Missouri
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.0 49
Expected Predictive Rating +14.7 35
Pace 67.2 223
Improvement +1.7 123

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 45 B A- C- B B-
Defense B- 76 B- B C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 B+ 66% 38 +6.8 12
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 248 D 34% 311 -2.1 279
Three Pointers 39% 228 B- 36% 82 +0.4 165
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.9 68 B +4.0 61
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 48
Second Chance B+ 36.7% 32 B+ 1.17 32 A- 0.43 18
Turnovers C- 17.9% 259
Freethrows A- 0.38 12 D 68% 314 B 0.26 51
Total Offense B+ +7.5 45

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 142 B 8.6% 57
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 182 C+ 4.3% 126
Three Pointers B- 88% 97 A- 0.0% 6
Total C+ 58% 121 B 4.5% 62

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 345 A- 49% 17 -7.2 11
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 53 C+ 37% 118 +1.4 297
Three Pointers 44% 86 D+ 36% 270 +2.9 310
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 28 C+ -1.7 109
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 88
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 117 A- 0.87 15 B 0.25 41
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 144
Freethrows B- 0.28 111 D+ 74% 297 C+ 0.21 147
Total Defense B- +3.5 76

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 78 B 14.9% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 152 C 4.9% 170
Three Pointers B- 81% 93 A- 2.1% 28
Total C+ 54% 137 B- 6.7% 89

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 108 18.4 325
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 50 0.13 46
Improvement -0.3 #201 +2.0 #73

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 62 50 41
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 10 8 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None 10 8
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 1% 3% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65% 84% 62%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65% 84% 61%
Average Seed 9.4 8.7 9.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 87% 100% 85%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four11% 5% 13%
First Round59% 81% 55%
Second Round21% 32% 19%
Sweet Sixteen3% 5% 3%
Elite Eight1% 1% 1%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 16.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 24 - 49 - 12
Quad 33 - 012 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 215 @Howard W 88 - 67 85% +14  97% 1 - 0 A +21 A +14 A A+ D- B+ +7 C A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 227 Southeast Missouri St. W 89 - 84 94% +2  61% 2 - 0 C -2 B- +5 A+ D+ F D- -7 F+ B+ B+
 Sun, Nov 9 358 VMI W 106 - 68 99% +11  80% 3 - 0 A +19 A +12 D- A+ B B +5 F+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 66 Minnesota W 83 - 60 70% +3  44% 4 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +22 A+ A+ A A +9 B+ A- B-
 Mon, Nov 17 334 Prairie View W 91 - 73 98% +19  97% 5 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +2 C+ B- C C +0 B- C+ F+
 Thu, Nov 20 291 South Dakota W 102 - 68 97% +14  93% 6 - 0 A+ +24 A+ +15 A+ A F A- +7 B F A
 Tue, Nov 25 357 South Carolina St. W 98 - 66 99% +24  99% 7 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +15 F A+ A- C- -2 B+ C+ F+
 Fri, Nov 28 312 Cleveland St. W 86 - 59 97% +19  95% 8 - 0 A- +15 C- -2 C A+ F A+ +16 A- A A+
