Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.6 26
Expected Predictive Rating +16.0 29
Pace 60.7 352
Improvement -3.6 314

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 30 A B- B B B-
Defense B+ 31 B- B A C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 59 B+ 66% 30 +6.3 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 258 A+ 49% 7 +0.5 145
Three Pointers 40% 207 B+ 38% 27 +2.0 109
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 76 A +7.8 10
1st FG Attempt A 1.20 9
Second Chance B- 33.9% 83 C+ 1.05 143 B- 0.36 91
Turnovers B 14.8% 61
Freethrows B- 0.34 75 B 77% 40 B 0.26 48
Total Offense A- +8.8 30

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 23 B 8.7% 63
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 243 C- 5.8% 238
Three Pointers D- 75% 341 B+ 0.1% 13
Total C+ 59% 102 B- 4.8% 89

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 180 C- 60% 223 +0.7 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 152 B+ 33% 20 -0.9 121
Three Pointers 40% 204 B 31% 50 -2.3 83
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 152 B- -2.4 85
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 97
Second Chance B 26.2% 47 B- 0.96 81 B 0.25 43
Turnovers A 22.3% 8
Freethrows C- 0.31 217 C 73% 200 C- 0.23 223
Total Defense B+ +6.9 31

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 45 D+ 8.9% 258
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 6% 1 C 5.4% 132
Three Pointers C 85% 195 C 1.0% 143
Total B 48% 38 C- 5.0% 222

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 330 18.1 306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 203 0.11 29
Improvement -0.9 #236 -2.7 #308

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 36 27 20
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 10 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None 8 5
NCAA Tourney Finish None 2nd Round Elite 8

