Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.4 11
Expected Predictive Rating +19.9 13
Pace 66.1 249
Improvement -2.0 268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense B+ 34 B A C B+ D+
Defense A 7 A A+ C B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 219 B+ 66% 39 +2.1 105
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 116 C+ 39% 139 +2.2 69
Three Pointers 37% 260 B 37% 42 +0.0 179
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 281 B+ +4.9 41
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 65
Second Chance A 40.7% 5 B- 1.09 89 A 0.44 12
Turnovers C 17.2% 201
Freethrows B 0.35 39 B 76% 75 B+ 0.27 30
Total Offense B+ +8.2 34

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A+ 70% 2 B+ 7.5% 31
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 49% 6 C+ 4.6% 155
Three Pointers A+ 99% 1 C- 1.1% 251
Total A+ 74% 2 B 4.4% 51

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 351 A- 48% 14 -8.0 6
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 91 A- 32% 13 -0.4 161
Three Pointers 47% 29 B+ 30% 40 +0.6 211
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 42 A -6.8 9
1st FG Attempt A 0.86 11
Second Chance A+ 19.2% 1 A+ 0.73 2 A+ 0.14 1
Turnovers C 17.3% 152
Freethrows B+ 0.25 34 C 72% 154 B 0.18 38
Total Defense A +11.2 7

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 48 A 19.8% 11
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 29 A+ 11.6% 7
Three Pointers D+ 88% 294 D 0.2% 318
Total C 55% 156 A- 8.7% 21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 66 19.0 356
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 2 0.14 69
Improvement +1.7 #104 -3.7 #335

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 20 12 8
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 6 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed 6 4 2
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round Sweet 16 Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 2% 2% 1%
Top 2 Seed 11% 13% 4%
Top 4 Seed 65% 70% 46%
Top 6 Seed 98% 99% 94%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.0 3.9 4.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round93% 94% 89%
Sweet Sixteen55% 57% 48%
Elite Eight24% 25% 19%
Final Four11% 11% 8%
Championship Game4% 4% 3%
National Champion2% 2% 1%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 18 - 7
Quad 26 - 114 - 8
Quad 36 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 237 Colgate W 80 - 69 98% +6  96% 1 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 F A+ C+ B- +3 F+ A+ B
 Sat, Nov 8 17 Arkansas W 69 - 66 65% +2  67% 2 - 0 A +19 C -0 D- A- D- A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 221 San Jose St. W 79 - 60 98% +14  99% 3 - 0 B+ +13 C+ +3 C- C A A +11 A A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 25 Kentucky W 83 - 66 64% +11  86% 4 - 0 A+ +33 A +13 A+ B- C- A+ +19 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 252 Detroit Mercy W 84 - 56 99% +16  98% 5 - 0 A +20 B- +5 D+ A+ F+ A+ +16 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 242 East Carolina W 89 - 56 98% +22  96% 6 - 0 A+ +29 A- +10 A- A B A+ +17 C A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 30 North Carolina W 74 - 58 67% +4  79% 7 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +16 A+ A+ D A+ +17 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 2 26 Iowa W 71 - 52 74% +12  79% 8 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +32 A+ +15 D A+ D+ A+ +20 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 2 Duke L 60 - 66 43% -0  42% 8 - 1 A- +15 C +1 F+ B- A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 115 @Penn St. W 76 - 72 89% +1  57% 9 - 1 2 - 0 B +10 C+ +2 C B+ F A- +8 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 16 169 Toledo