Purdue
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#2
Expected Predictive Rating+22.5#2
Pace67.3#234
Improvement+0.1#158

Offense
Total Offense+13.3#2
First Shot+9.9#7
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#20
Layup/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#47
Freethrows+4.0#11
Improvement-0.2#202

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#39
First Shot+5.8#30
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#153
Layups/Dunks+7.8#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#313
Freethrows+4.1#4
Improvement+0.3#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 15.8% 17.3% 9.5%
#1 Seed 45.3% 48.7% 31.2%
Top 2 Seed 69.2% 73.2% 52.8%
Top 4 Seed 89.5% 91.7% 80.2%
Top 6 Seed 96.4% 97.5% 91.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.8% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.6% 97.8%
Average Seed 2.3 2.1 2.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.4% 95.7%
Conference Champion 51.8% 54.3% 41.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round99.4% 99.7% 98.1%
Second Round92.6% 93.5% 88.5%
Sweet Sixteen68.2% 70.0% 60.5%
Elite Eight44.4% 46.4% 35.9%
Final Four26.8% 28.6% 19.2%
Championship Game15.7% 17.1% 10.1%
National Champion8.8% 9.8% 4.8%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 111 - 5
Quad 27 - 118 - 6
Quad 34 - 022 - 6
Quad 45 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 177   Bellarmine W 96-67 97%     1 - 0 +25.4 +23.8 +2.9
  Nov 12, 2021 175   Indiana St. W 92-67 97%     2 - 0 +21.6 +13.5 +7.1
  Nov 16, 2021 206   Wright St. W 96-52 98%     3 - 0 +39.0 +13.9 +22.2
  Nov 20, 2021 43   North Carolina W 93-84 81%     4 - 0 +19.2 +13.6 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2021 8   Villanova W 80-74 58%     5 - 0 +23.4 +25.8 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2021 331   Nebraska Omaha W 97-40 99%     6 - 0 +43.0 +21.8 +24.0
  Nov 30, 2021 26   Florida St. W 78-69 81%    
  Dec 03, 2021 19   Iowa W 86-78 77%    
  Dec 09, 2021 96   @ Rutgers W 74-63 85%    
  Dec 12, 2021 63   North Carolina St. W 80-68 86%    
  Dec 18, 2021 103   Butler W 74-59 92%    
  Dec 20, 2021 350   Incarnate Word W 91-54 100.0%   
  Dec 29, 2021 235   Nicholls St. W 88-62 99%    
  Jan 03, 2022 31   Wisconsin W 72-62 82%    
  Jan 08, 2022 67   @ Penn St. W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 11, 2022 16   @ Michigan W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 14, 2022 105   Nebraska W 86-68 95%    
  Jan 17, 2022 30   @ Illinois W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 20, 2022 32   @ Indiana W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 23, 2022 44   Northwestern W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 27, 2022 19   @ Iowa W 83-81 57%    
  Jan 30, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 02, 2022 86   @ Minnesota W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 16   Michigan W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 10, 2022 30   Illinois W 81-71 81%    
  Feb 13, 2022 51   Maryland W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 16, 2022 44   @ Northwestern W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 20, 2022 96   Rutgers W 77-60 93%    
  Feb 26, 2022 22   @ Michigan St. W 73-71 58%    
  Mar 01, 2022 31   @ Wisconsin W 69-65 65%    
  Mar 05, 2022 32   Indiana W 76-66 82%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.8 11.1 13.4 11.2 6.5 2.0 51.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.5 4.1 1.4 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.6 6.5 8.9 11.9 14.5 15.6 14.8 11.3 6.5 2.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
19-1 100.0% 6.5    6.4 0.1
18-2 98.9% 11.2    10.5 0.7
17-3 90.5% 13.4    11.0 2.3 0.1
16-4 71.6% 11.1    6.8 3.6 0.7 0.1
15-5 40.2% 5.8    1.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 12.8% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.8% 51.8 39.0 10.1 2.3 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.0% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% 1.1 1.9 0.1 100.0%
19-1 6.5% 100.0% 58.7% 41.3% 1.1 5.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
18-2 11.3% 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 1.1 9.8 1.5 100.0%
17-3 14.8% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.3 11.1 3.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.6% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.5 9.0 5.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
15-5 14.5% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.9 5.2 6.4 2.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 11.9% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 2.5 2.0 4.1 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 8.9% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 3.3 0.4 1.7 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.5% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 4.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 3.6% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.2% 99.1% 7.2% 91.9% 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
9-11 1.2% 96.6% 7.6% 89.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 96.3%
8-12 0.6% 78.3% 1.7% 76.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 78.0%
7-13 0.2% 35.0% 35.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.0%
6-14 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.5% 35.9% 63.6% 2.3 45.3 23.9 12.9 7.3 4.4 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1