 Tue, Dec 2 84 @Notre Dame L 71 - 76 54% +1  60% 8 - 1 B- +5 C +1 C+ C- D B +3 C A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 15 @Kansas L 60 - 80 15% -8  17% 8 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 C C+ C C -0 B D- C-
 Thu, Dec 11 309 Alabama St. W 85 - 77 97% +11  99% 9 - 2 C- -4 A+ +16 A+ A+ C+ F -19 F F F
 Sun, Dec 14 241 Bethune-Cookman W 82 - 60 95% +15  96% 10 - 2 A- +15 B+ +9 A- A+ F A- +7 B+ F+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 5 Illinois L 48 - 91 13% -17  1% 10 - 3 F -20 F -14 F+ D- D- F -12 B F A
 Sat, Jan 3 4 Florida W 76 - 74 19% +1  48% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A +22 A +14 A+ A- B A +8 A- A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 25 @Kentucky W 73 - 68 23% -0  40% 12 - 3 2 - 0 A+ +24 B+ +8 A+ D C- A+ +16 A- A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 73 @Mississippi L 69 - 76 50% +1  42% 12 - 4 2 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 A+ D D+ C+ +1 B+ C+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 33 Auburn W 84 - 74 48% +4  68% 13 - 4 3 - 1 A +22 A +12 A+ C- C A +10 A+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @LSU L 70 - 78 41% -7  0% 13 - 5 3 - 2 B- +5 B+ +8 D+ A+ F+ D+ -4 A F D-
 Tue, Jan 20 36 Georgia L 72 - 74 49% -2  29% 13 - 6 3 - 3 B +9 C+ +2 C+ D+ B A- +7 A A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 51 Oklahoma W 88 - 87 OT 63% -0  30% 14 - 6 4 - 3 B +9 B +6 D+ A C B- +2 D A+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 19 @Alabama L 64 - 90 17% -12  8% 14 - 7 4 - 4 C- -5 F+ -9 F+ A F+ B+ +6 B+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 31 69 Mississippi St. W 84 - 79 71% +8  93% 15 - 7 5 - 4 B +10 B+ +8 A- D+ C C+ +2 C- A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 94 @South Carolina W 78 - 59 59% +9  97% 16 - 7 6 - 4 A+ +28 A +13 B A+ F A+ +16 A+ A D
 Wed, Feb 11 35 @Texas A&M W 86 - 85 27% -1  35% 17 - 7 7 - 4 A +18 A+ +23 A A A+ D -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 27 Texas L 68 - 85 45% -3  32% 17 - 8 7 - 5 C- -5 C +0 D- A+ C+ D -6 C B- F+
 Wed, Feb 18 14 Vanderbilt W 81 - 80 32% +6  80% 18 - 8 8 - 5 A- +17 A +12 A+ B C B +5 B A- B
 Sat, Feb 21 17 @Arkansas L 76 - 87 16%
 Tue, Feb 24 16 Tennessee L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 69 @Mississippi St. L 76 - 77 49%
 Tue, Mar 3 51 @Oklahoma L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Mar 7 17 Arkansas L 79 - 84 33%
Totals 20 - 11 10 - 8 +11 B+ +7 C+ B B- B- +3 B- D B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ D B- B 44% 32% 39% B- B B+ B+ A- C- A- D B B- A- C+ D+ C+ 31% 25% 44% B+ B- C+ A- B C+ B- D+ C+
1.19 66% 34% 36% +4 +1 1.12 37% 1.2 .43 18% .38 68% .26 1.04 49% 37% 36% -2 -1 0.96 29% 0.9 .25 17% .28 74% .28
Nov
3		 Howard A C F A+ A 57% 6% 37% A A A+ A- A+ D- B F F+ B+ A+ A+ F C 34% 15% 51% C+ C A+ A+ A+ D A- B+ A
1.23 57% 0% 50% +6 +3 1.20 47% 1.3 .59 22% .38 48% .18 0.93 33% 25% 41% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.7 .17 18% .27 69% .19
Nov
7		 Southeast Missouri St. B- A+ A+ B+ A+ 41% 33% 27% F A+ B- F D+ F A+ F B D- D- F D+ F 26% 31% 43% A+ F+ F A+ B+ B+ D+ F F+
1.15 75% 63% 38% +17 -1 1.33 31% 0.9 .28 25% .53 61% .33 1.09 64% 53% 35% +7 -2 1.11 38% 0.7 .26 21% .34 81% .28
Nov
9		 VMI A A- D F F 49% 16% 35% B+ D- A A+ A+ B A+ C- A+ B A+ F+ F+ F 6% 17% 77% A+ F+ A- A+ A+ A D- D D-
1.40 72% 38% 22% +1 +1 1.06 50% 1.8 .88 15% .54 71% .39 0.90 0% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 20% 0.3 .05 22% .34 75% .26
Nov