W 92 - 69 97% +20  99% 10 - 1 A +19 A- +10 B+ A D- A +9 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 170 Oakland W 79 - 70 96% +4  66% 11 - 1 B +8 C+ +2 D B+ C- B+ +7 D+ A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 148 Cornell W 114 - 97 97% +6  54% 12 - 1 B+ +14 A +13 A C+ C C -1 C A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 13 @Nebraska L 56 - 58 40% -1  25% 12 - 2 2 - 1 A +20 C- -2 C B F A+ +21 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 53 USC W 80 - 51 87% +14  86% 13 - 2 3 - 1 A+ +36 B+ +8 A+ D C+ A+ +28 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 67 Northwestern W 76 - 66 90% +0  45% 14 - 2 4 - 1 A- +15 B +6 C+ A+ F A +10 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 37 Indiana W 81 - 60 80% +5  67% 15 - 2 5 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +16 A+ A- F A+ +18 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 44 @Washington W 80 - 63 68% +8  88% 16 - 2 6 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +15 B+ A A+ A+ +17 B A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 91 @Oregon W 68 - 52 83% +4  79% 17 - 2 7 - 1 A+ +25 A- +10 A+ B+ D- A+ +18 A- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 107 Maryland W 91 - 48 95% +24  99% 18 - 2 8 - 1 A+ +44 A+ +27 A+ A+ A A+ +23 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 109 @Rutgers W 88 - 79 OT 88% -5  16% 19 - 2 9 - 1 A- +16 A +14 C+ A+ F+ B- +2 C A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 71 - 83 33% -7  1% 19 - 3 9 - 2 B+ +12 B- +5 B+ D- C- A- +7 A+ A- B+
 Wed, Feb 4 66 @Minnesota L 73 - 76 77% -8  0% 19 - 4 9 - 3 B +9 A +12 C+ A+ A D+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 5 Illinois W 85 - 82 OT 48% -2  20% 20 - 4 10 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +15 A A- B- A +8 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Feb 13 29 @Wisconsin L 71 - 92 56% -14  0% 20 - 5 10 - 4 C- -3 B- +4 D+ D+ B+ D- -8 B- F D-
 Tue, Feb 17 39 UCLA W 82 - 59 80% +17  90% 21 - 5 11 - 4 A+ +33 A+ +16 A+ A+ D+ A+ +19 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Feb 22 34 Ohio St. W 77 - 69 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 8 @Purdue L 69 - 74 32%
 Sun, Mar 1 37 @Indiana W 74 - 71 60%
 Thu, Mar 5 109 Rutgers W 80 - 61 96%
 Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 70 - 81 16%
Totals 24 - 7 14 - 6 +19 B+ +8 A B+ D+ A +11 B B B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ C+ B B+ 37% 43% 37% D+ B A B- A C B B B+ A A- A- B+ A 30% 23% 47% B A A+ A+ A+ C B+ C B
1.20 66% 39% 37% +5 -1 1.10 41% 1.1 .44 17% .35 76% .27 0.93 48% 32% 30% -7 -1 0.86 19% 0.7 .14 17% .25 72% .25
Nov
3
Colgate C A- F F F 34% 32% 34% F+ F A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ B- F D D- F 24% 24% 52% B- F+ A+ C A+ B A+ B+ A+
1.16 69% 20% 25% -7 -2 0.85 46% 1.1 .49 14% .62 65% .41 1.00 69% 46% 39% +9 -1 1.17 10% 1.0 .10 19% .11 67% .07
Nov
8
Arkansas C B+ D- F D- 48% 28% 24% C D- A+ F A- D- A+ C+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 30% 17% 52% B- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D
1.01 64% 31% 0% -12 0 0.78 49% 0.9 .46 21% .48 69% .33 0.97 64% 25% 25% -7 0 0.87 33% 0.9 .31 21% .42 65% .28
Nov
13
San Jose St. C+ A+ B+ F C- 38% 18% 44% C- C- B+ F+ C A A+ F A A B B- A+ A 19% 32% 49% B+ A A+ C+ A+ D D+ A C
1.19 79% 44% 23% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.0 .41 14% .44 68% .30 0.91 50% 35% 27% -8 -3 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 14% .31 67% .21
Nov
18
Kentucky A F+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 25% 37% B- A+ B C B- C- F A F A+ B A+ A+ A+ 30% 15% 55% C+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ C- F F+
1.17 45% 50% 52% +8 0 1.18 31% 0.8 .25 18% .17 80% .14 0.93 56% 25% 24% -11 0 0.81 16% 1.0 .16 13% .35 86% .31
