Missouri
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#63
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#64
Pace70.5#143
Improvement+0.9#132

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#31
First Shot+5.6#43
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#98
Layup/Dunks+5.7#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#297
Freethrows+3.7#30
Improvement+1.9#44

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#105
First Shot+2.3#110
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#203
Layups/Dunks+3.3#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows+0.3#165
Improvement-1.1#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 3.4% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 5.6% 10.5% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 40.6% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.7% 40.2% 21.5%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 8.6
.500 or above 66.7% 82.6% 60.6%
.500 or above in Conference 22.0% 28.5% 19.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 19.0% 13.9% 20.9%
First Four4.7% 5.9% 4.2%
First Round24.5% 37.3% 19.6%
Second Round12.7% 19.6% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 6.8% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.7% 1.1%
Final Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 27.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 13
Quad 23 - 27 - 15
Quad 32 - 09 - 15
Quad 49 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 32   @ Memphis L 75-83 26%     0 - 1 +7.9 +4.4 +3.9
  Nov 08, 2024 284   Howard W 77-62 95%     1 - 1 +5.5 -1.9 +7.6
  Nov 11, 2024 239   Eastern Washington W 84-77 93%     2 - 1 -0.2 +6.7 -6.7
  Nov 14, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 111-39 99%     3 - 1 +47.8 +32.2 +17.8
  Nov 22, 2024 277   Pacific W 91-56 95%     4 - 1 +25.7 +20.6 +7.2
  Nov 24, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 112-63 99%     5 - 1 +28.6 +15.0 +8.5
  Nov 27, 2024 354   Lindenwood W 81-61 98%     6 - 1 +3.7 -1.8 +4.8
  Dec 03, 2024 109   California W 98-93 78%     7 - 1 +5.8 +16.0 -10.6
  Dec 08, 2024 7   Kansas L 74-80 28%    
  Dec 14, 2024 342   LIU Brooklyn W 87-63 99%    
  Dec 17, 2024 174   Jacksonville St. W 79-66 88%    
  Dec 22, 2024 14   Illinois L 76-82 28%    
  Dec 30, 2024 285   Alabama St. W 86-67 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 73-87 10%    
  Jan 07, 2025 47   LSU W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 67   Vanderbilt W 81-78 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 10   @ Florida L 75-86 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 33   Arkansas L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 21, 2025 34   @ Texas L 70-77 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 26   Mississippi L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   @ Mississippi St. L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 05, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 66-80 10%    
  Feb 08, 2025 30   Texas A&M L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 12, 2025 41   Oklahoma W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 38   @ Georgia L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 5   Alabama L 82-88 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 33   @ Arkansas L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 69   South Carolina W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 67   @ Vanderbilt L 78-81 41%    
  Mar 05, 2025 41   @ Oklahoma L 73-78 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 9   Kentucky L 79-85 31%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.6 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.2 1.6 0.1 6.8 9th
10th 0.4 3.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.0 5.3 1.3 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 5.1 3.1 0.2 9.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.4 2.0 0.0 11.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.8 15th
16th 0.3 1.3 3.0 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.9 16th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.7 7.3 11.3 13.7 14.6 13.9 11.9 9.1 6.0 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 64.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 36.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.4% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.0% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 1.9% 99.3% 3.8% 95.4% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-7 3.6% 98.6% 1.8% 96.7% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
10-8 6.0% 91.4% 1.3% 90.1% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 91.3%
9-9 9.1% 75.8% 0.7% 75.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.0 2.2 75.6%
8-10 11.9% 44.1% 0.5% 43.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.6 43.8%
7-11 13.9% 15.2% 0.2% 15.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.2 11.8 15.1%
6-12 14.6% 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 14.2 2.9%
5-13 13.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.2%
4-14 11.3% 11.3
3-15 7.3% 7.3
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 27.0% 0.5% 26.6% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.6 0.0 73.0 26.7%