53
Freethrows A- 0.22 11 D 75% 328 B+ 0.17 22
Total Defense C- -1.0 205

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 214 D- 6.5% 338
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 275 C+ 5.5% 128
Three Pointers C+ 83% 136 D 0.2% 329
Total D+ 59% 260 D- 3.5% 332

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 84 18.5 329
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 57 0.15 101
Improvement -2.3 #299 -0.9 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 134 117 104
Conference Record 2 - 18 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 18 17 15
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 76% 38% 78%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 4.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 10
Quad 21 - 62 - 16
Quad 32 - 34 - 19
Quad 48 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 266 Fairfield W 76 - 68 87% -2  21% 1 - 0 C -1 D -4 D+ D+ A+ B +4 B- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 325 @New Haven W 87 - 43 84% +18  83% 2 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +22 B A+ A+ A+ +19 B+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 11 155 Navy W 80 - 71 72% +6  89% 3 - 0 B- +6 B +7 C A+ A C -1 C D- A
 Sat, Nov 15 212 La Salle W 83 - 69 72% +11  87% 4 - 0 B +11 A+ +16 A+ C- A+ D+ -4 D F A
 Wed, Nov 19 164 Harvard W 84 - 80 73% +2  60% 5 - 0 C +1 A+ +16 A- A- A+ F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 64 Providence L 65 - 77 29% -3  31% 5 - 1 C- -3 F -11 F C+ C- A- +8 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 25 256 Boston University W 96 - 87 86% +12  92% 6 - 1 C +1 A+ +22 A A A+ F -20 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 290 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 89% +21  89% 7 - 1 A +21 C- -2 B- A+ F A+ +19 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 191 Campbell W 87 - 76 78% +5  73% 8 - 1 B- +6 B- +4 B+ F A+ C+ +2 D D+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 37 @Indiana L 72 - 113 11% -28  1% 8 - 2 0 - 1 F -24 C -0 C+ B+ D- F -22 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 11 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 11% -1  33% 8 - 3 0 - 2 B+ +12 B +7 B A A B+ +5 C+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 101 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 42% -16  0% 8 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F D+ D- -8 F C+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 350 NC Central W 90 - 67 95% +8  75% 9 - 4 B- +7 B+ +9 A+ F B- C -1 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 5 Illinois L 65 - 73 7% -10  0% 9 - 5 0 - 3 B+ +12 C- -2 D A- B+ A+ +13 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 4% -5  17% 9 - 6 0 - 4 A +22 B+ +7 D- A+ A A+ +15 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 8 @Purdue L 85 - 93 3% -5  9% 9 - 7 0 - 5 A- +16 A+ +23 A+ A+ B+ D- -7 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 39 UCLA L 60 - 71 24% -3  17% 9 - 8 0 - 6 C -1 C- -1 B- F C C -1 A F A+
