Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#31
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#36
Pace76.2#31
Improvement-1.5#269

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#33
First Shot+5.4#45
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#103
Layup/Dunks+5.6#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#295
Freethrows+3.9#21
Improvement-1.4#287

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#31
First Shot+4.6#55
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#80
Layups/Dunks+3.9#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
Freethrows-0.3#214
Improvement+0.0#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 5.3% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 13.8% 19.0% 8.2%
Top 6 Seed 29.7% 38.4% 20.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.2% 81.7% 64.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.4% 80.1% 62.3%
Average Seed 7.0 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 98.2% 99.5% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 88.0% 68.6%
Conference Champion 10.3% 14.9% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four5.5% 4.3% 6.9%
First Round70.4% 79.5% 60.5%
Second Round43.9% 51.3% 35.9%
Sweet Sixteen18.6% 22.6% 14.2%
Elite Eight7.9% 9.8% 5.9%
Final Four3.3% 4.2% 2.3%
Championship Game1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
National Champion0.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Next Game: Rutgers (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 10
Quad 35 - 015 - 10
Quad 47 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 322   Binghamton W 108-66 98%     1 - 0 +30.0 +24.5 +3.7
  Nov 08, 2024 296   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 103-54 97%     2 - 0 +39.1 +9.2 +23.3
  Nov 12, 2024 339   St. Francis (PA) W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +16.3 +0.2 +12.1
  Nov 15, 2024 129   Virginia Tech W 86-64 85%     4 - 0 +23.7 +11.1 +11.5
  Nov 20, 2024 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 102-89 92%     5 - 0 +10.6 +22.2 -12.0
  Nov 25, 2024 201   Fordham W 85-66 91%     6 - 0 +17.1 +10.8 +6.0
  Nov 26, 2024 28   Clemson L 67-75 49%     6 - 1 +5.1 +1.8 +3.2
  Dec 01, 2024 331   Buffalo W 87-64 98%     7 - 1 +10.2 +7.2 +3.1
  Dec 05, 2024 21   Purdue W 81-70 55%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +22.5 +9.5 +12.7
  Dec 10, 2024 58   @ Rutgers W 79-78 52%    
  Dec 14, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 89-53 100.0%   
  Dec 21, 2024 167   @ Drexel W 78-67 84%    
  Dec 29, 2024 279   Penn W 88-66 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 66   Northwestern W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 05, 2025 39   Indiana W 81-77 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 14   @ Illinois L 77-82 31%    
  Jan 12, 2025 22   Oregon W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 74-77 38%    
  Jan 20, 2025 58   Rutgers W 82-76 72%    
  Jan 24, 2025 50   @ Iowa L 83-84 49%    
  Jan 27, 2025 16   @ Michigan L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 30, 2025 29   Ohio St. W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 04, 2025 112   Minnesota W 75-63 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 11, 2025 106   @ USC W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 75   Washington W 81-73 78%    
  Feb 19, 2025 44   Nebraska W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 112   @ Minnesota W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 39   @ Indiana L 78-80 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 19   Maryland W 78-77 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 76-79 41%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 10.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.0 1.4 0.2 9.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.5 2.2 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 3.7 0.5 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.5 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.2 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.9 1.6 0.1 3.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 6.0 8.7 11.2 13.5 14.0 13.2 10.6 7.6 4.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 98.6% 1.1    1.1 0.1
17-3 89.1% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 65.0% 3.1    1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 34.8% 2.6    0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.6% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 5.5 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.4% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.7 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.7% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.6 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.6% 100.0% 13.4% 86.5% 4.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.6% 99.4% 12.3% 87.1% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-7 13.2% 97.3% 7.2% 90.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 97.1%
12-8 14.0% 91.6% 3.8% 87.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.1 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.2 91.2%
11-9 13.5% 80.0% 2.4% 77.6% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 2.8 2.9 1.4 0.1 2.7 79.5%
10-10 11.2% 59.6% 1.3% 58.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.1 1.8 0.1 4.5 59.1%
9-11 8.7% 30.9% 0.5% 30.3% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.1 6.0 30.5%
8-12 6.0% 9.0% 0.4% 8.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.4 8.6%
7-13 3.5% 1.4% 0.2% 1.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 1.2%
6-14 1.9% 1.9
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 73.2% 6.1% 67.1% 7.0 1.2 2.4 4.2 6.0 7.3 8.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 8.3 5.6 0.4 26.9 71.4%