Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.5 26
Expected Predictive Rating +16.4 28
Pace 71.8 94
Improvement +5.2 21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 18 B+ B- A B B
Defense B 51 B A- C- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 248 B 64% 65 +0.8 145
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 352 A- 46% 27 -3.1 322
Three Pointers 53% 8 B 37% 59 +8.6 9
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 45 B+ +5.0 41
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 33
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 156 B+ 1.16 41 B- 0.36 75
Turnovers A 12.1% 4
Freethrows B- 0.34 85 B+ 77% 25 B 0.26 43
Total Offense A- +10.3 18

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 A- 50% 17 -5.3 36
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 53 D- 44% 343 +3.3 356
Three Pointers 41% 184 B- 32% 83 -1.5 122
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 47 B- -2.6 80
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 61
Second Chance A 23.5% 9 C+ 0.98 105 A- 0.23 20
Turnovers C- 15.9% 233
Freethrows B 0.26 49 C 72% 164 B 0.19 53
Total Defense B +5.2 51

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 46 18.3 315
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 73 0.12 41
Improvement +4.5 #12 +0.8 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 3% 5% 1%
Top 6 Seed 27% 40% 17%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96% 98% 94%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96% 98% 94%
Average Seed 7.3 6.8 7.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 2%
First Round96% 98% 94%
Second Round59% 65% 54%
Sweet Sixteen18% 22% 15%
Elite Eight7% 9% 5%
Final Four2% 3% 1%
Championship Game1% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 36 - 9
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 196 Campbell W 96 - 64 96% +8  78% 1 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +15 B- A+ A A+ +11 B+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 328 Northern Illinois W 97 - 72 99% +19  99% 2 - 0 B+ +11 A +13 C A+ A C- -3 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 314 Ball St. W 86 - 55 99% +19  97% 3 - 0 A +19 B+ +9 A- A- D- A +11 B- B- A-
 Mon, Nov 17 235 SIU Edwardsville W 94 - 69 97% +12  92% 4 - 0 A +18 A+ +24 A+ B- A+ D -5 C D D+
 Fri, Nov 21 21 BYU L 70 - 98 43% -13  5% 4 - 1 D -11 D+ -4 D+ C C+ D -5 C B+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 60 Providence W 104 - 83 74% +14  95% 5 - 1 A+ +30 A +13 A- B+ A A+ +13 B+ A- B
 Fri, Nov 28 49 TCU L 63 - 74 66% -11  0% 5 - 2 C +0 F+ -9 F C- D A +9 C- A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 65 Northwestern W 85 - 73 83% +16  96% 6 - 2 1 - 0 A- +17 A +12 A+ D A+ B+ +5 A F A
 Sat, Dec 6 88 Marquette W 96 - 76 87% +12  94% 7 - 2 A+ +23 A +12 A+ F+ A A +9 C+ A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 10 14 @Nebraska L 60 - 90 27% -14  16% 7 - 3 1 - 1 D+ -8 D+ -3 C- D+ A D -5 D+ D+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 31 Villanova L 66 - 76 OT 52% -7  0% 7 - 4 B- +5 C- -1 B- B+ D- B+ +6 A+ C- D-
 Mon, Dec 22 271 Central Michigan W 88 - 61 98% +15  98% 8 - 4 A +18 A- +11 A+ F B+ A- +8 A- A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 60 98% +14  95% 9 - 4 B +11 D -6 C- F A A+ +15 A+ A A
 Sat, Jan 3 8 Purdue L 73 - 89 39% -8  28% 9 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +2 D+ A B C+ +0 A B D-
