Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#18
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#15
Pace73.6#76
Improvement+0.2#164

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#62
First Shot+4.5#56
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#168
Layup/Dunks+2.9#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#222
Freethrows+2.7#41
Improvement+0.4#140

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#3
First Shot+10.2#6
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#219
Layups/Dunks+1.0#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#22
Freethrows+2.4#53
Improvement-0.2#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.9% 0.5%
#1 Seed 6.8% 8.8% 2.9%
Top 2 Seed 17.7% 22.1% 9.5%
Top 4 Seed 45.2% 52.5% 31.6%
Top 6 Seed 69.5% 76.2% 56.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.9% 95.0% 86.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.1% 94.5% 85.1%
Average Seed 4.9 4.5 5.7
.500 or above 97.0% 98.6% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 88.8% 71.8%
Conference Champion 10.4% 13.4% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four3.2% 2.2% 4.9%
First Round90.5% 94.0% 84.0%
Second Round66.6% 71.5% 57.4%
Sweet Sixteen35.6% 39.3% 28.6%
Elite Eight16.1% 18.1% 12.2%
Final Four7.0% 8.1% 4.9%
Championship Game2.9% 3.5% 1.9%
National Champion1.3% 1.5% 0.8%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 27 - 215 - 10
Quad 34 - 019 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 6   Kansas L 74-87 35%     0 - 1 +5.0 +0.5 +5.6
  Nov 12, 2021 303   Western Michigan W 90-46 98%     1 - 1 +33.1 +7.7 +24.4
  Nov 17, 2021 107   @ Butler W 73-52 75%     2 - 1 +28.2 +6.8 +21.7
  Nov 20, 2021 266   Eastern Michigan W 83-59 97%     3 - 1 +15.3 -1.9 +15.0
  Nov 24, 2021 33   Loyola Chicago W 63-61 59%     4 - 1 +13.8 -3.1 +16.9
  Nov 25, 2021 23   Connecticut W 64-60 52%     5 - 1 +17.5 -2.3 +19.8
  Nov 26, 2021 3   Baylor L 58-75 33%     5 - 2 +1.8 -1.2 +1.4
  Dec 01, 2021 37   Louisville W 73-64 71%     6 - 2 +17.4 +4.9 +12.3
  Dec 04, 2021 111   Toledo W 81-68 89%     7 - 2 +13.8 +0.0 +12.9
  Dec 08, 2021 71   @ Minnesota W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 11, 2021 92   Penn St. W 70-59 86%    
  Dec 21, 2021 114   Oakland W 76-66 83%    
  Dec 29, 2021 263   High Point W 78-55 98%    
  Jan 02, 2022 39   @ Northwestern W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 05, 2022 109   Nebraska W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 08, 2022 21   @ Michigan L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 12, 2022 71   Minnesota W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 15, 2022 39   Northwestern W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 21, 2022 28   @ Wisconsin L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 25, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 21   Michigan W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 01, 2022 60   @ Maryland W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 102   @ Rutgers W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 08, 2022 28   Wisconsin W 68-64 66%    
  Feb 12, 2022 31   Indiana W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 15, 2022 92   @ Penn St. W 67-62 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 17   Illinois W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 22, 2022 20   @ Iowa L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 1   Purdue L 71-74 38%    
  Mar 03, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 06, 2022 60   Maryland W 72-63 80%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 5.1 3.2 1.0 0.2 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.7 5.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.2 2.0 0.2 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.7 7.0 9.8 11.8 13.7 13.4 12.0 9.5 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 91.2% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
17-3 72.2% 2.7    1.8 0.9 0.1
16-4 45.1% 2.9    1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 20.6% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 5.7 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.8% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.8% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.5% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.0 1.8 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.5% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 2.7 1.0 3.1 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.0% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.4 0.3 1.9 4.4 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.4% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 4.3 0.1 0.6 2.9 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.7% 100.0% 5.6% 94.3% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 4.5 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 11.8% 99.6% 3.6% 96.0% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.6 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-10 9.8% 97.8% 1.9% 95.9% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 97.7%
9-11 7.0% 87.4% 2.1% 85.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.9 87.2%
8-12 4.7% 55.1% 1.2% 53.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 54.5%
7-13 2.8% 19.1% 0.1% 18.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 19.0%
6-14 1.5% 2.9% 0.4% 2.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.5%
5-15 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8%
4-16 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 91.9% 8.7% 83.3% 4.9 6.8 11.0 14.0 13.5 13.2 11.1 7.5 4.6 3.4 2.6 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 91.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0