Wisconsin
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#28
Expected Predictive Rating+18.8#8
Pace63.4#315
Improvement+0.2#170

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#43
First Shot+2.1#117
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#30
Layup/Dunks-1.9#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#141
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement+2.1#31

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#20
First Shot+4.2#55
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#25
Layups/Dunks+4.6#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#242
Freethrows+1.8#87
Improvement-1.9#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.9% 3.9% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.7% 11.6% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 28.5% 35.0% 16.8%
Top 6 Seed 53.7% 61.4% 39.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.4% 91.9% 79.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.5% 91.2% 78.4%
Average Seed 5.9 5.5 6.7
.500 or above 97.3% 98.8% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 71.7% 79.9% 57.0%
Conference Champion 5.9% 8.0% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 2.5%
First Four4.3% 3.2% 6.2%
First Round85.3% 90.2% 76.4%
Second Round56.6% 62.1% 46.6%
Sweet Sixteen26.3% 30.1% 19.4%
Elite Eight11.0% 13.0% 7.4%
Final Four4.5% 5.4% 2.8%
Championship Game1.8% 2.2% 1.1%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Indiana (Home) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 26 - 213 - 10
Quad 34 - 117 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 337   St. Francis Brooklyn W 81-58 99%     1 - 0 +7.2 -0.4 +7.2
  Nov 12, 2021 312   Green Bay W 72-34 98%     2 - 0 +26.2 +0.9 +29.9
  Nov 15, 2021 47   Providence L 58-63 72%     2 - 1 +1.6 -8.1 +9.4
  Nov 22, 2021 76   Texas A&M W 69-58 72%     3 - 1 +17.7 +5.1 +13.2
  Nov 23, 2021 4   Houston W 65-63 29%     4 - 1 +20.6 +9.4 +11.4
  Nov 24, 2021 41   St. Mary's W 61-55 60%     5 - 1 +16.1 +5.0 +11.9
  Dec 01, 2021 99   @ Georgia Tech W 70-66 67%     6 - 1 +12.2 +8.4 +4.1
  Dec 04, 2021 67   Marquette W 89-76 78%     7 - 1 +17.5 +12.0 +4.5
  Dec 08, 2021 31   Indiana W 67-63 64%    
  Dec 11, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 65-69 36%    
  Dec 15, 2021 230   Nicholls St. W 78-59 96%    
  Dec 23, 2021 314   Morgan St. W 81-56 99%    
  Dec 29, 2021 242   Illinois St. W 78-58 97%    
  Jan 03, 2022 1   @ Purdue L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 06, 2022 20   Iowa W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 09, 2022 60   @ Maryland W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 13, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 18, 2022 39   @ Northwestern L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 21, 2022 18   Michigan St. W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 25, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 30, 2022 71   Minnesota W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 02, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 92   Penn St. W 66-56 81%    
  Feb 08, 2022 18   @ Michigan St. L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 12, 2022 102   Rutgers W 68-57 84%    
  Feb 15, 2022 31   @ Indiana L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 20, 2022 21   Michigan W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 23, 2022 71   @ Minnesota W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 102   @ Rutgers W 65-60 68%    
  Mar 01, 2022 1   Purdue L 66-71 34%    
  Mar 06, 2022 109   Nebraska W 74-62 85%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.4 1.4 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.2 1.8 0.1 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.5 2.3 0.2 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.1 7.6 10.2 12.1 13.5 13.3 11.6 9.0 6.1 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 95.5% 0.5    0.5 0.1
17-3 79.7% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 52.3% 1.9    1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 22.2% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 5.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.8% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.6% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.1% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.8 0.5 1.8 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.0% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 3.6 0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.6% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 4.5 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.4 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.3% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 5.4 0.0 0.8 2.0 4.1 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 13.5% 99.8% 3.6% 96.2% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 3.9 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 12.1% 98.8% 2.5% 96.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.0 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.8%
9-11 10.2% 90.7% 1.4% 89.3% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.9 90.5%
8-12 7.6% 65.5% 1.2% 64.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.0 2.6 65.0%
7-13 5.1% 29.4% 0.6% 28.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 29.0%
6-14 2.9% 5.9% 0.1% 5.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 5.8%
5-15 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 87.4% 6.2% 81.2% 5.9 2.9 5.8 9.5 10.3 12.7 12.5 10.1 8.0 5.5 4.1 4.0 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.6 86.5%