Rutgers
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#58
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#94
Pace73.8#64
Improvement+0.9#131

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#65
First Shot+3.2#93
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#99
Layup/Dunks+4.6#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#310
Freethrows+3.3#42
Improvement+0.1#173

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#59
First Shot+4.4#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#151
Layups/Dunks+0.2#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows+2.0#68
Improvement+0.8#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 3.0% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 10.4% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 42.8% 21.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.0% 41.4% 20.4%
Average Seed 8.3 7.9 8.6
.500 or above 51.8% 70.4% 44.9%
.500 or above in Conference 32.0% 50.3% 25.3%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 2.6% 8.6%
First Four4.3% 5.2% 4.0%
First Round24.8% 40.1% 19.1%
Second Round13.1% 21.9% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 7.3% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.8% 1.1%
Final Four0.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 12
Quad 23 - 28 - 15
Quad 34 - 112 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 300   Wagner W 75-52 96%     1 - 0 +12.7 +3.1 +10.1
  Nov 11, 2024 209   St. Peter's W 75-65 91%     2 - 0 +4.7 +7.1 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2024 287   Monmouth W 98-81 95%     3 - 0 +7.5 +19.8 -12.4
  Nov 20, 2024 222   Merrimack W 74-63 92%     4 - 0 +4.7 +5.3 -0.2
  Nov 24, 2024 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-79 71%     4 - 1 +1.8 -2.8 +4.9
  Nov 26, 2024 80   Notre Dame W 85-84 OT 60%     5 - 1 +7.9 +10.2 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2024 5   Alabama L 90-95 20%     5 - 2 +13.5 +13.1 +1.0
  Nov 30, 2024 30   Texas A&M L 77-81 37%     5 - 3 +9.0 +4.3 +5.1
  Dec 07, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. L 72-78 27%    
  Dec 10, 2024 31   Penn St. L 78-79 48%    
  Dec 14, 2024 116   Seton Hall W 68-58 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 108   Princeton W 79-73 70%    
  Dec 30, 2024 192   Columbia W 85-71 90%    
  Jan 02, 2025 39   @ Indiana L 75-80 31%    
  Jan 06, 2025 35   Wisconsin L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 09, 2025 21   Purdue L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 13, 2025 18   UCLA L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 44   @ Nebraska L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 20, 2025 31   @ Penn St. L 76-82 28%    
  Jan 25, 2025 27   Michigan St. L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 66   @ Northwestern L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 01, 2025 16   Michigan L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 05, 2025 14   Illinois L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 09, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 12, 2025 50   Iowa W 82-80 58%    
  Feb 16, 2025 22   @ Oregon L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 19, 2025 75   @ Washington L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 23, 2025 106   USC W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 27, 2025 16   @ Michigan L 69-78 22%    
  Mar 04, 2025 21   @ Purdue L 70-78 24%    
  Mar 09, 2025 112   Minnesota W 72-63 78%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 2.3 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.3 3.1 2.7 0.2 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.0 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 4.3 2.7 0.2 8.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.8 2.1 0.1 9.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 2.9 0.3 9.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.6 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 6.7 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.7 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.5 8.3 10.9 12.7 13.5 12.2 10.5 8.4 5.8 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 70.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 38.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.0% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.0% 99.4% 11.0% 88.4% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 3.7% 98.1% 6.5% 91.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
12-8 5.8% 93.0% 3.6% 89.3% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 92.7%
11-9 8.4% 76.7% 2.0% 74.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.0 1.9 76.2%
10-10 10.5% 50.9% 1.4% 49.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.1 5.2 50.3%
9-11 12.2% 17.2% 0.6% 16.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.1 16.7%
8-12 13.5% 3.6% 0.4% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.0 3.2%
7-13 12.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 12.7 0.1%
6-14 10.9% 10.9
5-15 8.3% 8.3
4-16 5.5% 5.5
3-17 3.2% 3.2
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 27.0% 1.3% 25.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.2 3.6 4.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 0.5 0.0 73.0 26.0%