Nov
21
Detroit Mercy B- B- A- F C- 31% 25% 43% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A- F A B- 26% 38% 36% B- B- B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A
1.22 63% 46% 27% -1 -1 0.98 44% 1.4 .61 17% .46 77% .35 0.82 46% 47% 28% -3 -3 0.90 30% 0.5 .14 22% .15 88% .13
Nov
25
East Carolina A- A- C- A+ A 32% 29% 39% D A- B A- A B F+ F F A+ A+ C- F C+ 48% 25% 28% D C B- A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
1.24 67% 38% 45% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.3 .47 15% .20 67% .13 0.78 26% 40% 55% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.5 .14 33% .54 69% .37
Nov
27
North Carolina A+ D A+ A+ A+ 45% 37% 18% C- A+ A+ B A+ D D+ A C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 11% 46% D- A+ B- A+ A+ C+ B- C- C+
1.22 48% 53% 56% +7 -2 1.12 40% 1.0 .40 16% .18 78% .14 0.96 65% 20% 19% -9 +2 0.87 32% 0.5 .16 13% .32 71% .23
Dec
2
Iowa A+ C C+ F D 47% 22% 31% C+ D A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C A+ 36% 13% 51% C A+ A+ A+ A+ A- C- A+ B-
1.21 59% 38% 18% -7 0 0.89 52% 1.6 .84 24% .56 88% .49 0.89 50% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.95 20% 0.7 .13 19% .36 65% .23
Dec
6
Duke C C- F C- F+ 36% 29% 35% C F+ B C B- A+ B B- B A+ F+ A+ A- A+ 23% 19% 57% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- F+ A C-
0.93 50% 6% 32% -13 -1 0.73 28% 0.8 .21 8% .24 71% .17 1.03 73% 22% 30% -3 -1 0.94 25% 0.8 .20 12% .41 65% .27
Dec
13
Penn St. C+ F F A+ C- 41% 20% 39% C C A D+ B+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C+ A- B A- 33% 21% 46% B A- A- B A- D+ A+ F A+
1.10 44% 22% 53% +2 0 1.07 38% 1.2 .45 25% .40 86% .35 1.04 58% 33% 31% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 13% .15 89% .13
Dec
16
Toledo A- C+ F A+ B+ 48% 15% 37% B- B+ A+ C- A D- A B- A A A+ C- C- A+ 27% 31% 42% A- A+ A+ A- A+ F B- C B-
1.29 62% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 50% 0.9 .47 21% .34 74% .25 0.96 25% 44% 36% -6 -2 0.86 14% 0.8 .12 6% .25 76% .19
Dec
20
Oakland C+ A+ F D D 31% 29% 41% D- D A- C+ B+ C- A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ C+ F D+ 41% 22% 37% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A F B
1.16 80% 21% 30% 0 -2 0.98 43% 1.0 .43 16% .40 74% .30 1.03 43% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 18% 0.8 .15 18% .23 92% .21
Dec
29
Cornell A A+ B+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 45% D+ A A- D- C+ C A+ D A+ C D+ F D+ C- 31% 8% 62% C+ C A A+ A+ D- D+ D- D
1.37 75% 45% 44% +14 0 1.30 38% 1.0 .38 14% .60 67% .41 1.17 65% 60% 38% +7 +1 1.18 23% 0.7 .15 14% .32 78% .25
Jan
2
Nebraska C- F+ F B+ B- 5% 36% 60% F C A- C- B F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 18% 18% 65% A+ A+ A A+ A+ D+ B- A- B+
0.87 50% 27% 36% -3 -4 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 30% .35 75% .26 0.90 33% 11% 36% -7 -1 0.86 19% 0.9 .17 12% .23 69% .16
Jan
5
USC B+ A- A+ A A+ 33% 33% 35% F+ A+ B- F D C+ B- D C+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+
1.13 65% 59% 39% +12 -2 1.21 31% 0.6 .19 17% .30 72% .22 0.72 58% 23% 13% -15 -1 0.71 22% 0.8 .16 24% .30 75% .22
Jan
8
Northwestern B A+ D+ F C+ 40% 23% 38% C+ C+ A- A+ A+ F A+ C- A+ A A- C- A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ D- C-
1.13 75% 33% 20% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.5 .57 22% .63 70% .44 0.98 50% 42% 23% -10 -1 0.81 21% 1.0 .21 9% .33 80% .26
Jan
13
Indiana A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 38% 16% 47% A- A+ A+ F A- F A+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ B- B 24% 13% 62% A B+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+
1.25 76% 57% 38% +13 +1 1.29 48% 0.8 .41 23% .48 79% .38 0.93 82% 33% 32% +3 0 1.09 17% 1.0 .17 22% .22 73% .16
