Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#27
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#34
Pace67.7#219
Improvement+1.3#98

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#39
First Shot+6.3#37
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#176
Layup/Dunks+8.6#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#349
Freethrows+4.9#6
Improvement+3.4#10

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#23
First Shot+4.6#53
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#45
Layups/Dunks+4.8#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#130
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement-2.1#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.6% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 6.3% 7.8% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 22.4% 26.7% 13.0%
Top 6 Seed 43.4% 49.3% 30.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.6% 85.3% 70.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.1% 84.0% 68.8%
Average Seed 6.3 6.0 7.0
.500 or above 94.4% 96.7% 89.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 83.3% 63.1%
Conference Champion 10.5% 13.3% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four4.6% 3.8% 6.4%
First Round78.4% 83.4% 67.3%
Second Round52.3% 57.2% 41.6%
Sweet Sixteen23.7% 26.6% 17.2%
Elite Eight10.1% 11.5% 6.9%
Final Four4.1% 4.8% 2.6%
Championship Game1.6% 1.9% 0.9%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Nebraska (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 287   Monmouth W 81-57 97%     1 - 0 +14.5 +0.6 +13.1
  Nov 07, 2024 308   Niagara W 96-60 98%     2 - 0 +25.4 +16.7 +8.4
  Nov 12, 2024 7   Kansas L 69-77 31%     2 - 1 +10.3 -2.4 +13.7
  Nov 16, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 86-72 97%     3 - 1 +5.0 +7.6 -2.7
  Nov 19, 2024 121   Samford W 83-75 90%     4 - 1 +7.5 +4.6 +2.8
  Nov 25, 2024 85   Colorado W 72-56 75%     5 - 1 +22.3 +4.1 +18.4
  Nov 26, 2024 32   Memphis L 63-71 52%     5 - 2 +4.9 +1.1 +2.9
  Nov 27, 2024 17   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 44%     6 - 2 +17.8 +14.6 +2.8
  Dec 04, 2024 112   @ Minnesota W 90-72 74%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +24.5 +29.8 -3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 44   Nebraska W 74-69 69%    
  Dec 17, 2024 144   Oakland W 72-60 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 92   Florida Atlantic W 83-73 84%    
  Dec 30, 2024 271   Western Michigan W 83-61 98%    
  Jan 03, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 09, 2025 75   Washington W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 12, 2025 66   @ Northwestern W 67-66 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 31   Penn St. W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 19, 2025 14   Illinois W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 58   Rutgers W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 112   Minnesota W 71-58 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 106   @ USC W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 04, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 22   Oregon W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 11, 2025 39   Indiana W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 14   @ Illinois L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 18, 2025 21   Purdue W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 21, 2025 16   @ Michigan L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 71-75 35%    
  Mar 02, 2025 35   Wisconsin W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 06, 2025 50   @ Iowa L 77-78 50%    
  Mar 09, 2025 16   Michigan W 71-70 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.7 3.3 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.5 1.6 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 2.8 0.3 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 4.3 0.9 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.9 1.4 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.7 0.3 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.1 1.1 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.8 0.2 4.4 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.4 9.0 11.5 13.3 13.6 12.6 10.4 7.3 4.7 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.4% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 92.2% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
16-4 68.9% 3.3    1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 37.2% 2.7    0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.9% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.9 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 35.8% 64.2% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 2.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.7% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.7 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.3% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.6 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.4% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 4.6 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.6% 99.8% 9.3% 90.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.1 3.4 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.6% 98.8% 5.3% 93.4% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.0 3.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.7%
11-9 13.3% 95.3% 3.3% 92.0% 7.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 3.3 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 95.2%
10-10 11.5% 84.8% 1.3% 83.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.7 2.3 1.3 0.0 1.7 84.6%
9-11 9.0% 52.7% 1.0% 51.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 0.2 4.3 52.2%
8-12 6.4% 21.3% 0.4% 20.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.2 5.0 21.0%
7-13 4.0% 2.4% 2.4% 11.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 2.4%
6-14 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 80.6% 7.1% 73.5% 6.3 2.0 4.3 7.2 8.9 10.4 10.6 10.3 9.0 7.3 5.4 4.6 0.5 19.4 79.1%