Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.2 4
Expected Predictive Rating +19.5 15
Pace 73.5 55
Improvement +6.0 11

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 14 B A B- B A-
Defense A+ 4 A A+ C B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 12 A- 67% 26 +9.1 3
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 343 B 43% 51 -3.3 331
Three Pointers 42% 151 D 30% 317 -1.5 239
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.9 10 B- +2.2 98
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 64
Second Chance A+ 43.8% 2 C+ 1.07 125 A 0.47 6
Turnovers B- 15.5% 93
Freethrows B+ 0.36 34 C 72% 193 B 0.26 52
Total Offense A +10.8 14

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 64 A- 6.5% 14
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 116 A 0.8% 4
Three Pointers C- 83% 221 B- 0.5% 93
Total B- 60% 82 A- 3.4% 11

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 242 A+ 45% 4 -5.8 27
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 7 B 34% 48 +2.8 348
Three Pointers 32% 360 B- 32% 91 -5.4 5
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.5 15 A -7.0 8
1st FG Attempt A 0.85 6
Second Chance A+ 20.6% 2 A+ 0.70 1 A+ 0.14 2
Turnovers C 17.0% 172
Freethrows B- 0.27 66 B+ 69% 31 B 0.18 47
Total Defense A+ +12.4 4

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 13 A- 17.5% 25
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 102 C 4.7% 182
Three Pointers A+ 70% 4 B+ 2.0% 29
Total A 41% 4 A- 8.6% 23

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.3 27 18.1 305
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 7 0.10 15
Improvement +3.4 #41 +2.7 #57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 8 5 2
Conference Record 13 - 5 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 2nd Round Elite 8 Champion

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3% 3% 1%
#1 Seed 25% 27% 12%
Top 2 Seed 65% 68% 43%
Top 4 Seed 98% 99% 95%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.2 2.1 2.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 97% 98% 88%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round99% 99% 98%
Sweet Sixteen78% 78% 73%
Elite Eight51% 52% 45%
Final Four30% 30% 25%
Championship Game16% 17% 13%
National Champion9% 9% 7%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 211 - 6
Quad 27 - 118 - 8
Quad 33 - 021 - 8
Quad 45 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 3 Arizona L 87 - 93 47% -1  35% 0 - 1 A +18 A +12 A- A- C A- +7 B A+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 339 North Florida W 104 - 64 100% +21  96% 1 - 1 A+ +25 B- +4 F A+ F A+ +17 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 86 Florida St. W 78 - 76 95% +1  49% 2 - 1 B- +6 D- -7 C- F+ D A+ +12 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 40 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 83% +7  92% 3 - 1 A+ +27 B +6 B C+ B- A+ +20 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 162 Merrimack W 80 - 45 98% +24  99% 4 - 1 A+ +32 A- +10 C- A+ C+ A+ +24 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 50 TCU L 80 - 84 88% +2  70% 4 - 2 B- +7 B- +5 D+ A+ F B- +2 B B- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 64 Providence W 90 - 78 91% +9  93% 5 - 2 A +21 A- +10 D+ A+ A- A +10 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 2 @Duke L 66 - 67 35% -5  4% 5 - 3 A+ +26 A- +9 C+ A+ C A+ +17 A A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 9 Connecticut L 73 - 77 64% -2  19% 5 - 4 A- +16 A- +10 A D B B+ +6 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 80 George Washington W 80 - 70 93% +8  92% 6 - 4 A- +17 C+ +3 A C- C- A+ +14 A A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 355 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100% +25  97% 7 - 4 A+ +23 A +13 A A+ D- A +9 B+ A D
