Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#13
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#42
Pace74.1#62
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#33
First Shot+5.0#59
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#24
Layup/Dunks+4.2#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#240
Freethrows+3.0#28
Improvement+0.3#146

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#10
First Shot+6.6#22
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#18
Layups/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#298
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#4
Freethrows-1.3#269
Improvement-0.4#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 12.5% 12.7% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 43.7% 44.1% 23.2%
Top 6 Seed 70.6% 71.0% 50.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.5% 93.7% 82.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.3% 92.5% 80.7%
Average Seed 5.0 5.0 6.0
.500 or above 97.9% 98.0% 91.1%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 89.7% 81.9%
Conference Champion 22.9% 23.1% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four2.5% 2.4% 4.4%
First Round92.6% 92.8% 81.2%
Second Round76.2% 76.5% 60.6%
Sweet Sixteen42.7% 43.0% 27.1%
Elite Eight19.6% 19.8% 9.9%
Final Four8.7% 8.8% 3.9%
Championship Game3.7% 3.8% 1.8%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.5%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 39 - 9
Quad 25 - 114 - 11
Quad 33 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 3 Arizona L 87-93 32%     0 - 1 +16.6 +12.8 +4.6
  Thu, Nov 6 350 North Florida W 104-64 99%     1 - 1 +24.6 +7.6 +12.1
  Tue, Nov 11 119 Florida St. W 78-76 94%     2 - 1 +2.1 -5.4 +7.3
  Sun, Nov 16 35 Miami (FL) W 82-68 67%     3 - 1 +27.2 +8.7 +17.3
  Fri, Nov 21 268 Merrimack W 80-45 98%     4 - 1 +26.4 +9.5 +19.3
  Thu, Nov 27 55 TCU L 80-84 77%     4 - 2 +5.9 +7.9 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 28 81 Providence W 90-78 84%     5 - 2 +19.3 +13.2 +5.5
  Tue, Dec 2 2 @Duke L 66-67 23%     5 - 3 +24.7 +11.3 +13.3
  Tue, Dec 9 6 Connecticut L 73-77 37%     5 - 4 +17.1 +13.7 +3.3
  Sat, Dec 13 80 George Washington W 80-70 84%     6 - 4 +17.3 +5.8 +11.2
  Wed, Dec 17 363 St. Francis (PA) W 102-61 99.7%    7 - 4 +22.4 +18.8 +2.3
  Sun, Dec 21 179 Colgate W 86-64 98%    
  Mon, Dec 29 236 Dartmouth W 90-65 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 49 @Missouri W 81-77 64%    
  Tue, Jan 6 19 Georgia W 87-82 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 15 Tennessee W 75-72 62%    
  Tue, Jan 13 47 @Oklahoma W 81-77 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 10 @Vanderbilt L 78-82 37%    
  Tue, Jan 20 37 LSU W 81-73 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 29 Auburn W 82-76 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 87 @South Carolina W 76-68 78%    
  Sun, Feb 1 16 Alabama W 89-86 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 44 @Texas A&M W 82-78 63%    
  Wed, Feb 11 19 @Georgia L 84-85 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 20 Kentucky W 80-75 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 87 South Carolina W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Feb 21 60 @Mississippi W 76-70 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 40 @Texas W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 21 Arkansas W 82-77 68%    
  Tue, Mar 3 86 Mississippi St. W 84-70 90%    
  Sat, Mar 7 20 @Kentucky L 77-78 46%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.6 6.8 4.0 1.8 0.3 22.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.7 4.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.1 4.0 0.9 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.5 4.5 0.8 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 4.7 1.1 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 2.3 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 0.9 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 1.8 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.1 8.0 11.2 13.9 15.4 14.4 12.1 8.2 4.2 1.8 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.8% 1.8    1.8 0.1
16-2 96.9% 4.0    3.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 82.9% 6.8    4.7 1.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.2% 6.6    2.5 3.0 0.9 0.2
13-5 20.1% 2.9    0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 13.4 6.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 48.5% 51.5% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.2% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.1 1.1 1.9 1.0 0.2 100.0%
15-3 8.2% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 2.6 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.1% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 3.3 0.4 2.2 4.5 3.8 1.1 0.1 100.0%
13-5 14.4% 100.0% 18.7% 81.2% 4.0 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.4% 99.9% 14.9% 85.1% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 5.3 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 13.9% 99.8% 9.6% 90.2% 5.8 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.7 4.2 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 11.2% 98.4% 5.6% 92.8% 6.8 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.3%
9-9 8.0% 93.8% 4.7% 89.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.5 93.5%
8-10 5.1% 70.4% 3.9% 66.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.0 1.5 69.2%
7-11 2.9% 29.5% 1.6% 27.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 2.1 28.3%
6-12 1.5% 7.0% 1.1% 5.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 5.9%
5-13 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.5% 15.1% 78.4% 5.0 3.6 8.9 14.6 16.5 15.2 11.7 8.9 5.6 3.2 2.8 2.2 0.1 6.6 92.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 72.3 27.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 70.0 30.0