Purdue
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.1#4
Expected Predictive Rating+25.6#1
Pace61.6#335
Improvement-0.4#242

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#6
First Shot+6.8#24
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#5
Layup/Dunks+2.4#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#119
Freethrows+4.3#4
Improvement-0.3#239

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#19
First Shot+4.8#50
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#8
Layups/Dunks+4.8#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#168
Freethrows+4.8#2
Improvement-0.1#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 26.5% 31.5% 20.3%
#1 Seed 74.0% 80.0% 66.6%
Top 2 Seed 98.0% 99.3% 96.4%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.2 1.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 97.2% 99.1% 94.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.2% 97.4% 96.8%
Sweet Sixteen70.4% 71.6% 68.9%
Elite Eight46.4% 48.1% 44.2%
Final Four27.4% 29.2% 25.2%
Championship Game15.5% 17.0% 13.8%
National Champion8.4% 9.4% 7.3%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 16 - 1
Quad 1b6 - 212 - 3
Quad 26 - 018 - 3
Quad 35 - 023 - 3
Quad 45 - 028 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-53 97%     1 - 0 +26.0 +3.9 +20.1
  Nov 11, 2022 315   Austin Peay W 63-44 99%     2 - 0 +8.1 -0.7 +12.9
  Nov 15, 2022 8   Marquette W 75-70 68%     3 - 0 +18.2 +9.6 +8.9
  Nov 24, 2022 23   West Virginia W 80-68 67%     4 - 0 +25.5 +14.9 +10.9
  Nov 25, 2022 13   Gonzaga W 84-66 62%     5 - 0 +32.9 +18.9 +14.7
  Nov 27, 2022 24   Duke W 75-56 68%     6 - 0 +32.2 +14.4 +19.3
  Nov 30, 2022 140   @ Florida St. W 79-69 89%     7 - 0 +14.4 +5.4 +8.8
  Dec 04, 2022 173   Minnesota W 89-70 96%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +16.2 +19.6 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2022 107   Hofstra W 85-66 93%     9 - 0 +20.0 +15.4 +5.5
  Dec 10, 2022 94   @ Nebraska W 65-62 OT 83%     10 - 0 2 - 0 +10.9 +2.4 +8.7
  Dec 17, 2022 123   Davidson W 69-61 92%     11 - 0 +10.6 -0.9 +11.7
  Dec 21, 2022 348   New Orleans W 74-53 99%     12 - 0 +6.0 +11.1 +0.0
  Dec 29, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 82-49 99.7%    13 - 0 +14.7 +11.6 +6.0
  Jan 02, 2023 20   Rutgers L 64-65 75%     13 - 1 2 - 1 +10.0 +9.0 +0.9
  Jan 05, 2023 29   @ Ohio St. W 71-69 61%     14 - 1 3 - 1 +17.4 +14.5 +3.2
  Jan 08, 2023 45   @ Penn St. W 76-63 68%     15 - 1 4 - 1 +26.2 +18.1 +9.8
  Jan 13, 2023 94   Nebraska W 73-55 92%     16 - 1 5 - 1 +20.5 +14.6 +8.5
  Jan 16, 2023 39   @ Michigan St. W 64-63 65%     17 - 1 6 - 1 +15.2 +8.1 +7.2
  Jan 19, 2023 173   @ Minnesota W 61-39 92%     18 - 1 7 - 1 +24.7 -2.2 +29.0
  Jan 22, 2023 31   Maryland W 58-55 79%     19 - 1 8 - 1 +12.7 +0.2 +13.0
  Jan 26, 2023 58   @ Michigan W 75-70 73%     20 - 1 9 - 1 +16.7 +12.8 +4.3
  Jan 29, 2023 39   Michigan St. W 77-61 81%     21 - 1 10 - 1 +24.7 +13.2 +12.4
  Feb 01, 2023 45   Penn St. W 80-60 83%     22 - 1 11 - 1 +27.7 +23.9 +7.4
  Feb 04, 2023 21   @ Indiana W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 09, 2023 30   Iowa W 79-71 79%    
  Feb 12, 2023 50   @ Northwestern W 68-63 69%    
  Feb 16, 2023 31   @ Maryland W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 19, 2023 29   Ohio St. W 74-66 79%    
  Feb 25, 2023 21   Indiana W 73-66 75%    
  Mar 02, 2023 57   @ Wisconsin W 65-59 71%    
  Mar 05, 2023 17   Illinois W 72-65 74%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 17 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.9 13.0 23.4 28.7 20.7 7.1 97.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.2 13.3 23.4 28.7 20.7 7.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 7.1    7.1
18-2 100.0% 20.7    20.7
17-3 100.0% 28.7    28.7
16-4 100.0% 23.4    22.9 0.5
15-5 97.4% 13.0    10.5 2.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 76.2% 3.9    1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1
13-7 25.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 97.2% 97.2 91.5 4.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 7.1% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.1 6.6 0.5 100.0%
18-2 20.7% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.1 18.4 2.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 28.7% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.2 23.4 5.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 23.4% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 1.3 16.5 6.7 0.2 100.0%
15-5 13.3% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 1.5 7.3 5.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.2% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 1.8 1.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.4% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-8 0.2% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.3 74.0 24.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2