 Sun, Dec 21 237 Colgate W 90 - 60 99% +17  94% 8 - 4 A +23 A+ +17 B+ A+ B- A- +8 C- A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 255 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 99% +21  95% 9 - 4 B+ +14 A- +9 B- A+ F+ B- +3 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 49 @Missouri L 74 - 76 81% -1  46% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B+ +12 B +6 C C A+ B+ +6 C+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 6 36 Georgia W 92 - 77 87% +6  79% 10 - 5 1 - 1 A+ +26 A- +11 B A B+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 16 Tennessee W 91 - 67 77% +10  69% 11 - 5 2 - 1 A+ +40 A+ +19 A+ A+ A A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 51 @Oklahoma W 96 - 79 82% +16  96% 12 - 5 3 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +23 B+ A+ A+ A- +8 B A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 14 @Vanderbilt W 98 - 94 55% +2  60% 13 - 5 4 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +28 A A+ A+ C- -3 C+ A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 54 LSU W 79 - 61 92% +10  87% 14 - 5 5 - 1 A+ +25 B+ +9 C A+ C+ A+ +17 A+ A B
 Sat, Jan 24 33 Auburn L 67 - 76 86% -8  2% 14 - 6 5 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -2 C- C- B- B +4 B- A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 94 @South Carolina W 95 - 48 91% +24  99% 15 - 6 6 - 2 A+ +56 A+ +25 A+ A+ C A+ +31 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 19 Alabama W 100 - 77 78% +11  90% 16 - 6 7 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +18 A A A+ A+ +18 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 35 @Texas A&M W 86 - 67 72% +15  98% 17 - 6 8 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +16 B B A+ A+ +20 A+ A D
 Wed, Feb 11 36 @Georgia W 86 - 66 72% +13  99% 18 - 6 9 - 2 A+ +37 A- +10 A+ C B- A+ +25 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 25 Kentucky W 92 - 83 84% +9  100% 19 - 6 10 - 2 A +22 A +14 A+ A- B+ A- +7 B A+ A-
 Tue, Feb 17 94 South Carolina W 76 - 62 96% +11  96% 20 - 6 11 - 2 A- +17 B +6 D- A+ F A+ +11 A+ D B-
 Sat, Feb 21 73 @Mississippi W 80 - 68 87%
 Wed, Feb 25 27 @Texas W 83 - 78 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 17 Arkansas W 87 - 79 77%
 Tue, Mar 3 69 Mississippi St. W 86 - 68 96%
 Sat, Mar 7 25 @Kentucky W 79 - 75 67%
Totals 24 - 7 15 - 3 +23 A +11 A B- A- A+ +12 D C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- B D B- 47% 20% 42% A- B A+ C+ A B- B+ C B A+ A+ B B- A 37% 31% 32% A- A A+ A+ A+ C B- B+ B
1.24 67% 43% 30% +2 +2 1.11 44% 1.1 .47 15% .36 72% .26 0.91 45% 34% 32% -7 -1 0.85 21% 0.7 .14 17% .27 69% .25
Nov
3		 Arizona A A F C- B 48% 14% 38% A+ A- A+ C A- C A+ C- A+ A- C- A F B 55% 42% 4% B+ B B+ A+ A+ B F F F
1.07 64% 0% 32% -3 +2 0.98 37% 0.8 .30 18% .45 67% .30 1.14 66% 32% 100% +5 -2 1.09 35% 0.6 .21 17% .56 82% .46
Nov
6		 North Florida B- B A+ F F 47% 3% 50% A F A+ A- A+ F A+ F+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% C+ A+ A+ F C+ B- F F F
1.30 67% 100% 14% -9 +3 0.90 63% 1.4 .87 18% .43 64% .27 0.80 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.69 17% 1.6 .26 20% .34 86% .30
Nov
11		 Florida St. D- A+ D F D- 41% 6% 53% A+ C- A- F F+ D A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A A A+ 39% 11% 50% C A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D F F
0.96 76% 33% 19% -5 +2 0.96 38% 0.5 .18 22% .51 69% .35 0.94 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 16% 1.1 .18 12% .35 84% .30
Nov
16		 Miami (FL) B B- A+ D C+ 43% 6% 51% A+ B B+ D- C+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 55% 26% 19% B- A+ A A+ A+ D- D- A+ C+