 Sun, Jan 18 107 @Maryland L 73 - 96 35% -15  7% 9 - 9 0 - 7 F+ -16 B +6 A F A+ F -23 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 29 Wisconsin L 71 - 98 20% -20  11% 9 - 10 0 - 8 F+ -15 C- -2 D- B A+ F -13 F A D
 Mon, Jan 26 34 @Ohio St. L 78 - 84 10% -8  3% 9 - 11 0 - 9 B+ +11 A- +10 A A+ F C+ +1 D- A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 67 @Northwestern L 73 - 94 22% -7  6% 9 - 12 0 - 10 D -10 B- +5 A- F B F -15 F F C+
 Sun, Feb 1 66 Minnesota W 77 - 75 41% +6  94% 10 - 12 1 - 10 B- +8 A +13 B- A+ B+ D -5 C- F B
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 69 - 110 1% -27  1% 10 - 13 1 - 11 D -11 B+ +8 B- D- A+ F -18 F F D
 Sun, Feb 8 53 USC L 75 - 77 34% +1  41% 10 - 14 1 - 12 B- +5 C+ +2 A+ B- F B- +3 A- F A-
 Wed, Feb 11 44 @Washington W 63 - 60 14% +1  54% 11 - 14 2 - 12 A- +18 C- -1 B+ C- D A+ +19 A+ B B+
 Sat, Feb 14 91 @Oregon L 72 - 83 28% -5  18% 11 - 15 2 - 13 C- -2 B +6 C- B- B+ F+ -9 F B A+
 Wed, Feb 18 109 Rutgers L 72 - 85 59% -13  0% 11 - 16 2 - 14 D- -12 C- -1 A D F F -11 F B B
 Sat, Feb 21 13 @Nebraska L 65 - 84 4%
 Sat, Feb 28 26 Iowa L 68 - 78 18%
 Wed, Mar 4 34 Ohio St. L 75 - 83 22%
 Sun, Mar 8 109 @Rutgers L 74 - 78 36%
Totals 12 - 19 3 - 17 +3 B- +4 C- B- C+ C- -1 C B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- A- C B- 42% 35% 39% C+ B- C- A B- B B- B- B- C- C- C+ D- D+ 37% 18% 45% C- D+ C+ F D B A- D B+
1.15 63% 46% 34% +3 +1 1.09 29% 1.2 .36 15% .33 75% .24 1.10 60% 37% 38% +3 0 1.08 29% 1.3 .36 19% .22 75% .25
Nov
3		 Fairfield D C+ C F+ D 52% 15% 33% C+ D+ F A D+ A+ A+ F B- B F C+ A+ B 38% 13% 48% D- B- A- A- A- F A+ F B+
1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24 0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13
Nov
8		 New Haven A+ F A+ A+ B 49% 10% 41% B+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C C+ A+ B+ D- A+ A 36% 18% 46% D+ B+ B- D+ C A+ A- A+ A-
1.40 48% 80% 43% +5 +2 1.16 40% 1.6 .63 10% .28 75% .21 0.69 50% 43% 22% -10 0 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 31% .19 63% .12
Nov
11		 Navy B B- C- F+ C 36% 30% 34% C- C B- A+ A+ A B+ B- B+ C D+ C B- C- 41% 27% 33% C+ C B- F D- A B+ F C-
1.17 63% 38% 28% -1 -1 0.96 33% 1.5 .52 13% .30 78% .23 1.03 60% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.4 .38 23% .27 93% .25
Nov
15		 La Salle A+ A- F A+ A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ D- A C- A+ D- D D- D+ B F+ F F+ 36% 30% 34% B D B F F A B- F C-
1.30 66% 20% 53% +12 +3 1.32 23% 1.3 .31 11% .19 64% .12 1.08 50% 46% 40% +3 -1 1.05 30% 1.6 .48 24% .31 80% .25
Nov
19		 Harvard A+ A+ D F+ A- 51% 12% 37% B+ A- A+ D A- A+ A+ D- A+ F F B F F 38% 13% 49% D+ F F F F B- A F B+
1.32 76% 33% 28% +5 +2 1.16 45% 0.9 .41 11% .44 68% .30 1.25 72% 33% 43% +12 +1 1.28 38% 1.6 .58 20% .16 100% .16
Nov
22		 Providence F F A- B- F 40% 25% 36% C F B D+ C+ C- C A+ B- A- B F A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% D- A+ C+ F D F B C- B
