Minnesota
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#112
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#146
Pace59.1#359
Improvement-0.7#224

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#163
First Shot+0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#154
Layup/Dunks+3.2#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#288
Freethrows-1.0#240
Improvement+2.1#40

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#89
First Shot+0.0#175
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#24
Layups/Dunks-1.2#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#270
Freethrows+3.3#24
Improvement-2.8#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 2.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 2.6% 0.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 9.8
.500 or above 9.7% 21.9% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 2.3% 6.5% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.6% 28.0% 50.9%
First Four0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
First Round0.8% 2.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 22 - 54 - 17
Quad 32 - 16 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 261   Oral Roberts W 80-57 87%     1 - 0 +14.4 +5.8 +10.3
  Nov 09, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha W 68-64 90%     2 - 0 -6.4 -6.8 +0.6
  Nov 13, 2024 77   North Texas L 51-54 47%     2 - 1 +1.2 -4.1 +4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 107   Yale W 59-56 60%     3 - 1 +4.0 +1.2 +3.6
  Nov 19, 2024 259   Cleveland St. W 58-47 87%     4 - 1 +2.6 -12.0 +15.4
  Nov 25, 2024 196   Central Michigan W 68-65 78%     5 - 1 -1.5 -0.2 -1.1
  Nov 28, 2024 94   Wichita St. L 66-68 OT 42%     5 - 2 +3.6 -4.2 +7.9
  Nov 29, 2024 89   Wake Forest L 51-57 40%     5 - 3 +0.0 -8.5 +7.6
  Dec 01, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 79-62 89%     6 - 3 +7.4 +10.6 -1.7
  Dec 04, 2024 27   Michigan St. L 72-90 26%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -7.7 +11.0 -20.4
  Dec 09, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 62-73 14%    
  Dec 21, 2024 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-63 95%    
  Dec 29, 2024 340   Morgan St. W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 02, 2025 21   Purdue L 62-70 23%    
  Jan 06, 2025 29   Ohio St. L 63-69 28%    
  Jan 10, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 13, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 60-74 10%    
  Jan 16, 2025 16   Michigan L 60-69 22%    
  Jan 21, 2025 50   @ Iowa L 66-76 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 22   Oregon L 61-69 24%    
  Jan 28, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 58-71 12%    
  Feb 01, 2025 75   Washington L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 04, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 63-75 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 14   Illinois L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 106   @ USC L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 18, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 54-68 10%    
  Feb 22, 2025 31   Penn St. L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 66   Northwestern L 60-62 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 44   @ Nebraska L 61-71 18%    
  Mar 05, 2025 35   Wisconsin L 64-70 30%    
  Mar 09, 2025 58   @ Rutgers L 63-72 22%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 4 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.6 0.1 4.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.2 1.9 0.1 8.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.9 3.5 0.7 0.0 14.7 16th
17th 0.4 2.5 6.8 8.4 5.3 1.1 0.0 24.6 17th
18th 2.3 7.2 10.3 8.7 4.4 1.1 0.1 34.1 18th
Total 2.3 7.6 12.9 16.4 16.9 15.0 11.6 7.7 4.8 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 22.2% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 87.8% 7.3% 80.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.8%
12-8 0.2% 65.2% 65.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 65.2%
11-9 0.6% 48.1% 1.0% 47.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 47.6%
10-10 1.3% 22.5% 1.0% 21.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 21.7%
9-11 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.1%
8-12 4.8% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.5%
7-13 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 7.7 0.0%
6-14 11.6% 11.6
5-15 15.0% 15.0
4-16 16.9% 16.9
3-17 16.4% 16.4
2-18 12.9% 12.9
1-19 7.6% 7.6
0-20 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 99.1 0.9%