Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#45
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#50
Pace63.6#303
Improvement+0.1#180

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#30
First Shot+9.2#5
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#328
Layup/Dunks-1.9#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.3#3
Freethrows-2.0#318
Improvement+0.6#82

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#77
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#46
Layups/Dunks+3.5#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#194
Freethrows+2.0#48
Improvement-0.5#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 4.2% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.0% 48.7% 28.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.2% 46.1% 25.0%
Average Seed 9.2 9.0 9.6
.500 or above 97.7% 99.5% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 51.0% 64.2% 32.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four9.1% 10.1% 7.6%
First Round35.6% 43.7% 24.4%
Second Round16.7% 21.1% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 6.6% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.4% 1.2%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 8
Quad 23 - 47 - 12
Quad 36 - 013 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 244   Winthrop W 93-68 94%     1 - 0 +18.0 +12.6 +5.2
  Nov 10, 2022 333   Loyola Maryland W 90-65 97%     2 - 0 +12.0 +19.2 -5.2
  Nov 14, 2022 86   Butler W 68-62 76%     3 - 0 +9.0 -1.4 +10.5
  Nov 17, 2022 87   Furman W 73-68 68%     4 - 0 +10.8 +6.6 +4.6
  Nov 18, 2022 49   Virginia Tech L 59-61 52%     4 - 1 +8.0 -3.8 +11.5
  Nov 20, 2022 113   Colorado St. W 68-56 75%     5 - 1 +15.4 -2.7 +18.6
  Nov 25, 2022 261   Lafayette W 70-57 95%     6 - 1 +4.9 +6.0 +0.7
  Nov 29, 2022 60   @ Clemson L 94-101 2OT 46%     6 - 2 +4.6 +11.9 -6.2
  Dec 07, 2022 39   Michigan St. L 58-67 57%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -0.3 -8.1 +7.5
  Dec 10, 2022 17   @ Illinois W 74-59 27%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +31.9 +18.1 +15.2
  Dec 18, 2022 281   Canisius W 97-67 96%     8 - 3 +20.9 +21.8 -0.4
  Dec 22, 2022 133   Quinnipiac W 77-68 85%     9 - 3 +8.1 +4.4 +3.7
  Dec 29, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 60-46 99%     10 - 3 -3.3 -17.4 +15.0
  Jan 01, 2023 30   Iowa W 83-79 53%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +13.8 +10.6 +3.2
  Jan 04, 2023 58   @ Michigan L 69-79 45%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +1.7 +5.3 -4.1
  Jan 08, 2023 4   Purdue L 63-76 32%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +2.4 +4.6 -4.0
  Jan 11, 2023 21   Indiana W 85-66 48%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +30.0 +23.1 +8.3
  Jan 17, 2023 57   @ Wisconsin L 60-63 45%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +8.8 +5.2 +3.1
  Jan 21, 2023 94   Nebraska W 76-65 78%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +13.5 +10.2 +3.8
  Jan 24, 2023 20   @ Rutgers L 45-65 28%     13 - 7 4 - 5 -3.5 -9.1 +2.9
  Jan 29, 2023 58   Michigan W 83-61 66%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +28.3 +20.5 +9.9
  Feb 01, 2023 4   @ Purdue L 60-80 17%     14 - 8 5 - 6 +0.8 +6.9 -9.7
  Feb 05, 2023 94   @ Nebraska W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 08, 2023 57   Wisconsin W 65-61 66%    
  Feb 11, 2023 31   @ Maryland L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 14, 2023 17   Illinois L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 18, 2023 173   @ Minnesota W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 23, 2023 29   @ Ohio St. L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 26, 2023 20   Rutgers L 64-65 49%    
  Mar 01, 2023 50   @ Northwestern L 66-68 41%    
  Mar 05, 2023 31   Maryland W 68-67 54%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.3 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.7 3.4 0.9 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 3.6 2.9 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.9 6.3 0.8 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 4.8 4.6 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 1.0 8.9 1.3 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.2 5.3 6.7 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 9.7 1.9 0.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 6.0 5.9 0.1 12.5 10th
11th 0.2 2.8 6.7 1.0 0.0 10.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 3.7 1.6 0.0 6.5 12th
13th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.3 2.1 7.5 16.1 23.1 23.5 16.6 8.1 2.5 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 6.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.3% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.5% 98.8% 7.3% 91.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
12-8 8.1% 92.9% 6.6% 86.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 92.4%
11-9 16.6% 76.1% 5.6% 70.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.5 3.6 0.9 0.0 4.0 74.7%
10-10 23.5% 52.0% 4.5% 47.5% 10.0 0.0 0.7 2.2 5.5 3.8 0.1 11.3 49.7%
9-11 23.1% 16.7% 4.2% 12.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 19.2 13.0%
8-12 16.1% 4.5% 3.5% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 15.4 1.0%
7-13 7.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3
6-14 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-15 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.0% 4.5% 35.5% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.6 6.5 8.2 9.9 7.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 60.0 37.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.7 3.4 38.9 40.3 16.8 0.7
Lose Out 0.3% 3.0% 16.0 3.0