 Tue, Jan 6 36 UCLA W 80 - 72 67% +12  96% 10 - 5 2 - 2 A +19 B+ +7 B+ B A+ A+ +11 A B+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan W 91 - 88 10% -2  31% 11 - 5 3 - 2 A+ +33 A+ +28 A+ A+ A B +4 B A+ D
 Tue, Jan 13 73 @Minnesota W 78 - 75 68% -1  28% 12 - 5 4 - 2 B+ +14 A+ +15 A+ C A+ C -1 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 116 Rutgers W 96 - 87 92% +13  95% 13 - 5 5 - 2 B +9 A+ +17 B- A+ A D- -8 F C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 22 109 @Penn St. W 98 - 71 80% +20  85% 14 - 5 6 - 2 A+ +34 A+ +22 A+ F+ A+ A+ +11 A+ B+ F
 Sun, Jan 25 48 USC L 71 - 73 76% -1  38% 14 - 6 6 - 3 B- +6 B+ +7 F+ A A+ C -1 A B- F
 Wed, Jan 28 73 Minnesota W 67 - 63 84% -8  13% 15 - 6 7 - 3 B +9 C +1 A F D+ A +9 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 38 Ohio St. W 92 - 82 67% +4  68% 16 - 6 8 - 3 A +21 A+ +19 A+ C+ A+ B- +2 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 34 @Indiana L 77 - 78 OT 43% -6  11% 16 - 7 8 - 4 A- +16 A- +10 B B A+ B+ +6 A+ D- D
 Tue, Feb 10 6 @Illinois W 92 - 90 OT 19% -2  34% 17 - 7 9 - 4 A+ +27 A+ +21 A+ B A+ B+ +5 D- A+ A
 Fri, Feb 13 15 Michigan St. W 92 - 71 49% +14  98% 18 - 7 10 - 4 A+ +37 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ A +9 A+ A+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 38 @Ohio St. L 80 - 81 45%
 Sun, Feb 22 28 Iowa W 77 - 74 62%
 Wed, Feb 25 81 @Oregon W 80 - 74 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 45 @Washington W 79 - 78 53%
 Wed, Mar 4 107 Maryland W 86 - 71 92%
 Sat, Mar 7 8 @Purdue L 74 - 83 21%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +15 A- +10 A B+ B B +5 B B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B A- B B+ 36% 17% 53% B B+ C+ B+ B- A B- B+ B B A- D- B- B- 34% 25% 41% B B A C+ A- C- B C B
1.23 64% 46% 37% +5 +1 1.15 31% 1.2 .36 12% .34 77% .26 1.01 50% 44% 32% -3 -1 0.95 23% 1.0 .23 16% .26 72% .24
Nov
3		 Campbell A+ A F C+ B- 41% 14% 45% B- B- B+ A+ A+ A C+ A+ A- A+ B+ F A+ B+ 44% 18% 38% B- B+ B F D+ A+ B+ D- B-
1.35 74% 25% 36% +6 +1 1.16 38% 1.5 .56 13% .31 89% .27 0.90 50% 50% 24% -7 +1 0.89 30% 1.2 .37 27% .33 76% .25
Nov
7		 Northern Illinois A A+ A+ F C+ 29% 14% 57% D+ C A A+ A+ A A+ B A+ C- C- F D- F 42% 14% 44% C F A+ A+ A+ C+ F D+ F
1.32 80% 57% 28% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.4 .58 12% .57 76% .43 0.98 56% 83% 37% +7 +1 1.19 16% 0.5 .08 23% .55 68% .37
Nov
11		 Ball St. B+ C+ F A B+ 37% 2% 61% A+ A- A+ C- A- D- F A+ F A B A+ C- B 40% 17% 44% D+ B- B C B- A- F A+ C-
1.26 63% 0% 42% +8 +2 1.24 47% 1.0 .47 22% .15 100% .15 0.80 47% 0% 33% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.9 .18 20% .39 57% .22
Nov
17		 SIU Edwardsville A+ B- C+ A+ A+ 28% 9% 63% B+ A+ B C- B- A+ A- A+ A+ D A+ F D C 41% 27% 31% D C B F D D+ A F C+
1.42 60% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.19 38% 0.9 .35 6% .39 88% .34 1.04 38% 50% 38% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.4 .34 17% .20 91% .18
Nov
21		 BYU D+ A+ F F D 20% 26% 54% C+ D+ C C- C C+ A+ D A+ D A+ F F+ C+ 27% 15% 58% D+ C A D+ B+ D- F C- F
0.94 82% 21% 24% -7 -2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .42 65% .27 1.31 47% 63% 41% +6 0 1.15 30% 1.3 .38 11% .44 76% .33
Nov
27		 Providence A A- A+ C B+ 36% 9% 55% A- A- B B+ B+ A B+ D- B- A+ A+ F D- B+ 38% 21% 41% B B+ A+ F A- B A+ D+ A+
1.27 65% 50% 34% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .37 10% .33 67% .22 1.02 46% 54% 38% +1 0 1.05 19% 1.6 .31 17% .22 80% .18