12		 Minnesota A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 28% 26% 46% C- A+ F A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ A A- F A+ B 33% 27% 40% A B+ F A+ A- B- C+ A+ A
1.34 85% 42% 48% +18 -1 1.35 13% 3.0 .39 15% .38 70% .27 0.97 53% 67% 22% -1 -1 0.98 39% 0.6 .22 18% .33 53% .18
Nov
17		 Prairie View C+ C F A+ C 50% 11% 39% B+ C+ C- A- B- C B- D- C C A A+ D- B 35% 28% 37% D+ B- A+ F C+ F+ A+ F A-
1.19 59% 17% 43% +3 +2 1.13 35% 1.3 .44 18% .40 68% .27 0.96 43% 24% 36% -8 -1 0.83 14% 1.5 .21 12% .24 88% .21
Nov
20		 South Dakota A+ A A A+ A+ 68% 13% 19% B+ A+ A+ D A F A+ B+ A+ A- D- B B+ C+ 23% 27% 50% A+ B D F F A C A+ A
1.38 72% 50% 56% +17 +3 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 23% .53 80% .42 0.92 64% 31% 29% -4 -2 0.90 32% 1.3 .39 23% .37 57% .21
Nov
25		 South Carolina St. A+ B+ D F F 39% 22% 39% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A- A B+ A+ C- D- B A+ A- 27% 33% 40% C B+ C+ C C+ F+ F F F
1.40 70% 36% 20% -4 0 0.94 54% 1.9 1.03 13% .49 77% .38 0.94 62% 31% 21% -9 -2 0.79 27% 1.0 .27 17% .47 74% .34
Nov
28		 Cleveland St. C- A+ C C- C 27% 10% 63% C+ C A+ C+ A+ F F+ A D A+ B- A+ D+ A- 29% 18% 53% C+ A- B- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+
1.22 79% 40% 34% +6 +1 1.16 51% 1.1 .57 23% .24 85% .20 0.83 53% 11% 37% -4 0 0.94 24% 0.6 .13 24% .20 55% .11
Dec
2		 Notre Dame C A+ F+ F C 38% 21% 42% B- C+ C+ D- C- D A+ F+ A+ B F F B C- 21% 19% 60% B- C A+ A+ A+ B C- F D-
1.03 72% 30% 25% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 17% .44 68% .30 1.11 82% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 24% 0.7 .17 19% .32 83% .27
Dec
7		 Kansas C C F F D+ 49% 8% 43% A+ C A F+ C+ C A+ F A- C C+ A+ C A- 45% 19% 36% D B F+ C D- C- F B F
0.91 52% 0% 23% -13 +2 0.80 36% 0.7 .24 15% .38 52% .20 1.22 62% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.3 .48 14% .46 73% .34
Dec
11		 Alabama St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 23% 33% D+ A+ C A+ A+ C+ D- F+ F+ F C+ C F F 25% 27% 47% A- F C- F F F A- B A-
1.37 79% 50% 50% +20 0 1.42 33% 1.9 .62 18% .31 69% .22 1.24 54% 36% 46% +7 -2 1.12 32% 1.3 .42 11% .22 67% .15
Dec
14		 Bethune-Cookman B+ C+ A+ C A- 49% 14% 37% B- A- A A+ A+ F F F F A- A+ D+ F A 54% 20% 27% F+ B+ A+ F F+ A+ F F F
1.22 58% 71% 33% +5 +2 1.14 42% 1.9 .81 22% .21 64% .13 0.89 32% 38% 45% -10 +1 0.85 18% 2.0 .36 24% .41 76% .31
Dec
22		 Illinois F F F C- F+ 28% 32% 40% C F+ B+ F D- D- A+ D+ A+ F C B F+ C+ 18% 25% 57% A+ B F F F A F C F
0.77 38% 20% 32% -13 -2 0.72 30% 0.4 .13 16% .29 67% .19 1.46 63% 36% 40% +6 -2 1.09 56% 1.9 1.07 18% .39 80% .31
Jan
3		 Florida A A+ F A A+ 34% 23% 43% B- A+ A B A- B A+ F A+ A B- A+ B+ A 45% 8% 47% C- A- A+ A+ A+ F+ B- D+ C+
1.12 69% 27% 40% +5 -1 1.11 31% 0.8 .26 15% .52 60% .31 1.09 58% 25% 28% -5 +2 0.96 33% 0.8 .26 12% .33 75% .25
Jan
7		 Kentucky B+ A- A+ B- A+ 46% 20% 34% A- A+ F A D C- B- C B- A+ B- B- C- B+ 37% 33% 30% A+ A- A+ A A+ A F C+ F+
1.07 65% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.16 15% 1.0 .15 18% .32 72% .23 1.00 59% 33% 36% 0 -2 0.98 24% 1.0 .24 19% .44 71% .31
Jan
10		 Mississippi C+ A+ F C- A+ 37% 15% 48% B+ A+ C- F+ D D+ A+ F C C+ D+ A F B 17% 45% 38% A+ B+ B- C C+ D C- D D+
1.03 82% 29% 32% +6 +1 1.15 27% 0.9 .24 19% .45 50% .22 1.14 67% 29% 40% +1 -5 0.94 28% 1.1 .31 10% .32 79% .25
Jan
14		 Auburn A A+ C+ A+ A+ 49% 12% 40% A A+ C- C- C- C A+ F+ A+ A B+ A- B A+ 40% 19% 40% B- A+ B- B- B B F B D-
1.23 71% 40% 47% +15 +2 1.35 27% 1.0 .27 19% .56 68% .38 1.08 53% 33% 32% -5 0 0.94 38% 1.0 .38 16% .49 71% .35
Jan
17		 LSU B+ B+ F F D 40% 23% 38% C+ D+ B- A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C A+ C- A- 28% 28% 43% A+ A F D- F D- F+ C- F+
