Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#92
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#157
Pace59.9#346
Improvement+1.4#79

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#104
First Shot+2.1#115
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#162
Layup/Dunks-0.9#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#68
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-0.1#195

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#77
First Shot+0.7#151
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#39
Layups/Dunks+5.7#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#341
Freethrows+3.3#16
Improvement+1.6#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 7.5% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 7.2% 2.5%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 9.6
.500 or above 21.5% 26.3% 10.3%
.500 or above in Conference 11.1% 12.7% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.2% 21.0% 28.6%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 0.7%
First Round5.4% 6.7% 2.3%
Second Round2.4% 3.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 23 - 45 - 17
Quad 33 - 29 - 19
Quad 45 - 014 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 236   Youngstown St. W 75-59 88%     1 - 0 +9.0 +4.9 +5.9
  Nov 15, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts L 56-81 48%     1 - 1 -18.7 -15.8 -4.7
  Nov 18, 2021 337   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-59 97%     2 - 1 -0.8 -0.8 +1.1
  Nov 22, 2021 188   Cornell W 85-74 82%     3 - 1 +7.0 +5.2 +1.4
  Nov 26, 2021 11   LSU L 63-68 OT 15%     3 - 2 +11.6 +1.0 +10.4
  Nov 27, 2021 149   Oregon St. W 60-45 66%     4 - 2 +16.4 +3.0 +17.3
  Dec 01, 2021 100   Miami (FL) L 58-63 65%     4 - 3 -3.2 -9.6 +5.8
  Dec 05, 2021 22   Ohio St. L 64-76 31%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -1.3 -3.0 +1.2
  Dec 08, 2021 120   Wagner W 65-60 70%    
  Dec 11, 2021 18   @ Michigan St. L 59-70 14%    
  Dec 18, 2021 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 56-60 37%    
  Dec 22, 2021 273   Quinnipiac W 75-60 92%    
  Dec 29, 2021 356   Delaware St. W 80-52 99.5%   
  Jan 02, 2022 31   Indiana L 62-65 38%    
  Jan 05, 2022 39   @ Northwestern L 61-69 23%    
  Jan 08, 2022 1   Purdue L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 11, 2022 102   Rutgers W 63-59 65%    
  Jan 16, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 60-71 16%    
  Jan 19, 2022 71   Minnesota W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 20   @ Iowa L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 26, 2022 31   @ Indiana L 59-68 21%    
  Jan 31, 2022 20   Iowa L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 28   @ Wisconsin L 56-66 19%    
  Feb 08, 2022 21   Michigan L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 12, 2022 71   @ Minnesota L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 15, 2022 18   Michigan St. L 62-67 31%    
  Feb 21, 2022 60   @ Maryland L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 25, 2022 39   Northwestern L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 28, 2022 109   Nebraska W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 03, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 61-73 15%    
  Mar 06, 2022 102   @ Rutgers L 60-62 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.9 4.8 1.2 0.0 14.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.1 5.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 16.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 3.7 6.2 4.6 1.6 0.2 17.3 13th
14th 0.4 1.8 3.8 4.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 14.4 14th
Total 0.4 1.9 4.8 8.6 12.5 14.1 15.1 13.1 10.7 7.7 5.2 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 10.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 27.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.4% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.9% 93.5% 4.7% 88.8% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.2%
12-8 1.6% 79.6% 3.0% 76.6% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 79.0%
11-9 2.9% 55.8% 1.4% 54.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 55.2%
10-10 5.2% 25.5% 0.5% 25.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.9 25.1%
9-11 7.7% 5.1% 0.5% 4.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3 4.7%
8-12 10.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.4%
7-13 13.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 0.0%
6-14 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 15.1
5-15 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 14.1
4-16 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.5
3-17 8.6% 8.6
2-18 4.8% 4.8
1-19 1.9% 1.9
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 6.1% 0.3% 5.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.9 5.8%