Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.8#5
Expected Predictive Rating+24.1#9
Pace63.7#327
Improvement+1.3#100

Offense
Total Offense+13.8#1
First Shot+10.9#3
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#33
Layup/Dunks+4.2#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#51
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#19
First Shot+7.0#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#110
Layups/Dunks+7.2#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#278
Freethrows+6.0#1
Improvement+1.5#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.0% 8.1% 3.9%
#1 Seed 35.5% 35.8% 18.6%
Top 2 Seed 68.4% 68.7% 49.1%
Top 4 Seed 94.5% 94.7% 86.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.1% 99.2% 97.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 99.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.2 2.2 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.3% 98.3%
Conference Champion 24.8% 25.0% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Second Round97.2% 97.2% 93.9%
Sweet Sixteen73.8% 73.9% 66.4%
Elite Eight47.0% 47.2% 35.6%
Final Four26.0% 26.2% 19.2%
Championship Game13.9% 14.0% 8.9%
National Champion6.8% 6.9% 3.9%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 57 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 112 - 6
Quad 26 - 018 - 6
Quad 36 - 024 - 6
Quad 43 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 252 Evansville W 82-51 99%     1 - 0 +22.8 +18.2 +8.8
  Fri, Nov 7 137 Oakland W 87-77 97%     2 - 0 +8.7 +9.8 -1.1
  Thu, Nov 13 15 @Alabama W 87-80 55%     3 - 0 +27.5 +21.9 +5.7
  Sun, Nov 16 59 Akron W 97-79 92%     4 - 0 +23.9 +18.4 +4.8
  Thu, Nov 20 72 Memphis W 80-71 90%     5 - 0 +16.7 +16.3 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 24 Texas Tech W 86-56 73%     6 - 0 +45.2 +22.8 +24.1
  Fri, Nov 28 325 Eastern Illinois W 109-62 99.6%    7 - 0 +34.2 +29.0 +3.9
  Tue, Dec 2 147 @Rutgers W 81-65 94%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +19.9 +17.6 +3.6
  Sat, Dec 6 3 Iowa St. L 58-81 60%     8 - 1 -3.8 -0.5 -5.0
  Wed, Dec 10 96 Minnesota W 85-57 95%     9 - 1 2 - 0 +30.8 +20.0 +12.8
  Sat, Dec 13 105 Marquette W 79-59 96%     10 - 1 +21.4 +13.9 +8.9
  Sat, Dec 20 34 Auburn W 88-60 79%     11 - 1 +41.4 +25.6 +17.8
  Mon, Dec 29 124 Kent St. W 90-68 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 46 @Wisconsin W 80-72 77%    
  Wed, Jan 7 48 Washington W 80-66 90%    
  Sat, Jan 10 126 Penn St. W 87-65 98%    
  Wed, Jan 14 18 Iowa W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 38 @USC W 80-74 72%    
  Tue, Jan 20 30 @UCLA W 75-71 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 10 Illinois W 79-74 67%    
  Tue, Jan 27 29 @Indiana W 75-71 65%    
  Sun, Feb 1 94 @Maryland W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 56 Oregon W 83-67 92%    
  Tue, Feb 10 25 @Nebraska W 76-72 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 18 @Iowa W 71-69 58%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 77-79 43%    
  Fri, Feb 20 29 Indiana W 78-68 82%    
  Thu, Feb 26 16 Michigan St. W 74-67 75%    
  Sun, Mar 1 31 @Ohio St. W 78-73 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 57 @Northwestern W 78-68 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 46 Wisconsin W 83-69 89%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.6 8.4 5.4 1.6 24.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.6 11.8 9.3 3.3 0.3 32.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.9 7.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.7 0.2 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.4 0.2 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.9 8.4 13.1 16.2 17.8 16.3 11.7 5.7 1.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 95.2% 5.4    4.4 1.0
18-2 71.8% 8.4    5.1 3.1 0.1
17-3 40.3% 6.6    2.6 3.3 0.7 0.0
16-4 13.7% 2.4    0.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.8% 24.8 14.2 8.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 1.1 1.4 0.2 100.0%
19-1 5.7% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.2 4.7 1.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 11.7% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.3 8.3 3.2 0.2 100.0%
17-3 16.3% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.5 9.0 6.5 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 17.8% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 1.8 6.7 8.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.2% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.1 3.8 7.4 4.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.1% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 2.7 1.3 4.2 5.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.4% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 3.2 0.3 1.5 3.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
12-8 4.9% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 3.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 2.4% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 4.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 1.2% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.4% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.2% 95.4% 1.5% 93.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.3%
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.2 35.5 32.9 18.2 8.0 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 95.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7