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 2% 4% 1%
Top 6 Seed 24% 39% 13%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95% 98% 92%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95% 98% 92%
Average Seed 7.6 6.9 8.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 96%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 0% 4%
First Round94% 98% 91%
Second Round57% 64% 52%
Sweet Sixteen16% 20% 13%
Elite Eight6% 7% 5%
Final Four2% 3% 1%
Championship Game1% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 42.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 15 - 9
Quad 26 - 111 - 10
Quad 34 - 115 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 177 Robert Morris W 101 - 69 96% +21  99% 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +24 A+ A+ C B +4 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 362 Western Illinois W 77 - 58 100% +10  92% 2 - 0 C- -2 C +1 A F B+ C -1 C- C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 82 Xavier W 81 - 62 86% +10  79% 3 - 0 A+ +23 B +7 A+ D D A+ +16 A+ B A
 Tue, Nov 18 227 Southeast Missouri St. W 99 - 70 97% +19  100% 4 - 0 A +22 A+ +26 A+ A+ B- C- -2 D F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 351 Chicago St. W 93 - 54 99% +18  98% 5 - 0 A +22 A+ +22 B- A+ A+ B+ +6 B B B-
 Tue, Nov 25 73 Mississippi W 74 - 69 77% +2  78% 6 - 0 B+ +13 B+ +9 C- A+ A+ B +4 B F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 58 Grand Canyon W 59 - 46 73% +6  75% 7 - 0 A +22 C +1 B- B- D+ A+ +24 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 11 @Michigan St. L 52 - 71 26% -12  10% 7 - 1 0 - 1 C+ +3 C- -0 B C D+ C +0 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 107 Maryland W 83 - 64 91% +15  94% 8 - 1 1 - 1 A +20 B+ +7 A C B+ A+ +13 A- C+ A+
 Thu, Dec 11 7 @Iowa St. L 62 - 66 20% +1  44% 8 - 2 A +21 B+ +8 A+ B+ D- A+ +12 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 284 Western Michigan W 91 - 51 98% +30  99% 9 - 2 A+ +30 A+ +16 A+ C A- A+ +17 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 330 Bucknell W 94 - 39 98% +23  84% 10 - 2 A+ +44 A+ +22 A+ A+ A- A+ +26 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 310 Umass Lowell W 90 - 62 99% +19  99% 11 - 2 A- +16 A+ +15 A+ C- B B- +3 D A- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 39 UCLA W 74 - 61 69% +10  94% 12 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +23 A +12 A+ D- D- A+ +13 B A+ A
 Tue, Jan 6 66 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 65% -6  7% 12 - 3 2 - 2 B +9 C -0 C+ C- D+ A +9 C A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 5 Illinois L 69 - 75 34% -10  0% 12 - 4 2 - 3 B+ +14 B- +4 B+ C+ C+ A +10 B- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 8 @Purdue L 72 - 79 20% +1  56% 12 - 5 2 - 4 A- +17 A +12 A+ A D B +5 C- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 37 @Indiana W 74 - 57 46% +9  95% 13 - 5 3 - 4 A+ +34 A+ +21 A+ D+ B A+ +16 B+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 109 Rutgers W 68 - 62 91% +1  49% 14 - 5 4 - 4 B- +7 C- -2 B- F C- A +9 D+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 53 USC W 73 - 72 79% +1  48% 15 - 5 5 - 4 B +8 B- +4 D+ A+ F B +4 D B+ A
 Sun, Feb 1 91 @Oregon W 84 - 66 74% +7  88% 16 - 5 6 - 4 A+ +27 A+ +29 A+ D- A+ C+ +2 A+ F+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 44 @Washington W 84 - 74 54% +1  46% 17 - 5 7 - 4 A+ +25 A+ +28 A+ D- A+ C- -2 F+ F A-
 Sun, Feb 8 67 Northwestern W 76 - 70 83% +3  61% 18 - 5 8 - 4 B+ +11 A +12 B+ B+ A C +0 C- A+ A-
 Wed, Feb 11 107 @Maryland L 70 - 77 79% -2  23% 18 - 6 8 - 5 C +0 B +7 C C+ A+ D- -7 F D- A
 Sat, Feb 14 8 Purdue L 57 - 78 39% -14  1% 18 - 7 8 - 6 C- -3 C -0 D+ C- A+ D- -7 A- D+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 13 Nebraska W 57 - 52 49% +2  49% 19 - 7 9 - 6 A +21 C +1 D+ C+ C+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Feb 22 29 @Wisconsin L 73 - 75 42%
 Wed, Feb 25 34 Ohio St. W 75 - 71 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 115 @Penn St. W 78 - 68 82%
 Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 71 - 79 22%
 Sun, Mar 8 13 @Nebraska L 65 - 71 28%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 9 +16 A- +9 A+ A B- B+ +7 B+ B B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ A+ B+ A 43% 30% 40% B- A B- C+ B- B B- B B B+ C- B+ B B- 39% 21% 40% C B- B B- B A C- C C-
