Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +22.6 #3
Expected Predictive Rating +24.7 #8
Pace 63.7 #324
Improvement +2.5 #60

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #1 A+ C A+ A D
Defense #13 A+ A+ A C- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #309 1.49 #2 +2.5 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #82 0.87 #54 +3.4 #40
Three Pointers 41% #176 1.20 #15 +4.1 #58
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #6 +10.1 #6
Freethrows 15.8 #266 80% #11 12.6 #173
Second Chance 40.7% #9 1.12 #94 0.46 #17
Turnovers 13.1% #15
Total Offense +14.1 #1

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #362 1.13 #139 +9.0 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #12 0.71 #139 -2.9 #345
Three Pointers 47% #52 0.82 #21 +1.7 #121
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #14 +7.8 #14
Freethrows 8.6 #1 70% #98 6.0 #1
Second Chance 23.6% #14 0.95 #85 0.23 #22
Turnovers 16.1% #217
Total Defense +8.5 #13

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2% #301 -4.7% #5
Shot Type Make Effect 22.2% #1 -11.2% #34
Possession Length 17.0 #158 19.2 #359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.09 #10
Improvement +0.4 #157 +2.1 #54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.7% 10.9% 5.7%
#1 Seed 41.6% 45.6% 27.8%
Top 2 Seed 76.3% 80.5% 61.9%
Top 4 Seed 96.6% 97.4% 93.6%
Top 6 Seed 99.6% 99.8% 99.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.0 1.8 2.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 99.1%
Conference Champion 27.0% 31.1% 13.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round98.0% 98.3% 97.1%
Sweet Sixteen76.7% 77.9% 72.4%
Elite Eight50.7% 52.5% 44.6%
Final Four29.9% 31.5% 24.3%
Championship Game16.1% 17.1% 12.7%
National Champion7.9% 8.4% 6.1%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 57 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 113 - 6
Quad 26 - 019 - 6
Quad 36 - 025 - 6
Quad 43 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 257 Evansville W 82-51 99%     18.1   1 - 0 +22.7 +18.6 +8.2
  Fri, Nov 7 141 Oakland W 87-77 98%     3.2   2 - 0 +8.0 +8.6 -0.6
  Thu, Nov 13 14 @Alabama W 87-80 56%     1.6   3 - 0 +28.1 +21.9 +6.3
  Sun, Nov 16 60 Akron W 97-79 93%     12.1   4 - 0 +24.0 +18.5 +4.9
  Thu, Nov 20 72 Memphis W 80-71 91%     1.1   5 - 0 +17.0 +17.2 +0.1
  Fri, Nov 21 23 Texas Tech W 86-56 74%     17.4   6 - 0 +45.9 +23.6 +24.0
  Fri, Nov 28 320 Eastern Illinois W 109-62 99.6%    25.1   7 - 0 +34.3 +29.9 +3.2
  Tue, Dec 2 139 @Rutgers W 81-65 95%     12.3   8 - 0 1 - 0 +20.1 +18.2 +3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 4 Iowa St. L 58-81 62%     -9.1   8 - 1 -3.6 -0.4 -4.8
  Wed, Dec 10 94 Minnesota W 85-57 96%     15.3   9 - 1 2 - 0 +30.9 +20.7 +12.3
  Sat, Dec 13 108 Marquette W 79-59 97%     15.8   10 - 1 +21.3 +13.6 +9.2
  Sat, Dec 20 30 Auburn W 88-60 78%     13.0   11 - 1 +42.3 +26.3 +18.2
  Mon, Dec 29 128 Kent St. W 101-60 98%     23.5   12 - 1 +40.0 +19.2 +17.7
  Sat, Jan 3 45 @Wisconsin W 79-71 78%    
  Wed, Jan 7 49 Washington W 80-65 92%    
  Sat, Jan 10 122 Penn St. W 87-64 99%    
  Wed, Jan 14 19 Iowa W 74-65 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 40 @USC W 81-74 73%    
  Tue, Jan 20 29 @UCLA W 75-70 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 8 Illinois W 78-73 68%    
  Tue, Jan 27 28 @Indiana W 76-71 67%    
  Sun, Feb 1 95 @Maryland W 81-67 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 55 Oregon W 83-67 93%    
  Tue, Feb 10 26 @Nebraska W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 19 @Iowa W 71-68 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 77-79 43%    
  Fri, Feb 20 28 Indiana W 79-68 83%    
  Thu, Feb 26 17 Michigan St. W 75-67 78%    
  Sun, Mar 1 31 @Ohio St. W 78-73 69%    
  Wed, Mar 4 57 @Northwestern W 78-68 82%    
  Sat, Mar 7 45 Wisconsin W 82-68 90%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.4 9.5 6.7 1.8 27.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.4 12.2 10.7 4.2 0.4 35.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.2 7.0 3.5 0.5 16.0 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 4.4 2.1 0.2 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.5 1.3 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 2.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 4.0 7.3 11.5 15.9 18.1 17.6 13.7 7.1 1.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 94.5% 6.7    5.3 1.4
18-2 69.6% 9.5    5.5 3.9 0.2
17-3 36.5% 6.4    2.5 3.3 0.7 0.0
16-4 12.4% 2.2    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1
15-5 1.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.0% 27.0 15.6 9.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 1.1 1.6 0.2 100.0%
19-1 7.1% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 1.2 6.0 1.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 13.7% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.3 9.6 3.9 0.2 100.0%
17-3 17.6% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.4 10.6 6.5 0.5 100.0%
16-4 18.1% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 1.7 8.0 8.3 1.8 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.9% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.0 4.2 7.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.5% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 2.5 1.3 4.8 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 7.3% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-8 4.0% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 3.7 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
11-9 1.8% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 4.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.9% 100.0% 100.0% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.3% 100.0% 100.0% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 2.0 41.6 34.7 14.6 5.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 86.5 13.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 90.6 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 94.3 5.7