Nov
28		 TCU F+ F A+ F F 29% 20% 51% C- F D B- C- D B+ A+ A+ A A- B- F D+ 47% 27% 25% B C- A+ A+ A+ B A- A+ A
0.85 40% 50% 23% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.1 .24 23% .32 89% .28 1.00 50% 33% 57% +4 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 18% .26 63% .16
Dec
3		 Northwestern A B+ A+ A- A+ 33% 16% 51% B- A+ C+ F D A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ C- F A+ A- 32% 32% 36% A A F+ F+ F A F+ F F
1.22 65% 50% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.7 .23 10% .34 86% .29 1.05 63% 50% 17% -4 -2 0.90 35% 1.5 .52 17% .40 83% .33
Dec
6		 Marquette A A- D+ A+ A+ 28% 11% 60% C+ A+ F+ F F+ A A+ A A+ A C A+ C- C+ 49% 10% 41% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B A+ A+
1.22 67% 33% 44% +11 0 1.25 24% 0.8 .18 15% .44 83% .36 0.97 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.03 17% 0.5 .09 10% .27 47% .13
Dec
10		 Nebraska D+ A+ F F D 25% 19% 57% B+ C- C+ F D+ A D+ A+ C+ D F A+ D- D 38% 11% 51% C- D+ C F+ D+ C+ C+ F D+
0.86 77% 20% 23% -8 -1 0.85 27% 0.6 .17 16% .19 82% .15 1.29 81% 17% 39% +11 +1 1.25 28% 1.3 .34 14% .25 87% .22
Dec
19		 Villanova C- F C A+ C+ 39% 16% 45% B+ B- F+ A+ B+ D- D F D- B+ A+ D C+ A 24% 26% 50% A+ A+ B- D- C- D- C B C
0.96 42% 38% 41% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.7 .36 23% .19 60% .11 1.10 46% 43% 33% -2 -2 0.94 33% 1.1 .38 12% .31 68% .21
Dec
22		 Central Michigan A- A+ F A+ A+ 41% 4% 54% B+ A+ D F F B+ A D B+ A- B- B- A+ A- 33% 37% 31% A A- A+ F A+ F C- C- C-
1.31 79% 0% 48% +18 +2 1.43 31% 0.8 .24 13% .45 65% .29 0.91 53% 37% 25% -6 -2 0.85 6% 2.5 .15 12% .29 71% .20
Dec
30		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D A A+ F C- 47% 14% 39% B- C- F F F A A+ F A- A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 33% 29% 38% B A+ B- A+ A A F D+ F
1.07 71% 57% 20% 0 +2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 12% .49 63% .30 0.80 35% 47% 15% -16 -1 0.67 28% 0.8 .22 20% .35 71% .25
Jan
3		 Purdue C+ D- A+ F D- 40% 18% 42% A D+ A- B+ A B A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ C- A A- 28% 36% 36% A+ A B+ C- B D- C B+ C+
1.02 50% 78% 14% -8 0 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 15% .43 81% .35 1.24 75% 43% 29% +4 -3 1.03 33% 1.2 .40 10% .29 68% .20
Jan
6		 UCLA B+ F A+ C+ A- 27% 17% 56% C+ B+ F A+ B A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F D- A+ A 32% 38% 30% A- A A C- B+ C D A+ C+
1.12 46% 75% 33% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.8 .34 11% .43 74% .32 1.01 82% 45% 6% -2 -3 0.92 26% 1.2 .31 14% .37 65% .24
Jan
10		 Michigan A+ B A+ A+ A+ 31% 13% 56% A A+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+ B B+ F C B+ 51% 11% 38% C+ B A+ A+ A+ D C- F F
1.26 56% 57% 41% +8 0 1.19 26% 1.9 .48 14% .37 78% .29 1.22 56% 67% 35% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 12% .38 92% .35
Jan
13		 Minnesota A+ A D A+ A+ 20% 18% 62% C A+ D- A+ C A+ B+ A A- C D+ F B+ D- 38% 27% 35% A D+ A+ C+ A+ F D B- D+
1.21 70% 33% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.2 .24 11% .31 78% .24 1.16 67% 62% 29% +7 -1 1.15 13% 1.0 .13 8% .40 67% .27
Jan
17		 Rutgers A+ B+ F B- B- 33% 14% 53% B- B- D A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ D- D- F D F 15% 36% 49% A+ F C C+ C+ D+ B F+ C+
1.32 65% 14% 37% +1 +1 1.06 27% 2.3 .60 12% .45 90% .41 1.19 63% 55% 37% +9 -4 1.13 34% 1.1 .38 14% .30 79% .24
