LSU
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#47
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#30
Pace72.6#82
Improvement+1.1#112

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#53
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#56
Layup/Dunks+3.3#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#259
Freethrows+3.7#29
Improvement+1.6#63

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#54
First Shot+5.5#37
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#218
Layups/Dunks+1.6#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#30
Freethrows+0.2#178
Improvement-0.5#226
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 4.9% 5.1% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 13.9% 14.7% 5.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.3% 47.9% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.9% 47.4% 28.4%
Average Seed 7.8 7.8 8.4
.500 or above 83.6% 85.5% 62.8%
.500 or above in Conference 27.0% 28.0% 16.3%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 14.1% 21.3%
First Four6.7% 6.7% 6.0%
First Round42.9% 44.4% 25.7%
Second Round23.4% 24.4% 12.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 8.8% 4.1%
Elite Eight3.1% 3.3% 1.5%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 11
Quad 25 - 210 - 13
Quad 31 - 011 - 13
Quad 48 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 332   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     1 - 0 +22.2 +12.4 +8.1
  Nov 10, 2024 285   Alabama St. W 74-61 96%     2 - 0 +3.5 -5.5 +8.7
  Nov 14, 2024 59   @ Kansas St. W 76-65 42%     3 - 0 +23.4 +11.4 +12.2
  Nov 19, 2024 276   Charleston Southern W 77-68 96%     4 - 0 -0.3 +2.6 -2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 36   Pittsburgh L 63-74 42%     4 - 1 +1.3 -2.7 +3.6
  Nov 24, 2024 83   Central Florida W 109-102 3OT 65%     5 - 1 +13.5 +9.8 +1.7
  Nov 29, 2024 297   Northwestern St. W 77-53 96%     6 - 1 +13.9 +0.2 +13.8
  Dec 03, 2024 61   Florida St. W 85-75 65%     7 - 1 +16.3 +13.1 +2.8
  Dec 08, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 77-62 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 62   SMU W 80-79 54%    
  Dec 17, 2024 329   Stetson W 88-65 98%    
  Dec 22, 2024 344   New Orleans W 91-65 99%    
  Dec 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 86-51 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 67   Vanderbilt W 80-76 66%    
  Jan 07, 2025 63   @ Missouri L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 73-79 28%    
  Jan 14, 2025 33   Arkansas W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 30   @ Texas A&M L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 78-89 16%    
  Jan 29, 2025 3   Auburn L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 34   Texas W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 38   @ Georgia L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 26   Mississippi L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 33   @ Arkansas L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 41   @ Oklahoma L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 18, 2025 69   South Carolina W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 10   Florida L 78-82 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 4   Tennessee L 68-75 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 15   @ Mississippi St. L 72-80 25%    
  Mar 04, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 76-86 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 30   Texas A&M W 72-71 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.9 0.1 5.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.8 1.7 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.3 3.8 4.0 0.3 8.5 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 5.0 1.5 0.0 8.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 4.9 3.4 0.2 9.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 9.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.0 1.7 0.1 10.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.8 15th
16th 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.3 16th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.0 9.2 12.2 14.0 14.3 13.2 10.1 7.3 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 66.7% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 69.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 44.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.5% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 2.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.3% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.9% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 4.6% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 7.3% 98.4% 1.1% 97.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
9-9 10.1% 95.6% 1.2% 94.4% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.5%
8-10 13.2% 80.1% 0.6% 79.5% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.8 3.0 1.6 0.0 2.6 80.0%
7-11 14.3% 47.0% 0.2% 46.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.0 0.3 7.6 46.9%
6-12 14.0% 16.7% 0.0% 16.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.4 11.7 16.7%
5-13 12.2% 1.3% 1.3% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.0 1.3%
4-14 9.2% 9.2
3-15 6.0% 6.0
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 46.3% 0.8% 45.5% 7.8 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.4 3.9 5.2 6.1 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.4 0.8 53.7 45.9%