Minnesota
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#71
Expected Predictive Rating+17.8#12
Pace70.2#141
Improvement+0.3#159

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#109
First Shot+3.7#73
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#285
Layup/Dunks-2.1#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#166
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement+1.4#64

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#52
First Shot+5.9#33
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#235
Layups/Dunks-0.8#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#31
Freethrows+2.6#39
Improvement-1.1#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 3.3% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 11.1% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.1% 44.3% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.7% 43.7% 22.3%
Average Seed 8.5 8.2 8.9
.500 or above 72.4% 85.4% 65.4%
.500 or above in Conference 19.4% 31.4% 13.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.1% 7.8% 20.5%
First Four5.2% 5.9% 4.8%
First Round27.3% 41.2% 19.9%
Second Round12.3% 18.9% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 5.4% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.7% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Home) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 23 - 37 - 13
Quad 34 - 111 - 14
Quad 46 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 223   UMKC W 71-56 88%     1 - 0 +9.5 +1.4 +9.3
  Nov 12, 2021 130   Western Kentucky W 73-69 67%     2 - 0 +6.4 +1.1 +5.2
  Nov 14, 2021 152   Princeton W 87-80 2OT 72%     3 - 0 +8.0 -5.4 +11.9
  Nov 19, 2021 271   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-49 92%     4 - 0 +20.1 -5.3 +24.1
  Nov 24, 2021 251   Jacksonville W 55-44 91%     5 - 0 +3.3 -12.7 +17.2
  Nov 30, 2021 179   @ Pittsburgh W 54-53 67%     6 - 0 +3.4 -8.0 +11.6
  Dec 05, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. W 81-76 30%     7 - 0 +17.5 +18.0 -0.2
  Dec 08, 2021 18   Michigan St. L 67-71 35%    
  Dec 11, 2021 21   @ Michigan L 62-72 18%    
  Dec 14, 2021 299   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-60 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 312   Green Bay W 77-58 96%    
  Dec 29, 2021 321   Alcorn St. W 78-59 97%    
  Jan 02, 2022 17   Illinois L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 09, 2022 31   @ Indiana L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 12, 2022 18   @ Michigan St. L 64-74 18%    
  Jan 16, 2022 20   Iowa L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 19, 2022 92   @ Penn St. L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 102   Rutgers W 68-63 69%    
  Jan 27, 2022 22   Ohio St. L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 30, 2022 28   @ Wisconsin L 61-70 22%    
  Feb 02, 2022 1   Purdue L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 06, 2022 20   @ Iowa L 73-83 19%    
  Feb 09, 2022 109   @ Nebraska L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 92   Penn St. W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 15, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 39   Northwestern L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 23, 2022 28   Wisconsin L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 27, 2022 31   Indiana L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 02, 2022 60   @ Maryland L 65-69 37%    
  Mar 06, 2022 39   @ Northwestern L 66-73 27%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 2.9 1.0 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 3.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 4.4 1.1 0.0 12.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 5.0 1.4 0.1 14.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.3 4.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 14.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.4 3.5 1.2 0.1 12.8 13th
14th 0.3 1.1 2.6 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.5 14th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.4 6.1 9.3 11.9 13.0 13.3 12.2 9.9 7.6 5.0 3.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 75.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 52.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.4% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.0% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.9% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 3.2% 99.1% 2.1% 97.0% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
11-9 5.0% 97.7% 1.9% 95.7% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.6%
10-10 7.6% 91.4% 0.8% 90.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.7 91.3%
9-11 9.9% 66.7% 0.8% 66.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.3 66.5%
8-12 12.2% 31.9% 0.3% 31.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.3 31.7%
7-13 13.3% 6.9% 0.3% 6.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.4 6.6%
6-14 13.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9 0.7%
5-15 11.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 11.9 0.1%
4-16 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 9.3
3-17 6.1% 6.1
2-18 3.4% 3.4
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 30.1% 0.6% 29.5% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.0 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 69.9 29.7%