Iowa
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#20
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#43
Pace76.2#41
Improvement-2.8#329

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#4
First Shot+11.0#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#130
Layup/Dunks+5.9#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#64
Freethrows+2.5#46
Improvement-2.2#325

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot+4.7#46
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#317
Layups/Dunks-0.1#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+2.3#64
Improvement-0.6#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.4% 3.2% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 7.2% 9.3% 3.9%
Top 4 Seed 24.9% 30.8% 15.9%
Top 6 Seed 46.7% 54.5% 34.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.8% 89.1% 75.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.4% 88.0% 74.0%
Average Seed 6.2 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 98.0% 99.2% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 78.9% 70.7%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.6% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.2%
First Four4.2% 3.5% 5.3%
First Round81.9% 87.6% 73.3%
Second Round56.6% 62.1% 48.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.7% 31.7% 21.5%
Elite Eight12.8% 14.9% 9.6%
Final Four5.7% 6.7% 4.2%
Championship Game2.4% 2.8% 1.7%
National Champion0.9% 1.1% 0.6%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 015 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 218   Longwood W 106-73 95%     1 - 0 +27.7 +23.5 +2.0
  Nov 12, 2021 223   UMKC W 89-57 95%     2 - 0 +26.5 +10.2 +15.1
  Nov 16, 2021 334   NC Central W 86-69 99%     3 - 0 +1.4 +6.2 -5.0
  Nov 18, 2021 344   Alabama St. W 108-82 99%     4 - 0 +9.5 +23.5 -15.4
  Nov 22, 2021 303   Western Michigan W 109-61 98%     5 - 0 +37.1 +17.4 +14.7
  Nov 26, 2021 260   Portland St. W 85-51 97%     6 - 0 +25.9 +4.6 +18.8
  Nov 29, 2021 44   @ Virginia W 75-74 54%     7 - 0 +13.8 +27.9 -13.9
  Dec 03, 2021 1   @ Purdue L 70-77 18%     7 - 1 0 - 1 +16.5 +0.5 +16.5
  Dec 06, 2021 17   Illinois L 83-87 59%     7 - 2 0 - 2 +7.4 +11.7 -4.1
  Dec 09, 2021 58   @ Iowa St. W 80-77 61%    
  Dec 18, 2021 50   Utah St. W 82-77 66%    
  Dec 21, 2021 315   SE Louisiana W 93-67 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 159   Western Illinois W 92-76 93%    
  Jan 03, 2022 60   Maryland W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 06, 2022 28   @ Wisconsin L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 13, 2022 31   Indiana W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 16, 2022 71   @ Minnesota W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 19, 2022 102   @ Rutgers W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 22, 2022 92   Penn St. W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 27, 2022 1   Purdue L 79-83 37%    
  Jan 31, 2022 92   @ Penn St. W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 03, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 06, 2022 71   Minnesota W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 10, 2022 60   @ Maryland W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 13, 2022 109   Nebraska W 88-75 88%    
  Feb 17, 2022 21   Michigan W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 22, 2022 18   Michigan St. W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 25, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 85-78 73%    
  Feb 28, 2022 39   Northwestern W 82-76 70%    
  Mar 03, 2022 21   @ Michigan L 75-78 40%    
  Mar 06, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 80-84 38%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.5 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.9 0.8 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.1 6.7 9.6 12.7 14.4 14.8 13.2 10.0 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 93.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 76.9% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 45.7% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.2% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.1% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.1 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.2% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 2.9 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.0% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 3.9 0.2 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.2% 99.9% 11.3% 88.6% 5.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 14.8% 99.4% 7.6% 91.9% 6.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-9 14.4% 97.1% 4.4% 92.6% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.5 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.4 97.0%
10-10 12.7% 89.5% 3.1% 86.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.9 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.3 89.1%
9-11 9.6% 69.8% 2.3% 67.5% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 2.9 69.1%
8-12 6.7% 38.4% 1.5% 36.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 37.4%
7-13 4.1% 13.7% 0.7% 13.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.5 13.1%
6-14 2.4% 3.5% 0.5% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.0%
5-15 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 1.0 0.2%
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 83.8% 7.8% 76.0% 6.2 2.4 4.8 8.0 9.7 10.6 11.2 10.3 8.6 6.6 5.2 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 16.2 82.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.0 19.0