1.21 66% 49% 38% +8 +1 1.20 34% 1.0 .36 15% .34 77% .26 0.99 60% 33% 31% -2 0 0.97 26% 1.0 .25 22% .31 73% .25
Nov
4		 Robert Morris A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 10% 33% A A+ A+ A A+ C A+ A- A+ B F A+ F F 19% 24% 57% A F F D+ F A+ F A+ F
1.47 79% 25% 43% +15 +3 1.38 45% 1.2 .55 16% .76 82% .62 1.00 86% 11% 48% +10 -2 1.19 45% 1.2 .52 33% .48 55% .26
Nov
7		 Western Illinois C A+ C+ A A+ 37% 11% 52% C A F F F B+ B C+ B C D A C- D 28% 37% 35% A C- B D+ C+ A F+ F F
1.22 82% 40% 42% +15 +1 1.35 15% 0.0 .00 11% .36 75% .27 0.92 58% 25% 33% -5 -3 0.86 21% 1.0 .21 22% .37 83% .31
Nov
14		 Xavier B A+ D C A+ 54% 26% 20% B A+ B F D D A+ B+ A+ A+ C F A+ A+ 28% 11% 60% F A+ A+ F B A C+ A+ B+
1.15 84% 33% 33% +13 0 1.28 32% 0.5 .16 20% .48 74% .36 0.88 60% 50% 22% -9 0 0.85 18% 1.3 .23 17% .24 57% .14
Nov
18		 Southeast Missouri St. A+ A+ A+ A A+ 41% 14% 45% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ C A+ C- B- F C D 46% 17% 37% D+ D F+ F F A+ F A+ D+
1.45 78% 67% 40% +16 +1 1.36 36% 1.8 .64 16% .68 74% .51 1.03 53% 57% 33% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.5 .52 25% .41 57% .23
Nov
20		 Chicago St. A+ A+ F D+ C+ 42% 2% 56% A- B- A A+ A+ A+ C+ B B- B+ A+ F A+ B 32% 48% 20% A B B C+ B B- D D- D-
1.52 81% 0% 32% +7 +3 1.22 46% 2.0 .92 11% .35 79% .28 0.88 36% 52% 11% -7 -4 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .30 80% .24
Nov
25		 Mississippi B+ F B B- C- 37% 26% 37% C C- B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ B D+ B- B B 29% 33% 38% C B A- F F A+ F F F
1.15 41% 42% 35% -5 -1 0.91 32% 1.6 .53 11% .42 75% .31 1.07 67% 36% 31% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.8 .44 20% .39 85% .33
Nov
26		 Grand Canyon C F A+ D- C 43% 13% 45% A B- A- D B- D+ A+ D- A A+ B- A- D+ C+ 46% 18% 36% D+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A
0.98 41% 80% 28% -6 +1 0.93 33% 1.0 .33 20% .45 68% .31 0.76 56% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 15% 0.0 .00 31% .22 78% .17
Dec
2		 Michigan St. C- D+ F B- B- 36% 13% 51% A- B C D+ C D+ A+ F A- C B- C+ A+ A+ 47% 22% 31% D- A+ F F F A+ F F F
0.89 50% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.95 20% 0.7 .13 19% .36 65% .23 1.21 59% 38% 18% -7 0 0.89 52% 1.6 .84 24% .56 88% .49
Dec
6		 Maryland B+ D A+ A+ A 46% 25% 30% C A D A C B+ F F F A+ A A+ D- A 38% 23% 40% B- A- C B- C+ A+ F A F
1.18 50% 64% 47% +9 0 1.19 24% 1.3 .29 14% .20 50% .10 0.91 47% 11% 38% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.0 .35 26% .73 63% .46
Dec
11		 Iowa St. B+ A- A- A+ A+ 34% 36% 30% D A+ B B B+ D- F F F A+ C A+ B A+ 44% 21% 35% C A+ A+ A+ A+ C F F+ F
1.01 67% 44% 46% +10 -2 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 26% .11 60% .07 1.07 63% 22% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .24 15% .44 74% .32
Dec
14		 Western Michigan A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 8% 52% B A+ C C- C A- C- F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C A+ D- B- D+ B+ F A+ C-
1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19 0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21
Dec
20		 Bucknell A+ A A+ A A+ 49% 16% 35% A- A+ A+ B A+ A- F A+ F A+ F A+ A+ C 31% 15% 54% C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.44 70% 67% 42% +15 +1 1.35 50% 1.2 .58 14% .21 83% .18 0.60 75% 17% 24% -6 0 0.90 12% 0.7 .08 38% .15 67% .10
Dec
29		 Umass Lowell A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 60% 15% 25% A- A+ C+ D- C- B A+ A+ A+ B- D- A+ F+ D 50% 20% 30% D+ D C+ A+ A- A- D- A+ C+
1.37 72% 57% 33% +11 +2 1.29 33% 1.0 .33 11% .41 92% .38 0.95 64% 22% 38% +2 +1 1.07 30% 0.8 .23 24% .36 50% .18
Jan
3		 UCLA A A+ A+ B+ A+ 16% 26% 58% F+ A+ A+ F D- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ B 40% 33% 27% C+ B D+ A+ A+ A A A+ A+
1.19 83% 80% 36% +17 -2 1.32 42% 0.5 .19 23% .54 85% .46 0.98 58% 56% 23% +2 -2 1.02 36% 0.3 .12 19% .24 67% .16
Jan
6		 Minnesota C F A+ C C+ 31% 29% 40% D+ C+ A F C- D+ C- B+ C+ A D+ F A C 40% 18% 42% C+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ F F+ F
0.98 44% 53% 33% 0 -2 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.03 67% 63% 26% +3 0 1.09 11% 0.7 .07 15% .48 75% .36
Jan
