Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#36
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#29
Pace68.5#194
Improvement-5.9#364

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#25
First Shot+9.4#8
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#280
Layup/Dunks+3.7#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#79
Freethrows+0.8#133
Improvement-1.7#307

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#61
First Shot+6.9#17
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#311
Layups/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#22
Freethrows+3.5#16
Improvement-4.1#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.6% 3.2% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 11.2% 13.3% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 25.1% 28.7% 13.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.4% 77.0% 61.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.2% 74.9% 59.9%
Average Seed 7.5 7.3 8.3
.500 or above 98.3% 99.1% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 90.6% 74.9%
Conference Champion 6.6% 8.0% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four7.4% 7.0% 8.6%
First Round69.6% 73.4% 57.4%
Second Round40.8% 44.0% 30.5%
Sweet Sixteen15.5% 17.4% 9.6%
Elite Eight6.3% 7.0% 3.8%
Final Four2.4% 2.7% 1.5%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 38 - 118 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 189   Radford W 96-56 93%     1 - 0 +35.7 +18.8 +16.5
  Nov 08, 2024 117   Murray St. W 83-68 88%     2 - 0 +14.8 +10.4 +4.6
  Nov 11, 2024 221   Gardner-Webb W 83-64 95%     3 - 0 +12.8 +4.1 +7.8
  Nov 15, 2024 45   West Virginia W 86-62 67%     4 - 0 +31.9 +14.7 +16.3
  Nov 18, 2024 346   VMI W 93-48 99%     5 - 0 +29.7 +15.2 +15.4
  Nov 22, 2024 47   LSU W 74-63 58%     6 - 0 +21.3 +9.0 +12.8
  Nov 24, 2024 35   Wisconsin L 75-81 49%     6 - 1 +6.5 +8.8 -2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. W 91-90 OT 36%     7 - 1 +17.0 +18.7 -1.8
  Dec 04, 2024 15   @ Mississippi St. L 57-90 29%     7 - 2 -14.8 -5.6 -10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 129   @ Virginia Tech W 75-67 76%    
  Dec 11, 2024 207   Eastern Kentucky W 85-67 95%    
  Dec 21, 2024 139   Sam Houston St. W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 01, 2025 109   California W 83-71 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 93   Stanford W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 07, 2025 2   @ Duke L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 43   Louisville W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 15, 2025 61   @ Florida St. W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 28   Clemson W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 96   @ Syracuse W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 17   North Carolina W 82-81 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 03, 2025 90   Virginia W 68-59 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 17   @ North Carolina L 79-84 31%    
  Feb 11, 2025 62   @ SMU W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 87   Miami (FL) W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 18, 2025 96   Syracuse W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 80   @ Notre Dame W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 25, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 82-70 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 43   @ Louisville L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 05, 2025 72   @ North Carolina St. W 73-72 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 145   Boston College W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.6 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.7 4.0 1.0 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.0 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.0 8.6 11.6 13.3 14.6 13.2 10.8 7.7 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 96.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
18-2 76.9% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0
17-3 50.9% 2.3    1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 22.0% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 4.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.6% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.6 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.7% 99.7% 17.2% 82.5% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 10.8% 99.0% 13.6% 85.4% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
14-6 13.2% 96.2% 9.5% 86.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.8%
13-7 14.6% 90.1% 5.1% 85.0% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.2 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 1.4 89.6%
12-8 13.3% 77.4% 4.6% 72.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 3.1 2.0 0.1 3.0 76.3%
11-9 11.6% 61.2% 2.5% 58.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 2.4 0.1 4.5 60.2%
10-10 8.6% 41.6% 1.8% 39.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 0.1 5.0 40.5%
9-11 6.0% 16.7% 0.9% 15.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 5.0 16.0%
8-12 3.8% 3.9% 0.7% 3.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 3.2%
7-13 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.4%
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 73.4% 7.6% 65.8% 7.5 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.2 6.3 7.6 8.9 9.8 10.5 10.6 8.1 0.4 26.6 71.2%