Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#48
Expected Predictive Rating+6.9#87
Pace64.2#299
Improvement-3.3#340

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#32
First Shot+3.3#81
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#48
Layup/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#230
Freethrows+1.3#100
Improvement+0.0#181

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#73
First Shot+3.2#82
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#151
Layups/Dunks+6.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#333
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#274
Freethrows+2.5#47
Improvement-3.4#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 4.5% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 8.6% 13.4% 5.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.9% 54.5% 33.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.6% 53.2% 31.8%
Average Seed 8.3 8.1 8.7
.500 or above 80.1% 89.6% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 56.0% 62.1% 51.8%
Conference Champion 2.3% 3.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.4% 2.5%
First Four5.5% 5.7% 5.3%
First Round39.1% 51.6% 30.4%
Second Round20.2% 27.5% 15.2%
Sweet Sixteen6.6% 9.4% 4.6%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.5% 1.6%
Final Four0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Neutral) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 23 - 37 - 12
Quad 36 - 213 - 14
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 311   North Alabama W 75-49 96%     1 - 0 +14.3 -0.2 +15.0
  Nov 13, 2021 209   Montana W 86-49 90%     2 - 0 +32.1 +14.0 +19.7
  Nov 17, 2021 204   Detroit Mercy W 77-64 90%     3 - 0 +8.3 +9.7 +0.4
  Nov 21, 2021 143   Morehead St. W 66-46 84%     4 - 0 +18.8 +2.0 +19.6
  Nov 25, 2021 37   Louisville L 58-72 43%     4 - 1 -2.6 -9.2 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2021 62   Richmond W 82-71 OT 58%     5 - 1 +18.5 +9.5 +8.8
  Dec 02, 2021 313   Lamar W 75-60 97%     6 - 1 +3.1 +3.9 +1.2
  Dec 05, 2021 71   Minnesota L 76-81 70%     6 - 2 -1.0 +11.1 -12.4
  Dec 11, 2021 32   Colorado St. L 72-74 41%    
  Dec 14, 2021 145   Georgia St. W 80-69 85%    
  Dec 17, 2021 110   Furman W 75-66 79%    
  Dec 20, 2021 157   Winthrop W 80-71 79%    
  Dec 29, 2021 25   Arkansas L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 05, 2022 158   @ Missouri W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 61   @ Mississippi L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 12, 2022 150   Georgia W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 15, 2022 10   Alabama L 73-77 34%    
  Jan 19, 2022 30   @ Florida L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 22, 2022 61   Mississippi W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 25, 2022 15   @ Kentucky L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 29, 2022 19   @ Texas Tech L 64-71 25%    
  Feb 01, 2022 118   South Carolina W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 05, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 09, 2022 13   Tennessee L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 11   @ LSU L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 16, 2022 10   @ Alabama L 70-80 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 158   Missouri W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 23, 2022 118   @ South Carolina W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 86   Vanderbilt W 71-65 72%    
  Mar 02, 2022 16   Auburn L 71-73 41%    
  Mar 05, 2022 76   @ Texas A&M L 64-65 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.5 1.1 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.6 2.3 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.7 4.8 0.8 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.3 1.3 0.1 9.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.1 8.3 11.9 14.3 15.1 13.8 11.2 7.9 4.7 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.1% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 74.4% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 36.3% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.8% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.9% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.2% 99.8% 9.6% 90.2% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 4.7% 98.7% 8.0% 90.8% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
12-6 7.9% 95.2% 5.5% 89.8% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.0%
11-7 11.2% 84.6% 3.6% 81.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 84.0%
10-8 13.8% 64.0% 1.9% 62.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.0 63.3%
9-9 15.1% 37.7% 1.0% 36.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.0 9.4 37.1%
8-10 14.3% 13.6% 0.8% 12.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.4 13.0%
7-11 11.9% 3.3% 0.4% 2.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.5 2.9%
6-12 8.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.3%
5-13 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0%
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.9% 2.2% 39.7% 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.5 5.2 6.8 6.9 6.3 5.7 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 58.1 40.6%