1.07 59% 67% 31% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.9 .28 18% .46 66% .30 0.89 41% 27% 45% -9 +1 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 13% .40 56% .22
Nov
21		 Merrimack A- F B B+ C- 40% 19% 40% C+ C- A B+ A+ C+ A A- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% C+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ D A+
1.22 37% 44% 37% -6 0 0.91 51% 1.2 .59 18% .43 78% .34 0.69 45% 13% 18% -20 +1 0.64 17% 0.6 .10 17% .20 82% .16
Nov
27		 TCU B- A- A+ F D- 43% 4% 53% A+ D+ A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- F C- A+ C+ 37% 35% 29% A+ B A F+ B- D- F C- F
1.05 65% 50% 20% -8 +2 0.91 33% 1.9 .63 25% .47 81% .38 1.10 74% 39% 20% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.3 .34 12% .49 73% .36
Nov
28		 Providence A- B+ F D D+ 28% 21% 51% C- D+ B- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A A D F B 38% 35% 27% A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C- D- C D-
1.22 63% 25% 31% -4 -1 0.93 32% 1.5 .49 11% .41 81% .34 1.06 50% 44% 43% +3 -2 1.04 24% 0.4 .11 14% .41 77% .31
Dec
2		 Duke A- F A+ D+ C- 43% 12% 45% A+ C+ A+ C A+ C B- B+ B A+ C+ D- B+ A 46% 8% 46% C A A A+ A+ B+ B A+ A-
1.01 41% 50% 30% -8 +1 0.88 48% 0.8 .36 20% .23 75% .17 1.03 61% 50% 30% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.7 .23 18% .30 63% .19
Dec
9		 Connecticut A- C+ A+ C- B+ 64% 9% 28% A+ A A+ F D B A+ C- A+ B+ C D+ F C- 37% 29% 33% A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ D B B- B
1.08 53% 50% 31% -3 +3 1.02 43% 0.4 .16 18% .48 70% .34 1.14 63% 47% 41% +8 -1 1.16 23% 1.0 .23 13% .27 69% .19
Dec
13		 George Washington C+ A+ A+ F A 35% 12% 53% B- A B+ F C- C- A+ F A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A- 35% 20% 44% A+ A A A+ A+ C- C- A+ A+
1.11 94% 67% 23% +7 +1 1.18 35% 0.8 .26 18% .56 61% .34 0.97 58% 27% 33% -3 0 0.96 30% 0.8 .25 17% .32 37% .12
Dec
17		 St. Francis (PA) A A+ A+ B A 41% 8% 51% B A A+ B A+ D- B+ A+ A+ A B- F+ A+ B- 30% 44% 26% A+ B+ A- A+ A D A D+ B+
1.41 81% 75% 38% +16 +2 1.37 54% 1.3 .71 21% .42 83% .35 0.84 53% 44% 20% -4 -4 0.86 21% 0.6 .13 17% .18 73% .13
Dec
21		 Colgate A+ A A+ D- B+ 48% 10% 42% A- B+ A+ B A+ B- A+ D- A+ A- A+ B F D+ 33% 33% 33% B+ C- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.39 70% 60% 30% +5 +2 1.17 56% 1.1 .61 14% .48 67% .32 0.93 29% 35% 65% +5 -2 1.08 17% 0.5 .09 20% .15 38% .06
Dec
29		 Dartmouth A- B+ F F+ C+ 55% 13% 33% B+ B- A+ D+ A+ F+ A+ F A+ B- A- A F C 22% 32% 46% A+ B- A+ F A+ F A+ B- A
1.26 67% 29% 28% 0 +2 1.07 54% 0.9 .50 16% .61 61% .37 0.97 46% 26% 44% +1 -3 0.98 8% 1.7 .13 13% .22 71% .16
Jan
3		 Missouri B B- F F D 45% 8% 47% A+ C B D C A+ B+ C B+ B+ D- A F+ C- 34% 23% 43% A C+ B+ A+ A+ D- F A F+
1.09 58% 25% 28% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.8 .26 12% .33 75% .25 1.12 69% 27% 40% +5 -1 1.11 31% 0.8 .26 15% .52 60% .31
Jan
6		 Georgia A- C+ A+ F B- 49% 16% 35% A- B A+ C- A B+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 30% 27% A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D C A+ B
1.18 57% 67% 25% -1 +1 1.04 48% 0.9 .41 17% .35 70% .25 0.99 37% 58% 24% -7 -1 0.86 24% 1.0 .24 12% .33 65% .22
Jan
10		 Tennessee A+ A+ A+ D A+ 38% 15% 46% B A+ A A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D A- 38% 33% 29% A+ A A+ B- A+ A+ F B+ F
1.22 75% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .39 13% .39 80% .31 0.90 59% 27% 38% -2 -2 0.96 17% 1.0 .17 24% .51 66% .34
Jan
13		 Oklahoma A+ A+ B F B+ 46% 21% 32% B B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C C+ A- A+ A+ F B- 38% 30% 32% A B B+ A A B- F B D-
