Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#18
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#25
Pace61.7#352
Improvement+1.3#102

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#25
First Shot+6.5#35
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#55
Layup/Dunks+5.9#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#164
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement-1.0#254

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#20
First Shot+7.4#14
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#153
Layups/Dunks+3.3#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#71
Freethrows-0.3#205
Improvement+2.3#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 4.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 25.5% 25.5% 12.6%
Top 6 Seed 53.4% 53.6% 25.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.1% 91.1% 77.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.7% 90.8% 77.3%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.9% 84.9% 70.2%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.1% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.7% 3.6% 10.6%
First Round89.6% 89.7% 73.5%
Second Round66.8% 66.9% 46.4%
Sweet Sixteen31.1% 31.2% 15.2%
Elite Eight12.8% 12.9% 4.0%
Final Four5.2% 5.2% 2.0%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Umass Lowell (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 9
Quad 26 - 112 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 185 Robert Morris W 101-69 96%     1 - 0 +27.3 +27.5 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 7 356 Western Illinois W 77-58 99%     2 - 0 +2.2 +5.4 -1.1
  Fri, Nov 14 97 Xavier W 81-62 90%     3 - 0 +21.5 +9.8 +11.6
  Tue, Nov 18 215 Southeast Missouri St. W 99-70 97%     4 - 0 +22.5 +25.7 -2.4
  Thu, Nov 20 336 Chicago St. W 93-54 99%     5 - 0 +25.3 +26.8 +4.2
  Tue, Nov 25 63 Mississippi W 74-69 78%     6 - 0 +13.5 +12.3 +1.6
  Wed, Nov 26 87 Grand Canyon W 59-46 82%     7 - 0 +19.6 +0.8 +20.9
  Tue, Dec 2 16 @Michigan St. L 52-71 35%     7 - 1 0 - 1 +1.4 +1.6 -3.9
  Sat, Dec 6 94 Maryland W 83-64 89%     8 - 1 1 - 1 +21.9 +11.1 +10.6
  Thu, Dec 11 3 @Iowa St. L 62-66 21%     8 - 2 +21.2 +10.7 +10.0
  Sun, Dec 14 280 Western Michigan W 91-51 98%     9 - 2 +30.7 +20.4 +13.8
  Sat, Dec 20 308 Bucknell W 94-39 98%     10 - 2 +46.6 +25.6 +25.0
  Mon, Dec 29 304 Umass Lowell W 87-59 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 30 UCLA W 72-67 68%    
  Tue, Jan 6 96 @Minnesota W 69-61 77%    
  Sun, Jan 11 10 Illinois L 72-73 48%    
  Wed, Jan 14 5 @Purdue L 66-74 22%    
  Sat, Jan 17 29 @Indiana L 69-70 46%    
  Tue, Jan 20 147 Rutgers W 77-58 96%    
  Wed, Jan 28 38 USC W 77-70 74%    
  Sun, Feb 1 56 @Oregon W 73-69 66%    
  Wed, Feb 4 48 @Washington W 71-68 60%    
  Sun, Feb 8 57 Northwestern W 75-64 83%    
  Wed, Feb 11 94 @Maryland W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 5 Purdue L 69-71 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 25 Nebraska W 72-68 65%    
  Sun, Feb 22 46 @Wisconsin W 73-71 59%    
  Wed, Feb 25 31 Ohio St. W 74-69 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 126 @Penn St. W 78-67 84%    
  Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 70-77 26%    
  Sun, Mar 8 25 @Nebraska L 69-71 44%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.7 4.2 1.3 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.5 1.7 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.4 3.4 6.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.2 3.5 0.3 0.0 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.1 4.2 0.6 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.5 1.1 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.9 1.6 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.1 0.2 5.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.2 7.4 10.8 14.0 15.8 15.8 12.5 8.6 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 79.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 42.7% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 14.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 2.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.8% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 2.9 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.6% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3.7 0.2 0.8 2.8 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.5% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 4.5 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 15.8% 99.9% 3.6% 96.3% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 4.8 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 15.8% 99.5% 2.2% 97.3% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 4.5 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-9 14.0% 97.5% 1.2% 96.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.8 3.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.4 97.5%
10-10 10.8% 91.9% 1.0% 90.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 2.9 1.9 0.5 0.9 91.8%
9-11 7.4% 74.3% 0.6% 73.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.0 1.9 74.2%
8-12 4.2% 40.6% 0.4% 40.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 2.5 40.4%
7-13 2.3% 15.0% 15.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9 15.0%
6-14 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.9 1.1%
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.1% 3.8% 87.3% 6.1 1.4 3.3 8.3 12.5 13.8 14.1 12.6 9.3 7.2 5.1 3.3 0.1 8.9 90.7%