Jan
17
Washington A+ B A- C- A- 30% 41% 30% F+ B+ A- A- A A+ B- D+ C+ A+ F F A+ B+ 37% 27% 37% C- B A+ F A+ B B+ C- B+
1.20 63% 45% 31% +3 -3 1.02 34% 1.2 .39 7% .29 67% .19 0.94 72% 54% 17% 0 -1 1.00 10% 2.0 .21 18% .24 77% .18
Jan
20
Oregon A- A+ A+ B A+ 25% 32% 43% D- A+ D+ A+ B+ D- F F F A+ A+ D F+ A 41% 20% 39% C+ A- A+ B+ A+ C A+ A+ A+
1.15 73% 64% 37% +14 -2 1.25 26% 1.3 .35 20% .19 56% .11 0.88 32% 44% 39% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.0 .22 17% .22 45% .10
Jan
24
Maryland A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 39% 37% F A+ A A+ A+ A B+ B A- A+ C C A+ A 14% 37% 49% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+
1.45 82% 50% 47% +18 -3 1.30 38% 1.9 .71 13% .35 74% .26 0.77 57% 39% 21% -9 -4 0.76 26% 0.7 .17 18% .21 55% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27
Rutgers A A+ F C- C+ 40% 23% 38% C C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B- C+ C+ C- C 24% 29% 47% C+ C A+ C- A+ F C F D
1.23 79% 9% 33% +1 0 1.04 45% 1.4 .62 21% .46 92% .42 1.10 54% 38% 35% -1 -2 0.96 16% 1.2 .18 7% .35 83% .29
Jan
30
Michigan B- A+ B F B+ 35% 31% 35% C+ B+ A+ F D- C- A+ A+ A+ A- C A- C+ A 32% 32% 36% A+ A+ B+ B- A- B+ D- F F
0.98 65% 40% 18% -6 -2 0.88 38% 0.4 .15 19% .46 85% .39 1.14 63% 31% 33% -1 -2 0.96 34% 1.3 .44 18% .44 88% .39
Feb
4
Minnesota A C+ D- B- C+ 34% 26% 40% C C+ A+ A+ A+ A A- C- B+ D+ F A+ F D- 33% 20% 47% B+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F F D+ F
1.16 59% 31% 35% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.2 .45 14% .32 71% .22 1.21 73% 0% 48% +7 0 1.16 10% 1.0 .10 10% .54 71% .39
Feb
7
Illinois A+ A- A- B- A+ 29% 41% 30% D A A+ D+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ B+ A+ 30% 16% 54% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F D D D-
1.19 63% 43% 35% +4 -3 1.04 39% 0.8 .32 11% .36 87% .32 1.15 56% 20% 30% -7 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .25 6% .36 83% .30
Feb
13
Wisconsin B- F C+ C C 17% 39% 44% F D+ A F D+ B+ C+ A+ A D- D- A- D+ C+ 25% 17% 58% A B- C F F D- D B- D+
1.04 33% 43% 33% -3 -4 0.89 34% 0.6 .20 13% .27 94% .25 1.35 69% 33% 37% +4 -1 1.10 31% 1.7 .54 9% .37 74% .27
Feb
17
UCLA A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 23% 29% 48% F+ A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ F+ A+ C- A+ A+ D C A+ 29% 27% 43% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+
1.25 73% 36% 52% +16 -2 1.29 31% 1.5 .46 21% .21 91% .19 0.90 33% 43% 36% -4 -2 0.90 24% 0.7 .16 17% .22 75% .17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 1.9 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 11.3 0.7 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 15.6 5.4 22.4 4th
5th 1.0 18.9 22.2 0.6 42.8 5th
6th 0.0 3.3 8.2 0.4 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 0.4 2.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.3 7.0 28.9 41.4 19.7 2.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 2.3 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 19.7% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.0 1.1 4.6 7.6 5.2 1.1 0.1 100.0%
14-6 41.4% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 3.9 0.4 2.8 10.8 16.1 9.3 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 28.9% 99.9% 3.9% 96.0% 4.7 0.0 0.5 3.1 8.5 10.7 5.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 7.0% 99.8% 3.2% 96.6% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 0.3% 98.9% 2.2% 96.8% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 4.0 0.0 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.6 47.0 48.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 2.0 21.7 57.2 17.8 2.6 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 2.4 13.0 41.3 36.1 9.6
Lose Out 0.1% 96.6% 7.9 10.3 31.0 24.1 24.1 6.9