LSU
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#106
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#86
Pace65.4#268
Improvement-1.8#343

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#132
First Shot+0.1#181
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#85
Layup/Dunks-0.6#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows+0.0#176
Improvement-0.1#212

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#102
First Shot+3.1#79
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#248
Layups/Dunks+1.5#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#242
Freethrows+2.9#18
Improvement-1.7#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 13.4 15.3
.500 or above 44.7% 73.2% 40.8%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.2% 5.5% 17.7%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Home) - 12.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 10
Quad 23 - 54 - 15
Quad 32 - 16 - 15
Quad 410 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 259   UMKC W 74-63 86%     1 - 0 +3.1 -4.4 +7.0
  Nov 12, 2022 311   Arkansas St. W 61-52 91%     2 - 0 -1.8 -11.2 +10.2
  Nov 17, 2022 348   New Orleans W 91-62 95%     3 - 0 +14.0 +6.5 +6.4
  Nov 21, 2022 234   Illinois St. W 77-61 77%     4 - 0 +12.3 -2.2 +13.4
  Nov 22, 2022 108   Akron W 73-58 51%     5 - 0 +18.7 +11.5 +9.0
  Nov 23, 2022 28   Kansas St. L 59-61 20%     5 - 1 +10.8 -4.7 +15.5
  Nov 27, 2022 215   Wofford W 78-75 80%     6 - 1 -2.0 +3.6 -5.5
  Dec 02, 2022 274   Texas Arlington W 63-59 87%     7 - 1 -4.5 -6.7 +2.6
  Dec 10, 2022 67   Wake Forest W 72-70 33%     8 - 1 +10.3 +1.7 +8.7
  Dec 13, 2022 254   NC Central W 67-57 86%     9 - 1 +2.5 -6.9 +9.6
  Dec 17, 2022 244   Winthrop W 89-81 85%     10 - 1 +1.0 +10.8 -9.7
  Dec 21, 2022 223   East Tennessee St. W 72-68 82%     11 - 1 -1.7 -2.6 +0.8
  Dec 28, 2022 18   Arkansas W 60-57 24%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +14.2 -3.4 +17.6
  Jan 03, 2023 32   @ Kentucky L 71-74 15%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +12.0 +17.3 -5.8
  Jan 07, 2023 42   @ Texas A&M L 56-69 18%     12 - 3 1 - 2 +0.4 -6.1 +5.3
  Jan 10, 2023 40   Florida L 56-67 33%     12 - 4 1 - 3 -2.5 -5.5 +2.4
  Jan 14, 2023 2   @ Alabama L 66-106 6%     12 - 5 1 - 4 -18.2 +2.4 -19.2
  Jan 18, 2023 27   Auburn L 49-67 27%     12 - 6 1 - 5 -7.9 -12.5 +2.6
  Jan 21, 2023 3   Tennessee L 56-77 13%     12 - 7 1 - 6 -5.0 +0.5 -7.7
  Jan 24, 2023 18   @ Arkansas L 40-60 12%     12 - 8 1 - 7 -3.4 -17.6 +11.7
  Jan 28, 2023 53   Texas Tech L 68-76 38%     12 - 9 -0.9 +9.9 -12.1
  Feb 01, 2023 46   @ Missouri L 77-87 20%     12 - 10 1 - 8 +2.8 +5.0 -2.2
  Feb 04, 2023 2   Alabama L 67-79 12%    
  Feb 08, 2023 55   @ Mississippi St. L 57-65 21%    
  Feb 11, 2023 42   Texas A&M L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 14, 2023 103   @ Georgia L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 18, 2023 229   South Carolina W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 22, 2023 97   Vanderbilt W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 25, 2023 95   @ Mississippi L 63-67 35%    
  Mar 01, 2023 46   Missouri L 75-78 38%    
  Mar 04, 2023 40   @ Florida L 61-71 17%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.7 2.3 0.1 8.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 7.6 6.2 0.7 0.0 15.6 11th
12th 0.0 2.6 13.3 12.5 2.2 0.0 30.6 12th
13th 4.0 15.0 12.9 2.5 0.1 34.5 13th
14th 1.1 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.3 14th
Total 1.1 7.5 19.3 27.4 23.6 14.1 5.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.2% 7.5% 2.2% 5.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.5%
8-10 1.4% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.4%
7-11 5.5% 1.6% 1.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 14.1% 1.3% 1.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.9
5-13 23.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 23.4
4-14 27.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 27.2
3-15 19.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.2
2-16 7.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
1-17 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1% 0.4% 16.0 0.4