11		 Illinois B- A F D+ B 32% 21% 46% A- B+ C+ C C+ C+ D- A+ C- A D+ A+ C+ B 46% 8% 46% F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+
1.04 67% 25% 31% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .10 100% .10 1.14 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.12 30% 0.9 .27 18% .20 82% .17
Jan
14		 Purdue A A+ A- A+ A+ 24% 28% 48% C- A+ C- A+ A D C- F+ D+ B F C+ F D+ 38% 32% 30% B+ C- A+ A A+ B- F F F
1.12 73% 46% 45% +14 -2 1.26 20% 1.8 .36 20% .20 60% .12 1.23 78% 40% 43% +12 -1 1.23 25% 1.0 .25 14% .40 86% .34
Jan
17		 Indiana A+ A+ B A+ A+ 33% 29% 38% C- A+ C+ F D+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A- 44% 7% 49% D+ B+ F+ A+ A+ B- B- B+ B
1.29 79% 42% 44% +13 -1 1.26 29% 0.8 .24 14% .46 91% .42 0.99 67% 33% 30% +1 +2 1.07 35% 0.3 .12 16% .31 73% .23
Jan
20		 Rutgers C- B B C- B- 40% 21% 38% C+ B- F+ F F C- B+ A A- A F A+ B- D+ 33% 28% 40% D+ D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
1.05 63% 40% 33% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.7 .17 19% .30 81% .25 0.96 77% 27% 31% +2 -1 1.03 35% 0.6 .19 29% .53 79% .42
Jan
28		 USC B- C- F D+ D+ 33% 17% 50% C+ D+ A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ B D F C- D- 38% 32% 30% A- D A C+ B+ A A+ B A+
1.07 53% 25% 30% -6 0 0.89 36% 1.3 .48 22% .41 86% .36 1.06 67% 53% 36% +9 -1 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 69% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Oregon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 12% 39% A+ A+ C- F D- A+ F B F+ C+ B+ F A+ A+ 33% 23% 44% A- A+ D- D F+ D+ C+ F D
1.42 71% 67% 53% +21 +2 1.47 28% 0.6 .16 8% .18 80% .15 1.12 50% 50% 21% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .50 15% .32 88% .28
Feb
4		 Washington A+ A+ A A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% C+ A+ F+ C D- A+ A+ F B+ C- F D F+ F+ 41% 25% 34% D F+ B- F F A- A- F+ B+
1.37 82% 46% 50% +20 -1 1.40 17% 1.0 .17 7% .37 62% .23 1.21 72% 45% 40% +11 0 1.23 35% 1.9 .65 20% .22 82% .18
Feb
8		 Northwestern A B- A+ F B 49% 20% 32% B+ B+ A- C B+ A A+ A A+ C A- A F D+ 36% 32% 32% A- C- A+ F A+ A- F F F
1.22 60% 63% 23% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.9 .38 13% .54 79% .43 1.13 50% 29% 57% +5 -2 1.09 13% 2.0 .25 16% .42 91% .38
Feb
11		 Maryland B A- D+ F C- 42% 12% 46% B+ C B- C- C+ A+ C A- B- D- F F D+ F 37% 15% 49% C- F F+ C- D- A F B F
1.13 67% 33% 26% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.0 .31 6% .29 76% .22 1.24 80% 50% 35% +11 +1 1.24 42% 1.1 .46 23% .58 68% .39
Feb
14		 Purdue C D- B+ F D- 38% 19% 43% A- D+ C+ F+ C- A+ A+ C- A D- C- A+ D+ A+ 34% 11% 55% F+ A- B+ F D+ F+ F F+ F
0.99 50% 44% 25% -8 0 0.87 24% 0.9 .22 10% .33 65% .21 1.35 67% 0% 38% +2 +1 1.07 32% 1.5 .48 9% .38 80% .30
Feb
17		 Nebraska C F C D D 24% 26% 50% C+ D+ A F+ C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 34% 10% 56% C A+ A+ F A+ A+ D+ D+ D+
0.95 40% 36% 29% -9 -2 0.81 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 94% .35 0.87 79% 0% 22% -7 +1 0.90 7% 2.0 .15 20% .29 79% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.6 4.4 0.6 5.6 5th
6th 0.3 10.7 6.2 0.1 17.3 6th
7th 0.1 9.1 15.7 0.8 25.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 17.2 4.0 0.0 23.2 8th
9th 0.3 9.2 8.6 0.2 18.3 9th
10th 1.4 5.2 0.3 6.9 10th
11th 0.9 0.3 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 2.6 16.8 35.6 31.2 12.0 1.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.9% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.0% 99.8% 2.6% 97.2% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 4.6 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 99.7%
12-8 31.2% 98.7% 1.0% 97.7% 6.9 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.8 11.2 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.4 98.7%
11-9 35.6% 95.5% 0.8% 94.7% 8.1 0.1 0.4 2.6 7.5 10.9 8.6 3.5 0.4 1.6 95.5%
10-10 16.8% 87.5% 0.5% 87.0% 9.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.5 4.3 1.5 2.1 87.4%
9-11 2.6% 63.1% 0.3% 62.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.0 63.0%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.9% 1.1% 93.9% 7.6 5.1 94.9%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.0 2.0 2.0 22.4 46.9 24.5 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 4.5 0.6 15.0 34.7 35.8 13.3 0.6
Lose Out 0.8% 41.5% 10.7 1.2 10.0 29.9 0.4