LSU
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#11
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#14
Pace74.0#68
Improvement-2.2#311

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#22
First Shot+8.3#13
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#213
Layup/Dunks+10.7#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#265
Freethrows+2.3#57
Improvement-2.6#337

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#6
First Shot+11.3#3
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#310
Layups/Dunks+12.3#1
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#244
Freethrows+0.2#181
Improvement+0.4#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.2% 4.7% 1.3%
#1 Seed 17.8% 19.4% 8.1%
Top 2 Seed 36.8% 39.3% 21.3%
Top 4 Seed 65.2% 67.8% 48.8%
Top 6 Seed 82.8% 84.8% 70.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.5% 97.9% 94.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.9% 97.4% 93.8%
Average Seed 3.8 3.7 4.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 92.6% 87.2%
Conference Champion 22.0% 23.2% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 2.1%
First Round96.9% 97.4% 93.7%
Second Round80.8% 82.2% 71.8%
Sweet Sixteen51.3% 53.1% 39.9%
Elite Eight28.3% 29.7% 19.6%
Final Four14.8% 15.7% 9.4%
Championship Game7.4% 7.9% 4.0%
National Champion3.6% 3.9% 1.7%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Neutral) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 17 - 6
Quad 27 - 114 - 7
Quad 36 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 259   Louisiana Monroe W 101-39 98%     1 - 0 +53.9 +18.3 +31.9
  Nov 12, 2021 141   Texas St. W 84-59 94%     2 - 0 +23.8 +15.6 +9.6
  Nov 15, 2021 134   Liberty W 74-58 94%     3 - 0 +15.2 +0.9 +14.1
  Nov 18, 2021 328   McNeese St. W 85-46 99%     4 - 0 +25.3 -1.0 +22.7
  Nov 22, 2021 57   Belmont W 83-53 86%     5 - 0 +35.1 +7.4 +26.4
  Nov 26, 2021 92   Penn St. W 68-63 OT 85%     6 - 0 +10.7 +0.8 +10.1
  Nov 27, 2021 51   Wake Forest W 75-61 77%     7 - 0 +23.0 +1.7 +20.5
  Dec 01, 2021 89   Ohio W 66-51 89%     8 - 0 +17.9 -7.2 +24.9
  Dec 11, 2021 99   Georgia Tech W 77-66 86%    
  Dec 14, 2021 340   Northwestern St. W 93-60 99.9%   
  Dec 18, 2021 85   Louisiana Tech W 82-71 84%    
  Dec 22, 2021 239   Lipscomb W 87-63 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 16   @ Auburn L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 04, 2022 15   Kentucky W 76-72 66%    
  Jan 08, 2022 13   Tennessee W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 12, 2022 30   @ Florida W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 25   Arkansas W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 19, 2022 10   @ Alabama L 77-80 38%    
  Jan 22, 2022 13   @ Tennessee L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 26, 2022 76   Texas A&M W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 91   @ TCU W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 01, 2022 61   Mississippi W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 86   @ Vanderbilt W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 08, 2022 76   @ Texas A&M W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 12, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 16, 2022 150   Georgia W 83-65 95%    
  Feb 19, 2022 118   @ South Carolina W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 23, 2022 15   @ Kentucky L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 158   Missouri W 79-60 95%    
  Mar 02, 2022 25   @ Arkansas W 78-77 51%    
  Mar 05, 2022 10   Alabama W 80-77 59%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.3 7.4 5.2 2.0 0.5 22.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.0 6.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.7 5.8 1.4 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.1 1.6 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.5 1.8 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.2 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.4 6.8 10.2 13.4 15.6 15.0 13.4 9.6 5.4 2.0 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.7% 2.0    2.0 0.0
16-2 95.2% 5.2    4.4 0.7 0.0
15-3 77.0% 7.4    4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 39.9% 5.3    1.8 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.1% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.0% 22.0 13.2 6.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 55.8% 44.2% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.4% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.3 3.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.6% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.6 5.0 3.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.4% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.0 4.2 5.5 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.0% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.7 2.0 4.7 4.6 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.6% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 3.6 0.5 2.5 4.4 4.4 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.4% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 4.7 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.6 3.4 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 10.2% 99.7% 6.8% 92.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 2.5 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 6.8% 98.1% 5.4% 92.7% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
8-10 4.4% 89.5% 3.9% 85.6% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 89.0%
7-11 2.2% 66.9% 2.3% 64.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 66.1%
6-12 0.9% 33.7% 1.1% 32.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 33.0%
5-13 0.4% 14.0% 0.5% 13.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 13.6%
4-14 0.1% 2.9% 1.5% 1.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 97.5% 18.8% 78.7% 3.8 17.8 19.0 15.1 13.2 10.0 7.7 5.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 96.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 98.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.9 8.1