Jan
22		 Penn St. A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 37% 10% 53% B A+ A- F F+ A+ C+ C- C+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ 27% 33% 40% A+ A+ B- B+ B+ F D C+ D+
1.38 73% 33% 45% +14 +1 1.32 37% 0.7 .26 10% .23 73% .17 1.00 40% 44% 27% -7 -2 0.84 27% 1.1 .29 10% .36 74% .27
Jan
25		 USC B+ F+ A F F 33% 11% 56% B F+ A B+ A A+ A- B+ A C C- B+ A A 29% 25% 46% B A C B B- F B C- B-
1.11 44% 50% 23% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 9% .34 80% .27 1.14 64% 33% 27% -4 -1 0.92 35% 0.9 .32 8% .39 74% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Minnesota C F D A+ A- 26% 7% 67% A- A F F F D+ A+ B- A+ A A+ F F D+ 35% 9% 57% D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.05 45% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.6 .10 20% .43 73% .31 0.99 44% 75% 42% +5 +1 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 17% .21 55% .11
Jan
31		 Ohio St. A+ A A+ C+ A+ 47% 11% 42% A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+ B A+ A B- A+ D B- A+ 25% 27% 47% B A+ C+ C C+ F A- F B-
1.31 67% 67% 33% +7 +2 1.19 23% 1.3 .30 7% .32 90% .29 1.17 47% 50% 32% -1 -2 0.97 33% 1.1 .36 10% .28 89% .25
Feb
7		 Indiana A- F A+ B+ B 35% 16% 49% B+ B A- D+ B A+ F A+ D- B+ C+ F A+ A+ 50% 17% 33% C A+ D+ F+ D- D A F B+
1.13 37% 56% 37% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 10% .20 92% .18 1.14 59% 67% 17% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 12% .25 87% .22
Feb
10		 Illinois A+ A- F A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% A- A+ A- C- B A+ B B- B B+ F A- F F 25% 16% 58% A- D- A+ C- A+ A C A+ A
1.25 63% 21% 45% +7 -1 1.14 32% 0.9 .27 5% .20 71% .14 1.23 79% 33% 44% +13 0 1.27 28% 1.3 .34 18% .31 58% .18
Feb
13		 Michigan St. A+ A+ C- B+ A+ 25% 17% 58% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A A+ D C+ A 17% 39% 44% A+ A+ A A+ A+ F+ A F B-
1.35 69% 33% 37% +4 -1 1.10 31% 1.7 .54 9% .37 74% .27 1.04 33% 43% 33% -3 -4 0.89 34% 0.6 .20 13% .27 94% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 1.9 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 5.8 0.7 8.3 3rd
4th 0.8 9.6 5.2 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 13.9 16.6 1.7 33.1 5th
6th 0.3 9.6 15.2 2.5 0.0 27.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 5.1 0.8 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 0.9 2.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.3 4.5 16.6 30.8 30.6 14.4 2.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.9% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 100.0%
15-5 14.4% 99.7% 3.8% 95.9% 6.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 5.2 3.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 99.7%
14-6 30.6% 98.5% 1.9% 96.6% 6.8 0.1 0.3 2.6 7.4 12.2 6.1 1.3 0.1 0.5 98.4%
13-7 30.8% 96.7% 1.1% 95.6% 7.7 0.0 0.7 3.1 9.2 10.5 5.0 1.2 0.1 1.0 96.6%
12-8 16.6% 91.3% 0.8% 90.5% 8.5 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.0 4.7 2.5 0.4 1.4 91.2%
11-9 4.5% 80.5% 0.4% 80.1% 9.4 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.9 80.4%
10-10 0.3% 53.1% 6.3% 46.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 50.0%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.0% 1.8% 94.2% 7.3 4.0 95.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 3.9 4.5 36.4 31.8 22.7 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 4.9 1.1 6.4 19.1 50.0 22.3 1.1