1.13 63% 22% 27% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.4 .46 19% .60 80% .48 1.26 62% 23% 35% -3 -2 0.93 43% 1.3 .57 11% .42 78% .33
Jan
20		 Georgia C+ B F C+ C+ 44% 17% 38% B C+ B F D+ B D A+ B- A- A+ C+ D B+ 29% 29% 42% A+ A F+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F F
1.06 61% 11% 35% -3 +1 0.98 38% 0.7 .25 18% .21 92% .20 1.09 47% 40% 36% -1 -2 0.96 44% 0.6 .26 15% .36 86% .31
Jan
24		 Oklahoma B D B D- D 41% 22% 37% B- D+ A B A C A+ C- A+ B- A+ F F F 21% 30% 49% A+ D A+ A+ A+ B F D+ F
1.17 50% 42% 30% -5 0 0.93 41% 1.1 .46 16% .52 73% .38 1.15 45% 56% 46% +12 -2 1.21 17% 0.6 .10 16% .47 77% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Alabama F+ C- F F F 43% 20% 37% B+ F+ B+ A A F+ A+ F D- B+ A- D C- B+ 30% 7% 63% C+ B+ A+ D+ A D- D F F
0.86 52% 18% 20% -14 0 0.74 33% 1.1 .37 18% .38 35% .13 1.21 53% 50% 36% +1 +1 1.07 22% 1.3 .27 9% .39 88% .34
Jan
31		 Mississippi St. B+ B+ C B+ A 22% 27% 51% C- A- B+ F D+ C A+ B- A+ C+ A+ F F D 26% 33% 41% A+ C- D A+ A+ A- C- B- C-
1.15 64% 38% 36% +3 -2 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 14% .52 76% .40 1.08 43% 56% 41% +6 -3 1.09 35% 0.4 .14 19% .30 67% .20
Feb
7		 South Carolina A D+ B+ B+ B- 42% 16% 42% B+ B A+ C+ A+ F A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 32% 27% 41% A- A+ C+ A+ A D F C- F
1.19 53% 43% 37% 0 +1 1.04 48% 1.0 .48 21% .58 70% .41 0.90 43% 33% 17% -17 -1 0.66 28% 0.7 .21 12% .47 81% .38
Feb
11		 Texas A&M A+ A+ F A- A 49% 17% 34% B+ A A+ C- A A+ C- F D- D C F+ F F 39% 4% 57% C- F A A+ A+ C- B+ D B
1.31 77% 11% 39% +7 +1 1.19 47% 0.9 .41 14% .26 60% .16 1.30 60% 50% 52% +16 +2 1.39 26% 0.3 .06 14% .26 80% .21
Feb
14		 Texas C F+ F C- F 55% 23% 23% A- D- B- A+ A+ C+ A+ D A+ D F A+ D D+ 35% 33% 31% A+ C D- A+ B- F+ C F F+
1.05 45% 22% 33% -11 +1 0.83 27% 1.8 .47 14% .68 68% .47 1.32 83% 29% 38% +8 -2 1.14 44% 1.0 .44 11% .40 91% .37
Feb
18		 Vanderbilt A C- F A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B+ A+ B B- B C A+ B A+ B A+ F F B 37% 20% 43% B- B F A+ A- B B- C+ B-
1.16 53% 13% 53% +4 +1 1.11 32% 1.0 .32 20% .57 78% .45 1.14 40% 55% 43% +3 0 1.07 40% 0.8 .30 16% .31 78% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 0.4 2.1 2nd
3rd 1.1 2.7 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.1 4.8 0.8 5.7 4th
5th 1.5 7.4 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 8.4 3.4 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 14.2 0.5 17.4 7th
8th 0.3 12.6 7.2 0.0 20.1 8th
9th 4.0 13.8 0.9 18.7 9th
10th 6.3 2.7 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 2.1 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 12.7 32.0 32.2 17.3 5.3 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 7.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 98.6% 5.6% 93.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
12-6 5.3% 96.2% 1.9% 94.3% 7.8 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.1%
11-7 17.3% 89.4% 1.1% 88.2% 8.7 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.9 6.1 2.5 0.3 1.8 89.2%
10-8 32.2% 76.6% 0.4% 76.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.2 8.1 9.6 3.2 0.0 7.5 76.5%
9-9 32.0% 55.5% 0.2% 55.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 7.0 7.8 0.0 14.2 55.5%
8-10 12.7% 13.6% 0.1% 13.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.1 11.0 13.6%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 65.2% 0.5% 64.6% 9.4 34.8 65.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 6.6 2.3 45.5 40.9 11.4
Lose Out 8.4% 3.4% 11.2 2.9 0.6