0.92 24% 46% 37% -10 0 0.81 33% 0.9 .30 16% .27 81% .22 1.10 57% 50% 19% -12 +2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 10% .30 79% .24
Nov
25		 Boston University A+ B- A+ A+ A 48% 16% 36% B A B- A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 23% 13% 65% C+ F C+ F F F+ B+ C+ B+
1.51 62% 71% 44% +12 +1 1.30 33% 1.4 .47 5% .66 70% .46 1.37 82% 67% 45% +20 0 1.42 25% 1.7 .42 14% .24 69% .16
Nov
29		 Sacred Heart C- B F A+ B- 55% 18% 27% B- B- A A+ A+ F A+ F+ A+ A+ A- A+ D B 34% 18% 48% C- B- A A+ A+ A+ A- F B
1.16 68% 11% 50% +7 +2 1.20 41% 1.4 .59 22% .48 66% .31 0.76 47% 22% 38% -4 0 0.94 18% 0.7 .12 31% .21 91% .19
Dec
2		 Campbell B- C+ A+ B B+ 52% 23% 25% B- B+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ C+ B- A+ F D 52% 12% 36% D D D- C D+ A B A+ A+
1.19 63% 58% 38% +9 +1 1.21 20% 0.3 .07 10% .38 88% .33 1.04 54% 17% 44% +1 +2 1.08 38% 1.0 .38 23% .34 53% .18
Dec
9		 Indiana C C+ B+ F B- 37% 33% 31% C- C+ C- A+ B+ D- A- F+ B- F F F F F 44% 4% 53% D- F A- F F C- A D+ A
0.98 56% 44% 27% -2 -2 0.94 25% 1.5 .38 19% .37 68% .25 1.54 84% 100% 53% +29 +3 1.65 24% 2.3 .53 14% .24 80% .19
Dec
13		 Michigan St. B B- C- D+ B 33% 21% 46% B- B B A+ A A F A+ D- B+ A+ A+ F B- 41% 20% 39% D C+ B- D C A+ D- F F
1.04 58% 33% 31% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 13% .15 89% .13 1.10 44% 22% 53% +2 0 1.07 38% 1.2 .45 25% .40 86% .35
Dec
21		 Pittsburgh F D+ C+ F F 39% 20% 41% C F F+ F F D+ F F F D- A+ F F F 43% 12% 45% D F B+ D C+ D B A+ B+
0.71 53% 40% 20% -10 0 0.82 18% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11 1.23 41% 67% 52% +8 +1 1.22 30% 1.1 .33 14% .25 57% .14
Dec
29		 NC Central B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 10% 60% C+ A+ F F F B- F B F+ C F C- C F 36% 30% 34% B+ F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17 0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09
Jan
3		 Illinois C- F+ C+ F F+ 28% 14% 58% A D B A+ A- B+ A- D B A+ C A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% B A+ A- A+ A+ B F D+ F
0.96 44% 38% 24% -13 0 0.77 29% 1.1 .33 10% .23 64% .15 1.08 63% 25% 24% -8 0 0.86 36% 0.9 .33 15% .49 82% .40
Jan
6		 Michigan B+ D- C+ F F+ 26% 26% 47% C+ D- A- A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% C A+ A+ D+ A+ B- B+ C B
1.01 43% 36% 16% -17 -2 0.64 33% 1.5 .49 14% .37 78% .29 1.04 61% 50% 26% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.4 .29 17% .32 74% .24
Jan
10		 Purdue A+ A+ C A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A A+ C- A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ B- D- F C+ D C- 34% 17% 48% D+ D+ A+ F D+ F A- A+ A+
1.27 76% 38% 42% +12 0 1.27 21% 2.2 .46 15% .18 90% .16 1.39 80% 40% 39% +12 0 1.26 26% 1.9 .48 4% .22 43% .09
Jan
14		 UCLA C- A- A+ F C+ 36% 17% 48% B B- D- F F C A- A+ A+ C A+ A C A 18% 18% 64% C- A F F F A+ F F F