1.36 77% 42% 22% +4 0 1.11 46% 1.3 .59 10% .30 74% .22 1.12 37% 27% 63% +2 -1 1.04 30% 1.1 .32 16% .40 71% .28
Jan
17		 Vanderbilt A+ C- A+ C+ A+ 37% 23% 40% C+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- B+ F C- C- 30% 34% 36% A+ C+ A+ D- A+ F C+ F D
1.35 53% 67% 33% +4 0 1.10 39% 1.7 .67 14% .48 83% .40 1.29 56% 57% 36% +7 -2 1.11 18% 1.3 .24 5% .32 91% .29
Jan
20		 LSU B+ A+ F F C 34% 22% 44% C C A+ C- A+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ C+ A A A+ 35% 43% 22% A+ A+ A+ F A B A A+ A+
1.18 76% 18% 27% -3 0 0.96 51% 0.9 .45 15% .47 52% .25 0.91 59% 29% 27% -6 -3 0.84 21% 1.4 .30 16% .27 67% .18
Jan
24		 Auburn D+ C F C- D 43% 13% 45% A- C- A+ F C- B- A+ F A+ B C+ F B+ B- 50% 23% 27% B- B- A+ A+ A+ C B- F D
1.02 55% 17% 33% -4 +1 0.96 41% 0.6 .27 17% .50 59% .29 1.16 58% 55% 31% +3 +1 1.08 27% 0.6 .17 14% .37 90% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 South Carolina A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 58% 6% 36% A+ A+ B- A+ A+ C D+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 34% 36% 30% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C B F C+
1.36 71% 67% 42% +14 +3 1.36 32% 1.6 .52 16% .24 71% .17 0.69 35% 33% 20% -16 -2 0.66 16% 0.0 .00 14% .28 88% .25
Feb
1		 Alabama A+ A+ F F+ A- 63% 20% 17% A+ A A+ B- A A+ A C- B+ A+ A- A+ F B 27% 16% 56% A B+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A A+
1.29 71% 15% 27% +2 +2 1.09 38% 1.0 .38 3% .35 65% .23 1.00 53% 22% 42% +3 0 1.07 24% 1.0 .24 23% .22 69% .15
Feb
7		 Texas A&M A+ B B D- B- 50% 13% 37% A B A+ D- B A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% C- A+ D+ A+ A D C+ B- C+
1.21 63% 43% 30% +1 +2 1.07 41% 0.8 .32 13% .37 78% .29 0.94 42% 50% 26% -12 +2 0.82 37% 0.6 .21 13% .31 74% .23
Feb
11		 Georgia A- A+ B A- A+ 45% 13% 42% A- A+ D+ B C B- C A+ B- A+ B A+ B+ A+ 44% 11% 44% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+
1.14 68% 43% 39% +8 +2 1.22 29% 1.0 .29 19% .24 80% .19 0.87 56% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.89 28% 0.4 .11 16% .17 73% .13
Feb
14		 Kentucky A C B+ A+ A 44% 13% 44% A+ A+ A+ C- A- B+ A+ D A+ A- A+ F F B 45% 24% 31% C+ B B+ A+ A+ A- D- C D
1.20 54% 43% 42% +4 +1 1.13 41% 0.8 .32 14% .49 69% .34 1.08 42% 50% 44% +1 0 1.03 32% 0.8 .24 18% .40 72% .29
Feb
17		 South Carolina B C+ F F F+ 46% 21% 33% B D- A+ A+ A+ F A- C+ A- A+ B- A A+ A+ 32% 32% 36% A+ A+ B- F D B- D+ A+ C+
1.13 59% 10% 25% -10 +1 0.83 49% 1.5 .73 21% .34 72% .25 0.93 56% 31% 17% -12 -2 0.74 28% 1.4 .38 16% .36 70% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.6 22.3 40.0 31.0 97.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.7 5.9 22.3 40.0 31.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 31.0    31.0
15-3 100.0% 40.0    40.0
14-4 100.0% 22.3    15.0 6.6 0.7
13-5 60.5% 3.6    0.5 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 97.0% 97.0 86.6 8.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 31.0% 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 1.6 14.5 13.3 3.0 0.2 100.0%
15-3 40.0% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 2.2 8.9 18.4 10.5 2.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 22.3% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 2.8 1.9 7.0 8.7 4.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.9% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 3.3 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.7% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 2.2 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.8% 100.0% 1.4 66.1 32.7 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.1% 100.0% 1.8 36.3 52.3 11.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.4% 100.0% 1.9 30.8 52.4 16.3 0.5