1.00 67% 71% 20% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.7 .15 20% .35 94% .33 1.18 43% 29% 36% -2 -1 0.95 42% 1.7 .73 23% .46 100% .46
Jan
18		 Maryland B A C A A 35% 17% 48% C A F C- F A+ A- D+ B F C- A F F 24% 14% 63% B- F F+ F F C- B+ C+ B
1.11 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.0 .13 11% .36 67% .24 1.47 58% 29% 53% +17 0 1.35 41% 1.3 .55 17% .31 71% .22
Jan
22		 Wisconsin C- F B- F D 27% 33% 40% D- D- B- B B A+ A+ B- A F F A- F F 37% 10% 53% C- F D- A+ A D A+ B- A+
1.00 40% 44% 27% -7 -2 0.84 27% 1.1 .29 10% .36 74% .27 1.38 73% 33% 45% +14 +1 1.32 37% 0.7 .26 10% .23 73% .17
Jan
26		 Ohio St. A- F A+ A A 25% 23% 52% C+ A B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F F C F 27% 33% 41% A D- A+ B- A+ D C C+ C
1.14 45% 60% 39% +6 -1 1.11 36% 1.6 .56 26% .42 86% .36 1.23 77% 69% 35% +16 -2 1.29 19% 1.0 .19 13% .35 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Northwestern B- A- F B- B+ 50% 15% 35% A A- F A+ F B A- A+ A+ F F+ D- F F 42% 20% 38% D+ F D F F C+ A+ A A+
1.08 67% 14% 35% +2 +2 1.08 11% 1.3 .14 16% .35 85% .30 1.38 70% 45% 52% +17 0 1.36 33% 1.6 .52 13% .15 67% .10
Feb
1		 Minnesota A C C- B- C+ 45% 22% 33% B+ B- A A+ A+ B+ F A+ D+ D F F A C 36% 5% 59% D- C- C- F F B B- F D
1.21 57% 36% 35% 0 0 1.02 38% 1.7 .63 16% .17 89% .15 1.18 81% 50% 27% +3 +2 1.11 32% 1.8 .56 19% .33 82% .27
Feb
5		 Michigan B+ A+ B- F C+ 37% 30% 33% B- B- D+ F D- A+ A+ A A+ F F+ B+ F F 46% 11% 43% B- F F F F D A+ F B
0.97 65% 38% 11% -9 -1 0.81 21% 0.7 .14 7% .39 81% .32 1.54 73% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.39 48% 2.0 .96 13% .27 88% .24
Feb
8		 USC C+ C+ A+ B A 54% 13% 33% A A+ C+ B B- F C- F D- B- C+ C- A+ A 44% 24% 32% C- A- C F F A- A+ C A
1.04 57% 71% 35% +5 +2 1.15 29% 1.0 .29 24% .27 60% .16 1.06 59% 42% 25% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.8 .65 21% .31 72% .23
Feb
11		 Washington C- A+ B+ A A+ 16% 57% 27% F B+ F A+ C- D D- B D A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B- B- B B+ B A+ A
0.96 75% 43% 38% +7 -6 1.04 15% 1.5 .22 18% .21 73% .15 0.92 64% 18% 33% -6 -3 0.85 34% 1.1 .37 18% .26 57% .15
Feb
14		 Oregon B C+ B- F C- 33% 29% 38% C- C- C+ B+ B- B+ A+ A A+ F+ C A+ F F 34% 10% 56% D+ F C+ B+ B A+ F F F
1.10 56% 43% 28% -3 -1 0.94 30% 1.0 .30 14% .42 83% .35 1.26 57% 25% 57% +17 +1 1.39 35% 1.0 .35 23% .49 84% .41
Feb
18		 Rutgers C- A+ A+ F A 33% 26% 40% D+ A F C+ D F A+ B- A+ F F F C F 42% 27% 31% D- F A+ F B B D- F F
1.06 93% 64% 18% +8 -1 1.17 23% 1.0 .23 22% .41 77% .32 1.25 70% 62% 33% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .33 18% .41 87% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 1.1 1.5 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.4 5.8 0.8 7.0 15th
16th 7.1 6.8 0.1 14.0 16th
17th 9.0 24.7 1.8 35.4 17th
18th 31.2 9.5 0.1 40.8 18th
Total 40.2 41.8 15.6 2.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 15.6% 15.6
3-17 41.8% 41.8
2-18 40.2% 40.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 40.2%